Stephen Leonard, Senior Policy Analyst with CIFOR, gives presentation on the UNFCCC Policy Landscape before COP20 in Lima, Peru.

1. THE UNFCCC POLICY LANDSCAPE
PRE LIMA
Stephen Leonard, Senior Policy Analyst – UNFCCC
Center for International Forestry Research
20 November 2014

2. SETTING THE STAGE
Big Picture
• Recent emissions reductions announcements
− EU: 40% on 1990 levels by 2030
− China: Emissions peak by 2030 / 20% zero emissions energy
by 2030
− USA: 26 – 28% on 2005 levels by 2025
• Financial Pledges being made
‒ Current pledges to GCF around US$9b – target this year
of US$10 – 15b
• Climate in G20 Communique despite Australian block
• However, very few Kyoto Amendment ratifications

3. SETTING THE STAGE – FORESTS
New Climate Agreement – Possible inclusions:
• REDD+ Mechanism
• REDD+ Window in the GCF
SBSTA
• Finalizing work on Safeguards in Lima
• Alternative Policy Approaches – adaptation links
Finance
• GCF Frameworks completed
• REDD+ Results Framework agreed in Barbados
• Standing Committee on Finance

4. THIS PRESENTATION…..
• SBs
– SBSTA – Metrics / REDD+ Safeguards /
REDD+ Alternative Policy Approaches /
Clean Development Mechanism – land
use
– SBI - Adaptation Plans
• New Climate Agreement – Elements &
INDCs
• Finance - Green Climate Fund / Standing
Committee on Finance

5. ACRONYMS
ADP: Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform
AR5: Fifth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
BRs: Biennial Reports
BURs: Biennial Update Reports
CDM: Clean Development Mechanism
CfRN: Coalition for Rainforest Nations
COP: Conference of Parties
GCF: Green Climate Fund
GEF: Global Environment Facility
INDCs: Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
JMA: Joint Mitigation Adaptation
KP: Kyoto Protocol
LUCFA: Land Use Change and Forest Activities
LULUCF: Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry
MRV: Measuring Reporting and Verification
Nat Comms: National Communications
NAMAs: Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions
NAPs: National Adaptation Plans
NAPAs: National Adaptation Programmes of Action
SBSTA: Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technical Advice
SBI: Subsidiary Body on Implementation
SCF: Standing Committee on Finance
SIS: Safeguards Information Systems
TEM: Technical Expert Meeting
UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
WS: Work Stream

6. SUBSIDIARY BODIES

7. SBSTA 41 – REDD+ SAFEGUARDS INFORMATION SYSTEMS
• The ‘need’ for further guidance on Safeguards Information Systems
– Unresolved issue for the past 2+ years
• Submissions received / compiled – CIFOR Analyses
– majority of submissions favor further guidance.
– trade-offs between further guidance and the promotion of country-driven
approaches and national sovereignty.
– need to minimize the burden for creation of and reporting on SIS.
– civil society organizations highlighted issues around equity and
participation of local people in the process.
– Useful guidance on how to develop a country-driven approach.

8. SBSTA 41 – ALTERNATIVE POLICY APPROACHES TO REDD+
• Warsaw mandate to agree at SBSTA 40 – no agreement so put back to
Lima
• Premised on Bolivian Proposal – JMA and Non Markets – alternative to
REDD carbon markets approach – not replacement
– Expert Meeting / Workshop held in Bonn @ SBSTA 40
– See:
https://unfccc.int/files/methods/redd/application/pdf/bolivian_proposal_j
ma_05.06.2014.pdf
• Debate over whether item remains under REDD or new Agenda item
– Brazil pushing to have the item considered outside the REDD Bali
Agenda item
– Bolivia want it to remain under REDD

9. SBSTA 41 – CDM & LULUCF
• CDM – under the Kyoto Protocol
• SBSTA 40 considered inputs from technical paper
• Ongoing consideration in Lima of additional LULUCF areas under the CDM:
– Revegetation including agroforestry and silvopastoral;
– Cropland management and grazing management
• Wetland drainage and rewettingCDM – under the Kyoto Protocol
• SBSTA 40 considered inputs from technical paper
• Ongoing consideration in Lima of additional LULUCF areas under the CDM:
– Revegetation including agroforestry and silvopastoral;
– Cropland management and grazing management
– Wetland drainage and rewetting

