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Real World Talent Insights From Computer SimulationsAndrea Kropp
Teaching Talent Analytics executives how to use computer simulations to complement the predictive modeling work in HR. Simulations allow you to examine multiple scenarios and examine their end states and consequences before taking action.
Real World Talent Insights From Computer SimulationsAndrea Kropp
Teaching Talent Analytics executives how to use computer simulations to complement the predictive modeling work in HR. Simulations allow you to examine multiple scenarios and examine their end states and consequences before taking action.
06279 Topic PSY 325 Statistics for the Behavioral & Social Scienc.docxoswald1horne84988
06279 Topic: PSY 325 Statistics for the Behavioral & Social Sciences
Number of Pages: 2 (Double Spaced)
Number of sources: 3
Writing Style: APA
Type of document: Essay
Academic Level:Undergraduate
Category: Art
Language Style: English (U.S.)
Order Instructions: Attached
follow the requirements in the attached.
Running Head: ERM 1
ERM 4
ERM
Institution Affiliation
Student Name
Date
Mapping
ENTERPRISE RISK MANAGEMENT IN HEALTHCARE
A CLEARLY DEFINED STRATEGY WILL ENABLE THE EFFECTIVE IMPLEMENTATION OF ERM
COMMUNICATION BETWEEN THE EMPLOYEE AND THE EMPLOYER IS IMPORTANT WHEN IMPLEMENTING ERM IN HEALTHCARE ORGANIZATIONS
THE HEALTHCARE CULTURE AFFECTS THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ERM
a. Culture
1. The healthcare organization culture should support the Enterprise risk management strategy.
2. Organizations that adopt cultures for example unfairness, fear and allow disruptive behaviour are not ready for the implementation of ERM.
b. Strategy
1. A defined strategy will enable the implementation of ERM.
2. Strategic plan in the healthcare industry should cover six months to two years.
c. Communication
1. For effective implementation of ERM communication and education plan is important
2. The employees need to be educated on ERM.
Creating a connection
Culture
For the Enterprise Risk management to be implemented in the healthcare one of the key elements to consider is the culture of the organization. The governing body should ensure that the culture of the company will support the ERM program, (Meulbroek, 2017). If the healthcare engages in tactics that are not favorable to a learning environment, practice fear, employees are not treated fair and just. That means that the company is are not ready for the ERM program. The implications will be that ERM program will fail.
Strategy
A well-defined strategy or plan will be effective in the implementation of the ERM program. A strategy is a long-term plan that is used to achieve a particular set goal or objective. Historically, companies used to draft 5 years to 10 years’ strategic plan. However, today due to the rapid shift and complexity of the healthcare industry strategies cover six months to two years, (Olson & Wu, 2015). If the healthcare does not set a clear and well defined strategy. Then the implementation of ERM will fail.
Communication
Before the implementation of ERM, it is important to educate employees about the program. Communication and information channel should be in place to ensure that everyone in the company is well aware of the risks and the actions needed to be taken to mitigate the risk, (Carroll, 2016). The communication channel will also enable employees to be updated on the program progress. If the healthcare employees are not trained and proper channels of communication are not used then the implications or there is a high possibility that implementation of ERM will fail.
.
Not sure how to do this case analysis please help me do it!1.Are t.pdfamitbagga0808
Not sure how to do this case analysis please help me do it!
1.Are the regions similar?
2.What would be a good forecasting method to use?
3.Are there more advanced methods that might be considered?
Here is the data
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LYZHLx9f0Av9FJ6NLfULMU61cZPV3voqrVzbJNfV
jKk/edit?usp=sharing
Solution
Most people view the world as consisting of a large number of alternatives. Futures research
evolved as a way of examining the alternative futures and identifying the most probable.
Forecasting is designed to help decision making and planning in the present.
Forecasts empower people because their use implies that we can modify variables now to alter
(or be prepared for) the future. A prediction is an invitation to introduce change into a system.
There are several assumptions about forecasting:
1. There is no way to state what the future will be with complete certainty. Regardless of the
methods that we use there will always be an element of uncertainty until the forecast horizon has
come to pass.
2. There will always be blind spots in forecasts. We cannot, for example, forecast completely
new technologies for which there are no existing paradigms.
3. Providing forecasts to policy-makers will help them formulate social policy. The new social
policy, in turn, will affect the future, thus changing the accuracy of the forecast.
Many scholars have proposed a variety of ways to categorize forecasting methodologies. The
following classification is a modification of the schema developed by Gordon over two decades
ago:
Genius forecasting - This method is based on a combination of intuition, insight, and luck.
Psychics and crystal ball readers are the most extreme case of genius forecasting. Their forecasts
are based exclusively on intuition. Science fiction writers have sometimes described new
technologies with uncanny accuracy.
There are many examples where men and women have been remarkable successful at predicting
the future. There are also many examples of wrong forecasts. The weakness in genius forecasting
is that its impossible to recognize a good forecast until the forecast has come to pass.
Some psychic individuals are capable of producing consistently accurate forecasts. Mainstream
science generally ignores this fact because the implications are simply to difficult to accept. Our
current understanding of reality is not adequate to explain this phenomena.
Trend extrapolation - These methods examine trends and cycles in historical data, and then use
mathematical techniques to extrapolate to the future. The assumption of all these techniques is
that the forces responsible for creating the past, will continue to operate in the future. This is
often a valid assumption when forecasting short term horizons, but it falls short when creating
medium and long term forecasts. The further out we attempt to forecast, the less certain we
become of the forecast.
The stability of the environment is the key factor in determining whether tren.
ComputationalModellingofPublicPolicy:
ReflectionsonPractice
Nigel Gilbert1, Petra Ahrweiler2, Pete Barbrook-Johnson1, Kavin
PreethiNarasimhan1,HelenWilkinson3
1Department of Sociology, University of Surrey Guildford, GU2 7XH United Kingdom
2InstituteofSociology,JohannesGutenbergUniversityMainz,Jakob-Welder-Weg20,55128Mainz,Germany
3Risk
Solution
s, Dallam Court, Dallam Lane, Warrington, Cheshire, WA2 7LT, United Kingdom
Correspondence should be addressed to [email protected]
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 21(1) 14, 2018
Doi: 10.18564/jasss.3669 Url: http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/21/1/14.html
Received: 11-01-2018 Accepted: 11-01-2018 Published: 31-01-2018
Abstract: Computationalmodelsare increasinglybeingusedtoassist indeveloping, implementingandevalu-
ating public policy. This paper reports on the experience of the authors in designing and using computational
models of public policy (‘policy models’, for short). The paper considers the role of computational models in
policy making, and some of the challenges that need to be overcome if policy models are to make an e�ec-
tive contribution. It suggests that policy models can have an important place in the policy process because
they could allow policy makers to experiment in a virtual world, and have many advantages compared with
randomised control trials and policy pilots. The paper then summarises some general lessons that can be ex-
tractedfromtheauthors’experiencewithpolicymodelling. Thesegeneral lessonsincludetheobservationthat
o�enthemainbenefitofdesigningandusingamodelisthatitprovidesanunderstandingofthepolicydomain,
rather than the numbers it generates; that care needs to be taken that models are designed at an appropriate
level of abstraction; that although appropriate data for calibration and validation may sometimes be in short
supply, modelling is o�en still valuable; that modelling collaboratively and involving a range of stakeholders
from the outset increases the likelihood that the model will be used and will be fit for purpose; that attention
needstobepaidtoe�ectivecommunicationbetweenmodellersandstakeholders;andthatmodellingforpub-
lic policy involves ethical issues that need careful consideration. The paper concludes that policy modelling
will continue to grow in importance as a component of public policy making processes, but if its potential is to
befullyrealised, therewillneedtobeameldingoftheculturesofcomputationalmodellingandpolicymaking.
Keywords: Policy Modelling, Policy Evaluation, Policy Appraisal, Modelling Guidelines, Collaboration, Ethics
Introduction
1.1 Computationalmodelshavebeenusedtoassist indeveloping, implementingandevaluatingpublicpoliciesfor
at least threedecades,but theirpotential remainstobefullyexploited(Johnston&Desouza2015;Anzolaetal.
2017;Barbrook-Johnsonetal.2017). Inthispaper,usingaselectionofexamplesofcomputationalmodelsused
in public policy processes, we (i) consider the roles of models in policy making, (ii) explore .
ComputationalModellingofPublicPolicy:
ReflectionsonPractice
Nigel Gilbert1, Petra Ahrweiler2, Pete Barbrook-Johnson1, Kavin
PreethiNarasimhan1,HelenWilkinson3
1Department of Sociology, University of Surrey Guildford, GU2 7XH United Kingdom
2InstituteofSociology,JohannesGutenbergUniversityMainz,Jakob-Welder-Weg20,55128Mainz,Germany
3Risk
Solution
s, Dallam Court, Dallam Lane, Warrington, Cheshire, WA2 7LT, United Kingdom
Correspondence should be addressed to [email protected]
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 21(1) 14, 2018
Doi: 10.18564/jasss.3669 Url: http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/21/1/14.html
Received: 11-01-2018 Accepted: 11-01-2018 Published: 31-01-2018
Abstract: Computationalmodelsare increasinglybeingusedtoassist indeveloping, implementingandevalu-
ating public policy. This paper reports on the experience of the authors in designing and using computational
models of public policy (‘policy models’, for short). The paper considers the role of computational models in
policy making, and some of the challenges that need to be overcome if policy models are to make an e�ec-
tive contribution. It suggests that policy models can have an important place in the policy process because
they could allow policy makers to experiment in a virtual world, and have many advantages compared with
randomised control trials and policy pilots. The paper then summarises some general lessons that can be ex-
tractedfromtheauthors’experiencewithpolicymodelling. Thesegeneral lessonsincludetheobservationthat
o�enthemainbenefitofdesigningandusingamodelisthatitprovidesanunderstandingofthepolicydomain,
rather than the numbers it generates; that care needs to be taken that models are designed at an appropriate
level of abstraction; that although appropriate data for calibration and validation may sometimes be in short
supply, modelling is o�en still valuable; that modelling collaboratively and involving a range of stakeholders
from the outset increases the likelihood that the model will be used and will be fit for purpose; that attention
needstobepaidtoe�ectivecommunicationbetweenmodellersandstakeholders;andthatmodellingforpub-
lic policy involves ethical issues that need careful consideration. The paper concludes that policy modelling
will continue to grow in importance as a component of public policy making processes, but if its potential is to
befullyrealised, therewillneedtobeameldingoftheculturesofcomputationalmodellingandpolicymaking.
Keywords: Policy Modelling, Policy Evaluation, Policy Appraisal, Modelling Guidelines, Collaboration, Ethics
Introduction
1.1 Computationalmodelshavebeenusedtoassist indeveloping, implementingandevaluatingpublicpoliciesfor
at least threedecades,but theirpotential remainstobefullyexploited(Johnston&Desouza2015;Anzolaetal.
2017;Barbrook-Johnsonetal.2017). Inthispaper,usingaselectionofexamplesofcomputationalmodelsused
in public policy processes, we (i) consider the roles of models in policy making, (ii) explore ...
Bayesian Model Fusion for Forecasting Civil UnrestParang Saraf
Abstract: With the rapid rise in social media, alternative news sources, and blogs, ordinary citizens have become information producers as much as information consumers. Highly charged prose, images, and videos spread virally, and stoke the embers of social unrest by alerting fellow citizens to relevant happenings and
spurring them into action. We are interested in using Big Data approaches to generate forecasts of civil unrest from open source indicators. The heterogenous nature of data coupled with the rich and diverse origins of civil unrest call for a multi-model approach to such forecasting. We present a modular approach wherein a collection of models use overlapping sources of data to independently forecast protests. Fusion of alerts into one single alert stream becomes a key system informatics problem and we present a statistical framework to accomplish such fusion. Given an alert from one of the numerous models, the decision space
for fusion has two possibilities: (i) release the alert or (ii) suppress the alert. Using a Bayesian decision theoretical framework, we present a fusion approach for releasing or suppressing alerts. The resulting system enables real-time decisions and more importantly tuning of precision and recall. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
For more information, please visit: http://people.cs.vt.edu/parang/ or contact parang at firstname at cs vt edu
Running head Multi-actor modelling system 1Multi-actor mod.docxtodd581
Running head: Multi-actor modelling system 1
Multi-actor modelling system3
Multi-actor modelling system
Yogesh Dagwale
University of the Cumberland’s
Ligtenberg, A., Wachowicz, M., Bregt, A. K., Beulens, A., & Kettenis, D. L. (2004). A design and application of a multi-agent system for simulation of multi-actor spatial planning. Journal of environmental management, 72(1-2), 43-55.
They talk about the potential and restrictions of the MAS to manufacture models that empower spatial organizers to incorporate the 'actor factor' in their examination. Their structure system contemplates actors who assume a functioning job in the spatial planning. They included actors who can watch and see a spatial domain. Using these perceptions and discernment they produce an inclination for a preferred spatial situation. Actors at that point present and discuss their inclinations amid their exchanges with different actors.
The inclinations of the actor fill in as inputs for an official choice making. Finally, ultimate conclusions are actualized in the spatial framework. They found that MAS can produce space utilization designs in light of a portrayal of a multi-actor planning process. It additionally can clear up the impacts of actors under the administration of various planning styles on the space utilization and prove how the relations between actors change amid a planning process and under different orders of coming up with decisions. Unlike the work by Parker, Manson, Janssen, Hoffman & Deadman,2003, cited below, this paper did not include the various challenges associated with the use of MAS.
Parker, D. C., Manson, S. M., Janssen, M. A., Hoffmann, M. J., & Deadman, P. (2003). Multi-agent systems for the simulation of land-use and land-cover change: a review. Annals of the association of American Geographers, 93(2), 314-337.
In this paper, they studied different models. These models, however, were not thorough enough and therefore they took into account the multi-actor system, dynamic spatial Simulation, which has two components, that is, a cellular model that speaks to biogeophysical and biological parts of a demonstrated framework and an actor-based model to speak to human conclusion making. Because of its nature and ability to model complex situations, they highlighted some of the areas that MAS can be applied where other models cannot be able to deliver. Such areas are modeling of emergent phenomena whereby MAS can model landscape plans, due to its flexibility, MAS can represent complex land use/ cover systems, and they can be used to model dynamic paths. They also outlined the various challenges to Multi-actor systems. Such challenges include an understanding of complexity, individual decision making, empirical parameterization and model validation, and communication.
Faber, N. R., & Jorna, R. J. (2011, June). The use of multi-actor systems for studying social sustainability: Theoretical backgrounds and pseudo-specifications. In Com.
Running head Multi-actor modelling system 1Multi-actor mod.docxglendar3
Running head: Multi-actor modelling system 1
Multi-actor modelling system3
Multi-actor modelling system
Yogesh Dagwale
University of the Cumberland’s
Ligtenberg, A., Wachowicz, M., Bregt, A. K., Beulens, A., & Kettenis, D. L. (2004). A design and application of a multi-agent system for simulation of multi-actor spatial planning. Journal of environmental management, 72(1-2), 43-55.
