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Review and outlook of Mongolia’s
investment environment
Bilguun Ankhbayar
MIBG SC
Current state
3.91₮
4.16₮
4.89₮
5.50₮
6.14₮
6.57₮
-1.30%
6.40%
17.30%
12.30%
11.60%
7.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
0.00₮
1.00₮
2.00₮
3.00₮
4.00₮
5.00₮
6.00₮
7.00₮
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP (2005 base) GDP GrowthTrillion MNT GDP grpwth
%
2009-2014 GDP vs Growth
₮1,000
₮1,100
₮1,200
₮1,300
₮1,400
₮1,500
₮1,600
₮1,700
₮1,800
₮1,900
2009-2014 USD vs MNT
$0.62
$1.69
$4.71
$4.45
$2.49
$0.75
$1.30
$1.71
$2.78
$3.33 $3.43
$4.00
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
FDI Government budget
2009-2014 FDI vs Gov Spending
₮0.00
₮0.50
₮1.00
₮1.50
₮2.00
₮2.50
2009-2014 Monthly unemployment benefit
cost
Billion MNT
The cause for drop in FDI
₮0.00
₮100.00
₮200.00
₮300.00
₮400.00
₮500.00
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
Turquoise Hill Resources share price performance
(2009-2014)
2009
Explore-124
Drill-67
2010
Explore-173
Drill-108
2011
Explore-302
Drill-190
2012
Explore-324
Drill-206
2013
Explore-142
Drill-79
Parliament
reviews OT
IA draft
OT IA
signed
68% windfall
profit tax
canceled
2010 budget
announced
at $758
million
$1.5 billion
was secured
from EBRD
and IFC
2011 budget
approved at
$2.1 billion
20 parliament
members petition
to change the OT
IA 34%-50%
Rio
increases
stake to
48.5%
MRAM revokes
SouthGobi
licenses in
relation to Chalco
bid
SEFIL passed
Parliament
election
Chalco bid
terminated
GOM wants to
renegotiate OT IA
OT begins
production
GOM says
Phase-2
funding will
need
approval
Cancellation
of SEFIL
Amended
Mineral Law
Domestic factors for the drop in FDI
1. Moratorium banning the issuance of new
exploration licenses -2010
2. 20 parliamentarians’ petition on OT IA -2011
3. Revocation of SouthGobi Resources license
-2012
4. Passing of SEFIL -2012
5. Draft Minerals Law -2012
6. Government’s request to renegotiate OT IA -
2012
7. Delay in OT phase-2 funding-2013-2014
Actions Cause
1. Democratic nature: Arthur Schlesinger’s
cyclical theory
2. Traditional and nomadic lifestyle
3. Past experience under communist regime
Is Mongolia the only country slowing down?
-1.30%
6.40%
17.50%
12.40%
11.70%
-1.00%
5.80%
5.80% 5.40% 4.10%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mongolia Chile
4.60%
6.20% 6.50% 6.30%
5.80%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mongolia Indonesia
1.20%
7.30% 7.50%
5.00% 6.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mongolia Kazakhstan
1.70% 2.00% 2.20%
3.60% 2.70%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mongolia Australia
Source: World Bank
External factors- Weak commodities’ price
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
Copper (USD per metric ton)
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
Gold (USD per troy ounce)
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
Australian thermal coal (USD per metric ton)
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
Iron ore, China Import Price (USD per dry metric ton)
Source: Index Mundi
External factors- Investors’ sentiment
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
TSX.V Copper price Gold Price
Investor sentiment within the commodities
sector is at 5 year low
TSX.V- 114.53
Gold- 152.63
Copper- 218.18
Domestic outlook- Political barometer
45.50%
47.50% 50.30%
38.60%
37.80%
23.30%
15.80%
13.50% 13.70% 15.30%
6.10%
5.50% 5.10% 5.90% 7.10%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Improve slightly Remain same Worsen slightly
What is your outlook on the economy in the next 5 years?
19.6%
29.6%
31.8%
23.3%
22.6%
46.8%
43.3%
43.3%
43.2%
36.8%
25.7%
15.4% 14.7%
20.4%
28.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Improving Stagnating Worsening
How would you rate the current state of the economy?
Improving
Worsening
Stagnating
Remain same
Worsen
Improve
What shareholding structure should be used to develop Strategic Mineral Deposits?
