Forecasting by Objective


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what is your forecasting objective, is it to get high accuracy by max R or by min signal tracking or matching the trend results by the out of seasonality model or to reflect latest data period in analysis.

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Forecasting by Objective

  1. 1. AIRPORTS ForecastingAirport ForecastingForecasting by ObjectiveCase Study TALLINN AirportBy: Mohammed S. AwadResearch Scholar – Aviation ManagementTo carry a traffic forecast for an airport is uneasy task,As most of the statistician rely on coefficient of determination R2 to ensurethe fairness of the analysis. In this article we will try to create many scenarios “The only true wisdom is inthat will reflects, what the top management thinks, are they interesting to knowing you know nothing.”rely on R2 ( Classical approach ), are they trying to minimize the errors by ― Socratessetting Signal Tracking to Zero, or they trying to merge long range trendforecast to be targeted ( accumulated ) for the seasonality model, or to requestto reflect the most update and recent input data (recent years/months).Actually all the four scenarios are addressed, in case study of TALLINN Airport.Case Study – TALLINN Airport:Tallinn Airport (Estonian: Lennart Meri Tallinnalennujaam) (IATA: TLL, ICAO: EETN) or Lennart Meri itformerly Ülemiste Airport, is the largest airport inEstonia and home base of the national airline EstonianAir. Tallinn Airport is open to both domestic andinternational flights. It is located approximately 4 kmfrom the centre of Tallinn on the eastern shore of LakeÜlemiste. As Tallinn is located nearest to Asia Pacific ofall EU capitals, this gives Tallinn Airport a majorgeographical advantage for establishing long-haulflights between these two regions.Based on the task of top management, many targetsare designed based on the most realistic forecastingresult, but environment and human factors play animportant role in selection the best scenario, newvisual selection approach may lead also to select rightscenario that can’t be defined by formula, so what isthe best scenario by objective that will lead to the bestforecasting decision.Is it to achieve the highest Accuracy by max R2 ? OrTargeting Signal Tracking to be Zero to minimize error ?Or Merging the trend value based on long range data ( years ) to meet the outcome results of the shortrange data ( months ) seasonality model, Or to select the forecasting result based on visual selectionthat positioning the model to align and fit for latest and recent data.Really that will lead us to examine two set of data to develop a Trend and Seasonality Models.
  2. 2. AIRPORTS ForecastingA- Trend Model ( 15 years data set) Based on these data a trend model is developed and with R2 = 86.1 and Signal Tracking = -1.84, the 2013 Forecasted is = 2,495,900.B- Seasonality Model ( 36 months data set ) Four Scenarios are developed as it is shown in the following table. 1- Maximize R2 2- Setting Signal Tracking = Zero 3- Setting Trend Target to 2,495,900 4- Reflects the latest Input Data ( Visual Approach ) Results : All scenarios shows high values of R2 ( all close values ) while Signal Tracking shows a large divergent with respect to the bond values and the best selection decision is scenario no. 3 (why) as it almost cover three pre-constrained parameters and also the lowest one in the results . Forecasted by Trend Target for 2013 = 2,495,900 Pax R2 = 92.22 % Signal Tracking : 6.662
  3. 3. AIRPORTS ForecastingForecasting of US AirportsBy: Mohammed S. AwadResearch Scholar – Aviation ManagementAirport forecasting is an important issue in Aviationindustry. It becomes an integral parts of transportationplanning. It sets targets and goals for the airports,either for long term or medium term planning. Theprimary statistical methods used in airport aviationactivity forecasting are market share approach,econometric modeling, and time series modeling.While we will use R and Signal Tracking ApproachWashington Dulles International Airport(IATA: IAD, ICAO: KIAD, FAA LID: IAD) is a publicairport in Dulles, Virginia, 26 miles (41.6 km) west ofdowntown Washington, D.C. The airport serves theBaltimore-Washington-Northern