They talk about the potential and restrictions of the MAS to manufacture models that empower spatial organizers to incorporate the 'actor factor' in their examination. Their structure system contemplates actors who assume a functioning job in the spatial planning. They included actors who can watch and see a spatial domain. Using these perceptions and discernment they produce an inclination for a preferred spatial situation. Actors at that point present and discuss their inclinations amid their exchanges with different actors.
The inclinations of the actor fill in as inputs for an official choice making. Finally, ultimate conclusions are actualized in the spatial framework. They found that MAS can produce space utilization designs in light of a portrayal of a multi-actor planning process. It additionally can clear up the impacts of actors under the administration of various planning styles on the space utilization and prove how the relations between actors change amid a planning process and under different orders of coming up with decisions. Unlike the work by Parker, Manson, Janssen, Hoffman & Deadman,2003, cited below, this paper did not include the various challenges associated with the use of MAS.
Parker, D. C., Manson, S. M., Janssen, M. A., Hoffmann, M. J., & Deadman, P. (2003). Multi-agent systems for the simulation of land-use and land-cover change: a review. Annals of the association of American Geographers, 93(2), 314-337.
In this paper, they studied different models. These models, however, were not thorough enough and therefore they took into account the multi-actor system, dynamic spatial Simulation, which has two components, that is, a cellular model that speaks to biogeophysical and biological parts of a demonstrated framework and an actor-based model to speak to human conclusion making. Because of its nature and ability to model complex situations, they highlighted some of the areas that MAS can be applied where other models cannot be able to deliver. Such areas are modeling of emergent phenomena whereby MAS can model landscape plans, due to its flexibility, MAS can represent complex land use/ cover systems, and they can be used to model dynamic paths. They also outlined the various challenges to Multi-actor systems. Such challenges include an understanding of complexity, individual decision making, empirical parameterization and model validation, and communication.
Faber, N. R., & Jorna, R. J. (2011, June). The use of multi-actor systems for studying social sustainability: Theoretical backgrounds and pseudo-specifications. In Com.
Neural Networks Models for Large Social SystemsSSA KPI
AACIMP 2010 Summer School lecture by Alexander Makarenko. "Applied Mathematics" stream. "General Tasks and Problems of Modelling of Social Systems. Problems and Models in Sustainable Development" course. Part 3.
More info at http://summerschool.ssa.org.ua
System Dynamics Modeling for IntellectualDisability Services.docxmabelf3
System Dynamics Modeling for Intellectual
Disability Services: A Case Studyjppi_342 112..119
Meri Duryan*,†, Dragan Nikolik‡, Godefridus van Merode§, and Leopold Curfs*,§
*Gouverneur Kremers Centrum; †University of Maastricht; ‡Maastricht School of Management; and §Maastricht University Medical
Center, Maastricht, the Netherlands
Abstract Organizations providing services to persons with intellectual disabilities (ID) are complex because of many interacting
stakeholders with often different and competing interests. The combination of increased consumer demand and diminished resources
makes organizational planning a challenge for the managers of such organizations. Such challenges are confounded by significant
demands for the optimization of resources and the goal to reduce expenses and to more effectively and efficiently use existing
resources while at the same time providing high quality services. The authors explore the possibilities of using “system dynamics
modelling” in organizational decision-making processes related to resource allocations. System dynamics suggests the application of
generic systems archetypes as a first step in interpreting complex situations in an organization. The authors illustrate the application
of this method via a case study in one provider organization in the Netherlands. The authors contend that such a modeling approach
can be used by the management of similar organizations serving people with ID as a tool to support decision making that can result
in optimal resource allocation.
Keywords: allocation of resources, intellectual disabilities, system dynamics modeling, systems thinking, waiting lists
INTRODUCTION
Healthcare organizations are complex entities as they have
multiple stakeholders with often conflicting objectives and goals
(Drucker, 1993). Provider organizations specializing in intellec-
tual disabilities (ID) are also complex because of the nature of the
care and supports they provide and how they are organized. Some
of the complexities relate to the difficulties that adults with ID
might have in expressing themselves. Moreover, the specifics of
the care often require a deeper involvement of carers with respect
to their relationships with families and other sectors of society.
Because of their complexity, ID provider organizations, com-
pared with healthcare providers, often require a higher level of
resource planning, collaboration, and cooperation among social,
health, and education services, mental health services, and other
sectors (WHO, 2010).
To manage the complexities and challenges ID provider orga-
nizations face, managers need to analyze and understand complex
interdependencies among the systems with which they are dealing.
In order to achieve that, ID provider managers need to examine
and shift their mental models regarding their role in managing
the organization and in establishing relationships with all the
stakeholders involved. However, as Forrester (1980) has noted,
traditiona.
Christian Schussele Men of ProgressOil on canvas, 1862Coope.docxtroutmanboris
Christian Schussele Men of Progress
Oil on canvas, 1862
Cooper Union, New York, New York
Transfer from the National Gallery of Art; gift of Andrew W. Mellon, 1942
NPG.65.60
Edward Sorel, “People of Progress” 1999, Cooper Union, New York, New York
Syllabus
The clerks of the Department of State of the United States may be called upon to give evidence of transactions in the Department which are not of a confidential character.
The Secretary of State cannot be called upon as a witness to state transactions of a confidential nature which may have occurred in his Department. But he may be called upon to give testimony of circumstances which were not of that character.
Clerks in the Department of State were directed to be sworn, subject to objections to questions upon confidential matters.
Some point of time must be taken when the power of the Executive over an officer, not removable at his will, must cease. That point of time must be when the constitutional power of appointment has been exercised. And the power has been exercised when the last act required from the person possessing the power has been performed. This last act is the signature of the commission.
If the act of livery be necessary to give validity to the commission of an officer, it has been delivered when executed, and given to the Secretary of State for the purpose of being sealed, recorded, and transmitted to the party.
In cases of commissions to public officers, the law orders the Secretary of State to record them. When, therefore, they are signed and sealed, the order for their being recorded is given, and, whether inserted inserted into the book or not, they are recorded.
When the heads of the departments of the Government are the political or confidential officers of the Executive, merely to execute the will of the President, or rather to act in cases in which the Executive possesses a constitutional or legal discretion, nothing can be more perfectly clear than that their acts are only politically examinable. But where a specific duty is assigned by law, and individual rights depend upon the performance of that duty, it seems equally clear that the individual who considers himself injured has a right to resort to the laws of his country for a remedy.
The President of the United States, by signing the commission, appointed Mr. Marbury a justice of the peace for the County of Washington, in the District of Columbia, and the seal of the United States, affixed thereto by the Secretary of State, is conclusive testimony of the verity of the signature, and of the completion of the appointment; and the appointment conferred on him a legal right to the office for the space of five years. Having this legal right to the office, he has a consequent right to the commission, a refusal to deliver which is a plain violation of that right for which the laws of the country afford him a remedy.
To render a mandamus a proper remedy, the officer to whom it is directed must be one to who.
Christian EthicsChristian ethics deeply align with absolutism. E.docxtroutmanboris
Christian Ethics
Christian ethics deeply align with absolutism. Ethical absolutism claims that moral principles do exist. According to Christians, God created moral absolutes. These absolutes can be seen in God’s revelation. God’s special and general revelation reveal his moral truths. This does not mean that only Christians can understand moral truths. Because humans are made in God’s image, they can recognize moral truths even if they do not believe in God
[1]
. These absolutes were instated by God. Therefore, they apply to all of humanity. This worldview is in direct opposition to the idea of relativism. Christian ethics cannot be viewed through a relativistic point of view. According to relativism, there is no moral truths. There is no absolute distinction between right and wrong within this way of thinking. Right and wrong can be decided by individuals or groups of people. Cultures decide what is right for themselves and their way of life. Even individuals have the ability to decide their own personal moral code. This can seem somewhat reasonable at times. Some things that were considered moral or immoral in the past are viewed differently today. Even with this understanding, Christians deny the idea of relativism. Christians hold to the belief that moral truths come from God. Therefore, these truths do not change. God himself never changes; therefore, his moral truths remain the same. According to Christian ethics, mankind is expected to hold to the moral absolutes mandated by God himself. This understanding is not compatible with relativism. Relativism makes no place of a God. From a relativistic point of view, mankind decides their own morality. Right and wrong are not fixed. In Christian ethics, right and wrong are permanently decided by the God of the universe.
The subjective aspects of Christian ethics can look similar to relativism. The areas that are somewhat subjective in Christian aspects are referred to as the liberties of a Christian. There are some matters that are not said to be morally wrong in the Bible. Some see these issues to be wrong; therefore, they are. Others do not find certain issues to be morally wrong. These individuals are claiming their Christian liberty. One of these issues is drinking alcohol. Some Christians believe that ingesting any amount of alcohol is morally wrong. According to the idea of Christian liberty, it would be wrong for the individuals who hold to this belief to drink alcohol. Others do not have this conviction and are not doing wrong by consuming alcohol. On the surface, the idea of Christian liberty can seem to be related to relativism, but upon closer inspection these ideas are not closely related. Christian liberty is a Biblical concept that harmonize well with the overall message of the Bible. Relativism is nowhere found in the Bible. The Bible is clear that there are universal moral laws. These laws are placed upon humanity by God himself. There are some areas where the Bible remain.
More Related Content
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06279 Topic PSY 325 Statistics for the Behavioral & Social Scienc.docxoswald1horne84988
06279 Topic: PSY 325 Statistics for the Behavioral & Social Sciences
Number of Pages: 2 (Double Spaced)
Number of sources: 3
Writing Style: APA
Type of document: Essay
Academic Level:Undergraduate
Category: Art
Language Style: English (U.S.)
Order Instructions: Attached
follow the requirements in the attached.
Running Head: ERM 1
ERM 4
ERM
Institution Affiliation
Student Name
Date
Mapping
ENTERPRISE RISK MANAGEMENT IN HEALTHCARE
A CLEARLY DEFINED STRATEGY WILL ENABLE THE EFFECTIVE IMPLEMENTATION OF ERM
COMMUNICATION BETWEEN THE EMPLOYEE AND THE EMPLOYER IS IMPORTANT WHEN IMPLEMENTING ERM IN HEALTHCARE ORGANIZATIONS
THE HEALTHCARE CULTURE AFFECTS THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ERM
a. Culture
1. The healthcare organization culture should support the Enterprise risk management strategy.
2. Organizations that adopt cultures for example unfairness, fear and allow disruptive behaviour are not ready for the implementation of ERM.
b. Strategy
1. A defined strategy will enable the implementation of ERM.
2. Strategic plan in the healthcare industry should cover six months to two years.
c. Communication
1. For effective implementation of ERM communication and education plan is important
2. The employees need to be educated on ERM.
Creating a connection
Culture
For the Enterprise Risk management to be implemented in the healthcare one of the key elements to consider is the culture of the organization. The governing body should ensure that the culture of the company will support the ERM program, (Meulbroek, 2017). If the healthcare engages in tactics that are not favorable to a learning environment, practice fear, employees are not treated fair and just. That means that the company is are not ready for the ERM program. The implications will be that ERM program will fail.
Strategy
A well-defined strategy or plan will be effective in the implementation of the ERM program. A strategy is a long-term plan that is used to achieve a particular set goal or objective. Historically, companies used to draft 5 years to 10 years’ strategic plan. However, today due to the rapid shift and complexity of the healthcare industry strategies cover six months to two years, (Olson & Wu, 2015). If the healthcare does not set a clear and well defined strategy. Then the implementation of ERM will fail.
Communication
Before the implementation of ERM, it is important to educate employees about the program. Communication and information channel should be in place to ensure that everyone in the company is well aware of the risks and the actions needed to be taken to mitigate the risk, (Carroll, 2016). The communication channel will also enable employees to be updated on the program progress. If the healthcare employees are not trained and proper channels of communication are not used then the implications or there is a high possibility that implementation of ERM will fail.
.
Not sure how to do this case analysis please help me do it!1.Are t.pdfamitbagga0808
Not sure how to do this case analysis please help me do it!
1.Are the regions similar?
2.What would be a good forecasting method to use?
3.Are there more advanced methods that might be considered?
Here is the data
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LYZHLx9f0Av9FJ6NLfULMU61cZPV3voqrVzbJNfV
jKk/edit?usp=sharing
Solution
Most people view the world as consisting of a large number of alternatives. Futures research
evolved as a way of examining the alternative futures and identifying the most probable.
Forecasting is designed to help decision making and planning in the present.
Forecasts empower people because their use implies that we can modify variables now to alter
(or be prepared for) the future. A prediction is an invitation to introduce change into a system.
There are several assumptions about forecasting:
1. There is no way to state what the future will be with complete certainty. Regardless of the
methods that we use there will always be an element of uncertainty until the forecast horizon has
come to pass.
2. There will always be blind spots in forecasts. We cannot, for example, forecast completely
new technologies for which there are no existing paradigms.
3. Providing forecasts to policy-makers will help them formulate social policy. The new social
policy, in turn, will affect the future, thus changing the accuracy of the forecast.
Many scholars have proposed a variety of ways to categorize forecasting methodologies. The
following classification is a modification of the schema developed by Gordon over two decades
ago:
Genius forecasting - This method is based on a combination of intuition, insight, and luck.
Psychics and crystal ball readers are the most extreme case of genius forecasting. Their forecasts
are based exclusively on intuition. Science fiction writers have sometimes described new
technologies with uncanny accuracy.
There are many examples where men and women have been remarkable successful at predicting
the future. There are also many examples of wrong forecasts. The weakness in genius forecasting
is that its impossible to recognize a good forecast until the forecast has come to pass.
Some psychic individuals are capable of producing consistently accurate forecasts. Mainstream
science generally ignores this fact because the implications are simply to difficult to accept. Our
current understanding of reality is not adequate to explain this phenomena.
Trend extrapolation - These methods examine trends and cycles in historical data, and then use
mathematical techniques to extrapolate to the future. The assumption of all these techniques is
that the forces responsible for creating the past, will continue to operate in the future. This is
often a valid assumption when forecasting short term horizons, but it falls short when creating
medium and long term forecasts. The further out we attempt to forecast, the less certain we
become of the forecast.
The stability of the environment is the key factor in determining whether tren.
