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Decision Analysis Introduction - BIT

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Somik Raha
Somik Raha

A workshop organized by Bangalore Institute of Technology on Sep 8, 2022, and conducted by Dr. Somik Raha. Topics covered include the definition of decisions, distinction b/w decisions and outcomes, the sunk cost principle, the six elements of decision quality, and the difference between prudential, ethical and legal decisions.

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To the extent possible under law, Somik Raha has waived all copyright and related or neighboring rights to “An Introduction to Decision Analysis.” This work is published from: United States and India.
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Somik Raha Introduction to Decision Analysis
Opening Poll Questions: Did you attend yesterday's session 'The Magic of Probability'? 
 ನೀ ವು ನಿ ನ್ನೆ ಯ ಅ ಧಿ ವೇ ಶನ ' ದಿ ಮ್ಯಾ ಜಿ ಕ್ ಆ ಫ್ ಪ್ರಾ ಬ ಬಿ ಲಿ ಟಿ ' ಗೆ ಹಾ ಜ ರಾ ಗಿ ದ್ದೀ ರಾ ? Are you committing to avoiding multitasking in today's session? 
 ಇಂ ದಿ ನ ಅ ಧಿ ವೇ ಶನದ ಲ್ಲಿ ಬಹು ಕಾ ರ್ಯ ಕವ ನ್ನು ತ ಪ್ಪಿ ಸಲು ನೀ ವು ಬ ದ್ಧ ರಾ ಗಿ ದ್ದೀ ರಾ ? Have you turned on your video? If not, would you please turn it on and then confirm below? 
 ನೀ ವು ಇ ನ್ನೂ ನಿ ಮ್ಮ ವೀ ಡಿ ಯೊ ವ ನ್ನು ಆ ನ್ ಮಾ ಡಿ ದ್ದೀ ರಾ ? ಇ ಲ್ಲ ದಿ ದ್ದ ರೆ , ದಯ ವಿ ಟ್ಟು ಅದ ನ್ನು ಆ ನ್ ಮಾ ಡಿ ನಂತರ ಕೆ ಳ ಗೆ ದೃ ಢೀ ಕ ರಿ ಸು ವಿ ರಾ .
What is a decision? ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರ ಏನು ? How do you know you’ve made a decision?
 ನೀ ವು ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರ ತೆ ಗೆ ದು ಕೊಂ ಡಿ ದ್ದೀ ರಿ ಎಂದು ನಿ ಮ ಗೆ ಹೇ ಗೆ ಗೊ ತ್ತು ? Please type in your chatbox
 ದಯ ವಿ ಟ್ಟು ನಿ ಮ್ಮ ಚಾ ಟ್ ‌ಬಾ ಕ್ಸ್ ‌ ನ ಲ್ಲಿ ಟೈ ಪ್ ಮಾ ಡಿ
by doing what is right Any thing which we decide on our own way means a decision made by one Outcome Tautological or Circular Logic Decision is something which makes human to think about future A selecting a course of action for the proposed problem statement or selecting a mode of action to achieve an objective(short or long term). When we have made a decision, we anticipate an outcome associated with it. The outcome establishes that a decision was made. Thinking Decision is something which we once take we follow it and before taking it we should think of all pros and cons and after that we take it. When I get to know all of it's pros and cons and when i feel like yeah now I can follow it, then I get to know that I have made one decision Clarity of Action When we feel con fi dent on any topic, then we make decisions.. The capability of making a wise choice and having a fi rm hold over it .When ur con fi dent that your decision isn't having negative impact then it's a right one Confident Decision makes my life to go in a right path Deciding to make an action A situation in which one of the options has to be chosen based on the conditions and in order for a desirable outcome. Analysis/Judgment Decision means deciding or selecting a particular task or goal and to achieving it Making a judgement after looking into the problem thoroughly Whenever we have choices in life to choose one thing then we have to think logically considering the beni fi ts or harm to us or others this process is called decision. Whenever my choice clears these steps then I know that I have made the decision. A conclusion or resolution reached after consideration Something which we decide to do Decision is a judgement. Good results need perfect decisions STUDENT RESPONSES
Decision. ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರ An irrevocable allocation of resources ಸಂಪ ನ್ಮೂ ಲಗಳ ಬದ ಲಾ ಯಿ ಸ ಲಾ ಗದ ಹಂ ಚಿ ಕೆ
Which statements below would you disagree with : A) The economic devastation caused by the Covid lockdown points to a bad decision
 ಕೋ ವಿ ಡ್ ಲಾ ಕ್ ‌ಡೌ ನ್ ‌ನಿಂ ದ ಉಂ ಟಾ ದ ಆ ರ್ಥಿ ಕ ವಿ ನಾ ಶ ವು ಕೆ ಟ್ಟ ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರವ ನ್ನು ಸೂ ಚಿ ಸು ತ್ತ ದೆ 
 B) The lives saved by the Covid lockdown points to a good decision
 ಕೋ ವಿ ಡ್ ಲಾ ಕ್ ‌ಡೌ ನ್ ‌ನಿಂ ದ ಉ ಳಿ ಸ ಲಾ ದ ಜೀ ವಗ ಳು ಉ ತ್ತ ಮ ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರವ ನ್ನು ಸೂ ಚಿ ಸು ತ್ತ ವೆ 
 C) The Chandraayan 2 orbiter crashed on the lunar surface, which proves that its launch decision was a bad one
 ಚಂ ದ್ರ ಯಾ ನ 2 ಆ ರ್ಬಿ ಟ ರ್ ಚಂ ದ್ರ ನ ಮೇ ಲ್ಮೈ ಯ ಲ್ಲಿ ಅ ಪ್ಪ ಳಿ ಸಿ ತು, ಇದು ಅದರ ಉ ಡಾ ವ ಣಾ ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರ ವು ಕೆ ಟ್ಟ ದ್ದಾ ಗಿ ದೆ ಎಂದು ಸಾ ಬೀ ತುಪ ಡಿ ಸು ತ್ತ ದೆ 
 D) We need to see the mistakes in classification to know if our ML algorithm made the right decision
 ನ ಮ್ಮ ML ಅ ಲ್ಗಾ ರಿ ದ ಮ್ ಸ ರಿ ಯಾ ದ ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರವ ನ್ನು ಮಾ ಡಿ ದೆ ಯೇ ಎಂದು ತಿ ಳಿ ಯಲು ನಾ ವು ವ ರ್ಗೀ ಕರಣದ ಲ್ಲಿ ನ ತ ಪ್ಪು ಗಳ ನ್ನು ನೋ ಡ ಬೇ ಕಾ ಗಿ ದೆ POLL QUESTION
Principle #1. Decisions vs Outcomes
 ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರಗ ಳು ಮ ತ್ತು ಫ ಲಿ ತಾಂ ಶಗ ಳು You cannot judge a decision from the outcome
 ಫ ಲಿ ತಾಂ ಶ ದಿಂ ದ ನೀ ವು ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರವ ನ್ನು ನಿ ರ್ಣ ಯಿ ಸಲು ಸಾ ಧ್ಯ ವಿ ಲ್ಲ
Good Decision Bad Decision Good 
 Outcome Bad 
 Outcome Drive Sober. Reach Home Safe.
Good Decision Bad Decision Good 
 Outcome Bad 
 Outcome Drive Drunk. Crash.
Good Decision Bad Decision Good 
 Outcome Bad 
 Outcome Drive Drunk. Reach Home Safe.
Good Decision Bad Decision Good 
 Outcome Bad 
 Outcome Drive Sober. Crash.
Which statements below would you disagree with : A) The economic devastation caused by the Covid lockdown points to a bad decision
 ಕೋ ವಿ ಡ್ ಲಾ ಕ್ ‌ಡೌ ನ್ ‌ನಿಂ ದ ಉಂ ಟಾ ದ ಆ ರ್ಥಿ ಕ ವಿ ನಾ ಶ ವು ಕೆ ಟ್ಟ ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರವ ನ್ನು ಸೂ ಚಿ ಸು ತ್ತ ದೆ 
 B) The lives saved by the Covid lockdown points to a good decision
 ಕೋ ವಿ ಡ್ ಲಾ ಕ್ ‌ಡೌ ನ್ ‌ನಿಂ ದ ಉ ಳಿ ಸ ಲಾ ದ ಜೀ ವಗ ಳು ಉ ತ್ತ ಮ ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರವ ನ್ನು ಸೂ ಚಿ ಸು ತ್ತ ವೆ 
 C) The Chandraayan 2 orbiter crashed on the lunar surface, which proves that its launch decision was a bad one
 ಚಂ ದ್ರ ಯಾ ನ 2 ಆ ರ್ಬಿ ಟ ರ್ ಚಂ ದ್ರ ನ ಮೇ ಲ್ಮೈ ಯ ಲ್ಲಿ ಅ ಪ್ಪ ಳಿ ಸಿ ತು, ಇದು ಅದರ ಉ ಡಾ ವ ಣಾ ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರ ವು ಕೆ ಟ್ಟ ದ್ದಾ ಗಿ ದೆ ಎಂದು ಸಾ ಬೀ ತುಪ ಡಿ ಸು ತ್ತ ದೆ 
 D) We need to see the mistakes in classification to know if our ML algorithm made the right decision
 ನ ಮ್ಮ ML ಅ ಲ್ಗಾ ರಿ ದ ಮ್ ಸ ರಿ ಯಾ ದ ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರವ ನ್ನು ಮಾ ಡಿ ದೆ ಯೇ ಎಂದು ತಿ ಳಿ ಯಲು ನಾ ವು ವ ರ್ಗೀ ಕರಣದ ಲ್ಲಿ ನ ತ ಪ್ಪು ಗಳ ನ್ನು ನೋ ಡ ಬೇ ಕಾ ಗಿ ದೆ POLL QUESTION
B > A is not guaranteed, so choosing B is not a good decision . B > A ಅ ನ್ನು ಖಾ ತ ರಿ ಪ ಡಿ ಸ ಲಾ ಗಿ ಲ್ಲ , ಆ ದ್ದ ರಿಂ ದ B ಅ ನ್ನು ಆ ಯ್ಕೆ ಮಾ ಡು ವು ದು ಉ ತ್ತ ಮ ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರ ವಾ ಗು ವು ದಿ ಲ್ಲ . Do you agree with the following? ನೀ ವು ಈ ಕೆ ಳ ಗಿ ನ ವು ಗಳ ನ್ನು ಒ ಪ್ಪು ತ್ತೀ ರಾ ? PDF of A and B 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 A CDF of A and B 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 A CDF of A and B 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 B Crore Rupees Crore Rupees PDF of A and B 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 B
Which of the following statements do you consider to be faulty logic? ಕೆ ಳ ಗಿ ನ ಯಾ ವ ಹೇ ಳಿ ಕೆ ಗಳ ನ್ನು ನೀ ವು ದೋ ಷಯು ಕ್ತ ತ ರ್ಕ ವೆಂ ದು ಪ ರಿ ಗ ಣಿ ಸು ತ್ತೀ ರಿ ? 
 A) I am in a tough relationship but can't walk out because of all the years I’ve put in. ನಾ ನು ಹೂ ಡಿ ಕೆ ಮಾ ಡಿ ದ ಎ ಲ್ಲಾ ವ ರ್ಷ ಗ ಳಿಂ ದ ಈ ಕ ಠಿ ಣ ಸಂಬಂಧವ ನ್ನು ಬಿ ಡಲು ಸಾ ಧ್ಯ ವಿ ಲ್ಲ . 
 B) I have already put in so many years into this relationship, hence can’t invest any more. ನಾ ನು ಈ ಗಾ ಗ ಲೇ ಈ ಸಂಬಂಧ ಕ್ಕೆ ಹಲ ವು ವ ರ್ಷ ಗಳ ನ್ನು ಹಾ ಕಿ ದ್ದೇ ನೆ , ಆ ದ್ದ ರಿಂ ದ ಇ ನ್ನು ಮುಂ ದೆ ಹೂ ಡಿ ಕೆ ಮಾ ಡಲು ಸಾ ಧ್ಯ ವಿ ಲ್ಲ . C) I don’t want to fund this project anymore since we’ve already invested 2 years into it. ನಾ ವು ಈ ಗಾ ಗ ಲೇ 2 ವ ರ್ಷ ಗಳ ಕಾ ಲ ಹೂ ಡಿ ಕೆ ಮಾ ಡಿ ರು ವು ದ ರಿಂ ದ ಈ ಯೋ ಜ ನೆ ಗೆ ಇ ನ್ನು ಮುಂ ದೆ ಹಣ ನೀ ಡಲು ನಾ ನು ಬಯಸು ವು ದಿ ಲ್ಲ . D) I have put in so many years into this career, I cannot walk away into something new. ನಾ ನು ಈ ವೃ ತ್ತಿ ಜೀ ವನ ಕ್ಕೆ ಹಲ ವು ವ ರ್ಷ ಗಳ ನ್ನು ಹಾ ಕಿ ದ್ದೇ ನೆ , ನಾ ನು ಹೊ ಸದ ಕ್ಕೆ ಹೋ ಗಲು ಸಾ ಧ್ಯ ವಿ ಲ್ಲ .
