My Winter outlook is available on this Powerpoint presentation. Enjoy! Any questions and comments will be appreciated.

1. Winter 2011-12 Forecast
Will it be cold and snowy
Or
Will it be warm and dry?

2. La Nina
1. Weak-Mod. La Nina across the Equatorial Pacific continues. I expect it too continue through out Winter
peaking between -0.7 and -1.3 on the ONI.
2. -PDO continues to rage on in the Pacific and I expect the PDO to continue its negative phase through out
Winter.
3. +AMO across the Atlantic continues but notice it isn’t overly warm. I expect the AMO to continue its
warm phase through Winter but some Climate Models suggest a Weak –AMO next year? I don’t expect it
have any significant effect though.

3. SST Comparisons
2010 2011
Now last year ATM we had a Moderate-Strong La Nina going on compared to Weak-Moderate
this year. Notice we have a deeply negative PDO this year like last year along with a +AMO
across the Atlantic but notice it was much warmer last year than this year? SST’s are much
cooler however this year than last year along with slightly different North Atlantic SST
anomalies.

4. SST comparisons continued
2008 2011
Notice this year we have a much stronger Nina but the PDO index and the GOA index is very
similar to this year. AMO was similar in some ways but we can notice a –AMO starting to take
shape in 2008 with cooling anomalies across Western Europe/Africa with different North
Atlantic SST anomalies. Pacific wise it compares nicely.

5. Weak-Mod. La Nina’s
Typical Weak-Moderate La Nina’s as shown above, often mean warmer than
normal temp. anomalies across SE USA and SW USA with below normal
temperature anomalies across the NE, GL’s region, towards the Plains and
much of Western Canada. Storm track can vary yearly however.

6. Highly Negative PDO/La Nina Winters
Most highly negative PDO Winters along with –ENSO featured above normal temp.
anomalies across most of Southern United States and below normal temp. anomalies
across the NE, GL’s region and Western North America or in other words “Typical La Nina
Pattern”. Nice Strong Aleutian HP across the Pacific as you can see above. BTW most of W.
Europe is below normal in terms of temps.

7. -PDO/+AMO and –ENSO Winters
We notice it resembles a “typical” La Nina pattern somewhat with below normal temp.
anomalies across Western North America and extending towards the GL’s region and
warmer than normal temperature anomalies across most of Eastern Canada towards
Atlantic Canada as result of the +AMO and WB –NAO. We also notice the HP anomaly
in the Pacific is closer to Siberia allowing for a Strong PV across the Canadian Side.

8. NAO and AO
Above is a typical –NAO/AO and +NAO/AO setup. As you can see above most
of North America is often very cold relative to normal during a –NAO given
the consistent troughs and Strong PV situated across Canada. On the top
right is the seasonal DJFM NAO index and notice through much of the 40’s
thru the 70’s the NAO was mostly negative, correlating well with the PDO.
IMO I believe the NAM has more connection with the PDO than the
NAO/AO. A +NAO/+AO if often the opposite with a strong Bermuda High in
the Atlantic.

9. NAO and -ENSO
DJF avg. NAO <-0.5 but >-1.5 DJF avg. NAO >0.5 but <1.5
I think you can see that most –NAO Winters often featured below normal temp. anomalies
Across most of North America through the Mid Atlantic region with above normal temp.
Anomalies across NFL and Labrador given the –NAO block and the opposite for when the
NAO was positive. Either way a –NAO would be great for most everyone and either phase for
The PNW/SW B.C.

10. -QBO and -NAO
Instead of explaining the relationship between the QBO and NAO you
can clearly see it above with strong –NAO blocking across the Arctic
with below normal temp. anomalies across Eastern NA and most of
Western Europe. The NAO/QBO correlate well. It seems as though we
may see a +QBO at 50mb and –QBO and 30mb this Winter so I’d
expect a slightly stronger Aleutian Ridge across the Pacific given the
-PDO/-PNA anomaly.

11. Low Solar Years
Low Solar years suggest that much of North America will feature below normal temp.
anomalies with a slightly –NAO/AO anomaly across the North along with below normal
Temp. anomalies across Europe as well. Typical Nina pattern across the West though
with slightly above normal temp. anomalies across far Southern USA. Despite the
increase in Sunspots over the past few months the AP index/KP index has remained
very low, and that leads to me say this Winter will feature a –NAO/-AO anomaly along
with the SST config. across the Atlantic though I don’t expect it to be as negative as the
past two Winters.

12. Overall Teleconnections Summary
• I expect a Weak-Mod La Nina this Winter peaking between -0.7 and -1.3
on the ONI.
• I expect a –QBO at 30hpa mostly with transitioning values at 50hpa.
• Low AP Index, -QBO, SST config. in the Atlantic will likely lead to more
“blocking” this Winter though I don’t expect huge negative anomalies this
Winter.
• -PDO/+AMO this Winter
• Transitional PNA Index with a fluctuating EPO.

13. DJF Temps.
By Snowstorms

14. DJF Snowfall
Near Normal

15. December Temps.
By Snowstorms

16. January Temps.
By: Snowstorms

17. February Temps.
By: Snowstorms

18. Overall Summary
Now I did not add monthly snowfall maps because I believe its bullshit creating
monthly snowfall maps because of so many uncertainties. My DJF snowfall map
represents snowfall greater than 5cm (2”) compared to normal. Overall I believe this
Winter should be great nationwide with great snowfall opportunities for many. I had
a hard time figuring temperatures out for December but after analyzing many
indices/climatology I believe I made the right decision for December. I do expect a lot
of clippers and perhaps a few Gulf Low’s this Winter with the possibility of 1-2
Nor'easters. I don’t expect huge blocking like the past two Winters but I expect a
mostly negative AO/NAO index in January/February and neutral-slightly negative
PNA along with a mostly negative EPO. As for Europe I do see a cold and snowy
Winter for Western Europe but I believe most of December should be mostly calm but
January and February will likely be fairly cold and snowy with the blocking setting up
again.
Any questions and comments will be appreciated.
By: Snowstorms