Leadership In The 4th Wave

Leadership in the 4th Wave
Guy Dumas

Story Jacket Consultants

August 10, 2012

http://www.storyjacket.com

LEADERSHIP IN THE 4TH WAVE 2

Introduction

By 2022, the concept of leadership, in whatever spirit, identity, and behavior it
takes, will be immersed in the “generation of network intelligence” (TEDGlobal, 2012) as
a result of exponential technologies, creativity, adaptability, openness and particularly,
innovation and entrepreneurial practices (Diamandis and Kotler, 2012; Sirois, 2000;
Anderson, 2006; Li, 2010; Drucker, 1985). It is safe to say; the age of network
intelligence will require different values “to revolutionize kindness, redefine happiness
and success, and rekindle community bonds powerful enough to change your life and
the lives of everyone around you” (Kielburger’s, 2006, p. iv). Drucker (1985) stated,
entrepreneurs, “create something new, something different; they change or transmute
values” (p.22). It will most likely be entrepreneurs or the business community to solidify
the age of network intelligence with the guidance of the physicist community.
The world is in the second decade of the 21st century where there is no obvious
shelf life. When Bennis (2001, pp. 3-13), wrote about the future having no shelf life, I
wonder how many readers believed what he was saying would become amazingly
accurate? There is no obvious shelf life for leadership concepts; however leadership
will certainly be an essential part of societal change with the underpinning of
technology.
Having gone through or still going through “the three revolutionary forces –
information technology, communications and biotechnology – has brought about the
demise of one way of living and given birth to another, which is evolving at breakneck
speed” (Sirois, 2000, p.2). “Things are moving so fast that the innovations of a single
decade will soon equal those of the entire previous century” (Sirois, 2000, p.29).
Moore’s Law is exponential growth, where it “states that every eighteen months, the
number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles, which essentially means that
every eighteen months computers get twice as fast for the same price” (Diamandis and
Kotler, 2012, p. 53).
The Chinese curse about living in fascinating times is upon us. Of course, every
generation would say that. However, those words of wisdom seem to be more
pronounced today than any other time in history.


The waves of change

The last three waves of change are well known as the agriculture, industrial and
knowledge/information waves (Toffler, 1980). However, the identity of the 4th wave is
still open for a vote. The physicist, Dr. Michio Kaku, refers to these waves as steam
power, electricity, high technology and advanced technology for the fourth wave, of
which he speaks of as perfect capitalism (Situfla, 2012). Exhibit 1 summarizes the
characteristics of the four waves.

Exhibit 1
Knowledge/information wave Fourth (Network Intelligence) wave
• Worker ownership • Perfect capitalism
• Balance and sustainability • Servant
• Crested 2008 • Stewardship
• We are connected and must • We are one and choose to co-
cooperate create
• Do we understand the need? • Openness
• Are we creating value? • Communitarian
• High technology • Advanced technology
Industrial wave Agriculture wave
• Stockholder business owner • Started 8000 BC
• Materialism • Ended 1650 – 1750
• Supremacy of man • Steam power
• Crested 1955
• We are separate, and we must
compete
• Are we making money?
• Are we beating the competition?
• Electricity
Sources: Toffler (1980); Maynard (1996); Kaku (2012); Li (2010)


No one can predict the future with complete accuracy because of multiple
uncertainties. All the best predictive instruments can never fully explain what tomorrow
will look, act and be like, however, “Kurzweil used his exponential growth charts to
make a handful of predictions about the future. Now, certainly inventors and intellectuals
are always making predictions, but his turned out to be uncannily accurate: foretelling
the demise of the Soviet Union, a computer’s winning the chess championship, the rise
of intelligent, computerized weapons in warfare, autonomous cars, and, perhaps most
famously, the World Wide Web” (Diamandis and Kotler, 2012, p. 55).
Knowles (1980, p.41) describes a famous philosopher by the name of Alfred
North Whitehead, who said, “today this time – span is considerably shorter than that of
human life, and accordingly our training must prepare individuals to face a novelty of
conditions”. The following is an attempt to portray Whitehead’s theory graphically.

Exhibit 2

Years if individual longevity
25 30 40 50 70

Ancient Rome Renaissance 18th-19thCentury 20th Century

At the time, Knowles (1980) described cultural change as “massive inputs of new
knowledge, technological innovation, vocational displacement, population mobility, and
change in political and economic systems” (p.41).
Major cultural change occurred three to four times faster in the 20th century than
in the previous periods. Cultural change in the 21st century will be just as fast or faster
because the world is now more global and exponential. Gates (1999) shared, “If the
1980’s were about quality and the 1990’s were about reengineering, then the 2000’s will
be about velocity” (p. xiii). Today, velocity is given.


