if you're grade 9, probably you tackled this in your science subject and your teacher tasked you to make a presentation, here is the ppt. It's about the conditions of el niño and la niña and history of el niño and la niña
El Niño conditions are currently being observed, with above average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and atmospheric anomalies consistent with El Niño. El Niño is expected to continue over the next few seasons before transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions between April and June 2024, according to a 73% probability forecast.
The document summarizes recent conditions in the Pacific Ocean and forecasts for the next few months. It notes that sea surface temperatures have cooled in recent weeks across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. While conditions resemble a La Niña pattern, the official indicators have not crossed the threshold. Forecasts suggest ENSO-neutral or weak La Niña conditions are equally likely in early 2009.
The document provides a summary of recent global ocean conditions from January 2011. It notes that La Niña conditions persisted in the Pacific with sea surface temperatures (SST) and subsurface heat content below average in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Negative PDO and NAO patterns were also present. The Arctic sea ice extent was smaller than 2007 levels. Predictions indicated La Niña would continue into northern spring/summer 2011.
This document provides an overview of key concepts in climate science. It discusses how climate science aims to observe, interpret, and explain the interconnected climate system, which includes the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. It also notes that climate science requires an integrative and interdisciplinary approach. The document then summarizes several important aspects of the climate system, including definitions of climate and weather; components and complexity of the climate system; natural climate variability mechanisms like ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AMO; climate forcings and feedbacks; and factors that influence climate like solar activity, volcanoes, and plate tectonics.
Lecture 8 el nino, la nina, and their connection with hong kong climatepolylsgiedx
This document discusses El Niño/La Niña climate patterns and their connection to Hong Kong's climate. It explains that El Niño/La Niña are naturally occurring phenomena linked to changes in Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures and winds that affect weather worldwide. During El Niño, sea surface temperatures are warmer than average in the eastern Pacific while during La Niña they are colder. This impacts weather patterns and can cause droughts, floods, or changes in storm tracks in many regions including Hong Kong. The document provides details on the mechanisms and impacts of El Niño/La Niña events.
Severe Tropical Cyclone George affected northern Australia from March 2-16, 2007, becoming one of the strongest storms to make landfall in Port Hedland. Several factors contributed to George's intensification and ability to maintain circulation after landfall, including the location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone during March in the Southern Hemisphere, the presence of a cool phase El Niño Southern Oscillation, and the flat terrain of northwest Australia which allowed the circulation to persist over land longer than expected. Analysis of satellite imagery and atmospheric conditions show that a cool phase ENSO was present in early 2007, supporting tropical cyclone formation near Australia, and that George was able to maintain its circulation for over 24 hours after landfall
if you're grade 9, probably you tackled this in your science subject and your teacher tasked you to make a presentation, here is the ppt. It's about the conditions of el niño and la niña and history of el niño and la niña
El Niño conditions are currently being observed, with above average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and atmospheric anomalies consistent with El Niño. El Niño is expected to continue over the next few seasons before transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions between April and June 2024, according to a 73% probability forecast.
The document summarizes recent conditions in the Pacific Ocean and forecasts for the next few months. It notes that sea surface temperatures have cooled in recent weeks across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. While conditions resemble a La Niña pattern, the official indicators have not crossed the threshold. Forecasts suggest ENSO-neutral or weak La Niña conditions are equally likely in early 2009.
The document provides a summary of recent global ocean conditions from January 2011. It notes that La Niña conditions persisted in the Pacific with sea surface temperatures (SST) and subsurface heat content below average in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Negative PDO and NAO patterns were also present. The Arctic sea ice extent was smaller than 2007 levels. Predictions indicated La Niña would continue into northern spring/summer 2011.
This document provides an overview of key concepts in climate science. It discusses how climate science aims to observe, interpret, and explain the interconnected climate system, which includes the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. It also notes that climate science requires an integrative and interdisciplinary approach. The document then summarizes several important aspects of the climate system, including definitions of climate and weather; components and complexity of the climate system; natural climate variability mechanisms like ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AMO; climate forcings and feedbacks; and factors that influence climate like solar activity, volcanoes, and plate tectonics.
