Time series analysis

• Nishi aggarwal
• Raman mangla
• Parth kansal
• Aashi
• Shivam dhawan
• Samarth goyal
• Abhishek rawat
• Neha jalan

• I WOULD LIKE TO THANK DR. VANDANA SARIN WALIA FOR
PROVIDING OUR TEAM A WONDERFUL OPPORTUNITY TO
APPLY THE KNOWLEDGE , IN PRACTICAL TERMS .
THROUGH THIS PROJECT WE WERE ABLE TO GET THE
ABSOLUTE PRACTICAL IDEA .
WITH HER HELP AND CONTINOUS GUIDENCE WE WERE ABLE
TO COMPLETE THIS PROJECT,
WE HOPE THAT WE ARE ABLE TO MAKE THIS PROJECT UPTO
HER EXPECTATIONS .
THANK YOU !

A time series is a sequence of DATA
POINTS, measured typically at successive
points in time spaced at uniform time
intervals.
 Time series analysis comprises methods for
analyzing time series data in order to extract
meaningful statistics and other characteristics of
the data.
 Examples of data could be: stock market prices,
currency values, item prices, daily temperatures,
weekly rainfall, population growth ETC.

COMPONENTS OF TIME SERIES
• RANDOM• CYCLICAL
• TREND• SEASONAL
ANALYSIS OF
SERIESTIME

MONT
HS 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
JAN
97.861
1598
102.46
2175
108.71
2753
102.89
9106
112.91
5022
104.21
599
128.20
5549
123.21
29685
93.294
27368
100.03
885
100.54
11201
111.20
8917
102.77
92365
107.46
66035
101.48
0888
96.416
92951
98.936
8017
101.77
97778
FEB
104.05
7193
95.791
333
109.14
4706
96.789
4195
92.745
7724
116.69
1027
102.45
8813
92.310
7854
115.70
16164
115.97
20052
96.670
78553
105.61
16624
101.88
2193
97.901
36545
90.115
30764
120.46
66422
106.57
8335
109.27
29624
102.36
07515
MAR
109.18
8206
103.16
9179
103.46
0856
108.82
9864
92.456
5036
136.26
0039
129.85
1304
125.36
3323
112.47
45804
149.39
65192
98.466
14564
96.379
27348
117.32
4576
110.51
45735
97.262
60455
96.325
25764
103.07
33073
110.80
0654
104.82
27466
APR
111.46
7358
107.52
3474
108.68
5963
101.70
5941
112.80
5
113.50
192
98.107
838
110.55
6573
91.890
61965
105.94
28705
98.945
42937
105.48
47536
100.23
96874
106.78
47235
104.19
07575
103.34
68631
102.53
18664
107.97
1589
104.79
88516
MAY
98.354
7344
104.20
0004
101.10
8533
99.353
67
121.78
7312
116.61
3733
109.72
9608
97.857
1429
101.61
01616
93.251
7426
99.982
50722
103.62
21724
106.80
62445
98.200
15036
106.02
97769
94.941
939
91.850
67263
107.80
42611
98.593
67805
JUN
107.49
1011
93.535
968
101.96
9916
109.04
6708
103.76
3807
113.10
2922
99.993
7058
105.02
7737
105.50
78774
85.306
84141
83.210
23757
105.46
88557
107.34
16357
91.880
57282
113.89
57628
109.56
34916
126.05
48007
109.52
11966
99.949
69939
JUL
94.347
5539
117.22
5696
118.64
9883
95.010
734
94.206
1948
115.93
8644
102.83
2549
104.19
9099
107.96
68122
80.100
35413
110.29
6768
122.14
59576
101.22
02795
87.653
77641
108.41
94228
106.01
92056
106.54
93933
96.853
97141
93.826
68712
AUG
99.962
0817
110.86
5179
93.345
3668
106.97
1995
97.645
4776
81.477
5583
97.571
4264
105.80
9378
94.106
701
101.16
33653
113.13
18083
107.75
94356
79.056
91875
116.90
47752
87.478
59737
97.660
46358
95.589
85776
106.20
56848
98.100
99101
SEP
100.22
1906
95.734
1079
98.472
7703
95.834
3489
92.962
3777
73.611
3589
98.287
3275
98.712
8089
96.334
93304
98.894
90362
105.75
201
83.843
29843
81.633
60869
123.27
66146
91.882
94875
125.93
82608
103.14
30662
94.030
11396
100.37
23134
OCT
89.644
6009
90.192
4588
86.763
1147
109.77
8531
104.14
8502
73.350
7636
98.021
3187
106.78
9359
102.20
79219
108.82
60817
117.91
08385
94.409
13759
98.469
64728
111.80
07663
103.77
03587
86.422
74926
97.997
78197
89.063
33726
94.957
39465
NOV
100.27
2324
84.094
2712
98.900
6928
65.709
7627
95.885
1095
110.00
1652
77.619
3267
79.050
4096
77.653
06122
107.89
92566
89.876
44788
107.30
52098
93.791
1478
100.15
61673
75.792
58414
66.006
58468
86.337
36045
76.810
46066
98.049
58
DEC
91.345
0809
85.049
8819
89.650
6632
99.618
0627
84.846
6544
91.364
8069
89.505
0336
88.194
8017
95.916
62706
96.576
58067
85.144
77189
88.540
69045
89.263
36513
87.800
69473
87.920
08259
111.16
11531
89.519
86208
96.603
13316
107.15
44987

GRAPH
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Sep-95
Apr-96
Nov-96
Jun-97
Jan-98
Aug-98
Mar-99
Oct-99
May-00
Dec-00
Jul-01
Feb-02
Sep-02
Apr-03
Nov-03
Jun-04
Jan-05
Aug-05
Mar-06
Oct-06
May-07
Dec-07
Jul-08
Feb-09
Sep-09
Apr-10
Nov-10
Jun-11
Jan-12
Aug-12
Mar-13
Oct-13
May-14
Dec-14
Jul-15
Prices of Oranges
Prices of Oranges

SECULAR TREND
• The component responsible for the general
behaviour of time series is called trend
• It is a long term tendency of any particular activity to
grow or to decline.
• Trend may be upward or downward.
• Linear or non linear trend.
RANDOM COMPONENT
•Random, irregular, erratic in nature
•Cannot be foreseen
•No reasons , no causes can be attributed
•Causes- strikes,fire,femines etc

PERIODIC COMPONENT
PERODIC MOVEMENT
RECCUR AFTER A TIME
PERIOD OF LESS THAN
ONE YEAR
THE PERIOD OF
OSCCILATION IS MORE
THAN ONE YEAR
THE CYLCES CAN BE
OF DIFFERENT
INTENSITY AND
PERIODICITY

THERE ARE TWO TYPES OF MODELS
ADDITIVE MODEL
• This is used when the components are independent
• Yt = Tt + St + Ct + Rt
MULTIPLICATIVE MODEL
• This used when components are inter-dependent.
• Yt = Tt * St* Ct* Rt
• logYt = LogTt + LogSt + LogCt + LogRt

Advantages of ANALYSING TIME SERIES .
• Understanding the phenomenon under
consideration
• Gaining knowledge about the Past behaviour.
• Evaluate Current behaviour of the time series.
• Preparing and projecting the future of time
series.

METHODS FOR MEASURING TRENDS
 Free hand curve method
• Plot the given T.S on a graph taking a time variable t on X axis .
• Join the plotted points with dotted lines
• Draw a smooth line by the inspection of above graph
 Method of semi averages
• Divide the time series into equal halves with respect to time
• Calculate the average of each halve
• Semi averages are plotted against the mid points
• Join the two averages.

METHOD OF MOVING AVERAGES
 Moving average represents the central tendency of data in parts.
The extent of moving average is determined by the period of oscillation
whenever the oscillatory movement is regular or average of period of
oscillations when it is irregular.
 It is appropriate to use this method when
• Trend is approximately linear.
• Oscillatory movement is regular.

 METHOD OF FITTING MATHEMATICAL CURVES
There are many mathematical curves that can be fitted to a time series
data. An examination of the plotted data often provides an adequate
basis for deciding upon which type of trend to use.
The different types of curves are
• A straight line
• Second degree parabola
• Kth degree polynomial
• Exponential curves
• Growth curves
 Modified exponential curve
 Gompertz curve
 Logistic curve

Months yt log yt Δyt log10 yt Δ(log yt) Δ2(log yt) Δyt/Δyt-1 Δ(log yt)/Δ(log yt-1)
Sep-95 537.550 6.288 2.730
Oct-95 546.210 6.304 8.660 2.737 0.007 1.003
Nov-95 564.240 6.336 18.030 2.751 0.014 0.007 2.032 1.005
Dec-95 443.230 6.095 -121.010 2.647 -0.105 -0.119 -7.433 0.962

Jan-96 417.530 6.035 -25.700 2.621 -0.026 0.079 0.247 0.990
Feb-96 434.470 6.075 16.940 2.638 0.017 0.043 -0.666 1.007
Mar-96 474.390 6.163 39.920 2.676 0.038 0.021 2.210 1.014
Apr-96 528.790 6.271 54.400 2.723 0.047 0.009 1.235 1.018
May-96 520.090 6.255 -8.700 2.716 -0.007 -0.054 -0.153 0.997
Jun-96 559.050 6.327 38.960 2.747 0.031 0.039 -4.354 1.012
Jul-96 527.450 6.269 -31.600 2.722 -0.025 -0.057 -0.805 0.991
Aug-96 527.250 6.268 -0.200 2.722 0.000 0.025 0.007 1.000
Sep-96 528.420 6.271 1.170 2.723 0.001 0.001 -5.845 1.000
Oct-96 473.700 6.161 -54.720 2.676 -0.047 -0.048 -49.317 0.983
Nov-96 474.990 6.164 1.290 2.677 0.001 0.049 -0.025 1.000
Dec-96 433.880 6.073 -41.110 2.637 -0.039 -0.040 -33.287 0.985

Jan-97 424.600 6.052 -9.280 2.628 -0.009 0.030 0.239 0.996
Feb-97 406.730 6.009 -17.870 2.609 -0.019 -0.009 1.989 0.993
Mar-97 419.620 6.040 12.890 2.623 0.014 0.032 -0.726 1.005
Apr-97 451.190 6.113 31.570 2.654 0.032 0.018 2.325 1.012
May-97 470.140 6.154 18.950 2.672 0.018 -0.014 0.567 1.007
Jun-97 439.750 6.087 -30.390 2.643 -0.029 -0.047 -1.624 0.989
Jul-97 515.500 6.246 75.750 2.712 0.069 0.098 -2.378 1.026
Aug-97 571.510 6.349 56.010 2.757 0.045 -0.024 0.649 1.017
Sep-97 547.130 6.305 -24.380 2.738 -0.019 -0.064 -0.423 0.993
Oct-97 493.470 6.202 -53.660 2.693 -0.045 -0.026 2.368 0.984
Nov-97 414.980 6.029 -78.490 2.618 -0.075 -0.030 1.678 0.972
Dec-97 352.940 5.867 -62.040 2.548 -0.070 0.005 0.935 0.973

Jan-98 361.630 5.891 8.690 2.558 0.011 0.081 -0.150 1.004
Feb-98 394.700 5.979 33.070 2.596 0.038 0.027 3.598 1.015
Mar-98 408.360 6.013 13.660 2.611 0.015 -0.023 0.389 1.006
Apr-98 443.830 6.096 35.470 2.647 0.036 0.021 2.448 1.014
May-98 448.750 6.107 4.920 2.652 0.005 -0.031 0.132 1.002
Jun-98 457.590 6.127 8.840 2.660 0.008 0.004 1.770 1.003
Jul-98 542.930 6.298 85.340 2.735 0.074 0.066 8.766 1.028
Aug-98 506.800 6.229 -36.130 2.705 -0.030 -0.104 -0.403 0.989
Sep-98 499.060 6.213 -7.740 2.698 -0.007 0.023 0.223 0.998
Oct-98 433.000 6.071 -66.060 2.636 -0.062 -0.055 9.226 0.977
Nov-98 428.240 6.060 -4.760 2.632 -0.005 0.057 0.078 0.998
Dec-98 383.920 5.951 -44.320 2.584 -0.047 -0.043 9.883 0.982

Jan-99 417.370 6.035 33.450 2.621 0.036 0.084 -0.765 1.014
Feb-99 403.970 6.002 -13.400 2.606 -0.014 -0.050 -0.391 0.995
Mar-99 439.640 6.087 35.670 2.643 0.037 0.051 -2.593 1.014
Apr-99 447.140 6.104 7.500 2.650 0.007 -0.029 0.200 1.003
May-99 444.250 6.097 -2.890 2.648 -0.003 -0.010 -0.383 0.999
Jun-99 484.440 6.184 40.190 2.685 0.038 0.040 -13.356 1.014
Jul-99 460.270 6.132 -24.170 2.663 -0.022 -0.060 -0.591 0.992
Aug-99 492.360 6.200 32.090 2.692 0.029 0.051 -1.317 1.011
Sep-99 471.850 6.157 -20.510 2.674 -0.018 -0.048 -0.631 0.993
Oct-99 517.990 6.251 46.140 2.714 0.041 0.059 -2.193 1.015
Nov-99 340.370 5.831 -177.620 2.532 -0.182 -0.223 -4.501 0.933
Dec-99 339.070 5.827 -1.300 2.530 -0.002 0.181 0.009 0.999

Jan-00 348.900 5.855 9.830 2.543 0.012 0.014 -7.468 1.005
Feb-00 323.590 5.780 -25.310 2.510 -0.033 -0.045 -2.635 0.987
Mar-00 299.180 5.702 -24.410 2.476 -0.034 -0.001 1.041 0.986
Apr-00 337.490 5.822 38.310 2.528 0.052 0.086 -1.536 1.021
May-00 411.020 6.019 73.530 2.614 0.086 0.033 1.636 1.034
Jun-00 426.490 6.056 15.470 2.630 0.016 -0.070 0.187 1.006
Jul-00 401.780 5.997 -24.710 2.604 -0.026 -0.042 -1.615 0.990
Aug-00 392.320 5.973 -9.460 2.594 -0.010 0.016 0.399 0.996
Sep-00 364.710 5.900 -27.610 2.562 -0.032 -0.021 3.063 0.988
Oct-00 379.840 5.940 15.130 2.580 0.018 0.049 -0.557 1.007
Nov-00 364.210 5.898 -15.630 2.561 -0.018 -0.036 -1.034 0.993
Dec-00 309.020 5.734 -55.190 2.490 -0.071 -0.053 3.911 0.972

Jan-01 348.930 5.855 39.910 2.543 0.053 0.124 -0.739 1.021
Feb-01 407.170 6.010 58.240 2.610 0.067 0.014 1.271 1.026
Mar-01 554.810 6.319 147.640 2.744 0.134 0.067 2.004 1.051
Apr-01 629.720 6.446 74.910 2.799 0.055 -0.079 0.409 1.020
May-01 734.340 6.600 104.620 2.866 0.067 0.012 1.214 1.024
Jun-01 830.560 6.723 96.220 2.919 0.053 -0.013 0.801 1.019
Jul-01 962.940 6.871 132.380 2.984 0.064 0.011 1.201 1.022
Aug-01 784.580 6.666 -178.360 2.895 -0.089 -0.153 -1.385 0.970
Sep-01 577.540 6.359 -207.040 2.762 -0.133 -0.044 1.496 0.954
Oct-01 423.630 6.049 -153.910 2.627 -0.135 -0.002 1.012 0.951
Nov-01 466.000 6.145 42.370 2.668 0.041 0.176 -0.308 1.016
Dec-01 425.760 6.055 -40.240 2.629 -0.039 -0.081 -0.947 0.985

