The document discusses horizon scanning and wild cards as tools for shaping desirable futures and preparing for potential shocks and disruptions. It defines wild cards as low-probability but high-impact events that could significantly alter society and the future course of events. Both naturally-caused and human-caused wild cards are examined, with the latter being influenced by ideas, communication, and the potential for self-fulfilling prophecies. The value of wild card identification is discussed as a way to increase policy resilience and monitor early signals of disruptive changes. However, human-caused wild cards also pose risks if used to propagate undesirable narratives. Careful analysis of motivations and cultural contexts is needed when horizon scanning for potential wild cards.
This document discusses future foresight and trends. It begins by noting how much has changed in just 20 years and some predictions for the next 10 years, including advances in areas like biotechnology, nanotechnology, and renewable energy. It then discusses concepts like megatrends, weak signals, scenarios, and different levels of foresight from macro to micro. Various tools for futures work are presented, along with sources for finding weak signals and trends. Population aging and its economic impacts are highlighted. The importance of foresight for strategic management is stressed, and motivations of future employees are considered.
This presentation was held for the FTA conference. It stresses the importance of "Wild card and impact rich issue" narratives as instruments that are used by individuals and groups as mean to influence future developments.
Future of education: Learning and teaching in an ICT revolutionising worldVictor Van Rij
The document discusses the need for visionary policies and teaching approaches to prepare society for an increasingly technology-driven world. It summarizes that previous communication revolutions transformed society and education needs. To thrive in today's ICT revolution, students must learn digital literacy, collaboration, and continuous skills updating. However, not all will achieve these competencies without support. Teachers require training and schools need equipment upgrades. Curricula must incorporate fast-changing ICT skills. Significant investments are needed from governments and industry to implement new education strategies and technologies.
The document discusses horizon scanning, which involves systematically searching for potential issues that could have a high impact on important matters. It compares horizon scanning processes in the UK, Netherlands, and Denmark. While the aims and methods differ slightly, there is a large overlap in the issues identified. Horizon scanning can feed into policymaking and research agendas but challenges include prioritizing issues and connecting to other scans. The document argues that horizon scanning should involve democratic, participatory processes to better serve knowledge democracy and governance.
Victorvan Rij Sesti weaksignals Cognitive Enhancement2010Victor Van Rij
The document discusses cognitive enhancement and identifies weak signals related to its development. It covers:
1) Past and potential future pathways of cognitive enhancement, including social/educational and biological methods.
2) Hopes for enhancement like preventing impairment, and fears around risks to humanity.
3) A search identifying 40 weak signals, mostly in biology and tools, with few on social/psychological impacts.
4) Key emerging issues relate to neuroimaging, implants, drugs and genetics raising concerns around ethics, equality and eugenics.
5) Further analysis is needed on costs/benefits of different enhancement methods and priorities between performance vs. development. weak signals were somewhat limited in identifying societal and economic impacts.
Sesti project: Global Sustainable Energy optionsVictor Van Rij
This presentation gives the result of the emerging issues analysis of the SESTI project on the energy domain in 2010. It provides the questions around 5 of the less well known future sustainable options/risks that were discussed in the project. The topics that were addressed are still worth while to review today.
These topics were :
1. Enhancement of the photosynthetic cycle on global scale to provide all food, energy and maintain biodiversity (briefly biomimics)
2. Use of desert areas for gaining solar energy (the DESERTEC scheme)
3. Hybrid nuclear fission-fusion to speed up nuclear fusion
4. The unknown risks of going deeper and further for energy mining
5. The unknown risks of and hydrogen leaking economy
This document discusses future foresight and trends. It begins by noting how much has changed in just 20 years and some predictions for the next 10 years, including advances in areas like biotechnology, nanotechnology, and renewable energy. It then discusses concepts like megatrends, weak signals, scenarios, and different levels of foresight from macro to micro. Various tools for futures work are presented, along with sources for finding weak signals and trends. Population aging and its economic impacts are highlighted. The importance of foresight for strategic management is stressed, and motivations of future employees are considered.
This presentation was held for the FTA conference. It stresses the importance of "Wild card and impact rich issue" narratives as instruments that are used by individuals and groups as mean to influence future developments.
Future of education: Learning and teaching in an ICT revolutionising worldVictor Van Rij
The document discusses the need for visionary policies and teaching approaches to prepare society for an increasingly technology-driven world. It summarizes that previous communication revolutions transformed society and education needs. To thrive in today's ICT revolution, students must learn digital literacy, collaboration, and continuous skills updating. However, not all will achieve these competencies without support. Teachers require training and schools need equipment upgrades. Curricula must incorporate fast-changing ICT skills. Significant investments are needed from governments and industry to implement new education strategies and technologies.
The document discusses horizon scanning, which involves systematically searching for potential issues that could have a high impact on important matters. It compares horizon scanning processes in the UK, Netherlands, and Denmark. While the aims and methods differ slightly, there is a large overlap in the issues identified. Horizon scanning can feed into policymaking and research agendas but challenges include prioritizing issues and connecting to other scans. The document argues that horizon scanning should involve democratic, participatory processes to better serve knowledge democracy and governance.