Virginiametropolitan area centered on the District ofColumbia. It is named after John Foster Dulles,Secretary of State under Dwight D. Eisenhower. TheDulles main terminal is a well-known landmarkdesigned by Eero Saarinen. Operated by theMetropolitan Washington Airports Authority, DullesAirport occupies 11,830 acres (47.9 km2) straddlingthe border of Fairfax County and Loudoun County,Virginia.R2 = 96.1S. T. = 0.02013 (F) = 11,641,322 PaxDetroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport(IATA: DTW, ICAO: KDTW), usually called DetroitMetro Airport, Metro Airport locally, or simplyDTW, is a major international airport in the UnitedStates covering 7,072-acre (11.050 sq mi; 2,862 ha)in Romulus, Michigan, a suburb of Detroit. It isMichigans busiest airport and one of the worldslargest air transportation hubs.The airport serves as Deltas second busiest hub.Delta, along with SkyTeam partner Air France,occupy the McNamara Terminal.R2 = 92.3S. T. = -42013 (F) = 16,770,937 Pax
  4. 4. AIRPORTS Forecasting Fort Lauderdale–Hollywood International Airport(IATA: FLL, ICAO: KFLL, FAA LID: FLL) is aninternational commercial airport located inunincorporated Broward County, Florida, threemiles (5 km) southwest of the central businessdistrict of Fort Lauderdale. It is also located near thecity of Hollywood and is 21 miles (33.7 km) north ofMiami.R2 = 96.8S. T. = 0.02013 (F) = 12,080,874 PaxCharlotte Douglas International Airport(IATA: CLT, ICAO: KCLT, FAA LID: CLT) is a joint civil-military public international airport located inCharlotte, North Carolina. Established in 1935 asCharlotte Municipal Airport, in 1954 the airport wasrenamed Douglas Municipal Airport after formerCharlotte mayor Ben Elbert Douglas, Sr. The airportgained its current name in 1982 and is currently USAirways largest hub, with service to 175 domestic andinternational destinations as of 2008. In 2009, it wasthe 9th busiest airport in the United States and in2010, the 24th busiest airport in the world bypassenger traffic.R2 = 85.6S. T. = 0.02013 (F) = 21,135,269 PaxLos Angeles International Airport(IATA: LAX, ICAO: KLAX, FAA LID: LAX) is the primaryairport serving the Greater Los Angeles Area, thesecond-most populated metropolitan area in theUnited States. LAX is located in southwestern LosAngeles along the Pacific coast in the neighborhoodof Westchester, 16 miles (26 km) from the downtowncore and is the primary airport of Los Angeles WorldAirports (LAWA), an agency of the Los Angeles citygovernment formerly known as the Department ofAirports.R2 = 97.7S. T. = 42013 (F) = 32,269,576 Pax
  5. 5. AIRPORTS ForecastingDallas/Fort Worth International Airport(IATA: DFW, ICAO: KDFW, FAA LID: DFW) is locatedbetween the cities of Dallas and Fort Worth, Texas,and is the busiest airport in the U.S. state of Texas.It generally serves the Dallas–Fort Worthmetropolitan area.DFW is the fourth busiest airport in the world interms of aircraft movements. In terms of passengertraffic, it is the eighth busiest airport in the world.It is the largest hub for American Airlines. DFWAirport is considered to be an Airport City.R2 = 97.3S. T. = 0.762013 (F)= 28,183,463 PaxMinneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport(IATA: MSP, ICAO: KMSP, FAA LID: MSP) is a jointcivil-military public use airport. Located in a portionof Hennepin County, Minnesota outside of any cityor school district, within ten miles (16 km) of bothdowntown Minneapolis and downtown Saint Paul,it is the largest and busiest airport in the five-stateupper Midwest region of Minnesota, Iowa, SouthDakota, North Dakota, and Wisconsin.R2 = 95.3S. T. = -32013 (F)= 16,650,355 PaxChicago Midway International Airport(IATA: MDW, ICAO: KMDW, FAA LID: MDW), is anairport in Chicago, Illinois, United States, locatedon the citys southwest side, eight miles (13 km)from Chicagos Loop.Dominated by low-cost carrier Southwest Airlines,Midway is the Dallas-based carriers largest focuscity as of 2011. Both the Stevenson Expresswayand Chicago Transit Authoritys Orange Lineprovide passengers access to downtown Chicago.Midway Airport is the second largest passengerairport in the Chicago metropolitan area, as well asthe state of Illinois, after Chicago OHareInternational Airport.R2 = 96S. T. = 42013 (F)= 9,397,884 Pax