Jan-02 443.710 6.096 17.950 2.647 0.018 0.057 -0.457 1.007
Feb-02 454.620 6.120 10.910 2.658 0.011 -0.007 0.588 1.004
Mar-02 590.330 6.381 135.710 2.771 0.113 0.103 10.754 1.043
Apr-02 579.160 6.362 -11.170 2.763 -0.008 -0.122 -0.073 0.997
May-02 635.510 6.455 56.350 2.803 0.040 0.049 -4.860 1.015
Jun-02 635.470 6.455 -0.040 2.803 0.000 -0.040 -0.001 1.000
Jul-02 653.470 6.483 18.000 2.815 0.012 0.012 -443.759 1.004
Aug-02 637.600 6.458 -15.870 2.805 -0.011 -0.023 -0.880 0.996
Sep-02 626.680 6.441 -10.920 2.797 -0.008 0.003 0.703 0.997
Oct-02 614.280 6.421 -12.400 2.788 -0.009 -0.001 1.157 0.997
Nov-02 476.800 6.168 -137.480 2.678 -0.110 -0.101 12.677 0.961
Dec-02 426.760 6.057 -50.040 2.630 -0.048 0.062 0.438 0.982

Jan-03 547.130 6.305 120.370 2.738 0.108 0.156 -2.241 1.041
Feb-03 505.060 6.225 -42.070 2.703 -0.035 -0.143 -0.322 0.987
Mar-03 633.160 6.451 128.100 2.802 0.098 0.133 -2.825 1.036
Apr-03 700.000 6.552 66.840 2.845 0.044 -0.055 0.444 1.016
May-03 685.000 6.530 -15.000 2.836 -0.009 -0.053 -0.216 0.997
Jun-03 719.440 6.579 34.440 2.857 0.021 0.031 -2.265 1.008
Jul-03 749.650 6.620 30.210 2.875 0.018 -0.003 0.839 1.006
Aug-03 793.200 6.677 43.550 2.899 0.025 0.007 1.373 1.009
Sep-03 782.990 6.664 -10.210 2.894 -0.006 -0.030 -0.229 0.998
Oct-03 836.150 6.730 53.160 2.922 0.029 0.034 -5.070 1.010
Nov-03 660.980 6.494 -175.170 2.820 -0.102 -0.131 -3.579 0.965
Dec-03 582.950 6.369 -78.030 2.766 -0.055 0.048 0.534 0.981

Jan-04 718.270 6.578 135.320 2.856 0.091 0.145 -1.662 1.033
Feb-04 831.050 6.723 112.780 2.920 0.063 -0.027 0.699 1.022
Mar-04 934.720 6.841 103.670 2.971 0.051 -0.012 0.806 1.017
Apr-04 858.920 6.756 -75.800 2.934 -0.037 -0.088 -0.719 0.988
May-04 872.750 6.772 13.830 2.941 0.007 0.044 -0.189 1.002
Jun-04 920.820 6.826 48.070 2.964 0.023 0.016 3.357 1.008
Jul-04 994.180 6.903 73.360 2.997 0.033 0.010 1.430 1.011
Aug-04 935.590 6.842 -58.590 2.971 -0.026 -0.060 -0.792 0.991
Sep-04 901.300 6.805 -34.290 2.955 -0.016 0.010 0.615 0.995
Oct-04 921.200 6.826 19.900 2.964 0.009 0.026 -0.585 1.003
Nov-04 715.340 6.573 -205.860 2.855 -0.110 -0.119 -11.581 0.963
Dec-04 686.130 6.532 -29.210 2.836 -0.018 0.092 0.165 0.994

Jan-05 640.120 6.462 -46.010 2.806 -0.030 -0.012 1.665 0.989
Feb-05 742.360 6.611 102.240 2.871 0.064 0.094 -2.135 1.023
Mar-05 1109.060 7.012 366.700 3.045 0.174 0.110 2.709 1.061
Apr-05 1174.970 7.070 65.910 3.070 0.025 -0.149 0.144 1.008
May-05 1095.680 7.000 -79.290 3.040 -0.030 -0.055 -1.210 0.990
Jun-05 934.690 6.841 -160.990 2.971 -0.069 -0.039 2.275 0.977
Jul-05 748.690 6.619 -186.000 2.874 -0.096 -0.027 1.396 0.968
Aug-05 757.400 6.631 8.710 2.879 0.005 0.101 -0.052 1.002
Sep-05 749.030 6.619 -8.370 2.874 -0.005 -0.010 -0.961 0.998
Oct-05 815.140 6.704 66.110 2.911 0.037 0.042 -7.611 1.013
Nov-05 879.530 6.780 64.390 2.944 0.033 -0.004 0.899 1.011
Dec-05 849.420 6.745 -30.110 2.929 -0.015 -0.048 -0.458 0.995

Jan-06 849.750 6.746 0.330 2.929 0.000 0.015 -0.011 1.000
Feb-06 821.460 6.712 -28.290 2.915 -0.015 -0.015 -87.170 0.995
Mar-06 808.860 6.696 -12.600 2.908 -0.007 0.008 0.457 0.998
Apr-06 800.330 6.686 -8.530 2.903 -0.005 0.002 0.686 0.998
May-06 800.190 6.686 -0.140 2.903 0.000 0.005 0.017 1.000
Jun-06 665.840 6.502 -134.350 2.823 -0.080 -0.080 1050.626 0.973
Jul-06 734.400 6.600 68.560 2.866 0.043 0.122 -0.533 1.015
Aug-06 830.840 6.723 96.440 2.920 0.054 0.011 1.259 1.019
Sep-06 878.630 6.779 47.790 2.944 0.024 -0.029 0.453 1.008
Oct-06 1036.000 6.944 157.370 3.015 0.072 0.047 2.946 1.024
Nov-06 931.120 6.837 -104.880 2.969 -0.046 -0.118 -0.648 0.985
Dec-06 792.800 6.676 -138.320 2.899 -0.070 -0.023 1.507 0.976

Jan-07 797.090 6.682 4.290 2.902 0.002 0.072 -0.034 1.001
Feb-07 841.820 6.736 44.730 2.925 0.024 0.021 10.117 1.008
Mar-07 811.340 6.699 -30.480 2.909 -0.016 -0.040 -0.675 0.995
Apr-07 855.840 6.753 44.500 2.932 0.023 0.039 -1.448 1.008
May-07 886.840 6.788 31.000 2.948 0.015 -0.008 0.666 1.005
Jun-07 935.340 6.842 48.500 2.971 0.023 0.008 1.496 1.008
Jul-07 1142.480 7.042 207.140 3.058 0.087 0.064 3.757 1.029
Aug-07 1231.130 7.116 88.650 3.090 0.032 -0.054 0.374 1.011
Sep-07 1032.220 6.940 -198.910 3.014 -0.077 -0.109 -2.358 0.975
Oct-07 974.510 6.883 -57.710 2.989 -0.025 0.052 0.326 0.992
Nov-07 1045.700 6.953 71.190 3.019 0.031 0.056 -1.226 1.010
Dec-07 925.870 6.831 -119.830 2.967 -0.053 -0.083 -1.726 0.982

Jan-08 1029.650 6.938 103.780 3.013 0.046 0.099 -0.873 1.016
Feb-08 1049.030 6.956 19.380 3.021 0.008 -0.038 0.176 1.003
Mar-08 1230.770 7.116 181.740 3.090 0.069 0.061 8.568 1.023
Apr-08 1233.720 7.119 2.950 3.091 0.001 -0.068 0.015 1.000
May-08 1317.690 7.184 83.970 3.120 0.029 0.028 27.505 1.009
Jun-08 1414.430 7.255 96.740 3.151 0.031 0.002 1.076 1.010
Jul-08 1431.690 7.267 17.260 3.156 0.005 -0.026 0.171 1.002
Aug-08 1131.850 7.032 -299.840 3.054 -0.102 -0.107 -19.375 0.968
Sep-08 923.970 6.829 -207.880 2.966 -0.088 0.014 0.864 0.971
Oct-08 909.830 6.814 -14.140 2.959 -0.007 0.081 0.076 0.998
Nov-08 853.340 6.750 -56.490 2.931 -0.028 -0.021 4.156 0.991
Dec-08 761.720 6.636 -91.620 2.882 -0.049 -0.021 1.772 0.983

Jan-09 782.890 6.664 21.170 2.894 0.012 0.061 -0.241 1.004
Feb-09 766.460 6.642 -16.430 2.884 -0.009 -0.021 -0.774 0.997
Mar-09 847.050 6.742 80.590 2.928 0.043 0.053 -4.714 1.015
Apr-09 904.520 6.808 57.470 2.956 0.029 -0.015 0.657 1.010
May-09 888.240 6.790 -16.280 2.949 -0.008 -0.036 -0.277 0.997
Jun-09 816.120 6.705 -72.120 2.912 -0.037 -0.029 4.662 0.988
Jul-09 715.360 6.573 -100.760 2.855 -0.057 -0.020 1.556 0.980
Aug-09 836.290 6.730 120.930 2.922 0.068 0.125 -1.185 1.024
Sep-09 1030.950 6.939 194.660 3.013 0.091 0.023 1.340 1.031
Oct-09 1152.610 7.051 121.660 3.062 0.048 -0.042 0.533 1.016
Nov-09 1154.410 7.052 1.800 3.062 0.001 -0.048 0.014 1.000
Dec-09 1013.580 6.922 -140.830 3.006 -0.057 -0.057 -83.374 0.982

Jan-10 1089.260 6.994 75.680 3.037 0.031 0.088 -0.553 1.010
Feb-10 981.590 6.890 -107.670 2.992 -0.045 -0.076 -1.445 0.985
Mar-10 954.720 6.862 -26.870 2.980 -0.012 0.033 0.267 0.996
Apr-10 994.730 6.903 40.010 2.998 0.018 0.030 -1.479 1.006
May-10 1054.710 6.962 59.980 3.023 0.025 0.008 1.426 1.008
Jun-10 1201.270 7.092 146.560 3.080 0.057 0.031 2.222 1.019
Jul-10 1302.410 7.173 101.140 3.115 0.035 -0.021 0.621 1.011
Aug-10 1139.330 7.039 -163.080 3.057 -0.058 -0.093 -1.655 0.981
Sep-10 1046.850 6.954 -92.480 3.020 -0.037 0.021 0.633 0.988
Oct-10 1086.320 6.991 39.470 3.036 0.016 0.053 -0.437 1.005
Nov-10 823.350 6.714 -262.970 2.916 -0.120 -0.136 -7.489 0.960
Dec-10 723.890 6.585 -99.460 2.860 -0.056 0.064 0.464 0.981

Jan-11 734.610 6.600 10.720 2.866 0.006 0.062 -0.114 1.002
Feb-11 884.960 6.786 150.350 2.947 0.081 0.074 12.667 1.028
Mar-11 852.440 6.749 -32.520 2.931 -0.016 -0.097 -0.201 0.994
Apr-11 880.970 6.782 28.530 2.945 0.014 0.031 -0.879 1.005
May-11 836.410 6.730 -44.560 2.922 -0.023 -0.037 -1.577 0.992
Jun-11 916.400 6.821 79.990 2.962 0.040 0.062 -1.760 1.014
Jul-11 971.560 6.880 55.160 2.987 0.025 -0.014 0.640 1.009
Aug-11 948.830 6.856 -22.730 2.977 -0.010 -0.036 -0.405 0.997
Sep-11 1194.940 7.087 246.110 3.077 0.100 0.110 -9.742 1.034
Oct-11 1032.700 6.941 -162.240 3.014 -0.063 -0.164 -0.633 0.979
Nov-11 681.650 6.525 -351.050 2.834 -0.180 -0.117 2.847 0.940
Dec-11 757.730 6.631 76.080 2.880 0.046 0.226 -0.255 1.016

Jan-12 730.580 6.595 -27.150 2.864 -0.016 -0.062 -0.345 0.994
Feb-12 778.640 6.658 48.060 2.891 0.028 0.044 -1.746 1.010
Mar-12 802.570 6.689 23.930 2.904 0.013 -0.015 0.475 1.005
Apr-12 822.890 6.714 20.320 2.915 0.011 -0.002 0.826 1.004
May-12 755.830 6.629 -67.060 2.878 -0.037 -0.048 -3.400 0.987
Jun-12 952.760 6.860 196.930 2.979 0.101 0.137 -2.724 1.035
Jul-12 1015.160 6.924 62.400 3.007 0.028 -0.073 0.274 1.009
Aug-12 970.390 6.878 -44.770 2.987 -0.020 -0.047 -0.711 0.993
Sep-12 1000.890 6.909 30.500 3.000 0.013 0.033 -0.686 1.004
Oct-12 980.850 6.889 -20.040 2.992 -0.009 -0.022 -0.654 0.997
Nov-12 846.840 6.742 -134.010 2.928 -0.064 -0.055 7.264 0.979
Dec-12 758.090 6.631 -88.750 2.880 -0.048 0.016 0.754 0.984

Jan-13 750.030 6.621 -8.060 2.875 -0.005 0.043 0.097 0.998
Feb-13 819.580 6.709 69.550 2.914 0.039 0.043 -8.296 1.013
Mar-13 908.100 6.812 88.520 2.958 0.045 0.006 1.157 1.015
Apr-13 980.490 6.889 72.390 2.991 0.033 -0.011 0.748 1.011
May-13 1057.010 6.964 76.520 3.024 0.033 -0.001 0.980 1.011
Jun-13 1157.650 7.055 100.640 3.064 0.039 0.007 1.210 1.013
Jul-13 1121.230 7.023 -36.420 3.050 -0.014 -0.053 -0.351 0.995
Aug-13 1190.810 7.083 69.580 3.076 0.026 0.040 -1.883 1.009
Sep-13 1119.720 7.022 -71.090 3.049 -0.027 -0.053 -1.022 0.991
Oct-13 997.260 6.906 -122.460 2.999 -0.050 -0.024 1.882 0.984
Nov-13 766.000 6.642 -231.260 2.884 -0.115 -0.064 2.278 0.962
Dec-13 739.980 6.607 -26.020 2.869 -0.015 0.100 0.131 0.995

Jan-14 753.150 6.625 13.170 2.877 0.008 0.023 -0.510 1.003
Feb-14 770.930 6.648 17.780 2.887 0.010 0.002 1.323 1.004
Mar-14 808.110 6.695 37.180 2.907 0.020 0.010 2.019 1.007
Apr-14 846.890 6.742 38.780 2.928 0.020 0.000 0.995 1.007
May-14 834.980 6.728 -11.910 2.922 -0.006 -0.027 -0.302 0.998
Jun-14 834.560 6.728 -0.420 2.921 0.000 0.006 0.036 1.000
Jul-14 783.040 6.664 -51.520 2.894 -0.028 -0.027 126.648 0.991
Aug-14 768.170 6.645 -14.870 2.885 -0.008 0.019 0.301 0.997
Sep-14 771.030 6.648 2.860 2.887 0.002 0.010 -0.194 1.001
Oct-14 732.150 6.597 -38.880 2.865 -0.022 -0.024 -13.923 0.992
Nov-14 717.870 6.577 -14.280 2.856 -0.009 0.014 0.381 0.997
Dec-14 769.230 6.646 51.360 2.886 0.030 0.039 -3.508 1.011

Jan-15 758.020 6.631 -11.210 2.880 -0.006 -0.036 -0.212 0.998
Feb-15 704.170 6.558 -53.850 2.848 -0.032 -0.026 5.020 0.989
Mar-15 633.290 6.452 -70.880 2.802 -0.046 -0.014 1.440 0.984
Apr-15 612.130 6.418 -21.160 2.787 -0.015 0.031 0.320 0.995
May-15 608.640 6.412 -3.490 2.784 -0.002 0.012 0.168 0.999
Jun-15 629.900 6.446 21.260 2.799 0.015 0.017 -6.005 1.005
Jul-15 640.110 6.462 10.210 2.806 0.007 -0.008 0.468 1.002
Aug-15 684.280 6.529 44.170 2.835 0.029 0.022 4.150 1.010
Sep-15 631.910 6.449 -52.370 2.801 -0.035 -0.064 -1.193 0.988

Gompertz curve can be fitted by two method. These are :
 Method of 3 selected points
 Method of partial sums :
In this method the time series data is divided into 3 equal parts. For this purpose
one or two values may be ignored from the data depending upon the relevance of
future or past data.
Now the sums of values of 3 equal parts namely S1 ,S2 and S3 are used to estimate
values of k , A and b as shown below.

