Slide deck from a May 11, 2020 webinar on who is buying the federal debt resulting from the COVID-19 economic relief efforts. Watch the video of the webinar at http://www.crfb.org/events/6-trillion-dollar-question-who-will-buy-our-debts.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget gave an overview of the latest COVID relief deal and how much it will boost incomes and economic growth, and discussed the proposal for $2,000 checks.
CRFB Webinar - Who is Buying Our New COVID-19 Debt - May 11, 2020CRFBGraphics
The document summarizes the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the government response. It notes that initial unemployment claims have skyrocketed while the government has spent trillions to stabilize the economy. This massive spending has caused federal debt and deficits to reach unprecedented levels. The Federal Reserve has absorbed almost all new debt issuance through bond purchases, maintaining low interest rates. However, the size and duration of Fed support is uncertain as debt levels rise sharply.
The document summarizes key findings from the Congressional Budget Office's April 2018 baseline report. It finds that trillion dollar deficits will return by 2020 under current policies, driven by recent tax cuts and spending increases. The growing costs of major health and retirement programs, along with rising interest costs on the debt, will cause debt levels to exceed the 50-year historical average as a share of the economy. Trillion dollar annual deficit reduction would be needed to balance the budget by 2028 or stabilize debt levels.
The document discusses various budget gimmicks that allow Congress to circumvent budget rules and create the appearance of fiscal discipline while not actually reducing deficits. It identifies 20 specific gimmicks and categorizes them into assumption gimmicks, manipulating the budget window, discretionary spending gimmicks, and other gimmicks. Examples are provided for many of the gimmicks. The overall document aims to educate about how budget rules are worked around and define technical terms.
CRFB - Build Back Better for Less - Oct. 15 2021CRFBGraphics
This document summarizes proposals for President Biden's economic recovery package, known as "Build Back Better". It compares the cost and policies of proposals ranging from $1.5 trillion to $4.6 trillion. The House-passed bill is estimated to cost $4.6 trillion but is underfunded. Alternative proposals that cost $1.5 trillion or $2.3 trillion are outlined, focusing spending on families, health care, education, climate and paid leave, and offsetting costs through tax increases. The $2.3 trillion option is described in more detail, expanding programs like the child tax credit while means-testing benefits and implementing reforms to reduce costs.
This document summarizes key information about health care spending and coverage in the United States. It shows that most health spending goes to hospital care, physician services, and prescription drugs. It is financed through private insurance, Medicare, Medicaid and other payers. The US spends a higher percentage of GDP on health care than other countries. The Affordable Care Act expanded coverage through reforms like the individual mandate, Medicaid expansion and subsidies. Repealing the ACA could increase the number of uninsured by over 20 million and add $150-1.75 trillion to the federal deficit over 10 years. Partial repeal options could also have significant costs depending on the specific provisions changed or delayed.
This document discusses federal budget priorities and spending on children. It finds that while children represent the future and economic growth, they receive a relatively small portion of federal spending. Spending on children has declined as a share of the budget since 2010 and is projected to continue declining. It is more temporary, discretionary and lacks built-in growth compared to spending on older populations. The long-term outlook for children is especially troubling as interest on the debt is projected to surpass spending on children. Some potential solutions proposed include accounting for children more in budget projections, prioritizing children through new committees or positions, and improving policies around children's health care and dedicated revenue sources.
The document discusses how population aging is contributing to slower economic growth and rising government debt in the United States. It presents a framework for Social Security reform that could increase economic growth by promoting delayed retirement, rewarding work at all ages, increasing savings, and improving the sustainability of Social Security. Key aspects of the framework include raising the retirement age while protecting vulnerable workers, basing benefits on all years of earnings rather than average lifetime earnings, and automatically enrolling workers in supplemental retirement accounts. The reform aims to boost labor supply, savings, and long-term economic growth while restoring solvency to Social Security.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget gave an overview of the latest COVID relief deal and how much it will boost incomes and economic growth, and discussed the proposal for $2,000 checks.
CRFB Webinar - Who is Buying Our New COVID-19 Debt - May 11, 2020CRFBGraphics
The document summarizes the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the government response. It notes that initial unemployment claims have skyrocketed while the government has spent trillions to stabilize the economy. This massive spending has caused federal debt and deficits to reach unprecedented levels. The Federal Reserve has absorbed almost all new debt issuance through bond purchases, maintaining low interest rates. However, the size and duration of Fed support is uncertain as debt levels rise sharply.
