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Green Hydrogen Financial Model Toolkit LCOH
1.
Toolkit for Renewable
Energy Project Development © 2020 Fadi Maalouf Version: 5 Date: 4/12/2021 Green Hydrogen from RE Powered Electrolysis Plant Pre-Feasibility Study Levelized Cost of Hydrogen Financial Model Analysis Green-Hydrogen-Model-LCOH-rev-5-fm211204-draft-1-30yrs-1GWe-70pcCF-1.8cent-OPT-R3 Cover © 2020 Fadi Maalouf Version: 5 Date: 4/12/2021 Page 1 of 17
2.
Toolkit CONTENT S.N. Description Link 1
Cover Cover 2 Content Content 3 Disclaimer Disclaimer 4 Project Info Summary Project-Info-Summary 5 Inputs Form Guide Inputs-Form-Guide 6 Pre-COD Finance Cost Pre-COD-Finance-Cost 7 Summary Inputs Outputs Summary-Inputs-Outputs 8 Cashflow Cashflow 9 Sensitivity 1D 2D Sensitivity-1D-2D 10 Export 2D Hi Res Table for GIS Export-2D-HiRes 11 Export Charts Export-Charts 12 Contact Contact Green-Hydrogen-Model-LCOH-rev-5-fm211204-draft-1-30yrs-1GWe-70pcCF-1.8cent-OPT-R3 Content © 2020 Fadi Maalouf Version: 5 Date: 4/12/2021 2 of 17
3.
Toolkit Disclaimer This document does
not constitute legal, financial, technical advice nor any advice of any sort. It is issued for general information and research purposes only. All stakeholders should seek their own in-house and/or external suitably qualified and experienced professional certified advisors. The author, affiliates, agents, officers, directors, advisors, consultants, advisory board members and employees do not warrant the correctness, completeness, accuracy of this document nor fitness of information covered in this document for any purpose, and shall not be held liable for any direct, indirect, special and consequential liability nor any sort of losses, injury and damages or likewise resulting from the use of information covered in this document. Green-Hydrogen-Model-LCOH-rev-5-fm211204-draft-1-30yrs-1GWe-70pcCF-1.8cent-OPT-R3 Disclaimer © 2020 Fadi Maalouf Version: 5 Date: 4/12/2021 Page 3 of 17
4.
Toolkit Green Hydrogen from
RE Powered Electrolysis Plant - LCOH Project Information Summary Project Communication Details Project Title Green Hydrogen Plant Project Reference No. Project Location Project Sponsor Organization Contact Person Mobile Email Web Project Data Room Page Link Document Title Document Version Document Date 4-Dec-2021 Project Techno-Commercial Details Electrolyzer Plant Effective Capacity (kWe DC) 1,000,000 Electrolyzer Technology (ALK/PEM/SOEC/Other) ALK Estimated Commercial Operation Date (yr) 2025 Electrolyzer Plant Annual Capacity Factor (%) Electrolyzer Plant Estimated Annual Production (Kg H2/yr) Electrolyzer Plant H2 Output Pressure (bar) Energy Supply (RE PV/Wind/Other) Grid Connection Capacity (MW) Grid Connection Voltage (33/132/220/400 kV) Water Supply (RO Plant/Process Water/Other) Water Supply Capacity (m3 /day) Project Land Plot Requirement (m2 ) Project Structure Description Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) Project Offtake Agreements Description Project Supply Agreements Description Project EPC/EPCM Agreements Description Project Energy Supply Agreements Description Project O&M Agreements Description Project Finance Term Sheet Agreements Description Project Capital Structure Description Equity Bridge Loan, Equity and Sr. Debt Pre-COD Finance Cost Construction Period (Months) 18.0 CAPEX Credit Period (Months) 0.0 Equity Bridge Loan Interest Rate (p.a.) 3.75% Debt Interest Rate During Construction (p.a.) 3.75% EBL Commitment Fee as % of Debt (%) 0.30% EBL Upfront Fee as % of Debt (%) 1.20% Sr. Debt Commitment Fee as % of Debt (%) 0.30% Sr. Debt Upfront Fee as % of Debt (%) 1.20% Drawdown Selection: Uniform or Custom? Custom Custom Drawdown Month 1 (%) 10.00% Equity Percentage 25.00% Debt Percentage 75.00% Other Info Other Info Other Info Other Info Other Info Other Info Other Info Other Info Other Info Other Info Other Info Other Info Other Info Green-Hydrogen-Model-LCOH-rev-5-fm211204-draft-1-30yrs-1GWe-70pcCF-1.8cent-OPT-R3 Project-Info-Summary © 2020 Fadi Maalouf Version: 5 Date: 4/12/2021 Page 4 of 17
5.
Toolkit Green Hydrogen from
RE Powered Electrolysis Plant - LCOH PRE-FEASIBILITY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS - BASELINE CASE - INPUTS FORM GUIDE & NOTES INPUTS FILL IN INPUTS FOR WHITE BACKGROUND CELLS ONLY General Analysis Period (years) 30 Reference Year for Technology & Costs (year) 2025 Electrolyzer Technology ALK H2 Plant Economies of Scale (MWe) 1000 Finance Structure Debt Percentage Equity Percentage Debt Interest Rate Return on Equity Rate WACC / Nominal Discount Rate Capital Expenditure Electrolyzer Stack Package Cost ($/kWe DC) Electrolyzer Stack Package Cost ($) Electrical & Mechanical BoP Packages Cost ($/kWe DC) Electrical & Mechanical BoP Packages Cost ($) Overall Civil & Infrastructure Package Cost ($/kWe DC) Overall Civil & Infrastructure Package Cost ($) HV Substation Package Cost ($/kWe DC) HV Substation Package Cost ($) Plant Start-up Package Cost ($/kWe DC) Plant Start-up Package Cost ($) EPCM Service Package Cost ($/kWe DC) EPCM Service Package Cost ($) EPC Cost ($/kWe DC) EPC Cost ($) Project Developer Contingencies Allocation as % of EPC Cost (%) Project Developer Contingencies Allocation Cost ($/kWe DC) Project Developer Contingencies Allocation Cost ($) Project Development Cost ($/kWe DC) Project Development Cost ($) Total CAPEX Cost ($/kWe DC) Total CAPEX Cost ($) Taxes GST/VAT Rate During Construction (%) Taxes GST/VAT ($/kWe DC) Taxes GST/VAT ($) Finance Cost During Construction as % of Total CAPEX w/ Taxes (%) Finance Cost During Construction ($/kWe DC) Finance Cost During Construction ($) Total Overnight CAPEX Cost w/ Taxes ($/kWe DC) Total Overnight CAPEX Cost w/ Taxes ($) O&M Expenditure Taxes GST/VAT Rate During Operation (%) Weighted Avg. (PV &/or Wind &/or Other) Energy Unit Rate Net Cost ($/kWhe AC) Energy Net Cost Annual Escalation Yr2+ (%) Energy Consumption Yr1 (kWhe AC/yr) Energy Consumption Net Cost Yr1 ($/yr) General Fixed O&M Cost as % of EPC Cost (%) General Fixed O&M Annual Escalation Yr2+ (%) General Fixed O&M Cost Yr1 w/ Taxes GST/VAT Yr1 ($/yr) RE Powered RO Desalinated Water Unit Rate Net Cost ($/m3 ) Water Net Cost Annual Escalation Yr2+ (%) Specific Water Consumption (m3 /Kg H2) Water Consumption Yr1 (m3 /yr) Water Consumption Net Cost Yr1 ($/yr) MMRA - Electrolyzer Stack Replacement Cost as % of Initial EPC Cost (%) MMRA - Electrolyzer Stack Replacement Year N, multi-interval (yr) 11 MMRA - Electrolyzer Stack Replacement Cost Allocation Yr1 to YrN-1, multi-interval ($/yr) H2 Electrolyzer Plant Leased Land Area (m2 ) H2 Electrolyzer Plant Leased Land Cost ($/m2 /yr) H2 Electrolyzer Plant Leased Land Cost ($/yr) System H2 Electrolyzer Plant Effective Capacity (kWe DC) H2 Electrolyzer Plant Total Specific Energy Consumption Yr1 (kWhe AC/Kg H2) H2 Electrolyzer Stack Specific Energy Consumption Yr1 (kWhe AC/Kg H2) H2 Balance of Plant (BoP) Specific Energy Consumption Yr1 (kWhe AC/Kg H2) H2 Electrolyzer Stack AC/DC Rectifier Efficiency (%) H2 Electrolyzer Stack Specific Energy Consumption Yr1 (kWhe DC/Kg H2) H2 Electrolyzer Plant Specific Production Yr1 (Kg H2/kWhe DC) H2 Electrolyzer Plant Capacity Factor per Year (%) H2 Electrolyzer Plant Full Load Equivalent Operating Hours per Year (hr) H2 Electrolyzer Plant Gross Annual Production Yr1 (Kg H2) H2 Electrolyzer Plant Annual Production Degradation Yr1 (%/1000 hrs) H2 Electrolyzer Plant Annual Production Degradation Yr2+ (%/1000 hrs) Apply Degradation to H2 Electrolyzer Plant Annual Production ? (Yes/No) Yes H2 Electrolyzer Plant Annual Production Degradation Yr1 (%/year) H2 Electrolyzer Plant Annual Production Degradation Yr2+ (%/year) H2 Electrolyzer Plant Annual Availability (%) H2 Electrolyzer Plant Net Annual Production Yr1 (Kg H2) Residual Value at End of Service Life Net of Decommissioning Cost & Residual Value, as % of EPC at EoL 0.00% Select "Yes" if stack degradation is to be accounted for ("Yes" is default setting). Select "No" if stack degradation is to be ignored. 