S1 490.6460564
S2 538.1634728
S3 541.2514735
K 6.768326256
A -1.889290886
b 0.966407534
k 869.8547604
a 0.151178974

Months K+Abt Trend Values
Jan-96 5.176 176.929
Feb-96 5.229 186.652
Mar-96 5.281 196.556
Apr-96 5.331 206.627
May-96 5.379 216.849
Jun-96 5.426 227.208
Jul-96 5.471 237.689
Aug-96 5.515 248.276
Sep-96 5.557 258.957
Oct-96 5.597 269.714
Nov-96 5.637 280.535
Dec-96 5.675 291.405
Sep-95 4.943 140.120
Oct-95 5.004 148.983
Nov-95 5.063 158.081
Dec-95 5.120 167.401

Jan-97 5.711 302.309
Feb-97 5.747 313.235
Mar-97 5.781 324.169
Apr-97 5.814 335.098
May-97 5.846 346.009
Jun-97 5.877 356.892
Jul-97 5.907 367.734
Aug-97 5.936 378.525
Sep-97 5.964 389.254
Oct-97 5.991 399.912
Nov-97 6.017 410.489
Dec-97 6.043 420.976

Jan-98 6.067 431.365
Feb-98 6.091 441.649
Mar-98 6.113 451.821
Apr-98 6.135 461.873
May-98 6.157 471.800
Jun-98 6.177 481.596
Jul-98 6.197 491.257
Aug-98 6.216 500.777
Sep-98 6.235 510.152
Oct-98 6.253 519.379
Nov-98 6.270 528.455
Dec-98 6.287 537.376

Jan-99 6.303 546.141
Feb-99 6.319 554.748
Mar-99 6.334 563.194
Apr-99 6.348 571.478
May-99 6.362 579.600
Jun-99 6.376 587.559
Jul-99 6.389 595.354
Aug-99 6.402 602.986
Sep-99 6.414 610.454
Oct-99 6.426 617.760
Nov-99 6.438 624.902
Dec-99 6.449 631.884

Jan-00 6.459 638.705
Feb-00 6.470 645.367
Mar-00 6.480 651.871
Apr-00 6.490 658.219
May-00 6.499 664.412
Jun-00 6.508 670.452
Jul-00 6.517 676.342
Aug-00 6.525 682.084
Sep-00 6.533 687.678
Oct-00 6.541 693.129
Nov-00 6.549 698.437
Dec-00 6.556 703.605

Jan-01 6.563 708.637
Feb-01 6.570 713.533
Mar-01 6.577 718.297
Apr-01 6.583 722.931
May-01 6.590 727.438
Jun-01 6.596 731.821
Jul-01 6.601 736.081
Aug-01 6.607 740.222
Sep-01 6.612 744.245
Oct-01 6.618 748.154
Nov-01 6.623 751.952
Dec-01 6.628 755.640

Jan-02 6.632 759.222
Feb-02 6.637 762.699
Mar-02 6.641 766.075
Apr-02 6.646 769.351
May-02 6.650 772.531
Jun-02 6.654 775.616
Jul-02 6.658 778.610
Aug-02 6.661 781.513
Sep-02 6.665 784.330
Oct-02 6.668 787.062
Nov-02 6.672 789.711
Dec-02 6.675 792.279

Jan-03 6.678 794.769
Feb-03 6.681 797.183
Mar-03 6.684 799.523
Apr-03 6.687 801.790
May-03 6.690 803.988
Jun-03 6.692 806.117
Jul-03 6.695 808.181
Aug-03 6.697 810.180
Sep-03 6.700 812.116
Oct-03 6.702 813.992
Nov-03 6.704 815.809
Dec-03 6.706 817.569

Jan-04 6.708 819.273
Feb-04 6.710 820.924
Mar-04 6.712 822.522
Apr-04 6.714 824.069
May-04 6.716 825.567
Jun-04 6.718 827.018
Jul-04 6.720 828.422
Aug-04 6.721 829.781
Sep-04 6.723 831.097
Oct-04 6.724 832.370
Nov-04 6.726 833.603
Dec-04 6.727 834.796

Jan-05 6.729 835.950
Feb-05 6.730 837.068
Mar-05 6.731 838.149
Apr-05 6.732 839.195
May-05 6.734 840.207
Jun-05 6.735 841.186
Jul-05 6.736 842.134
Aug-05 6.737 843.051
Sep-05 6.738 843.937
Oct-05 6.739 844.795
Nov-05 6.740 845.625
Dec-05 6.741 846.428

Jan-06 6.742 847.205
Feb-06 6.743 847.956
Mar-06 6.744 848.683
Apr-06 6.745 849.385
May-06 6.745 850.065
Jun-06 6.746 850.723
Jul-06 6.747 851.358
Aug-06 6.748 851.973
Sep-06 6.748 852.568
Oct-06 6.749 853.143
Nov-06 6.750 853.699
Dec-06 6.750 854.237

Jan-07 6.751 854.757
Feb-07 6.751 855.260
Mar-07 6.752 855.746
Apr-07 6.753 856.216
May-07 6.753 856.671
Jun-07 6.754 857.111
Jul-07 6.754 857.536
Aug-07 6.755 857.947
Sep-07 6.755 858.344
Oct-07 6.755 858.728
Nov-07 6.756 859.100
Dec-07 6.756 859.459

Jan-08 6.757 859.806
Feb-08 6.757 860.142
Mar-08 6.757 860.466
Apr-08 6.758 860.780
May-08 6.758 861.083
Jun-08 6.759 861.376
Jul-08 6.759 861.660
Aug-08 6.759 861.934
Sep-08 6.759 862.199
Oct-08 6.760 862.455
Nov-08 6.760 862.703
Dec-08 6.760 862.942

Jan-09 6.761 863.173
Feb-09 6.761 863.397
Mar-09 6.761 863.613
Apr-09 6.761 863.822
May-09 6.762 864.024
Jun-09 6.762 864.219
Jul-09 6.762 864.408
Aug-09 6.762 864.590
Sep-09 6.762 864.767
Oct-09 6.763 864.937
Nov-09 6.763 865.102
Dec-09 6.763 865.261

Jan-10 6.763 865.415
Feb-10 6.763 865.564
Mar-10 6.764 865.707
Apr-10 6.764 865.846
May-10 6.764 865.981
Jun-10 6.764 866.111
Jul-10 6.764 866.236
Aug-10 6.764 866.358
Sep-10 6.764 866.475
Oct-10 6.765 866.588
Nov-10 6.765 866.698
Dec-10 6.765 866.804

Jan-11 6.765 866.906
Feb-11 6.765 867.005
Mar-11 6.765 867.100
Apr-11 6.765 867.193
May-11 6.765 867.282
Jun-11 6.765 867.368
Jul-11 6.766 867.452
Aug-11 6.766 867.532
Sep-11 6.766 867.610
Oct-11 6.766 867.686
Nov-11 6.766 867.758
Dec-11 6.766 867.829

Jan-12 6.766 867.897
Feb-12 6.766 867.962
Mar-12 6.766 868.026
Apr-12 6.766 868.087
May-12 6.766 868.147
Jun-12 6.766 868.204
Jul-12 6.766 868.259
Aug-12 6.767 868.313
Sep-12 6.767 868.365
Oct-12 6.767 868.415
Nov-12 6.767 868.463
Dec-12 6.767 868.510

Jan-13 6.767 868.555
Feb-13 6.767 868.598
Mar-13 6.767 868.641
Apr-13 6.767 868.681
May-13 6.767 868.721
Jun-13 6.767 868.759
Jul-13 6.767 868.796
Aug-13 6.767 868.831
Sep-13 6.767 868.866
Oct-13 6.767 868.899
Nov-13 6.767 868.931
Dec-13 6.767 868.962

Jan-14 6.767 868.992
Feb-14 6.767 869.021
Mar-14 6.767 869.049
Apr-14 6.767 869.076
May-14 6.767 869.102
Jun-14 6.767 869.127
Jul-14 6.768 869.152
Aug-14 6.768 869.175
Sep-14 6.768 869.198
Oct-14 6.768 869.220
Nov-14 6.768 869.242
Dec-14 6.768 869.262

Jan-15 6.768 869.282
Feb-15 6.768 869.301
Mar-15 6.768 869.320
Apr-15 6.768 869.338
May-15 6.768 869.355
Jun-15 6.768 869.372
Jul-15 6.768 869.388
Aug-15 6.768 869.404
Sep-15 6.768 869.419

0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Sep-95
Apr-96
Nov-96
Jun-97
Jan-98
Aug-98
Mar-99
Oct-99
May-00
Dec-00
Jul-01
Feb-02
Sep-02
Apr-03
Nov-03
Jun-04
Jan-05
Aug-05
Mar-06
Oct-06
May-07
Dec-07
Jul-08
Feb-09
Sep-09
Apr-10
Nov-10
Jun-11
Jan-12
Aug-12
Mar-13
Oct-13
May-14
Dec-14
Jul-15
Prices of Oranges
Trendline

• Seasonal variation is measured in terms of an index, called
a seasonal index. Its an average that can be used to
compare actual observation relative to what it would be if
there were no seasonal variations .
• An index value is attached to each period of time series
within a year.
• The following methods are used
 Method of simple averages
 Ratio to trend method
 Ratio to moving average method
 Link relative method

• This is the simplest method of measuring
seasonal component
• This method assumes that the data does not
contain trend or cyclic component.

• This method is an improvement over the
simple averages method and is based on the
assumption that seasonal variation for any
given month is constant factor of the trend.

• Moving averages completely eliminates the
seasonal movements if the extent of the
moving averages is equal to the oscillatory
movements sought to be eliminated.
• Some of the seasonal indices cannot be
determined.

• This method is based on averaging the link
relatives.
• Link relative is the value of one season
expressed as a percentage of the value of the
preceding season.

Months/Years 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Jan 94.20166 97.86116 102.4622 108.7128 102.8991 112.915 104.216 128.2055 123.213 93.29427
Feb 104.0572 95.79133 109.1447 96.78942 92.74577 116.691 102.4588 92.31079 115.7016 115.972
Mar 109.1882 103.1692 103.4609 108.8299 92.4565 136.26 129.8513 125.3633 112.4746 149.3965
Apr 111.4674 107.5235 108.686 101.7059 112.805 113.5019 98.10784 110.5566 91.89062 105.9429
May 98.35473 104.2 101.1085 99.35367 121.7873 116.6137 109.7296 97.85714 101.6102 93.25174
Jun 107.491 93.53597 101.9699 109.0467 103.7638 113.1029 99.99371 105.0277 105.5079 85.30684
Jul 94.34755 117.2257 118.6499 95.01073 94.20619 115.9386 102.8325 104.1991 107.9668 80.10035
Aug 99.96208 110.8652 93.34537 106.972 97.64548 81.47756 97.57143 105.8094 94.1067 101.1634
Sep 100.2219 95.73411 98.47277 95.83435 92.96238 73.61136 98.28733 98.71281 96.33493 98.8949
Oct 101.611 89.6446 90.19246 86.76311 109.7785 104.1485 73.35076 98.02132 106.7894 102.2079 108.8261
Nov 103.3009 100.2723 84.09427 98.90069 65.70976 95.88511 110.0017 77.61933 79.05041 77.65306 107.8993
Dec 78.55345 91.34508 85.04988 89.65066 99.61806 84.84665 91.36481 89.50503 88.1948 95.91663 96.57658

Months/Years 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Jan 100.0389 100.5411 111.2089 102.7792 107.4666 101.4809 96.41693 98.9368 101.7798 98.5427
Feb 96.67079 105.6117 101.8822 97.90137 90.11531 120.4666 106.5783 109.273 102.3608 92.89597
Mar 98.46615 96.37927 117.3246 110.5146 97.2626 96.32526 103.0733 110.8007 104.8227 89.93425
Apr 98.94543 105.4848 100.2397 106.7847 104.1908 103.3469 102.5319 107.9716 104.7989 96.65872
May 99.98251 103.6222 106.8062 98.20015 106.0298 94.94194 91.85067 107.8043 98.59368 99.42986
Jun 83.21024 105.4689 107.3416 91.88057 113.8958 109.5635 126.0548 109.5212 99.9497 103.493
Jul 110.2968 122.146 101.2203 87.65378 108.4194 106.0192 106.5494 96.85397 93.82669 101.6209
Aug 113.1318 107.7594 79.05692 116.9048 87.4786 97.66046 95.58986 106.2057 98.10099 106.9004
Sep 105.752 83.8433 81.63361 123.2766 91.88295 125.9383 103.1431 94.03011 100.3723 92.3467
Oct 117.9108 94.40914 98.46965 111.8008 103.7704 86.42275 97.99778 89.06334 94.95739
Nov 89.87645 107.3052 93.79115 100.1562 75.79258 66.00658 86.33736 76.81046 98.04958
Dec 85.14477 88.54069 89.26337 87.80069 87.92008 111.1612 89.51986 96.60313 107.1545

Months Avg Link Relative Chain Relative D Values
Corrected
CR Seasonal Indices
Jan 104.3586238 100 100 87.50457237
Feb 103.2709321 103.2709321 0.60077309 102.0693859 89.31537968
Mar 109.7676881 113.3581147 1.20154618 111.5557954 97.6164217
Apr 104.6570399 118.6372473 1.80231927 116.2341549 101.7102002
May 102.5563952 121.6700842 2.40309236 118.6662187 103.8383672
Jun 103.7562891 126.2403643 3.00386545 122.6357257 107.3118674
Jul 103.2541937 130.3484703 3.60463854 126.1430587 110.380944
Aug 99.8853719 130.1990543 4.20541163 125.3928696 109.7244943
Sep 97.56428889 127.0277815 4.80618472 121.6208237 106.4237817
Oct 98.30678381 124.8769265 5.40695781 118.8691956 104.0159813
Nov 89.7256169 112.0465927 6.0077309 105.4380887 92.26314862
Dec 91.68649486 102.7315934 6.60850399 102.7315934 89.89484152
Average 114.2797425
NEW CHAIN RELATIVE FOR
FIRST MONTH 107.2092771

Residual after trend is eliminated

t Months Yt Trend Values Seasonal Indices Residual= (Yt/Tt)*100 Residual
1 Sep-95 537.55 140.1202958 106.4237817 383.6346455 3.83634646
2 Oct-95 546.21 148.9834567 104.0159813 366.6245985 3.66624599
3 Nov-95 564.24 158.0812077 92.26314862 356.9304714 3.56930471
4 Dec-95 443.23 167.4008658 89.89484152 264.7716293 2.64771629

5 Jan-96 417.53 176.9291779 87.50457237 235.9870796 2.3598708
6 Feb-96 434.47 186.6524081 89.31537968 232.7695659 2.32769566
7 Mar-96 474.39 196.5564243 97.6164217 241.3505443 2.41350544
8 Apr-96 528.79 206.6267836 101.7102002 255.9155163 2.55915516
9 May-96 520.09 216.8488146 103.8383672 239.8399092 2.39839909
10 Jun-96 559.05 227.2076975 107.3118674 246.0524032 2.46052403
11 Jul-96 527.45 237.6885408 110.380944 221.9080475 2.21908048
12 Aug-96 527.25 248.2764534 109.7244943 212.3640776 2.12364078
13 Sep-96 528.42 258.9566136 106.4237817 204.0573487 2.04057349
14 Oct-96 473.7 269.7143327 104.0159813 175.630266 1.75630266
15 Nov-96 474.99 280.5351144 92.26314862 169.3157026 1.69315703
16 Dec-96 433.88 291.4047095 89.89484152 148.8925834 1.48892583

