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Housing And Labor Market Trends:Nevada

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Understanding the Foreclosure Crisis in Nevada. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

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Housing And Labor Market Trends:Nevada

  1. 1. HOUSING AND LABORMARKET TRENDS: NEVADA May 2011Community Development ResearchFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
  2. 2. National Trends
  3. 3. Unemployment dips below 9% U.S. Unemployment Rate 12 10 Unemployment Rate 8 6 4 2 0 RecessionSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 2010
  4. 4. Recovery, particularly in labor market, remains elusive Months Since Start of Recession to Employment Recovery 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 0% 1980 1974 1981 1990 Percent Decline in Employment from Peak -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% 2007 -6% -7%Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2010
  5. 5. Case-Shiller Index shows continued softness in housing market Case-Shiller National House Price Index (2000 = 100, Quarterly) 200 180 160 140 120 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Source: Case - Shiller Home Price Index
  6. 6. FHFA House Price Index Dips Again at End of 2010 FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index 170 (2000=100, quarterly) 160 150FHFA House Price Index 140 2000=100 130 120 110 100 90 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO), includes refinancing and is not seasonally adjusted
  7. 7. Nationally, delinquencies drop in 2010, but still more than 4.5 million homes in distress 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 Number of Mortgages 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 All Mortgages Past Due Loans in ForeclosureSource: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey
  8. 8. Despite improvement, high rates of delinquency remain concentrated in western and southern statesSource: Lender Processing Service Inc. Applied Analytics, November 2010
  9. 9. HAMP modifications down; borrowers still face challenges in obtaining permanent modifications 120,000 100,000 80,000 Modifications 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 February March April May June July August September October November December January 2011 New HAMP Trials Started New Permanent Modifications StartedSource: HAMP Service Performance Report Through January 2011
  10. 10. Composition of distressed sales70.0%60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0% Arizona California Florida Industrial Pacific NW South Northeast Rocky and Midwest Mountain Nevada Damaged REO Move-In Ready REO Short Sale Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions, Feb 2011
  11. 11. Neighborhood stabilization: concerns overinvestor purchases of distressed properties Who Is Buying Properties?─February 2011 100% 90% 80% 70% InvestorPercent of Property Type 60% 50% First-Time 40% Homebuyer 30% Current 20% Homeowner 10% 0% Damaged Move-In Ready Short Sale Non-Distressed REO REO Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions, Feb 2011
  12. 12. Financing for home purchases 100% 90% 16% 18% All Other 28% Financing 80% 5% 5% 2% 14% VA Percent of Buyer-Side Transactions 70% 4% 60% 19% Fannie/Freddie 50% 40% 20% 55% 75% FHA 30% 20% 30% Cash 10% 11% 0% Current First-Time Investors Homeowners HomebuyersSource: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions, Feb 2011
  13. 13. Many states within 12th District face severe budget shortfalls Total End-of-Year Shortfall as Percentage of 2010 BudgetSource: Data from Center for Budget and Policy Priorities
  14. 14. Nevada Trends
  15. 15. Unemployment rate in Nevada falls below14%, still highest in country 16 14 12 Unemployment Rate 10 8 United States 6 4 Nevada 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 RecessionSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  16. 16. Unemployment in Nevada by countySource: Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2011
  17. 17. Nevada house prices falling to 2003 levels FHFA House Price Index (formerly OFHEO) (2000 = 100, quarterly) 230 Nevada 210FHFA House Price Index 190 2000=100 170 United States 150 130 110 90 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)
  18. 18. Las Vegas house price index down to 2001 levels FHFA House Price Index (formerly OFHEO) (2000 = 100, quarterly) 230 210FHFA House Price Index 190 2000=100 170 Carson City 150 130 Reno 110 Las Vegas 90 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)
  19. 19. The number of distressed properties – delinquent and in foreclosure – continues downward trend 120,000 100,000 80,000 Number of Mortgages 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Loans in Foreclosure All Mortgages Past DueSource: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey
  20. 20. Maps
  21. 21. Las Vegas Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures February 2011 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
  22. 22. Las Vegas Data Maps Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures February 2011 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
  23. 23. Las Vegas Data Maps Change in House Values Since 2007 February 2011 Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index and FRBSF CD Calculations
  24. 24. Reno Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures February 2011 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
  25. 25. Reno Data Maps Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures February 2011 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
  26. 26. Reno Data Maps Change in House Values Since 2007 February 2011 Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index and FRBSF CD Calculations
  27. 27. Conclusions
  28. 28. For More Information:FRBSF Community Development Website Links to other resources and research on foreclosure trends and mitigation strategies All publications, presentations available on our website Conference materials also posted shortly after events http://www.frbsf.org/community/

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