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Megapolis 2025: Muutoksia maailman kaupungeissa.

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Tekniikan tohtori ja Pöyry Management Consulting Oy:n toimialajohtaja Petri Vasaran avauspuheenvuoro.

Tekniikan tohtori ja Pöyry Management Consulting Oy:n toimialajohtaja Petri Vasaran avauspuheenvuoro.

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  • Always been a distrust between big city folk and smaller places
  • Always need a definition: ”Global Changes in Cities”. If a man is tired of London, he is tired of life.
  • Alphabet soup now
  • Contrasts is the theme: Western and India pyramids. What we could call ”resolution” in two meanings: problems sharp small detail and big problems
  • Looks like bathtun: bigggg flowing city juggernaits, smaller development (latter partly woishful thinking, ) Lähiruoka
  • CITY HUNGRY
  • Fed with biomass and water. Nothing new, Deforesttaion for conversion to agriculture, rerouted natural water The radar imagery show the remnants of rice fields covering the entire region from the lake to the mountain foothills. A river was diverted to fill the reservoirs, and to irrigate the landscape To work out what solid-state lighting would do to the use of light by 2030, Dr Tsao and his colleagues made some assumptions about global economic output, the price of energy, the efficiency of the new technology and its cost. Assuming that, by 2030, solid-state lights will be about three times more efficient than fluorescent ones and that the price of electricity stays the same in real terms, the number of megalumen-hours consumed by the average person will, according to their model, rise tenfold, from 20 to 202. The amount of electricity needed to generate that light would more than double. Only if the price of electricity were to triple would the amount of electricity used to generate light start to fall by 2030. Dr Tsao and his colleagues see no immediate end to this process by which improvements in the supply of light stimulate the desire for more—rather as the construction of that other environmental bête noire, roads, stimulates the growth of traffic. Even now, the interiors of homes and workplaces are typically lit at only a tenth of the brightness of the outdoors on an overcast day, so there is plenty of room for improvement. And many outdoor areas that people would prefer to be bright at night remain dark because of the expense. If money were no object, some parts of the outdoors might be illuminated at night to be as bright as day. It is worth remembering that when gas lights replaced candles and oil lamps in the 19th century, some newspapers reported that they were “glaring” and “dazzling white”. In fact, a gas jet of the time gave off about as much light as a 25 watt incandescent bulb does today. To modern eyes, that is well on the dim side. So, for those who truly wish to reduce the amount of energy expended on lighting the answer may not be to ban old-fashioned incandescent bulbs, as is the current trend, but to make them compulsory.
  • SNA rule of thumb: internally intimately connected linked with strong fewre nond The radar imagery show the remnants of rice fields covering the entire region from the lake to the mountain foothills. A river was diverted to fill the reservoirs, and to irrigate the landscape To work out what solid-state lighting would do to the use of light by 2030, Dr Tsao and his colleagues made some assumptions about global economic output, the price of energy, the efficiency of the new technology and its cost. Assuming that, by 2030, solid-state lights will be about three times more efficient than fluorescent ones and that the price of electricity stays the same in real terms, the number of megalumen-hours consumed by the average person will, according to their model, rise tenfold, from 20 to 202. The amount of electricity needed to generate that light would more than double. Only if the price of electricity were to triple would the amount of electricity used to generate light start to fall by 2030. Dr Tsao and his colleagues see no immediate end to this process by which improvements in the supply of light stimulate the desire for more—rather as the construction of that other environmental bête noire, roads, stimulates the growth of traffic. Even now, the interiors of homes and workplaces are typically lit at only a tenth of the brightness of the outdoors on an overcast day, so there is plenty of room for improvement. And many outdoor areas that people would prefer to be bright at night remain dark because of the expense. If money were no object, some parts of the outdoors might be illuminated at night to be as bright as day. It is worth remembering that when gas lights replaced candles and oil lamps in the 19th century, some newspapers reported that they were “glaring” and “dazzling white”. In fact, a gas jet of the time gave off about as much light as a 25 watt incandescent bulb does today. To modern eyes, that is well on the dim side. So, for those who truly wish to reduce the amount of energy expended on lighting the answer may not be to ban old-fashioned incandescent bulbs, as is the current trend, but to make them compulsory.
  • FIX VIRTUAL AND PHYSICAL INFRA AT SAME TIME. Areality.Now, that’s fine, but pretty grm details when you don’t use AR.
  • To work out what solid-state lighting would do to the use of light by 2030, Dr Tsao and his colleagues made some assumptions about global economic output, the price of energy, the efficiency of the new technology and its cost. Assuming that, by 2030, solid-state lights will be about three times more efficient than fluorescent ones and that the price of electricity stays the same in real terms, the number of megalumen-hours consumed by the average person will, according to their model, rise tenfold, from 20 to 202. The amount of electricity needed to generate that light would more than double. Only if the price of electricity were to triple would the amount of electricity used to generate light start to fall by 2030. Dr Tsao and his colleagues see no immediate end to this process by which improvements in the supply of light stimulate the desire for more—rather as the construction of that other environmental bête noire, roads, stimulates the growth of traffic. Even now, the interiors of homes and workplaces are typically lit at only a tenth of the brightness of the outdoors on an overcast day, so there is plenty of room for improvement. And many outdoor areas that people would prefer to be bright at night remain dark because of the expense. If money were no object, some parts of the outdoors might be illuminated at night to be as bright as day. It is worth remembering that when gas lights replaced candles and oil lamps in the 19th century, some newspapers reported that they were “glaring” and “dazzling white”. In fact, a gas jet of the time gave off about as much light as a 25 watt incandescent bulb does today. To modern eyes, that is well on the dim side. So, for those who truly wish to reduce the amount of energy expended on lighting the answer may not be to ban old-fashioned incandescent bulbs, as is the current trend, but to make them compulsory.
  • Lähiruoka
  • Transcript