Lecture 8 el nino, la nina, and their connection with hong kong climatepolylsgiedx
This document discusses El Niño/La Niña climate patterns and their connection to Hong Kong's climate. It explains that El Niño/La Niña are naturally occurring phenomena linked to changes in Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures and winds that affect weather worldwide. During El Niño, sea surface temperatures are warmer than average in the eastern Pacific while during La Niña they are colder. This impacts weather patterns and can cause droughts, floods, or changes in storm tracks in many regions including Hong Kong. The document provides details on the mechanisms and impacts of El Niño/La Niña events.
Severe Tropical Cyclone George affected northern Australia from March 2-16, 2007, becoming one of the strongest storms to make landfall in Port Hedland. Several factors contributed to George's intensification and ability to maintain circulation after landfall, including the location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone during March in the Southern Hemisphere, the presence of a cool phase El Niño Southern Oscillation, and the flat terrain of northwest Australia which allowed the circulation to persist over land longer than expected. Analysis of satellite imagery and atmospheric conditions show that a cool phase ENSO was present in early 2007, supporting tropical cyclone formation near Australia, and that George was able to maintain its circulation for over 24 hours after landfall
The Southern Oscillation is a periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean that affects global climate. It involves alternating phases known as El Niño and La Niña. During El Niño, trade winds weaken and warmer waters shift eastward, while during La Niña trade winds strengthen and cooler waters shift westward. This cycle, known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), typically occurs every 2-7 years and influences weather patterns and ocean temperatures around the world.
The document discusses the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. ENSO involves shifts between El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cool) phases that impact weather worldwide. It was discovered in the late 19th century by Gilbert Walker and involves changes in ocean temperatures, winds, and air pressure across the Pacific. Developing countries dependent on agriculture and fishing are most affected by the extremes in weather caused by ENSO.
(3) References for el nino cause and effects essayBelow are 3 fu.docxkatherncarlyle
(3) References for el nino cause and effects essay
Below are 3 full text sources from Proquest data base to be used for this essay. Please use in text citations in the body of the essay and create a works cited section at the end of the essay. I have already cited each source for you at the beginning of each source above the title (see below).
Perera, J. (1997, Dec 26). EL NINO - THE GLOBAL WEATHER PHENOMENON. Inter Press Service Retrieved from http://search.proquest.com/docview/446072605?accountid=8289
EL NINO - THE GLOBAL WEATHER PHENOMENON
LONDON, Dec. 26 (IPS) -- In March 1997, sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean began increasing -- the beginning of the "El Nino" weather system that, linked with the so-called "Southern Oscillation," has become notorious its global effects.
The El Nino of 1982-83 caused severe flooding and weather damage in Latin America as well as drought in parts of Asia. The last event, in 1991-92 brought severe drought to Southern Africa.
This year's El Nino is regarded by various experts as one of the most severe this century with record Pacific surface temperatures.
It is expected to continue well into 1998.
El Nino was the name given by the fishermen of northern Peru during the 19th century to describe the flow ofwarm equatorial waters southward around Christmas time. Normally the waters were cold and flowed from south to north.
But periodically the waters would reverse their flow and become warm. This caused the fish food chain to collapse as the warm current blocked the nutrient-rich cold water that rises from the bottom of the ocean. The fish died or moved away and catches would fall. This usually reached its peak around Christmas holiday, and the sailors named it "El Nino" (the Christ Child).
However, Peruvian scientists later linked more intense changes that took place every few years with catastrophic seasonal flooding along the normally arid coast.
At the beginning of the 20th century, British climatologist Gilbert Walker, head of the Indian Meteorological Service, began to investigate connections between the Asian monsoon and other climatic changes. He had been asked in 1904 to find a way to predict the pattern of India's monsoons after an 1899 famine caused by monsoon failure.