The document summarizes key findings from the Congressional Budget Office's April 2018 baseline report. It finds that trillion dollar deficits will return by 2020 under current policies, driven by recent tax cuts and spending increases. The growing costs of major health and retirement programs, along with rising interest costs on the debt, will cause debt levels to exceed the 50-year historical average as a share of the economy. Trillion dollar annual deficit reduction would be needed to balance the budget by 2028 or stabilize debt levels.
The document discusses various budget gimmicks that allow Congress to circumvent budget rules and create the appearance of fiscal discipline while not actually reducing deficits. It identifies 20 specific gimmicks and categorizes them into assumption gimmicks, manipulating the budget window, discretionary spending gimmicks, and other gimmicks. Examples are provided for many of the gimmicks. The overall document aims to educate about how budget rules are worked around and define technical terms.
CRFB - Build Back Better for Less - Oct. 15 2021CRFBGraphics
This document summarizes proposals for President Biden's economic recovery package, known as "Build Back Better". It compares the cost and policies of proposals ranging from $1.5 trillion to $4.6 trillion. The House-passed bill is estimated to cost $4.6 trillion but is underfunded. Alternative proposals that cost $1.5 trillion or $2.3 trillion are outlined, focusing spending on families, health care, education, climate and paid leave, and offsetting costs through tax increases. The $2.3 trillion option is described in more detail, expanding programs like the child tax credit while means-testing benefits and implementing reforms to reduce costs.
This document summarizes key information about health care spending and coverage in the United States. It shows that most health spending goes to hospital care, physician services, and prescription drugs. It is financed through private insurance, Medicare, Medicaid and other payers. The US spends a higher percentage of GDP on health care than other countries. The Affordable Care Act expanded coverage through reforms like the individual mandate, Medicaid expansion and subsidies. Repealing the ACA could increase the number of uninsured by over 20 million and add $150-1.75 trillion to the federal deficit over 10 years. Partial repeal options could also have significant costs depending on the specific provisions changed or delayed.
This document discusses federal budget priorities and spending on children. It finds that while children represent the future and economic growth, they receive a relatively small portion of federal spending. Spending on children has declined as a share of the budget since 2010 and is projected to continue declining. It is more temporary, discretionary and lacks built-in growth compared to spending on older populations. The long-term outlook for children is especially troubling as interest on the debt is projected to surpass spending on children. Some potential solutions proposed include accounting for children more in budget projections, prioritizing children through new committees or positions, and improving policies around children's health care and dedicated revenue sources.
The document discusses how population aging is contributing to slower economic growth and rising government debt in the United States. It presents a framework for Social Security reform that could increase economic growth by promoting delayed retirement, rewarding work at all ages, increasing savings, and improving the sustainability of Social Security. Key aspects of the framework include raising the retirement age while protecting vulnerable workers, basing benefits on all years of earnings rather than average lifetime earnings, and automatically enrolling workers in supplemental retirement accounts. The reform aims to boost labor supply, savings, and long-term economic growth while restoring solvency to Social Security.
CRFB Chartbook - Reducing the Tax Gap - 07/14/2021CRFBGraphics
The document discusses estimates of the US tax gap, which is the difference between taxes owed and taxes paid. Some key points:
- The annual tax gap is estimated at around $550 billion for tax year 2019, or about 2.6% of GDP.
- Most of the tax gap comes from underreporting of income, particularly from business income which has little mandatory information reporting.
- Increasing IRS funding for enforcement and expanding information reporting could significantly reduce the tax gap. The Biden plan is estimated to generate over $700 billion in reduced tax gap over 10 years.
CRFB Webinar - The COVID-19 Economic Crisis, the Federal Response, and Our Ri...CRFBGraphics
This brief presentation contains a number of charts and other visualizations that help make sense of our nation’s fiscal state prior to the onset of the pandemic, the nature and scale of the current economic crisis, how the Federal Government has responded thus far, and the future implications of that response for the federal budget, deficit and debt.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget published the only existing comprehensive study to detail and compare the fiscal cost of President Donald Trump and Vice President Joe Biden's campaign agendas. We estimate that both candidates would add trillions to the debt – but in very different ways.
The document summarizes the Austin Independent School District's budget outlook and challenges for fiscal year 2012. It notes declining local property values and expected state funding cuts of $2-5 billion. This would result in a budget shortfall for AISD of $94-114 million. To close this gap, AISD proposes reductions like increasing class sizes, employee furloughs, and using $31 million of its fund balance, with more cuts needed if state funding is reduced further. Maintaining adequate fund balance is important for the district's credit rating and borrowing ability.
