The document analyzes the evolving maritime order in the East and South China Seas, emphasizing the tensions between Japan and China, particularly regarding the Diaoyu and Senkaku Islands. Both countries have recognized their differing views on these tensions but have committed to preventing further escalation through dialogue and establishing crisis management mechanisms. The document suggests that meaningful interaction and careful management of US-China relations will be crucial in shaping the future regional power balance.

1. The War that Never Was?
Japan, China, and the Struggle for the Maritime
Order in the East and South China Seas
The War that Never Was?
Japan, China, and the Struggle for the Maritime
Order in the East and South China Seas
Dr Alessio Patalano – Department of War Studies – alessio.patalano@kcl.ac.uk

2. Dr Alessio Patalano – Department of War Studies – alessio.patalano@kcl.ac.uk

3. 09/201009/2010
Dr Alessio Patalano – Department of War Studies – alessio.patalano@kcl.ac.uk
04/201204/2012
07/201207/2012
09/201209/2012
12/201212/2012
12/201312/2013
11/201411/2014
‘Both Japan and China, which have responsibilities towards the peace and stability of the
region and the international community, will return to the starting point of a “mutually
beneficial relationship based on common strategic interests” and further develop their
cooperative relations. I believe that we succeeded in sending out that strong message to
the world’.
PM Shinzo ABE, 11 Nov. 2014
‘Both Japan and China, which have responsibilities towards the peace and stability of the
region and the international community, will return to the starting point of a “mutually
beneficial relationship based on common strategic interests” and further develop their
cooperative relations. I believe that we succeeded in sending out that strong message to
the world’.
PM Shinzo ABE, 11 Nov. 2014

4. Dr Alessio Patalano – Department of War Studies – alessio.patalano@kcl.ac.uk

5. Dr Alessio Patalano – Department of War Studies – alessio.patalano@kcl.ac.uk
Third, the two sides have acknowledged that different positions exist between them regarding
the tensions which have emerged in recent years over the Diaoyu Islands and some waters in
the East China Sea, and agreed to prevent the situation from aggravating through dialogue
and consultation and establish crisis management mechanisms to avoid contingencies.
Fourth, the two sides have agreed to gradually resume political, diplomatic and security
dialogue through various multilateral and bilateral channels and to make efforts to build
political mutual trust.
The ‘Y-Y’ Consensus?The ‘Y-Y’ Consensus?
Both sides recognized that they had different views as to the emergence of tense situations in
recent years in the waters of the East China Sea, including those around the Senkaku Islands,
and shared the view that, through dialogue and consultation, they would prevent the
deterioration of the situation, establish a crisis management mechanism and avert the rise of
unforeseen circumstances.
Both sides shared the view that, by utilizing various multilateral and bilateral channels, they
would gradually resume dialogue in political, diplomatic and security fields and make an
effort to build a political relationship of mutual trust.

6. Dr Alessio Patalano – Department of War Studies – alessio.patalano@kcl.ac.uk

7. Dr Alessio Patalano – Department of War Studies – alessio.patalano@kcl.ac.uk
AccessAccess

8. Dr Alessio Patalano – Department of War Studies – alessio.patalano@kcl.ac.uk
ControlControl

9. Dr Alessio Patalano – Department of War Studies – alessio.patalano@kcl.ac.uk
ProjectionProjection

10. How is it
Evolving?
How is it
Evolving?
Dr Alessio Patalano – Department of War Studies – alessio.patalano@kcl.ac.uk

11. Dr Alessio Patalano – Department of War Studies – alessio.patalano@kcl.ac.uk

12. Dr Alessio Patalano – Department of War Studies – alessio.patalano@kcl.ac.uk

13. Dr Alessio Patalano – Department of War Studies – alessio.patalano@kcl.ac.uk
Quingdao
Ningbo
Zhanjiang Sanya

14. Dr Alessio Patalano – Department of War Studies – alessio.patalano@kcl.ac.uk
Quingdao
Ningbo
Zhanjiang Sanya

15. Dr Alessio Patalano – Department of War Studies – alessio.patalano@kcl.ac.uk

16. Dr Alessio Patalano – Department of War Studies – alessio.patalano@kcl.ac.uk

17. Dr Alessio Patalano – Department of War Studies – alessio.patalano@kcl.ac.uk
… do you mind?

18. Dr Alessio Patalano – Department of War Studies – alessio.patalano@kcl.ac.uk
Regional Power Balance
International Order
China-Japan
US-China
Domestic Law-UNCLOS
International Access – National Control

19. Dr Alessio Patalano – Department of War Studies – alessio.patalano@kcl.ac.uk
A. War? – Not yet…
B. What’s needed? – Meaningful
Interaction...
C. What’s going to affect it? – US-
China Relations / SCS Power Balance
/ Chinese Political Reforms