YD19034_5G's_Impact_on_RF_FEM_and_Connectivity_for_Cell_Phones_Yole_2019_Report.pdf

From Technologies to Markets
© 2019
5G’s Impact on RF
Front-End Module
& Connectivity
for Cell Phones
2019
Market and Technology
Report

2
AiP Antenna-in-Package
AlN Aluminum Nitride
AR Augmented Reality
ARCEP Autorité de Régulation des Communications Électroniques et des Postes (French Regulatory
Authority for telecommunications)
ASP Average Selling Price
AWS Advanced Wireless Service
B2B Business to Business
B2C Business to Consumer
BAW Bulk Acoustic Wave
BNETZA Bundesnetzagentur (German Regulatory Authority for Industries: Telecommunications,
Postal Services, Railways, Electricity)
BPSK Binary Phase-Shift Keying
BRS Broadband Radio Service
BT Bluetooth
CA Carrier Aggregation
CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate
CBRS Citizen Broadband Radio Service
CMOS Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor
CP-OFDM Cyclic Prefix Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing
cREO Crystalline Rare-Earth Oxide
DC Dual Connectivity
DL Downlink
Drx FEM Diversity Receive Front-End Module
EB Exabyte
EBS Educational Broadband Service
EDGE Enhanced Data GSM Environment
eLAA Enhanced Licensed Assisted Access
FBAR Film Bulk-Acoustic Resonator
FCC Federal Communications Commission
FEM Front-End Module
FWA Fixed Wireless Access
GAA General Authorized Access
GaAs Gallium Arsenide
GaN Gallium Nitride
Gbps Gigabits Per Second
GNSS Global Navigation Satellite Service
GSM Global System for Mobile Communications
GSMA GSM Association
HB High Band
HBT Heterojunction Bipolar Transistor
HSPA High-Speed Packet Access
IDT Inter Digital Transducer
IHP SAW Incredible High-Performance Surface Acoustic Wave
IIP3 Input Interception Point 3
IMD Intermodulation Distortion
InGaP Indium Gallium Phosphide
IPD Integrated Passive Device
5G’s Impact on RF Front-End Module and Connectivity for Cell phones 2019 | Report | www.yole.fr | ©2019
GLOSSARY (1/2)

3
LAA Licensed Assisted Access
LB Low Band
LNA Low-Noise Amplifier
LPAMiF Power Amplifier with Integrated Low-Noise Amplifier and Filters
LSA Licensed Shared Access
LTE Long-Term Evolution
LTE-U Long-Term Evolution - Unlicensed
LWA LTE - WLAN Aggregation
M2M Machine to Machine
MB Mid Band
Mbps Megabits Per Second
MIC Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (Japan)
MIIT Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (China)
MIMO Multiple Input Multiple Output
MLCC Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitor
MMMB PA Multi-Mode Multi-Band Power Amplifier
NR New Radio
NSA Non Stand-Alone
OEM Original Equipment Manufacturer
PA Power Amplifier
PAE Power-Added Efficiency
PAL Priority Access Licenses
PAM Power Amplifier Module
PAMiD Power Amplifier Module with integrated Duplexer
PAMiF Power Amplifier Module with Integrated Filter
PCS Personal Communications Service
PHEMT "Pseudomorphic High-Electron Mobility Transistor"
POI Piezzo-on-Insulator
QAM Quadrature Amplitude Modulation
SA Stand-Alone
SAW Surface Acoustic Wave
SiGe Silicon Germanium
SMR Solid Mounted Resonator
SMR Specialized Mobile Radio
SoC System-on-Chip
SOI Silicon-on-Insulator
SUL Supplementary UpLink
TAM Total Available Market
TC-SAW Temperature-Compensated Surface Acoustic Wave
TD-SCDMA Time Division Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access
UHB Ultra High-Band
UL Uplink
UWB Ultra-Wide Band
VR Virtual Reality
WCDMA Wideband Code Division Multiple Access
WiFi Wireless Fidelity
WLAN Wireless Local Area Network
XR Extended Reality
GLOSSARY (2/2)

4
 Glossary & definitions 2
 Table of contents 4
 Report objectives 5
 Report scope 6
 Report methodology 7
 About the authors 8
 Companies cited in this report 9
 What we got right, what we got wrong 10
 Executive summary 11
 Market forecasts 51
o Market forecast in $M, by RF component and air standard
o Component forecast, in Mu
o Technology breakdown by component, in Mu
o Wafer start per technology, in kw
 Market trends 99
o 5G mobile market dynamics
o 5G use-cases review
o Network rollout status
o Current and future 5G spectrum
TABLE OF CONTENTS
 Market share and supply chain 129
o Smartphone and feature phone market share
o Overall RF front-end market share
o Component-per-component market share
o Player rankings, with financial analysis
o Company outlook
o M&A status
o Ecosystem and business model analysis
o Supply chain analysis (IDM, foundry, and OSAT)
 Technology trends 180
o Radio access technology trend
o PA technology status
o Switch roadmap overview
o Filter technology review (BAW vs. emerging thin-film SAW, IPD)
o Antenna-tuning technology status
 Outlook 220
o Conclusions
o Related reports
 Yole Développement 228

5
REPORT OBJECTIVES
Provide a clear understanding of the RF front-end (RFFE) market, and related technologies
Ecosystem identification and analysis:
• Determine market dynamics
• Technical market description
• Economic requirements, by segment
• Key players, by market and technology
• Market size and market forecast, in $M ($B) and Munits
Analysis and description of the market and technologies involved:
• Major players, worldwide
• Technology identification for different devices and processes
• Competing technologies
• Main technical challenges
• Future directions
Ecosystem
Market
Techno

6
REPORT SCOPE
Are your needs
beyond this
report’s scope?
Contact us for a custom
analysis:
RF front-end modules and components
Connectivity modules and components
5G sub-6 GHz and 5G mmWave modules and components
Modems, transceivers, baseband processors
Antennas, etc.
Topics NOT included in this report
Report focus

7
METHODOLOGIES & DEFINITIONS
Market
Volume (in Munits)
ASP (in $)
Revenue (in $M)
Yole’s market forecast model is based on the matching of several sources:
Information
Aggregation
Preexisting
information

8
Cédric MALAQUIN
As a Technology & Market Analyst specializing in RF devices & technologies at Yole Développement (Yole), Cédric Malaquin is involved in the
development of technology & market reports as well as the production of custom consulting projects. Prior to working with Yole, Cédric was
employed at Soitec as a Process Integration Engineer for nine years, and then as an Electrical Characterization Engineer for six years. Cédric has
contributed heavily to FDSOI and RFSOI product characterization and has authored or co-authored three patents and five international publications
in the semiconductor field. Cédric graduated from Polytech Lille in France with an Engineering degree in Microelectronics and Material Sciences.
Email: malaquin@yole.fr
Antoine Bonnabel is a Technology & Market Analyst for the Power & Wireless team at Yole Développement (Yole). He carries out technical,
marketing, and strategic analyses focused on RF devices, related technologies, and markets. Prior to Yole, Antoine was R&D Program Manager for
DelfMEMS (FR), a company specializing in RF switches, where he supervised Intellectual Property and Business Intelligence activities. Additionally, he
has co-authored several market reports and is co-inventor of three patents in RF MEMS design. Antoine holds an M.Sc. in Microelectronics from
Grenoble Institute of Technologies (France) and an M.Sc. in Management from Grenoble Graduate School of Business (France).
E-mail: bonnabel@yole.fr
Antoine BONNABEL

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Active Semi,Airoha,Akoustis,AMKOR,Apple,ASE,Asus,AT&T,AwinIC, Broadcom,
CanaanTek, Cavendish Kinetics, China Mobile, ChinaTelecom, China Unicom, Chip
Bond, CoolPad, CSMC, Cypress Semiconductor, EE, Elisa, Etisalat, GlobalFoundries,
Google, HH Grace, HiSilicon, HMD Global, HTC, Huatian, Huawei, Huntersun, Inari
Technology, Infineon, Intel, IQE, Itel, JCET, Jio, JRC, KDDI, KT, Kyocera, Lansus, Lenovo,
LG, LG U+, Maxscend, MediaTek, Meizu, Monaco Telecom, Murata, NationZ, NTT
Docomo, NXP, ON Semiconductor, OnePlus, Ooredoo, Oppo, Orange, Psemi, Qorvo,
Qualcomm, Quantenna, RDA, Resonant, Richwave, Samsung, Samsung Electro
Mechanical, SAWNICS, Shoulder, ShunSinTechnology, SK Telecom, Skyworks, Smarter
Micro, SMIC, SoftBank, Soitec, Sony, SPIL, Spreadtrum, Sprint, STMicroecletronics, STC,
Sunrise, Swisscom,TaiyoYuden,TCL,TDK EPCOS,Tecno Mobile,Telefonica,Telia,
Telstra,TIM,T-Mobile,Toshiba,TowerJazz,Tpsco,TSMC, UMC, Unisem, USIVanchip,
Verizon,VIVA,Vivo,Vodafone,WillSemi,WIN Semiconductors,WIPAM,Wisol, Xiaomi,
Xpeedic,Yuzhen IC, ZTE
COMPANIES CITED IN THIS REPORT

10
• 4x4 MIMO, carrier aggregation, and dual
connectivity are driving RF front-end
growth
• The ultra high-band 5G market is
confirmed, and will represent the majority
of front-end growth
• LNA/switch integration occurs in
diversity front-end module
• The smartphone market stabilized earlier
than anticipated, which impacts RF front-
end unit sales
• Global RF front-end market size was
overestimated due to 8x8 MIMO, which
will not happen in the next five years
• 5G mmWave will arrive a year sooner
than anticipated
• Discrete market ratio was
underestimated for all phone segments
WHATWE GOT RIGHT,WHAT WE GOT WRONG

Executive Summary

12
• 5G network is ON in several markets worldwide, and almost nationwide already (or in very limited
locations)
• 5G sub-6 GHz is the main path followed, with network rollouts in South Korea and Switzerland for
instance, and plans for other rollouts in Europe, the U.S. (with Sprint), China (with its three main
carriers), and Japan
• 5G mmWave rollout is currently limited to the U.S., with Verizon pushing it. AT&T should soon follow in
order to leverage its own spectrum while marketing a 5G+ service. T-Mobile also plans to create
mmWave hot spots across multiple towns in the U.S. 5G mmWave rollout is also expected in South
Korea and in Japan, where operators already have spectrum licenses. However, the mmWave rollout in
other regions is not so straightforward, for multiple reasons. First, regulatory issues might be a
showstopper, especially in Europe. Second, sub-6GHz spectrum cost has been especially elevated, which
means operators will want their ROI first before investing in mmWave. They will need financial resources
for Capex now. Third, an mmWave network rollout has not yet proven to be cost-efficient, and the
promised “super-fast performance” is still far away.
• However, 5G handset manufacturers have answered with the early launch of 5G devices in 2019,
dedicated to either sub 6-GHz or mmWave
• It’s unlikely that handsets will have 5G mmWave and 5G sub-6 connectivity: the first 5G phones
integrate one or the other. Even in the sub-6 GHz domain, frequency allocations and licenses are
fragmented, which could evolve into market regionalization - whereas 5G was supposed to be a unified
standard.
• After preliminary band rollout, 3G/LTE band re-farming will happen gradually
THREE-PAGE SUMMARY
5G market - outlook

