Is water a limiting factor for population growth in South Australia?

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Professor Graeme Hugo presents the fourth installment of the Science Seminar Series entitled Is water a limiting factor for population growth in South Australia

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Is water a limiting factor for population growth in South Australia?

  1. 1. The Environment Institute Where ideas grow Professor Graeme Hugo Is water a limiting factor for population growth in South Australia?
  2. 2. Outline of Presentation Introduction Population and Water: A Global Perspective South Australia’s Contemporary Population • Growth • Composition • Distribution Population and Water Population Planning and Policy in South Australia Conclusion
  3. 3. Population and Water: The Supply/Demand Equation Supply Demand Rainfall Population Number Runoff Population Characteristics Capture Population Distribution Storage Use per capita Recycling Other Uses Pipelines - Agriculture Desalination - Industry
  4. 4. Global Population: 2009 Source: U.N. 2009, p.1 Population (millions) Major Area 1950 1975 2009 2050 World 2,529 4,061 6,829 9,150 More developed regions 812 1,047 1,233 1,275 Less developed regions 1,717 3,014 5,596 7,875 Least developed countries 200 357 835 1,672 Other less developed countries 1,517 2,657 4,761 6,202 Africa 227 419 1,010 1,998 Asia 1,403 2,379 4,121 5,231 Europe 547 676 732 691 Latin America and Caribbean 167 323 582 729 Northern America 172 242 348 448 Oceania 13 21 35 51
  5. 5. World Population by Region at the Turn of Three Centuries: 1800, 1900 and 2000 Source: U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision
  6. 6. Projected Population Change by Region, 2005 - 2050 Source: C.Haub, 2005 World Population Data Sheet (2005)
  7. 7. Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 31
  8. 8. Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 98
  9. 9. Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 99
  10. 10. Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 102
  11. 11. Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 103
  12. 12. Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 103
  13. 13. Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 128
  14. 14. At A Global Level (World Water Assessment Programme 2009) • Need to progress toward zero population growth as soon as possible • Need to better manage water systems to achieve development objectives and sustain development • Decision making on water seeking synergies and selecting appropriate trade offs
  15. 15. Contemporary Population Growth Rates (% pa) Source: ESCAP 2008; Population Reference Bureau 2007 and 2008; ABS 2008 Country/Region Year Rate Per Annum World 2007-08 1.2 LDCs 2007-08 1.4 MDCs 2007-08 0.5 Europe and the New Independent States 2007-08 0.4 North America 2007-08 0.9 ESCAP Region 2007-08 1.0 Indonesia 2007-08 1.1 Australia 2007-08 1.7 South Australia 2007-08 1.1
  16. 16. Australia and South Australia: Rate of Population Growth per Annum, 1947 to 2008 Source: ABS 1983 and ABS Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 South Australia Australia 2.5 2.0 Percent 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1968 1995 1947 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1998 2001 2004 2007 Year Note: Data are for Calendar Years
  17. 17. Projections of the Population of Australia and South Australia Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data and Projections 2008 and Planning SA Australia South Australia ABS 2005 ABS 2008 ABS 2005 ABS 2008 2M in Series B Series B 2051 2006 Actual 20.7 20.7 1.57 1.57 1.57 2007 Actual 21.0 21.0 1.58 1.58 1.58 2021 Projected 23.9 25.6 1.63 1.81 1.73 2051 Projected 28.0 34.2 1.58 2.16 2.01
  18. 18. Population Growth is a Function of: • Mortality • Fertility • Migration
  19. 19. South Australia: Total Population Growth Showing the Natural Increase and Net Migration Components, 1947 to 2008 Source: ABS 1997 and Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 Number Net Migration 15,000 10,000 5,000 Natural Increase 0 1947 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Year
  20. 20. Australia: Expectation of Life at Birth, 1870-2007 Source: Hugo 1986 and ABS Deaths Bulletins Expectation of Life at Birth Males Females 1947 66.1 70.6 2007 79.0 83.7
  21. 21. Australia: Expectation of Life at Age 50, 1901-1910, 1970-1972 and 2007 Source: ABS Year Males Females 1901-1910 21.2 23.7 1970-1972 23.0 28.3 2007 31.4 35.2
  22. 22. Persons Aged 65 Years and Over with Disabilities Source: ABS 2005
  23. 23. Birth cohort crude prevalence of obesity (BMI ≥ 30) among males between 1991 and 2008 Source: SA Department of Health MALES . 50 Proportion obese (BMI>30) 40 30 20 10 0 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Year of survey 1981-1995 (Gen Y) 1965-1980 (Gen X) 1946-1964 (Baby Boomers) 1925-1945 (Silent Gen & WWII) Pre 1925 (GI Gen) FEMALES 50 Proportion obese (BMI>30) 40 30 20 10 0 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Year of survey 1981-1995 (Gen Y) 1965-1980 (Gen X) 1946-1964 (Baby Boomers) 1925-1945 (Silent Gen & WWII) Pre 1925 (GI Gen) NB: Insufficient numbers for Gen Y (1991-2003) and GI Gen (2005-2008) cohorts resulted in exclusion from analysis.
