This deck is about how learn a new technology topic quickly so that you can be able to understand a client's POV and strategic concerns. The research subject in this example from 2009 is a bit dated, but the research methods are relevant. I use this when I teach foresight research methods.

1. July 2009
From Zero to Future in 8 Hours:
An Example of Futures Research
UH Certificate in Strategic Foresight
Cody Clark

2. Cody ClarkJuly 20092
The Working Example
Domain: Rapid Manufacturing, 3-D
printing, etc.
Client’s perspective: Want some
context on a new technology to
evaluate a potential investment
proposal
Sharing a small portion of the first pass

3. Cody ClarkJuly 20093
Alternative FuturesAlternative Futures
History
• Previous eras,
discontinuities
• Current “era,”
most recent
discontinuities
History
• Previous eras,
discontinuities
• Current “era,”
most recent
discontinuities
Impacts
Implications
Strategic concerns
Opportunities
Challenges
Impacts
Implications
Strategic concerns
Opportunities
Challenges
GoalsGoals
UncertaintiesUncertainties
Current conditions
• STEEP
• Stakeholders,
Customers,
Competitors
Current conditions
• STEEP
• Stakeholders,
Customers,
Competitors
Baseline FutureBaseline Future
Forces of change
• ongoing trends
• announced plans
• potential events
• emerging issues
• new ideas
Forces of change
• ongoing trends
• announced plans
• potential events
• emerging issues
• new ideas
}}
}}
InitiativesInitiatives
StrategiesStrategies
Futures Research Loads The Initial Foresight Framework

4. Cody ClarkJuly 20094
Research Strategy: What to Seek
1. Find the Center
- Terminology, Experts, Authoritative Sources, History, Standard
Measures and Current Values
1. Find the Edges
- Research Centers, Discussions, Blogs, “Fringe” Elements
1. Find the “Ecosystem” (Transactional Environment)
- Applications, Market, Customers, Suppliers, Enabling
Technologies, Competitors
1. Find the Future
1. Assess the “velocity” of the domain
2. Catch people talking about the future
3. Discern trends from your own research

5. Cody ClarkJuly 20095
Start learning with some basic scanning
 Modes of Scanning*
- Undirected Viewing – gather general information just to be
informed (“sensing”)
- Conditioned Viewing – gathering general information and
assessing its relevance to the organization (“sense-making”)
- Informal Searching – actively seeking specific information in an
unstructured way (“learning”)
- Formal Searching – actively seeking specific information using
formal methods for specific purposes (“deciding”)
 Want to sample some unstructured information, informal learning
 Because Google is just too convenient. Get it out of your system.
*Source: P Hayward, Swinburne University of Technology from Choo, 2003

6. Cody ClarkJuly 20096
Initial Learning on an Unfamiliar Topic
<subject> AND “Introduction To”
<subject> AND “Tutorial”
“Guide To” <subject>
<subject> AND (Taxonomy OR
Ontology)
Children's’ section of the library

7. Cody ClarkJuly 20097
Finding a Tutorial

8. Cody ClarkJuly 20098
A place to explore

9. Cody ClarkJuly 20099
Helpful summary table

10. Cody ClarkJuly 200910
Now we need to get serious…
 Modes of Scanning*
- Undirected Viewing – gather general information just to be
informed (“sensing”)
- Conditioned Viewing – gathering general information and
assessing its relevance to the organization (“sense-making”)
- Informal Searching – actively seeking specific information in an
unstructured way (“learning”)
- Formal Searching – actively seeking specific information
using formal methods for specific purposes (“deciding”)
 Want to start formal research, with authoritative sources,
corroboration, etc.
 Google is not sufficient
*Source: P Hayward, Swinburne University of Technology from Choo, 2003

11. Cody ClarkJuly 200911
Search Strategy: Where to Seek
 Start with the Library Reference Section!
- Encyclopedias, Handbooks
- Reference Librarian
- Controlled Vocabulary
- Databases (EBSCO, etc.)
- Citation Reference
 Start with mainstream sources by journalists or general
interest writers.
 Then use the Internet

12. Cody ClarkJuly 200912
Using Big Heavy Books to Stand On
 No articles on domain in general encyclopaedias or subject
encyclopaedias
 Reference Librarian pointed me to Applied Technology section
 Found McGraw-Hill Machining and Metalworking Handbook, 3rd
ed.
Chapter 10 on Solid Freeform Fabrication (2006)
- Written by Denis Cormier, Director of Integrated Manufacturing systems
Engineering Institute, SME Young Manufacturing Engineer Award winner
- More formal terms (Solid Freeform Fabrication) and basic taxonomy
- Started basic mind map – inputs, technologies, outputs, applications
- Found summary of basic technologies and confirmed the online summary
- Foundational Technology Pioneers – 3D Systems, Stratsys, Z Systems, Arcan
AB
- Verified the basic measures or dimensions of the field (cost per unit at low
volume, part size, finish, accuracy, part complexity, etc.)
- Additional technology leads “electron beam melting,” “direct-metal”
- Mentioned the work of Bathsheba Grossman, artist (?)

