Vistage butler ceo economic summit august 2012 handout

Vistage/Butler CEO
Economic Summit
August 2012

Make Your Move

Alan Beaulieu
ITR Economics™

www.itreconomics.com

Results for 2011 2

Duration Forecast Actual
GDP 18 $13.525 $13.332  (‐1.4%)
US Ind Prod. 11 93.1    (12MMA) 93.8         ( 0.8%)
EU Ind. Prod. 11 101.1  (12MMA) 101.2       ( 0.1%)
CA Ind. Prod. 21 96.6 *   4.1% 96.0           ( 0.6%)
Retail Sales 18 $2.116 Trillion $2.106     (‐0.5%)
Housing 17 579      Ths Units 607           ( 4.8%)
Employment 20 141.1    million 139.9        (‐0.9%)
CPI 17 2.9% 3.2%

* End of year 12‐month index estimate


US, Indiana and the Great Lakes
Annual GSP Growth Rate 3

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8
'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
U.S. Indiana Great Lakes


US Industrial Production to
Gross Domestic Product 4

12 12

8 8

4.7%
4 4

0 0

-4 -4

-8 -8
‐3.1%
‐5.3%
-12 ‐7.1% -12
GDP US IP
‐14.6%
-16 -16
'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

Year‐over‐year
Quarter to Quarter
(3/12) www.itreconomics.com

Recovery 5

• Leading indicators pointing up
• Liquidity is not an issue
• Exports are up
• Stimulative monetary policy
• Employment rising (companies right‐sized)
• Banks are lending
• Retail Sales


6


Recession in 2012 7

• Europe’s financial troubles might…
• China’s housing/inflation bubble could…
• Massive Pending Legislation becomes…
• Oil prices could break through $120 …
• USD could lose all credibility causing…


8

Federal Reserve Act of 1913 32 pages
Glass-Steagall Act 37
Dodd-Frank 848
Not rules, but instructions on how to create more
regulations and bureaucracies

Source: The Economist


Total U.S. Public Debt 9

140 140

120.0
120 120

100 100

80 80

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

(% of GDP)

10


Phase 1 – Data Preparation 11

Raw 3MMT 3/12 12MMT 12/12
Jan‐10 1.4
Feb‐10 1.5
Mar‐10 1.5 4.4 3/12 Rate‐of‐Change
Apr‐10 1.4 4.4
May‐10 1.5 4.4
Jun‐10 1.3 4.2 =
100 100
Jul‐10 1.3 4.2
Aug‐10 1.6 4.3
.
Sep‐10 1.6 4.6 = .
100 100 10.5%
Oct‐10 1.5 4.8
Nov‐10 1.7 4.8
Dec‐10 1.6 4.8 18.0
Jan‐11 1.7 4.9 18.3
Feb‐11 1.7 4.9 18.5 12/12 Rate‐of‐Change
Mar‐11 1.7 5.0 14.1% 18.6
Apr‐11 1.6 5.0 13.6% 18.8

May‐11 1.7 5.0 13.2%
15.1%
19.0 =
100 100
Jun‐11 1.5 4.9 19.2
Jul‐11 1.5 4.7 13.5% 19.4
Aug‐11 1.9 4.9 14.1% 19.6 .
Sep‐11 1.7 5.1 11.3% 19.8 = .
100 100 12.7%
Oct‐11 1.7 5.3 11.5% 20.0
Nov‐11 1.9 5.3 10.1% 20.1
Dec‐11 1.7 5.3 10.5% 20.3 12.7%


Phase 2 – Accumulate the Inputs 12

Sales Indicator
60 15

40 10

20 5

0 0

‐20 ‐5
Sales
Indicator
‐40 ‐10
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14


