This document provides an agenda for a webinar on modeling and data analysis for developing long-term climate strategies under the Paris Agreement. The webinar will include presentations on the role of modeling in long-term strategies, capacity building for modeling and analysis, and using models to explore implications of uncertainties. There will also be a question and answer session. The goal is to discuss how countries can use robust modeling and analysis to inform the development of their long-term climate strategies.

1. LONG-TERM CLIMATE STRATEGIES
UNDER THE PARIS AGREEMENT
2019 WEBINAR SERIES
MODELING AND DATA ANALYSIS IN
DEVELOPING LONG-TERM STRATEGIES
October 31, 2019 9:00 am EDT (13:00 GMT)

2. Modeling and data analysis in developing long-term strategies
AGENDA
• Welcome (3 mins)
– Ichiro Sato, World Resources Institute (WRI)
• Brief Introduction to Long-term Strategies (LTS) (5 mins)
– Richard Baron, 2050 Pathways Platform
• Role of modeling and model-based analysis (15 mins)
– James Edmonds, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) / University of Maryland
• Capacity building for modeling and analysis (15 mins)
– Marcela Jaramillo Gil, Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)
• Using models to explore implications of uncertainties (5 mins)
– Ichiro Sato, WRI
• Question & Answer (15 mins)
– Moderated by Richard Baron, 2050 Pathways Platform
• Closing (2 mins)
– Ichiro Sato

3. Modeling and data analysis in developing long-term strategies
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4. Modeling and data analysis in developing long-term strategies
LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT
STRATEGIES
Richard Baron
2050 Pathways Platform

5. 2050 PATHWAYS PLATFORM - PRESENTATION 5
Long-term Strategies: State of Play

6. 6
Typology of long-term strategies (LT-LEDS)
- focus on mitigation -
Explore the long-term
Model-based scenarios
Test technology options
Initiate a domestic discussion
International LT pledge
State a LT emission goal
‘Back-cast’ sectoral emissions
pathway
Detail a policy roadmap
Set in broader socio-
economic context
Declaration of intent
Indicate overall ambition
Identify sectoral challenges and
opportunities
Opens a domestic discussion
Japan Germany UK
Costa Rica Benin Norway
US Canada Mexico
Czech R. Ukraine EU
Fiji France
Portugal RMI
Note: Countries in italics have not
submitted their LT-LEDS document yet

7. Process for a robust
long-term strategy
7

8. Modeling and data analysis in developing long-term strategies
ROLE OF MODELING AND MODEL-BASED ANALYSIS
Jae Edmonds
PNNL / University of Maryland

9. DRAFT PRESENTATION—DO NOT QUOTE, SUBJECT TO CHANGE
9
The Paris Agreement of 2015
• A goal: “Holding the increase in the global average temperature to
well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to
limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels”

10. DRAFT PRESENTATION—DO NOT QUOTE, SUBJECT TO CHANGE
10
Getting to Zero—Five strategy elements
• Energy efficiency—reduce demand for energy as much as economical
• Decarbonize power generation
• Fossil fuel with CCS
• Renewable power
• Nuclear power
• Bioenergy
• Bioenergy with CCS
• Electrify Buildings and Industry
as much as economical
• Decarbonize transport
• Electrify
• Biofuels
• H2
• Halt deforestation/afforestation and continue improving crop yields
Source: http://www.energy.gov/science-innovation/energy-sources/renewable-energy/wind

11. DRAFT PRESENTATION—DO NOT QUOTE, SUBJECT TO CHANGE
11
ALL sectors need to get close to zero or less
Source: IPCC, AR5, SPM

12. DRAFT PRESENTATION—DO NOT QUOTE, SUBJECT TO CHANGE
12
Models AND scenarios are tools
GCAM
Models and Scenarios are tools
for thinking about the future and
exploring alternative pathways,
So that good outcomes can be
identified
And bad outcomes can be avoided
or at least anticipated
Models are similarly a tool for
exploring quantitative pathways
They keep the accounts straight
They provide insights that might
have otherwise gone overlooked

13. DRAFT PRESENTATION—DO NOT QUOTE, SUBJECT TO CHANGE
13
Co-development of knowledge
Models alone cannot
provide a pathway to
deep decarbonization
• Any path to deep
decarbonization needs
to be co-developed
with those who will
need to implement that
path.
• Those who are going
to implement the path
need to own the path

14. DRAFT PRESENTATION—DO NOT QUOTE, SUBJECT TO CHANGE
14
Everybody learns along the way
Models provide a
reality check for users.
Users provide a reality
check for modelers.
Meet, model, meet
again, model again,
repeat
Three pathways developed under the PATHWAYS TO
2050 study led by C2ES

15. DRAFT PRESENTATION—DO NOT QUOTE, SUBJECT TO CHANGE
15
More models are better
• Many methods and
models are available,
but no model does
everything best.
• At a recent workshop on
multi-scale and
economics there were
calls for more and better
simple models, more
and better complex
models, more and
better sectoral models,
and more and better
regional models.
There is no “one model to rule them all.”

