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Reconstructing Ancient and Modern Land Use Decisions in the Copan Valley, Honduras:
A GIS Landscape Archaeology Perspective
A thesis presented to
the faculty of
the Voinovich School of Leadership & Public Affairs
In partial fulfillment
of the requirements for the degree
Master of Science
Patricia J. White
December 2015
© 2015 Patricia J. White. All Rights Reserved.
2
This thesis titled
Reconstructing Ancient and Modern Land Use Decisions in the Copan Valley, Honduras:
A GIS Landscape Archaeology Perspective
by
PATRICIA J. WHITE
has been approved for
the Program of Environmental Studies
and the Voinovich School of Leadership and Public Affairs by
AnnCorinne Freter-Abrams
Professor Emerita of Anthropology
Mark Weinberg
Director, Voinovich School of Leadership & Public Affairs
3
ABSTRACT
WHITE, PATRICIA J., M.S., December 2015, Environmental Studies
Reconstructing Ancient and Modern Land Use Decisions in the Copan Valley, Honduras:
A GIS Landscape Archaeology Perspective
Director of Thesis: AnnCorinne Freter-Abrams
This thesis is an analysis of land use patterns in the Copan Valley, Honduras. It is
a comparative, GIS-based analysis of the archaeological/population site data of the
ancient Copan Maya population (A.D. 250-1300) and the 1978 modern Copan Valley
population. These two populations were compared to ascertain the resilience of the
Valley’s ecosystem over time. Time series data from the ancient Maya was combined
with mean center and standard distances tests on both populations and these were
overlain onto slope and aspect data to determine how both populations utilized similar
landscapes. Results demonstrate that the ancient Mayan utilization of the valley was non
resilient, and unsustainable, while the 1978 population was also non resilient, and only
currently sustainable due to outside markets.
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AKNOWLEDGMENTS
This thesis would not have been possible without the assistance of several people,
departments, and institutions.
First, a heavy debt is owed to all the Copan researchers who have investigated this
valley for over a 100 years. The data for this thesis was generously supported by the
Instituto Hondureño de Antropología e Historia and by three grants from the National
Science Foundation (Webster and Sanders, BNS-8219421; Webster, BNS-8419933; and
Webster and Freter BNS-219421).
Second, thanks to the Environmental Studies program for all of their help and
support;
Third, thanks to everyone on my committee. I appreciate the time they have taken
to help me complete this work and degree. Elliot Abrams assisted with edits while
Dorothy Sack generously took a “last minute” seat on my committee, and provided
supportive feedback.
AnnCorinne Freter was supportive after I took a long hiatus from this work and
encouraged me to finish. If she wasn’t as on board as I about its completion, I don’t think
it would’ve gotten finished. Gaurav Sinha assisted with several GIS questions and his
help was invaluable the thesis’ completion.
Last, on a personal level, thank you to my Grams (Doris)…for being helpful,
supportive, and patient during my graduate degree research. You really are the best.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Abstract……………………………………………………………………………………3
Acknowledgments………………………………………………………………………....4
List of Figures……………………………………………………………………………..6
Introduction………………………………………………………………………………..7
Copan Valley, Honduras: Background…………………………………………………..11
Physical Environment………………………………………………………………….11
Ancient Cultural History……………………………………………………………….14
Archaeological History………………………………………………………………...15
Methods…………………………………………………………………………………..20
Data…………………………………………………………………………………….20
GIS Techniques………………………………………………………………………...24
Mean Center………………………………………………………………………….24
Standard Distance……………………………………………………………………25
Slope…………………………………………………………………………………26
Aspect………………………………………………………..………………………27
Results………………………………………………………………………………….28
Contemporary Conditions………………………………………………………………..34
Modern Settlement Data……………………………………………………………….36
Discussion………………………………………………………………………………..41
Ancient Maya…………………………………………………………………………..41
Contemporary Chorti…………………………………………………………………..43
Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………….45
Bibliography……………………………………………………………………………..50
Appendix: Raw Data for Time Series...………………………………………………….53
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Area Map………………………………………………………………………12
Figure 2: Map of All Surveyed Sites…………………………………………………….21
Figure 3: Time Series…………………………………………………………………….23
Figure 4: Mean Center of Ancient Population…………………………………………...25
Figure 5: Standard Distance of Ancient Population……………………………………..28
Figure 6: Graph, Time Series Average Slope……………………………………………30
Figure 7: Graph, Average Slope by Site Type…………………………………………...31
Figure 8: All Surveyed Sites across Aspect……………………………………………...32
Figure 9: Graph, Average Aspect by Site Type………………………………………….33
Figure 10: Population Distribution, 1978………………………………………………..37
Figure 11: Mean Center & Standard Distance of 1978 Population……………………...38
Figure 12: 1978 Population across Aspect……………………………………………….39
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INTRODUCTION
To some scholars, humans are viewed as ecological parasites, degrading their
ecosystems from pristine states (Erickson, 2000). This thesis is an attempt to show the
impacts humans have had as they have adapted as a species. Although this viewpoint
provides an awareness of the impacts human have in ecosystems, it also perpetuates the
human perspective as being apart from their surroundings or even superior to them. It
creates a human-centric mindset from which humans make exploitative decisions where
they view their relationship with the natural environment within a supply and demand
framework. However, there are some that see this human-nature relationship as an
adaptive dynamic but even within this perspective, there is still a tendency to view this
dynamic as one where humans operate within a carrying capacity or a subjective balance
of supply and demand (Erickson, 2000). Carrying capacity is the key concept to the idea
of sustainability. It is the number of people that an environment can support without
changing its productivity level (Moran, 2000). Moran discusses how this capacity is
dependent upon the technologies present in the environment and a set time frame (2000).
Therefore, sustainability implies an environment that operates within static absolute
amounts and concrete points of equilibrium available for exploitation, instead of a
dynamic, adaptive environment that changes and evolves around a shifting equilibrium,
with humans as a part of the system (Walker and Salt, 2006). Erickson (2000) furthers
this view of an adaptive dynamic because he presents the issue with the perspective of the
environment as a system able to reset into a pristine state after a period of exploitation by
humans. Instead, he explains that at any moment in time an environment’s state is the
8
accumulated result of its evolution, including its relationship with humans. Although,
authors like Erickson who have recognized the human-nature dynamic but have urged for
a relationship where humans operate within a sustainable level of resources in the supply
and demand perspective, many are now positing to create an encompassing system
dynamic that operates within a level of resilience (Green, Garmestani, Hopton, &
Heberling, 2014).
Walker and Salt (p. xiii, 2006) define resilience as “the capacity of a system to
absorb disturbance and still retain its basic function and structure. The idea behind
resilience is the need to utilize all the functions, cycles, roles, and redundancies of a
system with the goal of optimal performance. Ecosystems actually operate. They do not
simply have a supply of resources but are an adaptive dynamic of relationships,
developed over time. (Walker & Salt, 2006). Walker and Salt (2006) define this process
of adaptive system as self-organizing. They explain that hierarchical patterns produced by
key processes within the system are perpetuated by those patterns (Walker & Salt, 2006).
Biological diversity leads to redundancies of roles in systems that operate to serve
the whole (Walker & Salt, 2006). If diversity diminishes, by deforestation for example,
then there is less of an overlap in roles and few to pick up the slack in the face of
disturbance. This results in a loss of resilience. Coral reefs are an example Walker and
Salt (2006) utilize to demonstrate an ecosystem that bounce back from disturbances all
the time, pointing out their resilience. However, as the human aspect has increased in the
system, they have lacked the ability to recover.
9
Humans play a role in a given ecosystem but are actually able to adapt their role
to help strengthen or weaken the system. In contemporary society, that role includes
social institutions that govern how the natural environment is exploited. Green et al
(2014), address resilience through a multi-scalar law model on handling the natural
environment (2014). They emphasize the importance of scale in determining what is
considered resilient. A lack of resilience in a system can be caused by different levels in
that system, so pinpointing the level(s) of issue are a huge part in investigation (Walker &
Salt, 2006). The two populations in this thesis are not only a good example of how a lack
of resilience can be caused from different levels in a system, and represent good case
studies for gaining a perspective of resilience through both an ancient and modern
population, which can be utilized for further studies.
The data in this thesis demonstrate that the ancient Maya in Copan, Honduras
exemplify a population that did not lead to a more resilient human-nature system, and
which was not operating within the absolutes of sustainability. The Copan Dynasty
demonstrated a rise and fall of a population. The modern Copan population is still
operating within its natural environment and although there are attempts at maintaining
an extended dynamic between humans and their environment, there is a question as to
whether that relationship results in a resilient system.
The goal of this thesis is to use GIS to analyze the settlement and chronological
data from both ancient and modern populations in Copan to observe how each population
utilized similar landscapes through the perspective of the human-ecological dynamic.