10. SBSTA 41 - METRICS
• Provide the basis for comparing impacts in multiple GHG reduction efforts
• Ongoing debate:
‒ KP =Global Warming Potential – others developed since 1997
‒ Whether to expand to other metrics / timescales
8 different metrics in AR5 / timescales: 20, 50 and 100 years
• Was considered in Bonn – no agreement – Lima
• Brazil – need an agreement - critical input to the ADP
‒ Discussion concerning agreement on a ‘common metric’ or ‘basket of
metrics’ for the new agreement

11. SBI 41 – NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLANS
• Much emphasis on the lack of finance:
– new climate agreement links:
• Finance including via GCF
• INDCs
• Norway calling for adaptation and forests to be discussed in NAPs context
– Expect more focus on forests and adaptation (SCF / GCF)
• Countries lacking understanding of technical guidance and seeking greater
clarity

12. THE DURBAN PLATFORM

13. THE DURBAN PLATFORM (ADP)
• Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform
• WS 1 - process to develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed
outcome with legal force applicable to all Parties by 2015 for implementation
by 2020
• WS 2 - Pre 2020 - to explore options to close the ambition gap ensuring
highest possible mitigation efforts by Parties

14. PRE 2020 MITIGATION
• TEMs – part of the formal process:
– Land Use / Non CO2 Emissions (agriculture)
• Purpose:
– To enhance pre 2020 mitigation
– Provide guidance to UNFCCC Institutions (eg: GCF)
• Projects / programmes to finance
• Priority areas
– Likely to be ongoing to up 2020
• Possible to be broadened to include adaptation

15. PRE 2020 MITIGATION
• TEMS: Outputs:
– Land Use
• REDD+ remains high on the agenda
• high mitigation & Adaptation potential from forest and agricultural
sectors;
• a scaling up of finance, technology and capacity building is required;
• sectoral policies are required;
• participatory multi-stakeholder dialogues should commence at early
stages;
See: http://unfccc.int/bodies/awg/items/8171.php

16. PRE 2020 MITIGATION
• Non CO2 Emissions – Agriculture
– up to 80% of emissions from the agriculture sector could be reduced by
2030.
• Potential policies and actions identified include
– soil conservation;
– soil productivity and erosion control;
– nitrogen use efficiency;
– rice management;
– Research; and
– landscape approach
See: http://unfccc.int/bodies/awg/items/8420.php

17. NEW AGREEMENT - ADAPTATION
• Has had a clear increase in profile
• Major emphasis on scaling up finance
• Link in with current processes – NAPs, NAPAs and Adaption Fund
• Focus on a global adaptation goal – metrics
– Vulnerability, resource allocation, economics, research, finance
– Proposed process to be launched

18. NEW AGREEMENT - MITIGATION
• Focus on a global goal - options:
– temperature goal that reflects current science;
– emissions reduction goal – 40 – 70% below 2010 levels by 2050;
– maximum concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere – 350ppm;
– Carbon budget
• Divide as to whether developing countries should have economy wide
emissions reduction targets

19. NEW AGREEMENT – REDD+
• Current Non Paper (will form basis of draft text) – see:
http://unfccc.int/meetings/lima_dec_2014/session/8532.php
• Institutions: REDD+ Mechanism
– Possible Institution to be developed by SBSTA
– NB: CfRN proposal - informal meetings
• Finance: REDD+ Window in the GCF
– Would be specific institutional arrangements for REDD+

20. NEW AGREEMENT – INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED
CONTRIBUTIONS
• CoP 20 – Agreement on scope –
draft text out now
• Commitments / Contributions – to
what extent will they be legally
binding in a new agreement?
• Parties to communicate their INDCs
to the UNFCCC by the first quarter
of 2015
• Countries beginning to express that
REDD+ likely to be relied on as a
contribution
– Outstanding question as to
what information would be
included on REDD+ eg:
safeguards information
systems summary?
• Disagreement remains as to
whether to do an ex ante
assessment in 2015 – will be an
issue in Lima
• Likely that INDCS will be broad –
Mitigation, Adaptation, Technology,
capacity building and finance
– Reflected in draft text for Lima
decision
– Possible links with reporting
processes – Biennial Report
and Biennial Update Reports
and International Assessment
and Review and International
Consultation and Analyses
• Other links – NAPs / NAPAs /
NAMAs