This document summarizes Illinois' fiscal situation and recent budget debates. It notes that while the FY2013 budget was based on one-time revenues, the FY2014 budget maintains the same spending levels. It expresses concerns that this does not prepare for lower revenues in FY2015. The document also discusses Illinois' massive pension debt and underfunding, as well as the state's poor economic growth and job losses compared to other states. It advocates pension reform and policies to promote business growth and job creation in order to improve Illinois' fiscal health.
This document summarizes Illinois' fiscal situation and recent budget debates. It notes that while the FY2013 budget was based on one-time revenues, the FY2014 budget maintains the same spending levels. It expresses concerns that this does not prepare for lower revenues in FY2015. The document also discusses Illinois' massive pension debt and underfunding, as well as the state's poor economic growth and job losses compared to other states. It advocates pension reform and policies to promote business growth and job creation in order to address Illinois' fiscal challenges.
This document summarizes a presentation by the Congressional Budget Office on how retirement wealth in the form of defined benefit (DB) and defined contribution (DC) pension plans is distributed among American families. It finds that between 1989 and 2019, retirement wealth became more concentrated, though less so than non-retirement wealth. DB assets remained more evenly distributed than DC assets. The phaseout of DB plans likely contributed to increased wealth inequality. Methodological inputs had a relatively small effect on estimates of wealth concentration.
The document summarizes Maryland's fiscal year 2013 budget and priorities under Governor Martin O'Malley. It highlights job creation, education funding, health care expansion, crime reduction, and maintaining a balanced budget through spending cuts and limited tax increases on high earners. Over $3.6 billion is allocated to capital projects focused on education, health, transportation, and economic development to support an estimated 52,000 jobs.
2011 Jobs Act & Deficit Plan Overview And Summary (2)pspizzirri
The document summarizes President Obama's 2011 jobs and deficit proposals. It outlines the goals of spurring short-term job growth and long-term deficit reduction. It then provides details on proposed spending cuts across multiple federal programs and agencies, as well as tax increases on high-income individuals and changes to business tax rules, projected to reduce the deficit by over $4 trillion over 10 years.
State Pensions-- Working Towards a Gradual TurnaroundEmily Jackson
This document summarizes the state of US state pension plans. It notes that while unfunded pension liabilities grew significantly after the recession, recent reforms and market gains are expected to gradually reduce the burden over the next few years. As of 2012, unfunded liabilities totaled over $1 trillion when including local governments. States have implemented reforms like reduced benefits, shifting to defined contribution plans, and hybrid plans to address shortfalls. Increasing disclosure requirements are also expected to bring more attention to the issue and encourage further reforms.
Presentation by Heidi Golding, an analyst in CBO’s National Security Division, at the Southern Economic Association Annual Meeting.
In this presentation, CBO provides background information on the VA health care system and past spending and describes 10-year projections by CBO on VA health spending under three different scenarios. CBO finds that, under certain assumptions, future spending required to treat veterans may be substantially higher (in inflation-adjusted dollars) than recent appropriations.
This document summarizes federal spending cuts from 2011 to 2014. It shows that $2.4 trillion in deficit reduction has been achieved through $1.7 trillion in discretionary spending cuts and $700 billion in revenue increases. However, the automatic budget cuts known as sequestration are set to take effect in 2013, imposing additional cuts. The House and Senate budgets propose different approaches, with the House keeping sequestration cuts but shifting them from defense to non-defense, while the Senate would replace sequestration. Specific impacts on programs like the CDC, Medicaid and Medicare are noted.
The Florida Community Loan Fund is a statewide CDFI that has provided over $230 million in financing to projects totaling $768 million over its 20 year history. It has experienced significant growth, increasing its assets by 77% and the capital it manages by 50% from 2012 to 2015. The organization provides loans for housing, community facilities, and economic development throughout Florida, with a focus on low-income communities.
Where does your tax dollars go? Who pays federal taxes? What are tax expenditures? We explain the U.S. federal tax system in a few easy-to-understand charts. See more resources at http://www.fixthedebt.org/tax-reform-resource-page
CBO estimates that expected annual economic losses total $54 billion (adjusted to remove the effects of inflation) for most types of damage caused by storm surges, hurricane winds, and heavy precipitation. Expected annual federal spending in response to hurricane winds and storm-related flooding totals $17 billion.
Presentation by Terry Dinan (from CBO's Microeconomic Studies Division) at a Congressional Research Service seminar.
The document outlines Ohio's $35 billion FY2014 budget, including sources of revenue and areas of spending, and shows that the state has made progress paying down its backlog of unpaid bills while also paying down debt from pension obligation bonds issued in 2010-2011. Key areas of general revenue fund spending include Medicaid/healthcare, pensions, education, and human services, while income and sales taxes are major sources of revenue.