ComputationalModellingofPublicPolicy:
ReflectionsonPractice
Nigel Gilbert1, Petra Ahrweiler2, Pete Barbrook-Johnson1, Kavin
PreethiNarasimhan1,HelenWilkinson3
1Department of Sociology, University of Surrey Guildford, GU2 7XH United Kingdom
2InstituteofSociology,JohannesGutenbergUniversityMainz,Jakob-Welder-Weg20,55128Mainz,Germany
3Risk
Solution
s, Dallam Court, Dallam Lane, Warrington, Cheshire, WA2 7LT, United Kingdom
Correspondence should be addressed to [email protected]
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 21(1) 14, 2018
Doi: 10.18564/jasss.3669 Url: http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/21/1/14.html
Received: 11-01-2018 Accepted: 11-01-2018 Published: 31-01-2018
Abstract: Computationalmodelsare increasinglybeingusedtoassist indeveloping, implementingandevalu-
ating public policy. This paper reports on the experience of the authors in designing and using computational
models of public policy (‘policy models’, for short). The paper considers the role of computational models in
policy making, and some of the challenges that need to be overcome if policy models are to make an e�ec-
tive contribution. It suggests that policy models can have an important place in the policy process because
they could allow policy makers to experiment in a virtual world, and have many advantages compared with
randomised control trials and policy pilots. The paper then summarises some general lessons that can be ex-
tractedfromtheauthors’experiencewithpolicymodelling. Thesegeneral lessonsincludetheobservationthat
o�enthemainbenefitofdesigningandusingamodelisthatitprovidesanunderstandingofthepolicydomain,
rather than the numbers it generates; that care needs to be taken that models are designed at an appropriate
level of abstraction; that although appropriate data for calibration and validation may sometimes be in short
supply, modelling is o�en still valuable; that modelling collaboratively and involving a range of stakeholders
from the outset increases the likelihood that the model will be used and will be fit for purpose; that attention
needstobepaidtoe�ectivecommunicationbetweenmodellersandstakeholders;andthatmodellingforpub-
lic policy involves ethical issues that need careful consideration. The paper concludes that policy modelling
will continue to grow in importance as a component of public policy making processes, but if its potential is to
befullyrealised, therewillneedtobeameldingoftheculturesofcomputationalmodellingandpolicymaking.
Keywords: Policy Modelling, Policy Evaluation, Policy Appraisal, Modelling Guidelines, Collaboration, Ethics
Introduction
1.1 Computationalmodelshavebeenusedtoassist indeveloping, implementingandevaluatingpublicpoliciesfor
at least threedecades,but theirpotential remainstobefullyexploited(Johnston&Desouza2015;Anzolaetal.
2017;Barbrook-Johnsonetal.2017). Inthispaper,usingaselectionofexamplesofcomputationalmodelsused
in public policy processes, we (i) consider the roles of models in policy making, (ii) explore .
ComputationalModellingofPublicPolicy:
ReflectionsonPractice
Nigel Gilbert1, Petra Ahrweiler2, Pete Barbrook-Johnson1, Kavin
PreethiNarasimhan1,HelenWilkinson3
1Department of Sociology, University of Surrey Guildford, GU2 7XH United Kingdom
2InstituteofSociology,JohannesGutenbergUniversityMainz,Jakob-Welder-Weg20,55128Mainz,Germany
3Risk
Solution
s, Dallam Court, Dallam Lane, Warrington, Cheshire, WA2 7LT, United Kingdom
Correspondence should be addressed to [email protected]
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 21(1) 14, 2018
Doi: 10.18564/jasss.3669 Url: http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/21/1/14.html
Received: 11-01-2018 Accepted: 11-01-2018 Published: 31-01-2018
Abstract: Computationalmodelsare increasinglybeingusedtoassist indeveloping, implementingandevalu-
ating public policy. This paper reports on the experience of the authors in designing and using computational
models of public policy (‘policy models’, for short). The paper considers the role of computational models in
policy making, and some of the challenges that need to be overcome if policy models are to make an e�ec-
tive contribution. It suggests that policy models can have an important place in the policy process because
they could allow policy makers to experiment in a virtual world, and have many advantages compared with
randomised control trials and policy pilots. The paper then summarises some general lessons that can be ex-
tractedfromtheauthors’experiencewithpolicymodelling. Thesegeneral lessonsincludetheobservationthat
o�enthemainbenefitofdesigningandusingamodelisthatitprovidesanunderstandingofthepolicydomain,
rather than the numbers it generates; that care needs to be taken that models are designed at an appropriate
level of abstraction; that although appropriate data for calibration and validation may sometimes be in short
supply, modelling is o�en still valuable; that modelling collaboratively and involving a range of stakeholders
from the outset increases the likelihood that the model will be used and will be fit for purpose; that attention
needstobepaidtoe�ectivecommunicationbetweenmodellersandstakeholders;andthatmodellingforpub-
lic policy involves ethical issues that need careful consideration. The paper concludes that policy modelling
will continue to grow in importance as a component of public policy making processes, but if its potential is to
befullyrealised, therewillneedtobeameldingoftheculturesofcomputationalmodellingandpolicymaking.
Keywords: Policy Modelling, Policy Evaluation, Policy Appraisal, Modelling Guidelines, Collaboration, Ethics
Introduction
1.1 Computationalmodelshavebeenusedtoassist indeveloping, implementingandevaluatingpublicpoliciesfor
at least threedecades,but theirpotential remainstobefullyexploited(Johnston&Desouza2015;Anzolaetal.
2017;Barbrook-Johnsonetal.2017). Inthispaper,usingaselectionofexamplesofcomputationalmodelsused
in public policy processes, we (i) consider the roles of models in policy making, (ii) explore ...
Bayesian Model Fusion for Forecasting Civil UnrestParang Saraf
Abstract: With the rapid rise in social media, alternative news sources, and blogs, ordinary citizens have become information producers as much as information consumers. Highly charged prose, images, and videos spread virally, and stoke the embers of social unrest by alerting fellow citizens to relevant happenings and
spurring them into action. We are interested in using Big Data approaches to generate forecasts of civil unrest from open source indicators. The heterogenous nature of data coupled with the rich and diverse origins of civil unrest call for a multi-model approach to such forecasting. We present a modular approach wherein a collection of models use overlapping sources of data to independently forecast protests. Fusion of alerts into one single alert stream becomes a key system informatics problem and we present a statistical framework to accomplish such fusion. Given an alert from one of the numerous models, the decision space
for fusion has two possibilities: (i) release the alert or (ii) suppress the alert. Using a Bayesian decision theoretical framework, we present a fusion approach for releasing or suppressing alerts. The resulting system enables real-time decisions and more importantly tuning of precision and recall. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
For more information, please visit: http://people.cs.vt.edu/parang/ or contact parang at firstname at cs vt edu
Running head Multi-actor modelling system 1Multi-actor mod.docxtodd581
Running head: Multi-actor modelling system 1
Multi-actor modelling system3
Multi-actor modelling system
Yogesh Dagwale
University of the Cumberland’s
Ligtenberg, A., Wachowicz, M., Bregt, A. K., Beulens, A., & Kettenis, D. L. (2004). A design and application of a multi-agent system for simulation of multi-actor spatial planning. Journal of environmental management, 72(1-2), 43-55.
They talk about the potential and restrictions of the MAS to manufacture models that empower spatial organizers to incorporate the 'actor factor' in their examination. Their structure system contemplates actors who assume a functioning job in the spatial planning. They included actors who can watch and see a spatial domain. Using these perceptions and discernment they produce an inclination for a preferred spatial situation. Actors at that point present and discuss their inclinations amid their exchanges with different actors.
The inclinations of the actor fill in as inputs for an official choice making. Finally, ultimate conclusions are actualized in the spatial framework. They found that MAS can produce space utilization designs in light of a portrayal of a multi-actor planning process. It additionally can clear up the impacts of actors under the administration of various planning styles on the space utilization and prove how the relations between actors change amid a planning process and under different orders of coming up with decisions. Unlike the work by Parker, Manson, Janssen, Hoffman & Deadman,2003, cited below, this paper did not include the various challenges associated with the use of MAS.
Parker, D. C., Manson, S. M., Janssen, M. A., Hoffmann, M. J., & Deadman, P. (2003). Multi-agent systems for the simulation of land-use and land-cover change: a review. Annals of the association of American Geographers, 93(2), 314-337.
In this paper, they studied different models. These models, however, were not thorough enough and therefore they took into account the multi-actor system, dynamic spatial Simulation, which has two components, that is, a cellular model that speaks to biogeophysical and biological parts of a demonstrated framework and an actor-based model to speak to human conclusion making. Because of its nature and ability to model complex situations, they highlighted some of the areas that MAS can be applied where other models cannot be able to deliver. Such areas are modeling of emergent phenomena whereby MAS can model landscape plans, due to its flexibility, MAS can represent complex land use/ cover systems, and they can be used to model dynamic paths. They also outlined the various challenges to Multi-actor systems. Such challenges include an understanding of complexity, individual decision making, empirical parameterization and model validation, and communication.
Faber, N. R., & Jorna, R. J. (2011, June). The use of multi-actor systems for studying social sustainability: Theoretical backgrounds and pseudo-specifications. In Com.
Running head Multi-actor modelling system 1Multi-actor mod.docxglendar3
Running head: Multi-actor modelling system 1
Multi-actor modelling system3
Multi-actor modelling system
Yogesh Dagwale
University of the Cumberland’s
Ligtenberg, A., Wachowicz, M., Bregt, A. K., Beulens, A., & Kettenis, D. L. (2004). A design and application of a multi-agent system for simulation of multi-actor spatial planning. Journal of environmental management, 72(1-2), 43-55.
They talk about the potential and restrictions of the MAS to manufacture models that empower spatial organizers to incorporate the 'actor factor' in their examination. Their structure system contemplates actors who assume a functioning job in the spatial planning. They included actors who can watch and see a spatial domain. Using these perceptions and discernment they produce an inclination for a preferred spatial situation. Actors at that point present and discuss their inclinations amid their exchanges with different actors.
The inclinations of the actor fill in as inputs for an official choice making. Finally, ultimate conclusions are actualized in the spatial framework. They found that MAS can produce space utilization designs in light of a portrayal of a multi-actor planning process. It additionally can clear up the impacts of actors under the administration of various planning styles on the space utilization and prove how the relations between actors change amid a planning process and under different orders of coming up with decisions. Unlike the work by Parker, Manson, Janssen, Hoffman & Deadman,2003, cited below, this paper did not include the various challenges associated with the use of MAS.
Parker, D. C., Manson, S. M., Janssen, M. A., Hoffmann, M. J., & Deadman, P. (2003). Multi-agent systems for the simulation of land-use and land-cover change: a review. Annals of the association of American Geographers, 93(2), 314-337.
In this paper, they studied different models. These models, however, were not thorough enough and therefore they took into account the multi-actor system, dynamic spatial Simulation, which has two components, that is, a cellular model that speaks to biogeophysical and biological parts of a demonstrated framework and an actor-based model to speak to human conclusion making. Because of its nature and ability to model complex situations, they highlighted some of the areas that MAS can be applied where other models cannot be able to deliver. Such areas are modeling of emergent phenomena whereby MAS can model landscape plans, due to its flexibility, MAS can represent complex land use/ cover systems, and they can be used to model dynamic paths. They also outlined the various challenges to Multi-actor systems. Such challenges include an understanding of complexity, individual decision making, empirical parameterization and model validation, and communication.
Faber, N. R., & Jorna, R. J. (2011, June). The use of multi-actor systems for studying social sustainability: Theoretical backgrounds and pseudo-specifications. In Com.
Neural Networks Models for Large Social SystemsSSA KPI
AACIMP 2010 Summer School lecture by Alexander Makarenko. "Applied Mathematics" stream. "General Tasks and Problems of Modelling of Social Systems. Problems and Models in Sustainable Development" course. Part 3.
More info at http://summerschool.ssa.org.ua
System Dynamics Modeling for IntellectualDisability Services.docxmabelf3
System Dynamics Modeling for Intellectual
Disability Services: A Case Studyjppi_342 112..119
Meri Duryan*,†, Dragan Nikolik‡, Godefridus van Merode§, and Leopold Curfs*,§
*Gouverneur Kremers Centrum; †University of Maastricht; ‡Maastricht School of Management; and §Maastricht University Medical
Center, Maastricht, the Netherlands
Abstract Organizations providing services to persons with intellectual disabilities (ID) are complex because of many interacting
stakeholders with often different and competing interests. The combination of increased consumer demand and diminished resources
makes organizational planning a challenge for the managers of such organizations. Such challenges are confounded by significant
demands for the optimization of resources and the goal to reduce expenses and to more effectively and efficiently use existing
resources while at the same time providing high quality services. The authors explore the possibilities of using “system dynamics
modelling” in organizational decision-making processes related to resource allocations. System dynamics suggests the application of
generic systems archetypes as a first step in interpreting complex situations in an organization. The authors illustrate the application
of this method via a case study in one provider organization in the Netherlands. The authors contend that such a modeling approach
can be used by the management of similar organizations serving people with ID as a tool to support decision making that can result
in optimal resource allocation.
Keywords: allocation of resources, intellectual disabilities, system dynamics modeling, systems thinking, waiting lists
INTRODUCTION
Healthcare organizations are complex entities as they have
multiple stakeholders with often conflicting objectives and goals
(Drucker, 1993). Provider organizations specializing in intellec-
tual disabilities (ID) are also complex because of the nature of the
care and supports they provide and how they are organized. Some
of the complexities relate to the difficulties that adults with ID
might have in expressing themselves. Moreover, the specifics of
the care often require a deeper involvement of carers with respect
to their relationships with families and other sectors of society.
Because of their complexity, ID provider organizations, com-
pared with healthcare providers, often require a higher level of
resource planning, collaboration, and cooperation among social,
health, and education services, mental health services, and other
sectors (WHO, 2010).
To manage the complexities and challenges ID provider orga-
nizations face, managers need to analyze and understand complex
interdependencies among the systems with which they are dealing.
In order to achieve that, ID provider managers need to examine
and shift their mental models regarding their role in managing
the organization and in establishing relationships with all the
stakeholders involved. However, as Forrester (1980) has noted,
traditiona.
Christian Schussele Men of ProgressOil on canvas, 1862Coope.docxtroutmanboris
Christian Schussele Men of Progress
Oil on canvas, 1862
Cooper Union, New York, New York
Transfer from the National Gallery of Art; gift of Andrew W. Mellon, 1942
NPG.65.60
Edward Sorel, “People of Progress” 1999, Cooper Union, New York, New York
Syllabus
The clerks of the Department of State of the United States may be called upon to give evidence of transactions in the Department which are not of a confidential character.
The Secretary of State cannot be called upon as a witness to state transactions of a confidential nature which may have occurred in his Department. But he may be called upon to give testimony of circumstances which were not of that character.
Clerks in the Department of State were directed to be sworn, subject to objections to questions upon confidential matters.
Some point of time must be taken when the power of the Executive over an officer, not removable at his will, must cease. That point of time must be when the constitutional power of appointment has been exercised. And the power has been exercised when the last act required from the person possessing the power has been performed. This last act is the signature of the commission.
If the act of livery be necessary to give validity to the commission of an officer, it has been delivered when executed, and given to the Secretary of State for the purpose of being sealed, recorded, and transmitted to the party.
