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Providing accurate and trusted information
on antibiotic use and resistance in an
increasingly chaotic information environment 
Peter Davies BVSc, PhD
College of Veterinary Medicine
University of Minnesota
Rational public discourse – a quaint idea
 Politicization of food animal production
 Internet pandemic misinformation
 Misinformation more dangerous than ignorance
 Conviction with which ideas are held
 Is not correlated with whether they are true
 Is correlated with indignation when challenged
 Signal to noise ratio!
Death by a thousand sound bites
 Accusations are simple – realities are complex
 Sound bite culture with acute time deficiency
 Few follow complex arguments
 Even fewer understand them
 Detailed technical explanations do not get listened to
 Bombardment of negative sound bites will continue
 A complex defense is no defense, no matter how
misinformed the accusations
Noise polluters?
4
Knowledgeofthe‘facts’
Loyalty to the ‘facts’
Activists
Professionals
Journalists
Scientists
Livestock associated MRSA
 First identified in Holland in 2004 (ST398)
 Found in pigs and other food animals globally
 Prevalence varies (~100% of pigs in DK, NL)
 Other variants (ST9 in Asia; ST5 in North America, ..)
 Human cases of infection documented
 Relatively uncommon vs. human MRSA variants
 Mostly non-invasive SSTI
 ~10 fatal cases globally (medically compromised)
 Serious infections rare in healthy swine workers
5
LA- MRSA
A threat to the neighborhood?
 Consideration in permitting applications
 Science divided?
 Some studies suggest risk
 Feingold (2011), Schinasi (2014), Carrell (2014), Casey (2014),
Beresin (2017)
 Flaws/limitations

Case/control or ecological

Fail to account for individual distance to farms, livestock contact, or
MRSA type
 More robust studies indicate negligible risk
 Van Cleef (2009), Cuny 2009, Bisdorff (2011), Anker (2018)
6
7
Schinasi et al. Environmental Health 2014 13:54
Conclusion:
Moderate densities of swine ….
were associated with MRSA nasal
carriage detected by PCR.
This finding is supported by past
evidence of associations between
MRSA nasal carriage and contact
with swine production.
Incidence of MRSA infections in DK in 2011
(Larsen et al., 2015)
Pig dense areas
All MRSA
 10.9/100,000 person-years
ST398 (no pig contact)
 0.7/100,000 person-years
Other areas
All MRSA
 12.8/100,000 person-years
ST398 (no pig contact)
 0.3/100,000 person-years
Larsen et al. (Euro Surveill. 2015)
 CC398 ‘has become a major cause of human disease in
Europe, posing a serious public health challenge in countries
with intensive livestock production’
 Suggests substantial dissemination of MRSA CC398 from
livestock or livestock workers into the Danish community
 Findings strongly suggest foodborne transmission does not
play a major role in the MRSA CC398 epidemiology
LA-MRSA in the USA
 Prevalence of LA-MRSA relatively low in US swine
 ST398, ST5, ST9 (Smith 2013, Sun 2015)
 Study of human laboratories in IA (Nair, 2016)
 LA-MRSA found in 0.24% of MRSA cases
 LA-MSSA ~ 1% of S. aureus infections
 Blood stream infections in NC (Fowler pers. comm)
 None of 1,222 MRSA cases (1995-2015)
 2 possible MSSA isolates (t034, t571)
Summary
 Livestock associated MRSA remains a difficult public
relations issue for the swine industry in many countries
 Difficult to communicate when ‘science’ is contributing
more noise than signal
 Author responsibilities
 Reviewing and editorial responsibilities
 University ‘Press releases’
 Potential case study in misinformation and biased
inference in science
12
Weighing the science?
‘It is lamentable how each man
draws his own different
conclusions from the very
same fact’
Charles Darwin

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Dr. Peter Davies - Providing Accurate And Trusted Information On Antibiotic Use And Resistance In An Increasingly Chaotic Information Environment

  • 1. Providing accurate and trusted information on antibiotic use and resistance in an increasingly chaotic information environment  Peter Davies BVSc, PhD College of Veterinary Medicine University of Minnesota
  • 2. Rational public discourse – a quaint idea  Politicization of food animal production  Internet pandemic misinformation  Misinformation more dangerous than ignorance  Conviction with which ideas are held  Is not correlated with whether they are true  Is correlated with indignation when challenged  Signal to noise ratio!
  • 3. Death by a thousand sound bites  Accusations are simple – realities are complex  Sound bite culture with acute time deficiency  Few follow complex arguments  Even fewer understand them  Detailed technical explanations do not get listened to  Bombardment of negative sound bites will continue  A complex defense is no defense, no matter how misinformed the accusations
  • 4. Noise polluters? 4 Knowledgeofthe‘facts’ Loyalty to the ‘facts’ Activists Professionals Journalists Scientists
  • 5. Livestock associated MRSA  First identified in Holland in 2004 (ST398)  Found in pigs and other food animals globally  Prevalence varies (~100% of pigs in DK, NL)  Other variants (ST9 in Asia; ST5 in North America, ..)  Human cases of infection documented  Relatively uncommon vs. human MRSA variants  Mostly non-invasive SSTI  ~10 fatal cases globally (medically compromised)  Serious infections rare in healthy swine workers 5
  • 6. LA- MRSA A threat to the neighborhood?  Consideration in permitting applications  Science divided?  Some studies suggest risk  Feingold (2011), Schinasi (2014), Carrell (2014), Casey (2014), Beresin (2017)  Flaws/limitations  Case/control or ecological  Fail to account for individual distance to farms, livestock contact, or MRSA type  More robust studies indicate negligible risk  Van Cleef (2009), Cuny 2009, Bisdorff (2011), Anker (2018) 6
  • 7. 7 Schinasi et al. Environmental Health 2014 13:54 Conclusion: Moderate densities of swine …. were associated with MRSA nasal carriage detected by PCR. This finding is supported by past evidence of associations between MRSA nasal carriage and contact with swine production.
  • 8.
  • 9. Incidence of MRSA infections in DK in 2011 (Larsen et al., 2015) Pig dense areas All MRSA  10.9/100,000 person-years ST398 (no pig contact)  0.7/100,000 person-years Other areas All MRSA  12.8/100,000 person-years ST398 (no pig contact)  0.3/100,000 person-years
  • 10. Larsen et al. (Euro Surveill. 2015)  CC398 ‘has become a major cause of human disease in Europe, posing a serious public health challenge in countries with intensive livestock production’  Suggests substantial dissemination of MRSA CC398 from livestock or livestock workers into the Danish community  Findings strongly suggest foodborne transmission does not play a major role in the MRSA CC398 epidemiology
  • 11. LA-MRSA in the USA  Prevalence of LA-MRSA relatively low in US swine  ST398, ST5, ST9 (Smith 2013, Sun 2015)  Study of human laboratories in IA (Nair, 2016)  LA-MRSA found in 0.24% of MRSA cases  LA-MSSA ~ 1% of S. aureus infections  Blood stream infections in NC (Fowler pers. comm)  None of 1,222 MRSA cases (1995-2015)  2 possible MSSA isolates (t034, t571)
  • 12. Summary  Livestock associated MRSA remains a difficult public relations issue for the swine industry in many countries  Difficult to communicate when ‘science’ is contributing more noise than signal  Author responsibilities  Reviewing and editorial responsibilities  University ‘Press releases’  Potential case study in misinformation and biased inference in science 12
  • 13. Weighing the science? ‘It is lamentable how each man draws his own different conclusions from the very same fact’ Charles Darwin