CAADP M&E FRAMEWORK AND MODELING IN WEST AFRICA
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CAADP M&E FRAMEWORK AND MODELING IN WEST AFRICA

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SAKSS TO RESAKSS,CAADP BASIC TARGETS AND PRINCIPLES,COUNTRY CAAPD CYCLE,MODELING AGRICULTURE,CAADP M&E FRAMEWORK,PROSPECTS

SAKSS TO RESAKSS,CAADP BASIC TARGETS AND PRINCIPLES,COUNTRY CAAPD CYCLE,MODELING AGRICULTURE,CAADP M&E FRAMEWORK,PROSPECTS

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CAADP M&E FRAMEWORK AND MODELING IN WEST AFRICA CAADP M&E FRAMEWORK AND MODELING IN WEST AFRICA Presentation Transcript

  • CAADP M&E FRAMEWORK AND MODELING IN WEST AFRICA By Mbaye Yade Sub Coordinator ReSAKSS WA R4D Week 2010: Mini-Symposium on Outcomes and Impact Assessments ----------------------------------- IBADAN, NIGERIA, 24 NOVEMBER 2010 1
  • OUTLINE• SAKSS TO RESAKSS• CAADP BASIC TARGETS AND PRINCIPLES• ReSAKSS => CAADP• COUNTRY CAAPD CYCLE• MODELING AGRICULTURE• CAADP M&E FRAMEWORK• 1ST COMPREHENSIVE M&E REPORT• PROSPECTS 2
  • FROM SAKSS TO ReSAKSS• SAKSS: – INITIATIVE FROM CG-SYSTEM – FOCUS ON STRATEGIC ANALYSIS AND SOME COUNTRIES – SUPPLY DRIVEN• FROM 2006/07 FOCUSED ON CAADP IMPLEMENTATION => ReSAKSS: – GREATER LINK TO REC’S – 3 NODES COVERING 3 REC’S WITH CONTINENT WIDE COORDINATION – TAKE ADVANTAGE OF EXISTING NETWORKS AND CAPACITIES – BROADER COVERAGE 3
  • Some basic Targets and Principles of CAADP• CAADP as a strategic framework by which to guide country development efforts and partnerships in the agricultural sector: • agriculture led growth for poverty reduction; • increased funding of agriculture (10%) and • at least 6% agriculture growth – all targeted at achieving MGD1 and other welfare targets 4
  • Some basic Targets and Principles of CAADP• Greater efficiency and consistency in the planning and execution of sector policies and programmes• Increased effectiveness in translating government expenditures into public goods and services, and• Expertise and mechanisms to regularly and transparently measure performance against targets and keep policies and programmes on track. 5
  • ReSAKSS AS SUPPORT OF CAADP IMPLEMENTATION• 3 Regional ReSAKSS nodes to: – Facilitate access by the RECs and their member states to policy-relevant analyses of the highest quality  improve policymaking, – Track progress, document success, and derive lessons that can feed into the review and learning processes associated with the implementation of the CAADP agenda 6
  • ReSAKSS AS SUPPORT OF CAADP IMPLEMENTATION – (1) mobilize existing expertise , capacities and knowledge => design, implementation, and evaluation of CAADP programs. – (2) provide assistance to countries in the establishment of national knowledge system nodes to support CAADP implementation 7
  • ReSAKSS AS SUPPORT OF CAADP IMPLEMENTATION• Work with the national nodes to provide relevant and timely information to guide: – Mutual review at the continental level to review overall progress in the implementation of CAADP – Peer review at the regional level to promote dialogue and mutual learning around the review of progress and performance – Progress review at the national level to ensure that country level policies and programs are aligned with CAADP principles and on track to meet the country- specific targets and objectives 8
  • THE COUNTRY CAADP CYCLE 9
  • CAADP MODELING• PAST PERFORMANCE AND OUTLOOK FOR AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND POVERTY REDUCTION – Examine recent agricultural growth performance and future growth and poverty outcomes based on observed trends; – Compare trends with the targets established for the sector under the ECOWP/CAADP agenda and with MDG1 – Measuring the prospects of meeting these targets and analyzing the implications for future sector growth and poverty-reduction strategies; – Estimating the long term funding needs to accelerate agricultural growth and achieve the poverty MDG. 10
  • CAADP MODELINGContribution of agricultural growth to poverty reduction 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 BENIN BURKINA CAPE GAMBIE GHANA GUINEE LIBERIA MALI NIGER NIGERIA SENEGAL TOGO FASO VERT CONAKRY Agriculture Non Agriculture sectors
  • CAADP MODELINGLong term contributions (=> 2015) of 1% agricultural growth to increases of agricultural GDP and poverty reduction 450 35 400 Ag GDP (Millions US$) 30 Poverty reduction (%) 350 25 300 250 20 200 15 150 10 100 5 50 0 0 Benin Burkina Cape Verde The Gambia Ghana Guinea Liberia Mali Niger Senegal Togo Faso Growth in Agricultural GDP Reduction in national poverty rate
  • CAADP MODELING Strategic ag sub sectors for ag growth and poverty reductionBENIN Food crops (Roots and Tuber)*BURKINA FASO Cattle and Sorghum/milletCAPE VERDE Food cropsGAMBIA Cereals (millet/Sorghum)* and livestockGHANA Root crops and fisheriesGUINEA RiceLIBERIA Food cropsMALI Food crops (Rice; Millet/Sorghum)*NIGER LivestockNIGERIA Cassava, RiceSENEGAL Livestock and food crops (millet/sorghum; Rice)*SIERRA LEONE CassavaTOGO Food crops * For countries where a disaggregated SAM did not exist, results were taken from the IFPRI multi-market model
  • CAADP MODELINGExpected agricultural growth rate by 2015* under different scenarios 16.0 16.0 14.0 14.0 12.0 12.0 10.0 10.0 8.0 8.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 er ia e a l na ria go n e a i so ga al rd ne on ni bi er g To M Fa ha be Be ne am Ve Ni g Le ui Ni G Li Se G na G pe ra i rk er Ca Bu Si bau national strategies CAADP *For Nigeria, the time horizon was extended to 2017 when the country is expected to halve the poverty rate compared to its 1996 level.