Unaware of El Nino, he discovered a periodic fluctuation of atmospheric pressure over the tropical Indo-Pacific region, which he called the Southern Oscillation (SO). When rainfall was sparse over northern Australia and Indonesia, pressure in that region was unusually high and wind patterns were changed.
At the same time, pressures were unusually low in the eastern South Pacific. Walker devised a "Southern Oscillation Index" (SOI), based on pressure differences between the two regions (east minus west) and in papers published during the 1920s and 1930s, he presented evidence for worldwide climatic changes associated with the SOI pressure "seesaw."
In the 1950s, the low-phase years of the SOI were found to corresponded ...
El Niño is a warm ocean current that develops along the coast of Ecuador and Peru and sometimes causes catastrophic weather. Climate change refers to long-term changes in average global temperatures. The presentation discusses how El Niño and climate change impact weather patterns globally and in the United States, focusing on temperature and precipitation trends in New Jersey. It emphasizes that both phenomena lead to increased volatility and variability in weather over time.
This document discusses several key indicators and phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle in the tropical Pacific:
(1) It describes the typical conditions during La Niña versus El Niño phases, including differences in sea surface temperatures, wind patterns, thermocline depth and precipitation across the eastern and western tropical Pacific.
(2) It explains how ENSO is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon, with interactions and feedbacks between the two systems either enhancing or suppressing the phases.
(3) It provides illustrations of the average December-February conditions and how the patterns differ and evolve during La Niña and El Niño episodes.
Ph.D. Defence: The Onset Variability and Near-Term Projection of the Asian Su...Devanil Choudhury
This was my final Ph.D. defence, was presented at the Centre for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing in November 2020. This was a part of Asian Summer Monsoon research project starting from 2017 to 2020.
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which involves irregular changes in ocean temperatures and weather patterns in the equatorial Pacific. El Niño brings unusually warm water to Peru and Ecuador, weakening trade winds and affecting global weather. It occurs every 2-7 years and can cause flooding in some areas and drought in others. The thermocline and convective loops influence the cycle. Scientists monitor buoys and use models to predict when El Niño and La Niña events will occur.
1. The document examines coastal upwelling along Papua New Guinea using observations and ocean model simulations.
2. It finds evidence of coastal upwelling and related sea surface temperature cooling prior to the 2002/2003 El Nino event from satellite data and in situ measurements.
3. Ocean model hindcast experiments capture the observed upwelling and sea surface temperature patterns and suggest that surface currents transporting cool upwelled water contribute to sea surface temperature cooling in the western equatorial Pacific before El Nino onset.
The document discusses El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which refers to the interaction between the ocean and atmosphere in the Pacific Ocean. It causes changes in rainfall, wind, pressure, and temperature across the Pacific. The Southern Oscillation Index measures the difference in pressure between Tahiti and Darwin to quantify ENSO conditions. During El Niño, warm water spreads eastward across the Pacific, causing drier than normal conditions in some areas and higher global temperatures. El Niño affects fish populations, bird and seal life, drought conditions, and GDP in some countries.
Regional Climate Information: Small Islands - Regional Overviewipcc-media
The document summarizes key findings from the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) regarding climate change impacts on small islands. It finds that sea level rise and coastal inundation pose high risks to small islands, and that warming will increase heat extremes, marine heatwaves, and ocean acidification. Precipitation trends vary by region, but the Caribbean and parts of the Pacific and Western Indian Ocean are expected to experience drying. Tropical cyclones will likely be fewer but more intense in many areas. Constructing detailed climate information for planning is challenging due to lack of observations and high-resolution data in small islands.
The document provides an overview of the monsoon phenomenon, including its definition, key regions affected, and various theories about the factors that influence monsoons. It discusses how differential heating between land and sea, the shifting of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, heating over the Tibetan Plateau, pressure systems in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, and phenomena like the El Niño–Southern Oscillation can all impact monsoon winds and rainfall. The monsoon is a crucial seasonal reversal of wind patterns that strongly influences the climate and economies of many parts of Asia.