Victorvan Rij Sesti weaksignals Cognitive Enhancement2010Victor Van Rij
The document discusses cognitive enhancement and identifies weak signals related to its development. It covers:
1) Past and potential future pathways of cognitive enhancement, including social/educational and biological methods.
2) Hopes for enhancement like preventing impairment, and fears around risks to humanity.
3) A search identifying 40 weak signals, mostly in biology and tools, with few on social/psychological impacts.
4) Key emerging issues relate to neuroimaging, implants, drugs and genetics raising concerns around ethics, equality and eugenics.
5) Further analysis is needed on costs/benefits of different enhancement methods and priorities between performance vs. development. weak signals were somewhat limited in identifying societal and economic impacts.
Sesti project: Global Sustainable Energy optionsVictor Van Rij
This presentation gives the result of the emerging issues analysis of the SESTI project on the energy domain in 2010. It provides the questions around 5 of the less well known future sustainable options/risks that were discussed in the project. The topics that were addressed are still worth while to review today.
These topics were :
1. Enhancement of the photosynthetic cycle on global scale to provide all food, energy and maintain biodiversity (briefly biomimics)
2. Use of desert areas for gaining solar energy (the DESERTEC scheme)
3. Hybrid nuclear fission-fusion to speed up nuclear fusion
4. The unknown risks of going deeper and further for energy mining
5. The unknown risks of and hydrogen leaking economy
The document summarizes the objectives and activities of the SESTI project, which is funded by the European Commission to research methods for identifying emerging science and technology issues. The project aims to assess scanning tools and methods for early warnings and explore ways to connect scanning results to the policymaking community. SESTI focuses on healthcare, energy, and other sectors, examining organizational changes, science/technology developments, and public perceptions. It defines "wild cards" as surprising events that could significantly impact the future and discusses identifying and analyzing potential wild cards through published narratives and discussion of them.
This is A Dutch presentation arguing that the concept of "life expectancy" is rather covering up the fact that mortality chance is sharp increasing after certain ages and moreover very dependent on education level and sex. If wanted I can translate the presentation to English
Responsibility of universities. Future of university social (sustainable) re...Victor Van Rij
Keynote speech for the International Conference for the Management of Educational Quality within the University Social Responsibility. 21st of September 2016, Merida, Mexico
Plea is made to use the principles of coorporate governance to lead the transformation process of Universities towards Social Responsibility that takes into account general ethical values , as well as the duty to work with and for society towards sustainability.
Who needs a teacher in the 21st century Higher Education?Victor Van Rij
Presentation to the 2014 , UNESCO, IITE conference held from 14-15 October in Moscow, New challenges for Pedagogy and Quality of Education, MOOCs, Clouds and Mobiles
21st Century Higher Education foresight 25 march 2015 [Autosaved]Victor Van Rij
The document provides an analysis of perspectives from future studies on the relationship between information and communication technologies (ICT) and higher education. It discusses several main trends, including:
1) Societal trends like increased mobility and younger generations learning differently will impact higher education.
2) Technological trends like ubiquitous internet access, massive open online courses, and augmented reality will provide new opportunities for learning.
3) Economic trends like rising youth unemployment and need for ICT skills will shape higher education systems and business models.
4) Environmental trends like addressing global challenges will require innovative thinking from higher education.
5) Policy trends around issues like privatization, enrollment goals, and digital literacy standards will influence higher education
Scale the API Economy With The Open API Definition Leap Of Faith Mehdi Medjaoui
The document discusses the Open API Definition and the need for a "leap of faith" to scale the API economy. It notes that an API represents a contract between a provider and consumer. The document lists several principles that are important to scale the API landscape, including providing new resources, transparency, accessibility, interoperability, and reliability. It encourages readers to discuss and contribute to the Open API manifesto to help transform users into practitioners and scale the API economy.
This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute at the 7X7 Ideas Exchange: 7 Imaginations. 26 August 2008
The document discusses emerging issues and wild cards as potential future shapers and how they can influence political discourse and decision making. It defines emerging issues as logically connected topics or trends that create a coherent story, and wild cards as low probability but high impact events. It examines how emerging issues and wild cards have strength as "shakers" when they have already occurred and influence discourse, and strength as "shapers" when they could potentially occur in the future. The document recommends distinguishing between naturally and human-caused emerging issues and wild cards since they require different methodological approaches, and calls for more research on how narratives influence decision makers.
This document discusses various concepts and techniques related to forecasting technological change, including:
1) Technological change occurs through a combination of trends, discontinuities, and human choices, making the future difficult to predict with certainty.
2) Effective forecasting examines alternative futures through scenarios and considers uncertainties, rather than making single predictions.
3) Emerging technologies like biotechnology, nanotechnology, neuroscience, and new energy sources may significantly impact and transform society in coming decades and centuries.