In cases of commissions to public officers, the law orders the Secretary of State to record them. When, therefore, they are signed and sealed, the order for their being recorded is given, and, whether inserted inserted into the book or not, they are recorded.
When the heads of the departments of the Government are the political or confidential officers of the Executive, merely to execute the will of the President, or rather to act in cases in which the Executive possesses a constitutional or legal discretion, nothing can be more perfectly clear than that their acts are only politically examinable. But where a specific duty is assigned by law, and individual rights depend upon the performance of that duty, it seems equally clear that the individual who considers himself injured has a right to resort to the laws of his country for a remedy.
The President of the United States, by signing the commission, appointed Mr. Marbury a justice of the peace for the County of Washington, in the District of Columbia, and the seal of the United States, affixed thereto by the Secretary of State, is conclusive testimony of the verity of the signature, and of the completion of the appointment; and the appointment conferred on him a legal right to the office for the space of five years. Having this legal right to the office, he has a consequent right to the commission, a refusal to deliver which is a plain violation of that right for which the laws of the country afford him a remedy.
To render a mandamus a proper remedy, the officer to whom it is directed must be one to who.
Christian EthicsChristian ethics deeply align with absolutism. E.docxtroutmanboris
Christian Ethics
Christian ethics deeply align with absolutism. Ethical absolutism claims that moral principles do exist. According to Christians, God created moral absolutes. These absolutes can be seen in God’s revelation. God’s special and general revelation reveal his moral truths. This does not mean that only Christians can understand moral truths. Because humans are made in God’s image, they can recognize moral truths even if they do not believe in God
[1]
. These absolutes were instated by God. Therefore, they apply to all of humanity. This worldview is in direct opposition to the idea of relativism. Christian ethics cannot be viewed through a relativistic point of view. According to relativism, there is no moral truths. There is no absolute distinction between right and wrong within this way of thinking. Right and wrong can be decided by individuals or groups of people. Cultures decide what is right for themselves and their way of life. Even individuals have the ability to decide their own personal moral code. This can seem somewhat reasonable at times. Some things that were considered moral or immoral in the past are viewed differently today. Even with this understanding, Christians deny the idea of relativism. Christians hold to the belief that moral truths come from God. Therefore, these truths do not change. God himself never changes; therefore, his moral truths remain the same. According to Christian ethics, mankind is expected to hold to the moral absolutes mandated by God himself. This understanding is not compatible with relativism. Relativism makes no place of a God. From a relativistic point of view, mankind decides their own morality. Right and wrong are not fixed. In Christian ethics, right and wrong are permanently decided by the God of the universe.
The subjective aspects of Christian ethics can look similar to relativism. The areas that are somewhat subjective in Christian aspects are referred to as the liberties of a Christian. There are some matters that are not said to be morally wrong in the Bible. Some see these issues to be wrong; therefore, they are. Others do not find certain issues to be morally wrong. These individuals are claiming their Christian liberty. One of these issues is drinking alcohol. Some Christians believe that ingesting any amount of alcohol is morally wrong. According to the idea of Christian liberty, it would be wrong for the individuals who hold to this belief to drink alcohol. Others do not have this conviction and are not doing wrong by consuming alcohol. On the surface, the idea of Christian liberty can seem to be related to relativism, but upon closer inspection these ideas are not closely related. Christian liberty is a Biblical concept that harmonize well with the overall message of the Bible. Relativism is nowhere found in the Bible. The Bible is clear that there are universal moral laws. These laws are placed upon humanity by God himself. There are some areas where the Bible remain.
Christian Ethics BA 616 Business Ethics Definiti.docxtroutmanboris
Christian Ethics
BA 616 Business Ethics
Definition of Christian Ethics
A system of values based upon the Judeo/Christian Scriptures
Principles of behavior in concordance with the behaviors of Christian teachings
Standards of thought and behavior as taught by Jesus.
Discussion
What are some of the “ethical” attributes presented in the teachings of Jesus?
What are some ethical attributes presented in the teachings of other religious persons?
Quotes about Christian Ethics
Quotes on Christian Ethics
Recognize the value of work
“And when you reap the harvest of your land, you shall not reap your field right up to its edge, nor shall you gather the gleanings after your harvest. You shall leave them for the poor and for the sojourner: I am the Lord your God.” (Leviticus 23:22).
Do not give the poor the food, rather allow the poor to work for themselves
Discussion
What are examples of the value of work?
Today, some U.S. state governors are trying to get those “able bodied” individuals to work for welfare. They are meeting great resistance politically, why do you think this is?
The value of work
Confirmed by Elton Mayo
Fulfills social, psychological and economic needs of the individual
“If a man will not work, he shall not eat” (2 Thessalonians 3:10)
Christian Ethics
The fruit of a people that have inwardly committed their lives to Christ and are outwardly aligning their actions with His teachings.
“May the favor of the Lord our God rest on us; establish the work of our hands for us— yes, establish the work of our hands” (Psalms. 90:17).
Employees with a Christian Code of Ethics
Welcome accountability
Happy to show their efforts
A system of checks and balances
Sees possible training moment
Fosters collaboration with management
“Those who work their land will have abundant food, but those who chase fantasies have no sense” (Proverbs 12:11)
Employees with a Christian Code of Ethics
Not motivated by greed
Work is its own reward
Measure success in a non-monetary way
Seek payment for the work they do
Money is second to obedience
“Whatever you do, work at it with all your heart, as working for the Lord, not for human masters” (Colossians 3:23).
Employees with a Christian Code of Ethics
Are highly productive
Are work focused
Work hard throughout the day
Find value in completing assigned tasks
Understand that they are there to work
“Diligent hands will rule, but laziness ends in forced labor” (Proverbs 12:24).
Employees with a Christian Code of Ethics
Have a strong work ethic
Believe in a Biblical perspective of work
Reliable
Recognize the value of work
Relate their job to their faith
“All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty” (Proverbs 14:23)
Employees with a Christian Code of Ethics
Bring a cooperative spirit to the workplace
Supportive of management
Strong contribu.
CHPSI think you made a really good point that Howard lacks poli.docxtroutmanboris
CH/PS
I think you made a really good point that Howard lacks political aspects-especially for presidency. I have no heard his speeches quite yet (since I tend to stray away from politics altogether because people are so aggressive), do you think he is a great leader-type and is he charismatic at all? Great leaders, especially for presidency, should be honest, charismatic, and not only cater to the audience's needs but to the entire country's needs without sugar coating things.
Also, I am not sure what you mean by "In order to improve his leadership style, Jeff should change his model of carrying out business activities. This is because it can be copied and imitated by other companies (Mauri, 2016)".- how can it be imitted by other companies? In what way?
Do you think Jeff Bezos is a bad leader? and why?
CH/AR
I found your comparison of Howard Schultz and Jeff Bezos interesting and compelling. When I was looking at the list of leaders to select from, it was staggering to me how many of the corporate leaders have run or are planning to run for political office. I'm not sure, given our current political environment, that running a large corporation is the right background and experience for the leader of the United States. We'll see what happens in the next year and a half!
Amazon is an amazing, transformative company to watch. I work in the financial services industry and one of our leaders recently described our competition not as other financial services firms but as Amazon. Financial services firms pretty much all offer the same products and services and at a very reasonable price point. Amazon, however, has excelled in service delivery. I would imagine that at sometime in the future, Amazon will partner with a financial service firm to deliver products and services. I'll admit that I was and still am skeptical about Amazon's purchase of Whole Foods, but Bezos seems to be up for trying just about anything.
In your analysis of the two leaders, you didn't mention directly the challenges faced by either the leaders or the organization. Last year, Starbucks was all over the news regarding the incident involving two African American gentlemen and how they were treated by a manger at Starbucks. I'm curious how you or others in the class through about how Schultz led the organization through that crisis. Bezos, as well, has not been immune to controversy with his recent affair and divorce becoming public. How do the personal lives and behaviors of leader impact the organizations they lead? Should it matter?
SO
The first leader I chose to research is Sundar Pichai, the CEO of Google. Sundar began to show in interest in technology at an early age, and eventually earned a degree in Metallurgy, and an M.B.A from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He then began working at Google in 2004 as the head of product management and development (Shepherd). From there, he assisted in the development of many different departme.
Chosen brand CHANELStudents are required to research a fash.docxtroutmanboris
Chosen brand:
CHANEL
Students are required to research a fashion brand of their choice and analyze its positioning strategy in the market.
● The report will assess students’ ability to collect data, in an efficient manner and use this data to scrutinise the marketing aspects of a fashion brand.
● The report will be covering the following subjects:
1. Analysis Of The Macro And Micro-environment of the brand.
2. Positioning Strategy Of The Brand: Target Customer(Pen Portrait)
3. Competitor Analysis.
4. Critical evaluation of the marketing communications strategy of the brand
supporting the development of the individual report, using relevant PRIMARY and SECONDARY RESEARCH.
NB: Please kindly devise a survey (Google forms) and make up some responses to it so as to then incorporate PRIMARY results into the report. Thanks
see attached file
word count: 2000 words
.
Chose one person to reply to ALBORES 1. Were Manning’s acti.docxtroutmanboris
Chose one person to reply to:
ALBORES
1. Were Manning’s actions legal under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, and what are the possible penalties for violating the act?
The Foreign Corrupt Practices Act states (1977) “It shall be unlawful for any issuer...to offer, payment, promise to pay, or authorization of the payment of any money, or offer, gift, promise to give... “. Manning assumed the duty of an issuer because he attended dinner with the prime minister to discuss the contract. Then, Manning offered to fly the prime minister to New York, which he then promised to pay for all of the prime minister's expenses. However, according to the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (1977) a promise or offer is acceptable if the expense was ”reasonable and bona fide expenditure, such as travel and lodging expenses, incurred by or on behalf of a foreign official… was directly related to the promotion, demonstration, or explanation of products or services”. Manning promised to fly out the prime minister because he wanted to “discuss business further” (UMUC, 2019). Further, Manning used company funds to take the prime minister to luxurious activities and restaurants because he wanted to retain the contract from the prime minister.
Even though Manning did not directly give money to the prime minister, he authorized payment for the prime minster’s two-week stay, which did not involve discussing the contract. Out of the two weeks, business was only conducted for a day. In addition, Manning can be held responsible for bribing the customs officials at Neristan. According to the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (1977), it is unlawful to influence “any act or decision of such foreign official in his official capacity... omit to do any act in violation of the lawful duty of such official”. Manning influenced the customs officials because Manning gave each custom official $100 to clear the shipment. Custom officials act on behalf of the Neristan government and sometimes require large shipments to be inspected. Manny will likely be held responsible for offering payment to the customs officials in exchange for expediting the company’s shipment.
If Manning violated the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, he could face imprisonment. Also, the company may have to pay the penalty. The penalty for violating the act is “a fine of up to $2 million per violation. Likewise, an individual may face up to five years in prison and/or a fine of $250,000 per violation of the anti-bribery provision” (Woody, 2018, p. 275).
2. Were Manning’s actions legal under the UK Bribery Act and what are the possible penalties for violating the act?
Based on the UK Bribery Act (2010), an individual is guilty of bribing an official if “intention is to influence F (government official) in F's capacity as a foreign public official...intend to obtain or retain business, or an advantage in the conduct of business.”. Manning bribed the prime minister because he stated: “If, after we are done conducting busi.
Choosing your literary essay topic on Disgrace by J. M. Coetzee .docxtroutmanboris
Choosing your literary essay topic on
Disgrace
by J. M. Coetzee is the first step to writing your literary analysis paper.
After reading the novel, you should be able to decide in which direction you'd like to take your paper.
Topics/ approaches
(Focus on only one of the following, though some may overlap):
Analyze one of the minor characters, such as Petrus.
Example
: Analyze not only the chosen characters' personality but also what role they played in advancing the overall theme of the novel.
The protagonist's conflict, the hurdles to be overcome, and how he resolves it.
Examples:
It could be hope for change, both in South Africa and in David Lurie. OR: the disgrace David Lurie has suffered over the affair with a student and how that matches the disgrace South Africa has suffered through apartheid.
The function of setting to reinforce theme and characterization.
Example
: post-apartheid South Africa is a setting arguably more important than anything else in the novel. Your outside sources would be a bit of history concerning apartheid.The use of literary devices to communicate theme: imagery, metaphor, symbolism, foreshadowing, irony
Symbolism in the novel--
Examples:
Determine if David Lurie represents the old, white authorities of South Africa, while Lucy represents the new white people of South Africa. OR: Analyze what dogs symbolize in this story. Another example: What is symbolized by the opera David Lurie is writing on Byron?
Careful examination of one or more central scenes and its/their crucial role in plot development, resolution of conflict, and exposition of the theme.
Example:
Analyze one or more scenes in which hope that change for the better is possible through a character's remorse and subsequent action, for example, the scene in which David Lurie apologizes to the parents OR the scene in which Lucy gets raped.
The possible issue to be addressed in introduction or conclusion:
Characteristics that make the work typical (or atypical) of the period, the setting, or the author that produced it. For this information, you must go to a library database (you must read "How to Access Miami Dade Databases" if you don't know how) or a valid search site, such as Google Scholar (there is often a fee for this one).
Do
not
open or close with biographical material on the author. Biographical material is important as it influences the author’s writing only and should not be a focus of your paper.
Guidelines for Literary Essay
Be aware that you will be writing about a novel, which in its broadest sense is any extended fictional narrative almost always in prose, in which the representation of character is often the focus. Good authors use the elements of fiction, such as plot, theme, setting etc. purposefully, with a very clear goal in mind. One of the paths to literary analysis is to discover what the author's purpose is with each of his choices. Avoid the problem th.
Choosing your Philosophical Question The Final Project is an opp.docxtroutmanboris
Choosing your Philosophical Question
The Final Project is an opportunity for you to investigate one of the discussion questions to a much greater degree than in the forums. For your Final Project you will choose a philosophical question (stage 1), conduct an analysis of the claims and arguments relevant to the question by reading the primary texts of the philosopher (stage 2), and then take a position on the chosen question and offer an argument in support of your position (stage 3).
For this first stage of your Final Project assignment, (a) choose a question that appears as a discussion question (listed below, with some exceptions). You may choose one that you have previously begun to answer in the discussion forums, or one that you have yet to consider, then (b) explain briefly why you are interested in exploring this philosopher, the primary text and the question further. Submit this assignment on a Word .docx.
Week Four: Philosopher: Thomas Aquinas, Primary Text: Summa Theologica, Part 1, Question 2, Article 1-3
Q1. Does God really exist?
Question to write on, and answer the question fully in all its parts. Be mindful of the question. You are making a claim about something and offering support for it. Try to use examples from the Primary Texts you have read and/or your own experiences in that support.
DISCUSSION QUESTION CHOICE #1: Philosophy of Religion. Study Aquinas' five "ways" of demonstrating God's existence in the learning resources then engage in the study of ontology by examining your belief in God:
Answer the question: Does God really exist?