Principle #2. The Sunk Cost Principl e The past matters for learning, not for accounting.
Which of the following statements do you consider to be faulty logic? ಕೆ ಳ ಗಿ ನ ಯಾ ವ ಹೇ ಳಿ ಕೆ ಗಳ ನ್ನು ನೀ ವು ದೋ ಷಯು ಕ್ತ ತ ರ್ಕ ವೆಂ ದು ಪ ರಿ ಗ ಣಿ ಸು ತ್ತೀ ರಿ ? 
 A) I am in a tough relationship but can't walk out because of all the years I’ve put in. ನಾ ನು ಹೂ ಡಿ ಕೆ ಮಾ ಡಿ ದ ಎ ಲ್ಲಾ ವ ರ್ಷ ಗ ಳಿಂ ದ ಈ ಕ ಠಿ ಣ ಸಂಬಂಧವ ನ್ನು ಬಿ ಡಲು ಸಾ ಧ್ಯ ವಿ ಲ್ಲ . 
 B) I have already put in so many years into this relationship, hence can’t invest any more. ನಾ ನು ಈ ಗಾ ಗ ಲೇ ಈ ಸಂಬಂಧ ಕ್ಕೆ ಹಲ ವು ವ ರ್ಷ ಗಳ ನ್ನು ಹಾ ಕಿ ದ್ದೇ ನೆ , ಆ ದ್ದ ರಿಂ ದ ಇ ನ್ನು ಮುಂ ದೆ ಹೂ ಡಿ ಕೆ ಮಾ ಡಲು ಸಾ ಧ್ಯ ವಿ ಲ್ಲ . C) I don’t want to fund this project anymore since we’ve already invested 2 years into it. ನಾ ವು ಈ ಗಾ ಗ ಲೇ 2 ವ ರ್ಷ ಗಳ ಕಾ ಲ ಹೂ ಡಿ ಕೆ ಮಾ ಡಿ ರು ವು ದ ರಿಂ ದ ಈ ಯೋ ಜ ನೆ ಗೆ ಇ ನ್ನು ಮುಂ ದೆ ಹಣ ನೀ ಡಲು ನಾ ನು ಬಯಸು ವು ದಿ ಲ್ಲ . D) I have put in so many years into this career, I cannot walk away into something new. ನಾ ನು ಈ ವೃ ತ್ತಿ ಜೀ ವನ ಕ್ಕೆ ಹಲ ವು ವ ರ್ಷ ಗಳ ನ್ನು ಹಾ ಕಿ ದ್ದೇ ನೆ , ನಾ ನು ಹೊ ಸದ ಕ್ಕೆ ಹೋ ಗಲು ಸಾ ಧ್ಯ ವಿ ಲ್ಲ .
How do we judge decision quality?
Highlighting the decision maker visually (Prof. Ronald A. Howard)
 ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರ ತೆ ಗೆ ದು ಕೊ ಳ್ಳು ವವರ ನ್ನು ದೃ ಷ್ಟಿ ಗೋ ಚರ ವಾ ಗಿ ಹೈ ಲೈ ಟ್ ಮಾ ಡು ವು ದು ( ಪ್ರೊ . ರೊ ನಾ ಲ್ಡ್ ಎ. ಹೊ ವಾ ರ್ಡ್ ) The Six Elements of Decision Quality
 ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರದ ಗುಣಮ ಟ್ಟ ದ ಆರು ಅಂಶಗ ಳು Visual Principle: Three-legged stool metaphor
 ದೃ ಶ್ಯ ತ ತ್ವ : ಮೂರು ಕಾ ಲಿ ನ ಮಲ ರೂಪಕ
Chain metaphor introduced by Strategic Decisions Group
 ಸ್ಟ್ರಾ ಟೆ ಜಿ ಕ್ ಡಿ ಸಿ ಶ ನ್ಸ್ ಗ್ರೂ ಪ್ ಪ ರಿ ಚ ಯಿ ಸಿ ದ ಸರಪ ಳಿ ರೂಪಕ The Six Elements of Decision Qualit y ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರದ ಗುಣಮ ಟ್ಟ ದ ಆರು ಅಂಶಗ ಳು © 2015 Strategic Decisions Group. All rights reserved. Used with permission. v07 2 Creative, Doable Alternatives 3 Meaningful, Reliable Information 4 Clear Values and Trade-offs 6 Commitment to Action DQ Elements of Decision Quality 1 Appropriate Frame 5 Logically Correct Reasoning Visual Principle: Decision only as good as weakest link in the chain
 ವಿ ಷುಯ ಲ್ ಪ್ರಿ ನ್ಸಿ ಪ ಲ್ : ಸರಪ ಳಿ ಯ ಲ್ಲಿ ನ ದು ರ್ಬ ಲ ಲಿಂ ಕ್ ‌ ನ ಷ್ಟೇ ಉ ತ್ತ ಮ ವಾ ದ ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರ
Head and Heart dimensions introduced by SmartOrg
 ಸ್ಟ್ರಾ ಟೆ ಜಿ ಕ್ ಡಿ ಸಿ ಶ ನ್ಸ್ ಗ್ರೂ ಪ್ ಪ ರಿ ಚ ಯಿ ಸಿ ದ ಸರಪ ಳಿ ರೂಪಕ The Six Elements of Decision Qualit y ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರದ ಗುಣಮ ಟ್ಟ ದ ಆರು ಅಂಶಗ ಳು Free Resource : Course on Decision Quality Visual Principle: Radar diagram to assess where you are
 ವಿ ಷುಯ ಲ್ ಪ್ರಿ ನ್ಸಿ ಪ ಲ್ : ನೀ ವು ಎ ಲ್ಲಿ ದ್ದೀ ರಿ ಎಂದು ನಿ ರ್ಣ ಯಿ ಸಲು ರಾ ಡಾ ರ್ ರೇ ಖಾ ಚಿ ತ್ರ
The Six Elements of Decision Qualit y ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರದ ಗುಣಮ ಟ್ಟ ದ ಆರು ಅಂಶಗ ಳು COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART A L T E R N A T I V E S INF OR MA TIO N V A L U E S COMMITMENT TO ACTION Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts Clear Tradeoffs
 Noble Purpose Insightful Reasoning
 Inspiring Narrative Actionable Plans
 Aligned Intention INTEGRATION VALUES FRAME INFORMATION ALTERNATIVES Warm 
 Heart Cool 
 Head Acknowledgmen t The ideas in the Decision Quality framework presented here are an evolution from the work of many people and organizations, including Prof. Ron Howard, Dr. Carl Spetzler and Strategic Decisions Group, Chris Spetzler and the Decision Education Foundation, Dr. David Matheson and SmartOrg, Inc., and many others.
ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರದ ಗುಣಮ ಟ್ಟ ದ ಆರು ಅಂಶಗ ಳು ತಂ ಪಾ ದ 
 ತ ಲೆ ಬೆ ಚ್ಚ ಗಿ ನ 
 ಹೃದಯ ಪ ರ್ಯಾ ಯ ಗ ಳು ಮಾ ಹಿ ತಿ ಮೌ ಲ್ಯ ಗ ಳ ನ್ನು ಕ್ರಿ ಯೆ ಗೆ ಬ ದ್ಧ ತೆ ಉಪಯು ಕ್ತ ದೃ ಷ್ಟಿ ಕೋ ನ
 ಅ ರ್ಥ ಪೂ ರ್ಣ ವಿ ಚಾ ರ ಣೆ ಗ ಳು ವಿ ಶಿ ಷ್ಟ ದಿ ಕ್ಕು ಗ ಳು 
 ಆಸ ಕ್ತಿ ದಾ ಯಕ ಸಾ ಧ್ಯ ತೆ ಗ ಳು ನಂಬಲ ರ್ಹ ಮೂಲಗ ಳು 
 ಬಲ ವಾ ದ ಮು ನ್ಸೂ ಚ ನೆ ಗ ಳು ಸ್ಪ ಷ್ಟ ಸಮ ತೋ ಲನ
 ಉ ದಾ ತ್ತ ಉ ದ್ದೇ ಶ ಒಳ ನೋ ಟ ವು ಳ್ಳ ತಾ ರ್ಕಿ ಕ
 ಸ್ಪೂ ರ್ತಿ ದಾ ಯಕ ನಿ ರೂಪ ಣೆ ಕಾ ರ್ಯ ಸಾ ಧ್ಯ ಯೋ ಜ ನೆ ಗ ಳು 
 ಜೋ ಡಿ ಸ ಲಾ ದ ಉ ದ್ದೇ ಶ ಏ ಕೀ ಕರಣ ಮೌ ಲ್ಯ ಗಳ ನ್ನು ಚೌ ಕ ಟ್ಟು ಮಾ ಹಿ ತಿ ಪ ರ್ಯಾ ಯಗ ಳು ಬೆ ಚ್ಚ ಗಿ ನ 
 ಹೃದಯ ತಂ ಪಾ ದ 
 ತ ಲೆ ಸ್ವೀ ಕೃ ತಿ ಇ ಲ್ಲಿ ಪ್ರ ಸ್ತು ತಪ ಡಿ ಸ ಲಾ ದ ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರದ ಗುಣಮ ಟ್ಟ ದ ಚೌ ಕ ಟ್ಟಿ ನ ಲ್ಲಿ ನ ಆ ಲೋ ಚ ನೆ ಗ ಳು ಅ ನೇ ಕ ಜನರು ಮ ತ್ತು ಸಂ ಸ್ಥೆ ಗಳ ಕೆ ಲಸ ದಿಂ ದ ವಿ ಕಸನ ಗೊಂ ಡಿ ವೆ , ಸೇ ರಿ ದಂ ತೆ ಪ್ರೊ . ರಾ ನ್ ಹೊ ವಾ ರ್ಡ್ , ಡಾ . ಕಾ ರ್ಲ್ ಸ್ಪೆ ಟ್ಜ್ಲ ರ್ ಮ ತ್ತು ಸ್ಟ್ರಾ ಟೆ ಜಿ ಕ್ ಡಿ ಸಿ ಶ ನ್ಸ್ ಗ್ರೂ ಪ್ , ಕ್ರಿ ಸ್ ಸ್ಪೆ ಟ್ಜ್ಲ ರ್ ಮ ತ್ತು ಡಿ ಸಿ ಷ ನ್ ಎಜು ಕೇ ಶ ನ್ ಫೌಂ ಡೇ ಶ ನ್ , ಡಾ . ಡೇ ವಿ ಡ್ ಮ್ಯಾ ಥೆ ಸ ನ್ ಮ ತ್ತು ಸ್ಮಾ ರ್ಟ್ ಆ ರ್ಗ್ , ಇಂ ಕ್ ., ಮ ತ್ತು ಇತರ ಅ ನೇ ಕರು..
The Six Elements of Decision Quality COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART A L T E R N A T I V E S INF OR MA TIO N V A L U E S COMMITMENT TO ACTION Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts Clear Tradeoffs
 Noble Purpose Insightful Reasoning
 Inspiring Narrative Actionable Plans
 Aligned Intention INTEGRATION VALUES FRAME INFORMATION ALTERNATIVES Warm 
 Heart Cool 
 Head
The Six Elements of Decision Quality COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME
Framing a “decision” is an act of authorship
 “ ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರ” ವ ನ್ನು ಚೌ ಕ ಟ್ಟು ಕ ರ್ತೃ ತ್ವ ದ ಕ್ರಿ ಯೆ ಯಾ ಗಿ ದೆ COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME
Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision What have we committed to?
 ನಾ ವು ಯಾ ವು ದ ಕ್ಕೆ ಬ ದ್ಧ ರಾ ಗಿ ದ್ದೇ ವೆ ? What do we need to figure out now?