Climatic Change and Population ControlIIJSRJournal
The main reasons for climate change which are explained in this article are as follows: -Climate pollution by gases with CO2 emission and Greenhouse Effect; Climate contamination of viruses with viruses from nature by animals or glaciers when thawing or produced in Laboratories; Induced Climate Change due to meteorological weapons with high intensity radio waves to produce rains, hurricanes and possible induction of earthquakes; Climate pollution by radiation due wars with irreversible consequences in the climate and Nuclear Winter; Climate Change due the explosion of missiles and atomic weapons in the oceans; Climate Change due the natural cyclical phases of the Earth affected by the cyclical variations of the Earth's magnetic field lines which can be affected by the severe cyclical activity of the sun due storms and sunspot because of the combustion that occurs inside the Sun which is due to the gravitational instabilities produced by the planets of the solar system, asteroids or the Comet Planet; Climate Change due to the invading Comet Planet into the solar system that affects with its gravitational field to the sun with solar storms and the planets with variation of the magnetic field lines affecting the climate, earthquakes and activation of volcanoes and indeed with the entry of many meteors and asteroids to the Earth; Climate change due to the Arm of God Allah explaining all the above reasons being more evident in times of Tribulation.
This document discusses handling uncertain futures and complex challenges in health and society. It addresses several areas of uncertainty like health issues, climate change, economic disparities, and technological dependency. Some key points discussed are the increasing rates of dementia due to population aging, the global rise of obesity, and the growing impact of social media and wireless technology. The document argues for an ecological approach to health that considers various social determinants. It also advocates for participatory governance, knowledge mobilization between different groups, and interdisciplinary and translational work to address complex problems with uncertain outcomes.
The document discusses chaos theory and the concept of small, isolated events triggering larger consequences through complex, interconnected systems. It proposes using education to foster awareness of global interdependence and empowering technocratic leaders of international organizations and key government positions to facilitate rapid, expertise-driven responses to political and social crises as they emerge. This global technocracy model aims to establish a collective security system not driven by individual political interests. The plan faces challenges but taking incremental steps could help modernize governance structures to better prepare for uncertain future disasters.
Predicting mid-range global futures (2005-2050)Danila Medvedev
The document discusses various approaches to thinking about and predicting the future, including time periods to consider, common visions of the future, challenges, and who engages in future thinking. It notes limitations of science fiction, futurology, individual futurists, and short-term corporate predictions, and advocates for a systematic, technology-focused approach incorporating exponential trends to more accurately envision the mid-range future from 2005 to 2050.
Crazy Futures aka Rx for Leadership Scotomas (why plausibility is maladaptive)Wendy Schultz
Short slidedeck on overcoming mental boundaries and expanding conceptual horizons in considering what possible futures may emerge, as a means to avoiding decision blindspots and black elephants / black swans.
Slides for the "tech talk" given by David Brin and Sheldon Brown at Google late 2006.
http://tinyurl.com/yy7yxm Where does the Net fit into 500 years of expanding tools for vision, memory and perspective? What missing pieces are people not noticing that might vastly improve problem-solving?
Steven Greer - CE5-CSETI - 19. Collection of Dr. Greer's Papers about Disclos...Exopolitics Hungary
This document contains position papers by Dr. Steven Greer on disclosure and secrecy regarding extraterrestrial intelligence. It discusses the implications of UFO/ETI disinformation for national and international security policy makers. Some key points made include:
- Sophisticated disinformation techniques like inducing false experiences could influence policy decisions in a harmful way.
- Most reported abductions and cattle mutilations are likely the result of disinformation campaigns rather than actual ET activity.
- Technologies exist that could simulate false extraterrestrial threats to influence policy or unite humanity against a "common alien threat."
- The biggest threats to national security are not from any hostile ETs, but from the current covert management of the UFO
A presentation and forecasting session given by Elizabeth Merritt, founding director of the Center for the Future of Museums, and Peter Bishop, associate professor of strategic foresight at the University of Houston, at the 2010 Texas Association of Museums conference.
We should teach as much about the future as we do about the past! This presentation makes that case and provides some mathematical concepts that help students forecast future values.
The document discusses new year's resolutions and why people form them. It also examines why resolutions are often not maintained. It then explores concepts related to envisioning the future, including definitions of future as both an adjective and noun. It discusses futuring as identifying and evaluating possible future events. Finally, it provides an excerpt on fragmented thinking and the importance of seeing connections and systems.
Steven Greer - CE5-CSETI - 16. The CSETI Project - Project Overview, 59pExopolitics Hungary
The document discusses the conclusions of CSETI's analysis of the UFO phenomenon and extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI). Some key points include:
- Some UFOs are extraterrestrial spacecraft piloted by beings from other planets and star systems. Multiple civilizations are involved.
- Sudden open contact has been avoided to prevent disruption, but a plan is in place for gradual, broader contact as humans become accustomed to the idea.
- ETI are concerned with humanity's transition to peace and a world government within the next 10-15 years.
