Foot and mouth disease in the Borana Plateau of Ethiopia: Vaccination benefit-cost analysis

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Presented by Beyene, T.J., Abegaz, B.A., Chibsa, T.R. and Pötzsch, C.J. at the PENAPH First Technical Workshop, Chiangmai, Thailand, 11 – 13 December 2012.

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Foot and mouth disease in the Borana Plateau of Ethiopia: Vaccination benefit-cost analysis

  1. 1. Foot and Mouth Disease in the Borena Plateau ofEthiopia: Vaccination Benefit-Cost AnalysisTariku J Beyene, BAAbegaz, TR Chibsa, CJ Pötzsch
  2. 2. INTRODUCTIONFoot and Mouth Disease• Caused by virus of the genus Aphthovirus, familyPicornaviridae.• 7 serotypes, namely: O, A, C, South African Territories (SAT)1, SAT 2, SAT 3 and Asia1.• It causes considerable losses of milk yield and weight gain• disease of production.PENAPH technical workshop, December 11-13, 2012, Chaing Mai, Thailand
  3. 3. • FMD slows economic growth by severely limiting attractiveand international trade opportunities with the highest prices foranimal products (James and Rushton, 2002).PENAPH technical workshop, December 11-13, 2012, Chaing Mai, Thailand
  4. 4. • Some seroprevalence estimates for FMD in pastoralist herds,includes- Orma herds in Kenya (9%), and Maasai and Sukuma herds inTanzania (9.5%) (Catley et al. 2004),- Borena in Ethiopia (21%) (Rufael et al. 2008), 53.6 %(Mekonnen et al. 2011)Source: G. Ayelet et al, The status of FMDin Ethiopia, The Global control of FMD - Tools, ideas andIdeals – Erice, Italy 14-17 October 2008.PENAPH technical workshop, December 11-13, 2012, Chaing Mai, Thailand
  5. 5. • FMD in the pastoralists, control is given very low priority bythe policy makers.• This status of the disease is compounded by:- relatively high vaccine cost,- relatively low vaccine efficacy of vaccines.- short duration of conferred immunity.- high mobility of pastoralists.- Herder’s diagnosing ability is high (Rufael et al.,2008).• It is increasingly recognized that economic analysis shouldhelp decisions on animal disease control and that benefit-costanalysis is a commonly used analytical framework (Rushton etal., 1999).PENAPH technical workshop, December 11-13, 2012, Chaing Mai, Thailand
  6. 6. Objectives• To estimate the benefit-cost ratio of Foot and Mouth Diseasevaccination and its sensitivity in Borena pastoral setting.PENAPH technical workshop, December 11-13, 2012, Chaing Mai, Thailand
  7. 7. MATERIALS AND METHODSStudy area and sample size determination• February - October 2011 in two districts from Borena zone -namely Arero and Miyo.• 2 districts are selected from the existing 13 districts of the zonebased on most recent FMD outbreak history.• In each selected districts 5 PA were randomly selected.• From each PA about 10-12 herd owners were selected for theparticipatory appraisal as ‘informants/discussants’ and 6 keyinformants.PENAPH technical workshop, December 11-13, 2012, Chaing Mai, Thailand
  8. 8. Study methodologya. Participatory appraisal methods –As described by Catley, (2005) and later modified by Barasa etal., (2008) with “triangulation”.PE methods used Information/data collected- Focus group discussion-Semi structured interview- Proportional piling-Matrix scoringAge classification,Benefits derived from cattle,Major cattle diseases,Age and purpose based herdstructure,Disease incidences and relatedMortalities,Market value of cattle and milkFMD treatment and control optionsPENAPH technical workshop, December 11-13, 2012, Chaing Mai, Thailand
