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Public Lecture Presentation Slides (11.12.2012)


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Bill Brooks: The US and Asia after the Presidential Elections & Leadership Changes in Asia

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Public Lecture Presentation Slides (11.12.2012)

  1. 1. From Election Campaign to the Post-Election Prospects
  2. 2. How the Democratic and GOP presidential candidates treatedAsia and Asia policy in the 2012 election campaign
  3. 3. First, Let us examine how Chinawas treated in the 2012 campaign:
  4. 4. 2012: Political ire toward China
  5. 5.  In the 2012 election, both parties cranked up their rhetoric against the world’s second-largest economy China-bashing easy and cheap for US candidates China-bashing used to attract American voters There is a lot of talk about the polarization of political parties in the U.S. these days. But party candidates from the left or the right, liberal or conservative, seem to unite on one issue – bashing China The China-bashing syndrome: Demonizing China
  6. 6. For both US political parties, the target was the same: China
  7. 7. The arguments sound familiar: China stealing US jobs
  8. 8. Some companies accused oftreachery, another familiar theme
  9. 9. Political War on ChinaThe Romney and Obama campaigns ran TV commercials about who is softer on China, and who is more to blame for sending American jobs there.The Romney ad: “Under Obama we’ve lost over half a million manufacturing jobs, and for the first time China is beating us. Seven times Obama could have stopped China’s cheating. Seven times he refused.” Then it cuts to Mr. Romney, who declares, “It’s time to stand up to the cheaters and make sure we protect jobs for the American people.”The announcer concludes, “Barack Obama failing to stop cheating, failing American workers.”Obama ad opens on an incredulous note. “Mitt Romney tough on China?” an announcer asks. “Romney’s companies were called pioneers in shipping U.S. manufacturing jobs overseas. He invested in firms that specialized in relocating jobs to low-wage countries like China. Even today part of Romney’s fortune is invested in China. Romney never stood up to China. All he’s done is send them our jobs.”
  10. 10.
  11. 11. Clever Propaganda, Bad Facts If you know anything about the Chinese economy, the actual analytical content in the commercial is hilariously wrong. The ad has the Chinese official saying that America collapsed because, in the midst of a recession, it relied on (a) government stimulus spending, (b) big changes in its health care systems, and (c) public intervention in major industries -- all of which of course have been critical parts of Chinas (successful) anti-recession policy.
  12. 12. The King-Kong-like investment threat from China
  13. 13. The Economist spotted the trend
  14. 14. Campaign Memories
  15. 15. JAPAN’S 100 YEARS OF DECLINE Some tough words about Japan from Mitt Romney at his New York City fundraiser on 8/9/12, per pool reporter Zeke Miller: "I know when things are tough as they have been for the last three-and-a-half, four years people begin to think it’s always … [inaudible] … We are not Japan. We are not going to be a nation that suffers in decline and distress for a decade or a century. We’re on the cusp of a very different economic future than the one people have seen over the past three years." UPDATE: The line about declining for "a century" was a surprise; others, including President Obama in 2009. have spoken about the "long decade of decline" that Japan suffered from. Romney’s statement was off the mark.
  16. 16. Reactions to Romney’s Remark Japan experts on both sides of the Pacific responded that Romney’s assertion that Japan has been in decline for “a century” shows ignorance of a nation that emerged from the ashes of World War II to build the world’s second- (now third-) largest economy on a small island with few natural resources. Moreover, they worry that Romney is needlessly insulting the face-conscious Japanese and giving them the impression that is he wins in November, his administration won’t appreciate the importance of America’s top alliance in the East at a time when the United States is attempting a diplomatic and military “pivot” to Asia.
  17. 17. Silent on American allies Romney in his campaign seemed overly concerned about protecting allied and friendly governments against the least offense As a result, he rarely said much about U.S. allies one way or the other. If one reviews his campaign website, one finds that Japan is one of the very few treaty allies that received any mention Even then, references to Japan and South Korea in that part were perfunctory and told us almost nothing
  18. 18. Hardly any mention of Japan, let along Asia, in the longcampaign.Yet, once upon a time, Japan would have been fair game inthe election campaigns on both U.S. political parties.