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• Mobile-traffic data plan is the largest driver for 5G introduction, since the LTE network could
saturate by 2021 - 2022 if demand keeps growing
• 5G use-cases for consumer resemble tentative technology demonstrations for raising consumer
interest
• Though the mobile phone market has declined for two consecutive years since 2016, it still
represented $422B in 2018
• Competition has been reinforced with the progression of main Chinese OEMs taking market share
from Apple and Samsung
• Big OEMs and smaller companies alike are betting on 5G to revive the market or increase their
market share. Apple’s 5G strategy has not been communicated yet, but we don’t think they will
launch a 5G device before 2020.
• Regarding OEM RF front-end architecture, we distinguish between integrated and discrete types.
We assume Chinese OEMs like Huawei, Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi will maintain a high level of discrete
components in order to help with Chinese component providers’ development, according to the
“Made in China 2025” plan. Contrarily, Apple and Samsung, along with Sony, LG, ZTE, Google, and
OnePlus, will pursue the integration trend.
THREE-PAGE SUMMARY
Mobile phone market dynamics - outlook

14
• The total RF front-end and connectivity market will grow from $15B in 2018 to $26B by 2025, at an 8%
CAGR
• 5G RF front-end will represent 27% of the overall RF front-end and connectivity business by 2025,
reaching $7B
• The connectivity segment will grow from $2.5B in 2018 to $3.9B by 2025, while cellular front-end will
grow from $12.4B in 2018 to $22.3B
• The module business represents 70% of TAM, with $10.5B in 2018. Meanwhile, the discrete business is at
$4.5B. This ratio will remain stable through 2025, with the discrete business progressing slightly faster
than the module business. This belief is linked to an assumption of market share for the next six years.
The module business will represent $17.7B by 2025, and the discrete business $8.1B.
• Murata consolidated its leading position in 2018 with activity in each main field (module, discrete, and
connectivity). Skyworks is close behind (mainly in the module business), while Broadcom ranks 3rd with
its high-end module strategy. Qorvo is close too, leveraging business from module and discrete parts.
Qualcomm ranks 5th thanks to its discrete business, but has ambitions of further module market
penetration.
• From a technology standpoint, 5G poses challenges to the RF front-end industry with the development
of wideband PA and filter. This translates to investments in design and material engineering. Regarding the
component quantity and density requested, manufacturing innovation will be required from wafer-level
to packaging, assembly, and test.
THREE-PAGE SUMMARY
RF front-end market - outlook

15
5G-ENABLED APPLICATIONS
Which application can accelerate 5G’s adoption?
5G network
capacity
enables use-
cases and
secures
challenging
use-cases for
LTE
source: GSMA
• As of today, emerging applications
require ultra-high bandwidth, very low
latency, or both
• AR/VR and tactile internet are
incumbent applications that would
require 5G high-throughput and low
latency
• Multi-person video calling and real-time
gaming are at the edge of LTE capability,
and could be added to the list of
potential 5G applications
• As of now, LTE can handle video
streaming. However, with mobile data-
traffic continuously expanding, and LTE
network capacity finite (spectrum is a
limited resource), 5G will eventually be
required to complement LTE capacity.

16
5G COMMERCIAL AVAILABILITY
Global 5G launches (network presence + device commercially available)
Who is winning
the 5G race?
Switzerland,
South Korea,
Kuwait, and
Monaco!
All small
countries with
significant
financial
resources
source: Ookla, as of July 19
Bubbles refer to the number of active cells

17
US/CHINA TRADE WAR IMPACT (1/2)
Focus on Huawei ban or Trump’s political dilemma: the controversy of “America First”
A possible scenario
concerning Huawei’s
ban could be that
Huawei will
accelerate back-up
alternatives, leading
to negative
consequences for the
U.S. and European
economies while
reinforcing China’s
ecosystem and
creating more
opportunities for
Japanese companies.
U.S. suppliers could
lose more than $ -
they could also lose
their leadership.
National
security
threat.
Ban!
I want to be
reelected in 18
months.
Lift the ban!
Extracted from our market-share projection
Direct Indirect

18
Review of hypothesis & possible scenario
What could
happen if
Huawei’s ban is
pursued
beyond 3 - 6
months?We
review a
hypothesis and
possible
scenario
• The first short-term consequence would be U.S. component and module suppliers having to scrap their consigned parts, due
to the time elapsed since manufacture
• In parallel, U.S. front-end module makers would need to secure and qualify new design wins in order to mitigate the ban’s
effect. And in the case of a ban removal, the need for RF front-end module volume from Huawei would be lower, since
Huawei’s sales would inevitably have dropped in the meantime. This would be a double penalty for U.S. RF front-end module
makers.
• European suppliers could also indirectly suffer from the ban. Even if they are allowed to ship parts, Huawei’s mobile phone
volumes would have dropped due to Google’s announcement for access to Android’s full version and updates.
• During the ban period, Huawei would likely accelerate its backup plans for its RF front-end chips, with internal facilities
(HiSilicon) and fabless companies/foundries in China. Huawei could also use Japanese companies for RF parts supply.
• If the backup plan succeeds, Huawei will have secured its independence and could recover its “pre-ban” growth rate.
Obviously, prior to restoring this growth, Huawei would need to solve many challenges: SoC design without ARM, develop
and impose an alternative to Android, etc. Nothing is impossible though: for example, Amazon never penetrated China, and
thus Alibaba was born.
• In any case, Huawei will definitely be supported by the Chinese government
• From our prospective market-share estimation, the ban could cost the US front-end module maker up to $350M worst-case
in 2019, and $400M in 2020
• Skyworks and Qorvo have already revised their estimates for Q1-2019, at ($60M) and ($50M) respectively
• The long-term consequences would be more serious for Skyworks and Qorvo, since they would eventually lose Huawei’s
business

19
5G SEGMENTATION IN THIS REPORT
Enhanced mobile broadband
Enhanced
mobile
broadband is
this report’s
scope
• The enhanced mobile broadband aspect of 5G is this report’s scope
• The other three aspects are explained inYole’s report, 5G's Impact onTelecom Infrastructure 2019
• More details concerning massive machine-type communication can be found in our report, IoT RF
Protocols and their Impact on the Electronics Industry
• Further insight regarding the ultra-reliable, low latency aspect can be found in Yole’s Radar and Wireless
for Automotive report
Markets
Enterprise
(NaaS)
Consumer
(eMBB)
V2X
(URLLC)
Industry
(mMTC)

20
UNIFIED RADIO ACCESS FOR 5G EMBB
Operating in the licensed, unlicensed, and shared spectrums
5G will
seamlessly
aggregate
multiple radio-
access
technologies for
enhanced mobile
broadband. It will
also ensure the
network never
collapses,
regardless of
workload.
5G
Licensed
Unlicensed
Shared WiFi
CBRS, LSA
NR LTE
eLAA
LAA
LTE-U
eLWA
LWA
MulteFire

21
RF MARKET SEGMENTATION
Front-end & connectivity
The overall RF
market is divided
into two main
segments: RF front-
end, which
aggregates all RF
content supporting
cellular
technologies
(2G,3G,4G,5G); and
connectivity, which
includes WiFi,
Bluetooth, and
geolocalization
technologies
Main path
Diversity path
Rx
Rx
Tx
Tx
Rx
Rx

22
FRONT-END & CONNECTIVITY ARCHITECTURE - STATUS AND TRENDS
By major OEM
Apple and Samsung’s
high-end and luxury
phones are highly
integrated, but
Huawei’s are not.
Oppo,Vivo, and
Xiaomi are not much
integrated either.
These last four
brands, which drive
as much volume as
Apple and Samsung
combined, will pursue
a discrete approach
Discrete Integrated
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Integration scale

23
MOBILE PHONE FORECAST
By air standard
• 5G phones entered the market in 2019 and show
a 72% CAGR from 2019 - 2025
• First shipments expected in the U.S., Korea, and
Japan
• In 2025, 5G phone shipments will represent 29%
of the market
• 5G mmWave phones should represent 13% of
5G phones by 2025
• 4G+ phone shipments represented the majority of
smartphone sales in 2018 (73%), spanning from
entry-level to luxury phones
• 4G+ phone shipments will suffer from the
pressure of 5G phones’ penetration rate
• 4G phone shipments will continue increasing,
expanding from the entry-level segment to the
feature phone segment
• As 4G progresses in the feature phone segment,
2G and 3G phones will continue decreasing

24
RF FRONT-END & CONNECTIVITY MARKET - FORECAST
By air standard
The overall RF
front-end &
connectivity
market will
grow at an 8%
CAGR, likely
reaching
$26.1B by
2025. 5G will
represent 33%
ofTAM by
2025.
TAM modules and RF components for front-end & connectivity
2G
3G/4G
5G
WiFi4
WiFi5
WiFi6
GNSS $13,324M
CAGR +2%
$2,373M
CAGR +18%
$331M
CAGR -12%
$8,309M
CAGR +61%
$11,640M
2018
$15,001M
2025
$25,844M
CAGR +8%
$903M
CAGR -12%
$106M
$145M
CAGR +5%
$2,130M
$294M
$830M
$460M
CAGR +7%

25
MOBILE RF - MARKET SEGMENTATION
Air standard
Air standard
segmentation
is quite
complex, since
multiple
generations
can be mixed
in a single
component
• Connectivity segmentation is pretty straightforward:
• Discrete filter, LNA, and module ensuring the geo-localization function are counted as GNSS
• Every component involved in 802.11n WiFi connectivity is counted asWiFi4
• Every component involved in 802.11acWiFi connectivity is counted asWiFi5
• Every component involved in 802.11axWiFi connectivity is counted asWiFi6
• Cellular front-end segmentation is more difficult, since multiple air standards can be aggregated in a
single component.The following segmentation has been applied:
• Stand-alone 2G PAM are classified as 2G
• MMMB PA aggregating 2G/3G/4G, 2G/4G, and 3G/4G are counted as 3G/4G
• Components and modules ensuring 4G connectivity are counted as 3G/4G
• Components and modules ensuring 5G connectivity (LPAMiF, Drx FEM, LNA bank, discrete
switch, stand-alone filter, etc.), as well as 4G modules that include 5G components (i.e. 5G PA
and filter in a PAMiD) are counted as 5G

