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Public lecture slide presentation (1.9.2014) Michael Cucek: Abe Shinzo one year on: what have we learned?
The document evaluates the political landscape in Japan one year after Shinzo Abe's election as LDP president, highlighting initial high support ratings and potential challenges such as market sentiment reversal and internal party dissension. It compares past political scenarios and discusses lessons learned from Abe's administration regarding governance and public perception. The analysis suggests that while Abe's era offers stability, it is also fraught with risks that could undermine his leadership.
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Public lecture slide presentation (1.9.2014) Michael Cucek: Abe Shinzo one year on: what have we learned?
- 1. Abe Shinzo OneYear On: What Have We Learned? Michael Cucek Research Associate, MIT Center of International Studies Adjunct Fellow, TUJ - ICAS
- 2. “Abe and theLDP: A New Era of Stability?” ( 28 February 2013 )
- 3. 90 % NHK Cabinet SupportRatings Obuchi 80 Mori 70 66 64 66 64 65 Koizumi 62 59 60 57 57 60 58 Abe 1 50 50 Fukuda 40 Aso 30 Hatoyama Kan 20 Noda 10 Abe 2 Number of months post-inaguration 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
- 4. NHK Party SupportRatings 50 % LDP 45 DPJ 40 35 JRP 30 New Komeito 25 Your Party 20 Life 15 Communist 10 Socialist 5 Don't know/Cannot say 2012 2013 12月 11月 10月 9月 8月 7月 6月 5月 4月 3月 2月 1月 12月 0
- 5. “A New Eraof Stability?” – What Could Go Wrong ( 28 February 2013 ) • Reversal of Market Sentiment • Scandals • International Incident • Internal Dissension • Policy Overreach
- 6. Abe Shinzo elected presidentof the LDP Nikkei 225 Index Images courtesy: Prime Minister’s Residence homepage
- 7. Yen vs. Dollarvs. Euro vs. Dollar Abe Shinzo elected president of the LDP Image courtesy: Tsuchiya Atsushi
- 8. Foot In MouthDisease May 2013 JRP Co-leader Hashimoto Toru says “comfort women” were necessary for calming hopped up soldiers and suggests that U.S. personnel on Okinawa become regular patrons of Okinawan sexuals services establishments July 2013 Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Aso Taro muses to a revisionist audience about a supposed quiet demise of the liberal Weimar Constitution and wonders “Is there not something we could learn from the experience”? Image courtesy: Tokyo Shimbun
- 9. The Immaculate Deflection TokudaTakeshi LDP, Kagoshima District #２ Inose Naoki Governor, Tokyo Metropolitan District Image courtesy: The Asahi Shimbun Image courtesy: Sankei Biz
- 10. International Incident 23 November23, 2013 China ADIZ announcement Image courtesy: The Asahi Shimbun 1 January 2014 Chinese balloonist attempts landing on Senkakus, ditches. JCG, China Coast Guard and Taiwanese authorities cooperate to save and repatriate him Image courtesy: The New York Times
- 11. “A New Eraof Stability?” – What Could Go Wrong ( 28 February 2013 ) • Reversal of Market Sentiment • Scandals • International Incident • Internal Dissension • Policy Overreach
- 12. “A New Eraof Stability?” – What Could Go Right ( 28 February 2013 ) • A Moribund DPJ • A By-passed JRP • Proper policy mix • The Third Way
- 13. “What Have WeLearned?” • Ability to Work A Calendar • Theatricality • Ability To Reverse • Patience • Performance • Brutality
- 14. “What Have WeLearned?” • Ability to Work A Calendar • Theatricality • Ability To Reverse • Patience • Performance • Brutality
- 15. “What Have WeLearned?” • Ability to Work A Calendar • Theatricality • Ability To Reverse • Patience • Performance • Brutality
- 16. “What Have WeLearned?” • Ability to Work A Calendar • Theatricality • Ability To Reverse • Patience • Performance • Brutality
- 17. Oops, I DidIt Again April 23, 2013 Abe stumbles through Maruyama Katsuya’s questions regarding implications of “escape from the postwar regime” and the “misaken policies” clause in the Maruyama Statement Screen capture courtesy: House of Councillors Television
- 18. Oops, I DidIt Again…Again Heisei Emperor and Empress First Official Sovereignty Day Ceremony April 28, 2013
- 19. Oops, I DidIt Again…Again…Again Prime Minister Abe Shinzo wearing jersey # 96 Ceremony Bestowing People’s Honor Awards on Nagashima Shigeo and Matsui Hideki 6 May 2013
- 20. “What Have WeLearned?” • Ability to Work A Calendar • Theatricality • Ability To Reverse • Patience • Performance • Brutality
- 21. “What Have WeLearned?” • Ability to Work A Calendar • Theatricality • Ability To Reverse • Patience • Performance • Brutality
- 22. “What Have WeLearned?” • Ability to Work A Calendar • Theatricality • Ability To Reverse • Patience • Performance • Brutality
- 23. The Tyranny OfThe Numbers
- 24. House of Representatives– The Parties Socialist 2 Independents 14 Your Party 9 People's Life 7 JRP 53 Communist 8 Yui 7 DPJ 56 LDP 293 Number of seats needed for supermajority = 320 New Komeito 31
- 25. House of Councillors– The Parties New Renaissance 3 Socialist 3 Independents 4 JRP 9 Your Party 12 People's Life 2 Communist 11 Yui 6 DPJ 58 LDP 114 Number of seats needed for majority = 122 New Komeito 20
- 26. House of Councillors– The Ruling Coalition New Renaissance 3 Socialist 3 Independents 4 JRP 9 Your Party 12 The Ruling LDP-NK “Hawks and Doves” Coalition People's Life 2 Communist 11 Yui 6 DPJ 58 LDP 114 134 seats Number of seats needed for majority = 122 New Komeito 20
- 27. House of Councillors– The New Ruling Coalition? New Renaissance 3 Socialist 3 Independents 4 JRP 9 Your Party 12 The New Ruling LDP-JRP-Your Party “Hawks, Hawks, Hawks” Coalition? People's Life 2 Communist 11 Yui 6 DPJ 58 LDP 114 135 seats Number of seats needed for majority = 122 New Komeito 20
- 28. House of Representatives– The Ruling Coalition Socialist 2 Independents 14 Your Party 9 People's Life 7 Current Ruling LDP-NK “Hawks and Doves” Coalition JRP 53 Communist 8 Yui 7 DPJ 56 324 seats LDP 293 Number of seats needed for supermajority = 320 New Komeito 31
- 29. House of Representatives– The New Ruling Coalition? Socialist 2 Independents 14 Your Party 9 People's Life 7 Future Ruling LDP-JRP-Your Party “Hawks, Hawks, Hawks” Coalition? JRP 53 Communist 8 Yui 7 DPJ 56 357 seats LDP 293 Number of seats needed for supermajority = 320 New Komeito 31
- 30. What Have WeLearned?
- 31.
- 32. Thanks. Special thanks toRobert Dujarric and the Institute of Contemporary Asia Studies, Temple University Japan. Michael Thomas Cucek http://shisaku.blogspot.jp/ shisakublog@gmail.com