  9. 9. b. Benefit-cost ratio modeling• by modifying models developed by Barasa et al., (2008)Mathematical equations/models/ used in the estimation of losses due to FMD.BenefitsMortality losses: CmoLosses due to acute disease affecting all age groups DGa= G1234*Da1234*S1234Losses from chronic disease affecting all groups DGc= G1234*Dc1234*S1234Total mortality costs: Cmo= (DGa + DGc )*(N)Milk production losses: CmiShort term milk losses from acute FMD, recovering cases. CaMi= (G4*L4*Pa4*Mt*Md*Ms)Long-term milk losses due to cow deaths CdMi= ((L4+Pr4)*(Da4+Dc4))*Ml/2*Mh*MsLong term milk loss due to chronic FMD CcMi=((L4+Pr4) - Da4)*Pc4*Mh*Ml/2*MsMilk loss costs: Cmi = (Cami+Cdmi+Ccmi)*NPENAPH technical workshop, December 11-13, 2012, Chaing Mai, Thailand
  10. 10. Calf crop lossesLoss of calves from pregnant cows dying from acute diseaseCLpca = (Pr4*Pra*AbFMD)+ (Pr4*Pra*(1-Ab4)*CdID)Loss of calves from pregnant cows dying from chronicdiseaseCLpcc = (Pr4*Prc*AbFMD)+ (Pr4*Prc*(1-Ab4)*CdID)Loss due to extended calving interval in calf cropCLECI = Pr4*(Pa4* (Exa/CI)) + Pc4*(Exc/CI))Calf crop loss, is therefore, CCL = (CLpca + CLpcc +CLECI)*NPENAPH technical workshop, December 11-13, 2012, Chaing Mai, Thailand
  11. 11. Costs based on Kenyan vet vaccine centre, consultation with BZPDB basedon experience of currently ongoing CBPP mass vaccination.• Cost of vaccine• Equipments.• Establishment of field camp.• Cold chain and its maintenance.• Field staff perdium.• Supervision and management costs.• Fuel cost for transportation.• Contingency administrative costs.PENAPH technical workshop, December 11-13, 2012, Chaing Mai, Thailand
  12. 12. • In addition, sensitivity analysis was done by feeding values into benefit-cost model with expectation of changes in marketprices.• The benefit-cost ratio equation models of FMD vaccinationcalculated as benefit/cost.• The data collected was entered in to MS Excel sheet spread(Microsoft office Excel 2007).PENAPH technical workshop, December 11-13, 2012, Chaing Mai, Thailand
  13. 13. RESULT AND DISCUSSIONFMD treatment and control options• Livestock keepers commonly use traditional methods (saltysoil ’Kula’), antibiotic treatment, or simply “taking no action”.• Most (68%) of FMD outbreaks left uncontrolled with noaction- self limit.• All of the respondents indicated that they never vaccinatedtheir cattle against FMD.• Other options like movement control seems to be difficult withvery porous borders where legal enforcement is difficult andrequires collaboration with neighboring regional states andcountries.PENAPH technical workshop, December 11-13, 2012, Chaing Mai, Thailand
  14. 14. Incidences and mortality due to FMDVariable Mean (%) (CI) (95%)Overall incidence (all age groups) acute FMD 22.1 (18.8, 25.4)Overall incidence (all age groups) chronic FMD 4.9 (2.4, 7.3)Incidence of acute FMD G4 age group 13.3 (10.0, 16.6)Incidence of chronic FMD G4 age group 6.6 (3.8, 9.4)Overall mortality (all age groups) acute FMD 8.5 (7.7, 9.2)Overall mortality (all age groups) chronic FMD 0.0 (0.0, 0.0)Mortality due to acute FMD by age group:Jabi/Watiye (<=1 yr)) 29.6 (22.3, 26.8)Agoro (1-2 yrs)) 9.7 (5.5, 13.8)Lamacha (2-4 years)) 4.3 (2.2, 6.4)Korma Sanga/Hawicha (>=4 yrs)) 3.7 (1.8, 5.5)Proportion of lactating cows in the herd 40.2 (33.7, 46.7)Proportion of pregnant cows in G4 66.5 (60.2, 72.0)Proportion of pregnant in the herd 30.7 (25.8, 35.6)Normal calf survival rate 86.0 (81.0, 91.0)Proportion of abortion 43.0 (31.8, 54.2)Calving interval (month) 19.6 (14.3, 24.9)Volume of milk loss (liters) per day per acute FMD case. 0.9 (0.7, 1.3)Daily volume (liters) of milk produced per healthy cow. 1.35 (1.1, 1.6)Duration (days) of reduced milk production per acute FMD case. 34.0 (22, 45)Lactation period (days) 234 (163, 306)Sales value of milk (USD/liter) 0.7 (0.6, 0.9)PENAPH technical workshop, December 11-13, 2012, Chaing Mai, Thailand