21. NEW AGREEMENT – CYCLES, RULES, MODALITIES
• MRV cycles already in place – BRs
/ BURs / Nat Comms etc….
– How does this link to INDCs
process where MRV is carbon?
• Review cycle: adequacy of INDCs
• Commitment cycle: emissions
reductions / finance etc
– Cannot be frozen in time
• 5 years or 10 years
– 5 year cycles with 10 year
indicative targets
– 10 year cycles with 5 year mid
term review
– In line with science - IPCC
• Accounting
– Most likely area of
convergence between LULUCF
& REDD+ - common
accounting rules
• Suggested that there be key
Principles across the land sector
– Technical work to be done
2015 – 2020
– Land-use change and forest
activities (NEW terminology)
• Principles – rights / landscapes
– What hooks should these
principles contain?

22. ADP – EXPECTATIONS FOR LIMA
• Decision on Pre 2020 mitigation / TEMs
• Decision on INDCs
– Scope of information – may elaborate on REDD inclusion
– Whether there will be an ex ante assessment in 2015
• Elements for a draft negotiating text
– BUT – intercessional in February 2015 - fall back!!!
– More clarity on Land-Use Change and Forest Activities (LUCFA)

23. FINANCE

24. STANDING COMMITTEE ON FINANCE
• Warsaw Mandate:
– Coordination and cohesion of finance and forests
– Beyond REDD+
• Eighth Meeting – October in Bonn
– Commenced preparations for 2015 Forum
– Released Background paper
• 2015 Forum on Finance and Forests
– May 2015
– Will inform Financial Mechanisms – GCF, GEF, Adaptation Fund
– Report to COP 21 (Paris)

25. GREEN CLIMATE FUND
• Operating entity of the Financial
Mechanism
• Eighth Board Meeting in October –
36 agenda items
• Governance Frameworks now in
place
• Accreditation Procedure now
agreed - Applications have been
release
– Fast track procedures in place
• Resource mobilization process in
place
– Next meeting 20 November
(today)
• REDD+ Results Based Payments
Framework – see:
http://www.gcfund.org/fileadmin/00_c
ustomer/documents/MOB201410-
8th/GCF_B.08_08_Rev.01_Initial_Lo
gic_Model_fin_20141022.pdf
• Limited to Carbon
– definition of results as ‘only’ ex
post payments?
• Recalls Warsaw language on
requirements (eg: SIS)
– No assessments process in
place for safeguards compliance
• Lacking – more work to be done
– recognition / incentives for non
carbon benefits
– clear framework in place for
Phase 1 & 2 finance

27. SYNERGIES & LANDSCAPES

28. SYNERGIES & LANDSCAPES
• There was much activity Pre SB 40 / ADP 2.5
• Agriculture Road Map goes through to mid 2016 – New Agreement will be
reached in 2015
– Agriculture discussion moving towards mitigation
• Mitigation and Adaptation synergies are central to a landscape approach –
under developed area
– High potential for development going forward
– Linked with non markets / alternative policy approaches
• REDD+ discussion moving towards adaptation
• Common accounting rules – high level principles

29. MITIGATION & ADAPTATION SYNERGIES
• Identified as important for the land sector in AR5
• ADP - current non paper includes several linkages
• GCF – Additional Adaptation Results Areas not agreed
• SCF – Alternative Policy Approaches
• SBSTA - Alternative Policy Approaches – JMA
– Some Parties have called for international technical guidance and
modalities on the issue – Bolivia, Singapore, China, PNG

30. ACRONYMS
ADP: Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform
AR5: Fifth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
BRs: Biennial Reports
BURs: Biennial Update Reports
CDM: Clean Development Mechanism
CfRN: Coalition for Rainforest Nations
COP: Conference of Parties
GCF: Green Climate Fund
GEF: Global Environment Facility
INDCs: Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
JMA: Joint Mitigation Adaptation
KP: Kyoto Protocol
LUCFA: Land Use Change and Forest Activities
LULUCF: Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry
MRV: Measuring Reporting and Verification
Nat Comms: National Communications
NAMAs: Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions
NAPs: National Adaptation Plans
NAPAs: National Adaptation Programmes of Action
SBSTA: Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technical Advice
SBI: Subsidiary Body on Implementation
SCF: Standing Committee on Finance
SIS: Safeguards Information Systems
TEM: Technical Expert Meeting
UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
WS: Work Stream

31. THANK YOU
cifor.org
blog.cifor.org
ForestsTreesAgroforestry.org