  24. 24. Fertility Australia: Total Fertility Rate, 1901 to 2007 Source: CBCS Demography and ABS Births Australia, various issues
  25. 25. Total Fertility Rate(a): States and Territories Source: ABS 2007, Australian Social Trends
  26. 26. 2007-8 COMPONENTS OF GROWTH Births 285,653 Deaths 142,039 Natural Increase 145,617 Net Migration 213,715 Population Increase 1.71 percent
  27. 27. Australia: A Country of Immigration • 24 percent born overseas • 26 percent Australia-born with an overseas-born parent(s) • 809,628 persons temporarily present at 30/6/08 • 149,365 incoming permanent settlers in 2007-08 • 56,575 “onshore” settlers in 2007-08
  28. 28. Record Australian Migration 2007-8 • 206,135 permanent migrants • Net overseas migration: 235,900 • 61 percent of population increase • 457s – 110,570 • Students – 278,194 • WHM – 154,148 • Total Temporary Residents – 542,902
  29. 29. Intended State and Territory Destinations of Permanent Additions Source: ABS 2007, Australian Social Trends; DIAC 2008 1996-97 2007-08 % % 000 New South Wales 43.7 31.7 65.2 Victoria 21.7 25.2 52.0 Queensland 15.8 19.3 39.7 South Australia 3.8 6.3 13.0 Western Australia 11.6 14.0 28.8 Other (a) 2.3 2.8 5.8 Australia (b) 100.0 100 205.9 (a) Other includes Tasmania, NT, ACT and Other Territories (b) Total includes those for w hich state and territory destinations w ere not know n
  30. 30. South Australia: Net Overseas Migration, 1979 to 2008 Source: ABS Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues 16,000 12 14,000 10 Net Overseas Migration to 12,000 SA % of National Intake 8 10,000 Persons Per cent 8,000 6 6,000 4 4,000 2 2,000 0 0 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Year Ending 30 June
  31. 31. Australia: Settler Arrivals by State According to Whether They are State Specific and Regional Migration Scheme Migrants or Other Migrants, 2006-07 Source: DIAC Population Flows: Immigration Aspects, various issues; DIAC Immigration Update, various issues
  32. 32. Changes in Composition of the Population • Ageing • Shifting ethnic composition • Socio-economic composition • Education levels
  33. 33. South Australia: Age-Sex Structure, 2001 and 2006 Source: ABS 2006 Census Time Series Profile 85+ 80-84 75-79 Males Females 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 Age Group 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 Persons 2001 2006
  34. 34. Wittert, 2006
  35. 35. South Australia: Age and Sex Distribution of the Population, 2006 and Projected 2031 Source: ABS 2006 Census and ABS 2005 Projections 85+ Females Males 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 Age Group 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 Persons 2006 2031
  36. 36. Structural Ageing: South Australia: Change by Age: 2004- 2010, 2004- 2020 Source: ABS Projections 2005, Series B 80 60 2004-2010 (1.57 m) Percentage Change 2004-2020 (1.62 m) 40 20 0 -20 -40 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85+ Age
  37. 37. Structural Ageing: South Australia: Change by Age: 2006-2021, 2006-2031 Source: ABS Projections 2008, Series B, based on Jackson 2004 140 120 2006-2021 (1.81 m) Percentage Change 100 2006-2031 (1.95 m) 80 60 40 20 0 -20 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85+ Age
  38. 38. The Demography of Ageing in Australia Over the Next 25 Years • Numbers aged 65+ will double • Proportion of population aged 65+ will almost double • Characteristics of older population will change • Where older people live will change
  39. 39. The Challenge • The closing gap between the numbers of working age and dependent aged populations. • Greatly increased numbers in the older age groups with high levels of demand in high cost areas of health and aged care services.