The document discusses Illinois' severely underfunded state pension systems. It notes that the total unfunded liability is $85.5 billion as of June 30, 2010, and the funded ratio is only 38.3%. Several reform proposals are mentioned, including offering employees a choice between remaining in the current defined benefit plan or choosing a lower-cost defined contribution plan, with the goal of reducing costs and unfunded liabilities over time.
Fred Dickson, Chief Investment Strategist for DA Davidson spoke at the Southern Oregon Business Conference on January 26, 2011. While our region has some specific challenges, it is good to hear that we are avoiding a double-dip recession and we can expect to continue a slow recovery.
The document discusses the state of the US budget and debt prior to and under the Trump administration. The key points are:
- When Trump took office, debt was at a post-WWII high of over 100% of GDP and projected to rise sharply due to tax cuts, spending increases, and entitlement growth.
- Major trust funds were projected to become insolvent in the early-to-mid 2020s, requiring cuts up to 30% to benefits.
- Tax cuts, spending increases, and making temporary policies permanent could lead to trillion dollar annual deficits by 2027 and debt exceeding 108% of GDP.
- Entitlement growth and rising interest costs will exacerbate long-term debt problems if reforms are
CRFB Webinar - Where Do We Stand on the National Debt - june 29 2020CRFBGraphics
On June 29th, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget Policy Director Marc Goldwein gave a webinar detailing where the national debt and deficit stand in the post-COVID environment, featuring CRFB's updated 10-year budget projections. This slide deck accompanied that webinar.
CRFB Chartbook - Reducing the Tax Gap - 07/14/2021CRFBGraphics
The document discusses estimates of the US tax gap, which is the difference between taxes owed and taxes paid. Some key points:
- The annual tax gap is estimated at around $550 billion for tax year 2019, or about 2.6% of GDP.
- Most of the tax gap comes from underreporting of income, particularly from business income which has little mandatory information reporting.
- Increasing IRS funding for enforcement and expanding information reporting could significantly reduce the tax gap. The Biden plan is estimated to generate over $700 billion in reduced tax gap over 10 years.
CRFB Webinar - The COVID-19 Economic Crisis, the Federal Response, and Our Ri...CRFBGraphics
This brief presentation contains a number of charts and other visualizations that help make sense of our nation’s fiscal state prior to the onset of the pandemic, the nature and scale of the current economic crisis, how the Federal Government has responded thus far, and the future implications of that response for the federal budget, deficit and debt.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget published the only existing comprehensive study to detail and compare the fiscal cost of President Donald Trump and Vice President Joe Biden's campaign agendas. We estimate that both candidates would add trillions to the debt – but in very different ways.
The document summarizes the Austin Independent School District's budget outlook and challenges for fiscal year 2012. It notes declining local property values and expected state funding cuts of $2-5 billion. This would result in a budget shortfall for AISD of $94-114 million. To close this gap, AISD proposes reductions like increasing class sizes, employee furloughs, and using $31 million of its fund balance, with more cuts needed if state funding is reduced further. Maintaining adequate fund balance is important for the district's credit rating and borrowing ability.
This document summarizes Illinois' fiscal situation and recent budget debates. It notes that while the FY2013 budget was based on one-time revenues, the FY2014 budget maintains the same spending levels. It expresses concerns that this does not prepare for lower revenues in FY2015. The document also discusses Illinois' massive pension debt and underfunding, as well as the state's poor economic growth and job losses compared to other states. It advocates pension reform and policies to promote business growth and job creation in order to improve Illinois' fiscal health.
This document summarizes Illinois' fiscal situation and recent budget debates. It notes that while the FY2013 budget was based on one-time revenues, the FY2014 budget maintains the same spending levels. It expresses concerns that this does not prepare for lower revenues in FY2015. The document also discusses Illinois' massive pension debt and underfunding, as well as the state's poor economic growth and job losses compared to other states. It advocates pension reform and policies to promote business growth and job creation in order to address Illinois' fiscal challenges.
This document summarizes a presentation by the Congressional Budget Office on how retirement wealth in the form of defined benefit (DB) and defined contribution (DC) pension plans is distributed among American families. It finds that between 1989 and 2019, retirement wealth became more concentrated, though less so than non-retirement wealth. DB assets remained more evenly distributed than DC assets. The phaseout of DB plans likely contributed to increased wealth inequality. Methodological inputs had a relatively small effect on estimates of wealth concentration.