17 Jan-97 424.6 302.3091651 87.50457237 140.452242 1.40452242
18 Feb-97 406.73 313.2348696 89.31537968 129.8482511 1.29848251
19 Mar-97 419.62 324.1685924 97.6164217 129.4449894 1.29444989
20 Apr-97 451.19 335.0975192 101.7102002 134.6443868 1.34644387
21 May-97 470.14 346.009282 103.8383672 135.8749677 1.35874968
22 Jun-97 439.75 356.8919852 107.3118674 123.2165524 1.23216552
23 Jul-97 515.5 367.7342273 110.380944 140.1827629 1.40182763
24 Aug-97 571.51 378.525118 109.7244943 150.9833754 1.50983375
25 Sep-97 547.13 389.2542916 106.4237817 140.5585017 1.40558502
26 Oct-97 493.47 399.9119175 104.0159813 123.3946723 1.23394672
27 Nov-97 414.98 410.4887057 92.26314862 101.0941335 1.01094134
28 Dec-97 352.94 420.9759105 89.89484152 83.83852643 0.83838526

29 Jan-98 361.63 431.3653306 87.50457237 83.83381193 0.83833812
30 Feb-98 394.7 441.6493067 89.31537968 89.36955045 0.8936955
31 Mar-98 408.36 451.8207166 97.6164217 90.38098188 0.90380982
32 Apr-98 443.83 461.8729679 101.7102002 96.09352156 0.96093522
33 May-98 448.75 471.7999893 103.8383672 95.11445743 0.95114457
34 Jun-98 457.59 481.5962196 107.3118674 95.01528071 0.95015281
35 Jul-98 542.93 491.2565955 110.380944 110.518618 1.10518618
36 Aug-98 506.8 500.7765377 109.7244943 101.2028244 1.01202824
37 Sep-98 499.06 510.1519365 106.4237817 97.82575823 0.97825758
38 Oct-98 433 519.379136 104.0159813 83.36877052 0.83368771
39 Nov-98 428.24 528.4549176 92.26314862 81.03624089 0.81036241
40 Dec-98 383.92 537.3764829 89.89484152 71.44339438 0.71443394

41 Jan-99 417.37 546.1414366 87.50457237 76.42159558 0.76421596
42 Feb-99 403.97 554.7477682 89.31537968 72.82048223 0.72820482
43 Mar-99 439.64 563.1938342 97.6164217 78.06193415 0.78061934
44 Apr-99 447.14 571.4783401 101.7102002 78.24268544 0.78242685
45 May-99 444.25 579.6003222 103.8383672 76.64764546 0.76647646
46 Jun-99 484.44 587.5591296 107.3118674 82.44957411 0.82449574
47 Jul-99 460.27 595.3544067 110.380944 77.31025332 0.77310253
48 Aug-99 492.36 602.9860755 109.7244943 81.65362685 0.81653627
49 Sep-99 471.85 610.4543182 106.4237817 77.29489103 0.77294891
50 Oct-99 517.99 617.7595608 104.0159813 83.84977471 0.83849775
51 Nov-99 340.37 624.9024566 92.26314862 54.46770074 0.54467701
52 Dec-99 339.07 631.8838701 89.89484152 53.66017651 0.53660177

53 Jan-00 348.9 638.7048617 87.50457237 54.62616945 0.54626169
54 Feb-00 323.59 645.3666728 89.31537968 50.14048813 0.50140488
55 Mar-00 299.18 651.8707115 97.6164217 45.89560394 0.45895604
56 Apr-00 337.49 658.2185387 101.7102002 51.27324439 0.51273244
57 May-00 411.02 664.4118547 103.8383672 61.86223155 0.61862232
58 Jun-00 426.49 670.4524869 107.3118674 63.61226311 0.63612263
59 Jul-00 401.78 676.3423773 110.380944 59.40482417 0.59404824
60 Aug-00 392.32 682.0835712 109.7244943 57.51787853 0.57517879
61 Sep-00 364.71 687.6782064 106.4237817 53.03498011 0.5303498
62 Oct-00 379.84 693.1285024 104.0159813 54.80080515 0.54800805
63 Nov-00 364.21 698.4367507 92.26314862 52.14645416 0.52146454
64 Dec-00 309.02 703.6053056 89.89484152 43.91950964 0.4391951

65 Jan-01 348.93 708.6365756 87.50457237 49.23962607 0.49239626
66 Feb-01 407.17 713.5330147 89.31537968 57.0639328 0.57063933
67 Mar-01 554.81 718.2971148 97.6164217 77.2396253 0.77239625
68 Apr-01 629.72 722.9313988 101.7102002 87.10646696 0.87106467
69 May-01 734.34 727.4384133 103.8383672 100.948752 1.00948752
70 Jun-01 830.56 731.8207226 107.3118674 113.4922768 1.13492277
71 Jul-01 962.94 736.0809025 110.380944 130.8198592 1.30819859
72 Aug-01 784.58 740.2215354 109.7244943 105.9925931 1.05992593
73 Sep-01 577.54 744.2452043 106.4237817 77.60076876 0.77600769
74 Oct-01 423.63 748.154489 104.0159813 56.62333198 0.56623332
75 Nov-01 466 751.9519611 92.26314862 61.97204398 0.61972044
76 Dec-01 425.76 755.6401805 89.89484152 56.34427747 0.56344278

77 Jan-02 443.71 759.2216915 87.50457237 58.44274538 0.58442745
78 Feb-02 454.62 762.6990193 89.31537968 59.60673719 0.59606737
79 Mar-02 590.33 766.0746674 97.6164217 77.05906815 0.77059068
80 Apr-02 579.16 769.3511144 101.7102002 75.27902269 0.75279023
81 May-02 635.51 772.5308118 103.8383672 82.26338552 0.82263386
82 Jun-02 635.47 775.6161815 107.3118674 81.93098792 0.81930988
83 Jul-02 653.47 778.6096141 110.380944 83.92781032 0.8392781
84 Aug-02 637.6 781.5134667 109.7244943 81.58528639 0.81585286
85 Sep-02 626.68 784.3300617 106.4237817 79.90003579 0.79900036
86 Oct-02 614.28 787.0616853 104.0159813 78.04724985 0.7804725
87 Nov-02 476.8 789.7105861 92.26314862 60.37654913 0.60376549
88 Dec-02 426.76 792.2789743 89.89484152 53.86486501 0.53864865

89 Jan-03 547.13 794.7690208 87.50457237 68.84138482 0.68841385
90 Feb-03 505.06 797.1828562 89.31537968 63.3556023 0.63355602
91 Mar-03 633.16 799.5225706 97.6164217 79.19226089 0.79192261
92 Apr-03 700 801.7902129 101.7102002 87.30463265 0.87304633
93 May-03 685 803.9877904 103.8383672 85.20029883 0.85200299
94 Jun-03 719.44 806.1172688 107.3118674 89.24756085 0.89247561
95 Jul-03 749.65 808.1805719 110.380944 92.75773585 0.92757736
96 Aug-03 793.2 810.1795813 109.7244943 97.90422004 0.9790422
97 Sep-03 782.99 812.1161371 106.4237817 96.41355025 0.9641355
98 Oct-03 836.15 813.9920374 104.0159813 102.7221351 1.02722135
99 Nov-03 660.98 815.8090387 92.26314862 81.02141171 0.81021412
100 Dec-03 582.95 817.5688562 89.89484152 71.30286282 0.71302863

101 Jan-04 718.27 819.273164 87.50457237 87.67161327 0.87671613
102 Feb-04 831.05 820.9235957 89.31537968 101.233538 1.01233538
103 Mar-04 934.72 822.5217443 97.6164217 113.6407647 1.13640765
104 Apr-04 858.92 824.0691634 101.7102002 104.2291155 1.04229116
105 May-04 872.75 825.5673668 103.8383672 105.7151766 1.05715177
106 Jun-04 920.82 827.01783 107.3118674 111.3422186 1.11342219
107 Jul-04 994.18 828.4219899 110.380944 120.0088858 1.20008886
108 Aug-04 935.59 829.7812459 109.7244943 112.7514034 1.12751403
109 Sep-04 901.3 831.0969601 106.4237817 108.4470336 1.08447034
110 Oct-04 921.2 832.3704586 104.0159813 110.6718758 1.10671876
111 Nov-04 715.34 833.6030312 92.26314862 85.8130277 0.85813028
112 Dec-04 686.13 834.7959328 89.89484152 82.19134438 0.82191344

113 Jan-05 640.12 835.950384 87.50457237 76.5739226 0.76573923
114 Feb-05 742.36 837.0675712 89.31537968 88.68579139 0.88685791
115 Mar-05 1109.06 838.148648 97.6164217 132.3225901 1.3232259
116 Apr-05 1174.97 839.1947354 101.7102002 140.0116028 1.40011603
117 May-05 1095.68 840.2069226 103.8383672 130.4059715 1.30405972
118 Jun-05 934.69 841.186268 107.3118674 111.1156988 1.11115699
119 Jul-05 748.69 842.1337994 110.380944 88.90392483 0.88903925
120 Aug-05 757.4 843.050515 109.7244943 89.84040535 0.89840405
121 Sep-05 749.03 843.9373841 106.4237817 88.75421496 0.88754215
122 Oct-05 815.14 844.7953475 104.0159813 96.48964124 0.96489641
123 Nov-05 879.53 845.6253186 92.26314862 104.0094213 1.04009421
124 Dec-05 849.42 846.4281836 89.89484152 100.3534637 1.00353464

125 Jan-06 849.75 847.2048027 87.50457237 100.3004229 1.00300423
126 Feb-06 821.46 847.9560103 89.31537968 96.87530839 0.96875308
127 Mar-06 808.86 848.6826159 97.6164217 95.30771396 0.95307714
128 Apr-06 800.33 849.3854047 101.7102002 94.2246 0.942246
129 May-06 800.19 850.0651379 103.8383672 94.13278633 0.94132786
130 Jun-06 665.84 850.7225542 107.3118674 78.26758521 0.78267585
131 Jul-06 734.4 851.3583693 110.380944 86.26214606 0.86262146
132 Aug-06 830.84 851.9732773 109.7244943 97.5194906 0.97519491
133 Sep-06 878.63 852.567951 106.4237817 103.0568882 1.03056888
134 Oct-06 1036 853.1430426 104.0159813 121.4333293 1.21433329
135 Nov-06 931.12 853.699184 92.26314862 109.0688638 1.09068864
136 Dec-06 792.8 854.2369877 89.89484152 92.80796915 0.92807969

137 Jan-07 797.09 854.7570472 87.50457237 93.25339904 0.93253399
138 Feb-07 841.82 855.2599374 89.31537968 98.42855525 0.98428555
139 Mar-07 811.34 855.7462155 97.6164217 94.81081953 0.9481082
140 Apr-07 855.84 856.2164209 101.7102002 99.95603671 0.99956037
141 May-07 886.84 856.6710765 103.8383672 103.5216461 1.03521646
142 Jun-07 935.34 857.1106885 107.3118674 109.1270955 1.09127096
143 Jul-07 1142.48 857.5357472 110.380944 133.2282653 1.33228265
144 Aug-07 1231.13 857.9467274 109.7244943 143.4972546 1.43497255
145 Sep-07 1032.22 858.344089 106.4237817 120.2571339 1.20257134
146 Oct-07 974.51 858.728277 104.0159813 113.4829289 1.13482929
147 Nov-07 1045.7 859.0997226 92.26314862 121.7204444 1.21720444
148 Dec-07 925.87 859.4588431 89.89484152 107.7270898 1.0772709

149 Jan-08 1029.65 859.8060425 87.50457237 119.7537525 1.19753753
150 Feb-08 1049.03 860.1417119 89.31537968 121.9601358 1.21960136
151 Mar-08 1230.77 860.4662298 97.6164217 143.0352473 1.43035247
152 Apr-08 1233.72 860.7799627 101.7102002 143.325827 1.43325827
153 May-08 1317.69 861.0832653 103.8383672 153.027013 1.53027013
154 Jun-08 1414.43 861.3764807 107.3118674 164.2057836 1.64205784
155 Jul-08 1431.69 861.6599411 110.380944 166.1548752 1.66154875
156 Aug-08 1131.85 861.9339681 109.7244943 131.3151636 1.31315164
157 Sep-08 923.97 862.1988726 106.4237817 107.1643712 1.07164371
158 Oct-08 909.83 862.4549557 104.0159813 105.4930456 1.05493046
159 Nov-08 853.34 862.7025085 92.26314862 98.91474657 0.98914747
160 Dec-08 761.72 862.941813 89.89484152 88.2701462 0.88270146

161 Jan-09 782.89 863.1731418 87.50457237 90.6990686 0.90699069
162 Feb-09 766.46 863.3967585 89.31537968 88.77262886 0.88772629
163 Mar-09 847.05 863.6129185 97.6164217 98.08213633 0.98082136
164 Apr-09 904.52 863.8218685 101.7102002 104.7114032 1.04711403
165 May-09 888.24 864.0238474 103.8383672 102.8027181 1.02802718
166 Jun-09 816.12 864.2190862 107.3118674 94.43438741 0.94434387
167 Jul-09 715.36 864.4078084 110.380944 82.75723484 0.82757235
168 Aug-09 836.29 864.5902301 109.7244943 96.72674648 0.96726747
169 Sep-09 1030.95 864.7665604 106.4237817 119.2171445 1.19217145
170 Oct-09 1152.61 864.9370015 104.0159813 133.2594164 1.33259416
171 Nov-09 1154.41 865.101749 92.26314862 133.4421068 1.33442107
172 Dec-09 1013.58 865.260992 89.89484152 117.1415341 1.17141534

173 Jan-10 1089.26 865.4149135 87.50457237 125.8656377 1.25865638
174 Feb-10 981.59 865.5636904 89.31537968 113.4047108 1.13404711
175 Mar-10 954.72 865.7074938 97.6164217 110.2820533 1.10282053
176 Apr-10 994.73 865.8464893 101.7102002 114.8852611 1.14885261
177 May-10 1054.71 865.9808367 103.8383672 121.7936882 1.21793688
178 Jun-10 1201.27 866.1106909 107.3118674 138.6970525 1.38697053
179 Jul-10 1302.41 866.2362014 110.380944 150.3527557 1.50352756
180 Aug-10 1139.33 866.357513 109.7244943 131.5080648 1.31508065
181 Sep-10 1046.85 866.4747657 106.4237817 120.8171365 1.20817137
182 Oct-10 1086.32 866.5880945 104.0159813 125.3559802 1.2535598
183 Nov-10 823.35 866.6976305 92.26314862 94.99852901 0.94998529
184 Dec-10 723.89 866.8035001 89.89484152 83.51258387 0.83512584

185 Jan-11 734.61 866.9058255 87.50457237 84.73930829 0.84739308
186 Feb-11 884.96 867.004725 89.31537968 102.0709547 1.02070955
187 Mar-11 852.44 867.100313 97.6164217 98.3092714 0.98309271
188 Apr-11 880.97 867.1926999 101.7102002 101.5887242 1.01588724
189 May-11 836.41 867.2819927 103.8383672 96.4403743 0.96440374
190 Jun-11 916.4 867.3682947 107.3118674 105.652928 1.05652928
191 Jul-11 971.56 867.4517057 110.380944 112.0016242 1.12001624
192 Aug-11 948.83 867.5323224 109.7244943 109.3711411 1.09371141
193 Sep-11 1194.94 867.6102381 106.4237817 137.7277431 1.37727743
194 Oct-11 1032.7 867.685543 104.0159813 119.0177719 1.19017772
195 Nov-11 681.65 867.7583245 92.26314862 78.55297734 0.78552977
196 Dec-11 757.73 867.8286669 89.89484152 87.31331758 0.87313318