16. DISCUSSION
16

17. Modeling and data analysis in developing long-term strategies
CAPACITY BUILDING FOR MODELING AND ANALYSIS
Marcela Jaramillo Gil
Inter-American Development Bank

18. Marcela Jaramillo
marcelaja@iadb.org
Long-term strategies
IDB’s Approach
18

19. Why decarbonization and what is the role of an LTS?
19

20. To meet Paris it is necessary to achieve
zero net CO2 emissions between 2050 and 2070
20
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
ShareofCO2emissions(LAC)
Transport
Power and heat
Industry
Buildings

21. A world with zero net emissions is
technically possible, building on 5
pillars
21
A world with zero net emission is
an economic opportunity,
not necessarily a cost

22. Governments face three main challenges on the
road from here to there
22

23. 23
Challenge 1: Providing regulations, price signals, and financing that enable
business models for low-carbon solutions

24. 24
Challenge 2: Dealing with the political economy of emission reduction
policies (winners and losers)
24

25. -20%
-100%
Emissionreduction
Time
The objective for the strategy up
to 2025 is to build the foundation
for a deep decarbonization
(not just to achieve a given level
of reduction)
Challenge 3: Aligning short-term NDCs and policies with the need for long-
term decarbonization
25

26. Long-term decarbonization strategies (LTS) recognize the long-term goal,
and help navigate the three challenges in the transition
1. LTSs establish a clear vision of a carbon-free future that
brings prosperity
• Improving public transportation will improve quality of life and
business environment (Costa Rica)
2. LTS allow anticipating costs and manage tradeoffs for a
just transition
• Aligning fiscal rules with decarbonization objectives
3. They are the basis for deciding medium-term objectives
and immediate action
• Costa Rica: 85% electric buses by 2050 -> 30% by 2030
-> update regulations and concessions in 2021
26

27. 27
Strengthen local capacity to
research long-term strategies
1
Supporting the design of LTS
to inform NDCs using robust
analytic tools and processes
2
Supporting LTS and NDC
implementation
3
Thinking Local Planning Beyond Acting Now
With NDC Invest we are supporting countries to advance
work on LTS

28. 28
Strengthen local capacity to
research long-term strategies
1
Supporting the design of LTS
to inform NDCs using robust
analytic tools and processes
2
Supporting LTS and NDC
implementation
3
Thinking Local Planning Beyond Acting Now
With NDC Invest we are supporting countries to advance
work on LTS

29. Mexico’s Climate Change Mid-Century Strategy
The key is to think of short-term targets within long-term
decarbonization pathways
29

30. Currently, academic analysis of emission reduction strategies largely rely on
external expertise: the example of Mexico’s strategy
Massachusetts, USA
Maryland, USA
Netherlands
Pennsylvania, USA
France
Netherlands
Veysey, Jason, Claudia Octaviano, Katherine Calvin, Sara Herreras Martinez, Alban Kitous, James McFarland, and Bob van der Zwaan. 2016. “Pathways to Mexico’s Climate
Change Mitigation Targets: A Multi-Model Analysis.” Energy Economics 56 (May): 587–99.
30

31. DDP-LAC: objectives
To improve the capacity of the LAC region to rely on independent, domestic evaluations to assess
their NDCs, emission reduction plans, and climate policies.
1. Train academic teams and/or think tanks in the use of models they cannot currently use.
2. Generate emission reduction pathways for their respective countries to support a public debate the
implementation of the Paris Agreement.
3. Showcase these models to local policymakers, prove their value to inform policy decisions, and start a
dialogue, using the new modeling capacity to answer a research question of relevance to the national
context.
4. Develop a regional community of practice through regional workshops where teams can compare
their approaches and share lessons learned.
31

32. Improving academic capacity to inform LTS
Models are built directly in country teams and will stay there to be used free of charge and autonomously
by local teams
Teams
Country Local Institution International Institution Sector Focus Model Government focal point
Argentina Fundación Bariloche CIRED - France
Macroeconomic Energy
(Power and transport)
LEAP-IMACLIM
Dirección de CC Min
Ambiente &
Sec. de Escenarios, Min
Energía.
Colombia
Universidad de los
Andes & Rosario
PNNL - USA Energy, land and water GCAM
Dirección de Ambiente y
Desarrollo Sostenible
DNP
Costa Rica
Universidad de Costa
Rica
Royal Institute of
Technology
(KTH) - Sweden
Transport and electricity CRI-IAM-ALPHA Dirección de CC, MINAE.
Ecuador
Escuela Politécnica
Nacional
COPPE, Uni. Federal do
Rio de Janeiro - Brazil
Energy (Power and
transport) and Land Use
ELENA (MESSAGE-based)
Subsectretaria de CC,
MAE
Mexico Tempus Análitica
Evolved Energy Research
- USA
Transport Energy-PATHWAYS INECC and SEMARNAT
Perú
Universidad del
Pacífico
U of Tennessee - USA Land-use POLYSYS
Dirección de CC,
CEPLAN
32

