"Many have become wealthy peddling forecasting of untested value to corporate executives, government officials, and ordinary people who would never think of swallowing medicine of unknown efficacy and safety but who routinely pay for forecasts that are as dubious as elixirs sold from the back of a wagon" (Tetlock, 2015:5)

1. TonyRidley-InternationalSecurity&RiskManagementProfessional
References:
Tetlock, P. and Gardner, D. (2015) Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, London:
Random House.p.252.
"Consumers of forecasting will stop being gulled
by pundits with good stories and start asking
pundits how their past predictions fared - and
reject answers that consist of nothing but
anecdotes and credentials....;"
"...an 'evidence-based forecasting' revolution,
similar to the 'evidence-based medicine'
revolution, with consequences every bit as
significant"
Member of:
Forecasting:
Intelligence, Predictions, Experts,
Accuracy & Guessing
Scientific observations by the Professor that conducted a 20 year analysis
of 284 highly educated experts, 82,361 estimates of the future and
discovered just how routinely wrong (significantly) the 'experts' are; that
then outperformed the $50 billion per year US Intelligence Industrial
Machine over a 4 year period (by up to 30%), with random, decentralised
volunteers from around the US, even when the intelligence analysts had
access to/used classified information!
https://www.linkedin.com/in/tonyridley/

2. TonyRidley-InternationalSecurity&RiskManagementProfessional
References:
Tetlock, P. and Gardner, D. (2015) Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, London:
Random House.p.258.
Member of:
Forecasting:
Intelligence, Predictions,
Experts, Accuracy & Guessing
"...another manifestation of a
broad and deep shift away from
decision making based on
experience, intuition, and
authority - 'Do this because I
think it will work and I'm an
expert' - toward quantification
and analysis.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/tonyridley/

3. TonyRidley-InternationalSecurity&RiskManagementProfessional
“That which can be asserted
without evidence can be
dismissed without
evidence.”
Member of:
― Professor Christopher Hitchens
Intelligence, Predictions,
Accuracy & Guessing
Forecasting:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/tonyridley/