1.5% to 3.0% for LSTK type EPC contracts. Linear degradation. Verify with electrolyzer stack technology provider. Calculated based on plant annual capacity factor. Country Specific (e.g. default is 1 $/m2 ). Could be 0 if project is exempted (free land grant/lease). Applies to H2 production and CAPEX costing calculations. Degradation is applied to this effective capacity. Calculated Net value kWhe DC for Electrolyzer Stack Only. Based on selected technology. Calculated specific production value in Kg H2 per kWhe DC plant effective capacity. Selected Capacity Factor shall match the available and used Weighted Average Cost of Energy (from VRE). Calculated based on plant capacity factor. Plant gross production (excludes degradation and availability losses). Linear Degradation. Verify with electrolyzer stack technology provider. Linear Degradation. Verify with electrolyzer stack technology provider. Default is 99.5% if plant default capacity factor is around 60%. If intended capacity factor is 100%, then set availability to max 97%. Includes plant degradation losses (if applied) and plant availability losses. Fixed and set to 0% (deactivated function, Decom Cost = Residual Value). Linear degradation. Verify with electrolyzer stack technology provider. Calculated based on plant annual capacity factor. Net value kWh AC for complete plant (Electrolyzer + BoP). Verify with selected technology provider. Calculated value: Net value kWh AC for Electrolyzer Stack Only. Verify with selected technology provider. Default estimate is 2 Hectares for 100 MWe plant. To be based on selected technology & project concept design. Calculated value: Net value kWh AC for BoP Only. Verify with selected technology provider. Enter the efficiency of rectifier that powers electrolyzer stack. Based on selected electrolyzer technology (Est. 20%). Net expenditure, Includes removal and residual value of used equipment (recycling). Fixed. Assumed Stack Life is 10 years and with one replacement cycle for fixed 20 years plant life. Override with multi-interval is possible. Default is 2% (estimate to be based on used technology). Default is 2% (estimate to be based on CPI & Other Relevant Industrial Inflation Indexes). Based on economies of scale & "green water" (i.e. powered by renewables, RO desalination environmental impacts mitigated). GST/VAT is included. Normally set to 0% (if quoted cost is levelized). Major Maintenance Reserve Account (MMRA). Funded annually for N-1 years. Override with multi-interval is possible. Calculated in Pre-COD Finance Cost Sheet. Country specific (e.g. UAE 5%). Could be 0% if project is exempted. Weighted Average based on energy source combination & estimated plant capacity factor per annum. GST/VAT is included. Normally set to 0% (quoted cost is levelized). Based on selected electrolyzer technology. Package includes installation. includes plant buildings and associated facilities Engineering, Procurement & Construction Management . H2 Production Project Developer Costs and Advisory Services Costs. Country specific (e.g. UAE 5%). Could be 0% if project is exempted. Set to zero if H2 plant is co-located with RE Solar/Wind/Other plant. Package includes installation & connection to HV line. Package incl. consumables for testing & commissioning energy/water/etc., & min. fill up of delivery infra pipeline/storage, & plant min. mandatory spare par For Info. NOTES FILL IN ADDITIONAL NOTES WHERE NECESSARY Variable period selection function up to 40 years is possible. Override is selectable for 20/30/40 years. For Info. For Info. Provide plant concept design schematic diagram with attributes/specs for each process package. Default 70%. Default 5%. Default 10% Package includes installation. Package includes installation. Green-Hydrogen-Model-LCOH-rev-5-fm211204-draft-1-30yrs-1GWe-70pcCF-1.8cent-OPT-R3 Inputs-Form-Guide © 2020 Fadi Maalouf Version: 5 Date: 4/12/2021 Page 5 of 17
6.
Toolkit Pre-COD Finance Cost Inputs
(Fill in white background cells only) Construction Period (Months) 18.0 CAPEX Credit Period (Months) 0.0 Equity Bridge Loan Interest Rate (p.a.) 3.75% Debt Interest Rate During Construction (p.a.) 3.75% EBL Commitment Fee as % of Debt (%) 0.30% EBL Upfront Fee as % of Debt (%) 1.20% Sr. Debt Commitment Fee as % of Debt (%) 0.30% Sr. Debt Upfront Fee as % of Debt (%) 1.20% Drawdown Selection: Uniform or Custom? Custom Custom Drawdown Month 1 (%) 10.00% Equity Percentage 25.00% Debt Percentage 75.00% MONTH →→→→ →→→→ →→→→ →→→→ →→→→ →→→→ 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Construction Period Flag 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Operations Period Flag 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Monthly Expenditure as % of CAPEX (end of month) Custom 10.00% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Cumulative Total Expenditure as % of CAPEX 10.00% 15.29% 20.59% 25.88% 31.18% 36.47% 41.76% 47.06% 52.35% 57.65% 62.94% 68.24% 73.53% 78.82% 84.12% 89.41% 94.71% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% EBL Drawdown as % of CAPEX 10.00% 5.29% 5.29% 4.41% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Cumulative Total EBL Drawdown as % of CAPEX 10.00% 15.29% 20.59% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% Debt Drawdown as % of CAPEX 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.88% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Cumulative Total Debt Drawdown as % of CAPEX 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.88% 6.18% 11.47% 16.76% 22.06% 27.35% 32.65% 37.94% 43.24% 48.53% 53.82% 59.12% 64.41% 69.71% 75.00% 75.00% 75.00% 75.00% 75.00% 75.00% 75.00% 75.00% EBL Interest Rate (Monthly) 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% Debt Interest Rate (Monthly) 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% Applicable Interest Periods (Month) 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Applicable EBL Interest 5.31% 5.00% 4.69% 4.38% 4.06% 3.75% 3.44% 3.13% 2.81% 2.50% 2.19% 1.88% 1.56% 1.25% 0.94% 0.63% 0.31% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% EBL Interest Amount as % of CAPEX 0.53% 0.26% 0.25% 0.19% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Applicable Debt Interest 5.31% 5.00% 4.69% 4.38% 4.06% 3.75% 3.44% 3.13% 2.81% 2.50% 2.19% 1.88% 1.56% 1.25% 0.94% 0.63% 0.31% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Debt Interest Amount as % of CAPEX 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.22% 0.20% 0.18% 0.17% 0.15% 0.13% 0.12% 0.10% 0.08% 0.07% 0.05% 0.03% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Total EBL Interest Amount as % of CAPEX 1.2371% Total Debt Interest Amount as % of CAPEX 1.5441% EBL Commitment Fee as % of Debt (%) 0.30% EBL Upfront Fee as % of Debt (%) 1.20% Sr. Debt Commitment Fee as % of Debt (%) 0.30% Sr. Debt Upfront Fee as % of Debt (%) 1.20% Total Commitment Fees Amount as % of CAPEX 0.30% 0.1696% Total Upfront Fees Amount as % of CAPEX 1.20% 1.2675% Pre-COD Finance Cost as % of CAPEX (baseline) 4.2184% Construction Delay Scenario Analysis EBL Interest Rate During Construction Delay (p.a.) 3.75% Debt Interest Rate During Construction Delay (p.a.) 3.75% Developer Monthly Direct Cost as % of CAPEX 0.15% Delay Penalties (N.B. risk transferred to contractor account) 0.00 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0.0000% 0.0781% 0.1563% 0.2344% 0.3125% 0.3906% 0.4688% 0.0000% 0.2344% 0.4688% 0.7031% 0.9375% 1.1719% 1.4063% 0.0000% 0.0005% 0.0010% 0.0015% 0.0021% 0.0026% 0.0031% 0.0000% 0.0038% 0.0075% 0.0113% 0.0150% 0.0188% 0.0225% 0.0000% 0.1500% 0.3000% 0.4500% 0.6000% 0.7500% 0.9000% 0.0000% 0.4668% 0.9335% 1.4003% 1.8671% 2.3338% 2.8006% 4.2184% 4.6852% 5.1519% 5.6187% 6.0854% 6.5522% 7.0190% Drawdown Schedule MONTH →→→→ →→→→ →→→→ →→→→ →→→→ →→→→ 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Construction Period Flag 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Operations Period Flag 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SUM Check Uniform Drawdown 100.00% 5.56% 5.56% 5.56% 5.56% 5.56% 5.56% 5.56% 5.56% 5.56% 5.56% 5.56% 5.56% 5.56% 5.56% 5.56% 5.56% 5.56% 5.56% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Custom Drawdown 100.00% 10.00% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Drawdown Selection: Uniform or Custom? Custom Applied Drawdown Schedule Custom 10.00% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 5.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Total Delay Cost as % of CAPEX Total Pre-COD Finance Cost as % of CAPEX with Delay Construction Delay (Months) Change in EBL Interest Amount % of CAPEX Change in Debt Interest Amount as % of CAPEX Change in Total Commitment Fees as % of CAPEX Change in Total Upfront Fee as % of CAPEX Developer Monthly Direct Cost as % of CAPEX 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00% 120.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Cumulative Expenditure Monthly Expenditure as % of CAPEX Month CAPEX Cashflow Monthly Expenditure as % of CAPEX (end of month) EBL Drawdown as % of CAPEX Debt Drawdown as % of CAPEX Cumulative Total Expenditure as % of CAPEX Cumulative Total EBL Drawdown as % of CAPEX Cumulative Total Debt Drawdown as % of CAPEX 0.0000% 0.4668% 0.9335% 1.4003% 1.8671% 2.3338% 2.8006% y = 0.0047x - 0.0047 R² = 1 0.0000% 0.5000% 1.0000% 1.5000% 2.0000% 2.5000% 3.0000% 3.5000% 4.0000% 4.5000% 5.0000% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Construction Delay (Months) Total Construction Delay Cost as % of CAPEX Total Delay Cost as % of CAPEX Change in EBL Interest Amount % of CAPEX Change in Debt Interest Amount as % of CAPEX Change in Total Commitment Fees as % of CAPEX Change in Total Upfront Fee as % of CAPEX Developer Monthly Direct Cost as % of CAPEX Linear (Total Delay Cost as % of CAPEX) 4.2184% 4.6852% 5.1519% 5.6187% 6.0854% 6.5522% 7.0190% 0.0000% 1.0000% 2.0000% 3.0000% 4.0000% 5.0000% 6.0000% 7.0000% 8.0000% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Construction Delay (Months) Total Pre-COD Finance Cost as % of CAPEX w/ Construction Delay Total Pre-COD Finance Cost as % of CAPEX with Delay Green-Hydrogen-Model-LCOH-rev-5-fm211204-draft-1-30yrs-1GWe-70pcCF-1.8cent-OPT-R3 Pre-COD-Finance-Cost © 2020 Fadi Maalouf Version: 25D Date: 25/2/2020 Page 6 of 17
7.