26
FRONT-END MODULES - DESCRIPTION
A variety of choices
The front-end
module market is
segmented into
eight module
types ranging
from simplest to
most complex.
Front-end
modules simplify
RF board
architecture and
improve
performance.
Integration density and complexity
LNA
Duplexer
Filter
Switches
PA
PMIC
LNA Filter
Switches
PA
PMIC
Filter
Switches
PA
PMIC
Switches
PA
PMIC
PA
PMIC
PMIC
Transceiver
and RF
PA
Antennas
Filter
Switches
LNA
Filter
Switches

27
DISCRETE COMPONENTS - DESCRIPTION
The front-end
discrete market is
segmented into seven
main components.
With discrete, it is
possible to build
complex phones at
the cost of RF board
space, but in an
overall cost-effective
way.
The pain point is
performance.
All in all, it is a matter
of cost/performance
trade-off for the
OEM.
LNA
Rx
Switch
Antenna
Switch
Duplexer n
Tx Filter n
Rx Filter 1
Cross
Switch
Mplexer n
Diplexer
Tuner
Rx Filter n
Tuner
From
PA
module
LNA
Rx
Switch
Antenna
Switch
Rx Filter 1
Rx Filter n
Antenna 1
Antenna 2
Frequency
range1
Frequency
range2

28
CONNECTIVITY COMPONENTS - DESCRIPTION
Connectivity
components
range from the
simplest
discrete
approach to
the deep
integration of
SoC and RF
components
Integration density, complexity, and performance
SoC PA
SoC
SoC
LNA
Filter
Switch
PA
LNA
Filter
Switch
LNA Filter
LNA
Filter
LNA
Filter
Switch
SoC

29
RF FRONT-END & CONNECTIVITY MARKET - FORECAST
By component type
The RF module
market
represented 70%
ofTAM in 2018.
By 2025, we
expect almost
the same
proportion, since
the RF discrete
market will
remain strong
thanks to
demand from
Chinese OEMs.
TAM modules and RF components for front-end & connectivity
PA module
Receive module
Wi-Fi & connectivity module
AiP module
Discrete filter, duplexer, etc.
Discrete switch & LNA
Tuner
$10,420M
CAGR +8%
$5,140M
CAGR 8%
$3,096M
CAGR +6%
$5,958M
2018
$15,001M
2025
$25,844M
CAGR +8%
$2,898M
CAGR 2%
$925M
$1,734M
CAGR +9%
$2,500M
$514M
$3,088M
$1,225M
CAGR +13%
$2,015M
$1,332M
CAGR +68%

30
• The overall mobile RF market will grow at an 8% CAGR, likely reaching $25.8B by 2025
• Cellular front-end should still be the main market, with $21.9B expected by 2025
• The connectivity market will continue growing at a slightly slower pace than cellular, and should
reach $3.8B
• The 5G front-end market should reach $8.3B by 2025, exhibiting the highest CAGR (61%) as the
technology rolls out and is gradually implemented in mobile phones
• The front-end market will likely remain split into two “architecture families”: integrated and discrete
• Integrated architecture will remain the mainstream in the luxury and high-end segments for Apple,
Samsung, and some other low-volume brands (i.e. LG, Sony, ZTE, OnePlus)
• Despite the efforts of RF front-end players to offer entry-level modules, discrete architecture will
remain an important characteristic for entry-level, mid-tier, and high-end phones from Huawei,
Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi. This “discrete strategy” enables differentiation and a lower BoM, while also
supporting Chinese semiconductor tech companies (HiSilicon, Spreadtrum/RDA, Maxscend, etc.)
and reducing module supplier dependence.
MARKET FORECAST
Key takeaways

31
SMARTPHONE OEM - MARKET SHARE
2018
• The overall smartphone market in 2018 was
$422B
• In 2018, smartphone ASP was $232
• OEM market-share progression from 2017 - 2018
is depicted below:
$422B
2018
$167B
$85B
$50B
$21B
$17B
$17B

32
RF FRONT-END - SUPPLIER FOOTPRINT
Others
Discrete
part
Receive
module
PA
module
OEM

33
RF FRONT-END & CONNECTIVITY - OVERALL MARKET SHARE
2018
$15B
2018
• Murata had the largest product portfolio. Discrete
RF components (mainly filter & duplexer)
generated $1.4B, and RF module (PAMiD, Drx
FEM,WiFi FEM) $2.4B.
• Skyworks is the most widespread RF front-end
player, generating $3.1B
• Broadcom’s high-end strategy paid off, with most
of its $2.1B RF front-end revenue generated from
just two customers
• Qorvo ranked 4th with $1.9B which represents
86% of its mobile product segment
• Qualcomm generated $975M, including $568M
fromTDK Epcos filters
• The top five front-end players held 78% of the
total 2018 RF front-end market

34
RF FRONT END MARKET SHARE
Per type of component/module
* Direct sales to OEM only
TAM 2018*
$15B

35
MAIN RF FRONT-END PLAYERS - STRATEGY
5G has
reinforced
competition
amongst the
RF front-end
leaders
• Murata has a vibrant RF front-end business and is the largest front-end supplier among the top five players.
Murata’s filter business is key for the company, and is reported as a single segment. Murata invested a lot into
filter technology and is a supplier of choice for many smartphone companies. Murata is also strong in module
assembly and can supply the full range of modules, from the simplest to the most complex (receive FEM, PA
modules, and even WiFi FEM). This capability is well supported by another business of Murata: the capacitor,
which is required in module assembly. Murata has prepared for 5G with an upgrade of its filter technology
(IHP SAW) and is likely to remain a top player in the field.
• Broadcom is the sole player to show significant year-over-year (YoY) growth. It is the supplier of choice for
complex PA modules in Apple phones and Samsung flagships. Broadcom heavily relies on its high-performance
filter technology (FBAR), with which it is already prepared for 5G. Broadcom’s focus is clearly on the high-end
segment, and this strategy has paid off.
• Skyworks has the largest footprint, with many design wins ranging from the entry-level segment to luxury
phones. Like Murata, Skyworks can supply every module type (except WiFi FEM). Skyworks has also a
longstanding experience with BAW/FBAR technology. Skyworks exited this filter market back in 2009, selling
patents to Broadcom on AlN deposition and etching. In 2019 the company claim to have released a BAW
filter technology which will be useful for 5G modules. Skyworks is struggling to record further growth
because its Chinese market penetration is limited by the unwillingness of Chinese OEMs to embrace
integrated architecture.
• Qorvo already owns all of the core technology for the RF front-end. However, it has more design wins in
discrete component supply (filters, switches, and tuners) than in modules, which explains its lower sales. There
is obviously more price pressure on the discrete component, but Qorvo is preparing for 5G with PA modules
integrating NR bands, and already has an order from a major OEM in a 5G phone.
• Qualcomm is also heavily supported by discrete component sales (with EPCOS/RF360). The company has
started earning sales from modules (especially receive modules) too, since it is already involved in the
reception chain of several OEMs with LNA bank. Qualcomm has mastered all of the building blocks for
building 5G modules, along with the modem.

36
OTHER PLAYERS IN THE RF FRONT-END FIELD
Many players
are active at
the
component
level, and
some can
build modules
• Wisol is a Korean company focused on SAW filters for LTE, GNSS, and WiFi. Additionally, Wisol has the capability to build
diverse receive modules and has recorded design wins for Samsung and LG flagship phones.
• Taiyo Yuden is a Japanese company and an important supplier of filters with SAW, FBAR, and MLC technologies. With this
range of products,TaiyoYuden can cover the full 5G spectrum.
• Kyocera is another Japanese filter supplier that works heavily with Chinese OEMs like Huawei. However, Kyocera’s
technology portfolio is limited to SAW technology.
• Infineon is a longstanding RF front-end component supplier. It differentiates with its unique CMOS technology for switches
and its SiGe technology for LNA. Infineon is working to extend its technology portfolio in order to capture more share in
the 5G market, likely on the filter business
• NXP is leveraging its proprietary SiGe technology for the supply of LNA for LTE, as well as GPS/GNSS
• HiSilicon is Huawei’s fabless semiconductor arm. It is known for its SoC design for baseband, transceiver, and application
processors, but is also active in LNA design. HiSilicon an interesting company to track, with multiple development
possibilities.
• Sony was once a market leader in switches, with its GaAs PHEMT technology. However, Sony successfully migrated its
product onto RFSOI and has earned multiple design wins for switches and antenna tuners. Sony’s switches can also be found
in highly integrated PAMiD.
• Maxscend is a growing fabless company based in China. It has multiple design wins for RF switches and is taking share from
Qorvo’s discrete parts business.
• WiPAM is a Korean company supplying PA modules for entry-level and mid-tier phones from Samsung and LG
• SAWNICS is another Korean company supplying SAW filters and duplexers to OEMs. It is also a foundry partner of
Resonant for its XBAR technology.

37
FOCUS ON RF FRONT-END COMPANIES IN CHINA
The ecosystem
in China is
expanding to
support the RF
front-end market
with components
and modules.
From our
market-share
estimation, these
companies share
roughly $200M
of the RF device
market.
• RDA is a fabless semiconductor company developing RF components and modules for cellular radio access and connectivity. RDA is part of Unisoc (a core
subsidiary of Tsinghua Unigroup), along with Spreatrum, which develops the SoC. RDA has developed PA modules that support the main bands for FDD-
LTE, TDD-LTE, WCDMA, and TD-SCDMA, and are compatible with HPUE and carrier aggregation requirements. Ultra high-frequency bands (B42, B43) are
also covered by a dedicated module. RDA could be a good candidate for the supply of Huawei’s PA module in case of an extended US ban.
• Smarter Micro (Guangzhou Huizhi Microelectronics) is a fabless semiconductor company that develops reconfigurable MMMB PA modules using a hybrid
HBT/SOI technology: GaAs HBT PA and RFSOI switch.The module supports the main mode and bands.
• Lansus (Hida Technology) supplies MMMB PA modules for 3G/4G to the mobile and infrastructure industries. In Feb. 2018, Lansus joined the 5G innovation
center initiative from China Mobile. Lansus designs PA and switches, and like many others uses RFSOI technology.
• Huntersun develops PA modules for LTE/3G and 2G. The 2G PAM are based on CMOS technology, while the 3G/LTE PA modules use the legacy HBT
InGaP technology. Huntersun also provides power management chips for its RF front-end modules. The company is intent on moving to the 5G field, and
has developed a China-made BAW filter technology that it claims is ready for production.
• Vanchip (Weijie Chuangxin (Tianjin)) was founded by a former RFMD (Qorvo) employee. It develops PA modules for 2G, 3G, and 4G, using InGaP HBT
technology for PA. These PA modules are compliant with Mediatek SoC as well as Spreadtrum and Qualcomm SoC. MediaTek recently extended its share
inVanchip.
• CanaanTek develops antenna tuners, switches, and GNSS LNA
• Richwave develops connectivity modules and cellular components, and works with different technology platforms: RFSOI for cellular switches, advanced
CMOS for LNAs and SOI, and GaAs/SiGe for WiFi PA, LNA, and FEM. Richwave generated $85M in 2018 across its multiple market segments (IoT,
consumer automotive, and networking).
• Shoulder provides SAW filters and duplexers for multiple market segments, including mobile. The company covers up to 2.6 GHz with its SAW technology
(B7 & B41 are offered), and supplies firms like Xiaomi, Gionee, Meizu, and Lenovo.
• WillSemi develops RF switches on SOI, and GPS/LTE LNAs on bulk CMOS, from low to high-band
• AwinIC develops power management IC and RF devices (LTE and GPS LNA, as well as RF switches and PA for 2G)
• Yuzhen IC supplies MMMB PA modules to the mobile industry
• Airoha is a fabless company developing PA modules, LNA, and switches for the mobile industry.Airoha has been part of MediaTek Group since 2017.