21st century innovation opportunity

Joseph Schumpeter discussed economic dynamics as having expansion and
contraction properties; therefore the 21st century will also see recovery and prosperity
occur several times during the period. Forstater (2007), found “Schumpeter concluded
that the principal driving force disrupting the stationary state of the economy was
technological progress (or innovation)” (p.120).
In Drucker’s (1985, pp. 37 - 127) book, Innovation and entrepreneurship, he
presents systemic innovation, meaning innovation opportunity. Drucker discusses
seven sources of innovation opportunity of which the first four are internal, while the
remaining three are external aspects. The four internal source areas are:

• The unexpected – the unexpected success, failure and outside event;
• The incongruity – between reality as it actually is and reality as it is assumed to
be;
• Innovation – based on process need;
• Changes in industry structure.

The three external source areas are:

• Demographics (population changes);
• Changes in perception, mood, and meaning;
• New knowledge, both scientific and non-scientific.

Evolving theories of leadership

In order to deal effectively with the four internal aspects of innovation opportunity,
an appropriate leadership approach is required. There are six basic approaches as
suggested by Daft (2008, pp. 19-20) and they include the great man, trait, behavior,
contingency, influence and relational theories. Other leadership concepts and the six
basic approaches are found in the waves of change:


Exhibit 3
Knowledge/information wave Network Intelligence wave

Influence theories Relational theories (Daft, 2008)
Level five leadership (Maxwell, 2010)
Open leadership (Li, 2010)
Industrial wave Agricultural wave

Behavior theories Great man theories
Contingency theories Trait theories

Source: adapted from Daft (2008)

If specific competencies are a requirement in the 4th wave, then the most
common ones are the ability to learn, business technical knowledge, communication
skills, cosmopolitan world view, entrepreneurial, ethics, initiative, interpersonal skills,
negotiation, organizational, problem solving, stamina, teaching, teamwork, and vision
(Dantzer, 2000). These are remarkably similar to the behaviors described by the youth
as discussed by Bennis, Spreitzer and Cummings, (2001, pp. 153 – 157).

Demographics – Labour force change

Foot (1998) insists that demographics describe two thirds of everything. He also
says “Demography, the study of human populations, is the most powerful – and most
underutilized - tool we have to understand the past and foretell the future” (p.8).
Demographics help in the planning process. Leaders, in the next ten years, will be
engaging a specific labour force with preferred leadership expectations.
The Canadian population grew by 5.9% during 2006 to 2011 (Statistics Canada).
It can be expected to grow at relatively the same rate in the next ten years.


Exhibit 4
Canada
Age characteristics Total Male Female
Total population by age groups 4 33,476,685 16,414,225 17,062,460
0 to 4 years 1,877,095 961,150 915,945
5 to 9 years 1,809,895 925,965 883,935
10 to 14 years 1,920,355 983,995 936,360
15 to 19 years 2,178,135 1,115,845 1,062,295
20 to 24 years 2,187,450 1,108,775 1,078,670
25 to 29 years 2,169,590 1,077,275 1,092,315
30 to 34 years 2,162,905 1,058,810 1,104,095
35 to 39 years 2,173,930 1,064,200 1,109,735
40 to 44 years 2,324,875 1,141,720 1,183,155
45 to 49 years 2,675,130 1,318,715 1,356,420
50 to 54 years 2,658,965 1,309,030 1,349,940
55 to 59 years 2,340,635 1,147,300 1,193,335
60 to 64 years 2,052,670 1,002,690 1,049,985
65 to 69 years 1,521,715 738,010 783,705
70 to 74 years 1,153,065 543,435 609,630
75 to 79 years 922,700 417,945 504,755
80 to 84 years 702,070 291,085 410,985
85 years and over 645,515 208,300 437,215
Median age of the population 5 40.6 39.6 41.5
% of the population aged 15 and over 83.2 82.5 84.0

Source: Statistics Canada

Based on the 2011 Canadian census there are 22,924,285 people in the
workforce. By 2021, the scheduled Canadian census will identify approximately
23,881,865 people in the workforce.
There is certainly going to be a change in the composition of the labour force by
2050. According to Mitra (2002, May) there were 18.4 million women in the workforce in
1950, and it jumped to 65.6 million in 2000. By the year 2050, there will be 91.5 million
women in the workforce compared to 100.2 million men. In other word, there will be
over 191.8 million people in the workforce with men accounting for approximately 52%
and woman 48%.