  15. 15. Summary of losses related to FMDSummary variable Cost (USD) (% of direct loss)LossesLosses due to mortality:Acute FMD 10,799,081.32Chronic FMD 0.00Total loss from mortality 10,799,081.32 (33.3)Losses due to reduced milk production:Recovering acute FMD 970,875.10Recovering chronic FMD 3,715,226.92Long term due to cow death 17,003,216.56Total loss from milk reduction 21,689,318.58 (67.7)Total value of all losses 32,488 399.90Calf crop loss 113,379 calvesCostsTotal cost of vaccination program 3,561,870.1PENAPH technical workshop, December 11-13, 2012, Chaing Mai, Thailand
  16. 16. Estimated costs of biannual foot-and-mouth disease vaccination of the entire (85%) cattlepopulationItem Cost (in USD)___Vaccine cost a 3,274,153.00Vaccination equipment 25,111.00Cold chain equipment and maintenance 40,450.80Field staff, supervisor and management perdium 15,077.70Transportation 5,980.00Establishment and support to field camp 31,484.70Sub-total 3,392,257.28Operational contingency of 5% 169,612.86Total 3,561,870.14aAssumes the use of quadrivalent FMD vaccine for serotypes SAT 1, SAT 2, A and O, andbiannual vaccination from Kenya veterinary vaccine center.PENAPH technical workshop, December 11-13, 2012, Chaing Mai, Thailand
  17. 17. Benefit-cost and sensitivity analysisBenefit-cost of FMD vaccination(positive/negative proportional change relative to current field model in bracket)Changes in diseaseseverity andvaccination costsCurrentfield modelMarket values of cattle and milk increase by Calf crop lostin number25% 50% 75% 100%Field model 9.1 11.40(25) 13.68(50) 15.96(75) 18.24(100) 113,379 calvesFMD incidence andmortalityReduced by 25%Reduced by 50%Reduced by 75%6.05(-34)4.03(-55)2.02(-78)8.55(-6)5.71(-37)2.86(-68)10.26(13)8.5(-7)7.1(-21)11.97(32)7.1(-4)7.26(-20)13.68(51)9.12(0)7.47(-18)83,578(-25)55,725(-50)27,943(-75)Vaccination costsIncreased by 25%Increased by 50%Increased by 75%Increased by 100%7.30(-20)6.08(-33)5.21(-43)4.56(-50)9.12(0)7.60(-16)6.52(-28)5.70(-37)10.95(20)9.12(0)7.82(-14)6.84(-25)12.77(40)10.64(17)9.12(0)7.98(-12)14.59(60)12.16(34)10.42(15)9.12(0)PENAPH technical workshop, December 11-13, 2012, Chaing Mai, Thailand
  18. 18. Conclusion• Participatory techniques are very helpful to collect data foreconomic analysis which is almost impossible using theavailable conventional recorded data.• FMD is a disease that causes losses associated with the deathof animal, production loss and affects people’s social as wellas economic well-being.• The benefit-cost ratio of vaccination was found to be positiveand less sensitive to vaccination costs change.PENAPH technical workshop, December 11-13, 2012, Chaing Mai, Thailand
  19. 19. • It is not expected for a vaccination program to lead to a diseasefree status in the region soon, but reduced calf mortality ratesand disease incidence in adult animals will lead to increasedcalf survival and less impact on milk production.• This would imply less stress on people’s lives, food securityand socio-cultural harmony.• PE is a preferred tool to generate quantitative data forfacility and data resource poor regions/areas.PENAPH technical workshop, December 11-13, 2012, Chaing Mai, Thailand
  20. 20. Acknowledgments• Tufts University/Feinstein International Center, Addis Ababaregional office.• Co-authors: Admassu Berhanu (Tufts), Tesfaye Rufael(NAHDIC), Carsten Pötzsch (Vet.Epi.consultant, Germany)• Drs A. Catley, M. Barasa, and the Borena people.• PENAPH- ILRI, CMU-FVMPENAPH technical workshop, December 11-13, 2012, Chaing Mai, Thailand
  21. 21. PENAPH technical workshop, December 11-13, 2012, Chaing Mai, ThailandThank you

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