Similar landscapes are considered here instead of exactly the same environment because
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of the adoption of Erickson’s (2000) logic that an environment is never exactly the same
after it is utilized but is a product of everything shaping it at any given point in time.
However, the region in question is still the same ecological system in general after
ancient use. Therefore, the ancient and modern population’s environment are assumed to
be similar enough for a comparative study.
This is a GIS-based analysis of archaeological population data compiled by Freter
during the PAC II survey in Copan, Honduras (Webster, Freter, & Gonlin, 2000). The
ancient population data show population and land use over time by the Maya in the
region, demonstrating the rise and fall of a polity and its inhabitants. The modern
population is a snapshot of the 1978 population across the landscape in Copan, Honduras.
The distributions of the two populations in the Valley are analyzed by the variables of
slope, aspect, and generalized using mean center and standard distance spatial statistics.
The results of these analyses are then interpreted within their respective sociopolitical
contexts and environmental inferences are made about the level of resilience of each
system.
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COPAN VALLEY, HONDURAS: BACKGROUND
Physical Environment
The study area is defined as the 400 km2
of the Copan Valley watershed within
Honduras. Figure 1 gives an overview of the region. It is defined by five different
“pockets” (bolsas) of rich alluvium, surrounded by foothills, which rise to high
mountains. The alluvial pockets are preferred for agriculture over the soil of the
highlands. The soil becomes less arable and more vulnerable to erosion at higher
elevations. The largest alluvial pocket is the Copan pocket (1,200 ha), followed by Santa
Rita, El Jaral, Rio Amarillo West, and Rio Amarillo East. All of these fertile pockets are
crossed by stream systems (Webster et al., 2000). The various ecological zones are
segregated by slope. The bottom lands, like the Copan Pocket, are the active alluvium
best for cultivation. This pattern is not uniform across the region, however, which results
in a patchy pattern of gentle slopes that lead from the bottomlands to the higher
elevations to sharp rises to higher elevations with steeper inclines.
Rainfall and temperature are slightly affected by elevation but the higher
elevations are still able to sustain the staple crops (maize, beans) of the region for some
of the year (Webster et al., 2000). The valley has a defined wet and dry season. The wet
season falls between May and January. The soil is supportive of the cultivation of maize,
beans, tobacco, coffee, and cacao. During the dry season especially, the Copan River and
its Sesesmil tributary are important for irrigation today. Left untouched, the land is
capable of developing into a dense, mixed tropical forest. Mahogany, cedar, and ceiba
12
dominate the lowlands while pine and oak, dominate at higher elevations. The elevation
ranges from 600 meters above sea level in the Copan pocket to 1400 meters above sea
level in the mountains (Webster et al., 2000).
Figure 1. Map showing Copan, Honduras (modified by Culbert, 1973).
It is important to describe the fragility of tropical soils, their climatic
environment, and the micro-environmental and erosional effects of deforestation.
Generally, tropical soils are easily degraded and the most popular way to exploit them
13
amongst indigenous populations is slash and burn agriculture. Sections of forest are
burned to release the nutrients in the vegetation quickly which are then cultivated with
maize for a few growing seasons before being left to regenerate back into forest (fallow
periods). Wingard (1996) discussed how the soils in this particular area are highly acidic
and dependent upon the regrowth of vegetation and release of the nutrients through fire
rather than soil characteristics alone for productivity. Therefore, if an ecological
threshold is surpassed that is unable to maintain the nutrient levels in the soil, the area
will no longer be suitable for cultivation. Deforestation and continuous cultivation that
does not allow soils to regenerate long enough to accumulate nutrients can contribute to
this degrading scenario. Deforestation leaves the ground vulnerable to erosion, especially
at steeper slopes in higher elevations, and interrupts local moisture cycles because of the
diminished vegetation (Shaw, 2003).
The climate of the region with its definite wet and dry seasons also creates a
sensitive landscape vulnerable to critical thresholds for certain practices. Shaw (2003)
addresses how these conditions and climatic uncertainties increase with deforestation.
According to Shaw (2003), the surface albedo (% reflectivity of solar energy) is different
for a cleared versus a forested system. The greater albedo of the forested system than a
cleared one results in cooler temperatures for the forest. Additionally, the forest system is
capable of absorbing more humidity from soil than the cleared, agricultural system
because of its capacity to house larger air masses at similar temperatures. Further,
deforested systems have a decreased ability to retain moisture (Shaw, 2003). All of these
local changes result in warmer, drier microclimatic conditions vulnerable to drought,
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consequently adding to the declining soil conditions of a cleared system. If the area is not
exploited agriculturally in a manner and at a rate to merit ecological sustainability, the
system (not just the soil) will undergo a process of declining productivity. These are the
conditions any human group has to grapple with when occupying the Copan Valley.
Ancient Cultural History
According to a sediment core from 1989, ancient inhabitants were exploiting the
valley with slash and burn agriculture since 3600 B.C. (Webster et al., 2000). Evidence of
maize cultivation is demonstrated as early as 2,000 B.C. Farming, in the form of slash
and burn agriculture, and pottery evidence in the Copan Valley started at about 1400 B.C.
By A.D. 400, evidence of a new political structure and population growth in the valley
emerged (Webster et al., 2000).
An individual presumed to be from Teotihuacan, K’inich Yax K’uk Mo’, appears
in the monumental record of the Copan Valley circa A.D. 426. He is the first ruler of
what becomes the Copan Dynasty. His presence is archaeologically punctuated by Mayan
iconography on monumental architecture and in hieroglyphic inscriptions. A political
structure developed that through time produced a succession of 16 kings at Copan
(Webster et al, 2000). The population began to grow and was concentrated within an
urban core in the Copan Pocket around what later became the Main Center. The Main
Center is where rituals were celebrated and population was densest. According to
Webster et al (2000), there were also two urban barrios, designated archaeologically as
15
Las Sepulturas and El Bosque, that fanned out around the Main Center to create the urban
core of the site. These areas were populated by residences of semi-autonomous
communal units with their own domestic ritual centers, agricultural gardens, and pottery
manufacturing areas. According to Paine, Freter, and Webster (1996), the core reached a
density of about 12,000 people per km2
at its height in A.D. 800. Population in the total
valley peaked at about 28,000 around A.D. 750 and the political structure had an abrupt
political collapse starting at about A.D. 822, followed by a gradual population decline
and spatial diffusion that lasted until about A.D. 1250 (Paine et al., 1996). After A.D.
1400, agriculture was completely abandoned, allowing for forest regeneration until the
Spanish arrived in the 1500s (Webster et al., 2000).
Archaeological History
The Copan Valley has a rich archaeological past. The Main Center in the urban
core was the earliest known area to be mapped, cross-sectioned, and sketched in 1834 by
archaeologist Juan Galindo and again in 1839 by John Stevens and Frederick
Catherwood. Work was then expanded from 1881 to 1895 by Alfred Maudslay, supported
by the Peabody Museum. The Carnegie Project followed this from 1935 to 1946, during
which the Copan River was diverted away from the Main Group. The first real attempt at
capturing the remains outside of the Main Group was a map made by Robert Burgh
created in 1935-1946 and published in 1952 (Longyear, 1952). This focus on the outlying
areas was expanded upon more intensely during The Harvard Project in 1977 by William
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Fash (1983), who remapped and surveyed Las Sepulturas. Specialized projects of
architectural mapping and photographing were undertaken by Hasso Hohmann and
Annegrete Vogrin in the 1970s. Finally, two highly intensive excavations, called PAC
(Proyecto Arqueologico Copan) I and PAC II, were initiated by the Honduran
government from 1977 to 1984 (Webster et al., 2000).
PAC I and PAC II produced a mass of data. Claude F. Baudez, through the French
Center for Scientific Research, led the PAC I. During this excavation project, sections of
the Main Group were restored and a ceramic sequence first proposed by John M.
Longyear, was expanded upon by Rene Viel (1983, 1993a, b). An attempt was also made
to represent the outlying areas by mapping and surveying the Copan Pocket, conducting a
survey of the broader Rio Copan drainage area, test pitting 1% of mounds in the Pocket,
excavating 15 more sites, and performing a random subsurface testing for sites. The last
of these proved valuable, as many sites are built on top of the remnants of older ones.
Finally, the PAC I, through a survey initiated by Baudez, provided ecological and land
use data of the region through ethnographic surveying (Leventhal, 1979).
In 1980, the PAC II phase was initiated through the Pennsylvania State University
directed by William T. Sander and David Webster. It was during this phase that Ann
Freter (1993) collected data employed for this thesis. Building on the initial work of
earlier excavations, PAC II undertook additional excavations throughout the Main Group
and Las Sepulturas, and extensive rural surface surveys of the settlements in the Rio
Copan and Rio Sesesmil drainages. This phase was an attempt to reconstruct the
17
sociopolitical context and the processes of ecological relationships and population
dynamics (Webster et al., 2000).