Phase 3 – Generate the Quantitative Forecast 13

Internal Trends Leading Economic Indicators

ITR Long Term Business Cycle Theory News and Market Observations


Output ‐ Deliverables 14

Applicable Advice Accurate Forecasts


US Industrial Production Growth 15

10 10

5 5

0 0

-5 -5

-10 -10

-15 -15
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

12/12 annual growth rate

Real Gross Domestic Product 16

14.5 14.5

14.0 14.0

13.5 13.5

13.0 13.0

12.5 12.5

12.0 12.0

11.5 11.5

11.0 11.0

10.5 10.5
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

3‐Month Moving Average


Global Industrial Production Indices 17

20 20
4.1 US
3.7 Mexico
10 2.1 SE Asia 10

1.6 Japan
0.9 Europe
0 0
-1.6 Brazil

-10 -10

-20 -20

-30 -30
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16

12/12 Rates‐of‐Change


2011 Exports from Indiana to the World 18

336‐‐TRANSPORTATION
EQUIPMENT 16.5%
325‐‐CHEMICALS 5.1%
5.6%
333‐‐MACHINERY, EXCEPT
ELECTRICAL 6.0% 29.4%
331‐‐PRIMARY METAL MFG
12.7%
339‐‐MISCELLANEOUS
MANUFACTURED
COMMODITIES
334‐‐COMPUTER AND 24.7%
ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS

All Others

Billions of USD


Unemployment Rates 19

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
U.S. IN


Employment – Private Sector 20

120 120

115 115

110 110

105 105

100 100

95 95

90 90

Employment Mils of Jobs
85 85
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

Annual Data Trend

Nation to Indianapolis 21

Industry Marion County, Indiana
Base Industry: Total, all industries 1
Natural resources and mining 0.08
Construction 0.98
Manufacturing 1.07
Trade, transportation, and utilities 0.99
Information 0.84
Financial activities 1.15
Professional and business services 1.09
Education and health services 1.06
Leisure and hospitality 0.88
Other services 0.93
Unclassified 0
Location Quotient: Private employment compared to a base region. The comparison is to the share of jobs, not to the simple number
of jobs. E.g. 1.29 means that the city/state has a 29% great concentration of a particular job than is found in the base region.

Location Quotients calculated from Quarterly Census
of Employment and Wages Data


Indiana Construction Industry Employment
22

R-O-C MMA
16 370

3/12 330
8 12/12 7.2
5.9
290
0

250
-8
210

-16 3MMA
12MMA
170

-24
124.208 130

-32 90
'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

Thousands of Units


Indianapolis ‐ Carmel
Construction Industry Employment 23

R-O-C MMA
20 130
3/12
16.3
12/12
10 12.2 110

0 90

-10 70
3MMA 12MMA

-20 50
42.733
-30 30

-40 10
'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

Thousands of Units


Commercial & Industrial Loans
at Commercial Banks 24

25 25

20 20

15
10.7% 15

10 10

5 5

0 0

-5 -5

-10 -10

-15 3/12 -15
12/12
-20 -20
'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

Rates‐of‐Change

Delinquency Rates for C&I Loans 25

160 160

120 120

80 80

40 40

0 0

-36.9%
-40 -42.4% -40
3/12
12/12
-80 -80
'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14
3/12 & 12/12 Rates‐of‐Change


Delinquency Rates on Consumer Loans 26

Percentage Percentage
7.0 7.0

6.5 6.5

6.0 6.0

5.5 5.5

5.0 10 Year Average 5.0

4.5 4.5

4.0 4.0
10 Year Average

3.5 3.5

3.0 3.0

2.5 Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate 2.5
Consumer Credit Card Delinquency Rate
2.0 2.0
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

3MMA Data Trends


Copper Futures Prices 27

500 500

400 400

300 300

200 200

100 100

Raw
12MMA
0 0
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14
Cents per Pound,
Data Trends

Crude Oil Futures Prices 28

150 150

125 125

100 100
95.09
84.96
75 75

RAW
50 50
12MMA

25 25

0 0
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

Light & Sweet $ per Barrel,
Data Trends

29

60% 60%
58% 57%
52%
49%
45%


Inflation US and the Midwest 30

106

105

104

103

102

101

100

99

98

97
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14
U.S. Midwest


Trends 10 31

Wholesale Trade Financial

New Orders Retail
Nonresidential Foreign
Medical Housing
Construction
Production
0 0

