atelier t*h

1. FORESIGHT METHODS
Long-range foresight is about understanding the situation today,
seeking future opportunities, and intelligently creating
innovations. Our Foresight methods are designed to help you
turn your visions and long-range plans into immediate action.
Based on our experience in industry and at different universities, we have
developed a set of Foresight methods as a systematic practice. Using these
methods of foresight and innovation strategy, you will be able to prepare
successfully for your organization’s future and answer 3 fundamental questions:
• How do I begin looking for future opportunities?
• How can I create a path to these opportunities that anticipates the
inevitable changes along the way?
• What can I start doing today that will help me get there first?
Three-Phase Process
The Stanford Foresight and Innovation process is designed to help all types of
companies and people learn how to apply each method as part of an
integrated, repeatable practice.
This process can be understood as three overlapping phases: Perspective to
Opportunity to Solution. Each phase recognizes a distinct set of activities within
the broader lifecycle of long-range innovation, although the phases tend to
overlap in real life. Often, the start of the process has the highest ambiguity for
participants.
Perspective Opportunity Solution
• Perspective: The first phase is to develop historical perspective about
an area of interest relevant to the future you want to live in. You must
look back first in order to look forward.
• Opportunity: The second phase helps you develop an ability to see
growth opportunities that exist today and extend into the future.
Today’s opportunities become tomorrow’s innovations.
• Solution: The third phase seeks to define the questions that exist
along different paths to innovation. Innovative solutions are specific to
your industry, customers, organization, and individual skills.
© 2009 | William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton (over)

2. Nine Core Tools
Each phase is associated with a set of three tools, and all nine core tools can
be integrated as part of an ongoing process of foresight and innovation
strategy.
Context Map: a mapping technique for capturing emergent conversation
themes in complex problems to show integrated context.
Progression Curves: a graphical representation that explains the
progression of changes in terms of technological, social, and related filters.
Janus Cones: a foresight tool for looking backwards and forwards in time
to identify the timing of historical events and how timing affects potential
future events.
Demographics: a research method to identify and track population
changes within a specific group over time in order to understand
impending changes on the workforce, life stages, future markets, and other
variables.
Future Users: a tool to explore the potential future of a chosen demo-
graphic through the comparative analysis between similar groups over
time.
Futuretelling: short and dramatic performances that illustrate a particular
user need as a scene from the future. This is active storytelling at its best.
White Spots: a strategic tool for studying the future opportunity space
defined by two salient issues. Opportunities can be discovered in the ‘white
spots’, or empty areas.
Change Paths: a set of data-driven narratives exploring different paths
and key decision points toward possible future innovations.
Paper Mockups: an advanced design method to prototype and
communicate a new concept in three-dimensions (3D) using paper and
inexpensive materials.
© 2009 | William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton 2