This document analyzes the impact of natural gas crisis on Pakistan's economic growth. It begins with an introduction on Pakistan's reliance on natural gas as an energy source. It then describes the literature review, data and methodology, research hypotheses, data sources, and results of statistical analyses conducted. The key findings are that the relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth is insignificant based on bi-variant and multivariate regression analyses. The document concludes with policy recommendations for the government to reduce natural gas crisis through lowering prices, increasing exploration, improving infrastructure, and controlling wastage.

1. IMPACT OF NATURAL GAS CRISIS ON
ECONOMIC GROWTH OF PAKISTAN
PREPARED BY: ABDUL WAQAR KHAN

2. INTRODUCTION
 Natural gas is a vital source of power generation.
 Pakistan are not expected to attract asset in founding costly fuel
strategies and therefore natural gas becomes the substitute
 Meanwhile 2000, natural gas and petroleum are the main bases
of energy in Pakistan involve of 50% and 29% of total energy
intake separately
 Natural gas is a leading fuel in Pakistan accounting for 47% of
main energy call in 2007

3. LITERATURE REVIEW
 The Review of Literature Highlights Three Vital Facts
 First, the results are not common and nonexistence of country particular
 Second, the valuation procedures are less correct in certain studies particularly those using bivariate model is
subjected to misplaced variable biasness
 Third, the example phases of study are not existing without in view of the present progress

4. DATA AND METHODOLOGY
EG = β0+ β1HH + β2C1 + β3C2 + β4F + β5P + β6ID + β7T + µ
EG Stands for Economic Growth
HH Means Household Consumer
C1 Means Commercial Sector
C2 Means Cement Sector
F Means Fertilizer Sector
P Means Power
DI Means Domestic Industry
T Means Transportation (CNG)
β0 Means Constant Term
µ Means Error Term

5. RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS
 In this report the searcher developed a testable hypothesis to examine the effect of multiple variables of
Gas Crisis on economic growth for this purpose hypothesis were as follow:
 H1: There is relationship between natural gas resource and economic growth.
 H2: There is relationship between natural gas resource and economic growth significant

6. DATA SOURCES
 The time-series data taken from the period from 2000 to
2018 have been taken from Pakistan Economic Survery
(https://www.finance.gov.pk/survey_1920.html)
 The data of Gas Crisis and Economic Growth of Pakistan
taken from World Development Indicator: Data Bank

7. NATURAL GAS DATA

8. SCATERED DIAGRAM
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
SCATERED DIAGRAM
Households Commercial Cement Fertilizer
Power SSGC* Industry Transport CNG**
Total
Natural Gas Consumption
Linear (Total
Natural Gas Consumption)

9. BAR GRAPH
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000
2000-01
2002-03
2004-05
2006-07
2008-09
2010-11
2012-13
2014-15
2016-17
2018-19 P
BAR GRAPH
Natural Gas Consumption

10. LINE GRAPH
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
P
LINE GRAPH
Natural Gas Consumption

11. DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
Natural Gas Consumption
Mean 1198837.842
Standard Error 44019.98739
Median 1240671
Mode #N/A
Standard Deviation 191878.6765
Sample Variance 36817426512
Kurtosis 0.761983042
Skewness -1.123479589
Range 686629
Minimum 768068
Maximum 1454697
Sum 22777919
Count 19

12. SIMPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.842143457
R Square 0.709205602
Adjusted R
Square 0.691030952
Standard Error 103924.2231
Observations 18
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 4.21444E+11 4.21444E+11 39.0216926 1.16671E-05
Residual 16 1.72804E+11 10800244144
Total 17 5.94248E+11
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 933996.0819 47016.76602 19.86517068 1.06207E-12 834324.9904 1033667.173 834324.9904 1033667.173
Fiscal
Year 29493.27141 4721.390217 6.246734555 1.16671E-05 19484.37127 39502.17155 19484.37127 39502.17155

13. MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 1
R Square 1
Adjusted R Square 1
Standard Error 0.219414395
Observations 18
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 7 5.94248E+11 84892530462 1.76335E+12 1.22815E-59
Residual 10 0.481426766 0.048142677
Total 17 5.94248E+11
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept -0.496504075 1.119493794 -0.443507662 0.666840188 -2.990891691 1.997883542 -2.990891691 1.997883542
Households 1.000004302 4.31971E-06 231497.958 5.5671E-50 0.999994677 1.000013927 0.999994677 1.000013927
Commercial 0.999956506 5.68924E-05 17576.28021 8.74643E-39 0.999829742 1.00008327 0.999829742 1.00008327
Cement 1.000014212 2.76808E-05 36126.6545 6.49865E-42 0.999952536 1.000075889 0.999952536 1.000075889
Fertilizer 1.000004988 3.89634E-06 256652.5244 1.98447E-50 0.999996306 1.00001367 0.999996306 1.00001367
Power 0.999998351 1.30665E-06 765316.1334 3.57019E-55 0.999995439 1.000001262 0.999995439 1.000001262
Industry 1.000002611 3.54559E-06 282041.2046 7.72636E-51 0.999994711 1.000010511 0.999994711 1.000010511
Transport CNG** 0.99999787 8.16096E-06 122534.3369 3.22495E-47 0.999979686 1.000016053 0.999979686 1.000016053

14. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
 P-Value > 0.05 (insignificant relationship in both by Bi-variant regression analysis as well as multivariate
regression analysis)
 The P-Values we obtained by Multiple Regression analysis shows greater than 0.05 shows insignificance
relationship.
 Correlation values of “r = 0.70” suggest that there is a weak relationship
 Multiple Regression analysis Values of “r = 1” which means a strong relationship

15. POLICY RECOMMENDATION
 The Government of Pakistan must take a necessary step for reducing Natural Gas Crises in which is
primary needs for all sectors. Government reduce prices on natural gas resources which would be reason
for industries development and economic stability.
 Government should discover natural gas resources which is compulsory for the domestic growing sector
and household and improve infrastructure for smooth function and it creates many benefits for an
economy.
 Government must prepare strong policy and take necessary action against those who are damage
infrastructure of natural gas in a county, and keep awareness for control wastage of natural resources as
well.