The percentage change amongst women between 1950 and 2000 is an
incredible 256.8 percent change, while in the same time men changed 71.7%. Change
amongst women in the workforce will slow down and grow and the same rate as men
between 2000 and 2050. If the four components of slowdown in the growth of the
labour force, changes in the gender structure of the labour force, changes in the age
structure of the labour force and changes in the racial and ethnic composition of the
labour force, leadership will need to adapt to these changes.

The perception of plenty during the 4th wave

The previous waves are easier to interpret because they already happened,
unlike the future. Hindsight is 20/20. Toffler (1980) claims he was not the first one to
use the analogy of waves to show civilizational shifts from one era to the next. Toffler
mentions Norbert Elias describing it as “a wave of advancing integration over several
centuries” (p.5). Toffler (1980) goes on to say, “In 1837, a writer described the
settlement of the American West in terms of successive waves – first the pioneers, then
the farmers, then the business interests, the third wave of migration” (p.5).
If we use the well reported and thoroughly documented period of 2008 as the
ending point of the third wave, we can say we are in the infancy stage of the 4th wave.
The 4th wave has no agreed name yet. However, there are a few suggestions. Dr.
Kaku describes the 4th wave as perfect capitalism to include advanced technology such
as artificial intelligence, robotics, infinite computing, ubiquitous broadband networks,
digital manufacturing, nanomaterials, synthetic biology, while Diamandis and Kotler
(2012) describe this period as Abundance.
Diamandis and Kotler (2012) describe abundance (TheSasss1, 2011) as
“creating a world of possibility: a world where everyone’s days are spent dreaming and
doing, not scrapping and scraping” (p.13). Diamandis and Kotler have developed an
abundance pyramid similar to the well – known Maslow’s hierarchy of human needs.
They present three levels, while Maslow’s model has five levels. There is more
similarity than differences in the models.


Exhibit 5

Health and Freedom

Energy, education and
information/communication

Sufficient water, food and
shelter

Source: Diamandis and Kotler 2012

As Diamandis and Kotler (2012) explain, “Over the past 150,000 years, Homo
sapiens evolved in a world that was local and linear, but today’s environment is global
and exponential” (p.34). The first three waves were local and linear, and the 4th wave is
clearly global and exponential!
Yunus (2008) publicly supports the concept of Globalization; however he appears
cautious when he says, “Globalization, as a general business principle, can bring more
benefits to the poor than any alternative. But, without proper oversight and guidelines,
globalization has the potential to be highly destructive” (p.5).
Globalization is here to stay. A project by the SUNY Levin Institute called
Globalization 101 provides a learning web platform on numerous challenges and
concerns around:

• Trade
• Environment
• Media
• Development
• Women
• Investment
• Technology


• Culture
• Migration
• Human rights
• IMF/World bank
• Energy
• Education
• Health
• International law

Teachers can access the learning material for various purposes. There are many
online resources that promote and support the idea of globalization.
Bennis, Spreitzer and Cummings, (2001, pp. 153 – 157) identify what youth think
successful leaders must develop in the expanding global workplace:

• Communicate a global vision
• Be technologically savvy
• Embrace an open – minded leadership style
• Champion diversity (style, culture, and leadership)
• Display flexibility and respect towards employees
• Foster a corporate culture of teamwork
• Strengthen charisma
• Be ethical

New knowledge – Advanced technology

The following information reflects my notes of new knowledge from viewing the
Youtube video of Dr. Kaku (CUNYQueensborough ,2009, October 28).
“In 2030, a chip will cost .01. Where there is internet, there is prosperity. People
will access the internet through a pair of glasses or contact lenses, which is augmented
reality. The internet is the virtual library where anyone with internet access can read