197 Jan-12 730.58 867.8966517 87.50457237 84.17822544 0.84178225
198 Feb-12 778.64 867.9623578 89.31537968 89.7089595 0.8970896
199 Mar-12 802.57 868.0258614 97.6164217 92.45922682 0.92459227
200 Apr-12 822.89 868.0872361 101.7102002 94.79346841 0.94793468
201 May-12 755.83 868.1465533 103.8383672 87.06248929 0.87062489
202 Jun-12 952.76 868.2038817 107.3118674 109.7392007 1.09739201
203 Jul-12 1015.16 868.2592879 110.380944 116.9189912 1.16918991
204 Aug-12 970.39 868.3128362 109.7244943 111.755805 1.11755805
205 Sep-12 1000.89 868.3645889 106.4237817 115.2614942 1.15261494
206 Oct-12 980.85 868.4146059 104.0159813 112.9472021 1.12947202
207 Nov-12 846.84 868.4629456 92.26314862 97.51020517 0.97510205
208 Dec-12 758.09 868.5096639 89.89484152 87.28630567 0.87286306

209 Jan-13 750.03 868.5548152 87.50457237 86.35378987 0.8635379
210 Feb-13 819.58 868.598452 89.31537968 94.3566038 0.94356604
211 Mar-13 908.1 868.6406251 97.6164217 104.5426582 1.04542658
212 Apr-13 980.49 868.6813833 101.7102002 112.8710732 1.12871073
213 May-13 1057.01 868.7207743 103.8383672 121.6743091 1.21674309
214 Jun-13 1157.65 868.7588436 107.3118674 133.2533198 1.3325332
215 Jul-13 1121.23 868.7956358 110.380944 129.0556667 1.29055667
216 Aug-13 1190.81 868.8311934 109.7244943 137.0588451 1.37058845
217 Sep-13 1119.72 868.865558 106.4237817 128.8714911 1.28871491
218 Oct-13 997.26 868.8987695 104.0159813 114.7728637 1.14772864
219 Nov-13 766 868.9308665 92.26314862 88.15430888 0.88154309
220 Dec-13 739.98 868.9618865 89.89484152 85.15678438 0.85156784

221 Jan-14 753.15 868.9918654 87.50457237 86.66939588 0.86669396
222 Feb-14 770.93 869.0208383 89.31537968 88.71248721 0.88712487
223 Mar-14 808.11 869.0488388 97.6164217 92.98786948 0.9298787
224 Apr-14 846.89 869.0758996 101.7102002 97.44718504 0.97447185
225 May-14 834.98 869.1020521 103.8383672 96.07387279 0.96073873
226 Jun-14 834.56 869.1273269 107.3118674 96.02275457 0.96022755
227 Jul-14 783.04 869.1517533 110.380944 90.09243749 0.90092438
228 Aug-14 768.17 869.1753598 109.7244943 88.37917359 0.88379174
229 Sep-14 771.03 869.1981739 106.4237817 88.70589276 0.88705893
230 Oct-14 732.15 869.2202222 104.0159813 84.23066805 0.84230668
231 Nov-14 717.87 869.2415304 92.26314862 82.58579174 0.82585792
232 Dec-14 769.23 869.2621233 89.89484152 88.49229471 0.88492295

233 Jan-15 758.02 869.2820249 87.50457237 87.20069877 0.87200699
234 Feb-15 704.17 869.3012584 89.31537968 81.00413904 0.81004139
235 Mar-15 633.29 869.3198462 97.6164217 72.84890628 0.72848906
236 Apr-15 612.13 869.3378099 101.7102002 70.4133644 0.70413364
237 May-15 608.64 869.3551706 103.8383672 70.01051131 0.70010511
238 Jun-15 629.9 869.3719484 107.3118674 72.45460372 0.72454604
239 Jul-15 640.11 869.3881629 110.380944 73.62764152 0.73627642
240 Aug-15 684.28 869.403833 109.7244943 78.70680736 0.78706807
241 Sep-15 631.91 869.4189769 106.4237817 72.68187339 0.72681873

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Residuals
Residuals

t Months yt Trend Values Seasonal Indices yt/st*100 Residuals
1 Sep-95 537.55 140.1202958 106.4237817 505.1032689 5.051032689
2 Oct-95 546.21 148.9834567 104.0159813 525.1212296 5.251212296
3 Nov-95 564.24 158.0812077 92.26314862 611.55511 6.1155511
4 Dec-95 443.23 167.4008658 89.89484152 493.0538755 4.930538755
5 Jan-96 417.53 176.9291779 87.50457237 477.152209 4.77152209
6 Feb-96 434.47 186.6524081 89.31537968 486.4447775 4.864447775
7 Mar-96 474.39 196.5564243 97.6164217 485.9735603 4.859735603
8 Apr-96 528.79 206.6267836 101.7102002 519.8986915 5.198986915
9 May-96 520.09 216.8488146 103.8383672 500.8649633 5.008649633
10 Jun-96 559.05 227.2076975 107.3118674 520.9582256 5.209582256
11 Jul-96 527.45 237.6885408 110.380944 477.8451612 4.778451612
12 Aug-96 527.25 248.2764534 109.7244943 480.5216951 4.805216951
13 Sep-96 528.42 258.9566136 106.4237817 496.5243593 4.965243593
14 Oct-96 473.7 269.7143327 104.0159813 455.4107879 4.554107879
15 Nov-96 474.99 280.5351144 92.26314862 514.8209303 5.148209303
16 Dec-96 433.88 291.4047095 89.89484152 482.6528337 4.826528337

17 Jan-97 424.6 302.3091651 87.50457237 485.2317868 4.852317868
18 Feb-97 406.73 313.2348696 89.31537968 455.3862968 4.553862968
19 Mar-97 419.62 324.1685924 97.6164217 429.8661974 4.298661974
20 Apr-97 451.19 335.0975192 101.7102002 443.6034921 4.436034921
21 May-97 470.14 346.009282 103.8383672 452.7613564 4.527613564
22 Jun-97 439.75 356.8919852 107.3118674 409.7869237 4.097869237
23 Jul-97 515.5 367.7342273 110.380944 467.0190172 4.670190172
24 Aug-97 571.51 378.525118 109.7244943 520.8590877 5.208590877
25 Sep-97 547.13 389.2542916 106.4237817 514.1050163 5.141050163
26 Oct-97 493.47 399.9119175 104.0159813 474.4174826 4.744174826
27 Nov-97 414.98 410.4887057 92.26314862 449.7787104 4.497787104
28 Dec-97 352.94 420.9759105 89.89484152 392.6142969 3.926142969

29 Jan-98 361.63 431.3653306 87.50457237 413.2698329 4.132698329
30 Feb-98 394.7 441.6493067 89.31537968 441.917172 4.41917172
31 Mar-98 408.36 451.8207166 97.6164217 418.331253 4.18331253
32 Apr-98 443.83 461.8729679 101.7102002 436.3672464 4.363672464
33 May-98 448.75 471.7999893 103.8383672 432.1620341 4.321620341
34 Jun-98 457.59 481.5962196 107.3118674 426.4113665 4.264113665
35 Jul-98 542.93 491.2565955 110.380944 491.869321 4.91869321
36 Aug-98 506.8 500.7765377 109.7244943 461.8841064 4.618841064
37 Sep-98 499.06 510.1519365 106.4237817 468.9365405 4.689365405
38 Oct-98 433 519.379136 104.0159813 416.2821853 4.162821853
39 Nov-98 428.24 528.4549176 92.26314862 464.1506456 4.641506456
40 Dec-98 383.92 537.3764829 89.89484152 427.076786 4.27076786

41 Jan-99 417.37 546.1414366 87.50457237 476.9693614 4.769693614
42 Feb-99 403.97 554.7477682 89.31537968 452.2961235 4.522961235
43 Mar-99 439.64 563.1938342 97.6164217 450.3750418 4.503750418
44 Apr-99 447.14 571.4783401 101.7102002 439.6215906 4.396215906
45 May-99 444.25 579.6003222 103.8383672 427.8283758 4.278283758
46 Jun-99 484.44 587.5591296 107.3118674 451.4318984 4.514318984
47 Jul-99 460.27 595.3544067 110.380944 416.9832066 4.169832066
48 Aug-99 492.36 602.9860755 109.7244943 448.7238726 4.487238726
49 Sep-99 471.85 610.4543182 106.4237817 443.3689469 4.433689469
50 Oct-99 517.99 617.7595608 104.0159813 497.9907833 4.979907833
51 Nov-99 340.37 624.9024566 92.26314862 368.9121877 3.689121877
52 Dec-99 339.07 631.8838701 89.89484152 377.185158 3.77185158

53 Jan-00 348.9 638.7048617 87.50457237 398.7220217 3.987220217
54 Feb-00 323.59 645.3666728 89.31537968 362.3004248 3.623004248
55 Mar-00 299.18 651.8707115 97.6164217 306.4853175 3.064853175
56 Apr-00 337.49 658.2185387 101.7102002 331.8152941 3.318152941
57 May-00 411.02 664.4118547 103.8383672 395.826717 3.95826717
58 Jun-00 426.49 670.4524869 107.3118674 397.4304152 3.974304152
59 Jul-00 401.78 676.3423773 110.380944 363.9939878 3.639939878
60 Aug-00 392.32 682.0835712 109.7244943 357.5500643 3.575500643
61 Sep-00 364.71 687.6782064 106.4237817 342.6959598 3.426959598
62 Oct-00 379.84 693.1285024 104.0159813 365.1746542 3.651746542
63 Nov-00 364.21 698.4367507 92.26314862 394.7513232 3.947513232
64 Dec-00 309.02 703.6053056 89.89484152 343.7572109 3.437572109

65 Jan-01 348.93 708.6365756 87.50457237 398.7563056 3.987563056
66 Feb-01 407.17 713.5330147 89.31537968 455.8789331 4.558789331
67 Mar-01 554.81 718.2971148 97.6164217 568.3572398 5.683572398
68 Apr-01 629.72 722.9313988 101.7102002 619.1316099 6.191316099
69 May-01 734.34 727.4384133 103.8383672 707.1952492 7.071952492
70 Jun-01 830.56 731.8207226 107.3118674 773.9684533 7.739684533
71 Jul-01 962.94 736.0809025 110.380944 872.3788407 8.723788407
72 Aug-01 784.58 740.2215354 109.7244943 715.0454463 7.150454463
73 Sep-01 577.54 744.2452043 106.4237817 542.6794566 5.426794566
74 Oct-01 423.63 748.154489 104.0159813 407.2739542 4.072739542
75 Nov-01 466 751.9519611 92.26314862 505.0770616 5.050770616
76 Dec-01 425.76 755.6401805 89.89484152 473.6200574 4.736200574

77 Jan-02 443.71 759.2216915 87.50457237 507.0706456 5.070706456
78 Feb-02 454.62 762.6990193 89.31537968 509.0052818 5.090052818
79 Mar-02 590.33 766.0746674 97.6164217 604.7445601 6.047445601
80 Apr-02 579.16 769.3511144 101.7102002 569.4217481 5.694217481
81 May-02 635.51 772.5308118 103.8383672 612.018483 6.12018483
82 Jun-02 635.47 775.6161815 107.3118674 592.1712255 5.921712255
83 Jul-02 653.47 778.6096141 110.380944 592.0134183 5.920134183
84 Aug-02 637.6 781.5134667 109.7244943 581.0917645 5.810917645
85 Sep-02 626.68 784.3300617 106.4237817 588.8533467 5.888533467
86 Oct-02 614.28 787.0616853 104.0159813 590.5630965 5.905630965
87 Nov-02 476.8 789.7105861 92.26314862 516.7827103 5.167827103
88 Dec-02 426.76 792.2789743 89.89484152 474.7324683 4.747324683

89 Jan-03 547.13 794.7690208 87.50457237 625.2587553 6.252587553
90 Feb-03 505.06 797.1828562 89.31537968 565.4793181 5.654793181
91 Mar-03 633.16 799.5225706 97.6164217 648.6203745 6.486203745
92 Apr-03 700 801.7902129 101.7102002 688.229891 6.88229891
93 May-03 685 803.9877904 103.8383672 659.6790938 6.596790938
94 Jun-03 719.44 806.1172688 107.3118674 670.4197939 6.704197939
95 Jul-03 749.65 808.1805719 110.380944 679.1480237 6.791480237
96 Aug-03 793.2 810.1795813 109.7244943 722.9014861 7.229014861
97 Sep-03 782.99 812.1161371 106.4237817 735.7284132 7.357284132
98 Oct-03 836.15 813.9920374 104.0159813 803.8668574 8.038668574
99 Nov-03 660.98 815.8090387 92.26314862 716.4073738 7.164073738
100 Dec-03 582.95 817.5688562 89.89484152 648.479924 6.48479924

101 Jan-04 718.27 819.273164 87.50457237 820.8371066 8.208371066
102 Feb-04 831.05 820.9235957 89.31537968 930.4668501 9.304668501
103 Mar-04 934.72 822.5217443 97.6164217 957.5438064 9.575438064
104 Apr-04 858.92 824.0691634 101.7102002 844.4777399 8.444777399
105 May-04 872.75 825.5673668 103.8383672 840.4889476 8.404889476
106 Jun-04 920.82 827.01783 107.3118674 858.0784425 8.580784425
107 Jul-04 994.18 828.4219899 110.380944 900.6808273 9.006808273
108 Aug-04 935.59 829.7812459 109.7244943 852.6719635 8.526719635
109 Sep-04 901.3 831.0969601 106.4237817 846.8971747 8.468971747
110 Oct-04 921.2 832.3704586 104.0159813 885.6331388 8.856331388
111 Nov-04 715.34 833.6030312 92.26314862 775.3258053 7.753258053
112 Dec-04 686.13 834.7959328 89.89484152 763.2584789 7.632584789

113 Jan-05 640.12 835.950384 87.50457237 731.5274879 7.315274879
114 Feb-05 742.36 837.0675712 89.31537968 831.1670427 8.311670427
115 Mar-05 1109.06 838.148648 97.6164217 1136.140806 11.36140806
116 Apr-05 1174.97 839.1947354 101.7102002 1155.213536 11.55213536
117 May-05 1095.68 840.2069226 103.8383672 1055.178379 10.55178379
118 Jun-05 934.69 841.186268 107.3118674 871.0033876 8.710033876
119 Jul-05 748.69 842.1337994 110.380944 678.2783084 6.782783084
120 Aug-05 757.4 843.050515 109.7244943 690.2743137 6.902743137
121 Sep-05 749.03 843.9373841 106.4237817 703.8182522 7.038182522
122 Oct-05 815.14 844.7953475 104.0159813 783.6680382 7.836680382
123 Nov-05 879.53 845.6253186 92.26314862 953.2841803 9.532841803
124 Dec-05 849.42 846.4281836 89.89484152 944.9040519 9.449040519

125 Jan-06 849.75 847.2048027 87.50457237 971.0921121 9.710921121
126 Feb-06 821.46 847.9560103 89.31537968 919.7296176 9.197296176
127 Mar-06 808.86 848.6826159 97.6164217 828.610582 8.28610582
128 Apr-06 800.33 849.3854047 101.7102002 786.872898 7.86872898
129 May-06 800.19 850.0651379 103.8383672 770.6111154 7.706111154
130 Jun-06 665.84 850.7225542 107.3118674 620.4719165 6.204719165
131 Jul-06 734.4 851.3583693 110.380944 665.3322332 6.653322332
132 Aug-06 830.84 851.9732773 109.7244943 757.2055859 7.572055859
133 Sep-06 878.63 852.567951 106.4237817 825.5955449 8.255955449
134 Oct-06 1036 853.1430426 104.0159813 996.0007944 9.960007944
135 Nov-06 931.12 853.699184 92.26314862 1009.20033 10.0920033
136 Dec-06 792.8 854.2369877 89.89484152 881.9193477 8.819193477