1) El Niño and La Niña are atmospheric conditions that occur in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and impact global weather patterns. During El Niño, sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific warm above normal, while during La Niña they cool below normal.
2) These conditions alter ocean currents and wind patterns. El Niño brings warmer water and rain to the eastern Pacific, weakening trade winds, while La Niña strengthens trade winds and brings cooler water and rain to the western Pacific.
3) The changes cause weather effects around the world, such as drought in some areas and above average rain in others. NOAA is currently predicting a 50-60% chance of an El Niño event in
Effects of the El Nino Weather System on Fishing In PeruTyler Franzen
The document discusses the effects of the El Niño weather system on fish populations off the Peruvian coast. It explains that El Niño events cause warm water upwelling that brings few nutrients to the surface, devastating fishing industries. The Peruvian government regulates fishing to prevent overfishing during El Niño years and allow fish populations to recover. Strict regulations have helped fishing return to normal more quickly after El Niño events and prevented economic collapses.
El Niño and La Niña are climate phenomena in the Pacific Ocean that have worldwide impacts. El Niño occurs when ocean waters in the eastern Pacific warm significantly, affecting weather patterns globally. It typically happens every 2-7 years and causes drought in some areas and flooding in others. La Niña is the cooling phase, with colder than average waters in the eastern Pacific. While the exact causes are still being studied, theories involve changes in trade winds and ocean currents that create a feedback loop warming or cooling the waters in the eastern Pacific.
1) The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) describes the interaction between the ocean and atmosphere in the Pacific Ocean, marked by alternating warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases.
2) During El Niño, trade winds weaken and warm water shifts to the eastern Pacific, causing drought in Southeast Asia and other impacts worldwide. La Niña brings stronger trade winds and colder eastern Pacific waters, leading to wetter conditions in Southeast Asia.
3) The Southern Oscillation Index measures pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin to quantify ENSO phases, with negative values indicating El Niño and positive values La Niña. Each phase affects global weather and
The Southern Oscillation is a periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean that affects global climate. It involves alternating phases known as El Niño and La Niña. During El Niño, trade winds weaken and warmer waters shift eastward, while during La Niña trade winds strengthen and cooler waters shift westward. This cycle, known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), typically occurs every 2-7 years and influences weather patterns and ocean temperatures around the world.
The document discusses the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. ENSO involves shifts between El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cool) phases that impact weather worldwide. It was discovered in the late 19th century by Gilbert Walker and involves changes in ocean temperatures, winds, and air pressure across the Pacific. Developing countries dependent on agriculture and fishing are most affected by the extremes in weather caused by ENSO.
(3) References for el nino cause and effects essayBelow are 3 fu.docxkatherncarlyle
(3) References for el nino cause and effects essay
Below are 3 full text sources from Proquest data base to be used for this essay. Please use in text citations in the body of the essay and create a works cited section at the end of the essay. I have already cited each source for you at the beginning of each source above the title (see below).
Perera, J. (1997, Dec 26). EL NINO - THE GLOBAL WEATHER PHENOMENON. Inter Press Service Retrieved from http://search.proquest.com/docview/446072605?accountid=8289
EL NINO - THE GLOBAL WEATHER PHENOMENON
LONDON, Dec. 26 (IPS) -- In March 1997, sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean began increasing -- the beginning of the "El Nino" weather system that, linked with the so-called "Southern Oscillation," has become notorious its global effects.
The El Nino of 1982-83 caused severe flooding and weather damage in Latin America as well as drought in parts of Asia. The last event, in 1991-92 brought severe drought to Southern Africa.
This year's El Nino is regarded by various experts as one of the most severe this century with record Pacific surface temperatures.
It is expected to continue well into 1998.