anything they want. Of course, by this time, the credibility of the internet has ascended.
Cell phones will be a complete PC. Wall paper will be intelligent. People will engage
their wall. The internet is female. During war times, the internet was to dominate the
enemy. Today, the internet is female. They want to connect. To touch people. The
internet began as a war fighting machine to a tool that connects. The computer
constructs the office environment. The files are more valuable than computers because
the computer will only cost pennies.
The car will have no driver. GPS is the secret to driving the car. Traffic
accidents, traffic jams can disappear. Health issues will disappear. The toilet will
display everything about your health. The toilet will analyze proteins. Chips scattered
throughout the bathroom. Complete medical examination. Genes can be read. Genes
are equivalent owner’s manual. Organs can be reproduced. Today bone, skin, blood
vessels can be grown in the lab. Shortly, other organs can be grown. Computer power
can augment human life.
Azimo is the first advanced Artificial intelligence. It takes six hours to walk across
the room. Robots need to be programmed. Japan is the fastest aging population on
earth. That is why Japan is building these robots to serve as nursing aids. Invisibility is
possible with a microwave invisibility cloth. Meta-materials let things to be bent.
Quantum teleportation is possible. Telepathy is coming faster than people think. A chip
in the human brain will provide access and connection to the internet. Dreams may be
photographed by a computer. In 50 years, there will be a star ship. Time and space
may be bent. Dust clouds cover the raging black hole. Time travel is possible. There
are four types of civilizations. Type 0 is present civilization. Type 1 controls the
planets. Type 2 controls the entire stars. Type 3 controls the entire galaxy”.


Conclusion

The idea of predictability is controversial. However, as Heijden (2005) indicated,
“If everything was predictable, there would be no room for strategizing. If nothing was
predictable, strategizing would make no sense” (p. 92).
Society is in the early stages of the 4th wave. Leadership based on such
concepts as open leadership (Li, 2010), and primal leadership (Goleman, 2002) are
going to succeed.
Exponential growth is responsible for advanced Technology. Exponential growth
is just doubling numbers, where 1 becomes 2, 2 becomes 4 and 4 becomes 8 and so
forth. Diamandis and Kotler (2012) stated, “This astounding increase in computer
power, speed, and memory, coupled with a concurrent drop in both price and size, is
exponential change at work” (p. 54).
Technology enables an abundant life. People will now choose between reality
and augmented reality in an infinite world.


References

Anderson, C. (2006). The long tail: Why the future of business is selling less of more.
New York, NY: Hyperion

Bennis, W. Spreitzer, G, and Cummings, T. (2001). The future of leadership. Today’s
top leadership thinkers speak to tomorrow’s leaders. San Francisco, CA: Jossey –
Bass.

CUNYQueensborough (2009, October 28). The world in 2030 by Dr. Michio Kaku.
Retrieved on August 8 from http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=219YybX66MY

Daft, R. (2008). The leadership experience. Mason, OH: South – Western Cengage
Learning.

Dantzer, M. Ruth (2000). Leadership requirements in the 21st century: The perceptions
of Canadian public sector leaders. Ph.D. Dissertation, Andrews University, United
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Diamandis, P. & Kotler, S. (2012). Abundance: The future is better than you think. New
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Drucker. P. (1985). Innovation and entrepreneurship. New York, NY: HarperCollins
Publishers, Inc.

Drucker, P. (1993). Post – capitalist society. New York, NY: HarperCollins Publishers,
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Foot, D. (1998). Boom, bust and echo 2000. Toronto, Ontario: Macfarlane Walter &
Ross.


Forstater, M. (2007). Little book of big ideas: Economics. London, UK: Elwin Street
Limited.

Gates, W. (1999). Business at the speed of thought: Using a digital nervous system.
New York, NY: Warner Books, Inc.

Situfla, (2012), Michio Kaku – The Fourth Wave @ Telefonica Leadership Conference 2012
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OWLwXnhlFo

Kielburger, C. and Kielburger, M. (2006). Me to We: Finding meaning in a material
world. Mississauga, ON: John Wiley and Sons.

Knowles, Malcolm. (1980). The Modern Practice of Adult Education: From Pedagogy to
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Li, C. (2010). Open Leadership: How social technology can transform the way you lead.
San Francisco, CA: Jossey - Bass

Maynard, H., Jr, and Mehrtens, S. (1996). The Fourth Wave. San Francisco, CA:
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Mitra Toossi. (2002, May). A century of change: The U.S. labor force, 1950-2050.
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Statistics Canada (n.d.) Retrieved on August 08, 2012 from
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pd/prof/details/page.cfm?Lang=E&Geo1=PR&Code1=01&Geo2=PR&Code2=0
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Yunus, M. (2007). Creating a world without poverty: Social business and the future of
capitalism. New York, NY: Public Affairs.

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