Data-driven Perspectives on Community Recovery in Tohoku - Daniel P. Aldrich, Ph.D., Professor, Purdue University, Political Science

1. During Disaster,
(Tsunami) Size and
Age Matter, but So
Do Networks
Daniel P. Aldrich
Purdue University and Tokyo University
Daniel.aldrich@gmail.com and Twitter @DanielPAldrich

3. Overall Project Framework
Level of Analysis Cases Data Stress on
International Japan, Haiti, India,
China
Recent earthquake
disasters
Political capacity
and state-civil
society relations
National Aomori, Iwate,
Miyagi,
Fukushima, Chiba
Prefectural
damage, population
shift, business
condition
Financial capacity,
social capital,
damage
City / village/ town 280 coastal villages Quant (200+
variables with
outcome of
mortality and
survival)
Damage, social
capital, politics,
demographics
Individual Survivors from six
Tohoku villages
Qualitative Narrative of
survival and
recovery

4. Theories of Mortality

5. Variable
Number of
Observations Mean
Standard
Deviation Min Max
Disaster characteristics
Tsunami height 283 4.08 9.15 0.00 55.60
Demographic factors
Percentage of pop over 65 283 0.27 0.06 0.12 0.55
Population density 283 680.00 1417.20 1.62 9530.00
Social capital factors
Crime rate per capita 283 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.03
Blood donations per capita 283 6.97 11.16 0.04 123.50
Recycling compliance rate 269 18.05 7.18 5.80 58.20
Political factors
LDP party support in 2009 LH election
283 0.29 0.45 0.00 1.00
Voter turnout 277 70.69 5.86 60.00 91.00
Merged locality 283 0.09 0.28 0.00 1.00
Environmental factors
Sea wall height 212 1.33 3.20 0.00 15.50

6. Strong variation in mortality
050100150
Density
0 .02 .04 .06 .08 .1
Proportion of population missing or deceased

7. Some correlation with wave height
HinoemataShowa
Katsurao
NishimeyaShichikashukuMishimaSaiKaneyamaKazamauraKawauchiShingo FudaiKitashiobaraImabetsuYomogitaYugawaBandai
Tanohata
SamegawaYanaizu
Noda
YokohamaTadamiNakajimaOhira HironoFurudonoTakkoSumitaIitateTeneiOmaYamatsuriKozakiShimogoKunoheNishiwagaIzumizakiAsakawaHirata
Futaba
SotogahamaTamakawaHigashidoriKuzumakiMutsuzawaNishiaizuShikama
Naraha
OnjukuShibayamaNagaraInakadate
Shinchi
HiraizumiOtamaOsatoKyonanFujisawaChonanGokaFukauraHanawaKawasaki
Onagawa
KunimiKawachiKarumaiRokunoheOtaki IwaizumiOwaniRokkashoOnoSannoheAjigasawa
Okuma
Murata IchinomiyaShirakoHiranaiNakadomariKagamiishiKoriZaoIchinoheTsurutaNoheji HashikamiChoseiIwate shiTanaguraMatsushimaTonoshoItayanagi
Otsuchi
MarumoriKawamataInawashiro
Tomioka
TakoFujisakiKanegasaki
Yamamoto
ShichinoheMihoAizubange
Minamisanriku
ToneWakuyaIshikawaMinamiaizu HironoKujukuriShizukuishiMiharu OaraiYabuki
Yamada
GonoheTohokuNishigoNanbuDaigo
Shichigahama
Katsuura
Namie
ShisuiShirosatoSakaeAizumisatoYachiyo
Rikuzentakata
Ogawara OiraseYokoshibahikariTaiwaMisatoKamiSakaiYahabaHachimantaiTonoNinoheItako TakahagiKakudaMotomiyaShiwaHirakawa RifuIbaraki
Watari
KamogawaKuroishi KujiTsugaruShiroishi TokaiNamegata
Soma
Shibata
Kamaishi
SosaTamura
Ofunato
Isumi MisawaMinamiboso
Higashimatsushima
Kasumigaura
Iwanuma
TsukubamiraiShimotsumaHitachiomiyaSakuragawaInashiki KitaibarakiTomiyaAmiFuttsuTateyamaOamishirasatoHokotaTomisatoOmitamaKitakataYukiTakizawaNaka SanmuBandoHitachiotaShiogamaGoshogawara
Miyako
NihonmatsuShiroiSodegauraMutsuToganeMoriya
Tagajo
ShirakawaJosoDate KashimaTowada AsahiChoshi
Minamisoma
Natori
Yachimata
Kesennuma
KuriharaSukagawaKasamaIshiokaRyugasakiUshikuKatoriTomeYotsukaidoInzaiKimitsuMobaraKitakami KamisuHanamakiKamagayaChikuseiTorideIchinosekiMidoriOshuAizuwakamatsuNaritaKisarazu WakabayashiAbikoOsakiKogaTsuchiuraMihamaWakabaNoda HitachinakaInage
Ishinomaki
NagareyamaNarashinoUrayasuSakuraHanamigawaHirosakiYachiyo MiyaginoHitachiChuoIzumiTsukubaTaihaku HachinoheMitoIchiharaAobaFukushima shiMoriokaAomori shiKoriyama IwakiKashiwaIchikawaMatsudoFunabashi Chiba shiSendai Ibaraki
0.02.04.06.08.1
PercentageMissing/Dead
0 20 40 60
Maximum tsunami height

8. Predicted mortality ceteris paribus
0.01.02.03.04
Mortality
0 10 20 30 40 50
Tsunami Height

9. Age matters
-.01-.0050.005.01.015
Mortality
0 20 40 60
Proportion of Population 65 and over

10. Proxy for social capital matters
-.0020.002.004.006
Mortality
0 5 10 15
Pre-Tsunami Proportional Crime Rate

11. Why might social capital matter?

12. Conclusions
Standard theories on mortality supported
(weight height, age)
No evidence that political factors played a
role
Social networks evidently important for
survival
Look next to combine qualitative and
quantitative data to fill in gaps