137 Jan-07 797.09 854.7570472 87.50457237 910.9123997 9.109123997
138 Feb-07 841.82 855.2599374 89.31537968 942.5252437 9.425252437
139 Mar-07 811.34 855.7462155 97.6164217 831.1511381 8.311511381
140 Apr-07 855.84 856.2164209 101.7102002 841.4495284 8.414495284
141 May-07 886.84 856.6710765 103.8383672 854.0581132 8.540581132
142 Jun-07 935.34 857.1106885 107.3118674 871.6090988 8.716090988
143 Jul-07 1142.48 857.5357472 110.380944 1035.033728 10.35033728
144 Aug-07 1231.13 857.9467274 109.7244943 1122.019297 11.22019297
145 Sep-07 1032.22 858.344089 106.4237817 969.9147916 9.699147916
146 Oct-07 974.51 858.728277 104.0159813 936.8848785 9.368848785
147 Nov-07 1045.7 859.0997226 92.26314862 1133.388591 11.33388591
148 Dec-07 925.87 859.4588431 89.89484152 1029.947864 10.29947864

149 Jan-08 1029.65 859.8060425 87.50457237 1176.681369 11.76681369
150 Feb-08 1049.03 860.1417119 89.31537968 1174.523362 11.74523362
151 Mar-08 1230.77 860.4662298 97.6164217 1260.822696 12.60822696
152 Apr-08 1233.72 860.7799627 101.7102002 1212.975687 12.12975687
153 May-08 1317.69 861.0832653 103.8383672 1268.981818 12.68981818
154 Jun-08 1414.43 861.3764807 107.3118674 1318.055528 13.18055528
155 Jul-08 1431.69 861.6599411 110.380944 1297.044533 12.97044533
156 Aug-08 1131.85 861.9339681 109.7244943 1031.538133 10.31538133
157 Sep-08 923.97 862.1988726 106.4237817 868.1988045 8.681988045
158 Oct-08 909.83 862.4549557 104.0159813 874.7021262 8.747021262
159 Nov-08 853.34 862.7025085 92.26314862 924.8979823 9.248979823
160 Dec-08 761.72 862.941813 89.89484152 847.3456175 8.473456175

161 Jan-09 782.89 863.1731418 87.50457237 894.6846763 8.946846763
162 Feb-09 766.46 863.3967585 89.31537968 858.1500776 8.581500776
163 Mar-09 847.05 863.6129185 97.6164217 867.7330978 8.677330978
164 Apr-09 904.52 863.8218685 101.7102002 889.3110014 8.893110014
165 May-09 888.24 864.0238474 103.8383672 855.4063624 8.554063624
166 Jun-09 816.12 864.2190862 107.3118674 760.512346 7.60512346
167 Jul-09 715.36 864.4078084 110.380944 648.082879 6.48082879
168 Aug-09 836.29 864.5902301 109.7244943 762.1725717 7.621725717
169 Sep-09 1030.95 864.7665604 106.4237817 968.7214493 9.687214493
170 Oct-09 1152.61 864.9370015 104.0159813 1108.108567 11.08108567
171 Nov-09 1154.41 865.101749 92.26314862 1251.214615 12.51214615
172 Dec-09 1013.58 865.260992 89.89484152 1127.517422 11.27517422

173 Jan-10 1089.26 865.4149135 87.50457237 1244.803523 12.44803523
174 Feb-10 981.59 865.5636904 89.31537968 1099.015649 10.99015649
175 Mar-10 954.72 865.7074938 97.6164217 978.0321624 9.780321624
176 Apr-10 994.73 865.8464893 101.7102002 978.0041706 9.780041706
177 May-10 1054.71 865.9808367 103.8383672 1015.722828 10.15722828
178 Jun-10 1201.27 866.1106909 107.3118674 1119.419529 11.19419529
179 Jul-10 1302.41 866.2362014 110.380944 1179.922867 11.79922867
180 Aug-10 1139.33 866.357513 109.7244943 1038.355207 10.38355207
181 Sep-10 1046.85 866.4747657 106.4237817 983.661719 9.83661719
182 Oct-10 1086.32 866.5880945 104.0159813 1044.377976 10.44377976
183 Nov-10 823.35 866.6976305 92.26314862 892.3931302 8.923931302

185 Jan-11 734.61 866.9058255 87.50457237 839.5104166 8.395104166
186 Feb-11 884.96 867.004725 89.31537968 990.8259957 9.908259957
187 Mar-11 852.44 867.100313 97.6164217 873.2547097 8.732547097
188 Apr-11 880.97 867.1926999 101.7102002 866.1569815 8.661569815
189 May-11 836.41 867.2819927 103.8383672 805.4922494 8.054922494
190 Jun-11 916.4 867.3682947 107.3118674 853.9596063 8.539596063
191 Jul-11 971.56 867.4517057 110.380944 880.1881597 8.801881597
192 Aug-11 948.83 867.5323224 109.7244943 864.738549 8.64738549
193 Sep-11 1194.94 867.6102381 106.4237817 1122.812948 11.22812948
194 Oct-11 1032.7 867.685543 104.0159813 992.828205 9.92828205
195 Nov-11 681.65 867.7583245 92.26314862 738.8106847 7.388106847
196 Dec-11 757.73 867.8286669 89.89484152 842.9070981 8.429070981

197 Jan-12 730.58 867.8966517 87.50457237 834.9049429 8.349049429
198 Feb-12 778.64 867.9623578 89.31537968 871.7871466 8.717871466
199 Mar-12 802.57 868.0258614 97.6164217 822.166994 8.22166994
200 Apr-12 822.89 868.0872361 101.7102002 809.0535642 8.090535642
201 May-12 755.83 868.1465533 103.8383672 727.8908751 7.278908751
202 Jun-12 952.76 868.2038817 107.3118674 887.842159 8.87842159
203 Jul-12 1015.16 868.2592879 110.380944 919.6877312 9.196877312
204 Aug-12 970.39 868.3128362 109.7244943 884.3877624 8.843877624
205 Sep-12 1000.89 868.3645889 106.4237817 940.4758828 9.404758828
206 Oct-12 980.85 868.4146059 104.0159813 942.9800957 9.429800957
207 Nov-12 846.84 868.4629456 92.26314862 917.852916 9.17852916
208 Dec-12 758.09 868.5096639 89.89484152 843.307566 8.43307566

209 Jan-13 750.03 868.5548152 87.50457237 857.1323529 8.571323529
210 Feb-13 819.58 868.598452 89.31537968 917.624717 9.17624717
211 Mar-13 908.1 868.6406251 97.6164217 930.2738045 9.302738045
212 Apr-13 980.49 868.6813833 101.7102002 964.0036083 9.640036083
213 May-13 1057.01 868.7207743 103.8383672 1017.937809 10.17937809
214 Jun-13 1157.65 868.7588436 107.3118674 1078.771648 10.78771648
215 Jul-13 1121.23 868.7956358 110.380944 1015.782217 10.15782217
216 Aug-13 1190.81 868.8311934 109.7244943 1085.272716 10.85272716
217 Sep-13 1119.72 868.865558 106.4237817 1052.133257 10.52133257
218 Oct-13 997.26 868.8987695 104.0159813 958.7565176 9.587565176
219 Nov-13 766 868.9308665 92.26314862 830.2339683 8.302339683
220 Dec-13 739.98 868.9618865 89.89484152 823.1618049 8.231618049

221 Jan-14 753.15 868.9918654 87.50457237 860.6978808 8.606978808
222 Feb-14 770.93 869.0208383 89.31537968 863.1548147 8.631548147
223 Mar-14 808.11 869.0488388 97.6164217 827.8422686 8.278422686
224 Apr-14 846.89 869.0758996 101.7102002 832.6500176 8.326500176
225 May-14 834.98 869.1020521 103.8383672 804.1151091 8.041151091
226 Jun-14 834.56 869.1273269 107.3118674 777.6959069 7.776959069
227 Jul-14 783.04 869.1517533 110.380944 709.3978103 7.093978103
228 Aug-14 768.17 869.1753598 109.7244943 700.0898066 7.000898066
229 Sep-14 771.03 869.1981739 106.4237817 724.4903235 7.244903235
230 Oct-14 732.15 869.2202222 104.0159813 703.8822216 7.038822216
231 Nov-14 717.87 869.2415304 92.26314862 778.0679619 7.780679619
232 Dec-14 769.23 869.2621233 89.89484152 855.6998232 8.556998232

233 Jan-15 758.02 869.2820249 87.50457237 866.2633043 8.662633043
234 Feb-15 704.17 869.3012584 89.31537968 788.4084494 7.884084494
235 Mar-15 633.29 869.3198462 97.6164217 648.7535488 6.487535488
236 Apr-15 612.13 869.3378099 101.7102002 601.8373759 6.018373759
237 May-15 608.64 869.3551706 103.8383672 586.1417279 5.861417279
238 Jun-15 629.9 869.3719484 107.3118674 586.9807464 5.869807464
239 Jul-15 640.11 869.3881629 110.380944 579.9098799 5.799098799
240 Aug-15 684.28 869.403833 109.7244943 623.634681 6.23634681
241 Sep-15 631.91 869.4189769 106.4237817 593.7676619 5.937676619

0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1
7
13
19
25
31
37
43
49
55
61
67
73
79
85
91
97
103
109
115
121
127
133
139
145
151
157
163
169
175
181
187
193
199
205
211
217
223
229
235
241
Residuals
Residuals

t Months yt Trend Values Seasonal Indices yt*100/(Tt*st) Residuals
1 Sep-95 537.55 140.1202958 106.4237817 3.604783062 0.036047831
2 Oct-95 546.21 148.9834567 104.0159813 3.524694897 0.035246949
3 Nov-95 564.24 158.0812077 92.26314862 3.868613599 0.038686136
4 Dec-95 443.23 167.4008658 89.89484152 2.945348419 0.029453484
5 Jan-96 417.53 176.9291779 87.50457237 2.69685427 0.026968543
6 Feb-96 434.47 186.6524081 89.31537968 2.606153237 0.026061532
7 Mar-96 474.39 196.5564243 97.6164217 2.472437937 0.024724379
8 Apr-96 528.79 206.6267836 101.7102002 2.516124398 0.025161244
9 May-96 520.09 216.8488146 103.8383672 2.309742686 0.023097427
10 Jun-96 559.05 227.2076975 107.3118674 2.292872254 0.022928723
11 Jul-96 527.45 237.6885408 110.380944 2.010383671 0.020103837
12 Aug-96 527.25 248.2764534 109.7244943 1.935429996 0.0193543
13 Sep-96 528.42 258.9566136 106.4237817 1.917403663 0.019174037
14 Oct-96 473.7 269.7143327 104.0159813 1.688493094 0.016884931
15 Nov-96 474.99 280.5351144 92.26314862 1.835139003 0.01835139
16 Dec-96 433.88 291.4047095 89.89484152 1.656297301 0.016562973

17 Jan-97 424.6 302.3091651 87.50457237 1.605084605 0.016050846
18 Feb-97 406.73 313.2348696 89.31537968 1.453817378 0.014538174
19 Mar-97 419.62 324.1685924 97.6164217 1.326057513 0.013260575
20 Apr-97 451.19 335.0975192 101.7102002 1.323804167 0.013238042
21 May-97 470.14 346.009282 103.8383672 1.30852373 0.013085237
22 Jun-97 439.75 356.8919852 107.3118674 1.148209937 0.011482099
23 Jul-97 515.5 367.7342273 110.380944 1.269990614 0.012699906
24 Aug-97 571.51 378.525118 109.7244943 1.376022523 0.013760225
25 Sep-97 547.13 389.2542916 106.4237817 1.320743348 0.013207433
26 Oct-97 493.47 399.9119175 104.0159813 1.186304938 0.011863049
27 Nov-97 414.98 410.4887057 92.26314862 1.09571519 0.010957152
28 Dec-97 352.94 420.9759105 89.89484152 0.932628892 0.009326289

29 Jan-98 361.63 431.3653306 87.50457237 0.958050644 0.009580506
30 Feb-98 394.7 441.6493067 89.31537968 1.000606511 0.010006065
31 Mar-98 408.36 451.8207166 97.6164217 0.925878867 0.009258789
32 Apr-98 443.83 461.8729679 101.7102002 0.944777627 0.009447776
33 May-98 448.75 471.7999893 103.8383672 0.91598568 0.009159857
34 Jun-98 457.59 481.5962196 107.3118674 0.885412611 0.008854126
35 Jul-98 542.93 491.2565955 110.380944 1.001247262 0.010012473
36 Aug-98 506.8 500.7765377 109.7244943 0.922335756 0.009223358
37 Sep-98 499.06 510.1519365 106.4237817 0.919209567 0.009192096
38 Oct-98 433 519.379136 104.0159813 0.80149963 0.008014996
39 Nov-98 428.24 528.4549176 92.26314862 0.878316447 0.008783164
40 Dec-98 383.92 537.3764829 89.89484152 0.794744094 0.007947441

41 Jan-99 417.37 546.1414366 87.50457237 0.873344027 0.00873344
42 Feb-99 403.97 554.7477682 89.31537968 0.815318509 0.008153185
43 Mar-99 439.64 563.1938342 97.6164217 0.799680349 0.007996803
44 Apr-99 447.14 571.4783401 101.7102002 0.769270784 0.007692708
45 May-99 444.25 579.6003222 103.8383672 0.738143785 0.007381438
46 Jun-99 484.44 587.5591296 107.3118674 0.768317392 0.007683174
47 Jul-99 460.27 595.3544067 110.380944 0.700394928 0.007003949
48 Aug-99 492.36 602.9860755 109.7244943 0.744169544 0.007441695
49 Sep-99 471.85 610.4543182 106.4237817 0.726293408 0.007262934
50 Oct-99 517.99 617.7595608 104.0159813 0.80612396 0.00806124
51 Nov-99 340.37 624.9024566 92.26314862 0.590351636 0.005903516
52 Dec-99 339.07 631.8838701 89.89484152 0.596921643 0.005969216

53 Jan-00 348.9 638.7048617 87.50457237 0.624266458 0.006242665
54 Feb-00 323.59 645.3666728 89.31537968 0.561386945 0.005613869
55 Mar-00 299.18 651.8707115 97.6164217 0.470162736 0.004701627
56 Apr-00 337.49 658.2185387 101.7102002 0.504111134 0.005041111
57 May-00 411.02 664.4118547 103.8383672 0.595755049 0.00595755
58 Jun-00 426.49 670.4524869 107.3118674 0.592779389 0.005927794
59 Jul-00 401.78 676.3423773 110.380944 0.53818007 0.005381801
60 Aug-00 392.32 682.0835712 109.7244943 0.524202722 0.005242027
61 Sep-00 364.71 687.6782064 106.4237817 0.498337677 0.004983377
62 Oct-00 379.84 693.1285024 104.0159813 0.52684986 0.005268499
63 Nov-00 364.21 698.4367507 92.26314862 0.565192658 0.005651927
64 Dec-00 309.02 703.6053056 89.89484152 0.488565405 0.004885654

65 Jan-01 348.93 708.6365756 87.50457237 0.562709179 0.005627092
66 Feb-01 407.17 713.5330147 89.31537968 0.63890377 0.006389038
67 Mar-01 554.81 718.2971148 97.6164217 0.79125647 0.007912565
68 Apr-01 629.72 722.9313988 101.7102002 0.856418204 0.008564182
69 May-01 734.34 727.4384133 103.8383672 0.972171989 0.00972172
70 Jun-01 830.56 731.8207226 107.3118674 1.057592973 0.01057593
71 Jul-01 962.94 736.0809025 110.380944 1.185167062 0.011851671
72 Aug-01 784.58 740.2215354 109.7244943 0.96598844 0.009659884
73 Sep-01 577.54 744.2452043 106.4237817 0.729167556 0.007291676
74 Oct-01 423.63 748.154489 104.0159813 0.544371464 0.005443715
75 Nov-01 466 751.9519611 92.26314862 0.671687937 0.006716879
76 Dec-01 425.76 755.6401805 89.89484152 0.626779874 0.006267799