13. Cody ClarkJuly 200913
Search Strategy: How to Seek
 Traditional Snowball Search
- Start with article, record keywords, sources
- Move to each referenced source and do same, recursively
- Moves “backward” through literature
 Citation Search
- Start with article, record keywords, sources
- Find all articles that reference the article and do the same, recursively
- Moves “forward” through literature
 Use Expand – Contract Cycles
- EXPAND – Gather many references and keywords and ideas
- CONTRACT – Look for patterns, select best keywords and ideas, move forward
with reduced list
- REPEAT. Each cycle is a “pass,” or session.

14. Cody ClarkJuly 200914
Denis Cormier led to the SME

15. Cody ClarkJuly 200915
The SME sponsors the RAPID 2009

16. Cody ClarkJuly 200916
RAPID 2009 lists key resources
Corroboration. Where we
started with informal
learning
An annual report with an
executive summary?
Sounds expensive.

17. Cody ClarkJuly 200917
Source for the “Official Future”
Don’t have
$500? Start
with the
freebies.

18. Cody ClarkJuly 200918
Pareto Principle for Foresight Research
80% of the benefit can be achieved
with 20% of the effort. Chase down
leads that look most important. You
can always come back on another
pass.
Benefit
Cost/Time
80%
This last 20% may be justified in a
deep-dive for a critical question
For initial research,
this will do

19. Cody ClarkJuly 200919
Finding the Future
We’ve got three authoritative sources to fill in most of the
current conditions
Now, to “Find the Future”
1. Assess the “velocity” of the domain – Go back through your
sources and compare relative dates
2. Catch people talking about the future – Search looking for
speculative conversations or mine existing forecasts
3. Discern trends from your own research – Draw documented
conclusions from patterns you observe during research

20. Cody ClarkJuly 200920
Sources for Topic-Based Scanners
 Portals/Aggregators
- Citeulike, Eurekalert!, Hubmed, Technorati, del.icio.us, Twitter,
LinkedIn….
 Weblogs/Specialist Community Sites
- SciTech Daily, Slashdot…
 Specialized Search Engines
- Citeseer, Scirus, Google Scholar, SciNet, PSIGate
Find the scanners for your domain

21. Cody ClarkJuly 200921
Catch People Talking about the Future to
Identify Trends and Potential Events
Futures “additive” keywords that “catch” people talking about the
future.
“of the future” “of tomorrow” “implications” AND “emerging” “long
term” “trend” “by the year” “vision” “scenario” “wildcard” “sea
change” “the next * years” “2020” “2030” “crossroads” “dilemma”

22. Cody ClarkJuly 200922
Rapid Manufacturing AND “of the future”

23. Cody ClarkJuly 200923
Rapid Manufacturing AND “2030”

24. Cody ClarkJuly 200924
Detecting Forces of Change
Internal: Look for incremental change in key domain
variables and current conditions
 Survey the research efforts. What variables are they trying to improve?
 Survey the vendors. What variables do they claim differentiate their new
products?
External: Look for changes in the environment that might
affect/interact with the domain
 Nanotechnology  Increasing the variety and sophistication of available
RM materials
 Recession  Slowing the “boom”

25. Cody ClarkJuly 200925
Product Release Example
Increases
volume and
speed for
lower-cost
unit.
Incremental
Change.

26. Cody ClarkJuly 200926
Research/Application Example
Large scale
version of
RM to
“print”
entire
houses.
Novel
Application.

27. Cody ClarkJuly 200927
Trends in Rapid Manufacturing
 Incremental improvements in key domain variables,
especially size, cost, quality, and final accuracy. Moving
toward parts that can be used directly in production.
 Increasing complexity, intricacy of possible designs,
extending to multiple simultaneous materials
 Increase in the varieties of materials that can be used
and therefore the variety of applications
 Low-end technologies are enabling an enthusiast class of
user (artists, hobbyists)
 Increasing automation of the Rapid Manufacturing
process

28. Cody ClarkJuly 200928
Larger Forces Interacting With The Rapid
Manufacturing Domain To Imply
Interesting Potential Futures
 Nanotechnology
 Mass-customization
 Distributed Production
 Collaboration
 Disintermediation
 Robotics and AI
 Intellectual Property/Piracy Issues

29. Cody ClarkJuly 200929
Thank You
Merci
Grazie
Gracias
Obrigado
Danke
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