During PAC II, Freter conducted obsidian hydration dating on a stratified random
sample of the 400 km2
area and produced 2,264 dates. These dates have been
complemented by radiocarbon and ceramic dating in the region (Webster et al., 2005).
Copan Valley sites are classified into four general types by the amount and type
of structures found and the building materials utilized. Type 1 sites are constructed from
earthen material and rough stone. They have two or more buildings situated around one
or more plazas. Type 2 sites have one or more plazas and 6 to 8 mounds and are built of
rubble and blocks. In Type 3 sites this design escalates to taller mounds and dressed cut
stone. Finally the most elaborate sites are Type 4, which have many intricately grouped
plazas and mounds, and the material is dressed stone built into vaulted ceiling with some
sculptures (Webster et al., 2000).
In addition to horizontal excavations, surveys, and dating, Wingard (1996) tested
a soil model on the topography. The model represented an attempt to reconstruct the
relationships between population dynamics, deforestation, and soil erosion. Wingard
utilized the Erosion/Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) model created by the USDA.
Six slope classes were defined soils to help identify which slope variables are influenced
by erosion and which decline from nutrient depletion. As far as modeling the agricultural
habits of the Ancient Maya, EPIC allowed for a ten-year interval where eight years were
fallow periods and two were actively cropped. The model was then modified to project
the effects of decreases in fallow periods (Wingard, 1996).
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The model divides the landscape into three general areas: alluvial pockets,
foothills, and steeper hillsides. The simulation begins at A.D. 1 with 1,000 inhabitants.
Up to A.D. 700, an annual population growth rate of about 0.30 percent is used. From
A.D. 700-850, it increases to approximately 0.80 percent annually. These data, when
paired with the obsidian hydration dates collected by Freter (1993), show a population
concentration in the Copan Pocket followed by a northward and eastward expansion
(Wingard, 1996) as it grew, peaking at about 28,000 inhabitants. Evidence suggests that
the urban core housed a population density of approximately 12,000 km2
(Webster et al.,
2000).
According to Wingard (1996), the bottom land alluvium and the foothills were
exploited first since they were the most densely populated, closer to water, and richer in
soil nutrients than the higher elevations. Therefore, the lands would have been degraded
by overuse in these regions rather than by erosion. As population increased, fallow
periods were decreased. Eventually, the soil was in constant production. This induced
people to move to higher elevations and to begin cultivating the hillsides. Hillsides, on
higher slopes, have poorer soils that are more erosion-prone, thus their production is
limited. Wingard (1996, p. 219) states the dynamics of this scenario, “the absolute
increase in population is greater each year as a result of a constant growth rate operating
on an increasing population. However, the absolute decline in productivity on land under
cultivation is also increasing each year as the area of land under cultivation, and hence
subject to degradation, is increasing.”
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After A.D. 850, the population growth rate declines in the region to about 0.30
percent annually and the Maya political system changes (Webster et al., 2000). Paine and
Freter (1996) show a high risk of hillside abandonment first due to poorer soils and their
erosive tendencies, followed by later abandonment of the richer alluvium bottomlands.
As previously described, this region is vulnerable to overuse if a keen, ecologically
mindful, exploitative method is not practiced on this sensitive tropical landscape. The
archaeological, chronological, and pedological evidence suggest that settlement dynamics
of the ancient Maya were the product of the ecological decisions of the population and
their resultant relationship with the environment as demonstrated in their movement onto
higher elevations with an increase in population. Generally, the ancient Maya endured a
colonization boom and bust as resources were exploited and exhausted.
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METHODS
The primary objective of the GIS analysis is to describe settlement patterns of the
ancient Maya in the Copan Valley from A.D. 250-A.D.1300 and compare them to the
1978 population. It is anticipated that this comparison can be coupled with relevant
literature to provide insight into the land use manifestations of each sociopolitical
structure. GIS is useful here because it demonstrates visually the statistical movement of
population across the landscape.
Point data are useful for looking at distribution patterns, and when a time series is
added it shows how these distributions shift over time. A common way to generalize this
statistically is by utilizing the geographical mean center and the standard distance and
overlaying them across landscape variables, such as slope and aspect.
Data
The data consist of 169 sites that represent a stratified random sample of the total
1,430 sites. The sample is stratified based on site type (NM, AG, SM, and T1-T4) and
geographic area, using an aerial photograph number for the outlying regions and grid
square numbers for the Copan Pocket. The archaeological data for this study are the site
location, chronology, and environmental setting observations collected by Freter,
analyzed with an ArcGIS geodatabase and contextual shapefiles. Point data represent all
of the ancient mapped sites throughout all time periods from colonization to the political
collapse across the 400 km2
area (Figure 2). Polygon data extrapolated from 1978 aerial
21
photographs give the contemporary population pattern. Freter has also included line data
of digitized topographic lines, trails, roads, and streams. Finally, there is polygon data on
the research universe (Freter, 1988). The initial geographic coordinate system and data
presented is in NAD 1927. Between the settlement survey, test pit excavations, and
obsidian hydration dating, this GIS database represents a rare opportunity to analyze in
greater depth the ancient Maya settlement trends through time. In order for the data to be
utilized for the purpose of the study some preparation and manipulation was required.
Figure 2. Distribution of all surveyed sites across archaeological areas.
22
Because the goal of the thesis is to determine settlement patterns over time, the
settlement point data need dates attached to them. Only those dated through Freter’s
(1988) obsidian hydration and radiocarbon efforts are available (n=169). The site dates
were input as a time series in an attribute table of the site data ranging from A.D 250-
A.D. 1300 (Figure 3). The appendix lists the raw data. These categories were separated
by 150 year intervals to capture the accuracy range of the obsidian hydration dates, +/-
150 years. Each of these six intervals was selected and exported as a new layer in
ArcMap. The first two intervals were merged into one as they showed only a slight
difference. There was also only a slight difference between A.D. 700-A.D. 850 and A.D.
850-A.D. 1000. These, however, were left distinct because the two time intervals fall on
the cusp of the population peak and collapse and peak population. Even a slight variation
might demonstrate a meaningful pattern connected to the contextual social conditions of
the time.
23
Figure 3. Spatial time series of dated sites.
In an effort to work with linear measurement during analysis, the geographic
coordinate system was converted to UTM from the original NAD 1927 geographic
coordinate system. The digitized topographic polylines were converted to raster format
and “no data” gaps were filled in using an algorithm through map algebra. This allows for
a view of migration patterns relating to elevation.
24
GIS Techniques
Mean Center
In an effort to obtain a statistical visualization of how the population during each
time interval was distributed across the landscape, the mean center and standard distance
were calculated for each time interval (Figures 4 & 5). The mean center represents the
average position of the sites across the landscape. This is the point at which all of the X
and Y points tend to gravitate and is equated with the mean in general statistics (Unwin,
1983). If a distribution of points is separated by time frames, then the mean center of
each time frame can be plotted spatially to demonstrate the temporal movement through
time (Smith, 1975). This results in a single spatial point focusing the trajectory of the
population across the landscape into an average. Its counterpart, the standard distance,
shows the variation about the mean center.
25
Figure 4. Distribution of population mean centers through time.
Standard Distance
Standard distance is the same as the standard deviation in general statistics and
can be calculated to show how the distribution of the points fall with respect to that mean
center (Unwin, 1983). Figure 5 shows this applied to the data. An example of this
technique is described in Smith (1975) and was done in a study on the manufacturing belt
26
in the United States through the time period of 1899 to 1963. These patterns were then
viewed in light of qualitative background data to create inferences about the patterns, the
same objective of this thesis. The standard distance calculates a set number of standard
deviations around that average. For this purpose, one standard deviation sufficed as two
encompassed the whole distribution. This calculation is demonstrated as a circle around
the area with the average in the center, representing 68% of the whole spatial distribution
of the time interval.
Slope
Slope is a measurement taken from an elevation raster based on a rise on the
landscape. It is calculated in degrees as a ratio, or percent rise but for this purpose,
degrees are used. The output is a value from 0-90 degrees. Ninety is a vertical line and
anything under, the respective angle from the horizontal. Slope was calculated on the
DEM using the slope tool. The values for each point on the ancient data layer were then
denoted using the “Extract Multi Values to Points” tool. The 1978 data are polygons
input by Freter from aerial photographs, representing houses. These needed to be
converted to points to get a single slope value. GIS does this conversion by utilizing the
central point in each polygon. These values were then submitted through the same
extraction process for the slope values. Aspect is another value this tool can be used on.
27
Aspect
Aspect is also measured in degrees but from 0-360. It represents a panoramic
categorization of slope angles across a landscape starting in the north, moving clockwise
across the DEM. Therefore, anything at 0 degrees or 360 degrees denotes north facing
slopes. Anything in between the two extremes represents the respective directions in
movement. From this aspect raster, the extract tool was utilized to obtain the aspect data
from both the ancient and modern sites.