77 Jan-02 443.71 759.2216915 87.50457237 0.667882189 0.006678822
78 Feb-02 454.62 762.6990193 89.31537968 0.66737372 0.006673737
79 Mar-02 590.33 766.0746674 97.6164217 0.789406811 0.007894068
80 Apr-02 579.16 769.3511144 101.7102002 0.74013248 0.007401325
81 May-02 635.51 772.5308118 103.8383672 0.792225337 0.007922253
82 Jun-02 635.47 775.6161815 107.3118674 0.763484878 0.007634849
83 Jul-02 653.47 778.6096141 110.380944 0.760346915 0.007603469
84 Aug-02 637.6 781.5134667 109.7244943 0.743546707 0.007435467
85 Sep-02 626.68 784.3300617 106.4237817 0.750772379 0.007507724
86 Oct-02 614.28 787.0616853 104.0159813 0.750339024 0.00750339
87 Nov-02 476.8 789.7105861 92.26314862 0.654395065 0.006543951

89 Jan-03 547.13 794.7690208 87.50457237 0.786717573 0.007867176
90 Feb-03 505.06 797.1828562 89.31537968 0.709347064 0.007093471
91 Mar-03 633.16 799.5225706 97.6164217 0.811259617 0.008112596
92 Apr-03 700 801.7902129 101.7102002 0.85836654 0.008583665
93 May-03 685 803.9877904 103.8383672 0.820508846 0.008205088
94 Jun-03 719.44 806.1172688 107.3118674 0.831665342 0.008316653
95 Jul-03 749.65 808.1805719 110.380944 0.840341933 0.008403419
96 Aug-03 793.2 810.1795813 109.7244943 0.892273149 0.008922731
97 Sep-03 782.99 812.1161371 106.4237817 0.905939901 0.009059399
98 Oct-03 836.15 813.9920374 104.0159813 0.987561082 0.009875611
99 Nov-03 660.98 815.8090387 92.26314862 0.87815572 0.008781557
100 Dec-03 582.95 817.5688562 89.89484152 0.793180806 0.007931808

101 Jan-04 718.27 819.273164 87.50457237 1.001908939 0.010019089
102 Feb-04 831.05 820.9235957 89.31537968 1.133439038 0.01133439
103 Mar-04 934.72 822.5217443 97.6164217 1.164156222 0.011641562
104 Apr-04 858.92 824.0691634 101.7102002 1.024765611 0.010247656
105 May-04 872.75 825.5673668 103.8383672 1.018074334 0.010180743
106 Jun-04 920.82 827.01783 107.3118674 1.037557367 0.010375574
107 Jul-04 994.18 828.4219899 110.380944 1.087224673 0.010872247
108 Aug-04 935.59 829.7812459 109.7244943 1.027586448 0.010275864
109 Sep-04 901.3 831.0969601 106.4237817 1.019011277 0.010190113
110 Oct-04 921.2 832.3704586 104.0159813 1.063989153 0.010639892
111 Nov-04 715.34 833.6030312 92.26314862 0.930089954 0.0093009
112 Dec-04 686.13 834.7959328 89.89484152 0.914305459 0.009143055

113 Jan-05 640.12 835.950384 87.50457237 0.875084816 0.008750848
114 Feb-05 742.36 837.0675712 89.31537968 0.992950953 0.00992951
115 Mar-05 1109.06 838.148648 97.6164217 1.355536167 0.013555362
116 Apr-05 1174.97 839.1947354 101.7102002 1.376573859 0.013765739
117 May-05 1095.68 840.2069226 103.8383672 1.255855374 0.012558554
118 Jun-05 934.69 841.186268 107.3118674 1.035446513 0.010354465
119 Jul-05 748.69 842.1337994 110.380944 0.805428198 0.008054282
120 Aug-05 757.4 843.050515 109.7244943 0.818781676 0.008187817
121 Sep-05 749.03 843.9373841 106.4237817 0.833969754 0.008339698
122 Oct-05 815.14 844.7953475 104.0159813 0.927642465 0.009276425
123 Nov-05 879.53 845.6253186 92.26314862 1.127312723 0.011273127
124 Dec-05 849.42 846.4281836 89.89484152 1.116342851 0.011163429

125 Jan-06 849.75 847.2048027 87.50457237 1.14623065 0.011462307
126 Feb-06 821.46 847.9560103 89.31537968 1.084643079 0.010846431
127 Mar-06 808.86 848.6826159 97.6164217 0.976349187 0.009763492
128 Apr-06 800.33 849.3854047 101.7102002 0.92640266 0.009264027
129 May-06 800.19 850.0651379 103.8383672 0.906531842 0.009065318
130 Jun-06 665.84 850.7225542 107.3118674 0.729346969 0.00729347
131 Jul-06 734.4 851.3583693 110.380944 0.781494911 0.007814949
132 Aug-06 830.84 851.9732773 109.7244943 0.888766827 0.008887668
133 Sep-06 878.63 852.567951 106.4237817 0.968363336 0.009683633
134 Oct-06 1036 853.1430426 104.0159813 1.167448768 0.011674488
135 Nov-06 931.12 853.699184 92.26314862 1.182149812 0.011821498
136 Dec-06 792.8 854.2369877 89.89484152 1.032405949 0.010324059

137 Jan-07 797.09 854.7570472 87.50457237 1.065697443 0.010656974
138 Feb-07 841.82 855.2599374 89.31537968 1.102033665 0.011020337
139 Mar-07 811.34 855.7462155 97.6164217 0.971258912 0.009712589
140 Apr-07 855.84 856.2164209 101.7102002 0.982753318 0.009827533
141 May-07 886.84 856.6710765 103.8383672 0.996949864 0.009969499
142 Jun-07 935.34 857.1106885 107.3118674 1.016915447 0.010169154
143 Jul-07 1142.48 857.5357472 110.380944 1.206986101 0.012069861
144 Aug-07 1231.13 857.9467274 109.7244943 1.307795999 0.01307796
145 Sep-07 1032.22 858.344089 106.4237817 1.129983656 0.011299837
146 Oct-07 974.51 858.728277 104.0159813 1.091014356 0.010910144
147 Nov-07 1045.7 859.0997226 92.26314862 1.319274772 0.013192748
148 Dec-07 925.87 859.4588431 89.89484152 1.198367871 0.011983679

149 Jan-08 1029.65 859.8060425 87.50457237 1.3685428 0.013685428
150 Feb-08 1049.03 860.1417119 89.31537968 1.36549983 0.013654998
151 Mar-08 1230.77 860.4662298 97.6164217 1.465278534 0.014652785
152 Apr-08 1233.72 860.7799627 101.7102002 1.409158832 0.014091588
153 May-08 1317.69 861.0832653 103.8383672 1.47370396 0.01473704
154 Jun-08 1414.43 861.3764807 107.3118674 1.530173574 0.015301736
155 Jul-08 1431.69 861.6599411 110.380944 1.505285868 0.015052859
156 Aug-08 1131.85 861.9339681 109.7244943 1.196771645 0.011967716
157 Sep-08 923.97 862.1988726 106.4237817 1.006958872 0.010069589
158 Oct-08 909.83 862.4549557 104.0159813 1.01420036 0.010142004
159 Nov-08 853.34 862.7025085 92.26314862 1.072093767 0.010720938
160 Dec-08 761.72 862.941813 89.89484152 0.981926712 0.009819267

161 Jan-09 782.89 863.1731418 87.50457237 1.036506621 0.010365066
162 Feb-09 766.46 863.3967585 89.31537968 0.99392321 0.009939232
163 Mar-09 847.05 863.6129185 97.6164217 1.004770863 0.010047709
164 Apr-09 904.52 863.8218685 101.7102002 1.029507395 0.010295074
165 May-09 888.24 864.0238474 103.8383672 0.990026334 0.009900263
166 Jun-09 816.12 864.2190862 107.3118674 0.879999479 0.008799995
167 Jul-09 715.36 864.4078084 110.380944 0.749742046 0.00749742
168 Aug-09 836.29 864.5902301 109.7244943 0.881541966 0.00881542
169 Sep-09 1030.95 864.7665604 106.4237817 1.120211504 0.011202115
170 Oct-09 1152.61 864.9370015 104.0159813 1.281143673 0.012811437
171 Nov-09 1154.41 865.101749 92.26314862 1.446320756 0.014463208
172 Dec-09 1013.58 865.260992 89.89484152 1.303095173 0.013030952

173 Jan-10 1089.26 865.4149135 87.50457237 1.438389267 0.014383893
174 Feb-10 981.59 865.5636904 89.31537968 1.269710897 0.012697109
175 Mar-10 954.72 865.7074938 97.6164217 1.129748985 0.01129749
176 Apr-10 994.73 865.8464893 101.7102002 1.129535296 0.011295353
177 May-10 1054.71 865.9808367 103.8383672 1.172916056 0.011729161
178 Jun-10 1201.27 866.1106909 107.3118674 1.292467049 0.01292467
179 Jul-10 1302.41 866.2362014 110.380944 1.362126018 0.01362126
180 Aug-10 1139.33 866.357513 109.7244943 1.198529696 0.011985297
181 Sep-10 1046.85 866.4747657 106.4237817 1.135245662 0.011352457
182 Oct-10 1086.32 866.5880945 104.0159813 1.205160771 0.012051608
183 Nov-10 823.35 866.6976305 92.26314862 1.029647594 0.010296476
184 Dec-10 723.89 866.8035001 89.89484152 0.929003071 0.009290031

185 Jan-11 734.61 866.9058255 87.50457237 0.968398633 0.009683986
186 Feb-11 884.96 867.004725 89.31537968 1.142814989 0.01142815
187 Mar-11 852.44 867.100313 97.6164217 1.007097676 0.010070977
188 Apr-11 880.97 867.1926999 101.7102002 0.998805665 0.009988057
189 May-11 836.41 867.2819927 103.8383672 0.928754726 0.009287547
190 Jun-11 916.4 867.3682947 107.3118674 0.984540952 0.00984541
191 Jul-11 971.56 867.4517057 110.380944 1.014682609 0.010146826
192 Aug-11 948.83 867.5323224 109.7244943 0.996779632 0.009967796
193 Sep-11 1194.94 867.6102381 106.4237817 1.294144419 0.012941444
194 Oct-11 1032.7 867.685543 104.0159813 1.144225823 0.011442258
195 Nov-11 681.65 867.7583245 92.26314862 0.851401437 0.008514014
196 Dec-11 757.73 867.8286669 89.89484152 0.971282847 0.009712828

197 Jan-12 730.58 867.8966517 87.50457237 0.961986593 0.009619866
198 Feb-12 778.64 867.9623578 89.31537968 1.00440663 0.010044066
199 Mar-12 802.57 868.0258614 97.6164217 0.947168778 0.009471688
200 Apr-12 822.89 868.0872361 101.7102002 0.931995692 0.009319957
201 May-12 755.83 868.1465533 103.8383672 0.838442395 0.008384424
202 Jun-12 952.76 868.2038817 107.3118674 1.02261943 0.010226194
203 Jul-12 1015.16 868.2592879 110.380944 1.059231665 0.010592317
204 Aug-12 970.39 868.3128362 109.7244943 1.018512828 0.010185128
205 Sep-12 1000.89 868.3645889 106.4237817 1.083042647 0.010830426
206 Oct-12 980.85 868.4146059 104.0159813 1.085863929 0.010858639
207 Nov-12 846.84 868.4629456 92.26314862 1.056870556 0.010568706
208 Dec-12 758.09 868.5096639 89.89484152 0.970982363 0.009709824

209 Jan-13 750.03 868.5548152 87.50457237 0.986848887 0.009868489
210 Feb-13 819.58 868.598452 89.31537968 1.056442957 0.01056443
211 Mar-13 908.1 868.6406251 97.6164217 1.0709536 0.010709536
212 Apr-13 980.49 868.6813833 101.7102002 1.109732091 0.011097321
213 May-13 1057.01 868.7207743 103.8383672 1.171766393 0.011717664
214 Jun-13 1157.65 868.7588436 107.3118674 1.241738897 0.012417389
215 Jul-13 1121.23 868.7956358 110.380944 1.169184299 0.011691843
216 Aug-13 1190.81 868.8311934 109.7244943 1.249118039 0.01249118
217 Sep-13 1119.72 868.865558 106.4237817 1.210927568 0.012109276
218 Oct-13 997.26 868.8987695 104.0159813 1.10341567 0.011034157
219 Nov-13 766 868.9308665 92.26314862 0.955466079 0.009554661
220 Dec-13 739.98 868.9618865 89.89484152 0.947293337 0.009472933

221 Jan-14 753.15 868.9918654 87.50457237 0.990455625 0.009904556
222 Feb-14 770.93 869.0208383 89.31537968 0.993249847 0.009932498
223 Mar-14 808.11 869.0488388 97.6164217 0.952584287 0.009525843
224 Apr-14 846.89 869.0758996 101.7102002 0.95808665 0.009580867
225 May-14 834.98 869.1020521 103.8383672 0.925225187 0.009252252
226 Jun-14 834.56 869.1273269 107.3118674 0.894800891 0.008948009
227 Jul-14 783.04 869.1517533 110.380944 0.81619557 0.008161956
228 Aug-14 768.17 869.1753598 109.7244943 0.805464396 0.008054644
229 Sep-14 771.03 869.1981739 106.4237817 0.833515699 0.008335157
230 Oct-14 732.15 869.2202222 104.0159813 0.809785833 0.008097858
231 Nov-14 717.87 869.2415304 92.26314862 0.895111352 0.008951114
232 Dec-14 769.23 869.2621233 89.89484152 0.984397917 0.009843979

233 Jan-15 758.02 869.2820249 87.50457237 0.99652734 0.009965273
234 Feb-15 704.17 869.3012584 89.31537968 0.906945023 0.00906945
235 Mar-15 633.29 869.3198462 97.6164217 0.746277163 0.007462772
236 Apr-15 612.13 869.3378099 101.7102002 0.69229403 0.00692294
237 May-15 608.64 869.3551706 103.8383672 0.674225849 0.006742258
238 Jun-15 629.9 869.3719484 107.3118674 0.675177923 0.006751779
239 Jul-15 640.11 869.3881629 110.380944 0.667032178 0.006670322
240 Aug-15 684.28 869.403833 109.7244943 0.717313011 0.00717313
241 Sep-15 631.91 869.4189769 106.4237817 0.682947667 0.006829477

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31
36
41
46
51
56
61
66
71
76
81
86
91
96
101
106
111
116
121
126
131
136
141
146
151
156
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Series1

t yt ∆yt ∆2yt ∆3yt ∆4yt ∆5yt ∆6yt ∆7yt ∆8yt ∆9yt ∆10yt ∆11yt
Sep-95 537.55 8.66
Oct-95 546.21 18.03 9.37 -148.41
Nov-95 564.24 -121.01 -139.04 234.35 382.76 -669.78
Dec-95 443.23 -25.7 95.31 -52.67 -287.02 320.03 989.81
-
1331.69