38
RF FRONT-END - ECOSYSTEM
OSAT services
Handset device stage
5G modem
Discrete components Integrated modules
RF filter
Diplexer/multiplexer
PA
Antenna tuner
RF switch
LNA
RF component stage
Front-end module stage

39
FILTER AND DUPLEXER SUPPLY CHAIN
Multiple possible disruption paths
The classic RF
filter business
faces growing
competition
from fabless PA
companies
working hand-
in-hand with
design
companies
OEM
Stand-alone filter/duplexer Front-end module Filter/duplexer
Acoustic wave filter design IPD filter design
Filter foundry
OSAT
Fabless PA companies Semi foundry
Conventional
Disruptive

40
MOBILE RF - SUPPLY CHAIN AND MARKET SHARE
Key takeaways
The mobile RF
market’s supplier
rankings are well
established,and
5G should
further solidify
them. However,
some business
opportunities for
other companies
will happen.
• Apart from Apple’s 2018 growth (in value), only Chinese smartphone firms have shown growth: Huawei first, followed by
Oppo,Vivo, and Xiaomi
• The feature-phone business was stable in 2018 and is expected to remain so in the coming years
• Only the RF part is accounted for the following rankings (transceiver (sub-6 GHz) and modem are not included)
• 81% of the overall RF front-end & connectivity market is shared between the big five front-end players: Murata 26%,
Skyworks 21%, Broadcom 14%, Qorvo 13%, and Qualcomm 7%
• Broadcom, Skyworks and Qorvo dominate the PA module market, while Murata and Skyworks dominates the Diversity
module market. Murata also consolidates huge revenues thanks to its connectivity module business
• Qualcomm is continuously increasing its business. Mostly for the receive path, but it has also started earning design wins for
PA modules.
• The discrete component business is mostly Murata’s, which accounts for almost half of the filter business: far surpassing
Qorvo, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Taiyo Yuden, and Kyocera. Infineon and NXP are also doing well with supplying switches and
LNA to OEMs.
• Smaller players are emerging, i.e.Wisol and Maxscend, following design wins with Korean and Chinese OEMs
• Supply chain consolidation has waned, as the main players rarely acquire other companies. Infineon’s acquisition of Cypress is
the sole noteworthy deal in the last two years.
• Instead, RF front-end companies are building partnerships: for example, Skyworks and Qorvo have begun collaborating with
MediaTek to build an innovative 5G platform

41
5G SPECTRUM BANDWIDTH
Compared to LTE
C band (UHB) and
mmWave spectrum
provide the wide
bandwidth required
for 5G’s fast data
rate. Below 3 GHz,
5G will essentially
come from 3G/LTE
band re-farming,
augmented by low
to mid frequency
bands for
Supplementary
Uplink.
LTE
5G re-farming
LB
MB
HB
UHB
mm
Wave
LTE
5G re-farming
LTE
5G re-farming
5G NR
5G NR
300 MHz 600 MHz 2 GHz 7.4 GHz
Total
bandwidth
1.5 GHz
2 GHz
3 GHz
6 GHz
39 GHz
N77, N78, N79
N257
N258
N260
N261
N1, N66, N40, N7, N38, N41
N3, N2, N25, N39, N34, N70, N80
N71, N12, N28, N20, N5, N8
5G NR N81, N82, N83 (SUL)
5G NR N80, N86 (SUL)
5G NR N84 (SUL)
5G re-farming
5G NR
0.6 GHz

42
5G COMMERCIAL ROLLOUT - SUMMARY
Per licensed band’s rollout timeline
Global 5G-
band rollout
will be
heterogeneous
from the
beginning,
which could
favor
regionalization
- unlike LTE,
which was
more global
Timeline 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
N41
N261
N258
N260
N71
N12
N66
N2
N5
N41
N78
N79
N78
N28
N1
N20
N3
N7
N258
N258
N260
N78
N257
N257
N77
N79
N5
N28
N19
5G NR sub-6 GHz
5G NR mmWave
3G/LTE re-farming

43
5G SPECTRUM
Key takeaway
The process
of 5G
spectrum
licensing has
begun
enabling the
first
commercial
rollout’s
arrival
• 5G spectrum allocation has been arranged by the various national telecommunication entities (FCC,
MIIT, MIC, Betzna,Arcep, etc.)
• The first 5G spectrum auction happened in different parts of the globe in mid-2018, with network
operators receiving licenses to commercialize 5G
• In each location, the acquired spectrum enables carriers to significantly increase their ability to deliver a
high data rate. The U.S. has bet mainly on mmWave spectrum, and main carriers have bid on it. However,
low-band and mid-band spectrum are also being considered in order to ensure coverage. China is
focusing on sub-6 GHz for its initial rollout, as is Europe with the C band. South Korea has also started
5G using the C band, and has planned mmWave spectrum later on. Japan will rollout from 2020 on C
band and mmWave.
• Spectrum cost is significantly elevated compared to the LTE spectrum, which may result in a slow 5G
rollout
• After the preliminary bands rollout, 3G and LTE band re-farming will happen gradually, year over year

44
• The NSA 5G configuration, which will be the
mainstream configuration for at least a decade,
introduces higher complexity to the RF front-end
because of Dual Connectivity. Moreover, the devices still
must operate with CA on LTE, while adding the 5G
stream.
• New modules/components must be added on the RF
board:
• For 5G UHB (N77, N78, N79): at least four of
them on the reception path (4x4 MIMO) and
up to two of them on the transmit path
• For 5G HB (N41, N40, etc.): likely in 2x2
MIMO configuration, so a receive module and a
modified MB/HB PA module
• For 5G LB, since 3G/LTE band re-farming will
happen over time
• Every added band must be replicated in each module or
RF path to ensure the MIMO configuration is
maintained
• Antenna tuner, antenna switch, PA, LNA, filter, and
multiplexer will require optimizing in order to support
unprecedented bandwidth
5G’S IMPACT ON RF FRONT-END (SUB-6GHZ)
Where is the impact?
5G is
definitely
driving more
RF modules
and/or
components
than LTE-A
did
source: Qorvo

45
5G RF FRONT-END - SOLUTION
Regionalization or globalization?
The mobile phone
industry is divided
between sub-6
GHz and
mmWave, from
carrier to RF
front-end
suppliers. It might
not be possible to
provide globally-
compatible 5G
phones, as was the
case with LTE.
Complex PAMiD
Multiple PAs and switches
LNA
20 - 25 filters
MMMB PA
PAs and switches
Few filters
S10 5G
Korea
S10 5G
USA
5G design win 5G design win

46
RADIO ACCESS -TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
Key takeaway
5G combines
multiple radio
access
technologies
using Dual
Connectivity,
and common
techniques
already
employed with
LTE (CA,
MIMO)
• 5G specifications were frozen at the end of 2018. Further work is ongoing for enhancement of initial
technologies.
• 5G will allow multiple spectrum to be used: licensed, unlicensed and also shared
• The radio technology employed will be quite similar to LTE (CA and MIMO), and Dual Connectivity will
be added in the non-standalone mode
• Consequently, RF front-end will be even more complex with the addition of new components and
modules to ensure 5G streams for the different frequency bands and Dual Connectivity
• The RF front-end industry might have to adapt to market regionalization, given the spectrum
fragmentation in the world’s different regions
• 5G’s data rate is still far from multi-Gbps performance, then demanding applications such as AR/VR/XR
would have LTE-like performance
• WiFi connectivity has been rebranded. WiFi6 is the latest standard and already supported in flagship
phones.

47
• Filter and duplexer volume growth will remain high, supported by the LTE band as well as 5G
bands’ gradual implementation, 4x4 MIMO, and carrier-aggregation penetration rate
• Multiplexer and diplexer will also continue growing, since multiple radio streams will require
support at the same time to allow usage of multiple frequency-band segment combinations (LB, MB,
HB, UHB), and carrier aggregation to be applied on 5G
• 4x4 MIMO will be mandatory for 5G in the downlink direction, meaning four separate receive paths
for 5G signal.This will directly and positively impact the growth of LNA and LNA/Switch.
• 2x2 MIMO could be requested by operators in the uplink direction, meaning two separate paths for
5G signal. However, 2x2 MIMO in the uplink direction should only be considered in luxury phones.
Furthermore, additional PA will be required for the C band (3.5 GHz and above) and in the low
band for some cases (B71/N71 for instance), while 2G PA and 3G PA will continue phasing out.
Consequently, PA component growth will be moderate.
• With frequency-band combination continuously increasing, and antenna quantity limited by space
constraints in mobile phones, the need for antenna tuner will heighten
COMPONENT FORECAST
Key takeaway

48
FILTER TECHNOLOGY PORTFOLIO
Which technology for which 5G NR band?
Wideband
(necessary for
data-rate
improvement)
will be handled
by BAW and
FBAR
technologies,
along with
MLCC and IPD.
Thin-film SAW
technology will
also have
opportunities.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
900
600
500
200
100
75
50
25
10
SAW
TC SAW
Thin-film SAW
BAW SMR
FBAR
MLCC & IPD
N1
N2
N3
N5
N7
N28
N40
N41
N66
N71
N77
XBAR
N78
N79
N25
Bandwidth
(MHz)
Frequency (GHz)
XBAW