Soft Landing
Soft Landing
Prices

Hard Landing


Chemicals & Products Production 32

US IP Chemicals
12 12

8 8

4 4

0 0

-4 -4

-8 -8

-12 US IP -12
Chemicals
-16 -16
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14


Information Technology New Orders 33

Index Orders
12 30

8 20

4 10

0 0

-4 -10

-8 -20

-12 Index -30
Orders
-16 -40
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14


Foods Production 34

US IP Production
12 9

8 6

4 3

0 0

-4 -3

-8 -6

-12 -9
US IP
Food Production
-16 -12
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


US Industrial Production Index to
Fabricated Metal Products Production 35

US IP Metal
12 30

8 20

4 10

0 0

-4 -10

-8 -20

-12 -30
US IP
Metal Production
-16 -40
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


Plastics Products Production 36

US IP Plastics
12 12

6 6

0 0

-6 -6

-12 -12
US IP
Plastics
-18 -18
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14


US Industrial Production to Tourism 37

US IP Tourism
12 12

8 8

4 4

0 0

-4 -4

-8 -8

-12 -12
US IP
Tourism
-16 -16
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14


Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders w/o Aircraft 38

R-O-C MMT
40 1600

Feb '11
20 3/12 12/12 1400

7.8
0
3.3 1200

-20 1000
Oct '09

Jul '08

-40 800
$782.5
12MMT

-60 3MMT 600
Nov '09

-80 400
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14
Billions of $


ITR Leading Indicator 39

USIP US Industrial Production to indicator 9 Indicator
21 21

14 14

7 7

0 0

‐7 ‐7

USIP
Correlation: 0.86
Indicator
‐14 ‐14
'78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16

USIP – 12/12
Indicator ‐ Monthly

University of Michigan Consumer
Expectations Index 40

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10
9.5
0 0
-3.6
-10 -10

-20 -20

12/12
-30 -30
3/12
-40 -40
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

12/12 Rate‐of‐Change


Chicago Fed National Activity Index 41

0.9 0.9

0.1 0.1

-0.3
-0.7 -0.7

-1.5 -1.5

-2.3 -2.3

-3.1 -3.1

-3.9 -3.9
3MMA

-4.7 -4.7
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

3 Month Moving Average


Purchasing Managers Index 42

70 70

65 65

60 60

55 55

50 50

45 45

40 40

35 35
Raw
30 30
'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

Raw Data


US Leading Indicator 43

120 120

100 100

94.7

80 80

Actual
12MMA
60 60
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14


Stock Prices Index 44

1600 1600

1400 1400

1200 1200

1000 1000

800 800

600 600

400 400

200 Raw 200
12MMA
0 0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Data Trends

Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles 45

R-O-C MMT
14 Avg household income of $97.1 4.75
Nation: $122.4 Southwest: $119.4
12/12 3/12
7 4.00

2.4
2.4
0 3.25

Retail Vacancy Rate 20.1% Jul '09
-7 Net Absorption – pos 2.50
Expect increases in rents Nov '07
12MMT $2.109
3MMT
-14 Jan '10 1.75

-21 1.00
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

Trillions of 82‐84$

Legal Services Expenditures to
Retail Sales excluding Autos 46

Legal Retail Sales
12 12

9 9

6 6

3 3

0 0

-3 -3
Legal Services
Retail Sales
-6 -6
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14


Recreation to Retail Sales
excluding Autos (not Deflated) 47

Retail Sales Recreation
12 30

8 20

4 10

0 0

-4 -10
Retail Sales
Recreation
-8 -20
'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14


Retail Sales Excluding Autos to
Beer, Wine, & Liquor Stores 48

Stores Sales
12 8

9 6

6 4

3 2

0 0

-3 -2

-6 Liquor Stores -4

Retail Sales
-9 -6
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14


Housing Starts 49

R-O-C MMT
30 4.2
3/12 27.6
12/12
15 15.5 3.7

0 3.2

-15 2.7

-30 12MMT 2.2
3MMT

-45 1.7

-60 1.2

-75 0.653 0.7

-90 0.2
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

Millions of Units


Indiana Housing Price Index 50

200 200

175 175

150 150

125 125

Raw
100 100
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

Year over Year % Change

Indianapolis Building Permits 51

R-O-C MMT
60 60
3/12

32.3
30 50
12/12

4.8
0 40

-30 30

3MMT
12MMT
-60 20

-90 10

5.019
-120 0
'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

Thousands of Units

US to Indianapolis Median Home Sale Prices 52

US Indianapolis
240 240

210 210

180 180

$165.7
150 150

120 $123.2 120

90 90
US Median
Indianapolis Median
60 60
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Annual Data Trends