59.60%
55.80%
52.50%
54.00%
55.50%
57.00%
58.50%
60.00%
2013 2014
Mongolia's shareholding over 51%
6.90%
8.70%
0.00%
3.00%
6.00%
9.00%
12.00%
2013 2014
Equal shareholding
0.50%
0.80%
0.00%
0.30%
0.60%
0.90%
2013 2014
Foreign shareholding over 51%
Source: Sant Maral Foundation
Domestic outlook- Political barometer
17.3
27.1
16.9
34.2
16.5
28.9
15.3
35.4
8.9
34
14.6
39.7
9.5
35.4
8.6
43.2
11
40.3
8.4
35.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Government should help the
poor directly
Invest in long term social
development programs such
as Public Education and
Health Care projects
Cash handout for each
citizen
Invest in economic
development projects
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Where should mineral wealth be invested by the Government?
Source: Sant Maral Foundation
External outlook
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
Iron Ore Price (USD$) Forecast to 2025
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
Coal Price (USD$) Forecast to 2025
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
Gold Price (USD$) Forecast to 2025
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
Copper Price (USD$) Forecast to 2025
Source: World Bank
Domestic outlook and expectations
• New Investment Law
• Investment Fund Law
• Securities Market Law
• Mineral Law
• Petroleum Law
• Smart Government initiative
• Mineral policy
• Accessible Mineral Licenses
• Reduction in corruption
• Improvement in infrastructure
POSITIVE LEGAL
ENVIRONMENT
STABILITY
Current investment environment Uncertainties
• Oyu Tolgoi Phase-2 funding
• Tax dispute involving Oyu Tolgoi LLC
• Railway policy
• Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi IPO
Environment is ready
Catalyst event needed!
MIBG’s expectations
• Economic slowdown to continue
• Public more friendly towards FDI but
future volatility is certain
• Government policy to support private
sector
• Mineral discoveries will take place
(Erdene Resource, Xanadu Mines)
Thank you for your attention
• Any questions or comments regarding this document and the specifics of the transaction should be directed to
Bilguun Ankhbayar using the provided contact information below.
• Please visit us at: www.mibg.mn
• Please forward any questions or comments to:
Bilguun Ankhbayar
Chief Executive Office
Office: +976 1136 2620
Email: bilguun@mibg.mn
12
The opinions and/or views expressed in this information package do not necessarily represent the official
position of MIBG (Mongolian Investment Banking Group) LLC. The products, projects, or private entities
discussed in this document are presented for informational purposes only and do not constitute an
offer, solicitation of an offer to purchase, hold, sell, invest or make any other financial decision. In making
decisions, investors may rely on their own examinations of the parties and risks involved.
The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are believed to be accurate
and reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete and subject to change without advance
notice.
Important Disclosures

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09.10.2014, Review and outlook of Mongolian investment environment, Bilguun A.

  • 1. Review and outlook of Mongolia’s investment environment Bilguun Ankhbayar MIBG SC
  • 2. Current state 3.91₮ 4.16₮ 4.89₮ 5.50₮ 6.14₮ 6.57₮ -1.30% 6.40% 17.30% 12.30% 11.60% 7.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 0.00₮ 1.00₮ 2.00₮ 3.00₮ 4.00₮ 5.00₮ 6.00₮ 7.00₮ 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 GDP (2005 base) GDP GrowthTrillion MNT GDP grpwth % 2009-2014 GDP vs Growth ₮1,000 ₮1,100 ₮1,200 ₮1,300 ₮1,400 ₮1,500 ₮1,600 ₮1,700 ₮1,800 ₮1,900 2009-2014 USD vs MNT $0.62 $1.69 $4.71 $4.45 $2.49 $0.75 $1.30 $1.71 $2.78 $3.33 $3.43 $4.00 $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FDI Government budget 2009-2014 FDI vs Gov Spending ₮0.00 ₮0.50 ₮1.00 ₮1.50 ₮2.00 ₮2.50 2009-2014 Monthly unemployment benefit cost Billion MNT
  • 3. The cause for drop in FDI ₮0.00 ₮100.00 ₮200.00 ₮300.00 ₮400.00 ₮500.00 $0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00 Turquoise Hill Resources share price performance (2009-2014) 2009 Explore-124 Drill-67 2010 Explore-173 Drill-108 2011 Explore-302 Drill-190 2012 Explore-324 Drill-206 2013 Explore-142 Drill-79 Parliament reviews OT IA draft OT IA signed 68% windfall profit tax canceled 2010 budget announced at $758 million $1.5 billion was secured from EBRD and IFC 2011 budget approved at $2.1 billion 20 parliament members petition to change the OT IA 34%-50% Rio increases stake to 48.5% MRAM revokes SouthGobi licenses in relation to Chalco bid SEFIL passed Parliament election Chalco bid terminated GOM wants to renegotiate OT IA OT begins production GOM says Phase-2 funding will need approval Cancellation of SEFIL Amended Mineral Law
  • 4. Domestic factors for the drop in FDI 1. Moratorium banning the issuance of new exploration licenses -2010 2. 20 parliamentarians’ petition on OT IA -2011 3. Revocation of SouthGobi Resources license -2012 4. Passing of SEFIL -2012 5. Draft Minerals Law -2012 6. Government’s request to renegotiate OT IA - 2012 7. Delay in OT phase-2 funding-2013-2014 Actions Cause 1. Democratic nature: Arthur Schlesinger’s cyclical theory 2. Traditional and nomadic lifestyle 3. Past experience under communist regime
