Introductory remarks made on the philosophy of probability and decision analysis from an Indian context, to an audience of Vaidya Scientist Fellows at IAIM (Institute of Ayurveda and Integrative Medicine), Bangalore.

1. From Probability to
Decision Analysis
From Sankhyana Shaastra to Nirnaya Shaastra

2. Nala Damayanti
Nala lost his kingdom and
wealth to brother Pushkara in
game of dice
Makes a deal with King Rituparna
Teach charioteering, learn gambling
Challenges Pushkara to a
rematch,wins this time,
also remarries his wife
“Knowledge I possess of the game of dice, thus is my skill in numbers”
http://karatalaamalaka.wordpress.com/2011/04/20/probability-theory-gambling-and-the-mahabharata/

3. What tree is this?
Photo by: Jan Ainali
Photo by: J. M. Garg
Hint: This is the
fruit of the tree
The Challenge: Estimate number of leaves without actually counting.
Rituparna estimated number of leaves as 5 million (panchakoti) and fruits as 2095!
http://karatalaamalaka.wordpress.com/2011/04/20/probability-theory-gambling-and-the-mahabharata/
Rituparna’s demo
Vibhitaka (bibitaki)

4. Epistemic vs Aleatory Knowledge
Ganesha, the first
Bayesian god
Karthik’s challenge -
go around the world three times
Goes around his parents
three times!

5. कमर्ण्येवािधकारस्ते मा फलेषु कदाचन |
मा कमर्फलहेतुभूर्मार् ते सङ्गोऽस्त्वकमर्िण ||२- ४७||
Our competence lies in action, not in the fruits thereof.
Therefore focus on right action, and be not attached to inaction.

6. You cannot judge a decision from the outcome.
Ronald Howard

7. Drive Drunk Drive Sober
Bad Decision,
Bad Outcome
Crash
Reach
Safely
Good Decision,
Bad Outcome
Bad Decision,
Good Outcome
Good Decision,
Good Outcome

8. There are those who believe that there is
something “cold and inhuman” about
rational analysis. I believe that to be human
is to be reasoning as well as compassionate.
My ideal here is Buddha:
“Perhaps the most striking thing about him,
to use the words of J. B. Pratt, was his
combination of a cool head and a warm
heart, a blend which shielded him from
sentimentality on the one hand and
indifference on the other. He was
undoubtedly one of the great rationalists of
all times, resembling in this respect no one
as much as Socrates. Every problem that
came his way was automatically subjected to
the cold, analytical glare of his intellect.
First, it would be dissected into its
component parts, after which these would be
reassembled in logical, architectonic order
with their meaning and import laid bare
(Smith [29]).”
Perhaps Buddha was the first decision
analyst.
—Ronald Howard

9. Rev. Thomas Bayes
Pierre-Simon Laplace
An Essay towards solving
a Problem in the Doctrine
of Chances, published in
1763 after his death
Modern father of
probability theory

10. E. T. Jaynes
Probability: The Logic of Science

11. Prof. Ronald Howard, Stanford
University
Named our field and did his first
formal Decision Analysis in 1964