 ನಾ ವು ಈಗ ಏನು ಲೆ ಕ್ಕಾ ಚಾ ರ ಮಾ ಡ ಬೇ ಕು? What do we need to figure out later?
 ನಾ ವು ನಂತರ ಏನು ಲೆ ಕ್ಕಾ ಚಾ ರ ಮಾ ಡಬಹುದು? Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME
Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to? SOMIK
 from 20 years back SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME I will help you think through this I will jump out of the role play to give more context
Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to? SOMIK
 from 20 years back SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME So what are you really worried about?
Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to? SOMIK
 from 20 years back Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back So what are you really worried about? SOMIK
 from 20 years back I don’t want to waste the opportunity
Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back So what are you really worried about? SOMIK
 from 20 years back I don’t want to waste the opportunity SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back And how would it be wasted?
Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME SOMIK
 from 20 years back I don’t want to waste the opportunity SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back And how would it be wasted? SOMIK
 from 20 years back I could get an offer I don’t really want, 
 and then have only one shot at a dream role
Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back And how would it be wasted? SOMIK
 from 20 years back I could get an offer I don’t really want, 
 and then have only one shot at a dream role SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Would you agree that you are committed to only getting offers in companies you are interested in?
Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME SOMIK
 from 20 years back I could get an offer I don’t really want, 
 and then have only one shot at a dream role SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Would you agree that you are committed to only getting offers in companies you are interested in? SOMIK
 from 20 years back Yes!
Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Would you agree that you are committed to only getting offers in companies you are interested in? SOMIK
 from 20 years back Yes! SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Let’s frame your decision with a decision hierarchy!
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to? Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Let’s draw this up Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to? Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Let’s continue the dialog! Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back What areas are you ready to eliminate? SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to? Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back What areas are you ready to eliminate? SOMIK
 from 20 years back I don’t want to work on Y2K problems!
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to? Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back What areas are you ready to eliminate? SOMIK
 from 20 years back I don’t want to work on Y2K problems! SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor Y2K: The Year 2000 Bug affecting date fields in databases
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to? Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back What areas are you ready to eliminate? SOMIK
 from 20 years back I don’t want to work on Y2K problems! SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Ok, let’s add that in
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Let’s add the new given! Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Let’s eliminate alternatives! Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back What areas are you ready to eliminate? SOMIK
 from 20 years back I don’t want to work on Y2K problems! SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back So how does this look? SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor Let’s continue!
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK
 from 20 years back I don’t want to work on Y2K problems! SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back So how does this look? SOMIK
 from 20 years back Good to eliminate some alternatives.
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back So how does this look? SOMIK
 from 20 years back Good to eliminate some alternatives. SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Let’s keep going. What are you interested in?
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK
 from 20 years back Good to eliminate some alternatives. SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Let’s keep going. What are you interested in? SOMIK
 from 20 years back Artificial Intelligence!
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Let’s keep going. What are you interested in? SOMIK
 from 20 years back Artificial Intelligence! SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Well, I don’t think any of these companies are doing AI.
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK
 from 20 years back Artificial Intelligence! SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Well, I don’t think any of these companies are doing AI. SOMIK
 from 20 years back Right, but if they care about innovation,
 maybe they will make the space.
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Well, I don’t think any of these companies are doing AI. SOMIK
 from 20 years back Right, but if they care about innovation,
 maybe they will make the space. SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back So looks like innovation is another given for you?
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK
 from 20 years back Right, but if they care about innovation,
 maybe they will make the space. SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back So looks like innovation is another given for you? SOMIK
 from 20 years back Absolutely!
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back So looks like innovation is another given for you? SOMIK
 from 20 years back Absolutely! SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Just curious, how would you know if the company is open to innovation?
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK
 from 20 years back Absolutely! SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Just curious, how would you know if the company is open to innovation? SOMIK
 from 20 years back I would look at their track record in 
 building products.
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Just curious, how would you know if the company is open to innovation? SOMIK
 from 20 years back I would look at their track record in 
 building products. SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Ok, let’s add that in as a given.
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Let’s add the given! Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to companies that build products SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Let’s eliminate alternatives! Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to companies that build products SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Let’s continue the dialog! Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to companies that build products SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Ok, let’s add that in as a given SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back How does this feel? SOMIK
 from 20 years back I would look at their track record in 
 building products.
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Let’s continue the dialog! Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to companies that build products SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Ok, let’s add that in as a given SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back How does this feel? SOMIK
 from 20 years back This is really helpful, but now I don’t 
 have too many alternatives.
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to companies that build products SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back How does this feel? SOMIK
 from 20 years back This is really helpful, but now I don’t 
 have too many alternatives. SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Yes, let’s talk about that. Are you limited to only placement cell opportunities?
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to companies that build products SOMIK
 from 20 years back This is really helpful, but now I don’t 
 have too many alternatives. SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Yes, let’s talk about that. Are you limited to only placement cell opportunities? SOMIK
 from 20 years back Not at all. I want to keep looking for
 AI opportunities.
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to companies that build products SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Yes, let’s talk about that. Are you limited to only placement cell opportunities? SOMIK
 from 20 years back Not at all. I want to keep looking for
 AI opportunities. SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Let’s mark that as another given.
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to companies that build products Will keep looking for AI opportunities off-campus Let’s add the new given! SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus and off-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F K
 B G L
 C H M
 D I N
 E J O Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to roles that have space for innovation Let’s change the current decision SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor Will keep looking for AI opportunities off-campus
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus and off-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F K
 B G L
 C H M
 D I N
 E J O Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to roles that have space for innovation Let’s continue the dialog! SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor Will keep looking for AI opportunities off-campus SOMIK
 from 20 years back Not at all. I want to keep looking for
 AI opportunities. SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Let’s mark that as another given. SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Let’s talk about your future decision. What do you think it is?
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus and off-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F K
 B G L
 C H M
 D I N
 E J O Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to roles that have space for innovation Let’s change current decision SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor Will keep looking for AI opportunities off-campus SOMIK
 from 20 years back I think it is: “When should I stop looking
 and accept an offer?” SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Let’s mark that as another given. SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Let’s talk about your future decision. What do you think it is?
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus and off-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F K
 B G L
 C H M
 D I N
 E J O Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to roles that have space for innovation Let’s change current decision SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor Will keep looking for AI opportunities off-campus SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Let’s talk about your future decision. What do you think it is? SOMIK
 from 20 years back I think it is: “When should I stop looking
 and accept an offer?” SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Great, let’s add that in!
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus and off-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F K
 B G L
 C H M
 D I N
 E J O Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to roles that have space for innovation This is the decision frame SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor Will keep looking for AI opportunities off-campus When should I stop looking and accept an offer? WHAT ARE YOUR REFLECTIONS FROM THIS DIALOG?
Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus and off-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F K
 B G L
 C H M
 D I N
 E J O Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to roles that have space for innovation This is the decision frame SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor Will keep looking for AI opportunities off-campus When should I stop looking and accept an offer? ETHICAL CONSEQUENCES OF A LACK OF CLARITY
The Six Elements of Decision Quality COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME
The Six Elements of Decision Quality COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES
What is strategy? COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES
COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Strategy is something which is made with perfect plan and perfect decision A particular method or way to do things which is planned Strategy is a well-de fi ned course of action made from legitimate input data from the current situation that helps us achieve the objectives and end-goals in the most optimal way. A speci fi c pathway you choose by planning which leads to your destination step by step. Process Optimization Route to Goal do right things Strategy is something what which is required to perform any task or something important to us in well structured and nice way so that the chances of getting it fail is low The way of counterattacking any challenge Planning to do things way more productive in lesser time and work, basically smart work various components to achieve a desired state in the future A tactic calculated after considering the obstructions to get the desirable outcome A perfect planning to achieve the aim A plan or some type of blueprint to solve the problem ahead or to accomplish a goal Strategy is a logical and planned way in order to complete a task within given constraints Way to fi nd solution Plan to achieve something It might be a mind mapping to complete a task Your plan of action Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES What is 
 Strategy?
What is strategy? ತಂ ತ್ರ ಏನು A set of interconnected alternatives
 ಅಂತ ರ್ಸಂ ಪ ರ್ಕಿ ತ ಪ ರ್ಯಾ ಯಗಳ ಒಂದು ಸಂ ಗ್ರ ಹ ಣೆ COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES
Framing Tool: Strategy Table COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART ALTERNATIVE 1 Decision 1 ALTERNATIVE 2 ALTERNATIVE 3 ALTERNATIVE 1 Decision 2 ALTERNATIVE 2 ALTERNATIVE 3 ALTERNATIVE 1 Decision 3 ALTERNATIVE 2 ALTERNATIVE 3 Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES
Framing Tool: Strategy Table COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART ALTERNATIVE 1 Decision 1 ALTERNATIVE 2 ALTERNATIVE 3 ALTERNATIVE 1 Decision 2 ALTERNATIVE 2 ALTERNATIVE 3 ALTERNATIVE 1 Decision 3 ALTERNATIVE 2 ALTERNATIVE 3 Strategy Theme 1 Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES
Framing Tool: Strategy Table COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART ALTERNATIVE 1 Decision 1 ALTERNATIVE 2 ALTERNATIVE 3 ALTERNATIVE 1 Decision 2 ALTERNATIVE 2 ALTERNATIVE 3 ALTERNATIVE 1 Decision 3 ALTERNATIVE 2 ALTERNATIVE 3 Strategy Theme 2 Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES
Framing Tool: Strategy Table COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Final Year AI Project 3rd Year 2nd Year Industry Sponsor Research Lab On Campus Self Team Team of 2 Team of 3 Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES Case Study: 
 What is my strategy for building an AI career? 1st Year Team of 4 At Home
Framing Tool: Strategy Table COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Final Year AI Project 3rd Year 2nd Year Industry Sponsor Research Lab On Campus Self Team Team of 2 Team of 3 Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES Case Study: 
 What is my strategy for building an AI career? 1st Year Team of 4 Strategy Theme LAZY Maybe At Home
Framing Tool: Strategy Table COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Final Year AI Project 3rd Year 2nd Year Industry Sponsor Research Lab On Campus Self Team Team of 2 Team of 3 Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES Case Study: 
 What is my strategy for building an AI career? 1st Year Team of 4 Strategy Theme REACTIVE Maybe At Home
Framing Tool: Strategy Table COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Final Year AI Project 3rd Year 2nd Year Industry Sponsor Research Lab On Campus Self Team Team of 2 Team of 3 Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES Case Study: 
 What is my strategy for building an AI career? 1st Year Team of 4 Strategy Theme EARLY 
 START Maybe At Home
Framing Tool: Strategy Table COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Final Year AI Project 3rd Year 2nd Year Industry Sponsor Research Lab On Campus Self Team Team of 2 Team of 3 Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES Case Study: 
 What is my strategy for building an AI career? 1st Year Team of 4 Strategy Theme USE 
 BREAKS Maybe At Home
Framing Tool: Strategy Table COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Final Year AI Project 3rd Year 2nd Year Industry Sponsor Research Lab On Campus Self Team Team of 2 Team of 3 Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES Case Study: 
 What is my strategy for building an AI career? 1st Year Team of 4 Strategy Theme FIND 
 BREAKS Maybe At Home
Framing Tool: Strategy Table COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Final Year AI Project 3rd Year 2nd Year Industry Sponsor Research Lab On Campus Self Team Team of 2 Team of 3 Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES Case Study: 
 What is my strategy for building an AI career? 1st Year Team of 4 Strategy Theme CLASS
 PROJECTS Maybe At Home
Framing Tool: Strategy Table COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Final Year AI Project 3rd Year 2nd Year Industry Sponsor Research Lab Team Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES Case Study: 
 What is my strategy for building an AI career? 1st Year Team of 4 Strategy Theme FIND BREAKS Maybe LAZY REACTIVE Team of 4 EARLY START USE BREAKS On Campus Self Team of 4 At Home Self NOTE: I could do EARLY START, CLASS PROJECTS, USE BREAKS & FIND BREAKS - THEY OPERATE IN DIFFERENT TIME SCALES Research Lab 3rd Year CLASS PROJECTS Industry Team of 2,3,4
The Six Elements of Decision Quality COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES
The Six Elements of Decision Quality COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION
COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Reading Ability Shoe Size 15 7 22 9 35 10 7 6 9 6.5 What can you infer? Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION
COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Shoe Size Reading Ability May be relevant to Not an “Influence Diagram” RELEVANCE DIAGRAM Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION
COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION Shoe Size Reading Ability Irrelevant given X RELEVANCE DIAGRAM X Given “X”, Shoe Size and Reading Ability are irrelevant to each other
COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION Shoe Size Reading Ability Irrelevant given X RELEVANCE DIAGRAM Given Age, Shoe Size and Reading Ability are irrelevant to each other Age Bottomline: Vaccinate yourself against causal thoughts
Find the “X” factor Breakout Exercise https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220208/vitamin-d-deficiency-tied-to-severe-covid What might make Vitamin D deficiency irrelevant to Severe Covid?
COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION FUNNELS MAPS Also known as a relevance diagram! Penetrated Market Total Addressable Market Market Penetration 10,000 widgets 10% 1000 widgets Share Widgets Sold 300 widgets
Where does probability come from? COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION
Poll: Where does probability come from? COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION A. From nature, to be discovered through direct observation. ಪ್ರ ಕೃ ತಿ ಯಿಂ ದ, ನೇ ರ ವೀ ಕ್ಷ ಣೆ ಯ ಮೂಲಕ ಕಂಡು ಹಿ ಡಿ ಯ ಬೇ ಕು B. From our beliefs. ನ ಮ್ಮ ನಂ ಬಿ ಕೆ ಗ ಳಿಂ ದ . C. From past observations. ಹಿಂ ದಿ ನ ಅವ ಲೋ ಕನಗ ಳಿಂ ದ . D. From a fair coin. ನ್ಯಾ ಯಯುತ ನಾ ಣ್ಯ ದಿಂ ದ.
COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION Psst… Sojan, take a look. Prabha, What’s your probability of heads? Sojan, What’s your probability of heads? Sojan, What’s your probability of heads? Prabha, What’s your probability of heads? 50% 50% 100% 50%
“My Probability ” 
 {Event | &} COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION “Ampersand: My state of information” Given Probability of Probability is a state of YOUR information PERSONAL PROBABILITY
“My Probability ” 
 {Event | &} COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Distinction: Must pass the clarity test Can tell you “facts” about the future Cannot tell you if a model is right Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION THE CLAIRVOYANT
Who needs uncertainty when you have data?
 ನಿ ಮ್ಮ ಬ ಳಿ ಡೇ ಟಾ ಇ ದ್ದಾ ಗ ಯಾ ರಿ ಗೆ ಅ ನಿ ಶ್ಚಿ ತ ತೆ ಬೇ ಕು? Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION
What’s the chance it will get its next meal?1 The statistical turkey P(Next meal) = # of days fe d # of days fed + 1 After 1000 days, 
 P(Next meal) = 99.99% But, day 1001 is Thanksgiving! 1 Example from Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book, “The Black Swan” Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION
Seeing this, you would know what to do Compelling Information Story Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION
The Six Elements of Decision Quality COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION
The Six Elements of Decision Quality COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Clear Tradeoffs
 Noble Purpose VALUES
Understanding tradeoffs COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Take complexity off the table so we can focus on who we want to be The Nature Conservancy Story i n The Business of Impact Measurement Clear Tradeoffs
 Noble Purpose VALUES
Noble Purpose is what makes our metrics valid COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Story of Plastic Packaging Clear Tradeoffs
 Noble Purpose VALUES Clarity on who we want to be precedes strategy Resource: Video on “Emotions and Decision Analysis”
How did values play out in our case studies? COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Clear Tradeoffs
 Noble Purpose VALUES
The Six Elements of Decision Quality COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Clear Tradeoffs
 Noble Purpose VALUES
The Six Elements of Decision Quality COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Insightful Reasoning
 Inspiring Narrative INTEGRATION
Integration is where logic comes in COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART The Five Rules of Actional Thought Resource: 
 Lecture by Dr. Steve Tani Insightful Reasoning
 Inspiring Narrative INTEGRATION 1 Probability Rule
 2 Order Rule
 3 Equivalence Rule
 4 Substitution Rule
 5 Choice Rule Resource:
An Example: Integration of Logic and Narrative Integration is also where inspiring narrative comes in Case Study: Hiring for Decision Intelligence roles
 ಕೇ ಸ್ ಸ್ಟ ಡಿ : ಡಿ ಸಿ ಷ ನ್ ಇಂ ಟೆ ಲಿ ಜೆ ನ್ಸ್ ಪಾ ತ್ರ ಗ ಳಿ ಗೆ ನೇ ಮಕ
An Example: Integration of Logic and Narrative Integration is also where inspiring narrative comes in Hiring for Decision Intelligence is hard because 1. Candidates tend to oversell themselves in order to impress interviewer
 ಸಂದ ರ್ಶ ಕರ ನ್ನು ಮೆ ಚ್ಚಿ ಸಲು ಅ ಭ್ಯ ರ್ಥಿ ಗ ಳು ತ ಮ್ಮ ನ್ನು ಅ ತಿ ಯಾ ಗಿ ಮಾ ರಾ ಟ ಮಾ ಡು ತ್ತಾ ರೆ 2. Puzzles are usually not a good indicator of actual work
 ಒಗಟುಗ ಳು ಸಾ ಮಾ ನ್ಯ ವಾ ಗಿ ನಿ ಜ ವಾ ದ ಕೆ ಲಸದ ಉ ತ್ತ ಮ ಸೂಚಕವ ಲ್ಲ 3. Decision Intelligence roles require ability to intuitively understand probability
 ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರ ಬು ದ್ಧಿ ವಂ ತಿ ಕೆ ಯ ಪಾ ತ್ರ ಗ ಳಿ ಗೆ ಸಂಭವ ನೀ ಯ ತೆ ಯ ನ್ನು ಅಂತ ರ್ಬೋ ಧೆ ಯಿಂ ದ ಅ ರ್ಥ ಮಾ ಡಿ ಕೊ ಳ್ಳು ವ ಸಾ ಮ ರ್ಥ್ಯ ದ ಅಗ ತ್ಯ ವಿ ರು ತ್ತ ದೆ 4. Hard to identify aptitude in areas that need deep context
 ಆಳ ವಾ ದ ಸಂದ ರ್ಭ ದ ಅಗ ತ್ಯ ವಿ ರುವ ಪ್ರ ದೇ ಶಗಳ ಲ್ಲಿ ಯೋ ಗ್ಯ ತೆ ಯ ನ್ನು ಗುರು ತಿ ಸು ವು ದು ಕ ಷ್ಟ 5. Actual case studies take up too much time on the part of the candidate
 ನಿ ಜ ವಾ ದ ಕೇ ಸ್ ಸ್ಟ ಡೀ ಸ್ ಅ ಭ್ಯ ರ್ಥಿ ಯ ಕ ಡೆ ಯಿಂ ದ ಹೆ ಚ್ಚು ಸಮಯ ತೆ ಗೆ ದು ಕೊ ಳ್ಳು ತ್ತ ದೆ Insightful Reasoning Therefore 1. Give candidates articles to read, with enough time (a week)
 ಅ ಭ್ಯ ರ್ಥಿ ಗ ಳಿ ಗೆ ಲೇ ಖನಗಳ ನ್ನು ಓದಲು ನೀ ಡಿ ಮ ತ್ತು ಅವ ರಿ ಗೆ ಸಾ ಕ ಷ್ಟು ಸಮಯವ ನ್ನು ನೀ ಡಿ (ಒಂದು ವಾ ರ ) 2. Articles should be representative of the work being done
 ಲೇ ಖನಗ ಳು ಮಾ ಡು ತ್ತಿ ರುವ ಕೆ ಲಸವ ನ್ನು ಪ್ರ ತಿ ನಿ ಧಿ ಸುವಂ ತಿ ರ ಬೇ ಕು 3. Dialog on the article and test for understanding, depth, curiosity, receptivity
 ಲೇ ಖನದ ಕು ರಿ ತು ಸಂ ವಾ ದ ಮಾ ಡಿ ಮ ತ್ತು ತಿ ಳು ವ ಳಿ ಕೆ , ಆಳ, ಕುತೂಹಲ, ಗ್ರ ಹಿ ಕೆ ಯ ನ್ನು ಪ ರೀ ಕ್ಷಿ ಸಿ 4. Encourage appreciation of daily work based on articles
 ಲೇ ಖನಗಳ ಆ ಧಾ ರದ ಮೇ ಲೆ ದೈ ನಂ ದಿ ನ ಕೆ ಲಸವ ನ್ನು ಅ ರ್ಥ ಮಾ ಡಿ ಕೊ ಳ್ಳ ಲು ಪ್ರೋ ತ್ಸಾ ಹಿ ಸಿ
An Example: Integration of Logic and Narrative Integration is also where inspiring narrative comes in Hiring for Decision Intelligence is hard because 1. Candidates tend to oversell themselves in order to impress interviewe r 2. Puzzles are usually not a good indicator of actual wor k 3. Technical roles require ability to intuitively understand probabilit y 4. Hard to identify aptitude in areas that need deep contex t 5. Actual case studies take up too much time on the part of the candidate Therefore 1. Give candidates articles to read, and given them ) 2. Articles should be representative of the work be e 3. Have a dialog on the article and test for unders y 4. Encourage realization of daily work based on art Insightful Reasoning
An Example: Integration of Logic and Narrative Integration is also where inspiring narrative comes in MOVE AWAY FROM PERFORMATIVE INTERVIEWING DEVOID OF WORK CONTEXT 
 ಕೆ ಲಸದ ಸಂದ ರ್ಭ ವ ನ್ನು ರ ಹಿ ತ ಪ್ರ ದ ರ್ಶ ನಾ ತ್ಮ ಕ ಸಂದ ರ್ಶ ನ ದಿಂ ದ ದೂರ ಸ ರಿ ಯಿ ರಿ MOVE TOWARD GROWN UP CONVERSATIONS STEEPED IN WORK CONTEXT 
 ಕೆ ಲಸದ ಸ ನ್ನಿ ವೇ ಶದ ಲ್ಲಿ ಬೆ ಳೆ ದ ಸಂ ಭಾ ಷ ಣೆ ಗಳ ಕ ಡೆ ಗೆ ಸ ರಿ ಸಿ Inspiring Narrative
The Six Elements of Decision Quality COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Actionable Plans
 Aligned Intention COMMITMENT TO ACTION
High Quality Commitments COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Actionable Plans
 Aligned Intention COMMITMENT TO ACTION Owned by two parties: Requestor and Promisor
 Clear criteria for fulfillment Made with the intention of keeping it HIGH QUALITY PROMISE Made with the space for a decline HIGH QUALITY REQUEST HIGH QUALITY COMMITMENT
The Six Elements of Decision Quality COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Actionable Plans
 Aligned Intention COMMITMENT TO ACTION
Three Dimensions of Decision Making DECISION
 ANALYSIS ETHICAL 
 ANALYSIS LEGAL 
 ANALYSIS Values Personal Ethical Code
 Team Ethical Code Voluntary Social Systems PRUDENTIAL ETHICAL LEGAL
OPEN HOUSE Further Reading DA in Childbirth DA In Prostate Cancer DA in Covid Testing Prof. Ron Howard Free e-Book Product 
 Pricing 
 Strategy
Try Decision Hierarchy, Strategy Table in your meetings Build on your learning Decision Hierarchy tips Create three sections: “Givens”, “Current Decision” and “Future Decision”
 Discover implied Givens and call them out
 Disentagle complex decisions by time and separate into Future Decision Strategy Table tips Create Knobs table defining mutually exclusive alternatives for each decision
 Create Strategy table to express combinations of alternatives with a theme

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Decision Analysis Introduction - BIT

  • 1. To the extent possible under law, Somik Raha has waived all copyright and related or neighboring rights to “An Introduction to Decision Analysis.” This work is published from: United States and India.
  • 2. Introduction to Decision Analysis Will begin shortly Please
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  • 3. Somik Raha Introduction to Decision Analysis
  • 4. Opening Poll Questions: Did you attend yesterday's session 'The Magic of Probability'? 
 ನೀ ವು ನಿ ನ್ನೆ ಯ ಅ ಧಿ ವೇ ಶನ ' ದಿ ಮ್ಯಾ ಜಿ ಕ್ ಆ ಫ್ ಪ್ರಾ ಬ ಬಿ ಲಿ ಟಿ ' ಗೆ ಹಾ ಜ ರಾ ಗಿ ದ್ದೀ ರಾ ? Are you committing to avoiding multitasking in today's session? 