    • 1. Petri Vasara Dr.Tech., Principal Pöyry Management Consulting Oy Megapolis 2025 September 25, 2010 GLOBAL CHANGES IN CITIES FEEDING HUNGRY CREATURES
    • 2. System Shocks Megacities of the Aging and the Growing
      • Aging populations means more smileys like this.
    • 3. Definition Sherlock Holmes and Oscar Wilde on Cities
      • ” When you remove the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth ".
      • ” ...the unspeakable in pursuit of the uneatable... ".
      Holmes & Wilde CITY TREND When you remove the eatable and unspeakable, whatever remains, however improbable, will be a popular feature of some city. The cities need food and energy = kJ The amount of information communicated inside cities is expanding radically = GB
    • 4. The Riddle of the Sphinx 2010 A discontinuity
    • 5. Contrasts Pyramids and Details Turning the hourglass upside down: population age Resolution - sharp details and bigger picture: city size and related problems
    • 6. Contrasts Cities: Bathtub problems Population of near-conurbation Mexico City Top-20 Chinese cities Linked ”villages”
    • 7. THE CITY AS A HUNGRY LIVING ORGANISM... ...feeding the large and the small
      • A city needs to power itself with food.
      • A city needs to process its food.
      • A city produces output.
      • A city needs additional input supplements.
    • 8. Contrasts: Hungry City Food (And Drink) Biomass, Water EARLY FAILURE IN MEGACITY BIOMASS AND WATER CONTROL “ Angkor Wat, the spectacular 12th century Khmer Temple in Cambodia, was the center of an enormous, low-density urban complex whose size (1000 square km) rivaled large modern day cities. It looks like the earlier theory that the large reservoirs were primarily for irrigation is correct.. It is possible that the deforestation of the area for conversion to agriculture, combined with the re-routed natural water channels, may have led to a large-scale ecological disaster.”
    • 9. Contrasts: Hungry City Digesting Food (And Drink) Processes: Network, Not Size For vibrant economy (=digestion), transportation networks matter more than city size When it comes to growing a vibrant economy in a city or town, it turns out that size doesn’t matter — at least as much as transportation networks do. Well-connected communities with good transportation systems, like the Arkansas town where Walmart is headquartered, can compete with major metropolises , if they have a number of strong connections to other cities. according to a recent study. Smart Planet/Christina Hernandez Zachary Neal, Michigan State University, City and Community. “ In the past, the strategy had been attracting new residents and growing the tax base. Potentially, a better strategy will be looking for opportunities to connect with both in the regional area and farther away. That may be at least one approach for struggling cities.”
    • 10. Contrasts: Hungry City Output Virtual Colonises the Physical and Vice Versa VIRTUAL COLONISES PHYSICAL “Cyberspace, not so long ago, was a specific elsewhere, one we visited periodically, peering into it from the familiar physical world. Now cyberspace has everted. Turned itself inside out. Colonized the physical.” - William Gibson (2010) PHYSICAL KNOCKS ON VIRTUAL’S DOOR “ A significant development was the construction of a network of sewers to collect waste water, which began from the Indus Valley. In some cities, including Istanbul (Constantinople), networked ancient sewer systems continue to function today as collection systems for those cities' modernized sewer systems . Instead of flowing to a river or the sea, the pipes have been re-routed to modern sewer treatment facilities. ” - Wikipedia
    • 11. Contrasts: Hungry City Additional Input Supplements Light and Darkness MAKING LIGHTING MORE EFFICIENT COULD INCREASE ENERGY USE, NOT DECREASE IT Economist, Aug 26th 2010 In 1700 a typical Briton consumed 580 lumen-hours in the course of a year, from candles, wood and oil. Today, burning electric lights, he uses about 46 megalumen-hours—almost 100,000 times as much. Better technology has stimulated demand, resulting in more energy being purchased for conversion into light. Journal of Physics D: Applied Physics; Jeff Tsao of Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico and his colleagues. “ They predict that the introduction of solid-state lighting could increase the consumption of light by a factor of ten within two decades.” M.C.Escher: Night and Day
    • 12. Contrasts Cities: Bathtub solutions – knitting together the ends Population of near-conurbation Mexico City Top-20 Chinese cities Linked ”villages” kJ EUR lumen kg l GB
      • ” The Urban Unit Dance”
      • Biomass (kg) inhabits cities
      • Biomass needs biomass (kg) and water (kg/l)
      • Biomass needs light (lumen)
      • Biomass needs information (GB)
      • Kg, l. lumen and GB need energy (kJ)
      • Everything needs financial resources (EUR)
      • EUR is hopefully not the only reason for biomass to inhabit cities
    • 13. Bathtub With A Resource World Avoiding Bathtub Homicide with Good Planning, Including Engineering It is about resource-efficiency, be it large or small cities A focus on resources is emerging: a scarcity of energy, water, clean air, land, metals and fibre is in different combinations having an impact on the most varied human endeavour sectors
    • 14. CONTACT For further information please contact: Petri Vasara Dr.Tech., Principal Pöyry Management Consulting Oy Tel. +358 40 500 9553 E-mail [email_address]