The document summarizes Maryland's fiscal year 2013 budget and priorities under Governor Martin O'Malley. It highlights job creation, education funding, health care expansion, crime reduction, and maintaining a balanced budget through spending cuts and limited tax increases on high earners. Over $3.6 billion is allocated to capital projects focused on education, health, transportation, and economic development to support an estimated 52,000 jobs.
2011 Jobs Act & Deficit Plan Overview And Summary (2)pspizzirri
The document summarizes President Obama's 2011 jobs and deficit proposals. It outlines the goals of spurring short-term job growth and long-term deficit reduction. It then provides details on proposed spending cuts across multiple federal programs and agencies, as well as tax increases on high-income individuals and changes to business tax rules, projected to reduce the deficit by over $4 trillion over 10 years.
State Pensions-- Working Towards a Gradual TurnaroundEmily Jackson
This document summarizes the state of US state pension plans. It notes that while unfunded pension liabilities grew significantly after the recession, recent reforms and market gains are expected to gradually reduce the burden over the next few years. As of 2012, unfunded liabilities totaled over $1 trillion when including local governments. States have implemented reforms like reduced benefits, shifting to defined contribution plans, and hybrid plans to address shortfalls. Increasing disclosure requirements are also expected to bring more attention to the issue and encourage further reforms.
Presentation by Heidi Golding, an analyst in CBO’s National Security Division, at the Southern Economic Association Annual Meeting.
In this presentation, CBO provides background information on the VA health care system and past spending and describes 10-year projections by CBO on VA health spending under three different scenarios. CBO finds that, under certain assumptions, future spending required to treat veterans may be substantially higher (in inflation-adjusted dollars) than recent appropriations.
This document summarizes federal spending cuts from 2011 to 2014. It shows that $2.4 trillion in deficit reduction has been achieved through $1.7 trillion in discretionary spending cuts and $700 billion in revenue increases. However, the automatic budget cuts known as sequestration are set to take effect in 2013, imposing additional cuts. The House and Senate budgets propose different approaches, with the House keeping sequestration cuts but shifting them from defense to non-defense, while the Senate would replace sequestration. Specific impacts on programs like the CDC, Medicaid and Medicare are noted.
The Florida Community Loan Fund is a statewide CDFI that has provided over $230 million in financing to projects totaling $768 million over its 20 year history. It has experienced significant growth, increasing its assets by 77% and the capital it manages by 50% from 2012 to 2015. The organization provides loans for housing, community facilities, and economic development throughout Florida, with a focus on low-income communities.
Where does your tax dollars go? Who pays federal taxes? What are tax expenditures? We explain the U.S. federal tax system in a few easy-to-understand charts. See more resources at http://www.fixthedebt.org/tax-reform-resource-page
CBO estimates that expected annual economic losses total $54 billion (adjusted to remove the effects of inflation) for most types of damage caused by storm surges, hurricane winds, and heavy precipitation. Expected annual federal spending in response to hurricane winds and storm-related flooding totals $17 billion.
Presentation by Terry Dinan (from CBO's Microeconomic Studies Division) at a Congressional Research Service seminar.
The document outlines Ohio's $35 billion FY2014 budget, including sources of revenue and areas of spending, and shows that the state has made progress paying down its backlog of unpaid bills while also paying down debt from pension obligation bonds issued in 2010-2011. Key areas of general revenue fund spending include Medicaid/healthcare, pensions, education, and human services, while income and sales taxes are major sources of revenue.
The document discusses Illinois' severely underfunded state pension systems. It notes that the total unfunded liability is $85.5 billion as of June 30, 2010, and the funded ratio is only 38.3%. Several reform proposals are mentioned, including offering employees a choice between remaining in the current defined benefit plan or choosing a lower-cost defined contribution plan, with the goal of reducing costs and unfunded liabilities over time.
Fred Dickson, Chief Investment Strategist for DA Davidson spoke at the Southern Oregon Business Conference on January 26, 2011. While our region has some specific challenges, it is good to hear that we are avoiding a double-dip recession and we can expect to continue a slow recovery.
The document discusses the state of the US budget and debt prior to and under the Trump administration. The key points are:
- When Trump took office, debt was at a post-WWII high of over 100% of GDP and projected to rise sharply due to tax cuts, spending increases, and entitlement growth.
- Major trust funds were projected to become insolvent in the early-to-mid 2020s, requiring cuts up to 30% to benefits.
- Tax cuts, spending increases, and making temporary policies permanent could lead to trillion dollar annual deficits by 2027 and debt exceeding 108% of GDP.