Use Aquinas and your own reasoning in your argument.
Kreeft, Peter. A Shorter Summa: The Essential Philosophical Passages of St. Thomas Aquinas'
Summa Theologica, Ignatius Press (San Francisco, 1993), chapter II.
Summa Theologica, Part 1, Question 2, Articles 1-3
The Existence of God
Because the chief aim of sacred doctrine is to teach the knowledge of God, not only as He is in
Himself, but also as He is the beginning of things and their last end, and especially of rational
creatures, as is clear from what has been already said, therefore, in our endeavor to expound this
science, we shall treat: (1) Of God; (2) Of the rational creature’s advance towards God; (3) Of
Christ, Who as man, is our way to God.
In treating of God there will be a threefold division: For we shall consider (1) Whatever concerns
the Divine Essence; (2) Whatever concerns the distinctions of Persons; (3) Whatever concerns the
procession of creatures from Him
Concerning the Divine Essence, we must consider: (1) Whether God exists? (2) The manner of His
existence, or, rather, what is not the manner of His existence; (3) Whatever concerns His
operations — namely, His knowledge, will, power.
Concerning the first, there are three points of inquiry: (1) Whether the proposition “God exists” is
self-evident? (2) Whether it is demonstrable? (3) Whether God exists?-
FIRST ARTICLE
Whether the Existence .
Choosing Your Research Method in a NutshellBy James Rice and.docxtroutmanboris
Choosing Your Research Method in a Nutshell
By James Rice and Marilyn K. Simon
Research Method Brief Type
Action research Participatory ‐ problem identification, solution,
solution review
III
Appreciative inquiry Helps groups identify solutions III, IV
Case Study research Group observation to determine how and why a
situation exists
III
Causal‐comparative research Identify causal relationship among variable that
can't be controlled
IV
Content analysis Analyze text and make inferences IV
Correlational research Collect data and determine level of correlation
between variables
I
Critical Incident technique Identification of determining incident of a critical
event
III
Delphi research Analysis of expert knowledge to forecast future
events
I, IV
Descriptive research Study of "as is" phenomena I
Design based research/ decision analysis Identify meaningful change in practices II
Ethnographic Cultural observation of a group
Evaluation research Study the effectiveness of an intervention or
program
IV
Experimental research Study the effect of manipulating a variable or
variables
II
Factor analysis Statistically assess the relationship between large
numbers of variables
I
Grounded Theory Produce a theory that explains a process based on
observation
III, IV
Hermeneutic research Study the meaning of subjects/texts (exegetics is
text only) by concentrating on the historical
meaning of the experience and its developmental
and cumulative effects on the individual and society
III
Historical research historical data collection and analysis of person or
organization
IV
Meta‐analysis research Seek patterns in data collected by other studies and
formulate principals
Narrative research Study of a single person's experiences
Needs assessment Systematic process of determine the needs of a
defined demographic population
Phenomenography Answer questions about thinking and learning
Phenomenology Make sense of lived experiences of participants
regarding a specified phenomenon.
III, IV
Quasi‐experimental Manipulation of variables in populations without
benefit of random assignment or control group.
II
Q‐method A mixed‐method approach to study subjectivity ‐
patterns of thought
I
Regression‐discontinuity design (RD) Cut‐off score assignment of participants to group
(non‐random) used to study effectiveness of an
intervention
II
Repertory grid analysis Interview process to determine how a person
interprets the meaning of an experience
I
Retrospective record review Study of historic data collected about a prior
intervention (both effected and control group)
II
Semiology Studies the meaning of symbols II, III
Situational analysis Post‐modernist approach to grounded theory
(holistic view rather than isolated variables) by
studying lived experiences around a phenomenon
Trend Analysis research Formulate a f.
Choose two of the systems (education, work, the military, and im.docxtroutmanboris
Choose
two
of the systems (education, work, the military, and immigration). Explain how they fit into the domain of social work and the social justice issues social workers should be aware of in these systems.
How does the education, military, workplace, or immigration system rely on social workers?
What is one social justice issue found in education, the military, the workplace, or immigration that influences the practice of social work?
.
Choose two disorders from the categories presented this week.C.docxtroutmanboris
Choose
two disorders from the categories presented this week.
Create
a 15- to 20-slide Microsoft® PowerPoint® presentation that includes the following:
Describes the disorders and explains their differences
Discusses how these disorders are influenced by the legal system
Discusses how the legal system is influenced by these disorders
Include
a minimum of two peer-reviewed sources.
Format
your presentation consistent with APA guidelines.
Submit
your assignment.
*3 slides on How is the legal system influenced by schizophrenia with speaker notes*
.
Choose ONE of the following topics Length 750-900 words, .docxtroutmanboris
Choose
ONE
of the following topics
Length:
750-900 words, double spaced, 12 pt. font
Identify the different forms of religious groups that are comprised in the typology outlined by the classic sociologists of religion. Explain the basic characteristics of each and provide examples.
Establish a distinction between the popular misuses of the term "myth" and its meaning in the scholarly context of Religious Studies. Explain the functions of myth according to the scholar Joseph Campbell.
.
Choose one of the following topicsAmerica A Narrative.docxtroutmanboris
Choose
one
of the following topics
America: A Narrative History
notes Thomas Jefferson's election to the presidency set the tone of "republican simplicity". In what ways was this still true in 1850 following the "Market Revolution" and in what ways was it not?
Connect the technological improvements in water transportation of the early 19th century to the territory acquired in the LA Purchase.
.
Choose one of the following topics below. Comparecont.docxtroutmanboris
Choose
one
of the following topics below.
Compare/contrast the role women played in Puritan Society in colonial Massachusetts with their role in the Great Awakening of the 18th century.
Why is the Declaration of Independence considered historically as a product of the Age of Enlightenment?
500 words
.
Choose one of the following topics below. Comparecon.docxtroutmanboris
Choose
one
of the following topics below.
Compare/contrast the role women played in Puritan Society in colonial Massachusetts with their role in the Great Awakening of the 18th century.
Why is the Declaration of Independence considered historically as a product of the Age of Enlightenment?
requirement of this assignment
Write a 500 word essay
.
Choose one of the states of RacialCultural Identity Development.docxtroutmanboris
Choose one of the states of Racial/Cultural Identity Developmental Model and reflect on how you will intervine with a client in that stage.
Stages:
Conformity
Dissonance and Appreciating
Resistance and immersion
Introspection
Integrative Awareness
.
Choose one of the following topicsNative AmericansWomenEnvi.docxtroutmanboris
Choose
one of the following topics:
Native Americans
Women
Environment
Latin Americans
Sexual liberation
Read
at least three different newspaper articles between 1968 and 1980 that cover important changes affecting your topic. In the University Library, use the ProQuest
®
historical newspaper archive (available under
General Resources > ProQuest >
Advanced Search
>
Search Options
>
Source Type
), which includes the following major newspapers, among others:
New York Times
Washington Post
Wall Street Journal
Los Angeles Times
Christian Science Monitor
Write
a 700- to 1,050-word paper in which you describe the status of the chosen group or idea and how that group or idea was affected by the changes brought about during the 1960s. Include information gleaned from the newspaper articles as well as other material.
.
Choose one of the following films for review (with faculty’s appro.docxtroutmanboris
Choose
one of the following films for review (with faculty’s approval). Put yourself in the movie by choosing one character to follow. What cultural issues would you face? What are cultural challenges? Write a short paper describing the film and your observations. Present your findings in class.
•
Secret Lives of Bees
•
Chocolate
•
Under the Same Moon
•
Maid in Manhattan
•
Walk in the Clouds
•
Get Rich or Die Trying (Gang Culture
) "I like this one"
•
Mu
lan
•
Mississippi Burning
•
A Time to Kill - "
I Also like this one
"
•
Only Fools Rush In
.
Choose and complete one of the two assignment options.docxtroutmanboris
Choose
and
complete
one of the two assignment options:
Option 1: Forecasting Comparison Presentation
Identify
a state, local, or federal policy that impacts your organization or community.
Create
an 8- to 10-slide Microsoft® PowerPoint® presentation in which you complete the following:
Describe how forecasting can be used to implement this policy and highlight any limitations of the usage of forecasting.
Compare and contrast the different forms of forecasting used to aid decision-makers when evaluating policy outcomes.
Discuss the types of information needed to ensure forecasts are accurate.
Analyze the relationship between forecasting, monitoring of observed policy outcomes, and normative futures in goals and agenda setting.
Include
speaker notes with each slide. The presentation should also contain and at least four peer-reviewed references from the University Library.
I live in Lawrence, KS if you can find a policy within this community.
.
We all have good and bad thoughts from time to time and situation to situation. We are bombarded daily with spiraling thoughts(both negative and positive) creating all-consuming feel , making us difficult to manage with associated suffering. Good thoughts are like our Mob Signal (Positive thought) amidst noise(negative thought) in the atmosphere. Negative thoughts like noise outweigh positive thoughts. These thoughts often create unwanted confusion, trouble, stress and frustration in our mind as well as chaos in our physical world. Negative thoughts are also known as “distorted thinking”.
2024.06.01 Introducing a competency framework for languag learning materials ...Sandy Millin
http://sandymillin.wordpress.com/iateflwebinar2024
Published classroom materials form the basis of syllabuses, drive teacher professional development, and have a potentially huge influence on learners, teachers and education systems. All teachers also create their own materials, whether a few sentences on a blackboard, a highly-structured fully-realised online course, or anything in between. Despite this, the knowledge and skills needed to create effective language learning materials are rarely part of teacher training, and are mostly learnt by trial and error.
Knowledge and skills frameworks, generally called competency frameworks, for ELT teachers, trainers and managers have existed for a few years now. However, until I created one for my MA dissertation, there wasn’t one drawing together what we need to know and do to be able to effectively produce language learning materials.
This webinar will introduce you to my framework, highlighting the key competencies I identified from my research. It will also show how anybody involved in language teaching (any language, not just English!), teacher training, managing schools or developing language learning materials can benefit from using the framework.
How to Split Bills in the Odoo 17 POS ModuleCeline George
Bills have a main role in point of sale procedure. It will help to track sales, handling payments and giving receipts to customers. Bill splitting also has an important role in POS. For example, If some friends come together for dinner and if they want to divide the bill then it is possible by POS bill splitting. This slide will show how to split bills in odoo 17 POS.
Power-sharing Class 10 is a vital aspect of democratic governance. It refers to the distribution of power among different organs of government, levels of government, and social groups. This ensures that no single entity can control all aspects of governance, promoting stability and unity in a diverse society.
For more information, visit-www.vavaclasses.com
Students, digital devices and success - Andreas Schleicher - 27 May 2024..pptxEduSkills OECD
Andreas Schleicher presents at the OECD webinar ‘Digital devices in schools: detrimental distraction or secret to success?’ on 27 May 2024. The presentation was based on findings from PISA 2022 results and the webinar helped launch the PISA in Focus ‘Managing screen time: How to protect and equip students against distraction’ https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/managing-screen-time_7c225af4-en and the OECD Education Policy Perspective ‘Students, digital devices and success’ can be found here - https://oe.cd/il/5yV
Unit 8 - Information and Communication Technology (Paper I).pdfThiyagu K
This slides describes the basic concepts of ICT, basics of Email, Emerging Technology and Digital Initiatives in Education. This presentations aligns with the UGC Paper I syllabus.
Palestine last event orientationfvgnh .pptxRaedMohamed3
An EFL lesson about the current events in Palestine. It is intended to be for intermediate students who wish to increase their listening skills through a short lesson in power point.
74. au
di
en
ce
[email protected]
6 Features and Added Value of Simulation Models Using
Different Modelling. . . 117
The main advantage of system dynamics models is that they are
fast to run and
technologically not demanding while providing useful
information about the real-
world processes and insights into possible impacts of different
macro-level policies.
However, these models face a number of restrictions. For
example, VirSim initially
assumes infection probabilities where elderly people (age group
60 and more) have
considerably fewer chances of being infected with influenza
compared to the other
two age groups (Fasth et al. 2010). However, the SEIR model
that was applied
cannot predict this and cannot explain why this occurs. The
authors of VirSim used
this result from the micro-simulation model MicroSim and
assumed this phenomenon
happens because of less social contacts of elderly people or
some prior immunity.
VirSim cannot explain this phenomenon because system
dynamics does not include
75. modelling of various social interactions and other similar
dependencies between
actors since all variables are averaged over particular groups or
the population in
general - in the case of VirSim within the members of a
particular age group. Apart
from the categories of people based on their age, VirSim cannot
identify fine-grain
groups that have higher probability to be infected. For example,
a student has more
chances to be exposed and therefore infected than a researcher
working in the same
university but more in the closed environment of an office while
students usually
have more frequent social interactions among their groups and
communities. It is
important to identify closed environments that have high risk of
spreading influenza,
for example boarding and nursing homes. From the policy
modelling point of view, it
is important to identify high-risk groups to start the vaccination
from there. One could
define refined categories of actors by defining more variables,
but in general, it would
not be possible to represent relations between subcategories,
such as taxonomies or
ontologies needed to represent social contacts or interactions
among actors, due to
the lack of representation apparatus in system dynamics models.
As Gilbert and Troitzsch argue, due to social complexity and
non-linearity, it
is difficult to describe processes and systems analytically. To be
able to examine
interactions between simulation units, other modelling
techniques such as ABM or
76. micro-simulation models need to be applied for exploring the
social heterogeneity
and structures (Gilbert and Troitzsch 2005).
Micro-simulation models, usually based on a weighted sum of a
representative
sample of the population, consider characteristics of individuals
and are able to re-
produce social reality (Martini and Trivellato 1997). They are
beneficial in predicting
both, short-term as well as long-term impact of policies (Gilbert
and Troitzsch 2005).
However, micro-simulation models are costly to build and
complex, especially at the
level of data analysis requirements. In the case of MicroSim,
the Swedish population
of approximately nine million people was modelled in many
details (Brouwers et al.
2009). In addition, in ‘simple’ cases, especially in
demographics, a micro-simulation
model produces similar results as a system dynamics-based
model (Gilbert and
Troitzsch, 2005). This proved true in the case of MicroSim and
VirSim: The lat-
ter confirmed the results of the former, although with a greater
difference between
vaccination and non-vaccination results (The National Board of
Health and Wel-
fare 2011). According to Spielauer, micro-simulation is best to
use when population
heterogeneity matters; when there are too many possible
combinations to split the
[email protected]
77. 118 D. Majstorovic et al.
population into a manageable number of groups; in situations
when the micro level
explains complex macro-behaviours, or when individual history
is important for the
model’s outcomes (Spielauer 2011).
Although agent-based models lack clear predictive possibilities,
they are consid-
ered a highly valuable tool for describing and explaining
complex social interactions
and behaviours, contributing to the understanding of real-world
social systems and to
a better management of different social processes. Schindler
argues that agent-based
simulations are capable of representing real-world systems,
where small changes in
parameter values induce big changes in the model’s outputs.
