Andrei Greenawalt: How the United States selects its presidents Presented at Temple ICAS Evening Lecture on April 6, 2016

1. How the U.S. Selects Its Presidents

2. Presiden4al Elec4ons
Presiden(al elec(ons are broadly a two-step process:
(1) candidates compete for the nomina4on of their party – this
is o<en called “the primary” (even though it’s actually a combina(on of
primaries and caucuses)
• February to June 2016 elec(ons held in states followed by July 2016
Republican Na(onal Conven(on and Democra(c Na(onal Conven(on
(2) the winners (the nominees) face off in the “general” elec4on
which determines the President
• November 8, 2016 (single elec(on day)
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3. Presiden4al Candidates - from Sept 2015 to today
Republicans
Democrats
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4. The Nomina4on Process – it’s complicated!
• Who/what sets the rules? The process is governed by a mix of the
na(onal party rules of the Democra(c and Republican par(es, and by
state law and state par(es (not federal law or the Cons(tu(on)
• Although the general process the Republicans and Democrats use is
similar, it is not exactly the same.
• The na(onal par(es allot to each state a certain number of delegates
to the party’s Na4onal Conven4on. The number of delegates for
each state is based on popula(on and some other factors.
• The goal for each candidate is to win a MAJORITY of the delegates
aMending his/her party’s Na(onal Conven(on (a plurality is not
enough to become the nominee)
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5. Republican Delegate Alloca4on for 2016
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7. The Delegates to the Na4onal Conven4on
• Most delegates in both par(es are “pledged delegates” who are
determined by state primary/caucus elec(on process
• About 15% of Democra(c delegates are “superdelegates” - party
leaders + elected officials who can support whomever they want.
• The Republicans also have party leader delegates but this year
they are bound to the results of their states. There are a small
number of “unpledged delegates” that a few states send to the
Conven(on.
Democrats
4,765 total delegates
• 4,051 pledged
• 714 superdelegates
need 2,383 to win
Republicans
2,472 total delegates
• ~ 2,270-2,370 pledged
• ~ 100-200 unpledged/unbound
need 1,237 to win 7

8. BEFORE VOTES CAST
Spring/summer 2015
Most candidates declare
___
2015- Feb 2016
Months of campaigning
THE ELECTIONS IN STATES
Early February: IA, NH
Late Feb: SC, NV
March 1: Super Tuesday
March –June: Rest of
states
OFFICIAL
NOMINATION
July
Na4onal
Conven4on
for each
party
Nomina4on Process Timeline
Each state holds its own
primary or caucus with
different rules. These
elec(ons determine how
many pledged delegates
each candidate receives
Republicans: There are 2,472 delegates at
the Republican Conven(on. A candidate
needs a majority (1,237) to become the
nominee.
Democrats: There are 4,765 delegates at
the Democra(c Conven(on. A candidate
needs a majority (2,383) to become the
nominee. 8

9. Why do we have a crazy nomina4on process?
• Accident of history!
• 1787: Par4es did not exist when the U.S. was founded. So the
Cons(tu(on does not address this process
• Late 1790s/early 1800s -- first poli4cal par4es develop and they
need a mechanism to pick a candidate to avoid conflict and the
spli_ng of votes. So, congressional caucuses begin to do so.
• 1830s - party conven4ons become the method for picking
candidates. Local party leaders hold mee(ngs which usually
culminate in state conven(ons that select delegates to a na(onal
conven(on.
– No significant role played by the public. Primaries created in
some states in early 1900s but were largely irrelevant.
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10. • 1968 – significant controversy at the Democra(c conven(on driven by
an(-Vietnam War sen(ment
• Post-1968: Democrats establish a Commission and for the first (me
changes are made which allow the public to play the dominant role in
determining the nominee. The Republicans follow suit.
• 1972-today: Republicans and Democrats frequently make changes to
the rules (e.g., Democrats add superdelegates; rules about when
states can hold primaries; etc) but basic structure remains same.
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11. The Nomina4on Process – How are States Different?
The delegate elec(on process is different in every state. Here are some
important differences:
1. Type of Vo4ng/Elec4on - Caucus vs. Primary:
– Primaries (about ¾ of states) a typical elec(on – polls open all day
– Caucuses (about ¼ of states): Typically in the evening and ci(zens
gather at schools, churches, libraries, etc, where they indicate who
they support and neighbors can try to persuade each other. Can take a
hours depending on format. (In Iowa, Dems express support publically
while Republicans hand-in secret ballots).
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12. 2. How States Award Pledged Delegates
– Democrats: Every state uses a propor4onal alloca(on in which
each candidate receives roughly the number of delegates
propor(onal to the percentage of the vote he/she receives
– Republicans: There is more variety. This includes:
• Propor4onal: some states award delegates propor(onal to the
percentage of votes each candidate receives.
• Winner-Take-All: in some states, the candidate with the most
votes gets all of the delegates for that state
• Hybrid: some states use a combina(on, E.g., if someone gets
more than 50%, it’s winner-take-all and if no one gets more
than 50%, then propor(onal
• (No Pledged Delegates: a few states select only unpledged/
unbound delegates who and can vote for whomever they want
at the Conven(on) 12