- Entitlement growth and rising interest costs will exacerbate long-term debt problems if reforms are
CRFB Webinar - Where Do We Stand on the National Debt - june 29 2020CRFBGraphics
On June 29th, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget Policy Director Marc Goldwein gave a webinar detailing where the national debt and deficit stand in the post-COVID environment, featuring CRFB's updated 10-year budget projections. This slide deck accompanied that webinar.
CRFB Webinar - What's the Status of COVID Relief Money - June 2, 2020CRFBGraphics
On Tuesday, June 2nd, 2020, CRFB Policy Director Marc Goldwein gave a webinar presentation on the current status of economic support funds provided by Congress through several major pieces of legislation passed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and related economic crisis. This slide deck accompanied that presentation.
CRFB Webinar - Unpacking the Latest COVID Relief Package - April 22, 2020CRFBGraphics
Earlier this week, the Senate passed the Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act – the fourth piece of legislation aimed at providing economic relief in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak.
On Wednesday, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget hosted a webinar in which Senior Vice President and Senior Policy Director Marc Goldwein broke down and answered questions regarding the bill and recent actions taken by Congress, the Executive Branch, and the Federal Reserve in response to the COVID-19 crisis.
CRFB webinar - Where Does the Next Phase of COVID Relief Stand - July 31, 2020CRFBGraphics
Lawmakers on Capitol Hill have been negotiating over a new package of economic and public health support to combat COVID-19. Congress has already enacted $3.7 trillion of spending, tax cuts and deferrals, loans, and other fiscal aid, but some of this support is now expiring, particularly expanded unemployment benefits.
On July 31st, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget senior vice president Marc Goldwein presented a webinar titled "Where Does the Next Phase of COVID Relief Stand?" This slide deck was made to accompany that webinar.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released two new outlooks in september that highlight our nation's unsustainable budget trajectory over the next decade and beyond. From the federal debt reaching almost double the size of the economy by 2050, to deficits higher than in any point in modern history, CBO's report shows that our nation's fiscal outlook is much worse than estimated last year.
The document discusses projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) regarding rising US budget deficits and debt levels. It notes that deficits were projected to exceed $1 trillion per year by 2022 under prior law and have increased further due to recent tax and spending legislation. If current policies are extended indefinitely, deficits could reach $2.4 trillion by 2028 and debt could exceed 113% of GDP, posing fiscal and economic risks. Higher interest rates could also significantly increase interest costs and debt levels.
The document summarizes a report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) that finds trillion dollar deficits will return by 2020 under current law. It notes that recent tax cuts and spending increases have increased the projected deficits substantially. The growing costs of Social Security, healthcare programs, and interest on the debt will be the main drivers of spending increases and higher deficits over the long run according to the CBO projections.
More than $590 billion in TARP funds has been spent so far across 25+ federal agencies, making it difficult to track where the money went. Eight major institutions received $200 billion but an analysis found that lending increased by less than $100 million despite $75 billion in capital infusions to Bank of America, JP Morgan, and Citigroup. The document argues that combining public and non-public data into a single view using existing technologies could provide true transparency into how TARP funds were allocated and their impact.
The Bullish Outlook Continues at CCIM Thrive 2014 - Dr. Mark DotzourCCIM Institute
The document discusses positive economic trends in the US including declining household debt levels as a percentage of disposable income and recovering household net worth driven by stock market gains. It also notes that money supply is growing modestly while companies and investment firms have large cash reserves and available capital seeking deals, indicating continued bullishness in financial markets.
The document summarizes a presentation about establishing a public bank in Philadelphia using existing government funds. It discusses how Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports show all government assets and accumulated wealth, not just annual budgets. Currently, Philadelphia raises money through taxes, investments, and issuing bonds at interest rates of 2-5%. The presentation argues the city could create credit itself and receive dividends from a public bank. It provides an example of North Dakota's public bank. The document reviews Philadelphia's pension fund investments and risks, including foreign currency exposure and securities lending. It questions the safety and prudence of hedge fund investments, which often underperform with high fees.
"Business and Market Cycles...We Are in Unique Times. How Are You Positioned?"Ed McCabe
TLF Capital's thoughts on the current business cycle and financial markets. Traditional wealth managers, who generally subscribe to some form of a generic asset allocation model throughout business and market cycles, may not be communicating current conditions, which we do find unique, clearly. We think it is a wise time for investors to think about their current asset allocation. We hope you find the presentation helpful and thought-provoking.
David Rubenstein posed 10 key questions facing the private equity world. These questions addressed issues like whether leverage for buyouts would return, the potential for major defaults of deals completed during the "golden age" of private equity, what areas private equity firms would pursue to achieve targeted returns, and whether now is the right time for investors to pursue private equity investments. The document also discussed sovereign wealth funds and their potential impact on private equity, as well as ways the industry could work to improve its public image.