Toolkit Pre-COD Finance Cost
Calculations MONTH →→→→ →→→→ →→→→ →→→→ →→→→ →→→→ 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Construction Period Flag 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Operations Period Flag 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBL Drawdown Flag 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sr. Debt Drawdown Flag 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBL Commitment Fee Amount Drawdown as % CAPEX (%) 0.0041% 0.0028% 0.0015% 0.0004% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% Cumulative EBL Commitment Fee Amount Drawdown as % CAPEX (%) 0.0041% 0.0069% 0.0084% 0.0088% 0.0088% 0.0088% 0.0088% 0.0088% 0.0088% 0.0088% 0.0088% 0.0088% 0.0088% 0.0088% 0.0088% 0.0088% 0.0088% 0.0088% 0.0088% 0.0088% 0.0088% 0.0088% 0.0088% 0.0088% 0.0088% Applicable Interest Periods (Month) 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Applicable EBL Interest for Commitment Fee Drawdown (%) 5.31% 5.00% 4.69% 4.38% 4.06% 3.75% 3.44% 3.13% 2.81% 2.50% 2.19% 1.88% 1.56% 1.25% 0.94% 0.63% 0.31% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% EBL Interest Amount for Commitment Fee Drawdown as % of CAPEX (%) 0.000219% 0.000140% 0.000069% 0.000016% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% Cumulative EBL Interest Amount for Commitment Fee Drawdown as % of CAPEX (%) 0.0002% 0.0004% 0.0004% 0.0004% 0.0004% 0.0004% 0.0004% 0.0004% 0.0004% 0.0004% 0.0004% 0.0004% 0.0004% 0.0004% 0.0004% 0.0004% 0.0004% 0.0004% 0.0004% 0.0004% 0.0004% 0.0004% 0.0004% 0.0004% 0.0004% Total EBL Commitment Fees Amount as % of CAPEX (%) 0.004344% 0.002942% 0.001547% 0.000391% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% Cumulative Total EBL Commitment Fees Amount as % of CAPEX (%) 0.004344% 0.007286% 0.008833% 0.009224% 0.009224% 0.009224% 0.009224% 0.009224% 0.009224% 0.009224% 0.009224% 0.009224% 0.009224% 0.009224% 0.009224% 0.009224% 0.009224% 0.009224% 0.009224% 0.009224% 0.009224% 0.009224% 0.009224% 0.009224% 0.009224% Sr. Debt Commitment Fee Amount Drawdown as % CAPEX (%) 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0197% 0.0183% 0.0170% 0.0157% 0.0144% 0.0130% 0.0117% 0.0104% 0.0091% 0.0077% 0.0064% 0.0051% 0.0038% 0.0024% 0.0011% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% Cumulative Sr. Debt Commitment Fee Amount Drawdown as % CAPEX (%) 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0197% 0.0380% 0.0550% 0.0707% 0.0850% 0.0981% 0.1098% 0.1202% 0.1292% 0.1370% 0.1434% 0.1485% 0.1523% 0.1547% 0.1558% 0.1558% 0.1558% 0.1558% 0.1558% 0.1558% 0.1558% 0.1558% Applicable Interest Periods (Month) 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Applicable Sr. Debt Interest for Commitment Fee Drawdown (%) 5.31% 5.00% 4.69% 4.38% 4.06% 3.75% 3.44% 3.13% 2.81% 2.50% 2.19% 1.88% 1.56% 1.25% 0.94% 0.63% 0.31% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Sr. Debt Interest Amount for Commitment Fee Drawdown as % of CAPEX (%) 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000860% 0.000745% 0.000638% 0.000539% 0.000449% 0.000367% 0.000293% 0.000227% 0.000170% 0.000121% 0.000080% 0.000048% 0.000024% 0.000008% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% Cumulative Sr. Debt Interest Amount for Commitment Fee Drawdown as % of CAPEX (%) 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0009% 0.0016% 0.0022% 0.0028% 0.0032% 0.0036% 0.0039% 0.0041% 0.0043% 0.0044% 0.0045% 0.0045% 0.0046% 0.0046% 0.0046% 0.0046% 0.0046% 0.0046% 0.0046% 0.0046% 0.0046% 0.0046% Total Sr. Debt Commitment Fees Amount as % of CAPEX (%) 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.020514% 0.019076% 0.017645% 0.016223% 0.014809% 0.013403% 0.012006% 0.010617% 0.009236% 0.007864% 0.006499% 0.005143% 0.003796% 0.002456% 0.001125% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% Cumulative Total Sr. Debt Commitment Fees Amount as % of CAPEX (%) 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.020514% 0.039590% 0.057235% 0.073458% 0.088267% 0.101670% 0.113676% 0.124293% 0.133530% 0.141393% 0.147893% 0.153036% 0.156832% 0.159288% 0.160413% 0.160413% 0.160413% 0.160413% 0.160413% 0.160413% 0.160413% 0.160413% Total Commitment Fees Amount as % of CAPEX (%) 0.004344% 0.002942% 0.001547% 0.020906% 0.019076% 0.017645% 0.016223% 0.014809% 0.013403% 0.012006% 0.010617% 0.009236% 0.007864% 0.006499% 0.005143% 0.003796% 0.002456% 0.001125% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% Cumulative Total Commitment Fees Amount as % of CAPEX (%) 0.004344% 0.007286% 0.008833% 0.029739% 0.048814% 0.066459% 0.082682% 0.097491% 0.110895% 0.122901% 0.133518% 0.142754% 0.150618% 0.157117% 0.162260% 0.166056% 0.168512% 0.169637% 0.169637% 0.169637% 0.169637% 0.169637% 0.169637% 0.169637% 0.169637% Pre-COD Finance Cost Breakdown EBL Commitment Fee Amount Drawdown as % CAPEX (%) 0.008779% EBL Interest Amount for Commitment Fee Drawdown as % of CAPEX (%) 0.000445% Sr. Debt Commitment Fee Amount Drawdown as % CAPEX (%) 0.155846% Sr. Debt Interest Amount for Commitment Fee Drawdown as % of CAPEX (%) 0.004567% EBL Upront Fee Amount Drawdown as % CAPEX (%) 0.30000% EBL Interest Amount for Upfront Fee Drawdown as % of CAPEX (%) 0.01688% Sr. Debt Upfront Fee Amount Drawdown as % CAPEX (%) 0.90000% Sr. Debt Interest Amount for Upfront Fee Drawdown as % of CAPEX (%) 0.05063% EBL Interest Amount on Drawn CAPEX as % of CAPEX (%) 1.23713% Sr. Debt Interest Amount on Drawn CAPEX as % of CAPEX (%) 1.54412% Total Pre-COD Finance Cost as % of CAPEX (%) 4.218387% Pre-COD Finance Cost Sensitivity Analysis Pre-COD Finance Cost Construction Period (Months) 4.22% Baseline 6 2.00% 9 2.54% 12 3.11% 15 3.65% 18 4.22% 21 4.76% 24 5.33% 27 5.88% 30 6.44% 33 6.99% 36 7.56% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% EBL Commitment Fee Amount Drawdown as % CAPEX (%) EBL Interest Amount for Commitment Fee Drawdown as % of CAPEX… Sr. Debt Commitment Fee Amount Drawdown as % CAPEX (%) Sr. Debt Interest Amount for Commitment Fee Drawdown as % of… EBL Upront Fee Amount Drawdown as % CAPEX (%) EBL Interest Amount for Upfront Fee Drawdown as % of CAPEX (%) Sr. Debt Upfront Fee Amount Drawdown as % CAPEX (%) Sr. Debt Interest Amount for Upfront Fee Drawdown as % of CAPEX (%) EBL Interest Amount on Drawn CAPEX as % of CAPEX (%) Sr. Debt Interest Amount on Drawn CAPEX as % of CAPEX (%) Total Pre-COD Finance Cost as % of CAPEX (%) Pre-COD Finance Cost Breakdown as % of CAPEX 0.21% 0.01% 3.69% 0.11% 7.11% 0.40% 21.34% 1.20% 29.33% 36.60% Pre-COD Finance Cost Breakdown by Component Contribution % EBL Commitment Fee Amount Drawdown as % CAPEX (%) EBL Interest Amount for Commitment Fee Drawdown as % of CAPEX (%) Sr. Debt Commitment Fee Amount Drawdown as % CAPEX (%) Sr. Debt Interest Amount for Commitment Fee Drawdown as % of CAPEX (%) EBL Upront Fee Amount Drawdown as % CAPEX (%) EBL Interest Amount for Upfront Fee Drawdown as % of CAPEX (%) Sr. Debt Upfront Fee Amount Drawdown as % CAPEX (%) Sr. Debt Interest Amount for Upfront Fee Drawdown as % of CAPEX (%) EBL Interest Amount on Drawn CAPEX as % of CAPEX (%) Sr. Debt Interest Amount on Drawn CAPEX as % of CAPEX (%) 2.00% 2.54% 3.11% 3.65% 4.22% 4.76% 5.33% 5.88% 6.44% 6.99% 7.56% y = 0.0056x + 0.0143 R² = 1 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 Pre-COD Finance Cost (%) Pre-COD Finance Cost Sensitivity Construction Period (Months) Linear (Construction Period (Months)) Green-Hydrogen-Model-LCOH-rev-5-fm211204-draft-1-30yrs-1GWe-70pcCF-1.8cent-OPT-R3 Pre-COD-Finance-Cost © 2020 Fadi Maalouf Version: 25D Date: 25/2/2020 Page 7 of 17
8.