This property shifts
attention from the importance of predictions of the system’s
future behaviour to
the management of critical (social) processes responsible for the
changes. However,
agent-based simulations alone are not sufficient to model
reality. Another possi-
ble problem is a high degree of freedom in modelling agents,
which amplifies the
importance of a proper validation of a simulation model
(Schindler 2013).
While agent-based and micro-simulation models would be able
to show that an
elderly person has less infection probability, it is questionable
whether they would
78. be able to answer why an elderly person is less infected by
influenza. Knowing
‘why’ can help in building a successful strategy for protection
against the disease.
It might happen that hidden variables and parameters influence
this age group. For
this reason, in order to model correct probabilities for different
age groups, several
authors suggest that uncertainty models, such as (dynamic)
Bayesian models or
Markov chains could be used. In addition, if the past should be
also considered (for
example, a person has less chances to be infected now because
he/she was infected
in the recent past), then we have to use more complex
probability models, such
as the Dempster–Shafer model (Ronald and Halpern 1991,
Jameson 1996). Gilbert
and Troitzsch argue that statistical models can also be used to
predict values of
some dependent variables. However, statistical models assume
linear relationships
between parameters, which becomes a restrictive assumption in
the case of (complex)
social systems (Gilbert and Troitzsch 2005).
Comparing the three different paradigms of social and policy
modelling explored
in this chapter, the three approaches can be examined according
to the level of gran-
ularity they are focussing on, the complexity of the models, the
demand for the
amount of data needed to generate a valuable simulation model
and whether social
behaviour is modelled. Table 6.8 provides this comparison,
which is adapted from
79. (Gilbert and Troitzsch 2005). Micro-simulation models
represent particular ontolo-
gies of the population or its representative subset based on
individuals and are most
demanding regarding data needed for developing a model.
Agent-based models are
less data demanding, less complex and well suited for
representing groups of actors
(which can represent individuals, groups as well as a system as
a whole) and their
social behaviour. ABM is the only one of the three paradigms
studied which models
social behaviour. However, social behaviour cannot be the only
source for policy-
making (Gilbert and Troitzsch 2005) Macro-models, in this
chapter represented by
system dynamics, are the least demanding—they model a
situation at a global level
and require the least data. Nevertheless, they are better for the
analysis of short-term
policy impacts than for longer-term perspectives (Astolfi et al.
2012).
[email protected]
6 Features and Added Value of Simulation Models Using
Different Modelling. . . 119
Table 6.8 Comparison of simulation modelling theories along
level of granularity, the complexity
of the models, the amount of data needed to generate simulation
models, and the modelling of social
behaviour of agents
80. Simulation
paradigm
Granularity Complexity Data needed Behavioural
System dynamics Macro-focusing on the
system as a whole
Low Aggregated data No
Micro-simulation Micro-focusing on
individuals
High High amount at
individual level
No
Agent-based
modelling
Micro-macro—
focusing on interaction
of agents (which can
be individuals as well
as a system)
Medium-high Low to moderate
(depending on
the number of
agents and the
policy context)
Yes
The analysis of three different modelling paradigms with the
81. comparison of five
different simulation models has shown that each of the
modelling approaches has
strengths and weaknesses that constrain their usage in policy-
making. For example,
micro-simulation can be used for representing social structures
while ABM examines
interactions between the agents. Astolfi et al argue that none of
the theories alone is
able to address complex policy interactions (Astolfi et al.
2012). In consequence, a
necessary step in the development of simulation modelling is to
build and explore
ways of maintaining complex simulation models consisting of a
few sub-models
built on different modelling theories, which communicate with
each other by set-
ting up and propagating particular parameters after each
reasoning iteration (Astolfi
et al. 2012). These hybrid models can be considered as
modelling platforms or com-
plex systems consisting of sub-models. Yet, it is necessary to
study methodologies
and possibilities of combining different modelling paradigms in
order to provide
reliable simulation platforms. Current research indicates this
trend, as an example
of micro-macro combination in a Chronic Disease Prevention
Model developed in
Australia shows (Brown et al. 2009). However, more research is
needed to better
understand the implications of combined modelling paradigms,
to develop innova-
tive simulation platforms that support easy adjustment and
development of different
models based on different modelling paradigms and to bring
82. evangelists of particular
modelling paradigms closer to each other to support mutual
understanding and the
exploration of the added value and benefits of particular
simulation models. Further
recommendations and indications of research needs include, but
are not exhaustively
listed:
• Providing guidelines for how to best choose and arrange a
collection of smaller
(sub) models each describing certain aspects of a given domain
of modelling;
• Finding the junction points of those models of distinct
modelling paradigms with
each other by defining input and output parameters for each of
the sub-models;
• Developing meta-models that reflect the combinatory use of
distinct modelling
approaches;
[email protected]
120 D. Majstorovic et al.
• Determining the workflow of a simulation process by means
of, e.g. a sequence
and timing of exchanging the input and output parameters
between sub-models
in a combined hybrid meta-model;
• Exploring more extensive engagement of stakeholders in the
83. policy development9;
• Developing more comprehensive simulation platforms that
enable the combina-
tion of different simulation paradigms in an easy way.
6.5 Conclusions
In this chapter, we have examined and compared five different
simulation mod-
els, which were built on three different modelling paradigms:
system dynamics,
micro-simulation, and ABM. The chapter first provided an
overview of the main char-
acteristics of each of the modelling paradigms and then
described the five simulation
models by outlining them according to a framework elaborated
by eGovPoliNet for
comparative analysis of knowledge assets. The simulation
models are each suitable
for representing different aspects of socio-political and/or
socio-economic phenom-
ena, such as demographic processes (education, social contacts,
spread of diseases,
etc.), innovation processes or natural resource consumptions
(e.g. energy consump-
tion). The comparison has revealed the major differences as
well as added value and
limitations of the different approaches and simulation models.
Some lessons from the
comparative analysis are that the main strengths of using
simulation models in policy-
making are the possibilities of exploring and creating
understanding of real-world
systems and relationships, of experimenting with new situations
and of forecasting
84. outputs of alternative policy options or situations based on the
given values of pa-
rameters. Another key added value of simulation models in
policy-making is that
simulation models enable the exploration of social processes to
evaluate potential
impacts of alternative policy options on real-world situations
and thus to identify the
most suitable policy option.
Current paradigms of policy modelling using simulation models
are however
constrained by their particular focus. Yet, our real-world
systems and social processes
are complex and require the consideration of parameters at
different levels: macro-
level, micro-level as well as social behaviour and
interconnections between actors.
Accordingly, applying one singular approach to modelling a
real-world problem is
constrained by the particular modelling approach it focuses on:
A simulation model
of system dynamics may therefore lack precision and social
interactions because the
missing factors are not accounted for. While the demand for
meeting the appropriate
level of details included in a model’s description, being not too
complex and also
not too simple, determines the success of a simulation model,
there is a rising need
for integrating and combining different modelling paradigms to
accommodate the
diverse aspects to be considered in complex social world policy
contexts. Unifying
9 A more detailed discussion of stakeholder engagement in
85. policy making is given in (Helbig et al.
2014).
[email protected]
6 Features and Added Value of Simulation Models Using
Different Modelling. . . 121
different modelling theories under an umbrella of
comprehensive policy modelling
platforms is a research need identified in this chapter. Such
research should put
forward a meta-model of how individual simulation paradigms
can be combined, and
suggestions of ‘clever’junctions of individual smaller (and self-
contained) simulation
models dedicated to individual aspects to be modelled.
While this chapter selected three widely used simulation
paradigms for the study, it
does not claim to be exhaustive nor comprehensive. Further
research is needed to ex-
tend the study to involve other important modelling approaches
such as theory-based
macro-economic forecasting for instance Dynamic Stochastic
General Equilibrium
(DSGE) modelling. DSGE is exemplified by the Global
Economy Model (GEM)
which provides support in policy analysis to central banks and
the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) (Bayoumi 2004). This will further add to
understanding the
scope and limitations of different modelling paradigms, as for
example Farmer and
86. Foley argue, too, that instead of DSGE models, agent-based
models should be used
to model the world economy (Farmer and Foley 2009). Thus, the
authors of this
chapter recognise the need to continue comparative analysis as
carried out in this
contribution and to expand the research to incorporate further
modelling paradigms
as well as other public policy domains. Insights gained will help
build up better
hybrid models of social simulation paradigms that are better
able to cope with the
complexity of our social and dynamic world systems and that
are more reliable as
they are covering the various social, policy and economic
aspects at various levels
of abstraction and giving consideration in a more
comprehensive way. Accordingly,
better social simulation modelling platforms will emerge.
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[email protected]
Chapter 7
A Comparative Analysis of Tools and
Technologies for Policy Making
Eleni Kamateri, Eleni Panopoulou, Efthimios Tambouris,
Konstantinos Tarabanis, Adegboyega Ojo, Deirdre Lee and
David Price
Abstract Latest advancements in information and
95. communication technologies of-
fer great opportunities for modernising policy making, i.e.
increasing its efficiency,
bringing it closer to all relevant actors, and enhancing its
transparency and acceptance
levels. In this context, this chapter aims to present, analyse, and
discuss emerging
information and communication technologies (ICT) tools and
technologies present-
ing the potential to enhance policy making. The methodological
approach includes
the searching and identification of relevant tools and
technologies, their system-
atic analysis and categorisation, and finally a discussion of
potential usage and
recommendations for enhancing policy making.
E. Kamateri (�) · E. Panopoulou · E. Tambouris · K. Tarabanis
Information Technologies Institute, Centre for Research &
Technology—Hellas,
Thessaloniki, Greece
e-mail: [email protected]
E. Panopoulou
e-mail: [email protected]
E. Tambouris · K. Tarabanis
University of Macedonia, Thessaloniki, Greece
e-mail: [email protected], [email protected]
K. Tarabanis
e-mail: [email protected], [email protected]
A. Ojo · D. Lee
INSIGHT Centre for Data Analytics, NUIG, Galway, Ireland
e-mail: [email protected]
D. Lee
e-mail: [email protected]
D. Price
Thoughtgraph Ltd, Somerset, UK
97. for many years. However, the current ICT advancements and
good practices of-
fer even greater opportunities for modernising policy making,
i.e. increasing its
efficiency, bringing it closer to all relevant actors and
increasing participation, facil-
itating its internal processes (e.g. decision making), and
enhancing its transparency
and acceptance levels.
In this context, this chapter aims to present, analyse, and
discuss emerging ICT
tools and technologies presenting the potential to enhance
policy making. Our ap-
proach includes searching and identification of relevant tools
and technologies, their
systematic analysis and categorisation, and finally a discussion
of potential usage
and recommendations for enhancing policy making. The chapter
is structured in the
following way: Sect. 7.2 describes our methodological
approach, Sect. 7.3 provides
the comparative analysis, and Sect. 7.4 discusses the findings
and concludes the
chapter.
Before proceeding to the rest of the chapter, we should provide
further clarifica-
tions with regard to its scope. First, for work presented in this
chapter, policy making
is considered as a broad and continuous process that commences
from the need to
create a policy and ends when a policy is abandoned or
replaced. In this context, the
policy-making process is usually described with a circular-
staged model called “the
98. policy cycle”. There are differences in the number, names, and
boundaries of the
stages adopted in each proposed policy cycle (e.g. Jann and
Wegrich 2006; Northern
Ireland Government 2013); however, every policy cycle
includes an initiation stage,
a drafting stage, an implementation stage, and an evaluation
stage. The scope of our
work refers to all these stages of the policy cycle.
Second, we consider all stakeholders relevant to policy making
within the scope
of work presented in this chapter. Obviously, the main actor
involved in policy
making is the government with its different roles, bodies, and
institutions. However,
noninstitutional actors are also involved such as political
parties, political consultants
and lobbyists, the media, nongovernmental organisations, civil
organisations, and
other interested parties depending also on the policy topic at
hand. Last but not least,
individual citizens are also actors of policy making; as the final
policy recipients
and beneficiaries, they should actively participate in policy
making. Hence, in this
[email protected]
7 A Comparative Analysis of Tools and Technologies for Policy
Making 127
chapter, we do not consider policy making as a close, internal
government process,
99. but rather as an open, deliberative process relevant to the whole
society.
7.2 Methodology
In order to analyse the existing ICT tools and technologies that
can be used to enhance
the policy-making process, we adopted a simple methodology
consisting of four main
steps.
Before introducing the adopted methodology, we provide a short
description with
regard to the difference between ICT tools and technologies.
ICT tools normally in-
clude software applications, web-based environments, and
devices that facilitate the
way we work, communicate, and solve problems. These are
developed by individual
software developers, big software providers, researchers, and
scientists (Phang and
Kankanhalli 2008). Technology, on the other hand, refers to
knowledge and know-
how, skills, processes, tools and/or practices.1 Therefore,
technology not only refers
to tools but also the way we employ them to build new things.
In the current survey,
we organise the findings of our literature analysis based on tool
categories.
Step 1: Identification During this step, we surveyed the current
state of the art to
identify ICT tools and technologies that have been (or have a
clear potential to be)
used to reinforce the policy-making process. These tools have
been collected mainly
100. from project deliverables, posts, electronic articles, conference
papers, scientific
journals, and own contacts and expertise.
In particular, we searched for tools and technologies that have
been highlighted,
used, or created by existing research and coordination projects
in the area of
e-government and policy modelling, i.e. CROSSOVER2, e-
Policy3, FuturICT4,
OCOPOMO5, COCKPIT6 and UbiPol7, OurSpace8,
PuzzledbyPolicy9, etc. This
investigation resulted in a collection of more than 30 ICT tools
and technolo-
gies mainly coming from project deliverables, posts, electronic
articles, conference
papers, scientific journals, and own contacts and expertise.
Thereafter, we expanded our research on the web to include
additional tools that
were not previously identified. To this end, we tried multiple
searches in the major
research databases of computer science, e.g. Association for
Computing Machin-
ery (ACM) Digital Library and Google Scholar using a
combination of different
1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology.
2 http://crossover-project.eu.
3 http://www.epolicy-project.eu/node.
4 http://www.futurict.eu.
5 http://www.ocopomo.eu.
6 http://www.cockpit-project.eu.
7 http://www.ubipol.eu/.
8 http://www.ep-ourspace.eu/.
9 http://www.puzzledbypolicy.eu/.
101. [email protected]nl
128 E. Kamateri et al.
keywords such as tools, technologies, policy modelling, online
participation, en-
gagement, government, policy making, decision making, policy
formulation, etc.
The references of the selected papers were checked and
additional papers were
found. Some of the journals that have been reviewed include
Government Infor-
mation Quarterly, International Journal of Electronic
Government Research. In
addition, we surveyed similar initiatives that summarise tools
or/and methods, i.e.
the Participation Compass10 launched by Involve11 (not-for-
profit organisation in
public participation), the ParticipateDB12 by Intellitics13, and
the ReformCompass
by Bertelsmann Stiftung14 (providers of digital engagement
solutions). The final
result of this exercise was a list of 75 tools and technologies.