28
Figure 5. Distribution of population standard distances through time.
Results
The time series settlement patterns show an overall trend to the north and east.
The population starts in the Copan Pocket in the first time interval A.D. 250-A.D. 550
and begins the movement from there. The population density is highest in the Pocket and
population peaks in the interval A.D. 700-850. The population also fans out across the
29
landscape in this interval and continues to increase just slightly thereafter in the A.D.850-
A.D.1000 interval. It finally starts retracting and dissipating by A.D. 1300 in the overall
study area. This movement reflects the trend in population change over time shown by
the mean center analysis.
The standard distance captures the variation in this population movement as the
population radius fans out and up with respect to the average presented in the mean
center analysis. Again, population is concentrated with little spatial dispersion in the
earlier years of the Copan Dynasty and centered in the Pocket. As the population grows,
it moves eastward and spatial dispersion moves upslope. The limited productivity of the
land on higher elevations may be expressed in this variation as each “patch” of utilized
land has to be under production less intensely than lowlands and more would have to be
used, resulting in a pattern where inhabitants spread out more to exploit that type of land.
Figure 6 demonstrates a change in mean slope of land with sites over time as
more land becomes cultivated. The pattern reflected here is a movement upslope after the
commencement of the Copan Dynasty and the steeper choice of slope remaining steady
until after the political collapse. The later years demonstrate a gradual decline in the slope
of occupied terrain before abandonment of the valley.
30
Figure 6. Time series slope averages.
Figure 7 shows the distribution of slope by site type on all of the surveyed ancient
sites. Less elaborate sites, shown in the first category are those found on steeper sloping
regions. Sites containing more elaborate structures, mounds, and ceremonial centers, are
found on gentler slopes. This signifies a social distribution where sites sustaining elite
members of society were situated on land better suited for exploitation or larger
constructions needed larger parcels of level land.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Average Slope Over Time
Average slope
in degrees
31
Figure 7. Average slope of all surveyed sites by site type.
Figure 8 shows the ancient population across aspect. Aspect, as previously
described, shows the compass direction that a slope faces, with 0° and 360° being north.
As Figure 8 shows, the ancient Maya preferred sites on southern slopes while Figure 9
shows the distribution of aspect by site type.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Slope of all Site Types
Average slope in
degrees
32
Figure 8. Distribution of all surveyed sites across aspect.
33
Figure 9. Average aspect of all surveyed sites by site type.
Based on these data, it appears that inhabitants of the overall study region
preferred southern exposures. These data for slope and aspect provide a better
understanding of ancient land use decisions.
The population movement onto steeper slopes through time might reflect the fact
that additional land is no longer available for cultivation on lower-lying regions. The land
is either exhausted or is under constant production and more land is needed to support the
population. Aspect brings up some interesting questions about why there is a clear
preference for eastern to southern facing slopes. Over time aspect does not seem to
change as much as slope does, so an inference for preference based on exploitation
pressures will not be made here. However, it is safe to infer that it may have something to
do with the sun’s angles on homes or crops during certain seasons to assure successful
harvests or as a labor tactic to stay out of the sun at the most productive points of the day.
A look at the modern data may add to this understanding.
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
Aspect of all Site Types
Average aspect in
degrees
34
CONTEMPORARY CONDITIONS
The Spanish Conquistadors arrived in the Copan Valley in the 1500s and began
the process of displacing the Chorti Maya (modern descendants of the ancient population)
and setting up governmental land ownership. In the 1800s, Honduras was delineated
politically, dividing the Chorti between Guatemala and Honduras. The system of land
ownership and allocation established by 1900, is one in which a few powerful landowners
own the majority of the land while rural peasants work the land as laborers (Chenier,
Sherwood, & Robertson, 1999).
Tucker (2008) discusses the current land tenure system in La Campa, Honduras,
which demonstrates how land is delegated throughout the country. The municipio (local
district) divides up the land for use among villagers. This division is necessary because it
is not common for families to privately own their land, and the formalized policy of
holding land is often carried out in an informal manner. For example, titles are not
generally exchanged institutionally but are hand written (Tucker, 2008). Requirements
for utilizing the land are dependent on the scenario. Families may use land to cultivate
personal milpas, which are subsistence cultivation lots generally consisting of maize,
beans, and squash. However, there may be an added caveat for a farmer to couple this
personal use with commercial use as a contribution to broader economic endeavors. In La
Campa, coffee became the major commercial crop for this purpose through the 1990s.
Copan, on the other hand, underwent a boom and bust with tobacco from the 1950s
through the 1990s. With the introduction of a commercial crop, the investment of the
35
national government and international investors brings development and prosperity to an
area and the influx of employment, infrastructure, and their respective technologies.
However, the area that sees this growth and development from external players is
also dependent on what this development creates socially, economically, and physically.
Tobacco was initially very successful but when outside contexts changed with
antismoking campaigns, the market changed. Therefore, those campesinos (farmers)
relying on the income ultimately suffered (Loker, 2005). The Chorti essentially suffered
at the expense of land allocation policies.
In the 1970s the government granted a few groups of Chorti some land to relieve
the stresses of the growing population, but the land was of higher slope. As we recall
from the Ancient Mayan example, this type of land has a low carrying capacity and is not
conducive to meeting the agricultural needs of an increasing population. Attempts were
made by the rural community in the 1980s to form unions to gain additional land and
credit but they were met with resistance and violence (Chenier et al., 1999). In the 1990s,
the Chorti attempted further to unionize by forming groups, such as the National Chorti
Indian Council of Honduras, to use as vehicles to gain more land from their government.
Again, they were met with resistance when Candido Amador, a Chorti leader, was
assassinated in 1997. A hunger strike that same year gained enough international
attention to grant the Chorti some more land but it was of poor quality once again
(Chenier et al., 1999). How and when the land is cultivated, and how intensely it is
cultivated, result from a mix of governmental decisions, commercial factors, and local
community and familial subsistence needs. How much forest is cleared to meet these
36
needs is another factor contributing to land use. In the case of La Campa, there had been
episodes of deforestation and reforestation through the 1990s. In the Copan valley, the
tobacco boom required an increase in deforestation because processing flue-cured
tobacco required the timber for fuel. When tobacco production in the area failed and the
British-American Tobacco Corporation (BAT) retreated, the land was turned over to
cattle grazing instead of regenerated into forest (Loker, 2005).This sociopolitical
atmosphere governs how the population is dispersed and land is utilized.
Modern Settlement Data
Contemporary conditions defined here are the settlement data for the 1978
population. As noted above, these data were available as polygons digitized from 1978
aerial photographs by Freter (Figure 10). The polygons are actually houses in patterns
that are similar to the communal structure of the ancient Maya. A trail and roads layer has
been added to the stream and polygon layers in GIS to reflect contemporary conditions.
Mean center and standard distance calculations were made on these data. This is not a
time a series but a simple snapshot in time of an extant population to compare to the
ancient population distributions.
The resulting map shows that the 1978 population is more dispersed than the
ancient population. However, this dispersal reflects the patterns in the outlying, “rural”
areas of the height of the Copan Dynasty (A.D. 700-A.D. 850) and the later years of
dispersal after the political collapse (A.D. 850-A.D. 1150). The densest areas are still
37
found in the low-lying regions of higher soil fertility while higher elevations demonstrate
decreased population density like the density found in higher elevations of the ancient
population.
Figure 10. Distribution of 1978 population.
The mean center and standard distance on the 1978 population (Figure 11)
generalize these modern distribution patterns. Since there is only one time frame to work
38
with for the modern data, these spatial tests were placed together in the same map. The
mean center for the population for 1978 is located in the center of the study area
indicating how more evenly dispersed and less skewed in any direction than the
population was in earlier times. The standard distance covers most of the area, showing
the large distribution of settlements in 1978.
Figure 11. Mean center and standard distance of 1978 population.
39
This distribution makes sense given the absence of a centralized political force.
With land held within the hands of a few landholders but worked by peasant farm
laborers. In this scenario the land has not (or yet) to be exhausted beyond its productivity
level. A comparison of average slope between the ancient and modern populations
provides the values of 8° and 11°, respectively. As is evident in this comparison, both the
modern and ancient populations accessed higher slopes to support higher populations.
Figures 12, shows the distribution of the modern population across aspect.
Figure 12. Distribution of all surveyed sites across aspect
40
Aspect shows a similar preference among the modern population as the ancient
Mayans for the south-facing slopes. A comparison of the ancient and modern averages
gives the values of 183° and 174°, respectively. This demonstrates that aspect preference
might be more of an ecological decision for cultivation that works in that physical
environment rather than a social decision that changes with inhabitants. Additionally,
aspect preference does not change with population increase over time for the ancient
Maya. Therefore, it is not affected by exploitation pressures. South-facing slopes may
add to the success of the harvest or the production of labor from sun angles or may have
to do with the geologic structure of the terrain.