  • 5. Is Mongolia the only country slowing down? -1.30% 6.40% 17.50% 12.40% 11.70% -1.00% 5.80% 5.80% 5.40% 4.10% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mongolia Chile 4.60% 6.20% 6.50% 6.30% 5.80% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mongolia Indonesia 1.20% 7.30% 7.50% 5.00% 6.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mongolia Kazakhstan 1.70% 2.00% 2.20% 3.60% 2.70% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mongolia Australia Source: World Bank
  • 6. External factors- Weak commodities’ price $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 Copper (USD per metric ton) $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800 $2,000 Gold (USD per troy ounce) $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 Australian thermal coal (USD per metric ton) $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 Iron ore, China Import Price (USD per dry metric ton) Source: Index Mundi
  • 7. External factors- Investors’ sentiment 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 TSX.V Copper price Gold Price Investor sentiment within the commodities sector is at 5 year low TSX.V- 114.53 Gold- 152.63 Copper- 218.18
  • 8. Domestic outlook- Political barometer 45.50% 47.50% 50.30% 38.60% 37.80% 23.30% 15.80% 13.50% 13.70% 15.30% 6.10% 5.50% 5.10% 5.90% 7.10% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Improve slightly Remain same Worsen slightly What is your outlook on the economy in the next 5 years? 19.6% 29.6% 31.8% 23.3% 22.6% 46.8% 43.3% 43.3% 43.2% 36.8% 25.7% 15.4% 14.7% 20.4% 28.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Improving Stagnating Worsening How would you rate the current state of the economy? Improving Worsening Stagnating Remain same Worsen Improve What shareholding structure should be used to develop Strategic Mineral Deposits? 59.60% 55.80% 52.50% 54.00% 55.50% 57.00% 58.50% 60.00% 2013 2014 Mongolia's shareholding over 51% 6.90% 8.70% 0.00% 3.00% 6.00% 9.00% 12.00% 2013 2014 Equal shareholding 0.50% 0.80% 0.00% 0.30% 0.60% 0.90% 2013 2014 Foreign shareholding over 51% Source: Sant Maral Foundation
  • 9. Domestic outlook- Political barometer 17.3 27.1 16.9 34.2 16.5 28.9 15.3 35.4 8.9 34 14.6 39.7 9.5 35.4 8.6 43.2 11 40.3 8.4 35.2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Government should help the poor directly Invest in long term social development programs such as Public Education and Health Care projects Cash handout for each citizen Invest in economic development projects 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Where should mineral wealth be invested by the Government? Source: Sant Maral Foundation
  • 10. External outlook $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 Iron Ore Price (USD$) Forecast to 2025 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 Coal Price (USD$) Forecast to 2025 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 Gold Price (USD$) Forecast to 2025 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 Copper Price (USD$) Forecast to 2025 Source: World Bank
  • 11. Domestic outlook and expectations • New Investment Law • Investment Fund Law • Securities Market Law • Mineral Law • Petroleum Law • Smart Government initiative • Mineral policy • Accessible Mineral Licenses • Reduction in corruption • Improvement in infrastructure POSITIVE LEGAL ENVIRONMENT STABILITY Current investment environment Uncertainties • Oyu Tolgoi Phase-2 funding • Tax dispute involving Oyu Tolgoi LLC • Railway policy • Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi IPO Environment is ready Catalyst event needed! MIBG’s expectations • Economic slowdown to continue • Public more friendly towards FDI but future volatility is certain • Government policy to support private sector • Mineral discoveries will take place (Erdene Resource, Xanadu Mines)
  • 12. Thank you for your attention • Any questions or comments regarding this document and the specifics of the transaction should be directed to Bilguun Ankhbayar using the provided contact information below. • Please visit us at: www.mibg.mn • Please forward any questions or comments to: Bilguun Ankhbayar Chief Executive Office Office: +976 1136 2620 Email: bilguun@mibg.mn 12 The opinions and/or views expressed in this information package do not necessarily represent the official position of MIBG (Mongolian Investment Banking Group) LLC. The products, projects, or private entities discussed in this document are presented for informational purposes only and do not constitute an offer, solicitation of an offer to purchase, hold, sell, invest or make any other financial decision. In making decisions, investors may rely on their own examinations of the parties and risks involved. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are believed to be accurate and reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete and subject to change without advance notice. Important Disclosures