Jan-96 417.53 16.94 42.64 -19.66 33.01 -21.85 -341.88 283.49 1615.18 -1502.62
Feb-96 434.47 39.92 22.98 -8.5 11.16 -80.24 -58.39 396.05 112.56 -1521.01 -18.39 5501.47
Mar-96 474.39 54.4 14.48 -77.58 -69.08 257.42 337.66 -1012.4 -1408.45 3962.07 5483.08 -15207.8
Apr-96 528.79 -8.7 -63.1 110.76 188.34 -417.32 -674.74 1541.22 2553.62 -5762.65 -9724.7221622.47
May-96 520.09 38.96 47.66 -118.22 -228.98 449.16 866.48 -1667.81 -3209.03 6135.1 11897.75 -22582.5
Jun-96 559.05 -31.6 -70.56 101.96 220.18 -352.17 -801.33 1258.26 2926.07 -4549.63 -10684.716555.73
Jul-96 527.45 -0.2 31.4 -30.03 -131.99 104.76 456.93 -365.3 -1623.56 1321.37 5871 -4884.41
Aug-96 527.25 1.17 1.37 -57.26 -27.23 196.39 91.63 -667.49 -302.19 2307.96 986.59 -8071.26
Sep-96 528.42 -54.72 -55.89 111.9 169.16 -379.47 -575.86 1338.28 2005.77 -4776.71 -7084.6717216.93
Oct-96 473.7 1.29 56.01 -98.41 -210.31 382.95 762.42 -1432.66 -2770.94 5355.5510132.26 -20031.7
Nov-96 474.99 -41.11 -42.4 74.23 172.64 -287.29 -670.24 1151.95 2584.61 -4543.89 -9899.4417698.97
Dec-96 433.88 -9.28 31.83 -40.42 -114.65 194.42 481.71 -807.33 -1959.28 3255.64 7799.53 -13022.4

Jan-97 424.6 -17.87 -8.59 39.35 79.77 -131.2 -325.62 489.03 1296.36 -1967.21 -5222.85 8244.96
Feb-97 406.73 12.89 30.76 -12.08 -51.43 32.21 163.41 -181.82 -670.85 1054.9 3022.11 -5518.29
Mar-97 419.62 31.57 18.68 -31.3 -19.22 13.8 -18.41 202.23 384.05 -1441.28 -2496.18 7341.02
Apr-97 451.19 18.95 -12.62 -36.72 -5.42 197.62 183.82 -855 -1057.23 3403.56 4844.84 -13206.3
May-97 470.14 -30.39 -49.34 155.48 192.2 -473.56 -671.18 1491.33 2346.33 -4957.87 -8361.4317146.16
Jun-97 439.75 75.75 106.14 -125.88 -281.36 346.59 820.15 -1120.21 -2611.54 3826.86 8784.73 -13475.2
Jul-97 515.5 56.01 -19.74 -60.65 65.23 46.53 -300.06 95.11 1215.32 -863.57 -4690.43 4406.16
Aug-97 571.51 -24.38 -80.39 51.11 111.76 -158.42 -204.95 446.86 351.75 -1147.84 -284.27 2594.95
Sep-97 547.13 -53.66 -29.28 4.45 -46.66 83.49 241.91 -349.23 -796.09 1162.84 2310.68 -3551.17
Oct-97 493.47 -78.49 -24.83 41.28 36.83 -23.83 -107.32 17.52 366.75 -77.65 -1240.49 484.86
Nov-97 414.98 -62.04 16.45 54.28 13 -113.63 -89.8 306.62 289.1 -833.28 -755.63 2130.35
Dec-97 352.94 8.69 70.73 -46.35 -100.63 103.19 216.82 -237.56 -544.18 541.44 1374.72 -1053.08

Jan-98 361.63 33.07 24.38 -43.79 2.56 82.45 -20.74 -240.3 -2.74 863.08 321.64 -3253.23
Feb-98 394.7 13.66 -19.41 41.22 85.01 -178.59 -261.04 620.04 860.34 -2068.51 -2931.59 6765.59
Mar-98 408.36 35.47 21.81 -52.36 -93.58 180.41 359 -588.13 -1208.17 1765.49 3834 -4939.02
Apr-98 443.83 4.92 -30.55 34.47 86.83 -48.72 -229.13 -30.81 557.32 660.47 -1105.02 -4090.04
May-98 448.75 8.84 3.92 72.58 38.11 -308.66 -259.94 1186.98 1217.79 -4534.59 -5195.0617406.35
Jun-98 457.59 85.34 76.5 -197.97 -270.55 618.38 927.04 -2129.82 -3316.8 7676.7 12211.29 -28375
Jul-98 542.93 -36.13 -121.47 149.86 347.83 -584.4 -1202.78 2230.08 4359.9 -8486.99 -16163.732409.97
Aug-98 506.8 -7.74 28.39 -86.71 -236.57 442.9 1027.3 -1897.01 -4127.09 7759.2916246.28 -31137.3
Sep-98 499.06 -66.06 -58.32 119.62 206.33 -426.81 -869.71 1735.19 3632.2 -7131.68 -14891 29107.86
Oct-98 433 -4.76 61.3 -100.86 -220.48 438.67 865.48 -1764.29 -3499.48 7085.2114216.89 -28488.1
Nov-98 428.24 -44.32 -39.56 117.33 218.19 -460.14 -898.81 1821.44 3585.73 -7185.99 -14271.228354.34
Dec-98 383.92 33.45 77.77 -124.62 -241.95 462.49 922.63 -1778.82 -3600.26 6897.1514083.14 -26784.6

Jan-99 417.37 -13.4 -46.85 95.92 220.54 -393.7 -856.19 1518.07 3296.89 -5804.35 -12701.522192.94
Feb-99 403.97 35.67 49.07 -77.24 -173.16 268.18 661.88 -989.39 -2507.46 3687.09 9491.44 -13825.6
Mar-99 439.64 7.5 -28.17 17.78 95.02 -59.33 -327.51 190.24 1179.63 -647.03 -4334.12 2293.63
Apr-99 447.14 -2.89 -10.39 53.47 35.69 -196.6 -137.27 722.84 532.6 -2687.52 -2040.4910076.65
May-99 444.25 40.19 43.08 -107.44 -160.91 388.97 585.57 -1432.08 -2154.92 5348.64 8036.16 -20350.7
Jun-99 484.44 -24.17 -64.36 120.62 228.06 -457.54 -846.51 1761.64 3193.72 -6965.85 -12314.527896.24
Jul-99 460.27 32.09 56.26 -108.86 -229.48 457.59 915.13 -2010.49 -3772.13 8615.9 15581.75 -35968.5
Aug-99 492.36 -20.51 -52.6 119.25 228.11 -637.77 -1095.36 2833.28 4843.77 -11770.9 -20386.847474.46
Sep-99 471.85 46.14 66.65 -290.41 -409.66 1100.15 1737.92 -4093.83 -6927.11 15316.827087.68 -57750.8
Oct-99 517.99 -177.62 -223.76 400.08 690.49 -1255.76 -2355.91 4295.86 8389.69 -15346.3 -30663.156327.64
Nov-99 340.37 -1.3 176.32 -165.19 -565.27 684.19 1939.95 -2660.75 -6956.61 10318.24 25664.54 -40083.9
Dec-99 339.07 9.83 11.13 -46.27 118.92 -36.61 -720.8 700.88 3361.63 -4101.16 -14419.419495.95

Jan-00 348.9 -25.31 -35.14 36.04 82.31 -56.53 -19.92 -38.65 -739.53 975.39 5076.55 -6470.25
Feb-00 323.59 -24.41 0.9 61.82 25.78 -115.1 -58.57 197.21 235.86 -418.31 -1393.7 1575.75
Mar-00 299.18 38.31 62.72 -27.5 -89.32 23.54 138.64 14.76 -182.45 -236.26 182.05 1074.65
Apr-00 337.49 73.53 35.22 -93.28 -65.78 176.94 153.4 -403.95 -418.71 1020.44 1256.7 -2714.38
May-00 411.02 15.47 -58.06 17.88 111.16 -73.61 -250.55 197.78 601.73 -437.24 -1457.68 646.86
Jun-00 426.49 -24.71 -40.18 55.43 37.55 -126.38 -52.77 362.27 164.49 -1248.06 -810.82 4703.32
Jul-00 401.78 -9.46 15.25 -33.4 -88.83 183.12 309.5 -721.3 -1083.57 2644.44 3892.5 -9485.48
Aug-00 392.32 -27.61 -18.15 60.89 94.29 -228.68 -411.8 839.57 1560.87 -2948.54 -5592.9810163.97
Sep-00 364.71 15.13 42.74 -73.5 -134.39 199.09 427.77 -548.1 -1387.67 1622.45 4570.99 -4967.09
Oct-00 379.84 -15.63 -30.76 -8.8 64.7 78.76 -120.33 -313.32 234.78 1226.35 -396.1 -4893.66
Nov-00 364.21 -55.19 -39.56 134.66 143.46 -354.89 -433.65 1147.81 1461.13 -4063.41 -5289.7615029.04
Dec-00 309.02 39.91 95.1 -76.77 -211.43 359.27 714.16 -1454.47 -2602.28 5675.87 9739.28 -21889.6

Jan-01 348.93 58.24 18.33 71.07 147.84 -381.04 -740.31 1619.12 3073.59 -6474.41 -12150.325338.44
Feb-01 407.17 147.64 89.4 -162.13 -233.2 497.77 878.81 -1781.7 -3400.82 6713.7513188.16 -26071.8
Mar-01 554.81 74.91 -72.73 102.44 264.57 -405.12 -902.89 1531.23 3312.93 -6169.85 -12883.625427.96
Apr-01 629.72 104.62 29.71 -38.11 -140.55 223.22 628.34 -1325.69 -2856.92 6374.5112544.36 -27972.5
May-01 734.34 96.22 -8.4 44.56 82.67 -474.13 -697.35 2191.9 3517.59 -9053.67 -15428.236302.54
Jun-01 830.56 132.38 36.16 -346.9 -391.46 1020.42 1494.55 -3344.18 -5536.08 11820.69 20874.36 -43755.9
Jul-01 962.94 -178.36 -310.74 282.06 628.96 -829.21 -1849.63 2940.43 6284.61 -11060.8 -22881.542624.36
Aug-01 784.58 -207.04 -28.68 81.81 -200.25 261.59 1090.8 -1835.77 -4776.2 8682.0519742.86 -37193.4
Sep-01 577.54 -153.91 53.13 143.15 61.34 -483.38 -744.97 2070.08 3905.85 -8768.49 -17450.5 36370.5
Oct-01 423.63 42.37 196.28 -278.89 -422.04 841.73 1325.11 -2792.56 -4862.64 10151.47 18919.96 -38889
Nov-01 466 -40.24 -82.61 140.8 419.69 -625.72 -1467.45 2496.27 5288.83 -9817.61 -19969.138841.86
Dec-01 425.76 17.95 58.19 -65.23 -206.03 403.1 1028.82 -2032.51 -4528.78 9055.1718872.78 -38152.4

Jan-02 443.71 10.91 -7.04 131.84 197.07 -600.59 -1003.69 2493.88 4526.39 -10224.5 -19279.641481.34
Feb-02 454.62 135.71 124.8 -271.68 -403.52 889.6 1490.19 -3204.18 -5698.06 11977.27 22201.72 -45755.6
Mar-02 590.33 -11.17 -146.88 214.4 486.08 -824.39 -1713.99 3075.03 6279.21 -11576.6 -23553.944053.34
Apr-02 579.16 56.35 67.52 -123.91 -338.31 536.65 1361.04 -2222.37 -5297.4 8922.8520499.46 -35345.6
May-02 635.51 -0.04 -56.39 74.43 198.34 -324.68 -861.33 1403.08 3625.45 -5923.33 -14846.2 24379.3
Jun-02 635.47 18 18.04 -51.91 -126.34 217.07 541.75 -894.8 -2297.88 3609.79 9533.12 -14410.8
Jul-02 653.47 -15.87 -33.87 38.82 90.73 -135.98 -353.05 417.11 1311.91 -1267.87 -4877.66 4196.17
Aug-02 637.6 -10.92 4.95 -6.43 -45.25 -71.92 64.06 461.15 44.04 -1949.36 -681.49 7078.7
Sep-02 626.68 -12.4 -1.48 -123.6 -117.17 453.29 525.21 -1444.17 -1905.32 4447.85 6397.21 -13297.8
Oct-02 614.28 -137.48 -125.08 212.52 336.12 -465.67 -918.96 1098.36 2542.53 -2452.74 -6900.59 4397.06
Nov-02 476.8 -50.04 87.44 82.97 -129.55 -286.27 179.4 1188.15 89.79 -4956.27 -2503.5320319.78
Dec-02 426.76 120.37 170.41 -332.85 -415.82 1081.28 1367.55 -3678.33 -4866.48 12859.98 17816.25 -45823.2

Jan-03 547.13 -42.07 -162.44 332.61 665.46 -1229.5 -2310.78 4315.17 7993.5 -15146.9 -28006.953701.63
Feb-03 505.06 128.1 170.17 -231.43 -564.04 774.89 2004.39 -2838.27 -7153.44 10547.77 25694.71 -39322.1
Mar-03 633.16 66.84 -61.26 -20.58 210.85 -58.99 -833.88 556.06 3394.33 -3079.57 -13627.314516.23
Apr-03 700 -15 -81.84 131.28 151.86 -336.81 -277.82 870.82 314.76 -2190.68 888.89 5019.72
May-03 685 34.44 49.44 -53.67 -184.95 256.19 593 -1005.1 -1875.92 3717.93 5908.61 -13592.2
Jun-03 719.44 30.21 -4.23 17.57 71.24 -155.91 -412.1 836.91 1842.01 -3965.69 -7683.6217540.78
Jul-03 749.65 43.55 13.34 -67.1 -84.67 268.9 424.81 -1286.77 -2123.68 5891.47 9857.16 -25468.9
Aug-03 793.2 -10.21 -53.76 117.13 184.23 -593.06 -861.96 2481.02 3767.79 -9720.3 -15611.837292.09
Sep-03 782.99 53.16 63.37 -291.7 -408.83 1026 1619.06 -3471.49 -5952.51 11960.02 21680.32 -42123.2
Oct-03 836.15 -175.17 -228.33 325.47 617.17 -826.43 -1852.43 2536.02 6007.51 -8482.86 -20442.929561.63
Nov-03 660.98 -78.03 97.14 116.21 -209.26 -142.84 683.59 60.67 -2475.35 635.89 9118.75 -4045.5
Dec-03 582.95 135.32 213.35 -235.89 -352.1 601.42 744.26 -1778.79 -1839.46 5709.14 5073.25 -19186.5

Jan-04 718.27 112.78 -22.54 13.43 249.32 -433.11 -1034.53 2090.89 3869.68 -8404.13 -14113.332017.49
Feb-04 831.05 103.67 -9.11 -170.36 -183.79 623.25 1056.36 -2443.56 -4534.45 9500.0917904.22 -36592.6
Mar-04 934.72 -75.8 -179.47 269.1 439.46 -763.95 -1387.2 2522.08 4965.64 -9188.26 -18688.435021.94
Apr-04 858.92 13.83 89.63 -55.39 -324.49 370.93 1134.88 -1700.54 -4222.62 7145.3316333.59 -29181.9
May-04 872.75 48.07 34.24 -8.95 46.44 -194.73 -565.66 1222.17 2922.71 -5703.02 -12848.424047.82
Jun-04 920.82 73.36 25.29 -157.24 -148.29 461.78 656.51 -1558.14 -2780.31 5496.4511199.47 -19650.8
Jul-04 994.18 -58.59 -131.95 156.25 313.49 -439.85 -901.63 1158 2716.14 -2954.83 -8451.28 7279.39
Aug-04 935.59 -34.29 24.3 29.89 -126.36 -183.48 256.37 919.31 -238.69 -4126.72 -1171.8917613.12
Sep-04 901.3 19.9 54.19 -279.95 -309.84 992.2 1175.68 -3446.1 -4365.41 12314.51 16441.23 -44802.1
Oct-04 921.2 -205.86 -225.76 402.41 682.36 -1278.22 -2270.42 4503 7949.1 -16046.4 -28360.957235.25
Nov-04 715.34 -29.21 176.65 -193.45 -595.86 954.36 2232.58 -3594.28 -8097.28 12827.98 28874.36 -45309.3
Dec-04 686.13 -46.01 -16.8 165.05 358.5 -407.34 -1361.7 1136.42 4730.7 -3606.92 -16434.912407.69

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