The document discusses the economic and military rise of China and its implications for the United States' global power. As China's economy grows, it may surpass the U.S. as the world's largest economy by the mid-21st century. Some analysts argue this will inevitably lead to conflicts of interest and possible military confrontation between the two countries. The U.S. is working to contain China's rise by strengthening military alliances with countries like Japan. However, the U.S. and China also have significant economic interdependence, making direct confrontation difficult. There are differing views within the U.S. on whether to pursue more cooperation or confrontation with China.

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THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA CONFRONTS IN THE
CONTEMPORARY AGE
Fernando Alcoforado *
The economic decline of the United States deepened in the first decade of the 21st
century to the time when China's economic rise took hold, which may assume the status
of larger world power in the middle of the 21st century. It is not clear, however, whether
there will be a happy ending for Humanity. If China's prosperity comes at the expense
of a failure to recover the economies of the United States and the European Union, and
also of the world economy, it could lead the United States and other countries to
confront it in the economic and military fields.
Robert D. Kaplan, an American journalist who studies international politics, says
China's emergence as a superpower is inevitable and that conflicts of interest with the
United States will be inescapable. He admits a military confrontation between the
United States and China. Kaplan suggests a broad enough coalition to confront China in
the mold of the organized to defeat Germany in World War II [BRUSSI, Antônio José
Escobar. A pacífica ascensão da China: perspectivas positivas para o futuro? (The
Peaceful Rise of China: Positive Prospects for the Future?). Brasília: Revista Brasileira
de Política Internacional, vol.51, no.1, 2008 Vol.51, no.1, 2008].
James Pinkerton, a North American political writer and analyst, is a harsh critic of
Kaplan's military restraint strategy and Kissinger's accommodation proposal that
American interest will be much more easily achieved through cooperation with China.
Pinkerton opposes Kaplan because he considers it unfeasible to have a coalition broad
enough to confront China. Pinkerton proposes that, instead of direct confrontation, the
United States government places the current Asian powers (India, China and Japan)
against each other (BRUSSI, 2008).
To rise to the hegemonic power status of the planet, China will have to adopt 6
strategies: 1) to achieve high levels of economic growth to surpass the United States; 2)
continuously raise its share in international trade to lead it; 3) to withdraw from the
United States the economic and military leadership in Asia, which means reaching the
core of American power in the region; 4) to prevent India from being an autonomous
pole of economic attraction in Asia, possibly in alignment with the United States; 5)
become an indispensable power for peace in the Persian Gulf between Persians (Iran)
and Arabs (particularly Saudi Arabia) with the decline of US influence in this region;
and, 6) strengthen the economic and military alliance with Russia.
China is building a large naval force to control the Pacific Ocean with the immediate
aim of curbing US military power in the western Pacific. The Chinese are building a
defensive force, which includes weapons that can hit US military targets. Chinese
military spending will surpass the combined budgets of the twelve other major powers
in the Asia-Pacific [WINES, Michael. EUA e China procuram acordar estratégia
militar (US and China seek to agree on military strategy). Available on website <
http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mundo/944409-eua-e-china-procuram-acordar-estrategia-
militar.shtml >].
China is increasing its naval power by building artificial islands in a sea area possessor
of large oil reserves in dispute with Japan in the South China Sea. According to The
Economist magazine, China will exceed US military spending by 2025 [ALVES, José

2. 2
Eustáquio Diniz. EUA, China e Índia: disputa de hegemonia e destruição do meio
ambiente. (USA, China and India: dispute over hegemony and destruction of the
environment). Available on <http://www.ecodebate.com.br/2012/01/13/eua-china-e-
india-disputa-de-hegemonia-e-destruicao-do-meio-ambiente-artigo-de-jose-eustaquio-
diniz-alves/>, 2012].
From the year 2000, Russia decided to develop a strategic partnership with China.
Russia considered that China could help it in its resistance to the geopolitical ambitions
of the United States in both Eastern Europe and the Caucasus or Central Asia. The
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was established in 2001 to establish an
alliance between Russia and China in military and counterterrorism terms, religious
fundamentalism and separatism in the Asian region [MAZAT, Numa and SERRANO,
Franklin. A Geopolítica das Relações entre a Federação Russa e os EUA: da
“Cooperação” ao Conflito (The Geopolitics of Relations between the Russian
Federation and the US: from "Cooperation" to the Conflict). Available on the website
<http://www.revistaoikos.org/seer/index.php/oikos/article/view/293>, 2012].
Numa Mazat and Franklin Serrano (2012) affirm that the partnership between China and
Russia exists, also, in the armament sector. Throughout the 1990s, arms sales to China
were essential to the survival of the Russian military-industrial complex. Russia is
China's largest supplier of modern weapons. Lastly, the strategic partnership between
China and Russia is so fundamental to the two countries that the natural differences of
interests between the two powers, however important, have not been able to threaten the
collaboration between the two countries with regard to attempt to limit the power of the
United States.
To block the rise of China as the hegemonic power of the planet, US military strategy is
centered on the Asia-Pacific region. As an ally of the United States, Japan collaborates
with China's US "siege" strategy by strengthening its power military up to 2020.
[SOUZA, Ricardo. Japão reforça estratégia militar para reagir à China (Japan
reinforces military strategy to react to China). Available on the website
<http://www.portugues.rfi.fr/geral/20101217-japao-reforca-estrategia-militar-para-
reagir-china>, 2010].
The alternative of non-confrontation with China would result from the economic
interdependence between the United States and China because this country depends on
the US market and investments, and the United States needs the Chinese Central Bank
to buy a large share of the US debt securities. This situation reinforces the position
advocated by Henry Kissinger, a former US Secretary of State, who understands that
American interest will be much more easily achieved through cooperation with China.
In the United States, there are opponents and defenders of a posture of confrontation
with China in the economic field. There are those who call for tougher US supervision
of domestic and international trade rules and for the Trump government to push to
pressure China to open sectors of its economy in which foreign investment is restricted.
They say these measures should be undertaken along with efforts to attract China to
new trade and investment agreements with the United States. Others are fearful that
Trump could unleash a destructive trade war between the two biggest economies in the
world that would hurt both. There are others who see China increasingly protectionist
and mercantilist leaving no option for Trump other than to take a tougher posture
fulfilling the campaign promises to impose itself on the relationship with Beijing.

3. 3
In turn, Chinese officials believe that Trump will adopt a relatively moderate policy
because of deep economic ties between the two countries and the damage that a trade
war would inflict on both. They understand that the economies of the United States and
China are so intimately linked that a Chinese retaliation to Trump's measures would
affect the interests of the American people [DONNAN, Shawn and HORNBY, Lucy.
Especialistas americanos apoiam postura mais dura com a China (American experts
support a tougher posture with China). Available on website
<http://salvador2012.blogspot.com.br/2017/02/especialistas-americanos-apoiam-
postura.html>, 2017].
* Fernando Alcoforado, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor of Territorial
Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, a university professor and
consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is
the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova
(Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado.
Universidade de Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e
Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX
e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of
the Economic and Social Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller
Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe
Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável-
Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do
Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social
(Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática
Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015) and As Grandes Revoluções Científicas,
Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016).