- The US government has known about ETI since 1946 but maintained secrecy due to fears over technology, social disruption, and uncertainty about motives
The document summarizes the objectives and activities of the SESTI project, which is funded by the European Commission to research methods for identifying emerging science and technology issues. The project aims to assess scanning tools and methods for early warnings and explore ways to connect scanning results to the policymaking community. SESTI focuses on healthcare, energy, and other sectors, examining organizational changes, science/technology developments, and public perceptions. It defines "wild cards" as surprising events that could significantly impact the future and discusses identifying and analyzing potential wild cards through published narratives and discussion of them.
This is A Dutch presentation arguing that the concept of "life expectancy" is rather covering up the fact that mortality chance is sharp increasing after certain ages and moreover very dependent on education level and sex. If wanted I can translate the presentation to English
Responsibility of universities. Future of university social (sustainable) re...Victor Van Rij
Keynote speech for the International Conference for the Management of Educational Quality within the University Social Responsibility. 21st of September 2016, Merida, Mexico
Plea is made to use the principles of coorporate governance to lead the transformation process of Universities towards Social Responsibility that takes into account general ethical values , as well as the duty to work with and for society towards sustainability.
Who needs a teacher in the 21st century Higher Education?Victor Van Rij
Presentation to the 2014 , UNESCO, IITE conference held from 14-15 October in Moscow, New challenges for Pedagogy and Quality of Education, MOOCs, Clouds and Mobiles
21st Century Higher Education foresight 25 march 2015 [Autosaved]Victor Van Rij
The document provides an analysis of perspectives from future studies on the relationship between information and communication technologies (ICT) and higher education. It discusses several main trends, including:
1) Societal trends like increased mobility and younger generations learning differently will impact higher education.
2) Technological trends like ubiquitous internet access, massive open online courses, and augmented reality will provide new opportunities for learning.
3) Economic trends like rising youth unemployment and need for ICT skills will shape higher education systems and business models.
4) Environmental trends like addressing global challenges will require innovative thinking from higher education.
5) Policy trends around issues like privatization, enrollment goals, and digital literacy standards will influence higher education
Scale the API Economy With The Open API Definition Leap Of Faith Mehdi Medjaoui
The document discusses the Open API Definition and the need for a "leap of faith" to scale the API economy. It notes that an API represents a contract between a provider and consumer. The document lists several principles that are important to scale the API landscape, including providing new resources, transparency, accessibility, interoperability, and reliability. It encourages readers to discuss and contribute to the Open API manifesto to help transform users into practitioners and scale the API economy.
This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute at the 7X7 Ideas Exchange: 7 Imaginations. 26 August 2008
The document discusses emerging issues and wild cards as potential future shapers and how they can influence political discourse and decision making. It defines emerging issues as logically connected topics or trends that create a coherent story, and wild cards as low probability but high impact events. It examines how emerging issues and wild cards have strength as "shakers" when they have already occurred and influence discourse, and strength as "shapers" when they could potentially occur in the future. The document recommends distinguishing between naturally and human-caused emerging issues and wild cards since they require different methodological approaches, and calls for more research on how narratives influence decision makers.
This document discusses various concepts and techniques related to forecasting technological change, including:
1) Technological change occurs through a combination of trends, discontinuities, and human choices, making the future difficult to predict with certainty.
2) Effective forecasting examines alternative futures through scenarios and considers uncertainties, rather than making single predictions.
3) Emerging technologies like biotechnology, nanotechnology, neuroscience, and new energy sources may significantly impact and transform society in coming decades and centuries.
Climatic Change and Population ControlIIJSRJournal
The main reasons for climate change which are explained in this article are as follows: -Climate pollution by gases with CO2 emission and Greenhouse Effect; Climate contamination of viruses with viruses from nature by animals or glaciers when thawing or produced in Laboratories; Induced Climate Change due to meteorological weapons with high intensity radio waves to produce rains, hurricanes and possible induction of earthquakes; Climate pollution by radiation due wars with irreversible consequences in the climate and Nuclear Winter; Climate Change due the explosion of missiles and atomic weapons in the oceans; Climate Change due the natural cyclical phases of the Earth affected by the cyclical variations of the Earth's magnetic field lines which can be affected by the severe cyclical activity of the sun due storms and sunspot because of the combustion that occurs inside the Sun which is due to the gravitational instabilities produced by the planets of the solar system, asteroids or the Comet Planet; Climate Change due to the invading Comet Planet into the solar system that affects with its gravitational field to the sun with solar storms and the planets with variation of the magnetic field lines affecting the climate, earthquakes and activation of volcanoes and indeed with the entry of many meteors and asteroids to the Earth; Climate change due to the Arm of God Allah explaining all the above reasons being more evident in times of Tribulation.
This document discusses handling uncertain futures and complex challenges in health and society. It addresses several areas of uncertainty like health issues, climate change, economic disparities, and technological dependency. Some key points discussed are the increasing rates of dementia due to population aging, the global rise of obesity, and the growing impact of social media and wireless technology. The document argues for an ecological approach to health that considers various social determinants. It also advocates for participatory governance, knowledge mobilization between different groups, and interdisciplinary and translational work to address complex problems with uncertain outcomes.