El Nino was the name given by the fishermen of northern Peru during the 19th century to describe the flow ofwarm equatorial waters southward around Christmas time. Normally the waters were cold and flowed from south to north.
But periodically the waters would reverse their flow and become warm. This caused the fish food chain to collapse as the warm current blocked the nutrient-rich cold water that rises from the bottom of the ocean. The fish died or moved away and catches would fall. This usually reached its peak around Christmas holiday, and the sailors named it "El Nino" (the Christ Child).
However, Peruvian scientists later linked more intense changes that took place every few years with catastrophic seasonal flooding along the normally arid coast.
At the beginning of the 20th century, British climatologist Gilbert Walker, head of the Indian Meteorological Service, began to investigate connections between the Asian monsoon and other climatic changes. He had been asked in 1904 to find a way to predict the pattern of India's monsoons after an 1899 famine caused by monsoon failure.
Unaware of El Nino, he discovered a periodic fluctuation of atmospheric pressure over the tropical Indo-Pacific region, which he called the Southern Oscillation (SO). When rainfall was sparse over northern Australia and Indonesia, pressure in that region was unusually high and wind patterns were changed.
At the same time, pressures were unusually low in the eastern South Pacific. Walker devised a "Southern Oscillation Index" (SOI), based on pressure differences between the two regions (east minus west) and in papers published during the 1920s and 1930s, he presented evidence for worldwide climatic changes associated with the SOI pressure "seesaw."
In the 1950s, the low-phase years of the SOI were found to corresponded ...
El Niño is a warm ocean current that develops along the coast of Ecuador and Peru and sometimes causes catastrophic weather. Climate change refers to long-term changes in average global temperatures. The presentation discusses how El Niño and climate change impact weather patterns globally and in the United States, focusing on temperature and precipitation trends in New Jersey. It emphasizes that both phenomena lead to increased volatility and variability in weather over time.
This document discusses several key indicators and phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle in the tropical Pacific:
(1) It describes the typical conditions during La Niña versus El Niño phases, including differences in sea surface temperatures, wind patterns, thermocline depth and precipitation across the eastern and western tropical Pacific.
(2) It explains how ENSO is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon, with interactions and feedbacks between the two systems either enhancing or suppressing the phases.
(3) It provides illustrations of the average December-February conditions and how the patterns differ and evolve during La Niña and El Niño episodes.
Ph.D. Defence: The Onset Variability and Near-Term Projection of the Asian Su...Devanil Choudhury
This was my final Ph.D. defence, was presented at the Centre for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing in November 2020. This was a part of Asian Summer Monsoon research project starting from 2017 to 2020.
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which involves irregular changes in ocean temperatures and weather patterns in the equatorial Pacific. El Niño brings unusually warm water to Peru and Ecuador, weakening trade winds and affecting global weather. It occurs every 2-7 years and can cause flooding in some areas and drought in others. The thermocline and convective loops influence the cycle. Scientists monitor buoys and use models to predict when El Niño and La Niña events will occur.
1. The document examines coastal upwelling along Papua New Guinea using observations and ocean model simulations.
2. It finds evidence of coastal upwelling and related sea surface temperature cooling prior to the 2002/2003 El Nino event from satellite data and in situ measurements.
3. Ocean model hindcast experiments capture the observed upwelling and sea surface temperature patterns and suggest that surface currents transporting cool upwelled water contribute to sea surface temperature cooling in the western equatorial Pacific before El Nino onset.
The document discusses El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which refers to the interaction between the ocean and atmosphere in the Pacific Ocean. It causes changes in rainfall, wind, pressure, and temperature across the Pacific. The Southern Oscillation Index measures the difference in pressure between Tahiti and Darwin to quantify ENSO conditions. During El Niño, warm water spreads eastward across the Pacific, causing drier than normal conditions in some areas and higher global temperatures. El Niño affects fish populations, bird and seal life, drought conditions, and GDP in some countries.