 ಇಂ ದಿ ನ ಅ ಧಿ ವೇ ಶನದ ಲ್ಲಿ ಬಹು ಕಾ ರ್ಯ ಕವ ನ್ನು ತ ಪ್ಪಿ ಸಲು ನೀ ವು ಬ ದ್ಧ ರಾ ಗಿ ದ್ದೀ ರಾ ? Have you turned on your video? If not, would you please turn it on and then confirm below? 
 ನೀ ವು ಇ ನ್ನೂ ನಿ ಮ್ಮ ವೀ ಡಿ ಯೊ ವ ನ್ನು ಆ ನ್ ಮಾ ಡಿ ದ್ದೀ ರಾ ? ಇ ಲ್ಲ ದಿ ದ್ದ ರೆ , ದಯ ವಿ ಟ್ಟು ಅದ ನ್ನು ಆ ನ್ ಮಾ ಡಿ ನಂತರ ಕೆ ಳ ಗೆ ದೃ ಢೀ ಕ ರಿ ಸು ವಿ ರಾ .
  • 5. What is a decision? ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರ ಏನು ? How do you know you’ve made a decision?
 ನೀ ವು ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರ ತೆ ಗೆ ದು ಕೊಂ ಡಿ ದ್ದೀ ರಿ ಎಂದು ನಿ ಮ ಗೆ ಹೇ ಗೆ ಗೊ ತ್ತು ? Please type in your chatbox
 ದಯ ವಿ ಟ್ಟು ನಿ ಮ್ಮ ಚಾ ಟ್ ‌ಬಾ ಕ್ಸ್ ‌ ನ ಲ್ಲಿ ಟೈ ಪ್ ಮಾ ಡಿ
  • 6. by doing what is right Any thing which we decide on our own way means a decision made by one Outcome Tautological or Circular Logic Decision is something which makes human to think about future A selecting a course of action for the proposed problem statement or selecting a mode of action to achieve an objective(short or long term). When we have made a decision, we anticipate an outcome associated with it. The outcome establishes that a decision was made. Thinking Decision is something which we once take we follow it and before taking it we should think of all pros and cons and after that we take it. When I get to know all of it's pros and cons and when i feel like yeah now I can follow it, then I get to know that I have made one decision Clarity of Action When we feel con fi dent on any topic, then we make decisions.. The capability of making a wise choice and having a fi rm hold over it .When ur con fi dent that your decision isn't having negative impact then it's a right one Confident Decision makes my life to go in a right path Deciding to make an action A situation in which one of the options has to be chosen based on the conditions and in order for a desirable outcome. Analysis/Judgment Decision means deciding or selecting a particular task or goal and to achieving it Making a judgement after looking into the problem thoroughly Whenever we have choices in life to choose one thing then we have to think logically considering the beni fi ts or harm to us or others this process is called decision. Whenever my choice clears these steps then I know that I have made the decision. A conclusion or resolution reached after consideration Something which we decide to do Decision is a judgement. Good results need perfect decisions STUDENT RESPONSES
  • 7. Decision. ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರ An irrevocable allocation of resources ಸಂಪ ನ್ಮೂ ಲಗಳ ಬದ ಲಾ ಯಿ ಸ ಲಾ ಗದ ಹಂ ಚಿ ಕೆ
  • 8. Which statements below would you disagree with : A) The economic devastation caused by the Covid lockdown points to a bad decision
 ಕೋ ವಿ ಡ್ ಲಾ ಕ್ ‌ಡೌ ನ್ ‌ನಿಂ ದ ಉಂ ಟಾ ದ ಆ ರ್ಥಿ ಕ ವಿ ನಾ ಶ ವು ಕೆ ಟ್ಟ ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರವ ನ್ನು ಸೂ ಚಿ ಸು ತ್ತ ದೆ 
 B) The lives saved by the Covid lockdown points to a good decision
 ಕೋ ವಿ ಡ್ ಲಾ ಕ್ ‌ಡೌ ನ್ ‌ನಿಂ ದ ಉ ಳಿ ಸ ಲಾ ದ ಜೀ ವಗ ಳು ಉ ತ್ತ ಮ ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರವ ನ್ನು ಸೂ ಚಿ ಸು ತ್ತ ವೆ 
 C) The Chandraayan 2 orbiter crashed on the lunar surface, which proves that its launch decision was a bad one
 ಚಂ ದ್ರ ಯಾ ನ 2 ಆ ರ್ಬಿ ಟ ರ್ ಚಂ ದ್ರ ನ ಮೇ ಲ್ಮೈ ಯ ಲ್ಲಿ ಅ ಪ್ಪ ಳಿ ಸಿ ತು, ಇದು ಅದರ ಉ ಡಾ ವ ಣಾ ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರ ವು ಕೆ ಟ್ಟ ದ್ದಾ ಗಿ ದೆ ಎಂದು ಸಾ ಬೀ ತುಪ ಡಿ ಸು ತ್ತ ದೆ 
 D) We need to see the mistakes in classification to know if our ML algorithm made the right decision
 ನ ಮ್ಮ ML ಅ ಲ್ಗಾ ರಿ ದ ಮ್ ಸ ರಿ ಯಾ ದ ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರವ ನ್ನು ಮಾ ಡಿ ದೆ ಯೇ ಎಂದು ತಿ ಳಿ ಯಲು ನಾ ವು ವ ರ್ಗೀ ಕರಣದ ಲ್ಲಿ ನ ತ ಪ್ಪು ಗಳ ನ್ನು ನೋ ಡ ಬೇ ಕಾ ಗಿ ದೆ POLL QUESTION
  • 9. Principle #1. Decisions vs Outcomes
 ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರಗ ಳು ಮ ತ್ತು ಫ ಲಿ ತಾಂ ಶಗ ಳು You cannot judge a decision from the outcome
 ಫ ಲಿ ತಾಂ ಶ ದಿಂ ದ ನೀ ವು ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರವ ನ್ನು ನಿ ರ್ಣ ಯಿ ಸಲು ಸಾ ಧ್ಯ ವಿ ಲ್ಲ
  • 10. Good Decision Bad Decision Good 
 Outcome Bad 
 Outcome Drive Sober. Reach Home Safe.
  • 11. Good Decision Bad Decision Good 
 Outcome Bad 
 Outcome Drive Drunk. Crash.
  • 12. Good Decision Bad Decision Good 
 Outcome Bad 
 Outcome Drive Drunk. Reach Home Safe.
  • 13. Good Decision Bad Decision Good 
 Outcome Bad 
 Outcome Drive Sober. Crash.
  • 14. Which statements below would you disagree with : A) The economic devastation caused by the Covid lockdown points to a bad decision
 ಕೋ ವಿ ಡ್ ಲಾ ಕ್ ‌ಡೌ ನ್ ‌ನಿಂ ದ ಉಂ ಟಾ ದ ಆ ರ್ಥಿ ಕ ವಿ ನಾ ಶ ವು ಕೆ ಟ್ಟ ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರವ ನ್ನು ಸೂ ಚಿ ಸು ತ್ತ ದೆ 
 B) The lives saved by the Covid lockdown points to a good decision
 ಕೋ ವಿ ಡ್ ಲಾ ಕ್ ‌ಡೌ ನ್ ‌ನಿಂ ದ ಉ ಳಿ ಸ ಲಾ ದ ಜೀ ವಗ ಳು ಉ ತ್ತ ಮ ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರವ ನ್ನು ಸೂ ಚಿ ಸು ತ್ತ ವೆ 
 C) The Chandraayan 2 orbiter crashed on the lunar surface, which proves that its launch decision was a bad one
 ಚಂ ದ್ರ ಯಾ ನ 2 ಆ ರ್ಬಿ ಟ ರ್ ಚಂ ದ್ರ ನ ಮೇ ಲ್ಮೈ ಯ ಲ್ಲಿ ಅ ಪ್ಪ ಳಿ ಸಿ ತು, ಇದು ಅದರ ಉ ಡಾ ವ ಣಾ ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರ ವು ಕೆ ಟ್ಟ ದ್ದಾ ಗಿ ದೆ ಎಂದು ಸಾ ಬೀ ತುಪ ಡಿ ಸು ತ್ತ ದೆ 
 D) We need to see the mistakes in classification to know if our ML algorithm made the right decision
 ನ ಮ್ಮ ML ಅ ಲ್ಗಾ ರಿ ದ ಮ್ ಸ ರಿ ಯಾ ದ ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರವ ನ್ನು ಮಾ ಡಿ ದೆ ಯೇ ಎಂದು ತಿ ಳಿ ಯಲು ನಾ ವು ವ ರ್ಗೀ ಕರಣದ ಲ್ಲಿ ನ ತ ಪ್ಪು ಗಳ ನ್ನು ನೋ ಡ ಬೇ ಕಾ ಗಿ ದೆ POLL QUESTION
  • 15. B > A is not guaranteed, so choosing B is not a good decision . B > A ಅ ನ್ನು ಖಾ ತ ರಿ ಪ ಡಿ ಸ ಲಾ ಗಿ ಲ್ಲ , ಆ ದ್ದ ರಿಂ ದ B ಅ ನ್ನು ಆ ಯ್ಕೆ ಮಾ ಡು ವು ದು ಉ ತ್ತ ಮ ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರ ವಾ ಗು ವು ದಿ ಲ್ಲ . Do you agree with the following? ನೀ ವು ಈ ಕೆ ಳ ಗಿ ನ ವು ಗಳ ನ್ನು ಒ ಪ್ಪು ತ್ತೀ ರಾ ? PDF of A and B 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 A CDF of A and B 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 A CDF of A and B 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 B Crore Rupees Crore Rupees PDF of A and B 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 B
  • 16. Which of the following statements do you consider to be faulty logic? ಕೆ ಳ ಗಿ ನ ಯಾ ವ ಹೇ ಳಿ ಕೆ ಗಳ ನ್ನು ನೀ ವು ದೋ ಷಯು ಕ್ತ ತ ರ್ಕ ವೆಂ ದು ಪ ರಿ ಗ ಣಿ ಸು ತ್ತೀ ರಿ ? 
 A) I am in a tough relationship but can't walk out because of all the years I’ve put in. ನಾ ನು ಹೂ ಡಿ ಕೆ ಮಾ ಡಿ ದ ಎ ಲ್ಲಾ ವ ರ್ಷ ಗ ಳಿಂ ದ ಈ ಕ ಠಿ ಣ ಸಂಬಂಧವ ನ್ನು ಬಿ ಡಲು ಸಾ ಧ್ಯ ವಿ ಲ್ಲ . 
 B) I have already put in so many years into this relationship, hence can’t invest any more. ನಾ ನು ಈ ಗಾ ಗ ಲೇ ಈ ಸಂಬಂಧ ಕ್ಕೆ ಹಲ ವು ವ ರ್ಷ ಗಳ ನ್ನು ಹಾ ಕಿ ದ್ದೇ ನೆ , ಆ ದ್ದ ರಿಂ ದ ಇ ನ್ನು ಮುಂ ದೆ ಹೂ ಡಿ ಕೆ ಮಾ ಡಲು ಸಾ ಧ್ಯ ವಿ ಲ್ಲ . C) I don’t want to fund this project anymore since we’ve already invested 2 years into it. ನಾ ವು ಈ ಗಾ ಗ ಲೇ 2 ವ ರ್ಷ ಗಳ ಕಾ ಲ ಹೂ ಡಿ ಕೆ ಮಾ ಡಿ ರು ವು ದ ರಿಂ ದ ಈ ಯೋ ಜ ನೆ ಗೆ ಇ ನ್ನು ಮುಂ ದೆ ಹಣ ನೀ ಡಲು ನಾ ನು ಬಯಸು ವು ದಿ ಲ್ಲ . D) I have put in so many years into this career, I cannot walk away into something new. ನಾ ನು ಈ ವೃ ತ್ತಿ ಜೀ ವನ ಕ್ಕೆ ಹಲ ವು ವ ರ್ಷ ಗಳ ನ್ನು ಹಾ ಕಿ ದ್ದೇ ನೆ , ನಾ ನು ಹೊ ಸದ ಕ್ಕೆ ಹೋ ಗಲು ಸಾ ಧ್ಯ ವಿ ಲ್ಲ .
  • 17. Principle #2. The Sunk Cost Principl e The past matters for learning, not for accounting.
