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The Cost of the Trump and Biden Campaign Plans

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The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget published the only existing comprehensive study to detail and compare the fiscal cost of President Donald Trump and Vice President Joe Biden's campaign agendas. We estimate that both candidates would add trillions to the debt – but in very different ways.

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The Cost of the Trump and Biden Campaign Plans

  1. 1. CRFB.org
  2. 2. CRFB.org Vice President Biden Has a Large and Detailed Agenda JoeBiden.com features 48 plans with more than 800 policy proposals. The Biden Plan would: 2 ▪ Expand access and affordability to child care, pre-school, K-12 education, and higher education ▪ Increase spending on health care and eldercare ▪ Invest in infrastructure, research, and green technologies ▪ Increase Social Security and SSI benefits ▪ Increase taxes, especially on corporations, investors, and high- income households ▪ Reduce prescription drug costs ▪ End engagements in Afghanistan and the Middle East
  3. 3. CRFB.org President Trump Has Ideas As Well DonaldJTrump.com includes a 54-bullet point agenda for his second term well as a ‘Platinum Plan’ for Black Americans. The Trump plan would: 3 ▪ Cut Taxes for Individuals ▪ Create tax incentives for domestic investment and manufacturing ▪ Invest in infrastructure ▪ Expand space travel ▪ Spend more on the military and veterans ▪ Reduce prescription drug costs ▪ End engagements in Afghanistan and the Middle East
  4. 4. CRFB.org Debt Is Headed To a Record High in the Next Term 109% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Percent of GDP
  5. 5. CRFB.org Both Candidates Will Grow the Debt More Note: Dots represent deficit impact excluding one-time policies $0.70 $4.95 $6.85 -$0.15 $5.60 $8.30 -$3 -$2 -$1 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9 Low-Cost Central High-Cost Trump Biden Trillions
  6. 6. CRFB.org Here’s How they Compare in our Central Estimate Trump Biden Child Care and Education -$0.15 trillion -$2.70 trillion Health Care and Long-Term Care $0.15 trillion -$2.05 trillion Social Security, SSI, and Retirement n/a -$1.15 trillion Infrastructure & Other Domestic Spending -$2.70 trillion -$4.45 trillion National Security & Immigration -$0.30 trillion $0.75 trillion Tax Policy -$1.70 trillion $4.30 trillion Interest -$0.25 trillion -$0.30 trillion Net Deficit Effect -$4.95 trillion -$5.60 trillion Memo: Low-to High Estimates -$0.70 to -$6.85 trillion $0.15 to -$8.30 trillion Memo: Permanent Policies Only -$2.45 trillion -$2.35 trillion Trillions
  7. 7. CRFB.org Results May Differ Based on Assumptions Trump Biden Low High Low High Child Care & Education -$0.05 trillion -$0.20 trillion -$2.40 trillion -$3.05 trillion Health Care & Long-Term Care $1.00 trillion $0.15 trillion -$1.00 trillion -$2.40 trillion Social Security, SSI, Retirement n/a n/a -$0.95 trillion -$1.30 trillion Infrastructure & Domestic Spending -$0.75 trillion -$2.95 trillion -$3.00 trillion -$5.50 trillion National Security & Immigration $0.55 trillion -$0.55 trillion $0.95 trillion $0.70 trillion Tax Policy -$1.40 trillion -$2.95 trillion $6.60 trillion $3.65 trillion Interest -$0.05 trillion -$0.35 trillion -$0.05 trillion -$0.40 trillion Net Deficit Effect -$0.70 trillion -$6.85 trillion $0.15 trillion -$8.30 trillion Memo: Permanent Policies Only -$0.20 trillion -$4.10 trillion $2.40 trillion -$4.05 trillion Trillions
  8. 8. CRFB.org The Trump Plan Calls for More Spending and Tax Cuts Low Central High Child Care and Education Provide Universal School Choice -$50 -$50 -$50 Increase Child Care Credits and Access to Preschool $0 -$100 -$150 Subtotal -$50 -$150 -$200 Health Care Cut Prescription Drug Prices and End Surprise Billing $150 $150 $150 Reform Health Care System $850 $0 $0 Subtotal $1,000 $150 $150 Other Domestic Spending Increase Infrastructure Spending -$300 -$2,000 -$2,000 Expand U.S. Presence in Outer Space -$400 -$650 -$900 Support Black-Owned Businesses and Job Training -$50 -$50 -$50 Subtotal -$750 -$2,700 -$2,950 National Security and Immigration Support a Strong National Defense -$200 -$500 -$650 Stop Endless Wars and Bring Troops Home $750 $550 $500 Increase Spending on Veterans -$100 -$400 -$400 Address Illegal Immigration $100 $50 $0 Subtotal $550 -$300 -$550 Billions