49
OVERALLWAFER START
By substrate type
• Overall LT/LN wafer start will grow moderately,
resulting from a low growth of SAW filter and
continuous die downsizing
• Despite BAW filter’s transition from 6” to 8”, 6”
silicon wafer start will remain stable thanks to the
thin-film acoustic wave wafer market (IHP SAW, for
instance)
• 8” silicon wafer aggregates the following functions:
filter, switch, tuner, LNA, and PA. Silicon wafer for
filter mostly explains silicon wafer’s large volume.
• 8” SOI wafer start will remain mainstream for
switches and antenna tuners, and will continue
growing
• 12” SOI wafer start will grow due to the
implementation of 4x4 MIMO on 5G NR, which will
lead to an increase of LNA and LNA/Switch devices
• 6” GaAs wafer start will grow slightly, with InGaP
HBT remaining the main technology for high-power
PA and PHEMT used for mmWave PA
• The mmW transceiver and power management
functions are excluded from this forecast

50
• InGaP HBT will remain the dominant technology for PA, leading to a slightly increasing number of
6” GaAs wafers
• SOI CMOS technology will further penetrate the LNA market, absorbing most of the market’s
advancement.This will result in strong growth of 12” SOI wafer start.
• SOI CMOS will remain the leading technology in the switches and antenna tuner market, which will
maintain a high number of 8” SOI wafers
• However, bulk CMOS will remain stable for switches, as not all OEMs are moving towards
integration for BoM optimization
• The available technology split for filter is widening gradually, with opportunities for thin-film SAW
technologies (i.e. IHP SAW) in low- to high-band frequency and for IPD technologies in ultra high-
band frequency. With the filter component continuing its rapid growth, wafer-size transition is
accelerating for wafers supporting SAW and BAW technologies.
COMPONENT TECHNOLOGY FORECAST
Key takeaway

Market Forecasts

52
MOBILE PHONE SEGMENTATION
< $100 < $250 < $500 < $750 > $750
J series A series S8,S9 S10
Note series
Y series Honor
series
P series Mate series
iPhone 6S
iPhone 7
iPhone XR
iPhone 8
iPhone XS
Non-exhaustive list of devices
Feature
phone
Entry-level
smartphone
Mid-tier
smartphone
High-end
smartphone
Luxury
smartphone

53
• Smartphone growth is uncertain due to the lack of
consumer interest. Smartphones are becoming less
attractive, and the renewal rate has slowed down while the
reconditioning market has developed. 5G is supposed to be
one of the key technologies that will bring innovation to
smartphones and revive consumer engagement.
• Geopolitical issues pertaining to the US-China trade war
make it harder to build a “forecast-per-phone” segment,
since market share for U.S. and Chinese brands could be
strongly affected
• In this complex context, we estimate moderate smartphone
growth (2% CAGR 2018 - 2025):
• We expect a progression in the luxury smartphone
segment, where 5G penetration will be stronger
• We project feature phone shipments to remain almost
stable (1% CAGR 2018 - 2023), since:
• Market traction comes from the Middle East, Africa,
India, and Asia
• Nokia branding and 4G technology integration has
revived this segment
• As a result, overall mobile phone shipments will flatten in
2019
• ASP is expected to increase, compensating for the lack of
volume growth
By segment

54
By air standard
• 5G phones entered the market in 2019 and show
a 72% CAGR from 2019 - 2025
• First shipments expected in the U.S., Korea, and
Japan
• In 2025, 5G phone shipments will represent 29%
of the market
• 5G mmWave phones should represent 13% of
5G phones by 2025
• 4G+ phone shipments represented the majority of
smartphone sales in 2018 (73%), spanning from
entry-level to luxury phones
• 4G+ phone shipments will suffer from the
pressure of 5G phones’ penetration rate
• 4G phone shipments will continue increasing,
expanding from the entry-level segment to the
feature phone segment
• As 4G progresses in the feature phone segment,
2G and 3G phones will continue decreasing

55
5G MOBILE PHONE
2019 releases
S10 5G
Mate X
Mate20 X
Mix3 5G
APEX 5G
Axon 10 Pro 5G
V50ThinQ 5G
Reno 5G
OnePlus 7 Pro 5G
Non exhaustive list of devices
mmWave
Mod 5G
US version mmWave
Korean version sub 6
Sub 6
Sub 6 (N78)
Sub 6 (N41)
Sub 6 (N77 / N78 / N79)
Sub 6 (N41/N77 / N78 / N79)
Sub 6 (N78) Sub 6 (N78) Sub 6 (N41 / N78 / N79)

56
MARKET FORECAST -YEAR-OVER-YEAR COMPARISON (1/3)
Mobile handset forecast, reevaluated in 2019
Before 2018, we
estimated a smartphone
market growth of 3.1%
from 2017 - 2023. This
year, we have reassessed
this growth down to
1.1% for the same
period, accounting for
the mobile market’s
decline in 2018.
Another gap is the
feature phone market,
which has been
reevaluated for 2019
and beyond.
Overall, this revised
2023 mobile volume
forecast is 17% lower
than the original
forecast.
• We have reevaluated our end-product unit sales estimate to account for the current smartphone market’s decline.
Given today’s geopolitical uncertainties and the lack of consumer interest for new phone models, we have also
lowered smartphone’s future growth potential from the 3.15% in our 2018 report, down to 1.07% in this 2019
report edition for the same forecast period (2017 - 2023). Moreover, we have reassessed our feature-phone volume
shipment estimate.
New baseline
Previous baseline
Mobile
handset
in
Mu

57
RF front-end market is lower in 2019, compared to previous report editions
In our previous
report, we
adopted a
“continuous
improvement”
philosophy in
order to develop
a more accurate
model
• Why has it changed?
• The volume of end-products has been lowered in this 2019 edition, the result of a mechanical effect on RF
front-end modules and components
• We have reassessed our “technology penetration” hypothesis:
• In our 2017 5G report, we considered an 8x8 MIMO penetration beyond 2020, thus overestimating
the RF content (by up to 2x more on certain components)
• From our 2018 report to the current edition, we have retreated to a 4x4 MIMO hypothesis best-
case for the downlink, thus significantly reducing the number of components
• However, our market estimate in the 2018 report was higher because we added WiFi/BT
connectivity-related RF content
• Finally, we significantly expanded our database of teardown analyses (50 teardowns, currently), which are
distributed to the four market segments we defined: from entry-level to luxury phones. In doing so, we are
able to more accurately define the RF front-end content and reevaluate the ASP for all components.
• We ended up fully redefining our model, which we believe is now more accurate
• To calibrate and double-check our model, we compared our market share estimates (taken from the
teardown analyses) to the financial results of multiple companies. In parallel, we conducted interviews with
numerous players in the RF front-end field.

58
The result, in $M
WiFi content added
Initial forecast
8x8 MIMO hypothesis
Smartphone/feature phone volume correction
+ MIMO hypothesis reassessed (4x4)
+ RF content - better description (50+ teardowns)
+ Component ASP re-evaluated (50+ teardowns)
Smartphone/feature phone
volume overestimated

59
TEARDOWN SAMPLE, PER MOBILE PHONE SEGMENT
An extensive teardown analysis
An extensive
cellphone teardown
was performed this
year by our sister
company, SystemPlus
Consulting.
This teardown
analysis was based on
the four defined
smartphone
segments, allowing us
to precisely
investigate the entry-
level phone
architectures where
discrete components
are favored for cost
reasons.
Huawei Nova4
iPhone XS Oppo F5
Samsung A9
Samsung S10
Xiaomi Mi8
Huawei P20 Vivo NEX

60
TEARDOWN SAMPLE, PER MOBILE PHONE OEM
An extensive teardown analysis
Teardown
analysis
selected
across 12
OEM brands,
taking market
share into
account

61
MOBILE RF MARKET - SEGMENTATION
Front-end & connectivity
The overall RF
market is divided
into two main
segments: RF front-
end, which
aggregates all of the
RF content
supporting cellular
technologies
(2G,3G,4G,5G), and
connectivity, which
includes WiFi,
Bluetooth, and geo-
localization
technologies
Main path
Diversity path
Rx
Rx
Tx
Tx
Rx
Rx

62
OVERALL MOBILE RF MARKET - FORECAST
By RF segment
• The RF market will grow at an 8% CAGR from
2018 - 2025, pushed mostly by the RF front-end
segment
• The RF front-end market represented 83% of the
RF market in 2018 for mobile handsets
• The RF front-end market is expected to further
increase at a 9% CAGR due to the additional
content brought by 5G (UHB MIMO 4x4 in DL,
2x2 UL in some cases, 5G band re-farming, and
dual connectivity) and to the penetration of high-
end 4G components like PAMiD
• The connectivity segment will grow at a 6%
CAGR with the introduction of the WiFi6
standard in the handset (Samsung S10 already
equipped, beginning in 2019) and to SiP modules’
penetration rate for the WiFi5 and WiFi6 standard

63
MOBILE RF MARKET - SEGMENTATION
Air standard
Air standard
segmentation
is quite
complex, since
multiple
generations
can be mixed
in a single
component
• Connectivity segmentation is pretty straightforward:
• Discrete filter, LNA, or module ensuring the geo-localization function is counted as GNSS
• Every component involved in 802.11n WiFi connectivity is counted asWiFi4
• Every component involved in 802.11acWiFi connectivity is counted asWiFi5
• Every component involved in 802.11axWiFi connectivity is counted asWiFi6
• Cellular front-end segmentation is more difficult, since multiple air standards can be aggregated in a
single component.Thus, the following segmentation is applied:
• Stand-alone 2G PAM are classified as 2G
• MMMB PA aggregating 2G/3G/4G, 2G/4G, and 3G/4G are counted as 3G/4G
• Components and modules ensuring 4G connectivity are counted as 3G/4G
• Components and modules ensuring 5G connectivity (LPAMiF, Drx FEM, LNA bank, discrete
switch, standalone filter, etc.), as well as 4G modules that include a 5G component (i.e. 5G PA,
filter… in a PAMiD) are counted as 5G

64
OVERALL MOBILE RF MARKET - FORECAST
By air standard
• The 2G components market will drop due to the
shutdown of this network in most global regions
• 3G/4G components represented 78% of the RF
front-end market, generating $11.6B. However, future
growth will be low (2% CAGR) since 5G will capture
market value with new content integration in the
handset (UHB, band re-farming, and dual
connectivity).
• In 2019, 5G will start generating revenue for the RF
front-end market, growing at a 61% and 72% CAGR
for sub-6 GHz and mmWave frequencies,
respectively
• In the connectivity segment, WiFi6 will take market
share from WiFi5, while WiFi4 will remain stable for
low-end mobile phones
• The GNSS market will progress (7% CAGR) due to
the introduction of a dual-band geo-localization
solution (L1+L5) and the generalization of front-end
modules for this feature

65
FRONT-END & CONNECTIVITY ARCHITECTURE - STATUS AND TRENDS
By major OEM
Apple and Samsung
high-end and luxury
phones are highly
integrated, which is
not the case for
Huawei’s models.
Oppo,Vivo, and
Xiaomi are not
much integrated
either.These four
brands, driving as
much volume as
Apple and Samsung,
will favor a discrete
approach for
continued growth.
Discrete Integrated
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Integration scale

