North Lab Talks, 22nd April 2020. http://alandix.com/academic/talks/NorthLab-Covid-April-2020/ The complex issues that define or age, Covid-19 pandemic, climate change and Brexit cause confusion amongst politicians and vice chancellors as well as the general public. I will explore some of the cognitive barriers to understanding these issues including diffuse responsibility, exponential growth, essentialist thinking, and network feedback effects. More important I will ask whether as HCI researchers and interaction designers, we can contribute towards tools and techniques to help.

1. Why pandemics and climate change
are hard to understand,
and can we help?
Alan Dix
Computational Foundry
Swansea University
https://alandix.com/academic/talks/NorthLab-Covid-April-2020/

2. a University Vice-Chancellor
on Radio 4 Today programme
just after announcement that
A’ level exams were cancelled
“if it is safe to keep schools open for children of
key workers, then surely it is safe for students to
gather spread out in an exam hall.” (paraphrase)

3. WASH your hands religiously for
20 seconds, sneeze into your
elbow, avoid touching your face,
stay 1 metre away from all other people
and, as a last resort, self-quarantine for a
week with only your emergency rations for
company. If you want to avoid getting the
new coronavirus, all of these are a good
idea. But ultimately, one of the most
important things standing between you and
a deadly bout of covid-19 is your immune
system.”
New Scientist, 28 March 2020
https://www.newscientist.com/issue/3275/

4. a relative in the US
“I don’t understand,
first it was one or two
and then it was thousands”

5. What’s wrong?
if it is safe to …
– essentialism and dichotomous reasoning
– levels of risk, cost/benefit trade-off
if you want to avoid getting the new coronavirus
– diffuse responsibility & communal benefits
– reducing spread, individual actions insignificant
first it was one or two and then it was thousands
– numerosity, exponential growth

6. By NASA ICE - A close look at the shelf, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=24450299
By CDC/ Alissa Eckert, MS; Dan Higgins, MAM - https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=86444014
By ChiralJon - https://www.flickr.com/photos/69057297@N04/45554136424/, CC BY 2.0,
https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=75011663
not just coronavirus
climate change
Brexit

7. human reasoning
essentialism & dichotomous reasoning
– risk vs safety
fixed condition assumptions
– models of the economy, individual behaviour
diffuse responsibility & communal benefits
– prisoners’ dilemma, vaccination, social distancing

8. numerosity
Qualitative–Quantitative reasoning
between arithmetic and mathematics
• exponential growth
• understanding of large numbers
• dependencies and networks
• feedback effects
• hidden state wages
jobs
tax

9. common sense and every day data
can be misleading …
“I know someone who …”
but also a check to abstraction
early UK models doubling every 4–5 day
≠ reality every 2.5 days

10. The economics of death
£20-30,000 per QALY (Quality Adjusted Life Year)
Healthy 30 year old ~ £1 million
80 year od with existing illness ~ £100,000
https://www.nice.org.uk/Media/Default/guidance/LGB10-Briefing-20150126.pdf

11. The economics of death
£350bn = 350,000 fit 30 year olds
or 3.5 million sick 80 year olds
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/17/rishi-sunak-pledges-350bn-to-tackle-coronavirus-impact
?

12. challenge for us in HCI community
understand, design, build
advice, tools, visualisations
to help
politicians
scientists
journalists
general public