Private Non‐Residential Construction 53

Construction US IP
30 12

20 8

10 4

0 0

-10 -4

-20 -8

-30 Private Construction -12

US IP
-40 -16
'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14


Office Buildings Construction 54

R-O-C MMT
50 115
12/12
3/12
25 100
10.6
0
3.2 85

-25 70

12MMT
-50 55

-75 3MMT 40

-100 25
23.5

-125 10
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

Billions of $

Commercial Buildings Construction 55

R-O-C MMT
30 190
3/12 Jan '08
12/12 16.9
15 14.3 170

0 150

-15 130

-30 110
Apr '08
-45 Apr '10 90
12MMT
-60 3MMT 70

-75 50
42.4
-90 30
Apr '11

-105 10
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

Billions of $

Power Construction 56

R-O-C MMT
100 185
Feb '08
3/12
50 160
12/12 37.2
0
10.7 135
Oct ‘10

-50 110
Dec '09

-100 85.1 85

-150 Oct ‘10 60
3MMT

12MMT
-200 35

-250 10
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

Billions of $

Hospital Buildings Construction 57

R-O-C MMT
40 3/12 75

20 12/12 65
Jan '09

0 55
-0.6
-1.3
-20 Jun '09 45

-40 35
Jun '09

-60 25.6 25
12MMT
3MMT
-80 15

Nov '98
-100 5
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14
Billions of $


Private Educational Buildings Construction 58

R-O-C 3/12 MMT
45 44
12/12

30 32.2 39
22.2
15 34

0 29

-15 24

-30 19

15.9
-45 12MMT 14
3MMT

-60 9

-75 4
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

Billions of $

Public Educational Buildings Construction 59

R-O-C MMT
40 185
3/12
12/12
20 160

0 135
-4.1
-4.6
-20 110

-40 85

69.5
-60 12MMT
60
3MMT

-80 35

-100 10
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

Billions of $

Total State & Local
Government Construction 60

R-O-C MMT
30 570
3/12
Nov '07
15 12/12 500

0 430
-2.7
Aug '10 -5.7
-15 Jul '09 360

-30 290

251.1
-45 3MMT 220
12MMT

-60 150

-75 80
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14

Billions of $

Four Phases 61

Expansion

B C B C

0 0

A
D
A D

Recession


Phase Management ObjectivesTM 62

Phase Late C ‐ Early B
1. Positive leadership modeling (culture turns to
behavior)
2. Add Sales Staff and Hire Top People
3. Training programs
4. Lock in costs
5. Invest in customer market research (know what
they value)
6. Judiciously expand credit
7. Check distributions systems for readiness to
accommodate increased activity
8. Review and uncover competitive advantages
9. Improve efficiencies with investment in
technology and software
10.Spend $ on new products, marketing, advertising
11.Work on “what’s next”


63

Find a way to business in the “counter‐cyclical”
or largely unaffected areas:
Energy Food
Green Pets
Water Funeral Services
Canada/Exports Alcohol
Higher Education Security
Health Care Practices Legal Services
(Diversified)


7 Must Watch Items 64

Money Supply
Corporate Bonds Rate‐of‐Change
US Leading Indicator
Purchasing Managers Index
Retail Sales
Employment
Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders
Available from ITR via ITR Trends Report,
the ITR Advisor, or on the web


The Road Ahead
(actual results may vary…stay tuned!) 65

2011 Slower rate of recovery
2012 Ongoing recovery
2013 Flattens out; recession begins
2014 Recession
2015 Growth
2016 Growth
2017 Growth


Continue Your Quest in Seeing Tomorrow Today
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Vistage butler ceo economic summit august 2012 handout

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