66
RF FRONT-END ARCHITECTURE
Different possibilities for LTE
RF front-end comes
in various forms in
mobile phones.
Integrated
architectures
enable the best
performance and
board optimization,
and simplify the
assembly for the
OEM. Meanwhile,
the discrete
approach is the
path for BoM
optimization.
Integrated
Transceiver
Main
Diversity
Discrete
PA1
LNA
Rx Filter 1
Antenna
Switch
1
Duplexer 1
Tx Filter 1
Tx/Rx
Switch
n
Antenna
Switch
n
Duplexer n
Tx Filter n
Rx Filter n
Tx/Rx
Switch
1
PAn
Cross
Switch
Mplexer 1
Mplexer n
Transceiver
Main
Diversity
Rx Filter 1
Rx Filter n
LNA
Rx
Switch
Antenna
Switch
Rx Filter 1
Rx Filter n
LNA
Rx
Switch
Antenna
Switch
Rx Filter 1
Rx Filter n
LNA
Rx
Switch
Antenna
Switch
PA1
LNA
Rx Filter 1
Antenna
Switch
1
Duplexer 1
Tx Filter 1
Tx/Rx
Switch
n
Antenna
Switch
n
Duplexer n
Tx Filter n
Rx Filter n
Tx/Rx
Switch
1
PAn
Cross
Switch
Mplexer 1
Mplexer n
PA1
LNA
Rx Filter 1
Antenna
Switch
1
Duplexer 1
Tx Filter 1
Tx/Rx
Switch
n
Antenna
Switch
n
Duplexer n
Tx Filter n
Rx Filter n
Tx/Rx
Switch
1
PAn
Cross
Switch
Mplexer 1
Mplexer n
LNA
Rx Filter 1
Rx Filter n
Rx
Switch
Antenna
Switch
LNA
Rx Filter 1
Rx Filter n
PA1
Rx Filter 1
Duplexer 1
Tx Filter 1
Antenna
Switch
n
Duplexer n
Tx Filter n
Rx Filter n
Tx/Rx
Switch
Cross
Switch
Mplexer 1
Mplexer n
PAn

67
INTEGRATED CASE - A MAJORITY OF MODULES ON SAMSUNG S10
Discrete part (single die)
Module (RF SiP)

68
DISCRETE CASE - A MAJORITY OF DISCRETE ON HUAWEI P20 PRO
Discrete part (single die)
Module (RF SiP)

69
RF FRONT-END ARCHITECTURE
What is 5G’s impact?
5G is likely to add 1
uplink stream (two in
the case of 2x2 MIMO),
meaning an additional
PA module (or two)
with filters, switch, and
potentially LNA. Also,
four downlink data
streams, meaning four
LNA, switches, and
filters. Tuner count will
also be increased to
enable each stream’s
antenna optimization.
Plus, additional
components will be
integrated in LTE
modules, or added
alongside LTE
components.
2G PAM
3G/LTE/5G LB PAM
Wi-Fi/BT module
3G/LTE/5G PAM MHB
Diversity receive
Diversity receive
Diversity receive
GPS module
Multiplexer
CA
Antennaplexer
MIMO
LTE Baseband
Modem
Transceiver
PMIC
Enveloppe
Tracker
mmWave AiP
5G baseband
modem
May be integrated
4x4
MIMO
DL
LNA
Filter
LNA
PA Filter
Filter
Filter
Tuner
Tuner
Tuner
Tuner
May be shared
2x2
MIMO
DL
Diversity receive
Diversity receive
Diversity receive
LNA
Filter
Filter
LTE 5G
5G PAM UHB
In case of an integrated architecture 5G’s Impact on RF Front-End Module and Connectivity for Cell phones 2019 | Report | www.yole.fr | ©2019

70
FRONT-END & CONNECTIVITY - MARKET FORECAST
Per component location and phone segment
• The FEM category includes PA modules, receive
modules, WiFi modules, and more, while the discrete
category includes the remaining standalone
components (filters, switches, tuners, etc.)
• In the luxury and high-end segments, FEM
implementation is mainstream, since it provides
optimized performance and small form factor
simultaneously. But this approach comes with a cost,
and brands like Huawei, Oppo, and Vivo, which are
gaining prominence in the mobile phone world, will
favor discrete implementation - especially for the
receive path. This will result in a substantial increase
in the discrete approach.
• Xiaomi is positioning in the mid-tier segment, moving
from a discrete to an FEM architecture. The aim is to
close the gap with Samsung, LG, and ZTE. In this
segment, FEM implementation will be the main trend.
• For entry-level phones and feature phones moving to
4G, discrete implementation will lead since it
provides a cost-efficient solution for radio access

71
FRONT-END & CONNECTIVITY - MARKET FORECAST
By component location
• RF module represents the major part of the RF
front-end market. Multiple modules partake in this
component family, including PAMiD, MMMB PA,
diversity-receive module, and WiFi FEM, as well as
5G modules, which will generate most of the
growth. From $10.5B, the RF module market is
expected to almost double, reaching $18B.
• However, many discrete components can be found
on an RF board, even a high-end one. For example,
discrete RF components represent 8% of the BoM
in a Samsung S10+. The discrete RF component
market was $4.5B (30% of TAM) in 2018, and
should remain an important part of the RF front-
end market even with 5G’s introduction, since it is
possible to use LNA banks, external switches,
filters, and multiplexers to build a 5G phone.
However, the pain-point will be on the
performance side.

72
FRONT-END MODULE - DESCRIPTION
Many choices
The front-end
module market is
segmented into
eight module
types, ranging
from simple to
the most
complex. Front-
end modules
simplify the RF
board
architecture
while improving
performance.
Integration density and complexity
LNA
Duplexer
Filter
Switches
PA
PMIC
LNA Filter
Switches
PA
PMIC
Filter
Switches
PA
PMIC
Switches
PA
PMIC
PA
PMIC
PMIC
Transceiver
and RF
PA
Antennas
Filter
Switches
LNA
Filter
Switches

73
FRONT-END MODULE - FORECAST
By module type
• Module market growth will benefit PAMiD, Drx
FEM, UHB power amplifier and LPAMiF
• PAMiD will further increase in complexity and
value due to the integration of additional high-end
co-existence filters for band re-farming
• The introduction of LPAMiF modules and
additional Drx FEM for the transmit-and-receive
of ultra high-frequency signals will add RF content
and market value to the RF front-end
• Given RF board-space allocation for these new
components, the LTE front-end module market
(antenna switch and filter module) will decrease

74
FRONT-END MODULE - FORECAST
mmWave AiP 5G
• 5G mmWave service started in the U.S. in 2019,
with Japan and Korea also being early-adopter
countries. However, there will only be a limited
number of other markets.
• Right now there are limited use-cases for 5G
mmWave, and coverage is restricted to dense
urban areas. Even though we believe this market
segment will be limited to certain nascent markets
in the coming years, we expect these to reach
$1.3B by 2025.
• mmWave AiP modules are integrated in the 2019
Samsung S10 5G US version, and in the Moto Mod
5G
• Qualcomm is the AiP module supplier for the
aforementioned phones

75
DISCRETE COMPONENT - DESCRIPTION
The front-end
discrete market is
segmented into seven
main components.
With discrete, it is
possible to build
complex phones at
the cost of RF board
space, but in an
overall cost-effective
way.
The pain-point is
performance.
Ultimately, It is a
matter of
cost/performance
trade-off for the
OEM.
LNA
Rx
Switch
Antenna
Switch
Duplexer n
Tx Filter n
Rx Filter 1
Cross
Switch
Mplexer n
Diplexer
Tuner
Rx Filter n
Tuner
From
PA
module
LNA
Rx
Switch
Antenna
Switch
Rx Filter 1
Rx Filter n
Antenna 1
Antenna 2
Frequency
range1
Frequency
range2

76
DISCRETE RF COMPONENT - MARKET FORECAST
By component type
• In 2018, the filter segment (including filter,
duplexer, multiplexer, and diplexer) held 68% of
the discrete component market
• Multiplexer will represent the largest market
growth, at 20%. 5G NR UHB introduction will lead
to the implementation of high-end RF signal
filtering to enable 5G and 4G carrier aggregation.
• The second type of component benefiting from
5G’s rollout is the LNA. Since 4x4 MIMO DL will
be required for 5G NR UHB, additional LNA
banks will be implemented on RF boards for the
discrete architecture approach.
• As 5G will induce more complex carrier
aggregation scenarios and higher frequency,
antenna efficiency will be increasingly challenged
for LTE. Thus the antenna-tuning market will be
critical, and grow at a 13% CAGR.

77
CONNECTIVITY COMPONENT - DESCRIPTION
Connectivity
components
range from the
simplest
discrete
approach to
the deepest
integration of
SoC and RF
components
Integration density, complexity, and performance
SoC PA
SoC
SoC
LNA
Filter
Switch
PA
LNA
Filter
Switch
LNA Filter
LNA
Filter
LNA
Filter
Switch
SoC

78
CONNECTIVITY MODULE - FORECAST
By module type
• WiFi FEM represented the largest share of the
2018 connectivity market, with $1.9B (including
the SoCWiFi chipset)
• The introduction of LAA and the WiFi6
generation will favor WiFi FEM penetration rate,
especially in high-end and luxury phones. WiFi
FEM should reach $2.9B by 2025.
• Connectivity FEM market will enable the Mid Tier
segment migration toWiFi6
• The WiFi SoC market is provided “for
“information only” and includes pure SoC
architecture

79
• The overall mobile RF market will grow at an 8% CAGR, reaching $25.8B by 2025
• Cellular front-end should remain the biggest market, with $21.9B expected by 2025
• The connectivity market will continue growing at a slightly slower pace than cellular, and should
reach $3.8B
• The 5G front-end market should reach $8.3B by 2025, exhibiting the highest CAGR (61%) because
the technology is rolling out and will gradually be implemented in mobile phones
• The front-end market should remain split into two architectural families: integrated and discrete
• Integrated architecture will remain the mainstream in the luxury and high-end segments for Apple,
Samsung, and various other low-volume brands (i.e. LG, Sony, ZTE, OnePlus)
• Despite the efforts of RF front-end players to offer entry-level modules, discrete architecture will
remain an important fraction for entry-level and mid-tier phones and also for high-end phones from
Huawei, Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi. This strategy enables differentiation and a lower BoM, and also
supports Chinese semiconductor tech companies (HiSilicon, Spreadtrum/RDA, Maxscend, etc.)
while reducing module supplier dependence.
MARKET FORECAST
Key takeaway

Unit Component Forecasts

81
OVERALL RF COMPONENT -VOLUME FORECAST
By function
• Overall RF component volume growth will be 9%
from 2018 - 2025
• Multiplexer, filter, duplexer, and diplexer
components represent the largest volume and will
double from 2018 - 2025, reaching more than
100B units to support 5G NR bands’ filtering,
routing, and carrier aggregation
• 5G will boost the need for LNA to comply with
4x4 MIMO DL requirements, either in discrete
configuration or in module. LNA/Switch
components will gain momentum over separate
LNA and Switch configurations, for better
integration in compact Drx FEM.
• Switch’s volume growth will be the slowest
amongst the different components since no
additional switches, no matter how complex, will
be required in PAMiD. Also, LNA/Switch will be
used in Drx FEM.

