Jean-Pierre Nicolas' presentation on transport costs and oil vulnerability in French metropolitan areas at the 2-day international workshop "Energy-related economic stress at the interface between transport poverty, fuel poverty and residential location", held at the University of Leeds, 20th – 21st May 2015.

1. University of Leeds, 20th
-21st
May 2015
Energy-related economic stress at the interface between
transport poverty, fuel poverty and residential location
Transport costs, oil vulnerability and urban form in French
metropolitan areas
Lessons from the Local French Household Travel Surveys
Jean-Pierre Nicolas
Transport Economics Laboratory
University of Lyon, France

2. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 2/28
Source: Laurent Jardinier, CEREMA, 2015
Annual kilometres travelled by car per inhabitant
Averagefuelprice(€2008/litre)Relationship between fuel price and car travelled distances in France (1960-2013)

3. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 3/28
The previous slide shows the link between distances travelled by car
and fuel price in France over the fifty last years: the distance grows
steadily over the years, whatever the fuel price…
There are just 3 moments when the rise stops, and it is just after the
3 oil crisis, in 1972, 1978 and 2000.
The stop of the last decade is very sharp, but the oil price is not the
only factor involved (economic stagnation, transport policies less in
favour of the car, decrease of urban sprawl dynamics, changes in
attitudes toward car and, more generally, the limits of the car
system expansion)
Context

4. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 4/28
It is in the context of these 15 last years that an
increasing number of researches have been
conducted in order to have a better understanding
about social exclusion, poverty and vulnerability
linked to transport.
Car dependency is the main point behind all these
research works but, to be more specific, at least 3
questions have been raised:
An overall debate on urban sprawl vs compact or
multi-polar city
The consequences of public transport deregula-
tion, with less services and growing prices
The rise of oil and fuel cost since 2000
Context

5. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 5/28
In that general context, this presentation is about how the Household
Travel Surveys can be useful to analyse the vulnerability due to daily
mobility.
It has been organised into 4 main points:
 A presentation of the French Household Travel Surveys
 An analysis of the main explanative factors for household
vulnerability due to their daily mobility
 A focus on the links between urban form and vulnerability
 The main trends of the household expenditure for their daily
mobility
Most of the results of this presentation have been calculated with the Lyon
surveys, and also from Bordeaux, Lille and Marseille.
Content

6. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 6/28
 A detailed description of each trip (motivation, origin, destination,
hour, mode, car characteristics, etc.)
 A detailed description of the persons and households surveyed
 Interactions between household members
What can we do with French HH travel surveys?
Collection of all the trips made during one weekday by the
persons older than 5 years old of the surveyed households
=> It is possible to analyse the factors explaining the risk of
vulnerability induced by daily mobility costs

7. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 7/28
A single day mobility
=> high variability from one day to another
=> results need to be aggregated by groups of people or hh to be meaningful
Only the carried out mobility is known
=> nothing about the « potential demand »
=> difficult to investigate a lack of mobility due to poverty (no money to pay the
transport costs) and/or social exclusion (no economic or social activity)
Transport costs are not known
=> even if controlled assumptions can be made to estimate them
Housing costs are not known
=> difficult to analyse a HH budget combining housing and transport
What are the limits of the HH travel surveys?

8. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 8/28
More than poverty and social exclusion, HH travel surveys are helpful
to investigate vulnerability linked to daily mobility,
with “vulnerability” understood as the combination of 3 factors:
 Exposition (to an increase of transport costs)
 Sensitivity (if transport costs are high comparatively to the
income or the disposal income)
 Adaptability (if the HH are able to give up an activity, change a
too far destination or change from a too expensive mode to
another)
Vulnerability
Adger WN., 2006, Vulnerability, Global Environmental Change 16, pp. 268-281
Watts M., Bohle H, 1993, The space of vulnerability: the causal structure of hunger and famine, Progress
in Human Geography 17, 1, pp. 43-67

9. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 9/28
Estimate of daily mobility expenditure
What does one need to complete a HH travel survey to estimate
travel costs and a household daily mobility expenditure?
GIS (distances) + COPERT (consumption) to estimate energy expenditure
Family Budget Survey to estimate fixed costs (car depreciation, garage,
insurance) and non direct expenditure (maintenance, repair, etc.)
 Local and national data to estimate direct variable expenditures
(ex local: parking, public transport costs; national: fuel price)
 National Transport Survey as a complement:
 to express expenditure per year
 to distribute some of the costs between local and long distance travel (car
depreciation, maintenance & repair) in proportion of the travelled distances

10. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 10/28
Which explanative factors
affect daily mobility expenditure and household budget?
Nicolas J-P., Verry D., Vanco F., 2012, Mobilité quotidienne et vulnérabilité des ménages, Revue
d’Economie Régionale et Urbaine, 2012-1, pp. 19-44

11. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 11/28
% of households with
travel expenditure>18%/income
Factors explaining vulnerability: location
Nicolas et al., 2012, from Lyon 2006 HH trip survey

12. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 12/28
Factors explaining vulnerability: employment
Nicolas et al., 2012, from Lyon 2006 HH trip survey
Income
x
forced travels
effect

13. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 13/28
Factors explaining vulnerability: children care
Nicolas et al., 2012, from Lyon 2006 HH trip survey

14. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 14/28
Intensity of forced travels
- number of employed in the household: home-work commuting
- at a less degree, the number of children in the HH: to give them lifts to their activities
 location density, distance from the centre, access to different modes
wealth
Households expenditure for their daily mobility in Lyon conurbation in 2006
Public transport costs Car fixed costs Car variable costs
Synthesis: 3 main factors
Household typology
Single person with job or no
Couple (0, 1, 2 jobs)
Family (with 1, 2+ jobs)
Lone parent family
Location
City centre
City: Lyon-Villeurbanne
1st ring
suburbs
Wealth
3 classes of income
20/60/20%
Pelé., 2014, from Lyon 2006 HH trip survey

15. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 15/28
Urban form,
daily mobility expenditure,
and household budget
Nicolas J-P., Verry D., Vanco F., 2012, Mobilité quotidienne et vulnérabilité des ménages, Revue
d’Economie Régionale et Urbaine, 2012-1, pp. 19-44
Nicolas J.-P., Vanco F., Verry D., 2014, The socioeconomic and spatial factors that explain the affordability
of daily travel for households, 5th
Transport Research Arena Conference, Transport Solutions, from
Research to Deployment. Paris, 14-17 April 2014. 10 p.

16. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 16/28
Three conurbations, three different cases
% of households with
travel expenditure >18%/income
Bordeaux
Tourcoing
Roubaix
Lille
Aix-en-Provence
Marseille
Nicolas et al., 2012, from Marseille 1997, Bordeaux 1998 & Lille 1998 HH trip surveys
Conurbation
Studied area
(km²)
Population
Population
density (hab/km2
)
Average income
per household
(€2001)
Share of income
dedicated to daily
mobility
Lille 861 1 181 724 1 343 25 953 9,5
Marseille 3 144 1 690 898 538 24 295 10,3
Bordeaux 1 724 801 302 465 27 487 9,1

17. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 17/28
Three conurbations, three different cases
Nicolas et al., 2012, from Marseille 1997, Bordeaux 1998 & Lille 1998 HH trip surveys

18. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 18/28
• Household characteristics is the first explanative factor (wealth,
number of working members, children)
• The further away one moves from the centre, the more sub-
centres increase affordability
• The effects of urban form differ according to household
characteristics
– Worker living alone: job accessibility
– One-worker couple: density
– One-worker family: presence of business services (centrality), presence of
administration, schools and medical services
Differences inside one urban area
Test: logit models to explain a high level of mobility expenditure
crossing urban form vs households characteristics
Nicolas et al., 2014, from Lyon 2006 HH trip surveys

19. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 19/28
Synthesis: urban form is not enough
At a global level:
Density?... more: multi-polarity and a good spatial matching between job
and household locations;
Quality of public transport;
Population wealth;
At a local level:
Living in a urban pole,
with lots of different amenities (jobs, schools, shops, administrations…)
and a good public transport system relying to the city center

20. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 20/28
Daily mobility expenditure trends
Changes between 1995 and 2006 Lyon Household Travel Surveys
Nicolas J-P., Pelé N., 2015, Les évolutions des dépenses des ménages lyonnais pour leur mobilité
quotidienne : la hausse du prix du carburant n'explique pas tout. ASRDLF Conference, Montpellier,
France, to come in July 2015.
Pelé N., 2014, Les dépenses des ménages de l'aire urbaine de Lyon pour leur mobilité quotidienne.
Master Report, ENTPE – University of Lyon.

21. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 21/28
ifferent trends, depending on expenditure line
Household average annual expenditure in Lyon: 2 090€ in 1995 => 2 320€ in 2006
+11,2% per household, but +22% per person
Nicolas et Pelé, 2015, from Lyon 1995 & 2006 HH trip surveys

22. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 22/28
City centre: car ownership is more and more expensive
More concerned: families with two workers because their car ownership increased
(27% multimotorised in 1995 and 37% in 2006)
Ménages résidant dans l’hypercentre de Lyon
Different trends, depending on location
Nicolas et Pelé, 2015, from Lyon 1995 & 2006 HH trip surveys

23. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 23/28
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1995 2006 1995 2006 1995 2006 1995 2006
Couple1a - Couple2a - Famille1a - Famille2a
Dépenses (€) Evolution des dépenses des ménages de la deuxième périphérie
Dépenses d'usage de la voiture Dépenses de motorisation Dépenses de stationnement Dépenses TC
Suburbs: growing expenditures are relied both to motorisation and car use
More concerned: couples and families with one or two working members
Different trends, depending on location
Nicolas et Pelé, 2015, from Lyon 1995 & 2006 HH trip surveys

24. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 24/28
Very different trends depending on location
Zoom 1 : unemployed people
Nicolas et Pelé, 2015, from Lyon 1995 & 2006 HH trip surveys

25. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 25/28
Zoom 2 : retired people
Car ownership growth, little mobility expenditure increase but stable budget share
Nicolas et Pelé, 2015, from Lyon 1995 & 2006 HH trip surveys

26. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 26/28
Zoom 3 : lone parent families
A growing expenditure, whatever the location
Nicolas et Pelé, 2015, from Lyon 1995 & 2006 HH trip surveys

27. Nicolas JP,
ITS Leeds, DEMAND - (t)ERES Seminar, 20th
-21st
May 2015 27/28
 Of course, oil price growth has got a significant impact
on households with workers, car dependant for long forced trips
 In France, there is also a sharp rise of car parking cost in city centres
- Growing pressure from the real estate situation in most of main conurbations
- Strengthened by voluntary policies restricting cars from city centres
- With a significant impact on car-owning households living in these areas
To go further:
 Are the explanative factors included into the HH typology sufficient
for the analysis? => need to discuss these factors
 How household adapt in regards of their constraints?
- which modal practice changes or housing relocations between 1995 and 2006?
- with which consequences?
 gentrification et loss of social diversity,
 continuing urban sprawl for some household categories
Conclusion: oil cost is just one parameter among others

28. Thank you for your attention
Transport costs, oil
vulnerability and urban form
in French metropolitan areas
Lessons from the Local French
Household Travel Surveys
Jean-Pierre Nicolas