33. DDP-LAC Timeframes / Outputs
2018 2019
1st Regional
Meeting
Colombia – Feb
2nd Regional
Meeting
México – Oct
3rd Regional
Meeting
Costa Rica - March
4th Regional
Meeting
Ecuador - Sep
Work plans
finalized
Models &
definition of
scenarios
Advanced
Narratives & initial
results
Policy question &
DDP scenarios
Model work
& dashboards
completed
Ambition
paper
COP25
Academic
papers &
results of
inter-model
comparison
Early 2020
Training workshops, model development
Initial contact with government
Narratives and scenario development
Finalize model, finalize narratives & scenarios
Continue policy dialogue and clarify policy-relevant questions
Publish results of decarbonization pathways
33

34. DDPLAC is impacting public policy in LAC for LTS design and
implementation
34
Supporting the design of
LTS to inform NDCs using
robust analytic tools and
processes
1
Supporting the design
of LTS to inform NDCs
using robust analytic
tools and processes
2
Supporting LTS and NDC
implementation.
3
Thinking Local Planning Beyond Acting Now

36. ✓ The plan responds to the need to achieve
zero net emissions between 2050 and
2070.
✓ Informs the design of the new NDC in the
country.
✓ It frames decarbonization as an opportunity
to reactivate the national economy.
✓ Define specific actions for the short term.
The Costa Rican Plan sets a target of net zero emissions by 2050

37. Define for each area of action
up to 2022:
Specific objectives, goals,
indicators, activities and key
actors.
The Plan identifies short, medium- and long-term actions in 10
areas of action

38. Robust cost-benefit analysis of
decarbonizing the transport sector
• Involve stakeholders to reflect their goals and ideas
• Simulate large number of possible futures and policies
to explore uncertainty
• Identify robust options using decision-making methods
under uncertainty
• Build local capacity in universities to extend autonomous
and independent policy analysis in Costa Rica
The analysis will be extended to all the other sector in the
decarbonization plan.
38
“Costa Rica will have with the National Decarbonization Plan -
in the transport sector - benefits of $ 19.5 billion.” “In addition
to health benefits and increased productivity that represent a
total of $ 14,3 billion by 2050”.

39. + Otros ministerios
sectoriales.
Policy reforms focus
Electrification of
uses of Energy
Agriculture and
nature-based
solutions
Governance and
MRV for the
decarbonization
Acting now: helping policy reform in Costa Rica

40. What is next?
LTS 2020
40
And launch
DDPLAC2 in 2020

41. Thanks for your attention!
Marcela Jaramillo
marcelaja@iadb.org
41

42. Modeling and data analysis in developing long-term strategies
USING MODELS TO EXPLORE IMPLICATIONS OF
UNCERTAINTIES
Ichiro Sato
WRI

43. Modeling and data analysis in developing long-term strategies
• Uncertainty is a major challenge in developing long-term
strategies
USING MODELS TO EXPLORE IMPLICATIONS OF UNCERTAINTIES
Now 2050
GHG
emissions
?Uncertainties
Technological
innovations
Shocks/crisis
Political/social
dynamics
Economic
development

44. Modeling and data analysis in developing long-term strategies
• Model-based analysis can be used to help identify material
uncertainties, and robust strategies to address them
USING MODELS TO EXPLORE IMPLICATIONS OF UNCERTAINTIES
GHG emissions
in 2050
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario N
..............
MODEL
Strategy A

45. Modeling and data analysis in developing long-term strategies
USING MODELS TO EXPLORE IMPLICATIONS OF UNCERTAINTIES
To learn more, please visit
WRI Working Paper: UNCERTAINTY, SCENARIO ANALYSIS, AND
LONG-TERM STRATEGIES: STATE OF PLAY AND A WAY
FORWARD
https://www.wri.org/publication/uncertainty-scenario-analysis-long-
term-strategies

46. Modeling and data analysis in developing long-term strategies
QUESTION & ANSWER SESSION
Richard Baron
2050 Pathways Platform

47. Modeling and data analysis in developing long-term strategies
LONG-TERM CLIMATE STRATEGIES
UNDER THE PARIS AGREEMENT
2019 WEBINAR SERIES
THANK YOU!
For more information, please visit the Long-Term Climate Strategies website:
https://www.wri.org/climate/long-term-strategies
Subscribe to the newsletter here: http://connect.wri.org/l/120942/2018-04-05/3rr42w
For questions on the webinar series, please contact:
Mary Levine, World Resources Institute (Mary.Levine@wri.org)