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The UNFCCC Policy Landscape Pre Lima
The document discusses the pre-Lima landscape of the UNFCCC, highlighting recent emissions reduction announcements and financial pledges to the Green Climate Fund (GCF) as key developments. It outlines the ongoing discussions on mechanisms such as REDD+ and alternative policy approaches, emphasizing the need for consensus on metrics for greenhouse gas reductions and national adaptation plans. The text indicates that crucial decisions and agreements are expected at upcoming negotiations, particularly regarding Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) and financial frameworks for climate initiatives.
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The UNFCCC Policy Landscape Pre Lima
- 1. THE UNFCCC POLICYLANDSCAPE PRE LIMA Stephen Leonard, Senior Policy Analyst – UNFCCC Center for International Forestry Research 20 November 2014
- 2. SETTING THE STAGE Big Picture • Recent emissions reductions announcements − EU: 40% on 1990 levels by 2030 − China: Emissions peak by 2030 / 20% zero emissions energy by 2030 − USA: 26 – 28% on 2005 levels by 2025 • Financial Pledges being made ‒ Current pledges to GCF around US$9b – target this year of US$10 – 15b • Climate in G20 Communique despite Australian block • However, very few Kyoto Amendment ratifications
- 3. SETTING THE STAGE– FORESTS New Climate Agreement – Possible inclusions: • REDD+ Mechanism • REDD+ Window in the GCF SBSTA • Finalizing work on Safeguards in Lima • Alternative Policy Approaches – adaptation links Finance • GCF Frameworks completed • REDD+ Results Framework agreed in Barbados • Standing Committee on Finance
- 4. THIS PRESENTATION….. •SBs – SBSTA – Metrics / REDD+ Safeguards / REDD+ Alternative Policy Approaches / Clean Development Mechanism – land use – SBI - Adaptation Plans • New Climate Agreement – Elements & INDCs • Finance - Green Climate Fund / Standing Committee on Finance
- 5. ACRONYMS ADP: AdHoc Working Group on the Durban Platform AR5: Fifth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change BRs: Biennial Reports BURs: Biennial Update Reports CDM: Clean Development Mechanism CfRN: Coalition for Rainforest Nations COP: Conference of Parties GCF: Green Climate Fund GEF: Global Environment Facility INDCs: Intended Nationally Determined Contributions IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change JMA: Joint Mitigation Adaptation KP: Kyoto Protocol LUCFA: Land Use Change and Forest Activities LULUCF: Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry MRV: Measuring Reporting and Verification Nat Comms: National Communications NAMAs: Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions NAPs: National Adaptation Plans NAPAs: National Adaptation Programmes of Action SBSTA: Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technical Advice SBI: Subsidiary Body on Implementation SCF: Standing Committee on Finance SIS: Safeguards Information Systems TEM: Technical Expert Meeting UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WS: Work Stream
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- 7. SBSTA 41 –REDD+ SAFEGUARDS INFORMATION SYSTEMS • The ‘need’ for further guidance on Safeguards Information Systems – Unresolved issue for the past 2+ years • Submissions received / compiled – CIFOR Analyses – majority of submissions favor further guidance. – trade-offs between further guidance and the promotion of country-driven approaches and national sovereignty. – need to minimize the burden for creation of and reporting on SIS. – civil society organizations highlighted issues around equity and participation of local people in the process. – Useful guidance on how to develop a country-driven approach.