41
DISCUSSION
Ancient Maya
There are sociopolitical data presented in the archaeological record that may
account for the observed population/migration trends in the Copan Valley. A new
political structure came into the area around A.D. 426, and this may be demonstrated in
the population nucleation within the pocket and subsequent population increase. Because
the beginning of the time series shows a highly dense center followed by an expansion
that was not present before A.D. 426, it is safe to assume that there existed a centripetal
force acting on these patterns. Therefore, it would follow that when this force ceased to
act, the patterns would shift into a centrifugal form demonstrated later in the time series.
This suggests that there was a political collapse and not a large-scale population collapse
as there are still inhabitants as the pattern shifts. The presence of post-polity inhabitants is
demonstrated through the use of ceramic, radiocarbon, and obsidian hydration dating
(Webster, Freter, & Storey, 2004).
Environmentally, the ancient population data might show how an ecosystem can
be exhausted by the decision making process of a sociopolitical structure. As population
increased in the fertile Copan Pocket, there was a need to move upwards in topography
and thus to steeper slopes to exploit the environment further to support the growing
population, but there were limited areas available that had the overlap of slope, aspect,
and nearness to water preferred by the Maya for their settlements. Studies abound of the
effects of land clearing on higher slopes and the subsequent erosion rates. Anselmetti,
42
Hodel, Ariztegui, Brenner, and Rosenmeier (2007) utilized settlement core data to
quantify soil erosion rates of the ancient Maya from their land use decisions to clear
forest for agriculture. Kammerbauer and Ardon (1999) conducted a similar study in La
Lima, Honduras, on the effects of slope on agricultural productivity. In that work, the
authors looked at the dynamics of sociopolitical conditions and land use decisions
through three time periods: 1955, 1975, and 1995. They demonstrated how augmented
economic pressure can result in a need to utilize land on higher slopes, putting the natural
balance of the whole ecosystem at jeopardy (Kammerbauer & Ardon, 1999). Wingard’s
(1996) erosion model also demonstrated this human-environment dynamic. In the case of
Copan, the data demonstrate how population pressure induced agricultural productivity
into higher elevations as well. As a result, the resource base of the population exerted a
pressure that probably contributed to a centralized collapse.
The patterns in the data show the results of this collapse as the center de-nucleates
and the population spreads back out onto the landscape, dissipating through time, until
about A.D. 1300. After this, the landscape is able to regenerate. The Spanish arrive later
and re-population occurs. These ancient data, compared to modern settlement data,
demonstrate how the population patterns change with the absence of a local, centralized
force operating on it.
43
Contemporary Chorti
There are other factors operating on contemporary patterns beyond the power
structure of land availability and allocation on a localized scale. Unlike the ancient Maya,
the modern population has a connection to outside market forces. Land ownership is in
the hands of the few but worked by farm laborers. Land use is governed by those few in
power and their connections to the larger international markets and the national
government. In 1978, local communities had access to imports and contributed labor to
the exports of the country. The case of flue-cured tobacco is an excellent example of this,
as the Copan community connected itself to the transnational BAT (British-American
Tobacco) Corporation and accepted its investment and technologies and their effects on
land use and population structures. New farming techniques aid in augmenting land
productivity with the introduction of fertilizers and pesticides but can also increase
degradation and pollution (Loker, 2004). This globalized atmosphere was absent amongst
the populations of the ancient Maya.
Both the ancient and modern systems demonstrate how different social molds can
operate on similar environments and still have similar results in land degradation and
exhaustion. Also, recall Erickson’s (2000) view on how an environment does not “reset”
to a pristine state but is a cumulative result of its history. Therefore, the modern context
and its level of resilience is a product of the ancient population’s relationship with the
same geographic area. Scale is important here as well because it denotes what may be
acting on these migration patterns based on land availability. The ancient Maya
44
distribution was likely a local issue of population increase and expansion and over-
exploitation of the resource base. They networked with other Mesoamerican polities with
trade of shells and jade and some migrations, for example, but not at a level of economic
significance (Webster et al., 2000). The modern distribution, on the other hand, is a
dynamic interplay between local population increases (like the Ancient Maya) and
international factors caused by external market demands (Kok, 2004).
45
CONCLUSION
Comparative studies such as this are important because they allow present
humans to learn from the mistakes and contributions of populations of the past and even
the present to the betterment of future decisions on land use (Chase et al., 2014).
Obviously, this is important because land is a resource that contributes to human
livelihood and species longevity. Much of what environmental studies has focused on in
the recent past has been sustainability, which seeks to have humans live within a
landscape carrying capacity. However, recent publications have stressed the importance
of resilience (Green et al., 2014). Resilience is a system’s ability to endure the shock
from disturbances, such as human activity, weather, and the introduction of new species
and still retain its basic ecological structure. This view is different because it does not
see the land as a resource in absolute terms where humans need to live within a given,
human-centered, quantitative means. It sees the evolutionary functions of a system and
how humans operate within the dynamics of that system and as a part of it (Walker and
Salt, 2006). It is not that sustainability is no longer a goal but that it is obtained through
resilience.
In can be argued, based on the data presented and analyzed in this thesis, that the
ancient Maya occupation in the Copan Valley is an example of a failure to be sustainable
or resilient, hence, the population boom and bust. The resilience of the entire system was
affected as more land was cleared. Micro-environmental moisture and heat
radiation/absorption cycles were altered as vegetation decreased, contributing to localized
drought conditions. As steeper slopes were exploited, erosion would have increased with
46
the loss of vegetation and that also decreased the arability of the land. Critical soil-
nutrient thresholds were surpassed for the sake of the increasing population. This is
shown in the data as steeper slopes were exploited increasingly through time as
population increased. Contemporary conditions still allow for a population to exist on the
landscape and this is evident by the presence of the current population in the Copan
Valley. Therefore, the present ecological environment within the current sociopolitical
context does not appear completely unsustainable. However, given current ecological
conditions, there is room for argument that the system is not resilient. Two examples
demonstrate this point.
Using the definition of resilience by Walker and Salt (2006), two examples can be
employed to show the devastating effects of a disturbance on a non-resilient system. The
effects of the rise and fall of the tobacco industry in the Copan Valley from the 1950s-
1990s, coupled with the effects of Hurricane Mitch in 1998, have tested this system’s
ability to bounce back from a shock. To the farm laborers at the base of the tobacco
market, abandonment of the crop meant a loss of jobs and displacement. The land once
utilized for the tobacco industry was turned over to pasture land. Not only was the
tobacco market not replaced with another booming export, but the land was not left to
regenerate nutrients in its untouched, forested state and many farmers were without milpa
lands. Loker (2005) posits that this may have contributed to the need for the Chorti to
demand more land rights from the Honduran government. This escalated into a marching
hunger strike (Chenier et al., 1999). The tobacco industry is one instance of many that
47
allows the laboring population to distrust the security of its economic reliance on exports
(Boyer and Pell, 1999).
In October of 1998, Hurricane Mitch hit the southern coast of Honduras and
devastated Tegucigalpa. Extensive mudslides ensued on the higher elevations while
flooding occurred on the bottomlands. An estimated 150,000 inhabitants were displaced,
10,000 people lost their homes, and 100,000 people were left unemployed. In El Corpus
and Concepcion de Maria, farmers were afraid to replant their ruined harvests because
rockslides still threatened the inhabitants after the initial destructive mudslides. Chiquita
Brands did nothing to help its stranded workers when they were flooded onto hilltops and
laid off 7,500 of them for the interruption in production (Boyer & Pell, 1999). Socially,
the inhabitants suffered from a lack in re-structuring support from the export companies
they relied on for employment or from the government which was more concerned with
keeping export networks open. This is demonstrated by the fact that the priority was to
re-open main artery routes instead of establishing emergency committees for
neighborhoods threatened with looting (Boyer & Pell, 1999). Ecologically, mudslides
were a major issue due to the cleared mountain regions. There was not enough vegetation
(except in milpa-planted areas) to prevent soil/debris movement on higher elevations
during the storm, hence, an increase in devastation, injury/death, and displacement
(Boyer and Pell, 1999).
The population of 1978 was (and still could be) construed as an example of the
inability of the current sociopolitical structure to create a resilient ecological system as
was demonstrated in the outcome of the stress placed on it two decades later in the
48
examples above. Ecologically, it is still “sustaining” a current population. However, if
examples of population and land use are to be applicably productive, truly understanding
them is vital. This means understanding the dynamics of the systems involved not just the
resources they possess and how humans can obtain the resources with the least impact.
Walker and Salt state (p.90-91, 2006),
The lesson is that you cannot understand or successfully manage a system--any
system, but especially a social-ecological system--by focusing on only one scale.