Step 2: Categorisation Analysing the identified tools and
technologies, it was ev-
ident that most of them fall under a number of categories. We
defined, therefore,
11 categories of tools and technologies for policy making. Each
category has a spe-
cific application focus, e.g. opinion mining, serious games, etc.,
and may be further
divided into one or more subcategories.
102. We then organised tools and technologies’ analysis according to
the defined cate-
gories. There are few cases, however, where the same tool could
be classified under
more than one category, i.e. in the case of visualisation and
argumentation tools and
in the case of serious games and simulation tools. In the first
case, argumentation
tools represent and structure arguments and debates, and usually
exploit visual means
in order to clearly represent the arguments. However, the main
focus remains the
representation of arguments. On the other hand, the
visualisation tools present, in a
graphical form, any type of input data. Thus, it was selected for
the sake of simplicity
to analyse each tool in one category according to its most
prominent feature. Similar
difficulties in categorisation have also arisen in the case of
simulation tools and seri-
ous games. Serious games are created for educational and
entertainment purposes, or
for helping citizens to further understand some processes by
playing the role of a key
stakeholder. On the other hand, simulation tools are usually
created on a more serious
context (e.g. within a research project, taking into account
accurate real-world data)
in order to help real policy makers or governments to simulate
long-term impacts of
their actions. Therefore, the categorisation of tools in these two
categories was made
based on the context and the goal of the tool.
Step 3: Comparative Analysis A comparative analysis of
103. identified ICT tools and
technologies per category was then performed. Initially, we
analysed tools’ function-
ality to identify core capabilities per category. Then, we
examined the key features
for each tool. The outcome of this analysis is a comparative
table for each category
10 http://participationcompass.org/.
11 http://www.involve.org.uk.
12 http://participatedb.com/.
13 http://www.intellitics.com/.
14 http://www.reformkompass.de.
[email protected]
7 A Comparative Analysis of Tools and Technologies for Policy
Making 129
that shows, at a glance, an overview of different features found
in each tool of the
category.
Step 4: Conceptualisation During this step, we performed an
overall discussion
of the presented tools and technologies and their potential for
enhancing policy
making. To this end, we examined three main aspects for policy
making—the type
of facilitated activities, the type of targeted stakeholders, and
the stages of the policy
cycle. Finally, we drafted overall recommendations and
conclusions.
104. 7.3 Tools and Technologies for Policy Making
Based on the literature survey, we identified 11 main categories
of ICT tools and
technologies that can be used for policy making purposes as
follows:
• Visualisation tools help users better understand data and
provide a more
meaningful view in context, especially by presenting data in a
graphical form.
• Argumentation tools visualise the structure of complex
argumentations and
debates as a graphical network.
• eParticipation tools support the active engagement of citizens
in social and
political processes including, e.g. voting advice applications
and deliberation
tools.
• Opinion mining tools help analyse and make sense of
thousands of public
comments written in different application contexts.
• Simulation tools represent a real-world system or phenomenon
and help users
understand the system and the effects of potential actions in
order to make better
decisions.
• Serious games train users through simulation and virtual
environments.
• Tools specifically developed for policy makers have been
recently developed to
105. facilitate the design and delivery of policies.
• Persuasive tools aim to change users’ attitudes or behaviours.
• Social network analysis (SNA) tools analyse social
connections and identify
patterns that can be used to predict users’ behaviour.
• Big data analytics tools support the entire big data
exploitation process from
discovering and preparing data sources, to integration,
visualisation, analysis,
and prediction.
• Semantics and linked data tools enable large amounts of data
to become easily
published, linked to other external datasets, and analysed.
We present an analysis of each category of tools and
technologies in the rest of this
section.15
15 All tools mentioned in this section are summarized in the end
of the chapter along with their
links.
[email protected]
130 E. Kamateri et al.
7.3.1 Visualisation Tools
Visualisation tools enable large amounts of “raw” data to
become visually represented
106. in an interpretable form. Moreover, they provide appropriate
means to uncover pat-
terns, relationships, and observations that would not be apparent
from looking at it
in a nonvisual format. Therefore, users can explore, analyse,
and make sense of data
that, otherwise, may be of limited value (Osimo and Mureddu
2012). Today, there are
many data visualisation tools, desktop- or web-based, free or
proprietary, that can be
used to visualise and analyse raw data provided by the user.
Examples include Google
Charts, Visokio Omniscope, R, and Visualize Free. Besides
visual presentation and
exploration of raw data, they provide additional features such as
data annotation (e.g.
Visokio Omniscope), data handling, and other statistical
computations on raw data
(e.g. R).
Over recent years, geovisualisation (shortened form of the term
geographic vi-
sualisation) has gained considerable momentum within the
fields of geographic
information systems (GIS), cartography, and spatial statistics.
Some consider it to
be a branch of data visualisation (Chang 2010). However,
geovisualisation inte-
grates different approaches including data visualisation, such as
cartography, GIS,
image analysis, exploratory data analysis, and dynamic
animations, to provide visual
exploration, analysis, synthesis, and presentation of geospatial
data (MacEachren
and Kraak 2001). Geovisualisation tools have been widely used
to visualise societal
107. statistics in combination with geographic data.
Several visualisation and geovisualisation tools have been
developed to visualise
and analyse demographic and social statistics in several
countries across the world.
Most tools are used for data coming from the USA. However,
many efforts have been
made, lately, to visualise statistics coming from all over the
world (e.g. Google Public
Data Explorer and World Bank eAtlas). The most important
source of information
for these tools is governmental reports which are made available
by each state.
Most tools support data transparency, mainly for downloading
data and figures,
while uploading of users’ data is available only in few cases.
Visualisation tools are
organised into static and interactive based on a categorisation
proposed for web-
mapping tools (Kraak and Brown 2001). A static tool contains a
figure or a map
displayed as a static image (Mitchell 2005), while interactive
tools allow users to
access a set of functions to have some interaction with the tool
or the map, such as
zooming in and out (Mitchell 2005). Table 7.1 summarises well-
known visualisation
and geovisualisation tools and compares their main
characteristics. In particular,
the table provides information on: (a) the number and subject of
indicators, e.g. if
they deal with demographic, health, environmental, or other
social issues, (b) the
coverage, namely, the countries supported, (c) the period for
which statistics are
108. available, (d) data transparency, and (e) whether it is a static or
interactive tool.
[email protected]
7 A Comparative Analysis of Tools and Technologies for Policy
Making 131
Table 7.1 Visualisation and geovisualisation tools for analyzing
regional statistics
Indicators and
Topic
Coverage
(countries)
Period Data
transparency
Static/
Interactive
Gapminder > 400
Demographics,
social,
economic, en-
vironmental,
health
> 200 Over the past
200 years
Download
109. and upload
Interactive
Worldmapper ∼ 696 maps
Demographics
All N/A Download
(No custom
maps)
Datasets,
static
Dynamic
Choropleth
Maps
Multiple
social,
economic,
and environ-
mental
USA N/A Download
(free to adjust
the threshold
criteria)
Interactive
DataPlace ∼ 2360
Demographics,
health, arts,
real estate
110. USA After 1990 N/A Interactive
Data
Visualizer-
World
Bank
∼ 49
Social,
economic,
financial, IT,
and environ-
mental
209 1960–2007 N/A Interactive
World Bank
eAtlas
∼ 175
Development
challenges
200 After 1960 Download
and upload
Interactive
State
Cancer
Profiles
Demographic
data related to
cancer
111. USA 2006–2010 N/A Interactive
Health
Infoscape
Health
conditions
USA January 2005–
July 2010
N/A Interactive
OECD
eXplorer
∼ 40
Demographics,
economic,
labour
market,
environment,
social, and
innovation
34
(335 large
regions
1679 small
regions)
1990–2005 Download
and upload
Interactive
(time
112. animation)
storytelling
Other tools investigated, but not included, in the above table
include STATcompiler, Google
Public Data Explorer, NComVA, Social Explorer (USA),
PolicyMap (USA), All-Island Research
Observatory (UK), and China Geo-Explorer II
[email protected]
132 E. Kamateri et al.
Demographic, social, environmental, health, and other public
data, provided by
governmental and public authorities, in raw form, can be
transformed and presented
through visualisation and geovisualisation tools into a more
interpretable way. Thus,
information and current trends hidden in this data can easily
become apparent. This
can assist policy stakeholders and decision makers to make
more informed decisions.
In addition, incorporating geographical knowledge into planning
and formation of
social and political policies can help derive more accurate
spatial decisions. Obvious
fields where visualisation and geovisualisation tools can be
applied for policy making
are investment, population, housing, environmental assessment,
public health, etc.
7.3.2 Argumentation Tools
113. Argumentation tools visualise the structure of complex
arguments and debates as a
graphical network. In particular, they allow a large number of
stakeholders to partici-
pate, discuss, and contribute creative arguments and suggestions
which then become
visualised. This visual representation provides a better and
deeper understanding of
topics discussed. Thus, complex debates can become easily
analysed, refined, or
evaluated, e.g. by pinpointing possible gaps and inconsistencies
or strong and weak
points in the arguments, etc. (Benn and Macintosh 2011).
Table 7.2 summarises well-known argumentation tools and
depicts their main
characteristics (i.e. whether they are open source, whether they
enable import-
ing/exporting data, whether they are Web-based or
collaborative, the argument
framework, whether they support visual representation
argumentation structure mod-
ification and manipulation of layouts). DebateGraph, Rationale,
Cope It!, and
bCisive constitute proprietary solutions, while Cohere,
Araucaria, Compendium,
and Carneades were developed during research studies within
universities and re-
search projects. Most argumentation tools enable users to share
ideas and collaborate
upon “wicked problems”. For example, DebateGraph allows
users to collaboratively
modify the structure and the content of debate maps in the same
way they can
collaboratively edit a wiki. In addition, MindMeister and
Compendium constitute
114. desktop-based solutions that support collaborative argument
analysis, while Mind-
Meister and bCisive also enable real-time collaboration. Though
most argumentation
tools provide, even partially, a visual representation of
discussions, only few sup-
port an easy layout manipulation; such tools are Compendium,
Araucaria, Cohere,
and DebateGraph. Besides argument analysis, argumentation
tools offer additional
features, such as argument reconstruction, discussion forums,
argument evaluation,
etc. For example, Araucaria and Argunet enable users to
reconstruct and map de-
bates, Cohere enables any content on the web to serve as a node
of information
in the argument map, and Rationale allows users to judge the
strength of an argu-
ment by evaluating its elements. These judgments are also
represented on the map.
Similarly, Carneades allows users to evaluate and compare
arguments as well as to
apply proof standards. Finally, Cope It! supports a threaded
discussion forum, while
[email protected]
7 A Comparative Analysis of Tools and Technologies for Policy
Making 133
Table 7.2 Argumentation tools. (Source: Benn and Macintosh
2011)
Tool Open
116. Cohere Yes Yes Yes Yes IBIS Yes Partially Partially
Compendium Yes Yes No Yes IBIS Yes Partially Partially
Cope_it! N/A No Yes Yes IBIS Yes Partially N/A
DebateGraph No No Yes Yes Multiple
(including
IBIS)
Partially Partially Partially
Rationale No No No No Classical Partially Partially N/A
bCisive No No Yes Yes IBIS Partially Partially N/A
MindMeister No Yes Yes Yes N/A Yes Yes Partially
IBIS Issue-Based Information System
bCisive incorporates group planning, decision making, and team
problem-solving
capabilities.
Argumentation tools facilitate better-informed public debate,
policy deliberation,
and dialogue mapping on the web about complex political
issues. For example,
DebateGraph has been used by the Dutch Foreign Ministry in its
recent consultation
on its human rights policy16, the UK Prime Minister’s
Office17, and the White
House’s Open Government Brainstorming.18 Compendium has
been used in a case
study for consultation on regional planning in southeast
117. Queensland (Ohl 2008).
Carneades has been developed during the European Estrella
project19 that aims to
help both citizens and government officials to take part, more
effectively, in dialogues
for assessing claims and has been used in several applications.
16 http://debategraph.org/MR
17 http://debategraph.org/No10.
18 http://debategraph.org/WH.
19 http://www.estrellaproject.org/.
[email protected]
134 E. Kamateri et al.
7.3.3 eParticipation Tools
eParticipation tools have been specifically developed to involve
citizens in the policy-
making process, i.e. to enable citizens to get informed, to
provide feedback on
different policy issues, and to get actively involved in decision
making (Gramberger
2001). These tools are mainly based on Web 2.0 features
including a variety of social
networking tools such as discussion forums or message boards,
wikis, electronic
surveys or polls, e-petitions, online focus groups, and
webcasting.
eParticipation may entail different types of involvement, which
are supported
by different tools and functionalities, ranging from the
118. provision of information,
to deliberation, community building and collaboration, active
involvement through
consultations, polling, and decision making. The International
Association for Public
Participation (IAP2) has produced a public participation
spectrum20, which shows
how various techniques may be employed to increase the level
of public impact.
Recently, eParticipation tools have been widely used by
governmental and public
authorities. Through actively engaging citizens, in the planning,
design, and de-
livery process of public policies, they have moved towards
improving democratic
governance, preventing conflicts, and facilitating citizens’
active participation in
the solution of issues affecting their lives. Table 7.3 presents a
set of such recently
developed eParticipation tools.
7.3.4 Opinion Mining Tools
The Web’s widespread use over the past decade has
significantly increased the pos-
sibility for users to express their opinion. The users not only
can post text messages
now but also can see what other users have written about the
same subject in a variety
of communication channels across the Web. Moreover, with the
advent of Twitter
and Facebook, status updates, and posts about any subject have
become the new
norm in social networking. This user-generated content usually
contains relevant
119. information on the general sentiment of users concerning
different topics including
persons, products, institutions, or even governmental policies.
Thus, an invaluable,
yet scattered, source of public opinion has quickly become
available.
Opinion-mining tools (or otherwise called sentiment analysis
tools) perform a
computational study of large quantities of textual contributions
in order to gather,
identify, extract, and determine the attitude expressed in them.
This attitude may be
users’ judgment or evaluation, their affectual state (that is to
say, the emotional state
of the author when writing), or the intended emotional
communication (that is to say,
the emotional effect the author wishes to have on the reader;
Stylios et al. 2010).
20 Available at:
http://www.iap2.org/associations/4748/files/spectrum.pdf.
