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How to Reduce Analytical Bias by Applying Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)

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How to Reduce Analytical Bias by Applying Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)

  1. 1. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Poweredby How to Reduce Analytical Bias by Applying Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) A Complimentary Webinar from Aurora WDC 12:00 Noon Eastern /// 24 July 2013 ~ featuring ~ Dan Mulligan Michel Bernaiche
  2. 2. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Poweredby Dan Mulligan Dan Mulligan is on the faculty of the Academy of Competitive Intelligence (ACI) and has presented at SCIP conferences every year since 2007. At the 2011 SCIP Conference in Orlando, Florida, he was recognized with the “Best Conference Presentation”. His corporate experience includes work in the medical, pharmaceutical, manufacturing, and consulting industries. Through the Dale Carnegie organization, he trained, taught, and consulted with over 200 of the Fortune 500 companies over the past 19 years, focusing on leadership and communications. Email: DanMulligan82@gmail.com The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking community powered by Aurora WDC, our clients, partners and other friends and dedicated to exploring how to apply intelligence methods to solve real- world business problems. Apply for a free 30-day trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com or learn more about Aurora at http://AuroraWDC.com – see you next time!
  3. 3. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Poweredby α Use the Questions pane on your GoToWebinar control panel and all questions will be answered in the second half of the hour. α You are welcome to tweet any comments on Twitter where we are monitoring the hashtag #IntelCollab or eavesdrop via http://tweetchat.com/room/IntelCollab α Slides will be available after the webinar for embedding and sharing via http://slideshare.net/IntelCollab α To view the recording and download the PPT file, please register for a trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com. Questions, Commentary & Content
  4. 4. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Poweredby Agenda ► Competitive Intelligence Process ► Analytic problems in CI ► Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) ► Examples ► Summary, Q&A and Discussion
  5. 5. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Poweredby Purpose of Intelligence
  6. 6. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Poweredby How?
  7. 7. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Poweredby Information and Intelligence 7Introduction to Intelligence Information Intelligence Scattered Bits of Data Evaluated, Filtered, Distilled, Analyzed Information Unrefined End Product of a Complex Process Raw & Unfinished Basis for Action
  8. 8. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Poweredby The Intelligence Process 8
  9. 9. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Poweredby KITs + 1 ►Aurora and Dr. Craig Fleisher ►“KITs + 1: The Next Generation of Intelligence Analysis” ►http://aurorawdc.com/videos/
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  13. 13. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Poweredby Blindspots are caused by faulty internal or external assumptions.
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  19. 19. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Poweredby Analysis Of Competing Hypotheses ►Richards J. Heuer Jr. ►45yr. CIA veteran ►Developed ACH after studying cognitive psychology Richards J. Heuer Jr. Photo courtesy the Center for the Study of Intelligence
  20. 20. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Poweredby Analysis Of Competing Hypotheses Cognitive Biases Analysis Of Competing Hypotheses Scientific Method
  21. 21. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Poweredby Analysis Of Competing Hypotheses • Reduces cognitive biases • Logical • Auditable Strengths • Snapshot in time • Dependent on validity of evidence • Time consuming Weaknesses
  22. 22. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Poweredby Clear Estimate? Simple Hypotheses Test Target Collection Increase Complexity YesNo Structured Analysis Of Competing Hypotheses
  23. 23. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Poweredby • Easy to think, write, collaborate • Easy to present • Easy to defend • Easy to supervise Structured Analysis Of Competing Hypotheses
  24. 24. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Poweredby Free ACH Software
  25. 25. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Poweredby PARC Software ►Developed by the Palo Alto Research Center (PARC) ►ACH2.0.3 ►Developed in collaboration with Richards J. Heuer, Jr. D d http://www2.parc.com/istl/projects/ach/ach.html
  26. 26. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Poweredby http://www2.parc.com/istl/projects/ach/ach.html
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  35. 35. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Poweredby SWOT Strengths Opportunities Weaknesses Threats
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  41. 41. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Poweredby Analysis Of Competing Hypotheses • Reduces cognitive biases • Logical • Defensible • Great for Collaboration • Auditable
  42. 42. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Poweredby Richards Heuer’s ACH ►https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the- study-of-intelligence/csi- publications/books-and- monographs/psychology-of-intelligence- analysis/art11.html
  43. 43. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Poweredby ►Robert Steel ►Vice Chairman, Goldman Sachs ►“Information costs money.” ►“Intelligence makes money.” Herring (2006)
  44. 44. The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Poweredby Dan Mulligan Thank you! Now how about a little Q&A? Email: DanMulligan82@gmail.com The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking community powered by Aurora WDC, our clients, partners and other friends and dedicated to exploring how to apply intelligence methods to solve real- world business problems. Apply for a free 30-day trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com or learn more about Aurora at http://AuroraWDC.com – see you next time!

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