Towards Inclusive Growth

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Towards an Inclusive Growth in South Asia: Role of Regional Cooperation

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  • Productivity at the end of the day is an important determinant of economies of scale and Competitiveness and impacts exports
  • Productivity at the end of the day is an important determinant of economies of scale and Competitiveness and impacts exports
  • Productivity at the end of the day is an important determinant of economies of scale and Competitiveness and impacts exports
  • Planning commission in India and Pakistan have been rocked incidently at the sametime by the poverty debates in both countires. Sadly both are due to data issues. When basic data on poverty is hidden from the masses on account of political sensitivity, making informed policy decisions becomes far more difficult.
  • Productivity at the end of the day is an important determinant of economies of scale and Competitiveness and impacts exports
  • Productivity at the end of the day is an important determinant of economies of scale and Competitiveness and impacts exports
  • Productivity at the end of the day is an important determinant of economies of scale and Competitiveness and impacts exports
  • Productivity at the end of the day is an important determinant of economies of scale and Competitiveness and impacts exports
  • Productivity at the end of the day is an important determinant of economies of scale and Competitiveness and impacts exports
  • Trade-Poverty Nexus (Growth Commission Report)Connecting People and Places (Visa issues during India-Pakistan MFN talks)Youth must engage  it’s a young population…..while ICT empowers them…they need to be engaged at policy level…let youth write their own vision….Deverajan….Pakistani youth survey about entering political parties….Like preferential businessmen…special exchange of youth must take place. Borders should be erased for them…in the name of child curiosity.
  • Learning from each other: Success of community-led projects in Pakistan such as Organi pilot project, success of NGO driven social protection framework in Bangladesh, success of post-conflict growth strategy in Sri Lanka, managing conflict-induced migration in urban areas of Nepal. Learning from China: We still don’t know how SA will behave in response to volitility in chinese economy. Yesterday we saw two very different views…while some said that Chinese growth was good for SA exports, an exporter from BAN got up and said that we have zero beneift of any trading arrangements with China. Need to thrash out moreCosts of non-cooperation: Yesterday Sri Lanka’s Senior Minister informed that India is not representing the views of South Asia in G-20 on the other hand we see Pakistan and Bangladesh protesting with EU about any possible India-EU trade relations that are preferential. So SA’s countries are still fighting on foreign turf and not on SAARC platform.
  • Services-led growth will only be sustainable if your services are tradeable…the most easiest way to trade services is with you neighbours. We hope that some consensus is quickly reached regarding the SA frameowrk on trade in services. In the interest of food security the current trade regulations should be particularly facilitated. Only 4 percent is intra-regional agriculture trade. All the talk about food bank will not work until you have buffer management and each country complies to it strictly. The talk about food security not embedded in macroeconomic policies.
  • Towards Inclusive Growth

    1. 1. Towards an Inclusive Growth in South Asia: Role of Regional Cooperation Dr. Vaqar Ahmed Sustainable Development Policy Institute 23-10-2011 1
    2. 2. Economic Growth in Developing Regions 1960s-2000s 10 9 East Asia & Pacific 8 7.2 7 Latin America & 6.1 6 Caribbean% Growth 5.4 5.2 Europe & Central 5 Asia 4 Middle East & 3.0 3 North Africa South Asia 2 1 0 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s South Asia has been the fastest growing region since 1990s
    3. 3. Investment in Developing Regions 35Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) 30 25 20 15 1960s 10 1970s 5 1980s 0 1990s 2000s Investment has been increasing since 1960s
    4. 4. Productivity in Asia 1961 - 2000 1.02 1.02 1.01Change in TFP 1.01 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99
    5. 5. Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day 0 10 20 50 60 30 40 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 South Asia 1997 1999 2001Poverty declined but not by much! 2003 2005 Poverty in Asia 1981 - 2010 2007 2009
    6. 6. Poverty in Asia 1981 - 2010 90Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day 80 70 60 50 40 South Asia 30 China 20 10 0 1981 1991 2007 1983 1985 1987 1989 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2009 China halved poverty during the same period
    7. 7. Poverty in Asia 1981 - 2010 90Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day 80 70 60 50 South Asia 40 China 30 Indonesia 20 10 0 1981 1991 1983 1985 1987 1989 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Indonesia halved it during the same period
    8. 8. Why Slow Progress in Poverty & Inequality? Sustaining growth was difficult Incomplete budgetary and sectoral reforms Keeps population Inadequate attention stuck in low wage trap to human capital / does not allow decent employment
    9. 9. Health in Developing Regions 12 East Asia & PacificHealth expenditure, total (% of 10 Latin America & Caribbean 8 Europe & Central GDP) Asia 6 Middle East & North 4 Africa Sub-Saharan Africa 2 South Asia 0 2009 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 South Asia spending less than Sub-Saharan Africa on Health
    10. 10. Education in Developing Regions 7 East Asia & PacificPublic spending on education (% of 6 Latin America & 5 Caribbean Europe & Central 4 Asia GDP) Middle East & North 3 Africa Sub-Saharan Africa 2 South Asia 1 0 1975 1985 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 South Asia spending less than Sub-Saharan Africa on Education
    11. 11. Missing Link in Development • Large focus on brick and Hardware mortar (Infrastructure) • Poor management of existing assets GoverningInstitutions Existence of(Software) Institutions • Infrastructure financing difficult  Regulated markets Institutional efficacy is more important than institutional purity
    12. 12. Global Governance Indicators Rank out of 145 Countries Burden of Labour Property Electricity Corruption Govt. Market ICT Use Rights & Telecom Regulations EfficiencyMalaysia 37 26 8 20 48 57China 44 43 21 36 69 74Sri Lanka 64 54 32 117 79 100India 99 63 96 81 116 117Pakistan 104 105 76 136 126 111Bangladesh 128 112 89 100 137 132Nepal 126 121 103 128 141 128Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2011-12
    13. 13. Regional Approach to Fighting Poverty Trade-Poverty Nexus Empowering Connecting and people and Engaging places Youth 13
    14. 14. Search for South Asian Growth Model Highlight lessons from South Asia Learning Identify and collectively quantify costs from Chinese of non- and East Asian cooperation experiences 14
    15. 15. Search for South Asian Growth Model Services-led growth Disaster Management Food Security (Climate Change) 15
    16. 16. Thank You www.sdpi.orgvaqar@sdpi.org 16

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