  19. 19. In the 1980s and early 1980s,Washington was awash in waves of“Japan Bashing” that in some ways resemble the “China Bashing” of the 2012 Presidential Campaign
  20. 20. 1980s: Japan Bashing (Nihon-tataki) 1990s on: Japan Passing 2001-06: Japan Rising (under PM Koizumi) 2007-09: Japan Nothing 2009-: Japan Falling (apart)Perceptions and Slogans
  21. 21. After SONY purchased Columbia (Newsweek)
  22. 22. “Revisionist” Views of JapanAssumptions:-- Japan’s economy inherently closed, protected by non- tariff barriers-- Japanese capitalism is unique to it, with international rules, signals not applicable-- Japan’s economic system is adversarial and a threat, designed to gain industrial dominance by undermining competitors (predatory practices)--Japan was an “outlier nation” that must be contained
  23. 23. Revisionist Views of JapanRevisionist policy prescriptions:-- US must recognize Japan as different, closed, and a threat-- US must meet the challenge by industrial policy emulating Japan’s-- US needs to pursue numerical market share targets in order to gain access to the Japanese market: Make Japan guarantee US a share of the market-- Clinton administration tried in trade negotiations to force Japan to accept numerical import targets
  24. 24. Rising Sun depictsAmerican paranoiaMichael Crichton wrote RISING SUN in1992, when Japan was considered a bigeconomic threat to the United States.Since then, Japans economy has falleninto a long-term recession, and it has soldback many of the American properties itpurchased over a decade ago. Japan is stilla serious economic force, but its nolonger the economic bogeyman it used tobe.Theres a decent murder mystery inRISING SUN, but this novel is essentiallyan excuse for Crichton to express his fearof Japanese business practices. Much ofthe dialogue in this novel is stilted, and ismerely a front for Crichton to express hisview that the American way of doingbusiness is outdated, and cannot competeeffectively against Japanese methods.Many of the characters are nothing morethan caricatures designed to push thismessage.The novel was made into a movie starringSean Connery.
  25. 25. Detroit Workers Smash Japanese Car
  26. 26. What “anti-Japanese” incidentoccurred in Detroit in June 1982?
  27. 27. Japan-bashing=Asian-bashingVincent Jen Chin was a Chinese-American beaten to death in June 1982, in Detroit Michigan.The perpetrators were Chrysler plant superintendent Ronald Ebens and his stepson, Michael Nitz. The murder generated public outrage over the lenient sentencing the two men originally received in a plea bargain, as the attack, which included blows to the head from a baseball bat, possessed many attributes consistent with hate crimes. Chin was killed because his attackers believed he was Japanese.Ebens never served a day in jail for killing Chin. Many of the layoffs in Detroits auto industry, including Nitzs in 1979, had been due to the increasing market share of Japanese automakers, leading to allegations that Chinese American Vincent Chin received racially charged comments before his death.[ The case became a rallying point for the Asian-American community, and Ebens and Nitz were put on trial for violating Chins civil rights. Because the subsequent Federal prosecution was a result of public pressure from a coalition of many Asian ethnic organizations, Vincent Chins murder is often considered the beginning of a pan-ethnic Asian American movement
  28. 28. A similar incident occurred but this time in another country …..
  29. 29. In China, similar Japan-bashing incident in 2012
  30. 30. Man beaten for driving Japanese car in Xi’an China 2012In September, Li Jianli was beaten almost to death by a mob and a month later lay partially paralyzed on a hospital bed with his skull smashed in and his speaking ability reduced to a few simple phrases.Mr. Li’s only offense, apparently, was driving a Japanese car. A mob stopped his car on a wide boulevard in the middle of Xi’an and beat him to a pulp.
  31. 31. Ushering in a long period of economic decline for Japan: The “Lost Decade” that ultimately stretched out to two decades of sluggish growth
  32. 32. As a result, Japan in the 1990s was seen asirrelevant. The slogan “Japan Passing” was picked up by the media According to the Economist, the phrase “Japan Passing” has two meanings: (1) that world’s then second largest economy was being passed by in a fast- changing world, and (2) that Japan could no longer even be taken seriously. It may have originated when then president Clinton made a nine-day visit to China in 1998 but did not stop off in Japan.
  33. 33. By the 2000s, Japan Nothing is the theme
  34. 34. Expectations of Japan and China in the year ahead
  35. 35. What kind of Asia policy would a President Romney pursue?What would be expected of Japan in the Alliance? How would a Romney administration deal with China?
  36. 36. Political instability, economic uncertainty, and a plethora ofdiplomatic, security, trade, economic and energy issues.