COVID costs of $5.2 trillion are colossal, exceeding the costs of World War II. Watch our 3/23/21 live broadcast at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2Wy3YFr_VQ
This document outlines various potential local, federal, and private funding sources for project B21-463. It identifies over $10 million available from local DC sources including investment revenue, unused funds, and jail commissary profits. Federal sources include over $5 million from programs like WIOA, the Department of Labor, and the Second Chance Act. Public-private partnerships and microloans from organizations like KivaZip and the SBA are also outlined. Private foundations supporting entrepreneurship education and inclusive entrepreneurship are mentioned as potential supplemental sources.
Similar to Who is Buying Our New COVID-19 Debt? (20)
A primer with answers to all your questions about a federal government shutdown. Such as, What services are affected in a shutdown and how?, How would federal employees be affected?, Does a government shutdown save money?, and more.
This document discusses dynamic scoring and tax reform. It makes three key points:
1) Tax cuts do not pay for themselves through economic growth and increased revenue. Reasonable estimates show that tax cuts generate far less than $1 in revenue for every $1 cut.
2) Smart tax reform has the potential to generate $300-400 billion in additional revenue through dynamic effects, but debt-financed tax cuts have smaller growth effects because debt discourages investment and slows long-term growth.
3) Models that estimate the largest growth effects from tax cuts generally ignore the economic costs of increased debt, instead assuming future tax increases or spending cuts will stabilize debt levels. When debt impacts are considered, revenue-neutral
This document from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) analyzes and compares the fiscal impact of tax and spending proposals from Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. It finds that under current policies, debt is projected to rise to 127% of GDP by 2026. Clinton's proposals could increase debt to between 87-140% of GDP, while Trump's could increase debt to between 90-150% of GDP. To stabilize or reduce debt levels, the candidates' plans would require substantial tax increases, spending cuts, or higher than projected economic growth.
Slides from June 30, 2016 Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget webinar on the June 2016 paper "Promises and Price Tags: A Fiscal Guide to the 2016 Election." Watch the video at http://www.crfb.org/events/watch-promises-and-price-tags-fiscal-guide-2016-election.
A comprehensive fiscal analysis of the policies put forward by presidential candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. It shows how each would affect the federal budget and national debt. See more at http://crfb.org/.
The CBO January baseline report projects that trillion-dollar deficits will return and the national debt will continue rising rapidly as a percentage of GDP. The president's FY2017 budget aims to stabilize the debt ratio by proposing $3.2 trillion in tax increases and $445 billion in health care savings to pay for $1.25 trillion in new spending initiatives and sequester relief. However, the budget would still leave debt levels at post-WWII record highs without putting debt on a clear downward path or sufficiently addressing entitlement reforms.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) 2015 annual report summarizes the organization's work over the past year to promote fiscal responsibility. Some key highlights include: welcoming new leadership; providing bipartisan budget solutions to Congress; increasing media mentions as a trusted source of budget analysis; producing extensive research reports; and engaging in fact-checking during the 2016 presidential campaign to ensure candidates addressed fiscal challenges. The CRFB leveraged respected research and outreach to lawmakers to impact budget policy debates and help move the country toward a more fiscally sustainable path.
Interest payments on the national debt will be the fastest growing part of the federal budget. Learn more about the relationship between interest rates and debt.
The next President will need to confront a number of budgetary challenges and will likely sign into law many federal tax and spending changes. Yet too often, election campaigns are about telling voters what they want to hear rather than what they need to know. To separate fiction from reality, the new Fiscal FactChecker series will monitor the 2016 Presidential campaign on an ongoing basis. To start with, we have identified 16 myths that may come up during the campaign.
August 14 marks the 80th birthday of the Social Security program, which was established in the Social Security Act of 1935. Over the past 80 years, Social Security has provided important cash benefits and income security to seniors, survivors, individuals with disabilities, and their families – including to nearly 60 million people today. Yet Social Security is on a financially unsustainable course – and is not on track to be able to pay full benefits through its 100th birthday.
Sadly, instead of identifying solutions to prevent depletion of the trust funds, many commenters have relied on myths and half-truths to avoid having a conversation about the necessary choices. In this paper, we identify eight such myths – though there are many more
The budget conference committee will negotiate differences between the House and Senate budget resolutions to produce a unified concurrent budget resolution. The committee consists of 30 lawmakers from both chambers. They must agree on top-line spending levels, revenue estimates, and any policy directives. If approved by both chambers, the concurrent resolution establishes guidelines for subsequent appropriations bills but does not enact binding policies or law changes. The last time a budget conference produced a concurrent resolution was in 2009.