So often people concentrate solely on the scale of direct interest to them (their
farm, their catchment, their company, or their country), but the structure and the
dynamics at that scale, and how the system can and will respond at that scale,
strongly depends on the states and dynamics of the system at the scales above and
below.
The ancient Maya seem to have understood this concept. Before the rise of the
new polity around A.D. 426, they practiced slash and burn agriculture with a fallow rate
conducive to the natural dynamics of the tropical forest system. However, under a new
sociopolitical structure, the dynamics of that social-ecological relationship changed. In a
modern perspective like the 1978 context, population was more encroaching and
globalized. This scenario requires an increase in understanding of this interdependent
web of complex sociopolitical systems but they are actually less complex than the natural
ecosystems they rely on. It is this complexity that has allowed natural systems to evolve
the stamina to handle disturbance.
49
Human social structures and institutions should seek to mimic earth’s natural
systems: their complexity, diversity, redundancies, interdependencies (Green et al.,
2014). These systems, through the process of trial and error over time, have self-
maximized into complex adaptive systems for the best resilience on the planet. Humans
are a part of these systems and are connected to them.
However, if humans really wish to strive to adapt and thrive as a species, then
they need to focus on learning from their mistakes. This landscape GIS study of the
Copan Valley demonstrates how it is possible to better understand these human-
ecological dynamics in order to more accurately access the environmental resiliency of
previous, current, and future land use decisions.
50
BIBLIOGRAPHY
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Boyer, J. & Pell, A. (1999). Mitch in Honduras: A disaster waiting to happen. NACLA,
xxxiii(2), 36-43.
Chase, A. F., Lucero, L. J., Scarborough, V. L., Chase, D. Z., Cobos, R., Dunning, N. P.,
… Liendo, R. (2014). Tropical landscapes and the ancient Maya: Diversity in
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Chenier, J., Sherwood, S., & Tahnee, R. (1999). Copan, Honduras: Collaboration for
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Culbert, P. (1973). The classic Maya collapse. Albuquerque, New Mexico: New Mexico
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Erickson, C. L. (2000). The Lake Titicaca basin: A pre-Columbian built landscape. Lentz,
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Fash, W. (1983). Maya state formation: A case study and its implications. (Doctoral
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Freter, A. (1988). The classic Maya collapse at Copan, Honduras: A regional settlement
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perspective. (Doctoral dissertation). The Pennsylvania State University.
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Kammerbauer, J. & Ardon, C. (1999). Land use dynamics and land use change pattern in
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Kok, K. (2004). The role of population in understanding Honduran land use changes.
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Paine, R. & Freter, A. (1996). Environmental degradation and the Classic Maya collapse
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Paine, R., Freter, A., & Webster, D. (1996). A mathematical projection of population
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Boulder, CO: University Press of Colorado.
53
APPENDIX: RAW DATA FOR TIME SERIES
SITE
#
SITE_
Class
A.D.
250-
400
A.D.
400-
550
A.D.
550-
700
A.D.
700-
850
A,D.
850-
1000
A.D.
1000-
1150
A.D.
1150-
1300
Elev
in
masl
Slo
in °
As
p
in °
6A_1
_2
AG 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 741 2 26
6A_3
_4
2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 743 6 88
6A_4
_1
4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 734 4 290
6A_1
1_1
3 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 720 1 230
6A_1
9_2
SM 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 729 2 263
6B_1
_8
AG 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 751 9 35
6B_4
_5
AG 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 880 16 297
99A_
14_1
NM 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 660 7 42
99A_
18_2
1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 720 2 275
99A_ 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 758 8 139
54
25_2
99A_
26_3
1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 760 15 126
99A_
26_5
SM 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 760 8 117
99A_
29_1
SM 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 620 10 315
99A_
29_2
SM 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 620 10 315
99A_
29_4
NM 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 660 5 164
99A_
30_1
SM 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 680 13 236
99A_
30_2
SM 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 720 9 230
99A_
31_1
1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 700 11 225
99A_
31_2
SM 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 700 11 234
99A_
31_3
1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 680 10 211
99A_
31_4
1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 680 12 225
99A_ SM 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 640 10 239
55
31_6
99A_
31_7
SM 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 680 15 225
99A_
32_1
NM 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 700 7 223
99A_
32_3
NM 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 705 12 221
99A_
32_4
NM 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 740 13 157
99A_
33_2
SM 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 680 12 8
99A_
34_2
1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 740 10 31
99A_
34_3
SM 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 740 10 290
99A_
35_1
2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 740 10 305
99A_
35_3
1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 800 13 352
99A_
36_1
NM 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 740 21 294
99A_
36_2
SM 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 660 9 11
99B_ 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 701 3 317
56
1_1
99B_
5_1
SM 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 721 0 -1
99B_
9_1
NM 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 720 7 90
99B_
12_2
NM 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 780 17 127
99B_
15_1
SM 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 720 9 185
99B_
17_1
1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 900 13 326
99B_
20_1
NM 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 780 7 90
99B_
20_3
NM 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 860 17 37
CP_1
2G_6
1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 600 8 328
CP_9
H_3
1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 645 9 214
CP_9
G_5
1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 620 7 180
CP_1
1J_1
1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 600 0 225
LGW 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 776 0 270
57
_2
LGW
_9
1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 760 11 90
CP_1
4D_
M7
SM 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 608 3 315
CP_1
4D_
M8
SM 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 608 3 315
11B_
2_1
AG 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 980 24 106
11C_
3_1
AG 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 700 10 315
11D_
8_1
2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 660 8 42
11D_
8_2
2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 660 5 301
11D_
8_4
1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 660 2 83
11D_
9_1
AG 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 693 7 348
11D_
11_2
1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 700 6 286
11D_ 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 680 10 211
58
11_3
18A_
1_2
AG 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 700 16 243
18A_
2_3
SM 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 780 13 157
18A_
2_4
NM 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 800 4 92
18A_
7_1
1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 740 3 180
18B_
1_3
1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 800 7 177
34C_
12_4
1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 640 15 144
34C_
14_1
NM 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 640 8 118
34C_
23_1
1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 840 13 304
34D_
2_1
1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 780 9 165
34D_
2_2
1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 780 10 151
18B_
5_5
AG 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 860 18 191
18C_ AG 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 693 10 161
59
1_1
18C_
4_2
2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 678 2 159
18C_
5_2
1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 680 8 174
18C_
5_3
1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 660 8 310
18D_
3_3
AG 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 660 0 325
18D_
6_1
1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 640 5 228
25A_
3_1
AG 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 620 4 90
32D_
3_2
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_2
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1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 693 10 288
7A_1
_1
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7A_7
_1
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_1
AG 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 740 1 168
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_1
AG 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 714 3 45
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_1
1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 713 5 27
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_1
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_2
9A-
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_4
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_5
2 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 737 4 262
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_1
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_7
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_1
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_2
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_3
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_5
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_6
AG 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 700 1 268
9D_6 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 724 1 261
65
_1
9D_6
_3
SM 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 700 3 348
CP_1
4D_
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SM 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 611 3 147
CP_1
3F_3
1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 600 8 234
CP_1
3F_6
1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 600 4 45
CP_1
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3 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 600 3 337
CP_9
L_11
1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 620 13 124
CP_9
I_1
4 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 632 0 180
CP_7
L_M
28
SM 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 720 4 185
CP_7
K_4
1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700 10 237
CP_1
1M_8
1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 640 10 329
CP_9 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 607 2 84
66
N_8
CP_9
M_10
2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 606 4 244
CP_1
0E_2
1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 651 3 304
CP_1
2H_3
1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 600 7 0
CP_1
2H_4
1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 600 12 218
CP_9
M_22
3 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 604 0 211
CP_9
M_24
1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 606 0 235
CP_7
N_19
1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 640 10 121
CP_8
N_11
4 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 608 4 132
CP_5
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25
SM 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 680 9 101
CP_5
N_7
1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 680 8 117
CP_6
N_1
2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 700 14 90
67
CP_4
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1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 680 11 198
CP_1
1O_1
1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 680 11 288
CP_1
1O_2
1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 680 11 288
CP_7
O_6
1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 600 10 288
CP_3
O_7
1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 718 9 178
CP_5
O_12
1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 680 7 180
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White, Patrica Accepted Thesis 11-23-15 Fa15-1

  • 1. Reconstructing Ancient and Modern Land Use Decisions in the Copan Valley, Honduras: A GIS Landscape Archaeology Perspective A thesis presented to the faculty of the Voinovich School of Leadership & Public Affairs In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Master of Science Patricia J. White December 2015 © 2015 Patricia J. White. All Rights Reserved.