  • CAADP MODELING Expected poverty reduction by 2015 under different scenarios bau national strategies CAADP MDG1 40.0 20.0 0.0 -20.0 -40.0 -60.0 -80.0-100.0 go so n er i a na a ia al ia e e al ni bi ne rd on g er g er M Fa To ha Be am ne Ni Ve ui b g Le G Li Ni na Se G G pe ra ki er Ca r Bu Si
  • CAADP MODELINGCurrent share of agricultural spending Required agricultural fundingin total spending (%) growth rate to achieve 6 % agricultural growth (CAADP) 16
  • CAADP MODELINGCurrent responsiveness of agricultural growth to agricultural funding 17
  • CAADP M&E Framework• Request from AU/NEPAD addressed to ReSAKSS• Validation of the Framework March 2010• SMART: Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Timely• Main Questions addressed: – What are the projected impacts if policies and investments proceed as currently planned? – Have expectations in terms of achieving the growth and poverty- and hunger-reduction targets been met so far? 18
  • CAADP M&E Framework• Main Questions addressed: – What factors have shaped the level of impact that has been achieved? – Are these projected impacts compatible with the growth and poverty- and hunger-reduction goals? – Could greater or better distributed outcomes and impacts be obtained by reconfiguring the policies and investment portfolio? – What are the different policies and types of investments that can lead to greater and more sustainable growth as well as greater and better distributed outcomes and impacts? – Etc. 19
  • CAADP M&E Framework• ENABLING ENVIRONMENT• CAADP COUNTRY IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS• COMMITMENTS AND FINANCING• AGRICULTURAL SECTOR PERFORMANCE• CAADP GOALS/MDG1 20
  • CAADP M&E Framework• ENABLING ENVIRONMENT – POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE – POLICIES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT• CAADP COUNTRY IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS – STAGE IN COUNTRY ROUNDTABLE PROCESS AND QUALITY OF PARTICIPATION 21
  • CAADP M&E Framework• COMMITMENTS AND FINANCING – DONOR COMMITMENTS AND DISBURSEMENTS – GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURE – PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENTS 22
  • CAADP M&E Framework• AGRICULTURAL SECTOR PERFORMANCE – CAPACITY – AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND SOURCES OF GROWTH – AGRICULTURAL TRADE• CAADP GOALS/MDG1 – POVERTY – HUNGER AND FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 23
  • FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT• NO OR LIMITED PRIMARY DATA COLLECTION• CHALLENGES: • ACCESS TO DATA • DATA QUALITY • CONTINUITY • DATA FORMAT COMPATIBILITY • SUSTAINABILITY 24
  • FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT• TEAM: CORE COUNTRY ACTORS – Planning and statistics unit of MINAGRI (PSU) as coordinator – National Institute of Statistics (poverty unit, national accounting unit) – Budget unit in Ministries of Finance – Professional think tanks – Market information systems – M&E units in other relevant ministries such as livestock, environment, fisheries, trade, etc – NARS including Universities – Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRSP) unit 25
  • FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT• TEAM: REGIONAL – ReSAKSS WA EXPERTS – LEAD EXPERTS FOR EACH COMPONENT: • FUNDING, • MACRO PERFORMANCE, • AGRICULTURAL PERFORMANCE, • LIVELIHOODS 26
  • FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT• ACTIVITIES: REGIONAL – Drafting of terms of reference: list and specification of indicators, rationale, definitions, computation, sources and links to policy targets; profile of collaborators – Methodology workshops , quality review, technical backstopping – Regional synthesis of each component by ReSAKSS in collaboration with lead experts – Regional validation and dissemination workshop – Finalization of regional trends and outlook report 27
  • FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT• ACTIVITIES AT NATIONAL LEVEL – PSU as coordinator develops operational plan and monitors execution – Data collection and analysis by different subgroups following the components – Subgroup reports submitted to the planning unit with data sheets as annexes – Planning unit consolidates subgroup reports and submits to ReSAKSS with all data sheets for review – Technical meetings and national validation workshops – Finalization of national trends and outlook report 28
  • FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT• Evolution of public agricultural expenditure (in million of $ US in 2008) 4096 2048 Bénin 1024 Burkina Faso 512 Cote dIvoire 256 Gambia 128 Ghana 64 Liberia 32 Mali 16 Niger 8 Nigeria 4 Sénégal 2 1 Sierra Leone 1993 2003 1990 1991 1992 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Togo 29
  • FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT• Evolution of the agriculture share in the total public expenditure 0.5 Burkina Faso 0.45 Cote dIvoire 0.4 Gambie 0.35 Ghana 0.3 Liberia Mali 0.25 Niger 0.2 Nigeria 0.15 Sénégal 0.1 Sierra Leone 0.05 Togo 0 Cible 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 30
  • FIRST CAADP M&E REPORTMAPUTO DECLARATION MONITORING 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% go a ne er a nin ria l ire ali ia ga o bi an as er To g eo M ge vo ne Be m Ni Gh aF Lib aL Ga Ni dI Se in rr te rk Sie Cô Bu Mea n 2000-2004 Mea n 2005-2008 Ta rget
  • FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT• Breakdown of agricultural expenditure by economic use (average 2003-2007) 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Burkina Niger Mali Sénégal Nigeria Bénin Ghana Côte Togo Faso dIvoire Investment Recurrent 32
  • FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT• Breakdown of agricultural expenditure by source of funding (average 2003-2007 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Niger Burkina Mali Togo Bénin Sénégal Côte Ghana Faso dIvoire Sha re of i nterna l res ources Sha re of externa l Res ources 33
  • FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT• Distribution of agricultural expenditure by type (average 2004-2008) 100% 8.7 90% 17.7 17.5 0.0 80% 14.1 46.2 70% 56.1 64.6 6.5 Non desagregé 22.7 0.0 60% Autres 0.9 Intrants et equipements 50% Vulgarisation 13.5 40% 7.8 Recherche et developpement 1.6 Irrigation 30% 12.0 12.7 61.7 53.0 Admistration 20% 33.9 21.9 24.8 10% 0% 2.1 Ghana Benin Togo Burkina Faso Mali 34
  • FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT• Agricultural growth in 2008 and 2003-2007 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% go e a r nin a ria l ne ali ea ire ria ga o ge au rd an bi as To M eo in ge e ne vo Be Ve m Ni ss Gh Lib aF Gu -5.0% aL Ga Ni Bi dI Se pe in rr ea te Ca rk Sie in Cô Bu Gu -10.0% 2008 2003-2007 Ta rget 35
  • FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT• Contribution of different sub sectors in ag growth in 2008 100% 80% 60% 40% Peche, foresterie Elevage 20% Production végétale 0% Benin Burkina Faso Côte dIvoire Niger Nigeria Senegal Togo -20% -40% 36
  • FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT• Distribution of agricultural exports by country 2000-2007 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 2.9% 1.7% 3.3% Côte dIvoire 4.2% Ghana Senegal 5.0% Mali Nigeria 7.4% Benin Burkina Faso 53.2% Niger Togo Guinea 20.0% Gambia Cape Verde 37
  • FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT• Distribution of agricultural exports by product in the region (2000-2005) 1.7% 1.1% 1.3% Cocoa 1.8% 1.8% 2.7% Cotton 5.6% Wood and Timber Fish and other aquatic Products Coffe 11.3% 42.5% Cashew Nut Live Animals Banana Tobacco and Derivates 15.0% Palm Oil 38
  • FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT• Structure of food imports (2003-2007) 3% 5% Rice 6% 22% Wheat Fish 7% Milk Products Edible Oils Sugar and sweets 11% Derivatives from Cereals and Milk 17% Meat 13% 39
  • FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT• Evolution of the agricultural trade balance 400% 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% e go r na pe ia n ria l as re i ea ga so ge al rd ni b To ow oi Bu Gha M in ge ne Fa Ve Be m Ni Iv Gu Ga Ni Ec Se a d in te Ca rk Cô 2003-2007 2008 Ta rget 40
  • FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT• Trend in food trade balance 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% e go a r pe a nin ria l re ali ea ga o ge rd bi an as To i M in ge vo ne Ve Be m Ni Gh aF Gu Ga Ni dI Se in te Ca rk Cô Bu 2003-2007 2008 Ta rget 41
  • FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT• Changes in Welfare Indicators In West Africa (1990s – 2000s) 40 35 % Increase % Decrease 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 P o verty P er capita GDP P o verty gap Share o f Underweight Stunted Undernourished GHI Incidence ratio poo rest quintile children Children populatio n 42
  • PROSPECTS• Second phase of “consolidation and repositioning of ReSAKSS as the leading knowledge platform for agricultural policy planning and implementation in Africa, ... full operationalization at country level of CAADP M&E for African agricultural development by setting up operational country networks..”• Hand over to REC’s 43
  • MERCI DE VOTREAIMABLE ATTENTION 44