  • 18. Which of the following statements do you consider to be faulty logic? ಕೆ ಳ ಗಿ ನ ಯಾ ವ ಹೇ ಳಿ ಕೆ ಗಳ ನ್ನು ನೀ ವು ದೋ ಷಯು ಕ್ತ ತ ರ್ಕ ವೆಂ ದು ಪ ರಿ ಗ ಣಿ ಸು ತ್ತೀ ರಿ ? 
 A) I am in a tough relationship but can't walk out because of all the years I’ve put in. ನಾ ನು ಹೂ ಡಿ ಕೆ ಮಾ ಡಿ ದ ಎ ಲ್ಲಾ ವ ರ್ಷ ಗ ಳಿಂ ದ ಈ ಕ ಠಿ ಣ ಸಂಬಂಧವ ನ್ನು ಬಿ ಡಲು ಸಾ ಧ್ಯ ವಿ ಲ್ಲ . 
 B) I have already put in so many years into this relationship, hence can’t invest any more. ನಾ ನು ಈ ಗಾ ಗ ಲೇ ಈ ಸಂಬಂಧ ಕ್ಕೆ ಹಲ ವು ವ ರ್ಷ ಗಳ ನ್ನು ಹಾ ಕಿ ದ್ದೇ ನೆ , ಆ ದ್ದ ರಿಂ ದ ಇ ನ್ನು ಮುಂ ದೆ ಹೂ ಡಿ ಕೆ ಮಾ ಡಲು ಸಾ ಧ್ಯ ವಿ ಲ್ಲ . C) I don’t want to fund this project anymore since we’ve already invested 2 years into it. ನಾ ವು ಈ ಗಾ ಗ ಲೇ 2 ವ ರ್ಷ ಗಳ ಕಾ ಲ ಹೂ ಡಿ ಕೆ ಮಾ ಡಿ ರು ವು ದ ರಿಂ ದ ಈ ಯೋ ಜ ನೆ ಗೆ ಇ ನ್ನು ಮುಂ ದೆ ಹಣ ನೀ ಡಲು ನಾ ನು ಬಯಸು ವು ದಿ ಲ್ಲ . D) I have put in so many years into this career, I cannot walk away into something new. ನಾ ನು ಈ ವೃ ತ್ತಿ ಜೀ ವನ ಕ್ಕೆ ಹಲ ವು ವ ರ್ಷ ಗಳ ನ್ನು ಹಾ ಕಿ ದ್ದೇ ನೆ , ನಾ ನು ಹೊ ಸದ ಕ್ಕೆ ಹೋ ಗಲು ಸಾ ಧ್ಯ ವಿ ಲ್ಲ .
  • 19. How do we judge decision quality?
  • 20. Highlighting the decision maker visually (Prof. Ronald A. Howard)
 ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರ ತೆ ಗೆ ದು ಕೊ ಳ್ಳು ವವರ ನ್ನು ದೃ ಷ್ಟಿ ಗೋ ಚರ ವಾ ಗಿ ಹೈ ಲೈ ಟ್ ಮಾ ಡು ವು ದು ( ಪ್ರೊ . ರೊ ನಾ ಲ್ಡ್ ಎ. ಹೊ ವಾ ರ್ಡ್ ) The Six Elements of Decision Quality
 ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರದ ಗುಣಮ ಟ್ಟ ದ ಆರು ಅಂಶಗ ಳು Visual Principle: Three-legged stool metaphor
 ದೃ ಶ್ಯ ತ ತ್ವ : ಮೂರು ಕಾ ಲಿ ನ ಮಲ ರೂಪಕ
  • 21. Chain metaphor introduced by Strategic Decisions Group
 ಸ್ಟ್ರಾ ಟೆ ಜಿ ಕ್ ಡಿ ಸಿ ಶ ನ್ಸ್ ಗ್ರೂ ಪ್ ಪ ರಿ ಚ ಯಿ ಸಿ ದ ಸರಪ ಳಿ ರೂಪಕ The Six Elements of Decision Qualit y ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರದ ಗುಣಮ ಟ್ಟ ದ ಆರು ಅಂಶಗ ಳು © 2015 Strategic Decisions Group. All rights reserved. Used with permission. v07 2 Creative, Doable Alternatives 3 Meaningful, Reliable Information 4 Clear Values and Trade-offs 6 Commitment to Action DQ Elements of Decision Quality 1 Appropriate Frame 5 Logically Correct Reasoning Visual Principle: Decision only as good as weakest link in the chain
 ವಿ ಷುಯ ಲ್ ಪ್ರಿ ನ್ಸಿ ಪ ಲ್ : ಸರಪ ಳಿ ಯ ಲ್ಲಿ ನ ದು ರ್ಬ ಲ ಲಿಂ ಕ್ ‌ ನ ಷ್ಟೇ ಉ ತ್ತ ಮ ವಾ ದ ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರ
  • 22. Head and Heart dimensions introduced by SmartOrg
 ಸ್ಟ್ರಾ ಟೆ ಜಿ ಕ್ ಡಿ ಸಿ ಶ ನ್ಸ್ ಗ್ರೂ ಪ್ ಪ ರಿ ಚ ಯಿ ಸಿ ದ ಸರಪ ಳಿ ರೂಪಕ The Six Elements of Decision Qualit y ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರದ ಗುಣಮ ಟ್ಟ ದ ಆರು ಅಂಶಗ ಳು Free Resource : Course on Decision Quality Visual Principle: Radar diagram to assess where you are
 ವಿ ಷುಯ ಲ್ ಪ್ರಿ ನ್ಸಿ ಪ ಲ್ : ನೀ ವು ಎ ಲ್ಲಿ ದ್ದೀ ರಿ ಎಂದು ನಿ ರ್ಣ ಯಿ ಸಲು ರಾ ಡಾ ರ್ ರೇ ಖಾ ಚಿ ತ್ರ
  • 23. The Six Elements of Decision Qualit y ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರದ ಗುಣಮ ಟ್ಟ ದ ಆರು ಅಂಶಗ ಳು COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART A L T E R N A T I V E S INF OR MA TIO N V A L U E S COMMITMENT TO ACTION Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts Clear Tradeoffs
 Noble Purpose Insightful Reasoning
 Inspiring Narrative Actionable Plans
 Aligned Intention INTEGRATION VALUES FRAME INFORMATION ALTERNATIVES Warm 
 Heart Cool 
 Head Acknowledgmen t The ideas in the Decision Quality framework presented here are an evolution from the work of many people and organizations, including Prof. Ron Howard, Dr. Carl Spetzler and Strategic Decisions Group, Chris Spetzler and the Decision Education Foundation, Dr. David Matheson and SmartOrg, Inc., and many others.
  • 24. ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರದ ಗುಣಮ ಟ್ಟ ದ ಆರು ಅಂಶಗ ಳು ತಂ ಪಾ ದ 
 ತ ಲೆ ಬೆ ಚ್ಚ ಗಿ ನ 
 ಹೃದಯ ಪ ರ್ಯಾ ಯ ಗ ಳು ಮಾ ಹಿ ತಿ ಮೌ ಲ್ಯ ಗ ಳ ನ್ನು ಕ್ರಿ ಯೆ ಗೆ ಬ ದ್ಧ ತೆ ಉಪಯು ಕ್ತ ದೃ ಷ್ಟಿ ಕೋ ನ
 ಅ ರ್ಥ ಪೂ ರ್ಣ ವಿ ಚಾ ರ ಣೆ ಗ ಳು ವಿ ಶಿ ಷ್ಟ ದಿ ಕ್ಕು ಗ ಳು 
 ಆಸ ಕ್ತಿ ದಾ ಯಕ ಸಾ ಧ್ಯ ತೆ ಗ ಳು ನಂಬಲ ರ್ಹ ಮೂಲಗ ಳು 
 ಬಲ ವಾ ದ ಮು ನ್ಸೂ ಚ ನೆ ಗ ಳು ಸ್ಪ ಷ್ಟ ಸಮ ತೋ ಲನ
 ಉ ದಾ ತ್ತ ಉ ದ್ದೇ ಶ ಒಳ ನೋ ಟ ವು ಳ್ಳ ತಾ ರ್ಕಿ ಕ
 ಸ್ಪೂ ರ್ತಿ ದಾ ಯಕ ನಿ ರೂಪ ಣೆ ಕಾ ರ್ಯ ಸಾ ಧ್ಯ ಯೋ ಜ ನೆ ಗ ಳು 
 ಜೋ ಡಿ ಸ ಲಾ ದ ಉ ದ್ದೇ ಶ ಏ ಕೀ ಕರಣ ಮೌ ಲ್ಯ ಗಳ ನ್ನು ಚೌ ಕ ಟ್ಟು ಮಾ ಹಿ ತಿ ಪ ರ್ಯಾ ಯಗ ಳು ಬೆ ಚ್ಚ ಗಿ ನ 
 ಹೃದಯ ತಂ ಪಾ ದ 
 ತ ಲೆ ಸ್ವೀ ಕೃ ತಿ ಇ ಲ್ಲಿ ಪ್ರ ಸ್ತು ತಪ ಡಿ ಸ ಲಾ ದ ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರದ ಗುಣಮ ಟ್ಟ ದ ಚೌ ಕ ಟ್ಟಿ ನ ಲ್ಲಿ ನ ಆ ಲೋ ಚ ನೆ ಗ ಳು ಅ ನೇ ಕ ಜನರು ಮ ತ್ತು ಸಂ ಸ್ಥೆ ಗಳ ಕೆ ಲಸ ದಿಂ ದ ವಿ ಕಸನ ಗೊಂ ಡಿ ವೆ , ಸೇ ರಿ ದಂ ತೆ ಪ್ರೊ . ರಾ ನ್ ಹೊ ವಾ ರ್ಡ್ , ಡಾ . ಕಾ ರ್ಲ್ ಸ್ಪೆ ಟ್ಜ್ಲ ರ್ ಮ ತ್ತು ಸ್ಟ್ರಾ ಟೆ ಜಿ ಕ್ ಡಿ ಸಿ ಶ ನ್ಸ್ ಗ್ರೂ ಪ್ , ಕ್ರಿ ಸ್ ಸ್ಪೆ ಟ್ಜ್ಲ ರ್ ಮ ತ್ತು ಡಿ ಸಿ ಷ ನ್ ಎಜು ಕೇ ಶ ನ್ ಫೌಂ ಡೇ ಶ ನ್ , ಡಾ . ಡೇ ವಿ ಡ್ ಮ್ಯಾ ಥೆ ಸ ನ್ ಮ ತ್ತು ಸ್ಮಾ ರ್ಟ್ ಆ ರ್ಗ್ , ಇಂ ಕ್ ., ಮ ತ್ತು ಇತರ ಅ ನೇ ಕರು..
  • 25. The Six Elements of Decision Quality COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART A L T E R N A T I V E S INF OR MA TIO N V A L U E S COMMITMENT TO ACTION Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts Clear Tradeoffs
 Noble Purpose Insightful Reasoning
 Inspiring Narrative Actionable Plans
 Aligned Intention INTEGRATION VALUES FRAME INFORMATION ALTERNATIVES Warm 
 Heart Cool 
 Head
  • 26. The Six Elements of Decision Quality COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME
  • 27. Framing a “decision” is an act of authorship
 “ ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರ” ವ ನ್ನು ಚೌ ಕ ಟ್ಟು ಕ ರ್ತೃ ತ್ವ ದ ಕ್ರಿ ಯೆ ಯಾ ಗಿ ದೆ COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME
  • 28. Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision What have we committed to?
 ನಾ ವು ಯಾ ವು ದ ಕ್ಕೆ ಬ ದ್ಧ ರಾ ಗಿ ದ್ದೇ ವೆ ? What do we need to figure out now?
 ನಾ ವು ಈಗ ಏನು ಲೆ ಕ್ಕಾ ಚಾ ರ ಮಾ ಡ ಬೇ ಕು? What do we need to figure out later?
 ನಾ ವು ನಂತರ ಏನು ಲೆ ಕ್ಕಾ ಚಾ ರ ಮಾ ಡಬಹುದು? Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME
  • 29. Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to? SOMIK
 from 20 years back SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME I will help you think through this I will jump out of the role play to give more context
  • 30. Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to? SOMIK
 from 20 years back SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME So what are you really worried about?
  • 31. Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to? SOMIK
 from 20 years back Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back So what are you really worried about? SOMIK
 from 20 years back I don’t want to waste the opportunity
  • 32. Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back So what are you really worried about? SOMIK
 from 20 years back I don’t want to waste the opportunity SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back And how would it be wasted?