  9. 9. CRFB.org The Trump Plan Calls for More Spending and Tax Cuts Low Central High Tax Policy Reduce Individual Taxes -$1,250 -$1,250 -$2,450 Enact “Made in America” and Insourcing Tax Breaks $0 -$50 -$100 Expand Opportunity Zones -$50 -$50 -$50 Allow 100% Expensing for Essential Industries -$100 -$350 -$350 Subtotal -$1,400 -$1,700 -$2,950 Net Interest -$50 -$250 -$350 Total Deficit Impact -$700 -$4,950 -$6,850 Gross Cost of Initiatives -$2,500 -$5,450 -$7,150 Gross Savings from Agenda $1,850 $750 $650 Deficit Impact, Excluding One-Time Policies -$200 -$2,450 -$4,100 Billions
  10. 10. CRFB.org The Biden Plan Calls for More Spending and More Taxes Low Central High Child Care and Education Support Child Care and Universal Pre-K -$300 -$500 -$750 Increase K-12 Education Funding -$600 -$600 -$600 Increase Higher Education Spending -$1,500 -$1,600 -$1,700 Subtotal -$2,400 -$2,700 -$3,050 Health Care and Long-Term Care Expand Health Insurance Coverage -$1,700 -$1,900 -$2,100 Support Elder Care and Long-Term Care -$600 -$600 -$650 Fund Rural Health, Mental Health, and Opioid Crisis -$300 -$300 -$300 Reduce Health Costs $1,300 $450 $350 Revenue Feedback from Health Plan $300 $300 $300 Subtotal -$1,000 -$2,050 -$2,400 Social Security, SSI, and Retirement Expand Social Security -$400 -$400 -$400 Expand Supplemental Security Income -$550 -$700 -$800 Expand Tax Breaks for Older Americans $0 -$50 -$100 Subtotal -$950 -$1,150 -$1,300 Infrastructure, Environment, Other Domestic Spending Invest in Green Infrastructure and American Innovation -$2,000 -$3,000 -$4,000 Expand Affordable Housing -$350 -$750 -$750 Provide Universal Paid Leave -$550 -$550 -$550 Other Domestic Spending -$100 -$150 -$200 Subtotal -$3,000 -$4,450 -$5,500 Billions
  11. 11. CRFB.org The Biden Plan Calls for More Spending and More Taxes Low Central High National Security and Immigration End Wars in Afghanistan and Middle East $750 $550 $500 Pass Immigration Reform $200 $200 $200 Subtotal $950 $750 $700 Tax Policy Increase Corporate Taxes $1,950 $1,800 $1,500 Increase Individual and Pass-Through Taxes $2,300 $1,400 $1,200 Increase Social Security Payroll Tax Maximum $1,000 $900 $800 Establish a Financial Risk Fee on Large Banks $350 $100 $100 Improve Tax Compliance $1,000 $100 $50 Subtotal $6,600 $4,300 $3,650 Net Interest -$50 -$300 -$400 Total Deficit Impact $150 -$5,600 -$8,300 Gross Cost of Initiatives -$8,950 -$11,100 -$12,900 Gross Savings from Agenda $9,150 $5,800 $5,000 Deficit Impact, Excluding One-Time Policies $2,400 -$2,350 -$4,050 Billions
  12. 12. CRFB.org Under Either Plan, Debt Will Explode 109% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Percent of GDP
  13. 13. CRFB.org Under Either Plan, Debt Will Explode 109% 125% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Current Law Trump Central Percent of GDP
  14. 14. CRFB.org Under Either Plan, Debt Will Explode 109% 128% 125% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Current Law Biden Central Trump Central Percent of GDP
  15. 15. CRFB.org Under Either Plan, Debt Will Explode 109% 128% 125% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Biden Range Trump Range Current Law Biden Central Trump Central Percent of GDP
  16. 16. CRFB.org 16 ▪ Both candidates would worsen an already dismal fiscal situation ▪ CBO projects deficits will total $13 trillion over the next ten years, and debt will reach 109% of GDP by the end of 2030. Under our central estimates: ▪ President Trump would add $4.95 trillion and increase debt to 125% of GDP ▪ Vice President Biden would add $5.6 trillion and increase debt to 128% of GDP ▪ Biden’s plan is vast, with over 800 proposals. He would massively increase spending and offset half the cost through tax increases on corporations and high-earners ▪ Trump’s plan is bullet-pointed and very sparse. He would increase spending significantly while also cutting taxes ▪ Both candidates support large infrastructure packages, lower drug prices, expanded tax breaks for child care, and ending the wars in Afghanistan and the middle-east. ▪ The candidates are polar opposites on issues like taxes (Biden’s plan would increase by $4.3 trillion, Trump’s would reduce by $1.7 trillion) and immigration. Summary Findings
  17. 17. CRFB.org You Can Learn More by Reading the Paper http://www.crfb.org/us-budget-watch-2020

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