Toolkit Green Hydrogen from
RE Powered Electrolysis Plant - LCOH PRE-FEASIBILITY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS - BASELINE CASE INPUTS Fill In Inputs - White Background Cells Only General LCOH Component Component $/Kg H2 Component Percentage Analysis Period (years) 30 Capex Component 0.296328 20.26% Reference Year for Technology & Costs (year) 2025 Opex Component - Energy Cost 0.961560 65.73% Electrolyzer Technology ALK Opex Component - General Fixed O&M 0.102475 7.00% H2 Plant Economies of Scale (MWe) 1000 Opex Component - Water Cost 0.030000 2.05% Finance Structure Opex Component - Stack Replacement Cost 0.070913 4.85% Debt Percentage 75.00% Opex Component - Leased Land Cost 0.001663 0.11% Equity Percentage 25.00% Opex Component - Decom. & Res. Cost 0.000000 0.00% Debt Interest Rate 3.75% Total Percentage Check Return on Equity Rate 7.00% 100.00% WACC / Nominal Discount Rate 4.56% LCOH ($/Kg H2) $1.462938 Capital Expenditure LCOH (AED/Kg H2) 5.376297 Electrolyzer Stack Package Cost ($/kWe DC) $270.00 Electrolyzer Stack Package Cost ($) $270,000,000.00 Model Integrity OK? (True/False) TRUE Electrical & Mechanical BoP Packages Cost ($/kWe DC) $180.00 Electrical & Mechanical BoP Packages Cost ($) $180,000,000.00 Overall Civil & Infrastructure Package Cost ($/kWe DC) $40.00 Overall Civil & Infrastructure Package Cost ($) $40,000,000.00 HV Substation Package Cost ($/kWe DC) $0.00 HV Substation Package Cost ($) $0.00 Plant Start-up Package Cost ($/kWe DC) $8.00 Plant Start-up Package Cost ($) $8,000,000.00 EPCM Service Package Cost ($/kWe DC) $35.00 EPCM Service Package Cost ($) $35,000,000.00 EPC Cost ($/kWe DC) $533.00 EPC Cost ($) $533,000,000.00 Project Developer Contingencies Allocation as % of EPC Cost (%) 1.50% Project Developer Contingencies Allocation Cost ($/kWe DC) $8.00 Project Developer Contingencies Allocation Cost ($) $7,995,000.00 Project Development Cost ($/kWe DC) $12.00 Project Development Cost ($) $12,000,000.00 Total CAPEX Cost ($/kWe DC) $553.00 Total CAPEX Cost ($) $552,995,000.00 Taxes GST/VAT Rate During Construction (%) 0.00% Taxes GST/VAT ($/kWe DC) $0.00 Taxes GST/VAT ($) $0.00 Finance Cost During Construction as % of Total CAPEX w/ Taxes (%) 4.22% Finance Cost During Construction ($/kWe DC) $23.33 Finance Cost During Construction ($) $23,327,469.80 Total Overnight CAPEX Cost w/ Taxes ($/kWe DC) $576.32 Total Overnight CAPEX Cost w/ Taxes ($) $576,322,469.80 O&M Expenditure Taxes GST/VAT Rate During Operation (%) 0.00% Weighted Avg. (PV &/or Wind &/or Other) Energy Unit Rate Net Cost ($/kWhe AC) $0.018000 Energy Net Cost Annual Escalation Yr2+ (%) 0.00% Energy Consumption Yr1 (kWhe AC/yr) 6,593,424,752.09 Energy Consumption Net Cost Yr1 ($/yr) $118,681,645.54 General Fixed O&M Cost as % of EPC Cost (%) 2.00% General Fixed O&M Annual Escalation Yr2+ (%) 1.25% General Fixed O&M Cost Yr1 w/ Taxes GST/VAT Yr1 ($/yr) $10,660,000.00 RE Powered RO Desalinated Water Unit Rate Net Cost ($/m3 ) $3.000000 Water Net Cost Annual Escalation Yr2+ (%) 0.00% Specific Water Consumption (m3 /Kg H2) 0.010000 Water Consumption Yr1 (m3 /yr) 1,234,261.47 Water Consumption Net Cost Yr1 ($/yr) $3,702,784.40 MMRA - Electrolyzer Stack Replacement Cost as % of Initial EPC Cost (%) 20.00% MMRA - Electrolyzer Stack Replacement Year N, multi-interval (yr) 11 MMRA - Electrolyzer Stack Replacement Cost Allocation Yr1 to YrN-1, multi-interval ($/yr) $10,660,000.00 H2 Electrolyzer Plant Leased Land Area (m2 ) 200,000.00 H2 Electrolyzer Plant Leased Land Cost ($/m2 /yr) $1.0000 H2 Electrolyzer Plant Leased Land Cost ($/yr) $200,000.00 System H2 Electrolyzer Plant Effective Capacity (kWe DC) 1,000,000.00 H2 Electrolyzer Plant Total Specific Energy Consumption Yr1 (kWhe AC/Kg H2) 53.4200 H2 Electrolyzer Stack Specific Energy Consumption Yr1 (kWhe AC/Kg H2) 49.9289 H2 Balance of Plant (BoP) Specific Energy Consumption Yr1 (kWhe AC/Kg H2) 3.4911 H2 Electrolyzer Stack AC/DC Rectifier Efficiency (%) 98.40% H2 Electrolyzer Stack Specific Energy Consumption Yr1 (kWhe DC/Kg H2) 49.1300 H2 Electrolyzer Plant Specific Production Yr1 (Kg H2/kWhe DC) 0.0204 H2 Electrolyzer Plant Capacity Factor per Year (%) 70.00% H2 Electrolyzer Plant Full Load Equivalent Operating Hours per Year (hr) 6,132.00 H2 Electrolyzer Plant Gross Annual Production Yr1 (Kg H2) 124,811,724.00 H2 Electrolyzer Plant Annual Production Degradation Yr1 (%/1000 hrs) 0.10000% H2 Electrolyzer Plant Annual Production Degradation Yr2+ (%/1000 hrs) 0.10000% Apply Degradation to H2 Electrolyzer Plant Annual Production ? (Yes/No) Yes H2 Electrolyzer Plant Annual Production Degradation Yr1 (%/year) 0.61320% H2 Electrolyzer Plant Annual Production Degradation Yr2+ (%/year) 0.61320% H2 Electrolyzer Plant Annual Availability (%) 99.50% H2 Electrolyzer Plant Net Annual Production Yr1 (Kg H2) 123,426,146.61 Residual Value at End of Service Life Net of Decommissioning Cost & Residual Value, as % of EPC at EoL 0.00% OUTPUTS - 30 Years 0.296328 20.26% 0.961560 65.73% 0.102475 7.00% 0.030000 2.05% 0.070913 4.85% 0.001663 0.11% 0.000000 0.00% LCOH Breakdown $/Kg H2 Capex Component Opex Component - Energy Cost Opex Component - General Fixed O&M Opex Component - Water Cost Opex Component - Stack Replacement Cost Opex Component - Leased Land Cost Opex Component - Decom. & Res. Cost $270.00 46.85% $180.00 31.23% $40.00 6.94% $0.00 0.00% $8.00 1.39% $35.00 6.07% $8.00 1.39% $12.00 2.08% $0.00 0.00% $23.33 4.05% CAPEX Breakdown $/kWe DC Electrolyzer Stack Package Cost ($/kWe DC) Electrical & Mechanical BoP Packages Cost ($/kWe DC) Overall Civil & Infrastructure Package Cost ($/kWe DC) HV Substation Package Cost ($/kWe DC) Plant Start-up Package Cost ($/kWe DC) EPCM Service Package Cost ($/kWe DC) Project Developer Contingencies Allocation Cost ($/kWe DC) Project Development Cost ($/kWe DC) Taxes GST/VAT ($/kWe DC) Finance Cost During Construction ($/kWe DC) Green-Hydrogen-Model-LCOH-rev-5-fm211204-draft-1-30yrs-1GWe-70pcCF-1.8cent-OPT-R3 Summary-Inputs-Outputs © 2020 Fadi Maalouf Version: 5 Date: 4/12/2021 Page 8 of 17
9.