82
RF FILTER -VOLUME FORECAST
By board location
• A focus on filter components highlights a balanced
mix of discrete vs. in-module filter configuration in
2018
• However, 5G phone rollout will lead to more in-
module filter integration, with 5G filter
incorporation in PAMiD, PAMiF, LPAMiF, and Drx
FEM, thus helping to meet the stringent loss-
performance requirement while reducing RF
board area.
• Filter integration also occurs in the connectivity
segment, with WiFi 2.4 GHz coexistence filter
integration in WiFi FEM and connectivity FEM.
GNSS filter integration has also started in
connectivity FEM.

83
SWITCH & LNA -VOLUME FORECAST
By board location
• LNA and Switch, integrated in module,
represented 56% of total volume in 2018. Most
luxury and high-end phones are built using
integrated front-end modules. LNA in module
integration will grow slightly faster than its
discrete implementation.
• In discrete, LNA and Switch are generally left for
entry-level and mid-tier phones. However, certain
brands such as Huawei, Vivo, Oppo, and Xiaomi
will also favor the discrete approach - and the use
of discrete LNA/LNA bank together with switches
- thus driving a large discrete component volume
of almost half the front-end component total.

84
PA -VOLUME FORECAST
By board location
• The PA component volume required in PAM will
decrease, given the 2G network’s shutdown.
However, 4G PA can be found in PAM - especially
for the TDD band in the Chinese market.
• PA volume for WiFi FEM and connectivity FEM
will slightly increase due to LAA technology’s
penetration rate
• PA’s volume increase in PAMiD is due to the move
from separate mid-band and high-band modules to
integrated mid/high-band modules. For example,
there are four PA in an MB/HB PAMiD for an
iPhone XS or Samsung S9.
• The largest PA volume growth will come from
PAMiF and LPAMiF, with HB and UHP PA for 5G
NR
• mmWave should also contribute to PA’s volume
increase, since we forecast that next-generation
AiP will certainly embed an additional PA to meet
power consumption and output power
requirements

85
• Filter and duplexer volume growth will remain rapid, supported by LTE band as well as 5G band’s
gradual implementation, 4x4 MIMO, and carrier aggregation penetration rate
• Multiplexer and diplexer will also continue their notable growth, since multiple radio streams will
require simultaneous support in order to allow usage of multiple frequency-band segment
combinations (LB, MB, HB, UHB), and carrier aggregation to be applied on 5G
• 4x4 MIMO will be mandatory for 5G in the downlink direction, meaning four separate receive paths
for 5G signal.This will directly and positively impact LNA and LNA/Switch growth.
• 2x2 MIMO could be requested by operators in the uplink direction, meaning two separate paths for
5G signal. However, 2x2 MIMO in the uplink direction should only be considered for luxury phones.
Furthermore, additional PA will be required for the C band (3.5 GHz and above) and in the low
band for some cases (i.e. B71/N71), while 2G PA and 3G PA will continue phasing out. As a result,
PA component growth will be moderate.
• With frequency-band combination continuously increasing, and the number of antennae limited by
mobile phone’s space constraints, the need for antenna tuner will continue growing
COMPONENT FORECAST
Key takeaway

ComponentTechnology and
Wafer Forecasts

87
PA -VOLUME FORECAST
By technology split
• HBT InGaP remains the main PA technology for
handsets. It has the best performance and size
tradeoff, and can be found in every PAMiD and
MMMB PA. Main front-end players use this
technology in their PA modules. Market growth will
come from UHB PA for 5G.
• SiGe PA can be found mainly in WiFi and connectivity
FEM. SiGe PA growth will be directly linked to WiFi
and connectivity FEM growth.
• GaAs PHEMT technology used to be implemented in
old-generation WiFi FEM, and is likely to be used for
additional mmW AiP PA. Consequently, it will grow at
a 29% CAGR.
• CMOS PA can be found in PA modules on feature
phones. Huntersun supplies this component type, but
the 2G network’s shutdown will phase out this
technology.
• SOI PA will be implemented in WiFi FEM for 2.4 GHz
WiFi and BT

88
LNA -VOLUME FORECAST
By technology split
• SiGe is one of the dominant technologies for
LNA, used mainly for discrete architecture and in
a few front-end modules
• SOI platform is the other dominant technology
for LNA, and will take more share in front-end
modules - especially with LNA/Switch’s integrated
die capability
• GaAs PHEMT technology is used for LNA in many
WiFi FEM. It can also be found in some cellular
FEM when size constraint is a major concern.
• CMOS is the latest platform used for LNA, mainly
for GNSS connectivity in entry-level phones

89
SWITCHES -VOLUME FORECAST
By technology split
• Global switch volume will grow at a 4% CAGR
• SOI is the main technology platform for switch, and
will remain so. SOI, which enables integration of
switches in modules, will continue growing at a 3%
CAGR.
• The CMOS platform represents 10% of the market
and is often used for external switching (antenna
switch, cross-switch, or Tx/Rx switch). Since a
significant percentage of the market won’t go
through integration, CMOS platform is likely to keep
a significant market share.
• GaAs PHEMT switches are still found in some
connectivity modules, mainly in entry-level phones.
We expect PHEMT switch volume to remain stable.
• So far, MEMS switch has not been implemented in the
handset. We expect a few design wins for the entry-
level market, where there are few or no LNA
incorporated. In this case, MEMS switch could help
improve RF performance.

90
ANTENNA TUNER -VOLUME FORECAST
By technology split
• Global antenna tuner volume will grow at a 13%
CAGR, with the implementation of 5G (NR and
dual connectivity) and given the fact that allocated
space for antenna is limited
• SOI is the main technology platform for antenna
tuner, and will grow at a 14% CAGR
• CMOS platform is often used for Samsung’s mid-
tier phones, and we expect its volume to remain
stable
• MEMS antenna tuners can be found in some
entry-level phones, i.e. Meizu. We expect MEMS
antenna tuner to further expand in volume for the
entry-level phone segment, since it offers a good
compromise for not increasing the BoM for the
rest of the front-end.
• PTIC complements the SOI platform in the design
of certain Huawei and Xiaomi phones. PTIC is an
interesting alternative for players that need to
avoid having a dozen antenna tuner devices.

91
FILTER -VOLUME FORECAST
By technology split
• SAW is the dominant technology in the RF front-end, but SAW filter’s
growth will be low due to the penetration of other technologies
targeting the high-performance filter needed for 5G NR
• TC-SAW is used for challenging duplexer specifications in PAMiD, and
will remain a suitable technology here. We also expect TC-SAW to
expand for LTE/5G coexistence filters.
• Thin-film SAW (i.e. IHP SAW) is the new forthcoming technology
that will grow the most, since it is a good tradeoff between
performance and cost. Challenging bands such as B7 duplexer and
B25/66 quadplexer can be addressed with this technology. Thin-film
SAW will extend the bandwidth capability of SAW filter while
enabling better temperature-compensated behavior and further filter
integration.
• BAW technology (from Qorvo, Qualcomm/RF360, and others) will
grow with the introduction of 5G NR bands with steep out-of-band
rejection requirements
• FBAR technology will also increase its share because it remains the
best choice for high-performance multiplexers, filters, and duplexers.
The technology is capable of tackling the 5G NR UHB (N78, N79).
Alternative technologies like XBAR from Resonant can even support
band N77 and be scaled up higher in frequency.
• IPD filters are used as diplexers, GPS band-pass filters, and GSM low-
pass filters. This is a straightforward solution for high frequency with
wide bandwidth (i.e. band N77), which will be implemented by OEMs
looking at “good enough” integrated solutions.
• MLC filter is used mainly for diplexer and high-pass WiFi filters. It will
also be used for bands N77, N78, N79, especially from vertically-
integrated players like Murata.

92
WAFER START FOR POWER AMPLIFIER
By substrate type
• HBT InGaP built on GaAs 6” substrate represents
the main wafer-start volume and is expected to
grow substantially, due to the implementation of
5G NR UHB PA
• Still on GaAs 6” substrate, we expect PHEMT PA
to represent 132 kw/y by 2025, cumulating WiFi
FEM for 5 GHz and PA for mmWave AiP
• SiGe and CMOS PA are aggregated in 8” silicon
wafer start. From 46 kw/y in 2018, this should
drop down to 39 kw/y. SiGe BiCMOS will remain
a legacy technology for WiFi PA, while we expect
that CMOS PA, currently used for 2G feature
phones, will decrease following the 2G network
shutdown.
• SOI PA will generate 5 kw/y by 2025 for BT PA
andWiFi FEM

93
WAFER START FOR LOW-NOISE AMPLIFIER
By substrate type
• SiGe and CMOS LNA are aggregated in silicon
wafer start, and SiGe represents the vast majority
of silicon-based LNA. We expect silicon wafer to
grow moderately, thanks to the implementation of
4x4 MIMO on diversity-receive.
• SOI 8” wafer start for LNA is expected to
convert into SOI 12”, due to the integration of
LNA with switch. More advanced technology
nodes are available at 12” SOI foundries. With SOI
8” capacity overloaded by switch and tuner, SOI
12” should be further adopted. However, the
supply chain for 12” high-resistivity bulk could be
a limiting factor.
• GaAs wafer start for PHEMT LNA is expected to
decrease, given SOI 12” penetration

94
WAFER START FOR SWITCHES
By substrate type
• Only a few GaAs wafers are still started for
switches. Most of the time, it is used by players
who only have access to this technology.
• Silicon wafer start for switches aggregate CMOS
and MEMS switches. Both technologies will grow
markedly in the mid-tier and entry-level markets.
• SOI wafer start, which represents more than 90%
of the wafers used for switches, will remain the
dominant substrate
• SOI 8” for switches is mainstream, though some
players use 12” SOI

95
WAFER START FOR TUNER
By substrate type
• Note: PTIC technology is not included in this wafer
forecast because it uses BST material deposition
• Two main substrates are used for antenna tuners
• As for switches, silicon substrate aggregates
CMOS and MEMS tuner. This substrate type will
capture more market in entry-level and mid-tier
phones.
• SOI 8” will remain the major substrate type used
for antenna tuning