  37. 37. Came into office with a promise of strong leadership,decisiveness, and cohesiveness in policy process, but facingmajor policy challenges that ultimately he may not overcome
  38. 38. Noda’s Relationship with Obamahas been much better than hispredecessors’
  39. 39. Accomplishments and Challenges Noda has continued to strengthen the alliance Joint training between the SDF and USFJ for remote- island contingencies But Okinawa basing issues remain unresolved and some might argue getting worse:  Futenma relocation is on hold  Osprey deployment to Futenma opposed by Okinawa  Another serious crime by U.S. servicemen, followed by a crime by another servicemen after curfew  Okinawa governor in between a rock and a hard place
  40. 40. Okinawa Governor Nakaima
  41. 41. Noda’s Security Policy Agenda PKO to Sudan Beefed up anti-piracy operation in waters off Somalia Accepted U.S. offer to engage the SDF in full-scaled training with U.S. forces in Guam and Tinian, positing the defense of Japan’s remote islands Emerging strategic view (with Defense Chief Satoshi Morimoto) toward China Morimoto has requested US for updated Defense Cooperation Guidelines (reflecting current security environment)
  42. 42. Noda’s Security Agenda (continued) Noda in Dec. 2011 cleared the way for easing restrictions on arms export to make it possible for Japan to participate in development and production of military equipment with other countries The decision especially affects development of the F- 35, Japan’s next-generation fighter Japan’s defense industry gets a boost, too
  43. 43. New Set of Defense Cooperation Guidelines If the DPJ stays in power, expect to see the U.S. and Japan revise the current set of bilateral defense cooperation guidelines that provide for joint steps during a contingency The last revision in 1997 was based on a Korean Peninsula contingency The next one will update the focus based on security changes involving China and the E. and S. China seas
  44. 44. Ballistic Missile Defense During Secretary Panettas visit to Japan, it was announced that the US and Japan have agreed to set up a second missile defense system on Japanese soil in an effort to counter the ballistic missile threat from North Korea China does not agree it is solely intended for the North Korean threat
  45. 45. Noda Administration in Crisis
  46. 46. Can Noda Survive?
  47. 47. Noda May Call Snap Election With his third cabinet shuffle in a year, and pressured to dissolve the Diet in November for an early Lower House election once two critical bills are passed, Noda seems unable to avoid making good on his promise to the opposition LDP-Komeito But his party will run with only a fraction of its original strength (next slide), and it is likely that the DPJ will lose. TPP may be entangled in the election campaign, further splitting his party.
  48. 48. Party Strength in Lower House
  49. 49. DPJ vs. LDP in the Polls
  50. 50. Future of the DPJ seems bleak Likelihood of the DPJ returning to the opposition camp Possibility of the LDP not winning a majority of seats in the Lower House This would require parties to scramble to form a ruling coalition This could return the LDP to power as a member of a coalition that could include several small or splinter parties
  51. 51. The Territorial Issues Noda’s biggest challenge has been the territorial rows with China and South Korea. First, the ROK: The feud over the Takeshima-Dokdo isles with the ROK stemmed from a political stunt by outgoing President Lee Myung-bak The issue is likely to be quietly back-burnered after the ROK elections, as cooler heads prevail But deep wounds have been inflicted in the bilateral relationship that will take time to heal Security ties (including GSOMIA and ACSA) hurt
  52. 52. China Extends Boundary
  53. 53. China’s Shore-Sea Air Battle Concept
  54. 54. Senkaku Islands (Dyaoyu-dao)
  55. 55. The GOJ purchase of the Senkakus set off a huge wave of violence against Japan all over China
  56. 56. Asahi Poll of Japan-China Relationsin 2012
  57. 57. Translation of Asahi Poll Japan: Current state of Japan-China relations? Going well: 5%; Not going well: 90% Previous poll in 2010: Going well: 45%; Not going well: 45% China: Current state of China-Japan relations? Going well: 14%; Not going well: 83% Previous poll in 2010: Going well: 22%; Not going well 50% Current poll: Top three issues in order Japan: Territorial, History, Econ. friction China: History, Territorial, Military buildup
  58. 58. Rioters smash cars, burn buildings
  59. 59. Demonstrators at Japanese Dept.Store
  61. 61. The irony is this isat an Audidealership!Employees at a dealershiphold up a sign that says WEWILL KILL EVERY JAPANESEPERSON EVEN IF IT MEANSDEATHS FOR OUR OWN;EVEN POVERTY WILL NOTDETER US FROMRECLAIMING THE DIAOYUISLANDS
  62. 62. Japanese brand cars are overturned by riotersThis happened all over China
  63. 63. Riots like these occurred in over 100 citiesThe sign in the foreground reads DEFEND DIAOYU ISLANDS TILL OURDEATHS and FUCK JAPAN
  64. 64. There was no end to the insulting imagesThe pig has a Japanese flag symbol on its head
  65. 65. New Leaders in China: Change in Posture toward Japan?