Velocity is one of the most common metrics used—and one of the most commonly misused—on agile projects. Velocity is simply a measurement of speed in a given direction—the rate at which a team is delivering toward a product release. As with a vehicle en route to a particular destination, increasing the speed may appear to ensure a timely arrival. However, that assumption is dangerous because it ignores the risks with higher speeds. And while it’s easy to increase a vehicle’s speed, where exactly is the accelerator on a software team? This presentation covers Hawthorne Effect and Goodhart’s Law to explain why setting goals for velocity can actually hurt a project's chances. Take a look at what can negatively impact velocity, ways to stabilize fluctuating velocity, and methods to improve velocity without the risks.

1. Agile Metrics:
Velocity
is Not the
Goal.
Michael “Doc” Norton ◊ @DocOnDev ◊ doc@leandog.com

2. What’s “Agile” Velocity?

3. What’s “Agile” Velocity?
Work units delivered over time

4. Trailing Indicator

5. Trailing Indicator
Tells us about the health of the project

6. “You can’t manage
what you can’t
measure”

7. Says Who?

8. You can’t
manage what you
can’t measure.
Dr. W. Edwards Deming
Father of the Quality Evolution

9. Don’t be
O T
N
ridiculous!
in ly
r t a
C e
Dr. W. Edwards Deming
Father of the Quality Evolution

10. Running a
company on visible
figures alone
[is deadly]
Dr. W. Edwards Deming
Father of the Quality Evolution

11. Seven Deadly Diseases
of
Western Management

12. Seven Deadly Diseases
of
Western Management
Lack of constancy of purpose
Emphasis on short term profits
Evaluation of performance, merit rating, or annual review
Mobility of top management
Running a company on visible figures alone
Excessive medical costs
Excessive legal damage awards

13. The Hawthorn Effect

14. The Hawthorn Effect
That which is measured, will improve

15. What matters is not
setting quantitative
goals but fixing the
method by which those
goals are attained

16. What matters is not
setting quantitative
goals but fixing the
method by which those
goals are attained
Repair the root cause
Rather than the symptoms

17. Unstable Velocity

18. Unstable Velocity
What does it mean?

19. Poor Story Composition

20. Poor Story Composition
You want consistent (small) stories

21. Too Much WIP

22. Too Much WIP
Get the highest value done first

23. Dependency on Other Teams

24. Dependency on Other Teams
Get everyone you need on the team

25. Stable Velocity

26. Stable Velocity
It won’t ever be perfect

27. Increase Velocity

28. Increase Velocity
Do we always want to go faster?

29. Goodhart’s Law

30. Goodhart’s Law
Making a metric a target destroys the metric

31. What matters is not
setting quantitative
goals but fixing the
method by which those
goals are attained
Repair the root cause

32. What matters is not
setting quantitative
goals but fixing the
method by which those
goals are attained
Repair the root cause
Rather than the symptoms

33. Velocity Graph

34. Velocity Graph
What does it tell us?

35. Sample Backlog

36. Cumulative Flow

37. Cumulative Flow
Velocity doesn’t always tell us enough

39. 20
15
10
5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Velocity
Velocity Graph

40. 20
15
10
5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Velocity
Velocity Graph
What story does this tell?

41. 100
75
50
25
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Deployed Ready for Approval In Testing In Progress Ready To Start
Cumulative Flow

42. 100
75
50
25
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Deployed Ready for Approval In Testing In Progress Ready To Start
Cumulative Flow
What story does this tell?

43. 16
12
8
4
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Velocity
Balanced Metrics

44. 16
12
8
4
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Velocity
Balanced Metrics
Watch more than one

45. 16 50
12 37.5
8 25
4 12.5
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Velocity Quality
Balanced Metrics
Watch more than one

46. 16 50
12 37.5
8 25
4 12.5
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Velocity Quality Avg. Hours
Balanced Metrics
Watch more than one

47. Remember

48. Remember
• Velocity is a trailing indicator
• That which is measured will improve (at a cost)
• Velocity can tell us several things
• What matters is not the metric, but the behaviors that produce
the results
• Setting a goal on a metric negates the metric
• Cycle and Lead Time can tell us more
• Balance your metrics

49. Thank You
Michael “Doc” Norton ◊ @DocOnDev ◊ doc@leandog.com