Toolkit PRO-FORMA CASHFLOW 30
Years Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 Construction Period Flag 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Operations Period Flag 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NPV Calc. H2 Electrolyzer Plant Gross Annual Output - (Kg H2) $1,548,793,823.27 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 124,811,724.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 H2 Electrolyzer Plant Net Annual Output - w/ Lin. Deg. & Avail. Losses - (Kg H2) $1,944,880,477.09 123,426,146.61 122,664,627.85 121,903,109.09 121,141,590.32 120,380,071.56 119,618,552.79 118,857,034.03 118,095,515.26 117,333,996.50 116,572,477.74 123,426,146.61 122,664,627.85 121,903,109.09 121,141,590.32 120,380,071.56 119,618,552.79 118,857,034.03 118,095,515.26 117,333,996.50 116,572,477.74 123,426,146.61 122,664,627.85 121,903,109.09 121,141,590.32 120,380,071.56 119,618,552.79 118,857,034.03 118,095,515.26 117,333,996.50 116,572,477.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Electrolyzer Stack Cycle Number 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Electrolyzer Stack Replacement Flag 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Operating Expenses Energy Consumption Net Cost ($/yr) $1,870,119,271.55 118,681,645.54 117,949,399.55 117,217,153.57 116,484,907.59 115,752,661.61 115,020,415.62 114,288,169.64 113,555,923.66 112,823,677.68 112,091,431.69 118,681,645.54 117,949,399.55 117,217,153.57 116,484,907.59 115,752,661.61 115,020,415.62 114,288,169.64 113,555,923.66 112,823,677.68 112,091,431.69 118,681,645.54 117,949,399.55 117,217,153.57 116,484,907.59 115,752,661.61 115,020,415.62 114,288,169.64 113,555,923.66 112,823,677.68 112,091,431.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 General Fixed O&M Cost Yr1 w/ Taxes GST/VAT ($/yr) $199,300,760.72 10,660,000.00 10,793,250.00 10,928,165.63 11,064,767.70 11,203,077.29 11,343,115.76 11,484,904.70 11,628,466.01 11,773,821.84 11,920,994.61 12,070,007.04 12,220,882.13 12,373,643.16 12,528,313.70 12,684,917.62 12,843,479.09 13,004,022.58 13,166,572.86 13,331,155.02 13,497,794.46 13,666,516.89 13,837,348.35 14,010,315.21 14,185,444.15 14,362,762.20 14,542,296.72 14,724,075.43 14,908,126.38 15,094,477.96 15,283,158.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Water Consumption Net Cost ($/yr) $58,346,414.31 3,702,784.40 3,679,938.84 3,657,093.27 3,634,247.71 3,611,402.15 3,588,556.58 3,565,711.02 3,542,865.46 3,520,019.90 3,497,174.33 3,702,784.40 3,679,938.84 3,657,093.27 3,634,247.71 3,611,402.15 3,588,556.58 3,565,711.02 3,542,865.46 3,520,019.90 3,497,174.33 3,702,784.40 3,679,938.84 3,657,093.27 3,634,247.71 3,611,402.15 3,588,556.58 3,565,711.02 3,542,865.46 3,520,019.90 3,497,174.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 MMRA - Electrolyzer Stack Replacement Cost Allocation Yr1 to YrN-1, multi-interval ($/yr) $137,916,678.59 10,660,000.00 10,660,000.00 10,660,000.00 10,660,000.00 10,660,000.00 10,660,000.00 10,660,000.00 10,660,000.00 10,660,000.00 10,660,000.00 10,660,000.00 10,660,000.00 10,660,000.00 10,660,000.00 10,660,000.00 10,660,000.00 10,660,000.00 10,660,000.00 10,660,000.00 10,660,000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 [Spare] $0.00 [Spare] $0.00 [Spare] $0.00 [Spare] $0.00 [Spare] $0.00 H2 Electrolyzer Plant Leased Land Cost ($/yr) $3,233,957.37 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total O&M Expenses $2,268,917,082.55 143,904,429.94 143,282,588.39 142,662,412.47 142,043,922.99 141,427,141.04 140,812,087.97 140,198,785.37 139,587,255.13 138,977,519.41 138,369,600.64 145,314,436.98 144,710,220.52 144,107,890.00 143,507,469.00 142,908,981.37 142,312,451.30 141,717,903.24 141,125,361.98 140,534,852.59 139,946,400.48 136,250,946.83 135,666,686.74 135,084,562.05 134,504,599.44 133,926,825.95 133,351,268.93 132,777,956.10 132,206,915.49 131,638,175.53 131,071,764.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Residual Value $0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total Operating Expenses $2,268,917,082.55 143,904,429.94 143,282,588.39 142,662,412.47 142,043,922.99 141,427,141.04 140,812,087.97 140,198,785.37 139,587,255.13 138,977,519.41 138,369,600.64 145,314,436.98 144,710,220.52 144,107,890.00 143,507,469.00 142,908,981.37 142,312,451.30 141,717,903.24 141,125,361.98 140,534,852.59 139,946,400.48 136,250,946.83 135,666,686.74 135,084,562.05 134,504,599.44 133,926,825.95 133,351,268.93 132,777,956.10 132,206,915.49 131,638,175.53 131,071,764.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cost Flow ($2,268,917,082.55) -576,322,469.80 -143,904,429.94 -143,282,588.39 -142,662,412.47 -142,043,922.99 -141,427,141.04 -140,812,087.97 -140,198,785.37 -139,587,255.13 -138,977,519.41 -138,369,600.64 -145,314,436.98 -144,710,220.52 -144,107,890.00 -143,507,469.00 -142,908,981.37 -142,312,451.30 -141,717,903.24 -141,125,361.98 -140,534,852.59 -139,946,400.48 -136,250,946.83 -135,666,686.74 -135,084,562.05 -134,504,599.44 -133,926,825.95 -133,351,268.93 -132,777,956.10 -132,206,915.49 -131,638,175.53 -131,071,764.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Revenue (check @ LCOH) 180,564,799.88 179,450,745.14 178,336,690.41 177,222,635.67 176,108,580.94 174,994,526.20 173,880,471.46 172,766,416.73 171,652,361.99 170,538,307.25 180,564,799.88 179,450,745.14 178,336,690.41 177,222,635.67 176,108,580.94 174,994,526.20 173,880,471.46 172,766,416.73 171,652,361.99 170,538,307.25 180,564,799.88 179,450,745.14 178,336,690.41 177,222,635.67 176,108,580.94 174,994,526.20 173,880,471.46 172,766,416.73 171,652,361.99 170,538,307.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Operations cashflow -576,322,469.80 36,660,369.95 36,168,156.75 35,674,277.94 35,178,712.68 34,681,439.89 34,182,438.23 33,681,686.10 33,179,161.60 32,674,842.58 32,168,706.62 35,250,362.90 34,740,524.62 34,228,800.40 33,715,166.67 33,199,599.56 32,682,074.90 32,162,568.22 31,641,054.75 31,117,509.40 30,591,906.77 44,313,853.06 43,784,058.40 43,252,128.36 42,718,036.23 42,181,754.98 41,643,257.27 41,102,515.37 40,559,501.23 40,014,186.46 39,466,542.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Calculated IRR (unleveraged) 4.56% Equity -144,080,617.45 WACC 4.56% Logic & Calc Check: WACC = IRR (Unleveraged). True/False TRUE 0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 Annual Output (Kg H 2 ) Year 40 Years - Annual Output (Kg H2) H2 Electrolyzer Plant Net Annual Output - w/ Lin. Deg. & Avail. Losses - (Kg H2) 0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 Operating Expenses ($) Year 40 Years - Operating Expenses ($) Energy Consumption Net Cost ($/yr) General Fixed O&M Cost Yr1 w/ Taxes GST/VAT ($/yr) Water Consumption Net Cost ($/yr) MMRA - Electrolyzer Stack Replacement Cost Allocation Yr1 to YrN-1, multi-interval ($/yr) H2 Electrolyzer Plant Leased Land Cost ($/yr) Residual Value Total O&M Expenses Total Operating Expenses Green-Hydrogen-Model-LCOH-rev-5-fm211204-draft-1-30yrs-1GWe-70pcCF-1.8cent-OPT-R3 Cashflow © 2020 Fadi Maalouf Version: 5 Date: 4/12/2021 Page 9 of 17
10.
Toolkit LCOH 1D Sensitivity