Regional Climate Information: Small Islands - Regional Overviewipcc-media
The document summarizes key findings from the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) regarding climate change impacts on small islands. It finds that sea level rise and coastal inundation pose high risks to small islands, and that warming will increase heat extremes, marine heatwaves, and ocean acidification. Precipitation trends vary by region, but the Caribbean and parts of the Pacific and Western Indian Ocean are expected to experience drying. Tropical cyclones will likely be fewer but more intense in many areas. Constructing detailed climate information for planning is challenging due to lack of observations and high-resolution data in small islands.
The document provides an overview of the monsoon phenomenon, including its definition, key regions affected, and various theories about the factors that influence monsoons. It discusses how differential heating between land and sea, the shifting of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, heating over the Tibetan Plateau, pressure systems in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, and phenomena like the El Niño–Southern Oscillation can all impact monsoon winds and rainfall. The monsoon is a crucial seasonal reversal of wind patterns that strongly influences the climate and economies of many parts of Asia.
1) El Niño and La Niña are atmospheric conditions that occur in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and impact global weather patterns. During El Niño, sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific warm above normal, while during La Niña they cool below normal.
2) These conditions alter ocean currents and wind patterns. El Niño brings warmer water and rain to the eastern Pacific, weakening trade winds, while La Niña strengthens trade winds and brings cooler water and rain to the western Pacific.
3) The changes cause weather effects around the world, such as drought in some areas and above average rain in others. NOAA is currently predicting a 50-60% chance of an El Niño event in
Effects of the El Nino Weather System on Fishing In PeruTyler Franzen
The document discusses the effects of the El Niño weather system on fish populations off the Peruvian coast. It explains that El Niño events cause warm water upwelling that brings few nutrients to the surface, devastating fishing industries. The Peruvian government regulates fishing to prevent overfishing during El Niño years and allow fish populations to recover. Strict regulations have helped fishing return to normal more quickly after El Niño events and prevented economic collapses.
El Niño and La Niña are climate phenomena in the Pacific Ocean that have worldwide impacts. El Niño occurs when ocean waters in the eastern Pacific warm significantly, affecting weather patterns globally. It typically happens every 2-7 years and causes drought in some areas and flooding in others. La Niña is the cooling phase, with colder than average waters in the eastern Pacific. While the exact causes are still being studied, theories involve changes in trade winds and ocean currents that create a feedback loop warming or cooling the waters in the eastern Pacific.
1) The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) describes the interaction between the ocean and atmosphere in the Pacific Ocean, marked by alternating warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases.
2) During El Niño, trade winds weaken and warm water shifts to the eastern Pacific, causing drought in Southeast Asia and other impacts worldwide. La Niña brings stronger trade winds and colder eastern Pacific waters, leading to wetter conditions in Southeast Asia.
3) The Southern Oscillation Index measures pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin to quantify ENSO phases, with negative values indicating El Niño and positive values La Niña. Each phase affects global weather and
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2. Outline
Summary
Recent Evolution and Current Conditions
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
Pacific SST Outlook
U.S. Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks
Summary
3. Summary
* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association
with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch
El Niño conditions are observed.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the
central and east-central Pacific Ocean.
The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are weakening.
A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85%
chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60%
chance).*
4. From March-October 2023, positive sea
surface temperature (SST) anomalies in
the eastern Pacific Ocean expanded
and shifted westward.
In October and November 2023, SST
anomalies increased in the central and
east-central Pacific.
Since late December 2023, positive SST
anomalies have weakened across most
of the Pacific.
Recently, below-average SSTs emerged
in small regions of the eastern Pacific.
Recent Evolution of
Equatorial Pacific SST
Departures (oC)
6. SST Departures (oC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last
Four Weeks
In the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above average the central and western
Pacific Ocean. Near-to-below-average SSTs were evident in parts of the east-central
and eastern Pacific Ocean.
26
30
7. Global SST Departures (oC) During the Last Four Weeks
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above average across the western and central
Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and the Atlantic Ocean. Near-to-below-average SSTs were evident
in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean.