The document discusses chaos theory and the concept of small, isolated events triggering larger consequences through complex, interconnected systems. It proposes using education to foster awareness of global interdependence and empowering technocratic leaders of international organizations and key government positions to facilitate rapid, expertise-driven responses to political and social crises as they emerge. This global technocracy model aims to establish a collective security system not driven by individual political interests. The plan faces challenges but taking incremental steps could help modernize governance structures to better prepare for uncertain future disasters.
Predicting mid-range global futures (2005-2050)Danila Medvedev
The document discusses various approaches to thinking about and predicting the future, including time periods to consider, common visions of the future, challenges, and who engages in future thinking. It notes limitations of science fiction, futurology, individual futurists, and short-term corporate predictions, and advocates for a systematic, technology-focused approach incorporating exponential trends to more accurately envision the mid-range future from 2005 to 2050.
Crazy Futures aka Rx for Leadership Scotomas (why plausibility is maladaptive)Wendy Schultz
Short slidedeck on overcoming mental boundaries and expanding conceptual horizons in considering what possible futures may emerge, as a means to avoiding decision blindspots and black elephants / black swans.
Slides for the "tech talk" given by David Brin and Sheldon Brown at Google late 2006.
http://tinyurl.com/yy7yxm Where does the Net fit into 500 years of expanding tools for vision, memory and perspective? What missing pieces are people not noticing that might vastly improve problem-solving?
Steven Greer - CE5-CSETI - 19. Collection of Dr. Greer's Papers about Disclos...Exopolitics Hungary
This document contains position papers by Dr. Steven Greer on disclosure and secrecy regarding extraterrestrial intelligence. It discusses the implications of UFO/ETI disinformation for national and international security policy makers. Some key points made include:
- Sophisticated disinformation techniques like inducing false experiences could influence policy decisions in a harmful way.
- Most reported abductions and cattle mutilations are likely the result of disinformation campaigns rather than actual ET activity.
- Technologies exist that could simulate false extraterrestrial threats to influence policy or unite humanity against a "common alien threat."
- The biggest threats to national security are not from any hostile ETs, but from the current covert management of the UFO
A presentation and forecasting session given by Elizabeth Merritt, founding director of the Center for the Future of Museums, and Peter Bishop, associate professor of strategic foresight at the University of Houston, at the 2010 Texas Association of Museums conference.
We should teach as much about the future as we do about the past! This presentation makes that case and provides some mathematical concepts that help students forecast future values.
The document discusses new year's resolutions and why people form them. It also examines why resolutions are often not maintained. It then explores concepts related to envisioning the future, including definitions of future as both an adjective and noun. It discusses futuring as identifying and evaluating possible future events. Finally, it provides an excerpt on fragmented thinking and the importance of seeing connections and systems.
Steven Greer - CE5-CSETI - 16. The CSETI Project - Project Overview, 59pExopolitics Hungary
The document discusses the conclusions of CSETI's analysis of the UFO phenomenon and extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI). Some key points include:
- Some UFOs are extraterrestrial spacecraft piloted by beings from other planets and star systems. Multiple civilizations are involved.
- Sudden open contact has been avoided to prevent disruption, but a plan is in place for gradual, broader contact as humans become accustomed to the idea.
- ETI are concerned with humanity's transition to peace and a world government within the next 10-15 years.
- The US government has known about ETI since 1946 but maintained secrecy due to fears over technology, social disruption, and uncertainty about motives
This document discusses how information technology can help address sustainability challenges posed by the Anthropocene era and planetary boundaries. It describes how supernetworks, small world networks, and collective intelligence enabled by new communication technologies are building resilience through phenomena like early warning systems for disease outbreaks. However, these benefits are not guaranteed - positive outcomes require active work to develop the web for collaborative problem solving rather than just spreading junk. Collaboration between scientific and technological communities could help transform information flows into a global force for resilience.
(DOC) Effects of Globalization essay | Estelle Gras - Academia.edu. An important role of globalization - Free Essay Example | PapersOwl.com. Globalisation Essay | Economics - Year 12 HSC | Thinkswap. How Does Globalization Affect Us Essay - QLABOL. Globalisation Essay. handwritten notes of Globalisation-[political science] class 12th ....
Coping with Global Evolutionary Crisis in 21st century through Social Innovat...Pavel Luksha
1. The document discusses the need for social innovation and education reform to cope with the global crises of the 21st century caused by increasing technological complexity and societal changes.
2. It argues that humanity must guide its own evolution through developing collective consciousness and wisdom-based societies, as technological solutions alone will not be sufficient to manage complexity.
3. Key skills needed for the future include collaboration, creativity, lifelong learning, and developing a growth mindset. Education must shift to a learner-centered model and be available throughout life.
Andy Stirling: From Knowledge Economy to Innovation Democracy: collective act...STEPS Centre
ESRC STEPS Centre's Co-Director Professor Andy Stirling gave a keynote speech to European technology analysts at the European Commission's 'FTA 2014: future oriented technology analysis' conference in Brussels in November 2014.