[email protected]
7 A Comparative Analysis of Tools and Technologies for Policy
Making 135
Table 7.3 eParticipation tools developed to improve people
involvement in government
Typical actions Examples
Citizen Space Consultation and engagement software
120. Create, organise, and publish public
consultations across the net on complex
policy documents
Share consultation data openly in a
structured way
Provide a way to easily analyse consultation
data (both qualitative and quantitative)
Used by government bodies
to run e-consultations
around the world
Adhocracy.de Participation and voting software
Present and discuss issues
Collaborate (develop and work on texts
together)
Make proposals, gather, and evaluate
proposals
Add polls for decision making
Vote on issues
Used in the Munich Open
Government Day where
citizens could propose
policies, projects, and
actions of the city
MixedInk.com Collaborative writing software
Large groups of people work together to
write texts that express collective opinions
Post ideas
Combine ideas to make new versions
Post comments and rate versions to bring the
best ideas to the top
Used by the White House to
121. let citizens draft collective
policy recommendations for
the Open Government
Directive
Loomio.org Decision making and collaborative software
Initiate discussions and present proposals
that can then be discussed, modified, and
voted (Agree, Abstain, Disagree, or Block,
along with a brief explanation of why)
Change their position any time
Used by the Wellington City
Council for discussion with
their citizens
CitySourced Mobile civil engagement platform
Identify and report civic issues (graffiti,
trash, potholes, etc.), and comment on
existing ones
Used in San Francisco, Los
Angeles, and several other
cities in California
Puzzledbypolicy Consultation and opinion mapping software
Learn about policy issues concerning
immigration in the European Union (EU)
Give their voice
Graphically compare their views on
immigration with national and EU
immigration policies as well as with the
opinions of relevant stakeholders
Encourage to join discussions on particular
aspects of immigration policy they feel
strongly about
122. Used by the Athens and
Torino municipalities and
other stakeholders in
Tenerife, Hungary, and
Slovenia
[email protected]
136 E. Kamateri et al.
Table 7.3 (continued)
Typical actions Examples
Opinion Space Opinion mapping software
Collect and visualise user opinions on
important issues and policies (rate five
propositions on the chosen topic and type
initial response to a discussion question)
Show in a graphical “map” where user’s
opinions fall next to the opinions of other
participants
Display patterns, trends, and insights
Employ the wisdom of crowds to identify the
most insightful ideas
Used by US State
Department to engage
global online audiences on a
variety of foreign policy
issues
CivicEvolution.org Collaboration platform
123. Engage citizens in structured dialogue and
deliberation and develop detailed
community-written proposals to make
constructive changes
Used by the City of Greater
Geraldton, in Australia, to
facilitate collaboration and
deliberation among
participants in participatory
budgeting community
panels
UbiPol Mobile civil engagement platform
Identify and report problems or suggestions
Report policy issues
Used by TURKSAT, a
publicly owned but privately
operated company in
affiliation with Ministry of
Transportation in Turkey
OurSpace Youth eParticipation platform
Engage young people in the decision-making
process
Enable collaboration
European and National
Youth Organisations already
using OurSpace
Dialogue App Set up a dialogue
Share, rate, comment, and discuss ideas and
bring the best ideas to the top
124. Department for
Environment, Food and
Rural Affairs in the UK is
using Dialogue App to get
thoughts, ideas and input on
how to improve and
formulate policy
In social media, opinion mining usually refers to the extraction
of sentiments from
unstructured text. The recognised sentiments are classified as
positive, negative, and
neutral, or of a more fine-grained sentiment classification
scheme. Examples include
Sentiment140, Sentimentor, Repustate, etc. Opinion-mining
tools may also integrate
a broad area of approaches including natural language
processing, computational
linguistics, and text mining. Text mining, for example, can
provide a deeper analysis
of contributions; it summarises contributions, helps highlight
areas of agreement and
disagreement, and identifies participants’ main concerns—the
level of support for
draft proposals or suggestions for action that seem necessary to
address. Opinion
[email protected]
7 A Comparative Analysis of Tools and Technologies for Policy
Making 137
mining tools providing such approaches include DiscoverText,
RapidMiner, and
125. Weka.
Classifying statements is a common problem in opinion mining,
and different
techniques have been used to address this problem. These
techniques follow two
main approaches; those based on lexical resources and neutral-
language processing
(lexicon-based) and those employing machine-learning
algorithms. Lexicon-based
approaches rely on a sentiment lexicon—a collection of known
and precompiled
sentiment/opinion terms. These terms are words that are
commonly used to ex-
press positive or negative sentiments, e.g. “excellent”, “great”,
“poor”, and “bad”.
The method basically counts the number of positive and
negative terms, and de-
cides accordingly the final sentiment. Machine-learning
approaches that make use
of syntactic and/or linguistic features and hybrid techniques are
very common, with
sentiment lexicons playing a key role in the majority of
methods.
Table 7.4 presents several opinion mining tools that have been
recently developed
to analyse public opinions.
Opinion mining tools can help derive different inferences on
quality control, pub-
lic relations, reputation management, policy, strategy, etc.
Therefore, opinion mining
tools can be used to assist policy stakeholders and decision
makers in making more in-
formed decisions. In particular, knowing citizens’ opinion about
126. public and political
issues, proposed government actions, and interventions or
policies under formation
can ensure more socially acceptable policies and decisions.
Finally, gathering and
analysing public opinion can enable us to understand how a
certain community re-
acts to certain events and even try to discover patterns and
predict their reactions to
upcoming events based on their behaviour history
(Maragoudakis et al. 2011).
7.3.5 Simulation Tools
Simulation tools are based on agent-based modelling. This is a
recent technique
that is used to model and reproduce complex systems. An agent-
based system is
formed by a set of interacting and autonomous “agents” (Macal
and North 2005) that
represent humans. Agents act and interact with their
environment, including other
agents, to achieve their objectives (Onggo 2010). Agents’
behaviour is described by
a set of simple rules. However, agents may also influence each
other, learn from
their experiences, and adapt their behaviour to be better suited
to their environment.
Above all, they operate autonomously, meaning that they decide
whether or not to
perform an operation, taking into account their goals and
priorities, as well as the
known context. The analysis of interactions between agents
results at the creation
of patterns that enable visualising and understanding the system
or the phenomenon
127. under investigation.
[email protected]
138 E. Kamateri et al.
Table 7.4 Opinion mining tools
Purpose Sources Classification
SwiftRiver Aggregate, manage,
filter, and validate
web data
Discover relationship
and trends in data
Twitter, SMS, e-mail,
and RSS feeds
Machine learning
DiscoverText (Text analytics)
Search, filter, collect,
and classify data
Generate insights
E-mail archives,
social media content,
and other document
collections
Machine learning
Repustate Categorise and
128. visualise social media
data
Extract text sentiment
Predict future trends
Twitter or Facebook
Multiple languages
Machine learning
Opinion observer (Opinion mining)
Extract text sentiment
Discover patterns
Web pages Lexicon-based
(feature category)
AIRC Sentiment
Analyser
Extract text sentiment N/A Lexicon-based
Social Mention Aggregate and analyse
social media data
Extract text sentiment
Discover patterns
Blogs, comments,
social media including
Twitter, Facebook,
Social bookmarks,
microblogging
services, Images,
News, etc.
Lexicon-based
129. Umigon Sentiment analysis Twitter Lexicon-based
Convey API Sentiment analysis Social media records Machine
learning
Natural-language
processing
Statistical modelling
Sentiment140 Sentiment analysis for
tweets on a subject or
keyword
Twitter Machine learning
Natural-language
processing
Sentimentor Sentiment analysis for
tweets on a subject
Twitter Machine learning
Corpora’s Applied
Linguistics
Document
summarisation and
sentiment analysis
Documents Natural-language
processing in
combination with an
extensive English
language lexicon
Attentio Sentiment analysis Blogs, news, and
130. discussion forum sites
Lexicon-based
Machine learning
[email protected]
7 A Comparative Analysis of Tools and Technologies for Policy
Making 139
Table 7.4 (continued)
Purpose Sources Classification
Opinmind Sentiment analysis of
bloggers opinion
Blogs Not available
ThinkUp Archive and analyse
social media life
Twitter and Facebook Machine learning
In this sense, simulation tools are particularly suited to explore
the complexity of
social systems. A social system consists of a collection of
individuals who interact
directly or through their social environment. These individuals
evolve autonomously
as they are motivated by their own beliefs and personal goals,
as well as the cir-
cumstances of their social environment. Simulating social
systems and analysing the
131. effects of individuals’ interactions can result in the construction
of social patterns
(e.g. how society responds to a change) that can be used for
policy analysis and
planning as well as for participatory modelling (Bandini et al.
2009).
There are several general-purpose simulation tools. Most of
them are open source
and free to be accessed by anyone. Some of these are specially
designed to focus
on social systems. For example, Multi-Agent Simulation Suite
(MASS) is a soft-
ware package intended to enable modellers to simulate and
study complex social
environments. To this end, it models the individual together
with its imperfections
(e.g. limited cognitive or computational abilities), its
idiosyncrasies, and personal
interactions. Another tool focusing on the development of
flexible models for living
social agents is Repast.
An increasing number of tools for the simulation and analysis of
social inter-
actions has been developed in recent years. These aim to help
policy stakeholders
and decision makers to simulate the long-term impact of policy
decisions. Table 7.5
presents such simulation tools that have been used in the field
of health, environment,
developmental policies, etc.
7.3.6 Serious Games
Agent-based modelling is used also in serious games, providing
132. the opportunity for
experiential and interactive learning and exploration of large
uncertainties, divergent
values, and complex situations through an engaging, active, and
critical environment
(Raybourn et al. 2005). Serious games enable players to learn
from the accurate rep-
resentations of real-world phenomena and the contextual
information and knowledge
and data embedded in the dynamics of the game. Abt (1987)
defines serious games
as games with “an explicit and carefully thought-out
educational purpose and are not
intended to be played primarily for amusement”.
[email protected]
140 E. Kamateri et al.
Table 7.5 Simulation tools simulating the long-term impact of
policy decisions
Purpose Input Interface Scale
Threshold 21 Simulate the
long-term impact of
socioeconomic
development
policies
About 800 variables
concerning
economic, social,
and environment
133. factors
Flexible Customisable
to suit the
needs of any
sector and
country
GLEaMviz Simulate global
epidemics
Detailed
population,
mobility, and
epidemic–infection
data (real-world
data)
Compartmentalised
disease models
Visual tool
for designing
compartmen-
tal
models
Thirty
countries in 5
different
continents
The Climate
Rapid
Overview and
Decision-
support
134. Simulator
(C-ROADS)
Simulate long-term
climate impacts of
policy scenarios to
reduce greenhouse
gas emissions (CO2
concentration,
temperature,
sea-level rise)
Sources of
historical data
Flexible
equations are
available and
easily
auditable
Six-region and
15-region
mode
UrbanSim Simulate the
possible long-term
effects of different
policies on urban
development
(land use,
transportation, and
environmental
planning)
Historical data Flexible Any country
135. Modelling the
Early Life
Course
(MEL-C)
Simulate the effects
of policy making in
the early life course
and issues
concerning children
and young people
Data from existing
longitudinal studies
to quantify the
underlying
determinants of
progress in the
early life course
Flexibly
adapted for
new data and
parameter
inputs
N/A
Global
Buildings
Performance
Network
(GBPN)
Policy
Comparative
136. Tool
An interactive tool
that enables users to
compare the
world’s best
practice policies for
new buildings
(residential and
commercial)
N/A N/A N/A
[email protected]
7 A Comparative Analysis of Tools and Technologies for Policy
Making 141
Table 7.5 (continued)
Purpose Input Interface Scale
CLASP’s
Policy
Analysis
Modeling
System
(PAMS)
Forecast the
impacts of energy
efficiency standards
and labelling
programs
137. Assess the benefits
of policies, identify
the most attractive
targets for
appliances, and
efficiency levels
N/A N/A Support basic
modelling
inputs for
over 150
countries
Customisable
where
country-
specific data
is available
Scenario
Modelling and
Policy
Assessment
Tool
(EUREAPA)
Model the effects of
policies on
environment,
consumption,
industry, and trade
Detailed carbon,
ecological, and
water footprint
indicators
138. N/A N/A
Budget
simulator
Budget consultation
platform that
enables to adjust
budget items and
see the
consequences of
their allocations on
council tax and
service areas
N/A Flexible Any country
CLASP Comprehensive, Lightweight Application Security
Process, EUREAPA, MEL-C, C-ROADS
In policy making, serious games provide the opportunity for
players to assume
roles of real-world critical stakeholders whose decisions rely on
extensive data col-
lected from the world around them. In this way, players get
educated on the process
of decision making as well as on the limitations and trade-offs
involved in policy
making. Serious games may be used in fields like defence,
education, scientific ex-
ploration, health care, emergency management, city planning,
engineering, religion,
and politics (Caird-Daley et al. 2007).
Table 7.6 summarises a number of serious games aiming to
tackle different
139. social and political problems. In some of these, users assume
the role of critical
stakeholders. For example, in 2050 Pathways, users play as if
they were the Energy
and Climate Change Minister of the UK, while, in Democracy,
users act as the
president or the prime minister of a modern country. Other
games enable users to
apply policies/strategies and explore their potential impact.
Such an example is the
Maryland Budget Map Game that gives the option to make cost-
cutting decisions
and consider short-term and long-term budget effects. Serious
games also help users
gain virtual experiences for solving real-world problems. Thus,
such games could be
used to train citizens and public authorities on how to enforce a
policy, e.g. a disas-
ter or crisis management policy. For instance, Breakaway
simulates critical incidents
[email protected]
142 E. Kamateri et al.
Table 7.6 Serious games focusing on policy making
Purpose Features Scope
2050 Pathways Users act as the energy and
climate change minister
and explore the complex
choices and trade-offs
which the UK will have to
140. make to reach the 80 %
emission reduction targets
by 2050, while matching
energy demand and supply
It covers all parts of
the economy and all
greenhouse gas
emissions
Users create their
emission reduction
pathway, and see the
impact using real
scientific data
Scientific
exploration and
engineering
Democracy Users are in the position of
president (or prime
minister) of a modern
country and the objective
of the game is to stay in
power as long as possible
It recreates a modern
political system as
accurately as possible
Users influence the
voters and the
country by putting in
place policies
Education,
political strategy
141. Maryland Budget
Map Game
Users act as the
administration and general
assembly of a state
Gives the options to make
cost-cutting decisions,
weigh revenue options,
and consider short-term
and long-term budget
effects
It explains how
budgeting decisions
are made
Education,
political strategy
NationStates—
create your own
country
Users build a nation and
run it according to their
political ideals and care
for people
N/A Entertainment,
education
Breakaway(disaster
management—
incident
142. commander)
Helps incident
commanders and other
public safety personnel
train and plan for how they
might respond to a wide
range of critical incidents
It models acts of
terrorism, school
hostage situations,
and natural disasters
Education,
emergency
management
The Social
Simulator
Trains communications,
policy, and frontline staff
in a variety of sectors
using a number of crisis
scenarios
Users use the language,
tools, and norms of the
social web for crisis
response
It models terrorist
attacks, a leaked
report spreads anger
about a government
policy, etc.