  • 33. Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME SOMIK
 from 20 years back I don’t want to waste the opportunity SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back And how would it be wasted? SOMIK
 from 20 years back I could get an offer I don’t really want, 
 and then have only one shot at a dream role
  • 34. Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back And how would it be wasted? SOMIK
 from 20 years back I could get an offer I don’t really want, 
 and then have only one shot at a dream role SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Would you agree that you are committed to only getting offers in companies you are interested in?
  • 35. Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME SOMIK
 from 20 years back I could get an offer I don’t really want, 
 and then have only one shot at a dream role SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Would you agree that you are committed to only getting offers in companies you are interested in? SOMIK
 from 20 years back Yes!
  • 36. Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Would you agree that you are committed to only getting offers in companies you are interested in? SOMIK
 from 20 years back Yes! SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Let’s frame your decision with a decision hierarchy!
  • 37. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to? Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Let’s draw this up Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor
  • 38. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to? Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Let’s continue the dialog! Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back What areas are you ready to eliminate? SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor
  • 39. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to? Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back What areas are you ready to eliminate? SOMIK
 from 20 years back I don’t want to work on Y2K problems!
  • 40. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to? Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back What areas are you ready to eliminate? SOMIK
 from 20 years back I don’t want to work on Y2K problems! SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor Y2K: The Year 2000 Bug affecting date fields in databases
  • 41. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to? Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back What areas are you ready to eliminate? SOMIK
 from 20 years back I don’t want to work on Y2K problems! SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Ok, let’s add that in
  • 42. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Let’s add the new given! Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor
  • 43. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Let’s eliminate alternatives! Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor
  • 44. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back What areas are you ready to eliminate? SOMIK
 from 20 years back I don’t want to work on Y2K problems! SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back So how does this look? SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor Let’s continue!
  • 45. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK
 from 20 years back I don’t want to work on Y2K problems! SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back So how does this look? SOMIK
 from 20 years back Good to eliminate some alternatives.
  • 46. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back So how does this look? SOMIK
 from 20 years back Good to eliminate some alternatives. SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Let’s keep going. What are you interested in?
  • 47. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK
 from 20 years back Good to eliminate some alternatives. SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Let’s keep going. What are you interested in? SOMIK
 from 20 years back Artificial Intelligence!
  • 48. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Let’s keep going. What are you interested in? SOMIK
 from 20 years back Artificial Intelligence! SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Well, I don’t think any of these companies are doing AI.
  • 49. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK
 from 20 years back Artificial Intelligence! SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Well, I don’t think any of these companies are doing AI. SOMIK
 from 20 years back Right, but if they care about innovation,
 maybe they will make the space.
  • 50. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Well, I don’t think any of these companies are doing AI. SOMIK
 from 20 years back Right, but if they care about innovation,
 maybe they will make the space. SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back So looks like innovation is another given for you?
  • 51. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK
 from 20 years back Right, but if they care about innovation,
 maybe they will make the space. SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back So looks like innovation is another given for you? SOMIK
 from 20 years back Absolutely!
  • 52. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back So looks like innovation is another given for you? SOMIK
 from 20 years back Absolutely! SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Just curious, how would you know if the company is open to innovation?
  • 53. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK
 from 20 years back Absolutely! SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Just curious, how would you know if the company is open to innovation? SOMIK
 from 20 years back I would look at their track record in 
 building products.
  • 54. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Just curious, how would you know if the company is open to innovation? SOMIK
 from 20 years back I would look at their track record in 
 building products. SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Ok, let’s add that in as a given.
  • 55. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Let’s add the given! Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to companies that build products SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor
  • 56. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Let’s eliminate alternatives! Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to companies that build products SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor
  • 57. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Let’s continue the dialog! Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to companies that build products SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Ok, let’s add that in as a given SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back How does this feel? SOMIK
 from 20 years back I would look at their track record in 
 building products.
  • 58. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Let’s continue the dialog! Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to companies that build products SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Ok, let’s add that in as a given SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back How does this feel? SOMIK
 from 20 years back This is really helpful, but now I don’t 
 have too many alternatives.
  • 59. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to companies that build products SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back How does this feel? SOMIK
 from 20 years back This is really helpful, but now I don’t 
 have too many alternatives. SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Yes, let’s talk about that. Are you limited to only placement cell opportunities?
  • 60. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to companies that build products SOMIK
 from 20 years back This is really helpful, but now I don’t 
 have too many alternatives. SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Yes, let’s talk about that. Are you limited to only placement cell opportunities? SOMIK
 from 20 years back Not at all. I want to keep looking for
 AI opportunities.
  • 61. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to companies that build products SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Yes, let’s talk about that. Are you limited to only placement cell opportunities? SOMIK
 from 20 years back Not at all. I want to keep looking for
 AI opportunities. SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Let’s mark that as another given.
  • 62. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F
 B G
 C H
 D I
 E J Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to companies that build products Will keep looking for AI opportunities off-campus Let’s add the new given! SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor
  • 63. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus and off-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F K
 B G L
 C H M
 D I N
 E J O Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to roles that have space for innovation Let’s change the current decision SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor Will keep looking for AI opportunities off-campus
  • 64. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus and off-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F K
 B G L
 C H M
 D I N
 E J O Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to roles that have space for innovation Let’s continue the dialog! SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor Will keep looking for AI opportunities off-campus SOMIK
 from 20 years back Not at all. I want to keep looking for
 AI opportunities. SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Let’s mark that as another given. SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Let’s talk about your future decision. What do you think it is?
  • 65. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus and off-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F K
 B G L
 C H M
 D I N
 E J O Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to roles that have space for innovation Let’s change current decision SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor Will keep looking for AI opportunities off-campus SOMIK
 from 20 years back I think it is: “When should I stop looking
 and accept an offer?” SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Let’s mark that as another given. SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Let’s talk about your future decision. What do you think it is?
  • 66. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus and off-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F K
 B G L
 C H M
 D I N
 E J O Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to roles that have space for innovation Let’s change current decision SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor Will keep looking for AI opportunities off-campus SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Let’s talk about your future decision. What do you think it is? SOMIK
 from 20 years back I think it is: “When should I stop looking
 and accept an offer?” SOMIK’s INNER FRIEND
 from 20 years back Great, let’s add that in!
  • 67. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus and off-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F K
 B G L
 C H M
 D I N
 E J O Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to roles that have space for innovation This is the decision frame SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor Will keep looking for AI opportunities off-campus When should I stop looking and accept an offer? WHAT ARE YOUR REFLECTIONS FROM THIS DIALOG?
  • 68. Given Current
 Decision Future
 Decision Framing Tool: Decision Hierarchy COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Role Play Which on-campus and off-campus companies should I apply to?
 A F K
 B G L
 C H M
 D I N
 E J O Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME Will not apply to companies that are not interesting to me Will not apply to companies hiring for Y2K roles Will only apply to roles that have space for innovation This is the decision frame SOMIK 
 Workshop Instructor Will keep looking for AI opportunities off-campus When should I stop looking and accept an offer? ETHICAL CONSEQUENCES OF A LACK OF CLARITY
  • 69. The Six Elements of Decision Quality COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Useful Perspective
 Meaningful Inquiries FRAME
  • 70. The Six Elements of Decision Quality COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES
  • 71. What is strategy? COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES
  • 72. COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Strategy is something which is made with perfect plan and perfect decision A particular method or way to do things which is planned Strategy is a well-de fi ned course of action made from legitimate input data from the current situation that helps us achieve the objectives and end-goals in the most optimal way. A speci fi c pathway you choose by planning which leads to your destination step by step. Process Optimization Route to Goal do right things Strategy is something what which is required to perform any task or something important to us in well structured and nice way so that the chances of getting it fail is low The way of counterattacking any challenge Planning to do things way more productive in lesser time and work, basically smart work various components to achieve a desired state in the future A tactic calculated after considering the obstructions to get the desirable outcome A perfect planning to achieve the aim A plan or some type of blueprint to solve the problem ahead or to accomplish a goal Strategy is a logical and planned way in order to complete a task within given constraints Way to fi nd solution Plan to achieve something It might be a mind mapping to complete a task Your plan of action Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES What is 
 Strategy?
  • 73. What is strategy? ತಂ ತ್ರ ಏನು A set of interconnected alternatives
 ಅಂತ ರ್ಸಂ ಪ ರ್ಕಿ ತ ಪ ರ್ಯಾ ಯಗಳ ಒಂದು ಸಂ ಗ್ರ ಹ ಣೆ COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES
  • 74. Framing Tool: Strategy Table COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART ALTERNATIVE 1 Decision 1 ALTERNATIVE 2 ALTERNATIVE 3 ALTERNATIVE 1 Decision 2 ALTERNATIVE 2 ALTERNATIVE 3 ALTERNATIVE 1 Decision 3 ALTERNATIVE 2 ALTERNATIVE 3 Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES
  • 75. Framing Tool: Strategy Table COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART ALTERNATIVE 1 Decision 1 ALTERNATIVE 2 ALTERNATIVE 3 ALTERNATIVE 1 Decision 2 ALTERNATIVE 2 ALTERNATIVE 3 ALTERNATIVE 1 Decision 3 ALTERNATIVE 2 ALTERNATIVE 3 Strategy Theme 1 Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES
  • 76. Framing Tool: Strategy Table COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART ALTERNATIVE 1 Decision 1 ALTERNATIVE 2 ALTERNATIVE 3 ALTERNATIVE 1 Decision 2 ALTERNATIVE 2 ALTERNATIVE 3 ALTERNATIVE 1 Decision 3 ALTERNATIVE 2 ALTERNATIVE 3 Strategy Theme 2 Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES
  • 77. Framing Tool: Strategy Table COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Final Year AI Project 3rd Year 2nd Year Industry Sponsor Research Lab On Campus Self Team Team of 2 Team of 3 Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES Case Study: 
 What is my strategy for building an AI career? 1st Year Team of 4 At Home
  • 78. Framing Tool: Strategy Table COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Final Year AI Project 3rd Year 2nd Year Industry Sponsor Research Lab On Campus Self Team Team of 2 Team of 3 Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES Case Study: 
 What is my strategy for building an AI career? 1st Year Team of 4 Strategy Theme LAZY Maybe At Home
  • 79. Framing Tool: Strategy Table COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Final Year AI Project 3rd Year 2nd Year Industry Sponsor Research Lab On Campus Self Team Team of 2 Team of 3 Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES Case Study: 
 What is my strategy for building an AI career? 1st Year Team of 4 Strategy Theme REACTIVE Maybe At Home
  • 80. Framing Tool: Strategy Table COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Final Year AI Project 3rd Year 2nd Year Industry Sponsor Research Lab On Campus Self Team Team of 2 Team of 3 Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES Case Study: 
 What is my strategy for building an AI career? 1st Year Team of 4 Strategy Theme EARLY 
 START Maybe At Home
  • 81. Framing Tool: Strategy Table COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Final Year AI Project 3rd Year 2nd Year Industry Sponsor Research Lab On Campus Self Team Team of 2 Team of 3 Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES Case Study: 
 What is my strategy for building an AI career? 1st Year Team of 4 Strategy Theme USE 
 BREAKS Maybe At Home
  • 82. Framing Tool: Strategy Table COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Final Year AI Project 3rd Year 2nd Year Industry Sponsor Research Lab On Campus Self Team Team of 2 Team of 3 Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES Case Study: 
 What is my strategy for building an AI career? 1st Year Team of 4 Strategy Theme FIND 
 BREAKS Maybe At Home
  • 83. Framing Tool: Strategy Table COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Final Year AI Project 3rd Year 2nd Year Industry Sponsor Research Lab On Campus Self Team Team of 2 Team of 3 Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES Case Study: 
 What is my strategy for building an AI career? 1st Year Team of 4 Strategy Theme CLASS
 PROJECTS Maybe At Home
  • 84. Framing Tool: Strategy Table COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Final Year AI Project 3rd Year 2nd Year Industry Sponsor Research Lab Team Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES Case Study: 
 What is my strategy for building an AI career? 1st Year Team of 4 Strategy Theme FIND BREAKS Maybe LAZY REACTIVE Team of 4 EARLY START USE BREAKS On Campus Self Team of 4 At Home Self NOTE: I could do EARLY START, CLASS PROJECTS, USE BREAKS & FIND BREAKS - THEY OPERATE IN DIFFERENT TIME SCALES Research Lab 3rd Year CLASS PROJECTS Industry Team of 2,3,4
  • 85. The Six Elements of Decision Quality COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Distinct Directions
 Interesting Possibilities ALTERNATIVES
  • 86. The Six Elements of Decision Quality COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION
  • 87. COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Reading Ability Shoe Size 15 7 22 9 35 10 7 6 9 6.5 What can you infer? Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION
  • 88. COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Shoe Size Reading Ability May be relevant to Not an “Influence Diagram” RELEVANCE DIAGRAM Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION
  • 89. COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION Shoe Size Reading Ability Irrelevant given X RELEVANCE DIAGRAM X Given “X”, Shoe Size and Reading Ability are irrelevant to each other
  • 90. COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION Shoe Size Reading Ability Irrelevant given X RELEVANCE DIAGRAM Given Age, Shoe Size and Reading Ability are irrelevant to each other Age Bottomline: Vaccinate yourself against causal thoughts
  • 91. Find the “X” factor Breakout Exercise https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220208/vitamin-d-deficiency-tied-to-severe-covid What might make Vitamin D deficiency irrelevant to Severe Covid?