Prof. Stirling's address is titled 'From Knowledge Economy to Innovation Democracy: collective action in the shaping of scientific and technological futures'
You can watch a video of this address and a short interview with Prof. Stirling at: http://steps-centre.org/2015/blog/stirlinginnovdemo
Effect of the singularity on social institutions indelmount
This document discusses the impact of technological progress and the Singularity on social institutions. It argues that technology has advanced exponentially throughout history, with accelerating growth rates. The Singularity refers to a future period where technological change will be so rapid it transforms human life. Advances in artificial intelligence and nanotechnology are expected to drive future innovations. This could fundamentally change institutions like healthcare, with nanotechnology enabling disease prevention and indefinite longevity. However, others argue Kurzweil's vision exceeds biological limits and that powerful virtual environments may be preferred to biological enhancements. The effects on spirituality are also uncertain given open questions around machine consciousness.
The Future of Humanity Nick Bostrom Future of Humanit.docxbarbaran11
The Future of Humanity
Nick Bostrom
Future of Humanity Institute
Faculty of Philosophy & James Martin 21st Century School
Oxford University
www.nickbostrom.com
[Complete draft circulated (2007)]
[Published in New Waves in Philosophy of Technology, eds. Jan-Kyrre Berg Olsen, Evan
Selinger, & Soren Riis (New York: Palgrave McMillan, 2009)]
[Reprinted in the journal Geopolitics, History, and International Relations, forthcoming]
Abstract
The future of humanity is often viewed as a topic for idle speculation. Yet our beliefs and
assumptions on this subject matter shape decisions in both our personal lives and public
policy – decisions that have very real and sometimes unfortunate consequences. It is
therefore practically important to try to develop a realistic mode of futuristic thought about
big picture questions for humanity. This paper sketches an overview of some recent attempts
in this direction, and it offers a brief discussion of four families of scenarios for humanity’s
future: extinction, recurrent collapse, plateau, and posthumanity.
The future of humanity as an inescapable topic
In one sense, the future of humanity comprises everything that will ever happen to any
human being, including what you will have for breakfast next Thursday and all the scientific
discoveries that will be made next year. In that sense, it is hardly reasonable to think of the
future of humanity as a topic: it is too big and too diverse to be addressed as a whole in a
single essay, monograph, or even 100-volume book series. It is made into a topic by way of
abstraction. We abstract from details and short-term fluctuations and developments that
affect only some limited aspect of our lives. A discussion about the future of humanity is
about how the important fundamental features of the human condition may change or remain
constant in the long run.
What features of the human condition are fundamental and important? On this there
can be reasonable disagreement. Nonetheless, some features qualify by almost any standard.
For example, whether and when Earth-originating life will go extinct, whether it will
colonize the galaxy, whether human biology will be fundamentally transformed to make us
posthuman, whether machine intelligence will surpass biological intelligence, whether
1
http://www.nickbostrom.com/
population size will explode, and whether quality of life will radically improve or deteriorate:
these are all important fundamental questions about the future of humanity. Less
fundamental questions – for instance, about methodologies or specific technology projections
– are also relevant insofar as they inform our views about more fundamental parameters.
Traditionally, the future of humanity has been a topic for theology. All the major
religions have teachings about the ultimate destiny of humanity or the end of the world.1
Eschatological themes have also been explored by big-name philosopher.
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland
Similar to Victor Van Rij Ircg Wildcards24 10presentation Abu D Abi[1] (20)
Stories for survival and succes in nature and in businessVictor Van Rij
The document discusses Darwin's theory of natural selection and survival of the fittest in nature and how it can be applied to business. It argues that in a changing environment, the most fit companies are those that:
1) Have foreseeing capacity to understand trends and future impacts.
2) Have flexible structures and reserve resources to make required changes.
3) Can shape their own future environment through new technologies and persuasive future narratives.
The key to survival and success is foreseeing capacity, flexibility and resilience to change, and ability to shape one's own future. Monitoring imaginary future scenarios or "wild cards" can help businesses prepare for potential impacts. Creating positive wild card narratives can also influence stakeholders.
Sesti workshop-cognitive enhancement futuresVictor Van Rij
This document summarizes a workshop on cognitive enhancement that discussed: the hopes and fears around future human evolution with cognitive enhancement; levels of enhancement from temporary aids to enhancing basic abilities; main motives for cognitive enhancement including individual and societal benefits; and main pathways for enhancement including social/psychological, biological, and tools. It analyzed weak signals around the progress of developments in pathways, identifying emerging ethical issues especially around neuro-reading, implants, enhancement drugs, genetic screening and IVF, and commercial interests.
Futureofworkthreatsandopportunitiesbzkinformal (2)Victor Van Rij
This document discusses the promises and threats of the future of work in light of increasing digitalization. The promises include the abundance of information and easy collaboration across borders enabled by digital technologies. However, the threats include information overload, loss of work-life balance due to the 24/7 work cycle, loss of control over work, and the inability of "digital poor" people to cope with rapid changes. Some public sector concerns are overload and stress, how to balance autonomy with accountability for public servants, and how to ensure transparency without compromising privacy. The presentation explores how to apply the "Mode 2" model of autonomous network formation to public administration while maintaining accountability.