  • 2. 2 This thesis titled Reconstructing Ancient and Modern Land Use Decisions in the Copan Valley, Honduras: A GIS Landscape Archaeology Perspective by PATRICIA J. WHITE has been approved for the Program of Environmental Studies and the Voinovich School of Leadership and Public Affairs by AnnCorinne Freter-Abrams Professor Emerita of Anthropology Mark Weinberg Director, Voinovich School of Leadership & Public Affairs
  • 3. 3 ABSTRACT WHITE, PATRICIA J., M.S., December 2015, Environmental Studies Reconstructing Ancient and Modern Land Use Decisions in the Copan Valley, Honduras: A GIS Landscape Archaeology Perspective Director of Thesis: AnnCorinne Freter-Abrams This thesis is an analysis of land use patterns in the Copan Valley, Honduras. It is a comparative, GIS-based analysis of the archaeological/population site data of the ancient Copan Maya population (A.D. 250-1300) and the 1978 modern Copan Valley population. These two populations were compared to ascertain the resilience of the Valley’s ecosystem over time. Time series data from the ancient Maya was combined with mean center and standard distances tests on both populations and these were overlain onto slope and aspect data to determine how both populations utilized similar landscapes. Results demonstrate that the ancient Mayan utilization of the valley was non resilient, and unsustainable, while the 1978 population was also non resilient, and only currently sustainable due to outside markets.
  • 4. 4 AKNOWLEDGMENTS This thesis would not have been possible without the assistance of several people, departments, and institutions. First, a heavy debt is owed to all the Copan researchers who have investigated this valley for over a 100 years. The data for this thesis was generously supported by the Instituto Hondureño de Antropología e Historia and by three grants from the National Science Foundation (Webster and Sanders, BNS-8219421; Webster, BNS-8419933; and Webster and Freter BNS-219421). Second, thanks to the Environmental Studies program for all of their help and support; Third, thanks to everyone on my committee. I appreciate the time they have taken to help me complete this work and degree. Elliot Abrams assisted with edits while Dorothy Sack generously took a “last minute” seat on my committee, and provided supportive feedback. AnnCorinne Freter was supportive after I took a long hiatus from this work and encouraged me to finish. If she wasn’t as on board as I about its completion, I don’t think it would’ve gotten finished. Gaurav Sinha assisted with several GIS questions and his help was invaluable the thesis’ completion. Last, on a personal level, thank you to my Grams (Doris)…for being helpful, supportive, and patient during my graduate degree research. You really are the best.
  • 5. 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Abstract……………………………………………………………………………………3 Acknowledgments………………………………………………………………………....4 List of Figures……………………………………………………………………………..6 Introduction………………………………………………………………………………..7 Copan Valley, Honduras: Background…………………………………………………..11 Physical Environment………………………………………………………………….11 Ancient Cultural History……………………………………………………………….14 Archaeological History………………………………………………………………...15 Methods…………………………………………………………………………………..20 Data…………………………………………………………………………………….20 GIS Techniques………………………………………………………………………...24 Mean Center………………………………………………………………………….24 Standard Distance……………………………………………………………………25 Slope…………………………………………………………………………………26 Aspect………………………………………………………..………………………27 Results………………………………………………………………………………….28 Contemporary Conditions………………………………………………………………..34 Modern Settlement Data……………………………………………………………….36 Discussion………………………………………………………………………………..41 Ancient Maya…………………………………………………………………………..41 Contemporary Chorti…………………………………………………………………..43 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………….45 Bibliography……………………………………………………………………………..50 Appendix: Raw Data for Time Series...………………………………………………….53
  • 6. 6 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Area Map………………………………………………………………………12 Figure 2: Map of All Surveyed Sites…………………………………………………….21 Figure 3: Time Series…………………………………………………………………….23 Figure 4: Mean Center of Ancient Population…………………………………………...25 Figure 5: Standard Distance of Ancient Population……………………………………..28 Figure 6: Graph, Time Series Average Slope……………………………………………30 Figure 7: Graph, Average Slope by Site Type…………………………………………...31 Figure 8: All Surveyed Sites across Aspect……………………………………………...32 Figure 9: Graph, Average Aspect by Site Type………………………………………….33 Figure 10: Population Distribution, 1978………………………………………………..37 Figure 11: Mean Center & Standard Distance of 1978 Population……………………...38 Figure 12: 1978 Population across Aspect……………………………………………….39
  • 7. 7 INTRODUCTION To some scholars, humans are viewed as ecological parasites, degrading their ecosystems from pristine states (Erickson, 2000). This thesis is an attempt to show the impacts humans have had as they have adapted as a species. Although this viewpoint provides an awareness of the impacts human have in ecosystems, it also perpetuates the human perspective as being apart from their surroundings or even superior to them. It creates a human-centric mindset from which humans make exploitative decisions where they view their relationship with the natural environment within a supply and demand framework. However, there are some that see this human-nature relationship as an adaptive dynamic but even within this perspective, there is still a tendency to view this dynamic as one where humans operate within a carrying capacity or a subjective balance of supply and demand (Erickson, 2000). Carrying capacity is the key concept to the idea of sustainability. It is the number of people that an environment can support without changing its productivity level (Moran, 2000). Moran discusses how this capacity is dependent upon the technologies present in the environment and a set time frame (2000). Therefore, sustainability implies an environment that operates within static absolute amounts and concrete points of equilibrium available for exploitation, instead of a dynamic, adaptive environment that changes and evolves around a shifting equilibrium, with humans as a part of the system (Walker and Salt, 2006). Erickson (2000) furthers this view of an adaptive dynamic because he presents the issue with the perspective of the environment as a system able to reset into a pristine state after a period of exploitation by humans. Instead, he explains that at any moment in time an environment’s state is the
  • 8. 8 accumulated result of its evolution, including its relationship with humans. Although, authors like Erickson who have recognized the human-nature dynamic but have urged for a relationship where humans operate within a sustainable level of resources in the supply and demand perspective, many are now positing to create an encompassing system dynamic that operates within a level of resilience (Green, Garmestani, Hopton, & Heberling, 2014). Walker and Salt (p. xiii, 2006) define resilience as “the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and still retain its basic function and structure. The idea behind resilience is the need to utilize all the functions, cycles, roles, and redundancies of a system with the goal of optimal performance. Ecosystems actually operate. They do not simply have a supply of resources but are an adaptive dynamic of relationships, developed over time. (Walker & Salt, 2006). Walker and Salt (2006) define this process of adaptive system as self-organizing. They explain that hierarchical patterns produced by key processes within the system are perpetuated by those patterns (Walker & Salt, 2006). Biological diversity leads to redundancies of roles in systems that operate to serve the whole (Walker & Salt, 2006). If diversity diminishes, by deforestation for example, then there is less of an overlap in roles and few to pick up the slack in the face of disturbance. This results in a loss of resilience. Coral reefs are an example Walker and Salt (2006) utilize to demonstrate an ecosystem that bounce back from disturbances all the time, pointing out their resilience. However, as the human aspect has increased in the system, they have lacked the ability to recover.
  • 9. 9 Humans play a role in a given ecosystem but are actually able to adapt their role to help strengthen or weaken the system. In contemporary society, that role includes social institutions that govern how the natural environment is exploited. Green et al (2014), address resilience through a multi-scalar law model on handling the natural environment (2014). They emphasize the importance of scale in determining what is considered resilient. A lack of resilience in a system can be caused by different levels in that system, so pinpointing the level(s) of issue are a huge part in investigation (Walker & Salt, 2006). The two populations in this thesis are not only a good example of how a lack of resilience can be caused from different levels in a system, and represent good case studies for gaining a perspective of resilience through both an ancient and modern population, which can be utilized for further studies. The data in this thesis demonstrate that the ancient Maya in Copan, Honduras exemplify a population that did not lead to a more resilient human-nature system, and which was not operating within the absolutes of sustainability. The Copan Dynasty demonstrated a rise and fall of a population. The modern Copan population is still operating within its natural environment and although there are attempts at maintaining an extended dynamic between humans and their environment, there is a question as to whether that relationship results in a resilient system. The goal of this thesis is to use GIS to analyze the settlement and chronological data from both ancient and modern populations in Copan to observe how each population utilized similar landscapes through the perspective of the human-ecological dynamic. Similar landscapes are considered here instead of exactly the same environment because
  • 10. 10 of the adoption of Erickson’s (2000) logic that an environment is never exactly the same after it is utilized but is a product of everything shaping it at any given point in time. However, the region in question is still the same ecological system in general after ancient use. Therefore, the ancient and modern population’s environment are assumed to be similar enough for a comparative study. This is a GIS-based analysis of archaeological population data compiled by Freter during the PAC II survey in Copan, Honduras (Webster, Freter, & Gonlin, 2000). The ancient population data show population and land use over time by the Maya in the region, demonstrating the rise and fall of a polity and its inhabitants. The modern population is a snapshot of the 1978 population across the landscape in Copan, Honduras. The distributions of the two populations in the Valley are analyzed by the variables of slope, aspect, and generalized using mean center and standard distance spatial statistics. The results of these analyses are then interpreted within their respective sociopolitical contexts and environmental inferences are made about the level of resilience of each system.