Analysis Parameter Variance Stack Pack Cost ($/kWe DC) LCOH LCOH Variance BoP Pack Cost ($/kWe DC) LCOH LCOH Variance Civil/Infra Pack Cost ($/kWe DC) LCOH LCOH Variance WACC (%) LCOH LCOH Variance Energy Cost ($/kWhe AC) LCOH LCOH Variance Fixed O&M Cost (% of EPC Cost) LCOH LCOH Variance Total Sp. Energy Consump. (kWhe AC/Kg H2) LCOH LCOH Variance Capacity Factor (%) LCOH LCOH Variance 1.4629 1.4629 1.4629 1.4629 1.4629 1.4629 1.4629 1.4629 -50% $135.00 1.3456 -8.02% $90.00 1.3847 -5.35% $20.00 1.4456 -1.19% 2.28% 1.3859 -5.26% $0.009000 0.9822 -32.86% 1.00% 1.4117 -3.50% 26.71 0.7465 -48.97% 35.00% 1.9192 31.19% -45% $148.50 1.3573 -7.22% $99.00 1.3925 -4.81% $22.00 1.4473 -1.07% 2.51% 1.3932 -4.77% $0.009900 1.0302 -29.58% 1.10% 1.4168 -3.15% 29.38 0.8181 -44.08% 38.50% 1.8363 25.52% -40% $162.00 1.3691 -6.42% $108.00 1.4004 -4.28% $24.00 1.4490 -0.95% 2.74% 1.4006 -4.26% $0.010800 1.0783 -26.29% 1.20% 1.4219 -2.80% 32.05 0.8898 -39.18% 42.00% 1.7671 20.79% -35% $175.50 1.3808 -5.61% $117.00 1.4082 -3.74% $26.00 1.4508 -0.83% 2.97% 1.4080 -3.75% $0.011700 1.1264 -23.00% 1.30% 1.4271 -2.45% 34.72 0.9614 -34.28% 45.50% 1.7086 16.79% -30% $189.00 1.3925 -4.81% $126.00 1.4160 -3.21% $28.00 1.4525 -0.71% 3.19% 1.4156 -3.24% $0.012600 1.1745 -19.72% 1.40% 1.4322 -2.10% 37.39 1.0331 -29.38% 49.00% 1.6585 13.36% -25% $202.50 1.4043 -4.01% $135.00 1.4238 -2.67% $30.00 1.4542 -0.59% 3.42% 1.4232 -2.71% $0.013500 1.2225 -16.43% 1.50% 1.4373 -1.75% 40.07 1.1047 -24.49% 52.50% 1.6150 10.39% -20% $216.00 1.4160 -3.21% $144.00 1.4316 -2.14% $32.00 1.4560 -0.48% 3.65% 1.4310 -2.18% $0.014400 1.2706 -13.15% 1.60% 1.4424 -1.40% 42.74 1.1764 -19.59% 56.00% 1.5770 7.80% -15% $229.50 1.4277 -2.41% $153.00 1.4395 -1.60% $34.00 1.4577 -0.36% 3.88% 1.4388 -1.65% $0.015300 1.3187 -9.86% 1.70% 1.4476 -1.05% 45.41 1.2480 -14.69% 59.50% 1.5434 5.50% -10% $243.00 1.4395 -1.60% $162.00 1.4473 -1.07% $36.00 1.4595 -0.24% 4.11% 1.4468 -1.10% $0.016200 1.3668 -6.57% 1.80% 1.4527 -0.70% 48.08 1.3196 -9.79% 63.00% 1.5136 3.46% -5% $256.50 1.4512 -0.80% $171.00 1.4551 -0.53% $38.00 1.4612 -0.12% 4.33% 1.4548 -0.56% $0.017100 1.4149 -3.29% 1.90% 1.4578 -0.35% 50.75 1.3913 -4.90% 66.50% 1.4869 1.64% 0% $270.00 1.4629 0.00% $180.00 1.4629 0.00% $40.00 1.4629 0.00% 4.56% 1.4629 0.00% $0.018000 1.4629 0.00% 2.00% 1.4629 0.00% 53.42 1.4629 0.00% 70.00% 1.4629 0.00% 5% $283.50 1.4747 0.80% $189.00 1.4708 0.53% $42.00 1.4647 0.12% 4.79% 1.4712 0.56% $0.018900 1.5110 3.29% 2.10% 1.4681 0.35% 56.09 1.5346 4.90% 73.50% 1.4412 -1.48% 10% $297.00 1.4864 1.60% $198.00 1.4786 1.07% $44.00 1.4664 0.24% 5.02% 1.4795 1.13% $0.019800 1.5591 6.57% 2.20% 1.4732 0.70% 58.76 1.6062 9.79% 77.00% 1.4215 -2.83% 15% $310.50 1.4981 2.41% $207.00 1.4864 1.60% $46.00 1.4682 0.36% 5.25% 1.4878 1.70% $0.020700 1.6072 9.86% 2.30% 1.4783 1.05% 61.43 1.6779 14.69% 80.50% 1.4035 -4.07% 20% $324.00 1.5099 3.21% $216.00 1.4942 2.14% $48.00 1.4699 0.48% 5.48% 1.4963 2.28% $0.021600 1.6552 13.15% 2.40% 1.4834 1.40% 64.10 1.7495 19.59% 84.00% 1.3869 -5.19% 25% $337.50 1.5216 4.01% $225.00 1.5021 2.67% $50.00 1.4716 0.59% 5.70% 1.5049 2.87% $0.022500 1.7033 16.43% 2.50% 1.4886 1.75% 66.78 1.8212 24.49% 87.50% 1.3718 -6.23% 30% $351.00 1.5333 4.81% $234.00 1.5099 3.21% $52.00 1.4734 0.71% 5.93% 1.5135 3.46% $0.023400 1.7514 19.72% 2.60% 1.4937 2.10% 69.45 1.8928 29.38% 91.00% 1.3577 -7.19% 35% $364.50 1.5451 5.61% $243.00 1.5177 3.74% $54.00 1.4751 0.83% 6.16% 1.5222 4.05% $0.024300 1.7995 23.00% 2.70% 1.4988 2.45% 72.12 1.9645 34.28% 94.50% 1.3447 -8.08% 40% $378.00 1.5568 6.42% $252.00 1.5255 4.28% $56.00 1.4768 0.95% 6.39% 1.5310 4.65% $0.025200 1.8476 26.29% 2.80% 1.5039 2.80% 74.79 2.0361 39.18% 98.00% 1.3327 -8.90% 45% $391.50 1.5685 7.22% $261.00 1.5333 4.81% $58.00 1.4786 1.07% 6.62% 1.5398 5.25% $0.026100 1.8956 29.58% 2.90% 1.5091 3.15% 77.46 2.1078 44.08% 100.00% 1.3262 -9.35% 50% $405.00 1.5803 8.02% $270.00 1.5412 5.35% $60.00 1.4803 1.19% 6.84% 1.5487 5.86% $0.027000 1.9437 32.86% 3.00% 1.5142 3.50% 80.13 2.1794 48.97% 100.00% 1.3262 -9.35% -50% -45% -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Stack Pack Cost ($/kWe DC) 1.3456 1.3573 1.3691 1.3808 1.3925 1.4043 1.4160 1.4277 1.4395 1.4512 1.4629 1.4747 1.4864 1.4981 1.5099 1.5216 1.5333 1.5451 1.5568 1.5685 1.5803 BoP Pack Cost ($/kWe DC) 1.3847 1.3925 1.4004 1.4082 1.4160 1.4238 1.4316 1.4395 1.4473 1.4551 1.4629 1.4708 1.4786 1.4864 1.4942 1.5021 1.5099 1.5177 1.5255 1.5333 1.5412 Civil/Infra Pack Cost ($/kWe DC) 1.4456 1.4473 1.4490 1.4508 1.4525 1.4542 1.4560 1.4577 1.4595 1.4612 1.4629 1.4647 1.4664 1.4682 1.4699 1.4716 1.4734 1.4751 1.4768 1.4786 1.4803 WACC (%) 1.3859 1.3932 1.4006 1.4080 1.4156 1.4232 1.4310 1.4388 1.4468 1.4548 1.4629 1.4712 1.4795 1.4878 1.4963 1.5049 1.5135 1.5222 1.5310 1.5398 1.5487 Fixed O&M Cost (% of EPC Cost) 1.4117 1.4168 1.4219 1.4271 1.4322 1.4373 1.4424 1.4476 1.4527 1.4578 1.4629 1.4681 1.4732 1.4783 1.4834 1.4886 1.4937 1.4988 1.5039 1.5091 1.5142 Total Sp. Energy Consump. (kWhe AC/Kg H2) 0.7465 0.8181 0.8898 0.9614 1.0331 1.1047 1.1764 1.2480 1.3196 1.3913 1.4629 1.5346 1.6062 1.6779 1.7495 1.8212 1.8928 1.9645 2.0361 2.1078 2.1794 Energy Cost ($/kWhe AC) 0.9822 1.0302 1.0783 1.1264 1.1745 1.2225 1.2706 1.3187 1.3668 1.4149 1.4629 1.5110 1.5591 1.6072 1.6552 1.7033 1.7514 1.7995 1.8476 1.8956 1.9437 Capacity Factor (%) 1.9192 1.8363 1.7671 1.7086 1.6585 1.6150 1.5770 1.5434 1.5136 1.4869 1.4629 1.4412 1.4215 1.4035 1.3869 1.3718 1.3577 1.3447 1.3327 1.3262 1.3262 y = 0.0117x + 1.3339 y = 0.0078x + 1.3769 y = 0.0017x + 1.4438 y = 0.0082x + 1.3749 y = 0.0051x + 1.4066 y = 0.0716x + 0.6748 y = 0.0481x + 0.9341 y = -7E-05x3 + 0.0039x2 - 0.0821x + 1.9868 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 LCOH $/Kg H 2 Parameter Variance from Baseline Case LCOH 1D Sensitivity Stack Pack Cost ($/kWe DC) BoP Pack Cost ($/kWe DC) Civil/Infra Pack Cost ($/kWe DC) WACC (%) Fixed O&M Cost (% of EPC Cost) Total Sp. Energy Consump. (kWhe AC/Kg H2) Energy Cost ($/kWhe AC) Capacity Factor (%) Linear (Stack Pack Cost ($/kWe DC)) Linear (BoP Pack Cost ($/kWe DC)) -50% -45% -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Stack Pack Cost ($/kWe DC) -8.02% -7.22% -6.42% -5.61% -4.81% -4.01% -3.21% -2.41% -1.60% -0.80% 0.00% 0.80% 1.60% 2.41% 3.21% 4.01% 4.81% 5.61% 6.42% 7.22% 8.02% BoP Pack Cost ($/kWe DC) -5.35% -4.81% -4.28% -3.74% -3.21% -2.67% -2.14% -1.60% -1.07% -0.53% 0.00% 0.53% 1.07% 1.60% 2.14% 2.67% 3.21% 3.74% 4.28% 4.81% 5.35% Civil/Infra Pack Cost ($/kWe DC) -1.19% -1.07% -0.95% -0.83% -0.71% -0.59% -0.48% -0.36% -0.24% -0.12% 0.00% 0.12% 0.24% 0.36% 0.48% 0.59% 0.71% 0.83% 0.95% 1.07% 1.19% WACC (%) -5.26% -4.77% -4.26% -3.75% -3.24% -2.71% -2.18% -1.65% -1.10% -0.56% 0.00% 0.56% 1.13% 1.70% 2.28% 2.87% 3.46% 4.05% 4.65% 5.25% 5.86% Fixed O&M Cost (% of EPC Cost) -3.50% -3.15% -2.80% -2.45% -2.10% -1.75% -1.40% -1.05% -0.70% -0.35% 0.00% 0.35% 0.70% 1.05% 1.40% 1.75% 2.10% 2.45% 2.80% 3.15% 3.50% Total Sp. Energy Consump. (kWhe AC/Kg H2)-48.97% -44.08% -39.18% -34.28% -29.38% -24.49% -19.59% -14.69%-9.79% -4.90% 0.00% 4.90% 9.79% 14.69%19.59%24.49%29.38%34.28%39.18%44.08%48.97% Energy Cost ($/kWhe AC) -32.86% -29.58% -26.29% -23.00% -19.72% -16.43% -13.15%-9.86% -6.57% -3.29% 0.00% 3.29% 6.57% 9.86% 13.15%16.43%19.72%23.00%26.29%29.58%32.86% Capacity Factor (%) 31.19%25.52%20.79%16.79%13.36%10.39% 7.80% 5.50% 3.46% 1.64% 0.00% -1.48% -2.83% -4.07% -5.19% -6.23% -7.19% -8.08% -8.90% -9.35% -9.35% y = 0.008x - 0.0882 y = 0.0053x - 0.0588 y = 0.0012x - 0.0131 y = 0.0056x - 0.0602 y = 0.0035x - 0.0385 y = 0.049x - 0.5387 y = -5E-05x3 + 0.0026x2 - 0.0562x + 0.3581 -70% -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% LCOH Variance Parameter Variance from Baseline Case LCOH 1D Sensitivity Stack Pack Cost ($/kWe DC) BoP Pack Cost ($/kWe DC) Civil/Infra Pack Cost ($/kWe DC) WACC (%) Fixed O&M Cost (% of EPC Cost) Total Sp. Energy Consump. (kWhe AC/Kg H2) Energy Cost ($/kWhe AC) Capacity Factor (%) Linear (Stack Pack Cost ($/kWe DC)) Linear (BoP Pack Cost ($/kWe DC)) Green-Hydrogen-Model-LCOH-rev-5-fm211204-draft-1-30yrs-1GWe-70pcCF-1.8cent-OPT-R3 Sensitivity-1D-2D © 2020 Fadi Maalouf Version: 5 Date: 4/12/2021 Page 10 of 17