Individual income and payroll taxes cover over two-thirds of government spending. In 2015, one-eighth of the government’s spending will be financed by deficits. The top 20% of households pay almost 70% of the nation’s taxes, with the top 1% paying nearly a quarter. Tax expenditures have grown over time and now equal over a quarter of total government spending.
The document summarizes projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on revenues, spending, deficits, and debt under current law and the President's budget. It shows that:
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- Under current policies, debt is projected to continue rising to over 80% of GDP by 2025 according to CBO and OMB estimates.
- The President's budget proposes new initiatives, tax cuts, and health care and other reforms to reduce deficits by around $930 billion compared to a baseline that
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A toxic combination of 15 years of low growth, and four decades of high inequality, has left Britain poorer and falling behind its peers. Productivity growth is weak and public investment is low, while wages today are no higher than they were before the financial crisis. Britain needs a new economic strategy to lift itself out of stagnation.
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6. CRFB.org
The U.S. Is Issuing Trillions in New Debt
Billions of Dollars of Net Debt Increases
Source: Treasury Department
-$12
$9
-$14
$23
$386
$212
$172
$124
$65 $42
$200
$262
$1,379
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20
6
7. CRFB.org
How is Higher Federal Debt Financed?
1. Greater savings (actors spend less and buy bonds)
2. Asset reallocation (actors buy fewer stocks and private
investments and more government bonds)
3. Foreign bond purchases (foreign governments, central
banks, individuals, or companies buy U.S. bonds)
Foreign purchase of private investment can also spur asset reallocation
4. Central bank purchases (the Fed buys bonds)
7
8. CRFB.org
Who Is Buying Our Debt?
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Treasury Department
8
Japan
China
Other Foreign
State & Local Governments
Mutual Funds
Depository Institutions
Other Domestic Holdings
Federal Reserve
$0
$4
$8
$12
$16
$20
Sept. 2019
Trillions
FOREIGN
40%
DOMESTIC
47%
FED
13%
9. CRFB.org
Who Is Buying Our Debt?
Japan Japan Japan
China China China
Other Foreign Other Foreign Other Foreign
State & Local Governments
Mutual Funds
Depository Institutions
Other Domestic Holdings
Domestic Holdings Domestic Holdings
Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Federal Reserve
$0
$4
$8
$12
$16
$20
Sept. 2019 Dec. 2019 Feb. 2020
Trillions
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Treasury Department
9
10. CRFB.org
Who Is Buying Our Debt?
Japan Japan Japan
China China China
Other Foreign Other Foreign Other Foreign
State & Local Governments
Mutual Funds
Depository Institutions
Other Domestic
Holdings
Domestic Holdings Domestic Holdings
Foreign & Domestic
Holdings
Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve
$0
$4
$8
$12
$16
$20
Sept. 2019 Dec. 2019 Feb. 2020 Apr. 2020
Trillions
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Treasury Department
10
14. CRFB.org
Feb. 26th:
$4.16 trillion
May 6th:
$6.68 trillion
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mortgage Backed
Securities
U.S. Treasuries
Other
Quantitative Easing or Debt Monetization?
Trillions
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
$4.02
trillion
$1.61
trillion
$1.06
trillion
14
15. CRFB.org
Mortgage Backed
Securities
U.S. Treasuries
Other
Quantitative Easing or Debt Monetization?
Trillions
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
-$7
-$5
-$3
-$1
$1
$3
$5
$7
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Other Liabilities
Non-Reserve
Deposits
Reserve Deposits
Currency
Treasuries
Mortgage-Backed
Securities
Other Assets
15
16. CRFB.org
Quantitative Easing or Debt Monetization?
Nominal Interest Rates
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Past Recessions
Effective Federal Funds Rate
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York 16
17. CRFB.org
The U.S. Central Bank Isn’t Alone
Billions of Monthly Net Purchases
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Federal Reserve
European Central Bank
Bank of Japan
Bank of England
Bank of Canada
Source: Bloomberg Economics
17
18. CRFB.org
Will The Fed Keep Buying?
The Federal Government will likely issue $2 trillion more in debt
over the next five months (FY2020), alone
Six weeks ago, the Federal Reserve has said they would buy up to
$75 billion in Treasuries per day.
But purchases are slowing - The Federal Reserve has been
tapering purchases and will buy just $7 billion in Treasuries per
day this week
Meanwhile, China has threatened to reduce it’s debt holdings…
18