  40. 40. Meeting the Challenge Strategies for Baby Boomers • Increased Age at Retirement • Increased saving and preparation for retirement • Reduced obesity and improved health Strategies for the Rest of the Working Age Groups • Increased productivity • Increased workforce participation Strategies in the Health and Aged Care Sectors • Improved efficiency • Preventative health • Better models of funding and provision
  41. 41. • Part of the strategy will require at least maintaining the size of the workforce or slightly increasing it at the same time as the older population is increasing rapidly
  42. 42. The Population and Water Issue “ That Australia is a dry continent is an intrinsic part of our national ethos, and the present distribution of population is in large measure related to the supply of water and the disposal of effluents. ….The availability of water constitutes one of the major factors in determining the size and distribution of Australia’s population” CSIRO 1973 – quoted in National Population Inquiry 1975 p 719-720
  43. 43. The Mismatch Between Water and Population (Nix 1988, 72) Far North Southern Australia Australia (%) (%) Population 2 82 Potentially Arable Land 4 65 Annual Mean Surface Run Off 52 27
  44. 44. By far the largest volumes of uncommitted water are in northern Australia and Western Tasmania. In the most heavily populated regions of south western and south eastern Australia surface waters are committed to a high degree and the consequences of climate change are potentially most serious Pittock and Nix 1986
  45. 45. Australian Rainfall 2006
  46. 46. Australia: Rainfall and Population in 2006 % of Population Percent of Australian rainfall 2006 2006 2006 population Growth rate Land Area Below average 89.6 17,749,462 0.98 38 Average 7.23 1,432,090 0.70 18 Above average 3.17 628,865 -1.57 44
  47. 47. How Has Australia Dealt with the Water/Population Issue? The twentieth century solution to supplying water to a rapidly increasing population with increasing per capita consumption levels was an engineering one …. “There was a comforting belief that there was always sufficient supplies available and all that was required was application of engineering skills to deliver them” (Troy, 2008,188)
  48. 48. In South Australia (Fenner, 1929, 118) …water supply, combined with and dependent on rainfall, is the dominating geographical control of population in the State. All that has been done in the face of adverse conditions provide an excellent example of the way in which man (“nature’s insurgent Son”) has in the first place adapted himself to the geographic conditions, and in the second place, by the exercise of his ingenuity and skill, has turned on his environment and shaped it to his will”
  49. 49. Growth of Population and Reservoir Capacity, 1986-2006 Source: ABS and SA Water; Fenner, 1929, p.118. (Hugo, Forthcoming)
  50. 50. In my view we are faced with a dilemma. Firstly in the short to medium term we need to increase population as part of our strategy to offset the effects of ageing of the baby boomers. Secondly water and other environmental considerations indicate the need to work toward a stable population with a balance of working and non working age groups in the medium to long term.
  51. 51. STATE STRATEGIC PLAN POPULATION TARGETS (2007) Target 1.22: Total Population “Increase South Australia’s population to 2 million by 2050, rather than the projected pop’n decline. Interim target of 1.64 million by 2014”. Revised to 2 million in 2032. Target 1.23: Interstate Migration “Reduce net loss to interstate to zero by 2010 with a positive inflow from 2010-14” Target 1.24: Overseas Migration “Match SA’s share of international migrants to Australia with the State’s share of the overall national pop’n over the next 10 years. Net overseas gain to be 8,500 by 2014”. Target 1.25: Fertility “Maintain at TFR of 1.7” Target 5.9: Regional Populations “Maintain and develop viable regional population levels for sustainable communities. Keep share at 18 percent.”
  52. 52. South Australia: Population if Current Rate of Growth Maintained 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2006 1,558,230 2007 1,584,513 2008 1,601,821 2011 1,629,624 2011 1,651,464 2011 1,655,756 2021 1,782,375 2021 1,831,481 2021 1,849,002 2031 1,949,444 2030 2,010,215 2029 2,019,716 2034 2,002,554 2031 2,031,122 2031 2,064,803 2041 2,132,173 2041 2,252,523 2041 2,305,789 2050 2,311,228 2050 2,472,346 2050 2,546,635
  53. 53. South Australia’s Population Policy • First in the nation to initiate a population policy • Strengths – See population as a key element in economic policy – consideration of each demographic process – Recognition of the short term impact of the ageing of the baby boom – basis for community discussion • Weaknesses – Targets without any empirical rationale – needs to more explicitly build in environmental factors – Need for more regional community and local level consideration – Too Adelaide focussed
  54. 54. The 30 Year Plan for Adelaide – Population Policies • 560,000 people over 30 years added to the population • 258,000 dwellings • Actively encourage inward interstate migration and reduce outward migration of working age people • Retain “regional migration status” to attract a higher proportion of skilled migrants
  55. 55. The 30 Year Plan Strengths • An integrated plan – much needed basis for discussion • Adopts a functional definition of Adelaide region Weaknesses • What is the empirical basis of the 560,000 population increase over the 30 Years? • At least implicit that most growth will be of young working families • Concern at whether limited high quality agricultural land will be protected
  56. 56. The Need for Dialogue Rather than Debate • Need to recognise that there are environmental constraints on population in Australia and factor them in to all planning. • Population planning and environmental planning should not be totally separate activities • Need to better understand these constraints and how population and environment are inter-related. • Little is known about this complex relationship and there is a need for an evidence base to inform policy. • Need for environmental science and population science to work together in teaching, research and policy.
  57. 57. • The objective of population policy should be to facilitate sustainability. • The discussion about population and water has been dominated by interest groups and single dimensional solutions. • The need is for a comprehensive consideration of economic, environmental, social, cultural and demographic elements of sustainability. • The policy must be evidence-based and the result of significant and representative consultation across the community.
  58. 58. • Population policy must not be a substitute for sound economic, environmental, social inclusion and good governance policies but should support them. • Population, Society, Economy and Environment are related to each other in complex ways. Population policy is not a “sliver bullet” solution. • There will be trade-offs and compromises to derive the best outcome for the community
  59. 59. Conclusion • Population and water issues in (South) Australia are manageable. • However immediate action and a conceptual shift will be necessary. • The need is for less confrontation and more collaboration and co-operation to develop strategies which will work, and are in the interests of all Australians. • There must be more and better evidence produced and wider community involvement in the discourse.
  60. 60. The Environment Institute Where ideas grow Next Seminar: 11 September Professor David Richardson 50 years of invasion ecology – the legacy of Charles Elton

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