The goal of this activity is for students to evaluate the claims made by others and to learn how to make and support claims of their own. You’ve likely used this activity type throughout the course and in this final version we’ll consider claims about the future. It may be difficult to say anything is true or false when talking about the future, but some of the claims contained on the student “exit ballot” are very likely probabilities, others are near-‐impossibilities, and others are pure speculation. It should be an interesting discussion! Register to explore the whole course here: https://school.bighistoryproject.com/bhplive?WT.mc_id=Slideshare12202017

1. TEACHING MATERIALS
BIG HISTORY PROJECT / UNIT 10 TESTING CLAIMS 1
10
TESTING CLAIMS
The Future
Summary of this activity
The goal of this activity is for students to evaluate the claims made by others and to learn how
to make and support claims of their own. You’ve likely used this activity type throughout the
course and in this final version we’ll consider claims about the future. It may be difficult to say
anything is true or false when talking about the future, but some of the claims contained on
the student “exit ballot” are very likely probabilities, others are near-‐impossibilities, and others
are pure speculation. It should be an interesting discussion!
Version 1: Setting class in motion
1. Have students stand
2. Read the claim and physically place the students in three groups around the room:
those who think it is true, those who think it is false, and those who want more information
to decide.
3. Select one student from each side to explain his or her group’s choice. Ask them to
be persuasive.
4. After the student has explained his or her group’s choice, ask if anyone wants to change
their mind and move.
5. If so, after they move, ask them to explain what persuaded them.
6. Discuss the right answers.
Version 2: Group voting
1. Put students in small groups. Give each group three different colored sheets of paper
to vote with or plan to have them vote with text messaging.
2. Read one of the statements and ask them to discuss if it is true, false, or needs more
information.
3. Then ask each group to vote by holding up the appropriate sheet of paper. Or, if you want,
have one representative from the group send a text message with his or her group’s vote.
4. Call on people to justify their positions.
5. Revote.
6. Discuss the right answers.

2. TEACHING MATERIALS
BIG HISTORY PROJECT / UNIT 10 TESTING CLAIMS 2
Answer key
The 1st and 4th statements are true. The 2nd is false. The 3rd and 5th need more information.
Sample justifications
1. Most scientists and researchers believe that human population will exceed 8 billion in the
next 100 years. This article outlines United Nations projections for a global population
exceeding 10 million by 2100. http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=human-‐pop-‐
ulation-‐growth-‐creeps-‐back-‐up
2. Scientists estimate that the Sun will become a red giant billions of years in the future. As a
low-‐mass, medium-‐size star, our Sun has a very long life cycle and a very long time before it
starts into its red giant phase. When it does, it will grow immensely larger and is likely to
swallow up the current orbit of Earth. However, its gravitational pull may decrease and the
orbits of some of the planets may expand outward. As a medium-‐size star, our Sun will not
become a supernova.
3. In the last two centuries, innovation has kept up with population growth enough to prevent a
Malthusian cycle of famine, but it is hard to say whether humans will be able to solve a likely
food crisis as the population continues to grow.
4. With plate tectonics, the continents are always moving. The landmasses of the Earth have
already gone through a number of different configurations, which geologists sometimes refer
to as the “continent cycles.” Some geologists expect that “Pangaea Ultima” will form about
250 million years in the future. http://www.scotese.com/
5. As global connectivity increases and humans continue to innovate, collective learning will
continue to accelerate among humans. It’s impossible to say whether we’ll connect with
another life form in this unique way.
TESTING CLAIMS
The Future

3. BIG HISTORY PROJECT / UNIT 10 TESTING CLAIMS 1
10
TESTING CLAIMS
The Future
We often wonder what the future holds. What will happen next, to us, to the biosphere, to our planet? It may be
difficult to say anything is true or false when talking about the future, but the correct answer for the statements
below will not always be “need more info.” Some of the claims below are likely probabilities that can be consid-‐
ered true, others are likely impossibilities and therefore false, and others truly do “need more info.”
Use this “ballot card” to vote on the truth of each statement and to make notes as to why you believe something is
true, false, or needs more information to fairly decide.
Human population will surpass 8 billion. TRUE
FALSE
NEED MORE INFO
WHY DO YOU THINK THAT? (Which claim testers did you use: authority, evidence, intuition, logic?)
Our Sun will become a red giant and envelope the inner rocky planets within 1 million years. TRUE
FALSE
NEED MORE INFO
WHY DO YOU THINK THAT? (Which claim testers did you use: authority, evidence, intuition, logic?)
Humans will run out of food. TRUE
FALSE
NEED MORE INFO
WHY DO YOU THINK THAT? (Which claim testers did you use: authority, evidence, intuition, logic?)
The continents will look different in 500 million years. TRUE
FALSE
NEED MORE INFO
WHY DO YOU THINK THAT? (Which claim testers did you use: authority, evidence, intuition, logic?)
Humans will learn collectively with other species, perhaps some from another planet. TRUE
FALSE
NEED MORE INFO
WHY DO YOU THINK THAT? (Which claim testers did you use: authority, evidence, intuition, logic?)