OECD, victor van rij, sept 2008 national horizonsVictor Van Rij
This document discusses horizon scanning and foresight activities in the Netherlands to influence research and development priorities. It provides an overview of the Dutch government's spending on research and development, which totals 3-4 billion euros annually. It also outlines the Netherlands' use of foresight studies to identify emerging topics and align actors around themes to inform priority setting and new R&D programming. More recently, the Netherlands has adopted horizon scanning as a wider scoping foresight approach to better identify complex interactions and new issues across disciplines. The document concludes by explaining horizon scanning methodology used in the Netherlands.
Victorvan Rij Sesti workshopmethodsintro2010Victor Van Rij
The document discusses a project funded by the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities program. It describes the different work packages in the project including emerging issues detection, priority setting and clustering, analysis of early warning signals, and deeper analysis of potential emerging issues. It poses questions about relating scanning activities to policies, priority setting procedures, the role of early warning signals, methods for further analysis, and the potential role of automation and text mining in horizon scanning procedures.
The document discusses emerging issues in energy research and policy that were presented at a workshop. It summarizes four issues:
1) Hybrid nuclear energy, which could prolong existing nuclear reactors and potentially provide 30-60% of US electricity by 2100, but has feasibility, safety, and public acceptance challenges.
2) Renewable energy from deserts, which could supply 15% of Europe's electricity by 2050 through solar parks in deserts and transmission lines, but has material constraints and dependency issues.
3) Increasing photosynthesis efficiency through artificial means or improving agricultural techniques to potentially provide sustainable energy with little resource needs. However, land use and indirect electricity challenges remain.
4) The unknown risks of hydrogen as an
9. Opportunities/solutions : Threats/problems from: And Ecology, Ecosystem Biodiversity Human: Survival , Health Welfare, wealth Wellbeing Democracy, law Self-realization Culture, ethics Physical environment Natural resources from (Outer) Space, Sun Space Sea and waters Earth and soil Atmosphere Climate Living world Physical environment Shortage/destruction/ (Outer) Space Space Sea and waters Earth and soil Atmosphere climate Living world Human action/brainpower Science & Technology Education Social system Political, Government, legal, economy, finance Other Systems (infrastructures, production, transport, ICT, energy, industry, healthcare, agriculture) Human action/environment Science, technology Education Social system Political, Government, legal Economy, finance Systems (infrastructures, production, transport, ICT, energy, industry, health care, agriculture ) COMMON LONG TERM DESIRES & VALUES With expected large impact on society:
10. Issues with Potential high Impact on what we consider to be important certainty desirability changeability Climate Change Nuclear War NBIC convergence The Internet Migration Ageing society
16. Financial crisis Many sub prime loans gave 3 starting years with no interest Tension building The financial crisis Subprime loans
17. Tension building The financial crisis Student loans Total Student debt in US Total Articles with worries for a crisis connected to student debt (google news timeline)
18.
19.
20.
21. Realized ones can successfully influence the (future) course of history
24. as marketing cards Nano saves our lives Bioinspired nanotechnology creates nano - vehicles for targeted drugs application and diagnosis. We will be able to cure cancer? TECHNOLOGY and SCIENCE
25.
26. Gulf of Mexico incident News Google timeline Start of raising uncontrollable risk deep sea drill
What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable. I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans explain almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives. [4]
Also the ones which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. The we depends on who will be involved in the scan, so the selection of participants and consultation is crucial. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, weak signals, as well as persistent problems or trends .
1. Impact:Values should be explicited before and during preselection of dat (during literature survey) , feed back should be sought with representative sounding boards . 2 For probability and plausibility judgement multiple angles experts, 3. also for desirability it is important to explicit the weighting of sometimes countervauiling values. 4.The rate of changeability seems a scientific matter (like the reliable unchangeable rotation of the earth etc) but also here especially when social processes are involved experts may have very different views (for instance to what extent can we change consumer behaviour etc) 5. If we repeat the scan after 2 or 3 yeras we will see that the issue probably moved through the other dimensions , it may have become mor or lesss desirable, more or less certain , and we may have a different view on its impact, by assessing the shift in these dimensions we can assess whether or not issues have moved to more “ certain desirable impact “ Scanning usually starts with literaturearture search (scan of scans and futures) the persons who are doing the scans should be aware of the fact that selection of issues is a value based process, for this reason it is important to explicit the values before and during teh selaction process again the””we”” raises the question who is involved and should be involved (depending on on the mission of the organsiation or level of government for whom the scan is executed
This picture shows what the map we used in the Netherlands. In the centre we have the earth and humans within a country or within Europe and the government that is responsible for the civilians and environment entrusted to them, in the center you find the mission and desired values (like the biological, the economical and so on) and to the left you find different categories where we search for opportunities (direct from the physical environment, like natural resources coming form earth, sea and waters, atmosphere, living world etc and above fruits of human interaction exploiting these resources and organizing our societies like S&T, education, economy and finance, government and law and so on) on the right sight we see the mirror down in red the dangers of the physical environment along the same categories but here we will place the dangers and treats (like pathogenic organisms from the living world destroying our cattle or crops or making us ill, climate change (also if this has not been cause by man) that endangers our agriculture , the earth producing land slides earth quakes etc), from water (draught, poison, flood) etc and above the dangers of human activities again in the same categories it seems obvious that every action we undertake alters things and therefore also contains threats and opportunities.