26
30
30
8. Weekly SST Departures
during the Last Four
Weeks
During the last 4 weeks, above-average SSTs
weakened across most of the equatorial
Pacific Ocean.
Below-average SSTs have persisted in parts of
the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
9. Change in Weekly SST Departures over the Last Four
Weeks
During the last four weeks, negative SST anomaly changes were observed in the east-
central equatorial Pacific, with positive anomaly changes in the far eastern Pacific.
10. Upper-Ocean Conditions in
the Equatorial Pacific
The basin-wide equatorial upper ocean (0-300 m)
heat content is greatest prior to and during the
early stages of a Pacific warm (El Niño) episode
(compare top 2 panels), and least prior to and
during the early stages of a cold (La Niña)
episode.
The slope of the oceanic thermocline is least
(greatest) during warm (cold) episodes.
Recent values of the upper-ocean heat
anomalies (below average) and thermocline
slope index (slightly above average) reflect a
weakening El Niño.
The monthly thermocline slope index represents the
difference in anomalous depth of the 20ºC isotherm
between the western Pacific (160ºE-150ºW) and the
eastern Pacific (90º-140ºW).
11. Central and Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m)
Weekly Average Temperature Anomalies
Positive subsurface temperature anomalies persisted through mid-January 2024. Variability in the
anomalies was associated with several oceanic Kelvin waves. Subsurface temperature anomalies have
weakened since late November 2023. From late January to mid-April 2024, negative temperature
anomalies strengthened.
12. Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial
Pacific
Most recent pentad analysis
Over the last couple months, negative subsurface
temperature anomalies strengthened across the
equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Below-average temperatures reached the surface in
the eastern Pacific Ocean (near 130º-90ºW).
13. Tropical OLR and Wind
Anomalies During the Last
30 Days
OLR was near average across most of the
equatorial Pacific, and slightly above average
(suppressed convection and precipitation) around
the Philippines and Southeast Asia.
Low-level (850-hPa) wind anomalies were
easterly over the western tropical Pacific
Ocean.
Upper-level (200-hPa) wind anomalies were
easterly over the east-central equatorial
Pacific.
14. Intraseasonal Variability
Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related
to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface
conditions across the Pacific Ocean.
Related to this activity:
Significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward-
propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
15. Weekly Heat Content
Evolution in the Equatorial
Pacific
Equatorial oceanic Kelvin waves have alternating
warm and cold phases. The warm phase is
indicated by dashed lines. Down-welling and
warming occur in the leading portion of a Kelvin
wave, and up-welling and cooling occur in the
trailing portion.
Significant equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave activity
(dashed and dotted lines) has been present
throughout the period shown.
Through January 2024, above-average subsurface
temperatures persisted across most of the Pacific
Ocean.
From November 2023 through March 2024, below-
average temperatures strengthened in the western
Pacific Ocean and shifted into the eastern Pacific.
Since late February 2024, another upwelling Kelvin
wave has shifted eastward.
16. Low-level (850-hPa)
Zonal (east-west) Wind
Anomalies (m s-1)
At times, the Madden Julian-Oscillation
(MJO) has contributed to the eastward
propagation of low-level wind anomalies.
An eastward propagating pattern of
westerly and easterly wind anomalies was
evident starting in November 2023.
Westerly Wind Anomalies (orange/red shading)
Easterly Wind Anomalies (blue shading)
17. Upper-level (200-hPa)
Velocity Potential
Anomalies
Unfavorable for precipitation (brown shading)
Favorable for precipitation (green shading)
Note: Eastward propagation is not necessarily indicative of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
Since the beginning of the period, regions of
anomalous divergence (green shading) and
convergence (brown shading) were generally
propagating eastward.
From early December 2023 to mid-March
2024, anomalous divergence persisted over
the central Pacific.