96
WAFER START FOR FILTER
By substrate type
• LT/LN wafer start aggregates SAW, TC-SAW, and
thin-film SAW such as IHP SAW. 5” LT/LN wafer
proportion will decrease with the conversion to 6”.
For more details on LT/LN, please see slides 215 and
216.
• Silicon 6” wafer start aggregates BAW and thin-film
SAW filter. 6” BAW filter wafer is transitioning to 8”
BAW filter, whereas IHP SAW and other bonding
technologies will remain at 6” due to the availability
of LT and LT’s 6” maximum size.
• Silicon wafer start includes 8” BAW wafer filter,
FBAR technology (two wafers needed), and IPD filter
(8” HR silicon). This wafer start segment will grow,
with most of its growth coming from high-
performance filters for 5G NR with BAW and FBAR.
• Glass substrate wafer start’s increase is due to the
growing content of high-performance IPD filters for
5G NR UHB, which are not manageable by acoustic-
wave filter technology (N77)

97
OVERALLWAFER START
By substrate type
• Overall LT/LN wafer start will grow moderately, due
to SAW filter’s low growth along with continuous die
downsizing
• 6” silicon wafer start will also remain stable (despite
BAW filter’s transition from 6” to 8”), thanks to the
thin-film acoustic wave wafer market (i.e. IHP SAW)
• 8” silicon wafer aggregates all of the following
functions: filter, switch, tuner, LNA, and PA. Silicon
wafer for filter mostly explains silicon wafer’s large
volume.
• 8” SOI wafer start will remain mainstream for
switches and antenna tuners, and will continue
growing
• 12” SOI wafer start will grow due to the
implementation of 4x4 MIMO on 5G NR. This will
lead to an increase of LNA and LNA/Switch devices.
• 6” GaAs wafer start will grow slightly. InGaP HBT
will remain the main technology for high-power PA
and PHEMT used for mmWave PA.
• mmW transceiver and power management function
are excluded from this forecast

98
• InGaP HBT will remain the dominant technology for PA, leading to a slightly growing number of 6”
GaAs wafers
• SOI CMOS technology will further penetrate the LNA market, absorbing most of the market’s
growth.This will result in high growth for 12” SOI wafer start.
• SOI CMOS technology will remain the leading technology for switches and the antenna tuner
market, which will maintain a high number of 8” SOI wafers
• However, bulk CMOS will remain stable for switches as not all OEMs are moving towards
integration for BoM optimization
• The available technology split for filter is widening a little bit more, with opportunities for thin-film
SAW technologies (i.e. IHP SAW) in low- to high-frequency bands and for MLC and IPD
technologies in ultra-high band frequency. With filter components growing rapidly, wafer size
transition is accelerating: from 5” to 6” for wafers supporting SAW technologies, and from 6” to 8”
for wafers supporting BAW technologies.
COMPONENT TECHNOLOGY FORECAST
Key takeaway

MarketTrends

5G Mobile RFFE - General
Market Dynamics

101
GLOBAL MOBILE DATATRAFFIC
Mobile data
traffic showed no
signs of slowing
down in 2018,
and is expected
to increase 5X:
from 27
EB/month to 136
EB/month by
2024. In fact, 5G
will handle 25%
of mobile data
traffic by 2024.
5X
Traffic today
source: Ericsson Mobility report 2018, modified byYole

102
5G MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS (1/2)
4G will remain
the dominant
technology in
2024. However,
5G mobile
subscriptions
will begin in
2019 and are
expected to
take off in
2021.
source: Ericsson Mobility report 2018
This 5G penetration scenario
will lead to a maximum of 1.5
Bunits (cumulative) 5G
smartphone sales from 2019 -
2024

103
5G MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS (2/2)
Most 5G
subscriptions
will occur in
the USA,
Canada, China,
Japan, Korea,
andWestern
Europe
source: Ericsson Mobility report 2018

104
5G-ENABLED APPLICATIONS
Which application can accelerate 5G’s adoption?
5G network
capacity
enables use-
cases and
secures
challenging
use-cases for
LTE
source: GSMA
• As of today, emerging applications
require ultra-high bandwidth, very low
latency, or both
• AR/VR and tactile internet are
incumbent applications that would
require 5G high-throughput and low
latency
• Multi-person video calling and real-time
gaming are at the edge of LTE capability,
and could be added to the list of
potential 5G applications
• As of now, LTE can handle video
streaming. However, with mobile data-
traffic continuously expanding, and LTE
network capacity finite (spectrum is a
limited resource), 5G will eventually be
required to complement LTE capacity.

105
5G USE-CASES - INVENTED BY OPERATORS, PUSHED BY THE INDUSTRY
For consumers
5G use-cases are
invented by
operators and the
industry to attract
consumer interest.
Gaming and XR
cases would attract
a limited number of
early adopters,
while stadium and
multi video-call
cases are more
likely to attract a
larger number of
consumers.
Camp Nou - FC Barcelona
Dozens of 5G stadiums and venues
are flourishing worldwide, and
operators are leveraging them in
order to introduce 5G at the
consumer level
Cloud gaming could be a driving force
for 5G rollout, since it would remove
the need for high-performance on-
device computing and graphic chipset,
thus resulting in a less expensive
device. Google is eyeing this market,
with the introduction of its Stadia
cloud gaming platform this year.
The Light XR viewer headset is
developing fast. 5G makes it possible to
power the viewer with only the mobile
handset, making XR more affordable and
convenient at the consumer level.
Numerous real-time, fluid multi-video call
demonstrations have staged in the past
months.This use-case could well be the
main driving force for 5G adoption by
consumers.

106
BEYOND HIGH-QUALITYVIDEO AND REAL-TIME APPLICATIONS
High-quality
video still drives
demand for
enhanced
bandwidth and
peak data rates.
Also,AR/VR,
cloud gaming, and
multi-person
video call
applications will
push the need
for a 5G
network.
0,001
0,01
0,1
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Peak
data
rate
(Mbps)
Voice
Data
Music
SD video
HD video
UHD/4k video
Tactile internet
AR/VR
Multi-person video call
Cloud gaming
Hologram call?
CDMA
GPRS
UMTS
HSPA
LTE
LTE Pro
LTE-A
8k video
We are here

107
5G - REVENUE FOR OPERATORS
No longer just consumer-based
Consumer is no
longer the single
driving force for 5G
rollout. Network
operators are
looking to diversify
their business
activity across
multiple market
segments, but they
will compete for
consumer
subscriptions for
5G service.
• Operators continue exploring new use-cases (real-time video, live stadium, AR, VR, etc.) to
attract customers in the consumer field
• However, most operators are now focusing on the enterprise segment, where they see
more potential for 5G to deliver value
• Typical investigated fields include automotive, public transport, energy monitoring,
industrial, and healthcare
source: GSMA

108
5G - COMMERCIAL AVAILABILITY
Worldwide 5G launches (network present, and device commercially available)
Who is
winning the 5G
race?
Switzerland,
South Korea,
Kuwait, and
Monaco!
Small countries
with sufficient
financial
resources.
source: Ookla, as of July 19

109
5G - ROLLOUT IN CHINA
Roadmap
China has long
prepared for 5G.
A commercial
launch will
commence in
2020, supported
by massive
investment from
the Chinese
government. 5G
consumer
adoption will be
limited by rollout
speed.
source: GSMA
Early 5G network to be used as a hot
spot in China, with carriers carefully
analyzing demand before rolling out

110
Focus on Huawei ban or Trump’s political dilemma: the controversy of “America First”
A Huawei ban will
have negative
consequences for
the U.S. and
European
economies, while
reinforcing China’s
ecosystem and
giving more
opportunities to
Japanese firms. U.S.
suppliers could lose
more than $ - they
could also lose
their leadership.
National
security
threat.
Ban!
I want to be
reelected in 18
months.
Lift the Ban!
Extracted from our market-share projection
Direct Indirect

111
Review of hypothesis, and possible scenario
What could
happen if
Huawei’s ban
extended
beyond 3 - 6
months?We
review a
hypothesis and
possible
scenario
• The first short-term consequence would be U.S. component and module suppliers having to scrap their consigned parts, due
to the time elapsed since manufacture
• In parallel, U.S. front-end module makers would need to secure and qualify new design wins in order to mitigate the ban’s
effect. And in the case of a ban removal, the need for RF front-end module volume from Huawei would be lower, since
Huawei’s sales would inevitably have dropped in the meantime. This would be a double penalty for U.S. RF front-end module
makers.
• European suppliers could also indirectly suffer from the ban. Even if they are allowed to ship parts, Huawei’s mobile phone
volumes would have dropped due to Google’s announcement for access to Android’s full version and updates.
• During the ban period, Huawei would likely accelerate its backup plans for its RF front-end chips, with internal facilities
(HiSilicon) and fabless companies/foundries in China. Huawei could also use Japanese companies for RF parts supply.
• If the backup plan succeeds, Huawei will have secured its independence and could recover its “pre-ban” growth rate.
Obviously, prior to restoring this growth, Huawei would need to solve many challenges: SoC design without ARM, develop
and impose an alternative to Android, etc. Nothing is impossible though: for example, Amazon never penetrated China, and
thus Alibaba was born.
• In any case, Huawei will definitely be supported by the Chinese government
• From our prospective market-share estimation, the ban could cost the US front-end module maker up to $350M worst-case
in 2019, and $400M in 2020
• Skyworks and Qorvo have already revised their estimates for Q1-2019, at ($60M) and ($50M) respectively
• The long-term consequences would be more serious for Skyworks and Qorvo, since they would eventually lose Huawei’s
business

112
What would happen if the trade war drags on?
Theoretically, the
trade war could
end up simply
“hurting” Apple
instead of
“killing” Huawei.
Also, Samsung
could have an
unexpected
chance to
maintain its
leadership in the
long-term.
• Everything is about market balance, and the consumer has
the clue
• Huawei is struggling to give consumers confidence regarding
Android access. The P20 Pro and the P30 family will have
access to Android Q (the 10th generation of Google’s OS).
• Meanwhile, Huawei is finalizing the development of
HongMeng, its own OS, for launch at the end of 2019
• Oppo, Xiaomi and Vivo are already testing HongMeng
• HongMeng would be another Chinese alternative to US
services - just like Alibaba with Amazon
• The scenario provided here supposes that HongMeng’s
market introduction will be successful 18 months after start
(the OS is said to be faster than Android). It also supposes
that consumers in China will neglect Apple and switch to
Samsung during the transition period, with Huawei losing
market share in Europe short-term. Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo
will continue to progress, unless another ban is imposed by
the US Commerce dept.
• China being a bigger market than the US, the trade war
would probably hurt Apple more than Huawei in the long-
term
• A similar conflict is occurring in India, another big market
that could become even harder for Apple to penetrate
• Samsung could be the short-term winner and Apple the long-
term loser, while Huawei would regain strength after solving
its OS problem

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