13. 3. Some Other Differences
• States vary on whether they award delegates based on the full
statewide vote, the vote in each congressional district, or
some combina4on.
• States also vary on the process for selec4ng the actual people
who serve as delegates and the extent to which they must
support their designated candidate at the Conven(on.
• States also have different rules about whether independent
voters can par4cipate in primaries and caucuses.
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14. Florida
Example
Republicans: 99 pledged delegates – awarded
on statewide, winner-take-all basis
• Trump won 45.7% of vote (more than
anyone else) and received all 99 delegates
Democrats: 214 pledged delegates (FL also
has 32 superdelegates)
- 140 awarded propor(onally based on cong
district results (you need at least 15%)
- 74 awarded propor(onally based on
statewide vote (you need at least 15%)
• Clinton: 64% of vote = 141 delegates
• Sanders: 33% of vote = 73 delegates
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15. Current State of the Race
According to the AP (as of 12:23am EST
on April 6): hMps://interac(ves.ap.org/
2016/delegate-tracker/ 15

16. Republicans
16 hMps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presiden(al_primaries,_2016

17. Can Sanders catch Clinton?
• Probably not. He trails in the pledged delegate
count by about 225-250 delegates (the margin
is even greater if you include superdelegates).
• Because all Democra(c contests are
propor(onal, it will be difficult for him to catch
up. He would need to win by significant
margins in many of the remaining states.
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18. Will Trump be the Republican Nominee?
Can he get to 1,237 delegates? He needs to win about 65-70% of the
remaining available pledged delegates (or about 55% of all delegates) to
secure the nomina(on.
Some key upcoming states:
• Wisconsin (April 5) – 42 delegates – 18 to the statewide winner and 3 to
the winner of each of the state’s 8 congressional districts
– So far, Cruz has won 33 delegates, and Trump has won 3 (results are s(ll
coming in for two districts which will determine the remaining 6 delegates)
• New York (April 19): 95 delegates – 14 to statewide winner if over 50%
and 3 to winner of each of 27 congressional districts if over 50%
• Indiana (May 3): 57 delegates – 30 to statewide winner and 3 to winner of
each of the 9 congressional districts
• California (June 7): 172 delegates – 13 to statewide winner and 3 to
winner of each of the 53 congressional districts
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19. What happens if Trump has less than 1,237 delegates aner the last state
elec4ons are held on June 7? Two main possibili(es:
1. Trump secures enough vote commitments from unpledged delegates to
put him over 1,237.
or
2. There is a a “contested” or “open” Republican Conven(on (i.e., no one
receives 1,237 on the first ballot)
How would a contested Conven4on work? State rules vary, but most delegates
are only bound to their designated candidate on the first (or second) ballot at
the Conven(on. A<er that, they can vote for whomever they want.
• In many states, the process to select the actual people who serve as
delegates comes in the weeks and months a<er the elec(on through a
series of party mee(ngs in the states. Campaigns are now vying over who
those actual delegates will be (news reports suggest Cruz has been beMer
than Trump at securing loyalists as delegates).
Also, the conven4on rules could change: one of the first orders of business at
the Conven(on will be to vote on the rules for the Conven(on. The Conven(on
could vote to change the rules in a way that harms Trump (or Trump and Cruz).
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20. The General Elec4on – the Electoral College
• 1787 Cons4tu4onal Conven4on – debate between having Congress
choose the president vs. popular elec(on. Electoral college
emerges as a late compromise.
• How does it work today?
– Each state is assigned a certain number of “electors” = number
of Senators + number of House Representa(ves from the state
• Least populous states get 3 electors
• California (the biggest state) gets 55 electors
– With two excep(ons, the candidate who gets the most votes in
a state wins all of that state’s electors -- winner-take-all. (NE +
ME have a slight varia(on on this)
– To become president, a candidate must win a majority of the
electors (a plurality is not enough)
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21. Presiden4al Elec4ons – 2012 General Elec4on
Electoral College
Obama: 332
Romney: 206
538 Electoral Votes
270 needed to win
Popular Vote Votes % Won
Obama 62,611,250 50.6%
Romney 59,134,475 47.8%
Others 1,968,682 1.6% 21

22. Presiden4al Elec4ons – the Electoral College
• Can you win popular vote but lose electoral college?
– Yes! Al Gore in 2000 (and three other times in the 1800s)
• Can you win more electoral college votes that your opponents but
lose the presidency?
– Yes! You need a majority to win. So a third-party or independent
candidate who wins at least one state could deny the other
candidates a majority.
– What happens then? The House of Representatives decides between
the top 3 candidates with each state getting one vote.
• Can you have a tie?
– Yes! 269-269. The House of Representatives then decides between
the top 3 candidates with each state getting one vote.
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23. Presiden4al Elec4ons – 2016 Preview Map
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