18. Outgoing Longwave
Radiation (OLR) Anomalies
Drier-than-average Conditions (orange/red shading)
Wetter-than-average Conditions (blue shading)
Through early March 2024, negative OLR
anomalies (more convection) persisted
over the central equatorial Pacific Ocean
Through December 2023, positive OLR
anomalies persisted around Indonesia.
From mid-December 2023 through March
2024, OLR anomalies shifted eastward
from the Indian Ocean/Indonesia to the
western Pacific/Date Line.
Since mid-April 2024, OLR was slightly
above-average in the western and central
equatorial Pacific.
19. Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a
principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO.
Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region.
Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses
(Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v5). The SST reconstruction methodology is
described in Huang et al., 2017, J. Climate, vol. 30, 8179-8205.)
It is one index that helps to place current events into a historical perspective.
Note: a different SST dataset is used for weekly SST monitoring (slides #4-9) and is
using OISSTv2.1 (Huang et al., 2021).
20. NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña
El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.
La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.
By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode,
these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping
3-month seasons.
CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST
departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These
anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.
21. ONI (ºC): Evolution
since 1950
The most recent ONI value
(February – April 2024) is 1.1ºC.
El Niño
La Niña
Neutral
22. Historical El Niño and La Niña Episodes Based on the
ONI computed using ERSST.v5
Recent Pacific warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5 ºC for the Oceanic
Nino Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, 120-170W)].
For historical purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the
threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons.
The ONI is one measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether
features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods. The complete
table going back to DJF 1950 can be found here.
Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ
2012 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.2
2013 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
2014 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7
2015 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.6
2016 2.5 2.1 1.6 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6
2017 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0
2018 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8
2019 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5
2020 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -1.2 -1.3 -1.2
2021 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0
2022 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8
2023 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0
2024 1.8 1.5 1.1
23. CPC Probabilistic ENSO Outlook
Updated: 11 April 2024
A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with
the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance).
24. IRI Pacific Niño 3.4
SST Model Outlook
Figure provided by the International Research
Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society
(updated 19 April 2024).
The majority of models indicate a
transition to ENSO-neutral during
April-June 2024.
After a brief period of ENSO-
neutral conditions, most models
indicate a transition to La Niña
around July-September 2024.
25. SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast (PDF corrected)
Issued: 6 May 2024
The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) indicates El Niño may transition
to ENSO-neutral in May, followed by a transition to La Niña around June-August
2024.
26. Atmospheric anomalies over
the North Pacific and North
America During the Last 60
Days
1 of 3
From early March through late April, below-
average heights and temperatures persisted in
the eastern North Pacific Ocean and western
contiguous U.S.
For most of the period, above-average heights
and temperatures have persisted over the central
and eastern U.S.
27. 2 of 3
Atmospheric anomalies over
the North Pacific and North
America During the Last 60
Days
From early March through late April, below-
average heights and temperatures persisted in
the eastern North Pacific Ocean and western
contiguous U.S.
For most of the period, above-average heights
and temperatures have persisted over the central
and eastern U.S.
28. 3 of 3
Atmospheric anomalies over
the North Pacific and North
America During the Last 60
Days
From early March through late April, below-
average heights and temperatures persisted in
the eastern North Pacific Ocean and western
contiguous U.S.
For most of the period, above-average heights
and temperatures have persisted over the central
and eastern U.S.
29. U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Departures During
the Last 30 Days
End Date: 4 May 2024
Percent of Average Precipitation Temperature Departures (degree C)
1 of 2
30. U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Departures During
the Last 90 Days
Percent of Average Precipitation Temperature Departures (degree C)
2 of 2
End Date: 4 May 2024
31. U. S. Seasonal Outlooks
Precipitation Temperature
May – July 2024
The seasonal outlooks combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture,
and, when appropriate, ENSO.
32. Summary
* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association
with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch
El Niño conditions are observed.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the
central and east-central Pacific Ocean.
The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are weakening.
A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85%
chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60%
chance).*