  • 92. COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION FUNNELS MAPS Also known as a relevance diagram! Penetrated Market Total Addressable Market Market Penetration 10,000 widgets 10% 1000 widgets Share Widgets Sold 300 widgets
  • 93. Where does probability come from? COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION
  • 94. Poll: Where does probability come from? COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION A. From nature, to be discovered through direct observation. ಪ್ರ ಕೃ ತಿ ಯಿಂ ದ, ನೇ ರ ವೀ ಕ್ಷ ಣೆ ಯ ಮೂಲಕ ಕಂಡು ಹಿ ಡಿ ಯ ಬೇ ಕು B. From our beliefs. ನ ಮ್ಮ ನಂ ಬಿ ಕೆ ಗ ಳಿಂ ದ . C. From past observations. ಹಿಂ ದಿ ನ ಅವ ಲೋ ಕನಗ ಳಿಂ ದ . D. From a fair coin. ನ್ಯಾ ಯಯುತ ನಾ ಣ್ಯ ದಿಂ ದ.
  • 95. COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION Psst… Sojan, take a look. Prabha, What’s your probability of heads? Sojan, What’s your probability of heads? Sojan, What’s your probability of heads? Prabha, What’s your probability of heads? 50% 50% 100% 50%
  • 96. “My Probability ” 
 {Event | &} COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION “Ampersand: My state of information” Given Probability of Probability is a state of YOUR information PERSONAL PROBABILITY
  • 97. “My Probability ” 
 {Event | &} COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Distinction: Must pass the clarity test Can tell you “facts” about the future Cannot tell you if a model is right Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION THE CLAIRVOYANT
  • 98. Who needs uncertainty when you have data?
 ನಿ ಮ್ಮ ಬ ಳಿ ಡೇ ಟಾ ಇ ದ್ದಾ ಗ ಯಾ ರಿ ಗೆ ಅ ನಿ ಶ್ಚಿ ತ ತೆ ಬೇ ಕು? Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION
  • 99. What’s the chance it will get its next meal?1 The statistical turkey P(Next meal) = # of days fe d # of days fed + 1 After 1000 days, 
 P(Next meal) = 99.99% But, day 1001 is Thanksgiving! 1 Example from Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book, “The Black Swan” Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION
  • 100. Seeing this, you would know what to do Compelling Information Story Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION
  • 101. The Six Elements of Decision Quality COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Credible Sources
 Compelling Forecasts INFORMATION
  • 102. The Six Elements of Decision Quality COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Clear Tradeoffs
 Noble Purpose VALUES
  • 103. Understanding tradeoffs COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Take complexity off the table so we can focus on who we want to be The Nature Conservancy Story i n The Business of Impact Measurement Clear Tradeoffs
 Noble Purpose VALUES
  • 104. Noble Purpose is what makes our metrics valid COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Story of Plastic Packaging Clear Tradeoffs
 Noble Purpose VALUES Clarity on who we want to be precedes strategy Resource: Video on “Emotions and Decision Analysis”
  • 105. How did values play out in our case studies? COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Clear Tradeoffs
 Noble Purpose VALUES
  • 106. The Six Elements of Decision Quality COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Clear Tradeoffs
 Noble Purpose VALUES
  • 107. The Six Elements of Decision Quality COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Insightful Reasoning
 Inspiring Narrative INTEGRATION
  • 108. Integration is where logic comes in COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART The Five Rules of Actional Thought Resource: 
 Lecture by Dr. Steve Tani Insightful Reasoning
 Inspiring Narrative INTEGRATION 1 Probability Rule
 2 Order Rule
 3 Equivalence Rule
 4 Substitution Rule
 5 Choice Rule Resource:
  • 109. An Example: Integration of Logic and Narrative Integration is also where inspiring narrative comes in Case Study: Hiring for Decision Intelligence roles
 ಕೇ ಸ್ ಸ್ಟ ಡಿ : ಡಿ ಸಿ ಷ ನ್ ಇಂ ಟೆ ಲಿ ಜೆ ನ್ಸ್ ಪಾ ತ್ರ ಗ ಳಿ ಗೆ ನೇ ಮಕ
  • 110. An Example: Integration of Logic and Narrative Integration is also where inspiring narrative comes in Hiring for Decision Intelligence is hard because 1. Candidates tend to oversell themselves in order to impress interviewer
 ಸಂದ ರ್ಶ ಕರ ನ್ನು ಮೆ ಚ್ಚಿ ಸಲು ಅ ಭ್ಯ ರ್ಥಿ ಗ ಳು ತ ಮ್ಮ ನ್ನು ಅ ತಿ ಯಾ ಗಿ ಮಾ ರಾ ಟ ಮಾ ಡು ತ್ತಾ ರೆ 2. Puzzles are usually not a good indicator of actual work
 ಒಗಟುಗ ಳು ಸಾ ಮಾ ನ್ಯ ವಾ ಗಿ ನಿ ಜ ವಾ ದ ಕೆ ಲಸದ ಉ ತ್ತ ಮ ಸೂಚಕವ ಲ್ಲ 3. Decision Intelligence roles require ability to intuitively understand probability
 ನಿ ರ್ಧಾ ರ ಬು ದ್ಧಿ ವಂ ತಿ ಕೆ ಯ ಪಾ ತ್ರ ಗ ಳಿ ಗೆ ಸಂಭವ ನೀ ಯ ತೆ ಯ ನ್ನು ಅಂತ ರ್ಬೋ ಧೆ ಯಿಂ ದ ಅ ರ್ಥ ಮಾ ಡಿ ಕೊ ಳ್ಳು ವ ಸಾ ಮ ರ್ಥ್ಯ ದ ಅಗ ತ್ಯ ವಿ ರು ತ್ತ ದೆ 4. Hard to identify aptitude in areas that need deep context
 ಆಳ ವಾ ದ ಸಂದ ರ್ಭ ದ ಅಗ ತ್ಯ ವಿ ರುವ ಪ್ರ ದೇ ಶಗಳ ಲ್ಲಿ ಯೋ ಗ್ಯ ತೆ ಯ ನ್ನು ಗುರು ತಿ ಸು ವು ದು ಕ ಷ್ಟ 5. Actual case studies take up too much time on the part of the candidate
 ನಿ ಜ ವಾ ದ ಕೇ ಸ್ ಸ್ಟ ಡೀ ಸ್ ಅ ಭ್ಯ ರ್ಥಿ ಯ ಕ ಡೆ ಯಿಂ ದ ಹೆ ಚ್ಚು ಸಮಯ ತೆ ಗೆ ದು ಕೊ ಳ್ಳು ತ್ತ ದೆ Insightful Reasoning Therefore 1. Give candidates articles to read, with enough time (a week)
 ಅ ಭ್ಯ ರ್ಥಿ ಗ ಳಿ ಗೆ ಲೇ ಖನಗಳ ನ್ನು ಓದಲು ನೀ ಡಿ ಮ ತ್ತು ಅವ ರಿ ಗೆ ಸಾ ಕ ಷ್ಟು ಸಮಯವ ನ್ನು ನೀ ಡಿ (ಒಂದು ವಾ ರ ) 2. Articles should be representative of the work being done
 ಲೇ ಖನಗ ಳು ಮಾ ಡು ತ್ತಿ ರುವ ಕೆ ಲಸವ ನ್ನು ಪ್ರ ತಿ ನಿ ಧಿ ಸುವಂ ತಿ ರ ಬೇ ಕು 3. Dialog on the article and test for understanding, depth, curiosity, receptivity
 ಲೇ ಖನದ ಕು ರಿ ತು ಸಂ ವಾ ದ ಮಾ ಡಿ ಮ ತ್ತು ತಿ ಳು ವ ಳಿ ಕೆ , ಆಳ, ಕುತೂಹಲ, ಗ್ರ ಹಿ ಕೆ ಯ ನ್ನು ಪ ರೀ ಕ್ಷಿ ಸಿ 4. Encourage appreciation of daily work based on articles
 ಲೇ ಖನಗಳ ಆ ಧಾ ರದ ಮೇ ಲೆ ದೈ ನಂ ದಿ ನ ಕೆ ಲಸವ ನ್ನು ಅ ರ್ಥ ಮಾ ಡಿ ಕೊ ಳ್ಳ ಲು ಪ್ರೋ ತ್ಸಾ ಹಿ ಸಿ
  • 111. An Example: Integration of Logic and Narrative Integration is also where inspiring narrative comes in Hiring for Decision Intelligence is hard because 1. Candidates tend to oversell themselves in order to impress interviewe r 2. Puzzles are usually not a good indicator of actual wor k 3. Technical roles require ability to intuitively understand probabilit y 4. Hard to identify aptitude in areas that need deep contex t 5. Actual case studies take up too much time on the part of the candidate Therefore 1. Give candidates articles to read, and given them ) 2. Articles should be representative of the work be e 3. Have a dialog on the article and test for unders y 4. Encourage realization of daily work based on art Insightful Reasoning
  • 112. An Example: Integration of Logic and Narrative Integration is also where inspiring narrative comes in MOVE AWAY FROM PERFORMATIVE INTERVIEWING DEVOID OF WORK CONTEXT 
 ಕೆ ಲಸದ ಸಂದ ರ್ಭ ವ ನ್ನು ರ ಹಿ ತ ಪ್ರ ದ ರ್ಶ ನಾ ತ್ಮ ಕ ಸಂದ ರ್ಶ ನ ದಿಂ ದ ದೂರ ಸ ರಿ ಯಿ ರಿ MOVE TOWARD GROWN UP CONVERSATIONS STEEPED IN WORK CONTEXT 
 ಕೆ ಲಸದ ಸ ನ್ನಿ ವೇ ಶದ ಲ್ಲಿ ಬೆ ಳೆ ದ ಸಂ ಭಾ ಷ ಣೆ ಗಳ ಕ ಡೆ ಗೆ ಸ ರಿ ಸಿ Inspiring Narrative
  • 113. The Six Elements of Decision Quality COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Actionable Plans
 Aligned Intention COMMITMENT TO ACTION
  • 114. High Quality Commitments COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Actionable Plans
 Aligned Intention COMMITMENT TO ACTION Owned by two parties: Requestor and Promisor
 Clear criteria for fulfillment Made with the intention of keeping it HIGH QUALITY PROMISE Made with the space for a decline HIGH QUALITY REQUEST HIGH QUALITY COMMITMENT
  • 115. The Six Elements of Decision Quality COOL 
 HEAD WARM 
 HEART Actionable Plans
 Aligned Intention COMMITMENT TO ACTION
  • 116. Three Dimensions of Decision Making DECISION
 ANALYSIS ETHICAL 
 ANALYSIS LEGAL 
 ANALYSIS Values Personal Ethical Code
 Team Ethical Code Voluntary Social Systems PRUDENTIAL ETHICAL LEGAL
  • 117. OPEN HOUSE Further Reading DA in Childbirth DA In Prostate Cancer DA in Covid Testing Prof. Ron Howard Free e-Book Product 
 Pricing 
 Strategy
  • 118. Try Decision Hierarchy, Strategy Table in your meetings Build on your learning Decision Hierarchy tips Create three sections: “Givens”, “Current Decision” and “Future Decision”
 Discover implied Givens and call them out
 Disentagle complex decisions by time and separate into Future Decision Strategy Table tips Create Knobs table defining mutually exclusive alternatives for each decision
 Create Strategy table to express combinations of alternatives with a theme