This document discusses decision modeling and its implementation to support strategic management. It discusses how analytics can help optimize business activities by using behavioral models to emphasize long-term value drivers. Specifically, predictive modeling can help businesses make smarter strategic decisions by predicting business cycles and knowing when and how to invest or take other actions. The approach involves using non-linear predictive modeling to try and position businesses to always be in a profit cycle. Major business activities discussed include providing solutions in sports, franchising, and finance industries through consulting and applying data science methodologies.

1. Decision Modeling & Implementation
Support for Strategic Management
April 2017
By Cem Şengezer

2. K.I.S.S. METHODS

3. INTRODUCTION

4. CORE of Modeling: Analytics

5. % 30 work hour
(hindsight, experience)
data processing
% 70 work hour
(insight, foresight)
information /optimization
Business Analytics

6. POSITIONING
STRATEGY
BOARD
TACTICAL
BOARD
ANALYTICS (%70 work)
(predictive, prescriptive)
ANALYTICS (%30 work)
(descriptive, diagnostic)
Data ETL
(extract, transform, load)
Various metrics (raw data from different sources )
INFORMATION
DEMAND
INFORMATION
SUPPLY

7. New Edge to Decision Support
OLD
Reliance on
survey data
Focus on
outcomes of
consumer
decisions
OLD
Measuring
business
effects
Use
descriptive
models
OLD
Focus on
short-run
profitability
NEW
Insights from
marketplace
data
Examine the
process
consumers
use to make
decisions
NEW
Optimize
activities
Use models
based on
behavioral
process
NEW
Emphasize
drivers of
long term
value

8. Critical Problems
solved with modeling
• Calibration of proper response (corporate…) in / before turbulence
• When
• How
• Investment boosting
• When
• How

9. BUSINESS ANALOGY

10. ECONOMY IS CYCLICAL

11. A well known example about cause-effect :
fashion business cycle determined by stock market

12. Behavior
cycles are
socio
economic
driven
Business Model Canvas

13. VALUE PROPOSITION

14. THE APPROACH
Business is cyclical
Need of decision models to predict cycles
GOAL:
Try to create unique solutions:
“always” in profit cycle
HOW:
Non Linear Predictive Modeling

15. VALUE PROPOSITION
Right Time DECISION SUPPORT
•Know your risk/reward before acting (investment, improvement…)
•Right time, real time
->Not on your time but market time
•Investment automation
->helps you make decision at the right time with the right budget

16. Full Service Value Proposition
Pain relievers
(moderate benefits
will replace low
margins –below
avg.)
Gain boosters
(high benefits
will replace
moderate
margins - avg.)
Smarter
Strategic
decisions

17. MAJOR BUSINESS ACTIVITIES

18. SPORTS INDUSTRY:
•Solution provider for every partners in industry
•Freelance Consultant
•Data science methodologies supportting sports science
•Some links:
•www.sportsmedicineturkey.com/en/Hakkimizda/Danismanlarimiz
•http://www.futbolekonomi.com/index.php/in-english/crisis-in-football/3984-
nedensellik-analizi-ned-ensellik-analizi-afutbol.html
•www.slideshare.net/vizyoner/black-box-analytics
•www.slideshare.net/vizyoner/value-proposition-for-sports-industry

19. FRANCHISING INDUSTRY:
•Finding futur consuming locations
•Freelance Consultant
•Up sell with gamification methodologies
•Some links:
•www.bayimolurmusun.com.tr/haber/1995
•www.slideshare.net/vizyoner/black-box-analyticsfranch

20. FINANCE INDUSTRY:
•Algorithmic trading methodologies applied for different markets
•Freelance Consultant
•Trade coaching
•Some links:
•www.paraborsa.net/kategori/yazarlar/cem-sengezer/

21. CRISIS MANAGEMENT CASE STUDIES

22. Each problem that I solved became a rule, which served afterwards to
solve other problems (René Descartes)
cem@momentumdanismanlik.com
Cem Şengezer
www.cemsengezer.com