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Toolkit 0.75 0.98 1.33 1.35 1.39 1.38 1.41 1.45 2.18 1.94 1.92 1.58 1.55 1.54 1.51 1.48 1.46 $0.0 $0.5 $1.0
$1.5 $2.0 $2.5 LCOH $/Kg H2 Parameter Tornado Chart - LCOH $/Kg H2 Total Sp. Energy Consump. (kWhe AC/Kg H2) (-50%, 0%, 50%) Energy Cost ($/kWhe AC) (-50%, 0%, 50%) Capacity Factor (%) (50%, 0%, -50%) Stack Pack Cost ($/kWe DC) (-50%, 0%, 50%) BoP Pack Cost ($/kWe DC) (-50%, 0%, 50%) Fixed O&M Cost (% of EPC Cost) (-50%, 0%, 50%) WACC (%) (-50%, 0%, 50%) Civil/Infra Pack Cost ($/kWe DC) (-50%, 0%, 50%) Green-Hydrogen-Model-LCOH-rev-5-fm211204-draft-1-30yrs-1GWe-70pcCF-1.8cent-OPT-R3 Sensitivity-1D-2D © 2020 Fadi Maalouf Version: 5 Date: 4/12/2021 Page 11 of 17
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Toolkit 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 LCOH $/Kg H 2 Capacity Factor (%) LCOH
Sensitivity 2D Energy Cost ($/kWhe AC) & Capacity Factor (%) 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030 0.035 0.040 0.045 0.050 0.055 0.060 Energy Cost ($/kWhe AC) Legend 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 LCOH $/Kg H 2 Capacity Factor (%) LCOH Sensitivity 2D Stack Pack Cost ($/kWe DC) & Capacity Factor (%) 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 Stack Pack Cost ($/kWe DC) Legend 0 1 2 3 4 5 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 LCOH $/Kg H 2 Stack Pack Cost ($/kWe AC) LCOH Sensitivity 2D Energy Cost ($/kWhe AC) & Stack Pack Cost ($/kWe DC) 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030 0.035 0.040 0.045 0.050 0.055 0.060 Energy Cost ($/kWhe AC) Legend 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 LCOH $/Kg H 2 T. Specific Energy Consumption (kWhe AC/Kg H2) LCOH Sensitivity 2D Energy Cost ($/kWhe AC) & T. Specific Energy Consumption (kWhe AC/Kg H2) 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030 0.035 0.040 0.045 0.050 0.055 0.060 Energy Cost (S/kWhe AC) Legend Green-Hydrogen-Model-LCOH-rev-5-fm211204-draft-1-30yrs-1GWe-70pcCF-1.8cent-OPT-R3 Sensitivity-1D-2D © 2020 Fadi Maalouf Version: 5 Date: 4/12/2021 Page 12 of 17
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Toolkit 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 60 59 58
57 56 55 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 LCOH $/Kg H 2 Total Specific Energy Consump (kWhe AC/Kg H2) LCOH Sensitivity 2D Stack Pack Cost ($/kWe DC) & T. Specific Energy Consumption (kWhe AC/Kg H2) 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 Stack Pack Cost ($/kWe DC) Legend Electrolyzer Development Roadmap Analysis LCOH 2D Sensitivity for Efficiency and Cost Electrolyzer Total Specific Energy Consumption kWhe AC/Kg H2 & Stack Pack Cost $/kWe DC Impact on LCOH Green-Hydrogen-Model-LCOH-rev-5-fm211204-draft-1-30yrs-1GWe-70pcCF-1.8cent-OPT-R3 Sensitivity-1D-2D © 2020 Fadi Maalouf Version: 5 Date: 4/12/2021 Page 13 of 17
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Toolkit 1.52 1.46 1.44 1.4 1.42 1.44 1.46 1.48 1.5 1.52 1.54 20 30 40 LCOH $/Kg H 2 Plant
Lifecycle Years LCOH Plant Lifecycle Sensitivity Analysis Green-Hydrogen-Model-LCOH-rev-5-fm211204-draft-1-30yrs-1GWe-70pcCF-1.8cent-OPT-R3 Sensitivity-1D-2D © 2020 Fadi Maalouf Version: 5 Date: 4/12/2021 Page 14 of 17
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Toolkit DATA TABLES -
2D LCOH $/Kg H2 Sensitivity Analysis - 2D Energy Cost ($/kWhe AC) $1.462938 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030 0.035 0.040 0.045 0.050 0.055 0.060 10% 3.240220 3.507320 3.774420 4.041520 4.308620 4.575720 4.842820 5.109920 5.377020 5.644120 5.911220 6.178320 6.445420 15% 2.174991 2.442091 2.709191 2.976291 3.243391 3.510491 3.777591 4.044691 4.311791 4.578891 4.845991 5.113091 5.380191 20% 1.642393 1.909493 2.176593 2.443693 2.710793 2.977893 3.244993 3.512093 3.779193 4.046293 4.313393 4.580493 4.847593 25% 1.322848 1.589948 1.857048 2.124148 2.391248 2.658348 2.925448 3.192548 3.459648 3.726748 3.993848 4.260948 4.528048 30% 1.109828 1.376928 1.644028 1.911128 2.178228 2.445328 2.712428 2.979528 3.246628 3.513728 3.780828 4.047928 4.315028 35% 0.957681 1.224781 1.491881 1.758981 2.026081 2.293181 2.560281 2.827381 3.094481 3.361581 3.628681 3.895781 4.162881 40% 0.843580 1.110680 1.377780 1.644880 1.911980 2.179080 2.446180 2.713280 2.980380 3.247480 3.514580 3.781680 4.048780 45% 0.754841 1.021941 1.289041 1.556141 1.823241 2.090341 2.357441 2.624541 2.891641 3.158741 3.425841 3.692941 3.960041 50% 0.683858 0.950958 1.218058 1.485158 1.752258 2.019358 2.286458 2.553558 2.820658 3.087758 3.354858 3.621958 3.889058 55% 0.625786 0.892886 1.159986 1.427086 1.694186 1.961286 2.228386 2.495486 2.762586 3.029686 3.296786 3.563886 3.830986 60% 0.577400 0.844500 1.111600 1.378700 1.645800 1.912900 2.180000 2.447100 2.714200 2.981300 3.248400 3.515500 3.782600 65% 0.536462 0.803562 1.070662 1.337762 1.604862 1.871962 2.139062 2.406162 2.673262 2.940362 3.207462 3.474562 3.741662 70% 0.501378 0.768478 1.035578 1.302678 1.569778 1.836878 2.103978 2.371078 2.638178 2.905278 3.172378 3.439478 3.706578 75% 0.470976 0.738076 1.005176 1.272276 1.539376 1.806476 2.073576 2.340676 2.607776 2.874876 3.141976 3.409076 3.676176 80% 0.444380 0.711480 0.978580 1.245680 1.512780 1.779880 2.046980 2.314080 2.581180 2.848280 3.115380 3.382480 3.649580 85% 0.420916 0.688016 0.955116 1.222216 1.489316 1.756416 2.023516 2.290616 2.557716 2.824816 3.091916 3.359016 3.626116 90% 0.400064 0.667164 0.934264 1.201364 1.468464 1.735564 2.002664 2.269764 2.536864 2.803964 3.071064 3.338164 3.605264 95% 0.381410 0.648510 0.915610 1.182710 1.449810 1.716910 1.984010 2.251110 2.518210 2.785310 3.052410 3.319510 3.586610 100% 0.364625 0.631725 0.898825 1.165925 1.433025 1.700125 1.967225 2.234325 2.501425 2.768525 3.035625 3.302725 3.569825 Stack Pack Cost ($/kWe DC) $1.462938 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 10% 3.195462 3.491438 3.787414 4.083389 4.379365 4.675341 4.971317 5.267293 5.563269 5.859245 6.155221 6.451197 6.747173 15% 2.464154 2.661918 2.859681 3.057445 3.255209 3.452973 3.650737 3.848501 4.046265 4.244029 4.441793 4.639557 4.837321 20% 2.098511 2.247170 2.395830 2.544489 2.693149 2.841808 2.990468 3.139127 3.287787 3.436446 3.585105 3.733765 3.882424 25% 1.879134 1.998332 2.117530 2.236728 2.355926 2.475124 2.594322 2.713520 2.832718 2.951916 3.071114 3.190312 3.309510 30% 1.732891 1.832449 1.932007 2.031565 2.131123 2.230681 2.330239 2.429797 2.529355 2.628913 2.728471 2.828029 2.927588 35% 1.628438 1.713968 1.799499 1.885029 1.970560 2.056090 2.141620 2.227151 2.312681 2.398212 2.483742 2.569272 2.654803 40% 1.550104 1.625115 1.700125 1.775136 1.850146 1.925156 2.000167 2.075177 2.150188 2.225198 2.300209 2.375219 2.450229 45% 1.489183 1.556012 1.622841 1.689670 1.756499 1.823328 1.890157 1.956986 2.023815 2.090644 2.157473 2.224301 2.291130 50% 1.440451 1.500735 1.561020 1.621304 1.681588 1.741873 1.802157 1.862442 1.922726 1.983010 2.043295 2.103579 2.163864 55% 1.400583 1.455514 1.510444 1.565374 1.620305 1.675235 1.730165 1.785096 1.840026 1.894956 1.949887 2.004817 2.059747 60% 1.367364 1.417834 1.468303 1.518772 1.569241 1.619710 1.670179 1.720648 1.771118 1.821587 1.872056 1.922525 1.972994 65% 1.339260 1.385955 1.432649 1.479344 1.526039 1.572734 1.619429 1.666123 1.712818 1.759513 1.806208 1.852903 1.899598 70% 1.315174 1.358634 1.402094 1.445554 1.489014 1.532474 1.575934 1.619394 1.662855 1.706315 