- 8. SBSTA 41 –ALTERNATIVE POLICY APPROACHES TO REDD+ • Warsaw mandate to agree at SBSTA 40 – no agreement so put back to Lima • Premised on Bolivian Proposal – JMA and Non Markets – alternative to REDD carbon markets approach – not replacement – Expert Meeting / Workshop held in Bonn @ SBSTA 40 – See: https://unfccc.int/files/methods/redd/application/pdf/bolivian_proposal_j ma_05.06.2014.pdf • Debate over whether item remains under REDD or new Agenda item – Brazil pushing to have the item considered outside the REDD Bali Agenda item – Bolivia want it to remain under REDD
- 9. SBSTA 41 –CDM & LULUCF • CDM – under the Kyoto Protocol • SBSTA 40 considered inputs from technical paper • Ongoing consideration in Lima of additional LULUCF areas under the CDM: – Revegetation including agroforestry and silvopastoral; – Cropland management and grazing management • Wetland drainage and rewettingCDM – under the Kyoto Protocol • SBSTA 40 considered inputs from technical paper • Ongoing consideration in Lima of additional LULUCF areas under the CDM: – Revegetation including agroforestry and silvopastoral; – Cropland management and grazing management – Wetland drainage and rewetting
- 10. SBSTA 41 -METRICS • Provide the basis for comparing impacts in multiple GHG reduction efforts • Ongoing debate: ‒ KP =Global Warming Potential – others developed since 1997 ‒ Whether to expand to other metrics / timescales 8 different metrics in AR5 / timescales: 20, 50 and 100 years • Was considered in Bonn – no agreement – Lima • Brazil – need an agreement - critical input to the ADP ‒ Discussion concerning agreement on a ‘common metric’ or ‘basket of metrics’ for the new agreement
- 11. SBI 41 –NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLANS • Much emphasis on the lack of finance: – new climate agreement links: • Finance including via GCF • INDCs • Norway calling for adaptation and forests to be discussed in NAPs context – Expect more focus on forests and adaptation (SCF / GCF) • Countries lacking understanding of technical guidance and seeking greater clarity
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- 13. THE DURBAN PLATFORM(ADP) • Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform • WS 1 - process to develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force applicable to all Parties by 2015 for implementation by 2020 • WS 2 - Pre 2020 - to explore options to close the ambition gap ensuring highest possible mitigation efforts by Parties
- 14. PRE 2020 MITIGATION • TEMs – part of the formal process: – Land Use / Non CO2 Emissions (agriculture) • Purpose: – To enhance pre 2020 mitigation – Provide guidance to UNFCCC Institutions (eg: GCF) • Projects / programmes to finance • Priority areas – Likely to be ongoing to up 2020 • Possible to be broadened to include adaptation
- 15. PRE 2020 MITIGATION • TEMS: Outputs: – Land Use • REDD+ remains high on the agenda • high mitigation & Adaptation potential from forest and agricultural sectors; • a scaling up of finance, technology and capacity building is required; • sectoral policies are required; • participatory multi-stakeholder dialogues should commence at early stages; See: http://unfccc.int/bodies/awg/items/8171.php
- 16. PRE 2020 MITIGATION • Non CO2 Emissions – Agriculture – up to 80% of emissions from the agriculture sector could be reduced by 2030. • Potential policies and actions identified include – soil conservation; – soil productivity and erosion control; – nitrogen use efficiency; – rice management; – Research; and – landscape approach See: http://unfccc.int/bodies/awg/items/8420.php
- 17. NEW AGREEMENT -ADAPTATION • Has had a clear increase in profile • Major emphasis on scaling up finance • Link in with current processes – NAPs, NAPAs and Adaption Fund • Focus on a global adaptation goal – metrics – Vulnerability, resource allocation, economics, research, finance – Proposed process to be launched
- 18. NEW AGREEMENT -MITIGATION • Focus on a global goal - options: – temperature goal that reflects current science; – emissions reduction goal – 40 – 70% below 2010 levels by 2050; – maximum concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere – 350ppm; – Carbon budget • Divide as to whether developing countries should have economy wide emissions reduction targets
- 19. NEW AGREEMENT –REDD+ • Current Non Paper (will form basis of draft text) – see: http://unfccc.int/meetings/lima_dec_2014/session/8532.php • Institutions: REDD+ Mechanism – Possible Institution to be developed by SBSTA – NB: CfRN proposal - informal meetings • Finance: REDD+ Window in the GCF – Would be specific institutional arrangements for REDD+
- 20. NEW AGREEMENT –INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS • CoP 20 – Agreement on scope – draft text out now • Commitments / Contributions – to what extent will they be legally binding in a new agreement? • Parties to communicate their INDCs to the UNFCCC by the first quarter of 2015 • Countries beginning to express that REDD+ likely to be relied on as a contribution – Outstanding question as to what information would be included on REDD+ eg: safeguards information systems summary? • Disagreement remains as to whether to do an ex ante assessment in 2015 – will be an issue in Lima • Likely that INDCS will be broad – Mitigation, Adaptation, Technology, capacity building and finance – Reflected in draft text for Lima decision – Possible links with reporting processes – Biennial Report and Biennial Update Reports and International Assessment and Review and International Consultation and Analyses • Other links – NAPs / NAPAs / NAMAs
- 21. NEW AGREEMENT –CYCLES, RULES, MODALITIES • MRV cycles already in place – BRs / BURs / Nat Comms etc…. – How does this link to INDCs process where MRV is carbon? • Review cycle: adequacy of INDCs • Commitment cycle: emissions reductions / finance etc – Cannot be frozen in time • 5 years or 10 years – 5 year cycles with 10 year indicative targets – 10 year cycles with 5 year mid term review – In line with science - IPCC • Accounting – Most likely area of convergence between LULUCF & REDD+ - common accounting rules • Suggested that there be key Principles across the land sector – Technical work to be done 2015 – 2020 – Land-use change and forest activities (NEW terminology) • Principles – rights / landscapes – What hooks should these principles contain?
