Briefing on the South China Sea

1. Conflict in the
South China Sea
MOAA – Jul 25, 2017

2. The mission of the nonpartisan,
nonprofit Tennessee World Affairs
Council is to promote international
awareness, understanding and
connections to enhance the region’s
global stature and to prepare
Tennesseans to thrive in our
increasingly complex and connected
world.
www.TNWAC.ORG

3. Jul 26 – Doomsday Clock
Aug 10 – End of Europe *
Aug 30 – US-China Trade
Sep 5 – Asia’s Reckoning *
Oct 1 – USIP President
Nov 13 – Amb Frank Wisner
www.TNWAC.ORG

4. Asian Border Disputes
o Northern Territories/Southern Kuriles (Japan and Russia)
o Senkakus/Diaoutai/Diaoyu Dao (Japan, China and Taiwan)
o Dok-do/Takeshima (Korea and Japan)
o Paracels/Xisha Islands (Vietnam and China)
o Nansha/Spratlys (China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia,
and the Philippines
o Preah Vihear Temple Complex (Cambodia and Thailand)
o Numerous Naming Conflicts

14. Fiery Cross Reef
(Western Spratleys)
Hangars for 24 combat aircraft and four
larger aircraft (ISR, transport, refueling,
bombers) completed Jan 2017.
Significant radar/sensor arrays

15. Mischief Reef
(Eastern Spratleys)
Hangars for 24 combat aircraft
completed March 2017.
Five more larger hangars near
completion.
Significant radar/sensor arrays.
Retractable roofs on recently
completed missile shelters

16. Subi Reef
(Spratleys)
Hangars for 24 combat aircraft and four
larger hangars. Complete.
Significant radar/sensor arrays. Special
sensor arrays (HF radar).
Point defense near sensors.

18. US Pacific Command
US based and forward
deployed air, naval and
ground forces

19. China’s island building
campaign was illegal -- ”…akin
to Russia’s taking of Crimea.”
“We’re going to have to send
China a clear signal that, first
the island building stops. And
second, your access to those
islands is not going to be
allowed.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson
Confirmation Hearing
Jan 11, 2017
Sending Signals

20. We know that, through further
dialogue, we will achieve a
greater understanding that will
lead to a strengthened --
strengthening of the ties
between China and the United
States, and set the tone for our
future relationship of
cooperation.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson
Remarks with President Xi Jinping in Beijing
March 19, 2017
Sending Signals

21. “China strongly urges the U.S. side to
immediately stop this kind of provocative
action which seriously violates China's
sovereignty and puts at risk China's
security."
"The U.S. conduct seriously damages
strategic trust between the two sides and
seriously damages the political
atmosphere of the development of China-
U.S. military relations."
Sending Signals
Freedom of Navigation Ops
May 2017 – USS Dewey
July 2017 – USS Stethem

23. Conflict in the
South China Sea

24. Nonprofit, nonpartisan educational
organization that relies on
membership and donations to bring
global literacy programs to the
community.
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www.TNWAC.ORG

25. For Discussion
Beijing cites the U.S. “rebalance to
Asia” as evidence of containment. To
what extent is that perception
justified, or is it totally unjustified?

26. For Discussion
What influence do Chinese domestic
political concerns have on Beijing’s
calculations on the South China Sea?

27. For Discussion
Given that UNCLOS has no
enforcement mechanism, is the
2016 ITLOS ruling on China’s claim in
the South China Sea likely to have
any significant affect on the situation
on the ground? If so, how?

28. For Discussion
Should China’s historical experience
during the “100 Years of
Humiliation” figure more
prominently in U.S. and international
policy considerations in the South
China Sea?

29. For Discussion
China rejects multilateral negotiations in
South China Sea disputes, claiming that
direct negotiations between the relevant
parties is the better approach. Many
criticize this position as a way for China to
maintain the upper hand in disputes with
less powerful countries. Are disputes in the
South China Sea better solved bilaterally or
multilaterally?