1.749775 1.793235 1.836695 75% 1.294302 1.334959 1.375616 1.416274 1.456931 1.497588 1.538245 1.578902 1.619559 1.660217 1.700874 1.741531 1.782188 80% 1.276043 1.314248 1.352453 1.390658 1.428863 1.467068 1.505273 1.543478 1.581683 1.619888 1.658093 1.696297 1.734502 85% 1.259934 1.295976 1.332018 1.368059 1.404101 1.440143 1.476184 1.512226 1.548268 1.584310 1.620351 1.656393 1.692435 90% 1.245619 1.279738 1.313857 1.347976 1.382095 1.416214 1.450333 1.484452 1.518572 1.552691 1.586810 1.620929 1.655048 95% 1.232812 1.265212 1.297611 1.330010 1.362410 1.394809 1.427208 1.459607 1.492007 1.524406 1.556805 1.589205 1.621604 100% 1.221289 1.252141 1.282993 1.313845 1.344696 1.375548 1.406400 1.437252 1.468104 1.498955 1.529807 1.560659 1.591511 Energy Cost ($/kWhe AC) $1.462938 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030 0.035 0.040 0.045 0.050 0.055 0.060 100 0.353614 0.620714 0.887814 1.154914 1.422014 1.689114 1.956214 2.223314 2.490414 2.757514 3.024614 3.291714 3.558814 150 0.397074 0.664174 0.931274 1.198374 1.465474 1.732574 1.999674 2.266774 2.533874 2.800974 3.068074 3.335174 3.602274 200 0.440534 0.707634 0.974734 1.241834 1.508934 1.776034 2.043134 2.310234 2.577334 2.844434 3.111534 3.378634 3.645734 250 0.483994 0.751094 1.018194 1.285294 1.552394 1.819494 2.086594 2.353694 2.620794 2.887894 3.154994 3.422094 3.689194 300 0.527454 0.794554 1.061654 1.328754 1.595854 1.862954 2.130054 2.397154 2.664254 2.931354 3.198454 3.465554 3.732654 350 0.570914 0.838014 1.105114 1.372214 1.639314 1.906414 2.173514 2.440614 2.707714 2.974814 3.241914 3.509014 3.776114 400 0.614374 0.881474 1.148574 1.415674 1.682774 1.949874 2.216974 2.484074 2.751174 3.018274 3.285374 3.552474 3.819574 450 0.657834 0.924934 1.192034 1.459134 1.726234 1.993334 2.260434 2.527534 2.794634 3.061734 3.328834 3.595934 3.863034 500 0.701295 0.968395 1.235495 1.502595 1.769695 2.036795 2.303895 2.570995 2.838095 3.105195 3.372295 3.639395 3.906495 550 0.744755 1.011855 1.278955 1.546055 1.813155 2.080255 2.347355 2.614455 2.881555 3.148655 3.415755 3.682855 3.949955 600 0.788215 1.055315 1.322415 1.589515 1.856615 2.123715 2.390815 2.657915 2.925015 3.192115 3.459215 3.726315 3.993415 650 0.831675 1.098775 1.365875 1.632975 1.900075 2.167175 2.434275 2.701375 2.968475 3.235575 3.502675 3.769775 4.036875 700 0.875135 1.142235 1.409335 1.676435 1.943535 2.210635 2.477735 2.744835 3.011935 3.279035 3.546135 3.813235 4.080335 Energy Cost ($/kWhe AC) $1.462938 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030 0.035 0.040 0.045 0.050 0.055 0.060 20 0.206480 0.306480 0.406480 0.506480 0.606480 0.706480 0.806480 0.906480 1.006480 1.106480 1.206480 1.306480 1.406480 25 0.250600 0.375600 0.500600 0.625600 0.750600 0.875600 1.000600 1.125600 1.250600 1.375600 1.500600 1.625600 1.750600 30 0.294720 0.444720 0.594720 0.744720 0.894720 1.044720 1.194720 1.344720 1.494720 1.644720 1.794720 1.944720 2.094720 35 0.338840 0.513840 0.688840 0.863840 1.038840 1.213840 1.388840 1.563840 1.738840 1.913840 2.088840 2.263840 2.438840 40 0.382960 0.582960 0.782960 0.982960 1.182960 1.382960 1.582960 1.782960 1.982960 2.182960 2.382960 2.582960 2.782960 45 0.427080 0.652080 0.877080 1.102080 1.327080 1.552080 1.777080 2.002080 2.227080 2.452080 2.677080 2.902080 3.127080 50 0.471200 0.721200 0.971200 1.221200 1.471200 1.721200 1.971200 2.221200 2.471200 2.721200 2.971200 3.221200 3.471200 55 0.515320 0.790320 1.065320 1.340320 1.615320 1.890320 2.165320 2.440320 2.715320 2.990320 3.265320 3.540320 3.815320 60 0.559440 0.859440 1.159440 1.459440 1.759440 2.059440 2.359440 2.659440 2.959440 3.259440 3.559440 3.859440 4.159440 65 0.603560 0.928560 1.253560 1.578560 1.903560 2.228560 2.553560 2.878560 3.203560 3.528560 3.853560 4.178560 4.503560 70 0.647680 0.997680 1.347680 1.697680 2.047680 2.397680 2.747680 3.097680 3.447680 3.797680 4.147680 4.497680 4.847680 75 0.691800 1.066800 1.441800 1.816800 2.191800 2.566800 2.941800 3.316800 3.691800 4.066800 4.441800 4.816800 5.191800 80 0.735920 1.135920 1.535920 1.935920 2.335920 2.735920 3.135920 3.535920 3.935920 4.335920 4.735920 5.135920 5.535920 Stack Pack Cost ($/kWe DC) $1.462938 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 60 2.059234 2.010421 1.961608 1.912794 1.863981 1.815168 1.766355 1.717541 1.668728 1.619915 1.571101 1.522288 1.473475 59 2.025414 1.977414 1.929414 1.881415 1.833415 1.785415 1.737415 1.689416 1.641416 1.593416 1.545416 1.497416 1.449417 58 1.991593 1.944407 1.897221 1.850035 1.802848 1.755662 1.708476 1.661290 1.614104 1.566917 1.519731 1.472545 1.425359 57 1.957773 1.911400 1.865027 1.818655 1.772282 1.725909 1.679537 1.633164 1.586792 1.540419 1.494046 1.447674 1.401301 56 1.923952 1.878393 1.832834 1.787275 1.741716 1.696157 1.650598 1.605038 1.559479 1.513920 1.468361 1.422802 1.377243 55 1.890132 1.845386 1.800640 1.755895 1.711149 1.666404 1.621658 1.576913 1.532167 1.487422 1.442676 1.397931 1.353185 54 1.856311 1.812379 1.768447 1.724515 1.680583 1.636651 1.592719 1.548787 1.504855 1.460923 1.416991 1.373059 1.329127 53 1.822490 1.779372 1.736254 1.693135 1.650017 1.606898 1.563780 1.520661 1.477543 1.434425 1.391306 1.348188 1.305069 52 1.788670 1.746365 1.704060 1.661755 1.619450 1.577145 1.534841 1.492536 1.450231 1.407926 1.365621 1.323316 1.281011 51 1.754849 1.713358 1.671867 1.630375 1.588884 1.547393 1.505901 1.464410 1.422919 1.381427 1.339936 1.298445 1.256953 50 1.721029 1.680351 1.639673 1.598995 1.558318 1.517640 1.476962 1.436284 1.395607 1.354929 1.314251 1.273573 1.232896 49 1.687208 1.647344 1.607480 1.567615 1.527751 1.487887 1.448023 1.408159 1.368294 1.328430 1.288566 1.248702 1.208838 48 1.653388 1.614337 1.575286 1.536236 1.497185 1.458134 1.419084 1.380033 1.340982 1.301932 1.262881 1.223830 1.184780 47 1.619567 1.581330 1.543093 1.504856 1.466619 1.428381 1.390144 1.351907 1.313670 1.275433 1.237196 1.198959 1.160722 46 1.585746 1.548323 1.510899 1.473476 1.436052 1.398629 1.361205 1.323782 1.286358 1.248935 1.211511 1.174087 1.136664 45 1.551926 1.515316 1.478706 1.442096 1.405486 1.368876 1.332266 1.295656 1.259046 1.222436 1.185826 1.149216 1.112606 44 1.518105 1.482309 1.446512 1.410716 1.374920 1.339123 1.303327 1.267530 1.231734 1.195937 1.160141 1.124345 1.088548 43 1.484285 1.449302 1.414319 1.379336 1.344353 1.309370 1.274387 1.239405 1.204422 1.169439 1.134456 1.099473 1.064490 42 1.450464 1.416295 1.382125 1.347956 1.313787 1.279617 1.245448 1.211279 1.177110 1.142940 1.108771 1.074602 1.040432 41 1.416644 1.383288 1.349932 1.316576 1.283220 1.249865 1.216509 1.183153 1.149797 1.116442 1.083086 1.049730 1.016374 40 1.382823 1.350281 1.317739 1.285196 1.252654 1.220112 1.187570 1.155027 1.122485 1.089943 1.057401 1.024859 0.992316 39 1.349002 1.317274 1.285545 1.253816 1.222088 1.190359 1.158630 1.126902 1.095173 1.063444 1.031716 0.999987 0.968259 38 1.315182 1.284267 1.253352 1.222436 1.191521 1.160606 1.129691 1.098776 1.067861 1.036946 1.006031 0.975116 0.944201 37 1.281361 1.251260 1.221158 1.191057 1.160955 1.130853 1.100752 1.070650 1.040549 1.010447 0.980346 0.950244 0.920143 36 1.247541 1.218253 1.188965 1.159677 1.130389 1.101101 1.071813 1.042525 1.013237 0.983949 0.954661 0.925373 0.896085 Total Spec Energy Consump (kWhe AC/Kg H2) Total Spec Energy Consump (kWhe AC/Kg H2) Capacity Factor (%) Capacity Factor (%) Stack Pack Cost (S/kWe DC) Green-Hydrogen-Model-LCOH-rev-5-fm211204-draft-1-30yrs-1GWe-70pcCF-1.8cent-OPT-R3 Sensitivity-1D-2D © 2020 Fadi Maalouf Version: 5 Date: 4/12/2021 Page 15 of 17
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