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Fat tail distribution hypothesis.tony ridley.security risk management.security consultant
1. TonyRidley-InternationalSecurity&RiskManagementProfessional
https://www.linkedin.com/in/tonyridley/
Member of
The "Bulk" of the Security Industry
The Fat Tail Distribution Hypothesis
Level1
Level2
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100
75
50
25
0
"Complex adaptive systems often tend to evolve towards a critical state - the slope of
a the sandpile increases until it approaches chaos" (Orrell, 2017)
TheMean
Diploma
TheMedian
Degree
Masters'
PhD
Service
C
ertification
AccreditationLevel1Level2Level3Level4Level5Level6Level7Level8Level9Level10
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75
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TheMedian
TheMean
Figure 1 - Security Education Distribution
Figure 2 - Security Industry Distribution
"when there are a lot
of people willing
and able to do a job,
that job doesn't
usually pay well"
(Levitt and Daubner,
2006)
"The 80/20 Power curve
is the most important
chart in any business"
(Marshall, 2013)
2. TonyRidley-InternationalSecurity&RiskManagementProfessional
https://www.linkedin.com/in/tonyridley/
Member of
The "Bulk" of the Security Industry
The Fat Tail Distribution (Taleb, 2007) Hypothesis
Failure of Invariance
Prospect Theory
Pareto Principle
Power Law
Zipf's Law
Regression to the Mean
"There is no difference other than in accounting
conventions between a cost and a loss."
(Bernstien, 1996)
"Many of the industry's problems (lack of regulation,
poor training, corruption) continue to exist in a
number of states, and looking at these problems
historically should give us guidance for the future"
(George and Kimber, 2014)
References:
See Also:
Berstien, P. (1996) Against the Gods: The remarkable story of risk, Wiley & Sons,p.276.
George, B. and Kimber, S. (2014) 'The history of private security and its impact on the modern security sector',
in Gil, M. (ed) The Security Handbook, 2nd edn, Palgrave McMillan, p. 37.
Levitt, S. and Dubner, J. (2006) Freakonomics, New York: Harper Collins.p.95.
Marshall, P. (2013) 80/20 Sales and Marketing, Entrepreneur Media, p.41
Rachev, S., Menn, C. and Fabozzi, F. (2005) Fat-Tailed and Skewed Asset Return Distributions: Implications for
Risk Management, Portfolio Selection, and Option Pricing, Wiley and Sons, p.41.
Taleb, N. (2007) The Black Swan, Random House and Penguin. P.219.
Orrell, D. (2017) Economyths: 11 Ways Economics Gets It Wrong, Icon Books, p.215.
Tetlock, P. and Gardner, D. (2015) Superforecasters: The Art and Science of Probability, London: Random
House.pp.241-246.
Ridley, T. (2019) Education Levels: Professionals (Guide) Corporate and Private Security, available at
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6546649491423014912