- 22. ADP – EXPECTATIONSFOR LIMA • Decision on Pre 2020 mitigation / TEMs • Decision on INDCs – Scope of information – may elaborate on REDD inclusion – Whether there will be an ex ante assessment in 2015 • Elements for a draft negotiating text – BUT – intercessional in February 2015 - fall back!!! – More clarity on Land-Use Change and Forest Activities (LUCFA)
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- 24. STANDING COMMITTEE ONFINANCE • Warsaw Mandate: – Coordination and cohesion of finance and forests – Beyond REDD+ • Eighth Meeting – October in Bonn – Commenced preparations for 2015 Forum – Released Background paper • 2015 Forum on Finance and Forests – May 2015 – Will inform Financial Mechanisms – GCF, GEF, Adaptation Fund – Report to COP 21 (Paris)
- 25. GREEN CLIMATE FUND • Operating entity of the Financial Mechanism • Eighth Board Meeting in October – 36 agenda items • Governance Frameworks now in place • Accreditation Procedure now agreed - Applications have been release – Fast track procedures in place • Resource mobilization process in place – Next meeting 20 November (today) • REDD+ Results Based Payments Framework – see: http://www.gcfund.org/fileadmin/00_c ustomer/documents/MOB201410- 8th/GCF_B.08_08_Rev.01_Initial_Lo gic_Model_fin_20141022.pdf • Limited to Carbon – definition of results as ‘only’ ex post payments? • Recalls Warsaw language on requirements (eg: SIS) – No assessments process in place for safeguards compliance • Lacking – more work to be done – recognition / incentives for non carbon benefits – clear framework in place for Phase 1 & 2 finance
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- 28. SYNERGIES & LANDSCAPES • There was much activity Pre SB 40 / ADP 2.5 • Agriculture Road Map goes through to mid 2016 – New Agreement will be reached in 2015 – Agriculture discussion moving towards mitigation • Mitigation and Adaptation synergies are central to a landscape approach – under developed area – High potential for development going forward – Linked with non markets / alternative policy approaches • REDD+ discussion moving towards adaptation • Common accounting rules – high level principles
- 29. MITIGATION & ADAPTATIONSYNERGIES • Identified as important for the land sector in AR5 • ADP - current non paper includes several linkages • GCF – Additional Adaptation Results Areas not agreed • SCF – Alternative Policy Approaches • SBSTA - Alternative Policy Approaches – JMA – Some Parties have called for international technical guidance and modalities on the issue – Bolivia, Singapore, China, PNG
- 30. ACRONYMS ADP: AdHoc Working Group on the Durban Platform AR5: Fifth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change BRs: Biennial Reports BURs: Biennial Update Reports CDM: Clean Development Mechanism CfRN: Coalition for Rainforest Nations COP: Conference of Parties GCF: Green Climate Fund GEF: Global Environment Facility INDCs: Intended Nationally Determined Contributions IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change JMA: Joint Mitigation Adaptation KP: Kyoto Protocol LUCFA: Land Use Change and Forest Activities LULUCF: Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry MRV: Measuring Reporting and Verification Nat Comms: National Communications NAMAs: Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions NAPs: National Adaptation Plans NAPAs: National Adaptation Programmes of Action SBSTA: Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technical Advice SBI: Subsidiary Body on Implementation SCF: Standing Committee on Finance SIS: Safeguards Information Systems TEM: Technical Expert Meeting UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WS: Work Stream
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