Here we viliualise how issues could be placed in a value matrix, the only missing dimension is time , it would be fun to have a movie showing all the issues moving in this matrix, human action should try to push most issues to the upper corner in the left, back of the matrix (desirable, certain , and stable (unchangeable), or if the desire contains changeability (to have more flexibilty) the issue should move just to the upper back of the martrix. WE should take into account that almost all issues are moer or less connected and tha these connection (mutual ) inlfluences also will vary in time , this is where scenario’s and road maps are build for
What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable. I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans explain almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives. [4]
Blaming and shaming game foreseeable: yes , large hurricanes are a regular phenomena in this area – could we have done anything : yes: better water flooding protection (as in the Netherlands ) no constructions on unsafe areas foreseeable: Yes : Al Quaida already hit large US targets in Africa ; airplane suicide scenario was known. Could we have done anything: better intelligence on “real” dangerous groups, better safety measures in airplanes rather than useless ones on airports (leaves other targets as trains , tunnels and metro’s unprotected) – foreseeable yes, as well as the next ones , sub prime building up and selling through of loans though the financial system was observed as very risky; could we have done anything: yes, direct support of sub prime loaners by US government at the start could have prevented the cascade that followed , further building shields between risky loan activities and regular banking could have been installed on forehand to contain risk - foreseeable: yes , volcanic activity is regular on Iceland, outbursts with fumes that could harm Europe were known from history (like 1783), the effect on airplanes was known from near accidents elsewhere in the world it could have been worse, ; could we have done anything: yes, having a fume monitoring system in place, and alternative means of travel ready (busses, extra trains) ; if the fume clouds persist we also should think on maintaining additional food storages and measure for people with lung diseases – foreseeable: yes, oil drilling always had the risk of accidents (many accidents on land which were difficult to fix), that the risks are much higher with deep sea drilling and that the ecological risk are much higher is in fact logic; could we have done anything: yes, we could abandon the idea to search for oil on places where exploitation is too risky (especially if we do not have clear cut scenario’s on how to close a deap sea leak) and focus more on the safe alternatives
Like piling up of non degradable toxic substances (DDT), or components we do not know the effect of (high –low frequency emissions) Sub prime loans – unpayable debts/financial crisis Growing amount of frustrated people leading to terrorist power /or of their political support by frustrated nations/ 9-11 Asteroid impact, Sun cycle without solar flares ? Sun heats up in an incredible way nobody understands, the earth awakens (series of earth quakes etc.), aliens landing on earth Black swans
Earth, land (volcano’s, landslides, gas eruption, mud volcano’s,earth quakes) Air (climate change, dust, tornado, storms) Water (draught, floods , pollution natural causes) Biosphere (epidemics, plagues, zoo-noses, mass-starvation, infertility etc) Outer space (asteroids, extraterrestrial live, no or sudden solar activity) cards the potential interests and emotions of the communicator, the difference with the human caused wild cards is that the strength of the wild card always will be be supported by scientific evidence which can be contested in a scientific discourse Fear and wish for whom – what values are threatened)
Society (Value shifts, movements , hypes social trends, demography,social conflict) Technology and Science (breakthrough’s, new technologies etc) Economy (crisis, prosperous developments etc) Politics/Public services (everything that can go wrong and right, warfare) in scientific journals, science fiction, the internet and in other sources where people express future oriented views Fear and wish for whom – what values are threatened)
Fear and wish for whom – what values are threatened)
Fear and wish for whom – what values are threatened)
Fear and wish for whom – what values are threatened)
Policy makers aware of what can happen are better able to react (in security scenario-gaming is used to prepare decision makers in cases of emergency) A monitoring system for volcano ashes could already have been in place if we would have looked seriously to the geosphere wild cards For other natural wild cards we can think of several smart ways to mitigate nagtive impacts 4. For Human caused wild cards we can create countervailing policies (like preventing nuclear proliferation- who will be first to renounce its nuclear arms fully – France?? Britain?? Russia? The US?? China??etc
: Earth quakes in this particular region are regular ; can we do anything about it: re building earth quake proof, prepare evacuation scenario’s (taking into account disrupted infrastructures) (and other volcano’s in dense populated areas) : Vesuvius is irregular active and highly dangerous; can we do anything about it: evacuation measures (prepare additional escape infrastructures) and shrinking the town on longer term (people should not live in this area) : Debt growth of countries was known ; can/could we do anything about it: like in the sub prime crisis , direct support for the debt countries stops the initiation of cascade effects; anti speculation measures on EURO should be in place (monitoring money flows, who buys sells what) : world wide effort to renew the non proliferation policy – avoid nuclear energy