  • 11. 11 COPAN VALLEY, HONDURAS: BACKGROUND Physical Environment The study area is defined as the 400 km2 of the Copan Valley watershed within Honduras. Figure 1 gives an overview of the region. It is defined by five different “pockets” (bolsas) of rich alluvium, surrounded by foothills, which rise to high mountains. The alluvial pockets are preferred for agriculture over the soil of the highlands. The soil becomes less arable and more vulnerable to erosion at higher elevations. The largest alluvial pocket is the Copan pocket (1,200 ha), followed by Santa Rita, El Jaral, Rio Amarillo West, and Rio Amarillo East. All of these fertile pockets are crossed by stream systems (Webster et al., 2000). The various ecological zones are segregated by slope. The bottom lands, like the Copan Pocket, are the active alluvium best for cultivation. This pattern is not uniform across the region, however, which results in a patchy pattern of gentle slopes that lead from the bottomlands to the higher elevations to sharp rises to higher elevations with steeper inclines. Rainfall and temperature are slightly affected by elevation but the higher elevations are still able to sustain the staple crops (maize, beans) of the region for some of the year (Webster et al., 2000). The valley has a defined wet and dry season. The wet season falls between May and January. The soil is supportive of the cultivation of maize, beans, tobacco, coffee, and cacao. During the dry season especially, the Copan River and its Sesesmil tributary are important for irrigation today. Left untouched, the land is capable of developing into a dense, mixed tropical forest. Mahogany, cedar, and ceiba
  • 12. 12 dominate the lowlands while pine and oak, dominate at higher elevations. The elevation ranges from 600 meters above sea level in the Copan pocket to 1400 meters above sea level in the mountains (Webster et al., 2000). Figure 1. Map showing Copan, Honduras (modified by Culbert, 1973). It is important to describe the fragility of tropical soils, their climatic environment, and the micro-environmental and erosional effects of deforestation. Generally, tropical soils are easily degraded and the most popular way to exploit them
  • 13. 13 amongst indigenous populations is slash and burn agriculture. Sections of forest are burned to release the nutrients in the vegetation quickly which are then cultivated with maize for a few growing seasons before being left to regenerate back into forest (fallow periods). Wingard (1996) discussed how the soils in this particular area are highly acidic and dependent upon the regrowth of vegetation and release of the nutrients through fire rather than soil characteristics alone for productivity. Therefore, if an ecological threshold is surpassed that is unable to maintain the nutrient levels in the soil, the area will no longer be suitable for cultivation. Deforestation and continuous cultivation that does not allow soils to regenerate long enough to accumulate nutrients can contribute to this degrading scenario. Deforestation leaves the ground vulnerable to erosion, especially at steeper slopes in higher elevations, and interrupts local moisture cycles because of the diminished vegetation (Shaw, 2003). The climate of the region with its definite wet and dry seasons also creates a sensitive landscape vulnerable to critical thresholds for certain practices. Shaw (2003) addresses how these conditions and climatic uncertainties increase with deforestation. According to Shaw (2003), the surface albedo (% reflectivity of solar energy) is different for a cleared versus a forested system. The greater albedo of the forested system than a cleared one results in cooler temperatures for the forest. Additionally, the forest system is capable of absorbing more humidity from soil than the cleared, agricultural system because of its capacity to house larger air masses at similar temperatures. Further, deforested systems have a decreased ability to retain moisture (Shaw, 2003). All of these local changes result in warmer, drier microclimatic conditions vulnerable to drought,
  • 14. 14 consequently adding to the declining soil conditions of a cleared system. If the area is not exploited agriculturally in a manner and at a rate to merit ecological sustainability, the system (not just the soil) will undergo a process of declining productivity. These are the conditions any human group has to grapple with when occupying the Copan Valley. Ancient Cultural History According to a sediment core from 1989, ancient inhabitants were exploiting the valley with slash and burn agriculture since 3600 B.C. (Webster et al., 2000). Evidence of maize cultivation is demonstrated as early as 2,000 B.C. Farming, in the form of slash and burn agriculture, and pottery evidence in the Copan Valley started at about 1400 B.C. By A.D. 400, evidence of a new political structure and population growth in the valley emerged (Webster et al., 2000). An individual presumed to be from Teotihuacan, K’inich Yax K’uk Mo’, appears in the monumental record of the Copan Valley circa A.D. 426. He is the first ruler of what becomes the Copan Dynasty. His presence is archaeologically punctuated by Mayan iconography on monumental architecture and in hieroglyphic inscriptions. A political structure developed that through time produced a succession of 16 kings at Copan (Webster et al, 2000). The population began to grow and was concentrated within an urban core in the Copan Pocket around what later became the Main Center. The Main Center is where rituals were celebrated and population was densest. According to Webster et al (2000), there were also two urban barrios, designated archaeologically as
  • 15. 15 Las Sepulturas and El Bosque, that fanned out around the Main Center to create the urban core of the site. These areas were populated by residences of semi-autonomous communal units with their own domestic ritual centers, agricultural gardens, and pottery manufacturing areas. According to Paine, Freter, and Webster (1996), the core reached a density of about 12,000 people per km2 at its height in A.D. 800. Population in the total valley peaked at about 28,000 around A.D. 750 and the political structure had an abrupt political collapse starting at about A.D. 822, followed by a gradual population decline and spatial diffusion that lasted until about A.D. 1250 (Paine et al., 1996). After A.D. 1400, agriculture was completely abandoned, allowing for forest regeneration until the Spanish arrived in the 1500s (Webster et al., 2000). Archaeological History The Copan Valley has a rich archaeological past. The Main Center in the urban core was the earliest known area to be mapped, cross-sectioned, and sketched in 1834 by archaeologist Juan Galindo and again in 1839 by John Stevens and Frederick Catherwood. Work was then expanded from 1881 to 1895 by Alfred Maudslay, supported by the Peabody Museum. The Carnegie Project followed this from 1935 to 1946, during which the Copan River was diverted away from the Main Group. The first real attempt at capturing the remains outside of the Main Group was a map made by Robert Burgh created in 1935-1946 and published in 1952 (Longyear, 1952). This focus on the outlying areas was expanded upon more intensely during The Harvard Project in 1977 by William
  • 16. 16 Fash (1983), who remapped and surveyed Las Sepulturas. Specialized projects of architectural mapping and photographing were undertaken by Hasso Hohmann and Annegrete Vogrin in the 1970s. Finally, two highly intensive excavations, called PAC (Proyecto Arqueologico Copan) I and PAC II, were initiated by the Honduran government from 1977 to 1984 (Webster et al., 2000). PAC I and PAC II produced a mass of data. Claude F. Baudez, through the French Center for Scientific Research, led the PAC I. During this excavation project, sections of the Main Group were restored and a ceramic sequence first proposed by John M. Longyear, was expanded upon by Rene Viel (1983, 1993a, b). An attempt was also made to represent the outlying areas by mapping and surveying the Copan Pocket, conducting a survey of the broader Rio Copan drainage area, test pitting 1% of mounds in the Pocket, excavating 15 more sites, and performing a random subsurface testing for sites. The last of these proved valuable, as many sites are built on top of the remnants of older ones. Finally, the PAC I, through a survey initiated by Baudez, provided ecological and land use data of the region through ethnographic surveying (Leventhal, 1979). In 1980, the PAC II phase was initiated through the Pennsylvania State University directed by William T. Sander and David Webster. It was during this phase that Ann Freter (1993) collected data employed for this thesis. Building on the initial work of earlier excavations, PAC II undertook additional excavations throughout the Main Group and Las Sepulturas, and extensive rural surface surveys of the settlements in the Rio Copan and Rio Sesesmil drainages. This phase was an attempt to reconstruct the
  • 17. 17 sociopolitical context and the processes of ecological relationships and population dynamics (Webster et al., 2000). During PAC II, Freter conducted obsidian hydration dating on a stratified random sample of the 400 km2 area and produced 2,264 dates. These dates have been complemented by radiocarbon and ceramic dating in the region (Webster et al., 2005). Copan Valley sites are classified into four general types by the amount and type of structures found and the building materials utilized. Type 1 sites are constructed from earthen material and rough stone. They have two or more buildings situated around one or more plazas. Type 2 sites have one or more plazas and 6 to 8 mounds and are built of rubble and blocks. In Type 3 sites this design escalates to taller mounds and dressed cut stone. Finally the most elaborate sites are Type 4, which have many intricately grouped plazas and mounds, and the material is dressed stone built into vaulted ceiling with some sculptures (Webster et al., 2000). In addition to horizontal excavations, surveys, and dating, Wingard (1996) tested a soil model on the topography. The model represented an attempt to reconstruct the relationships between population dynamics, deforestation, and soil erosion. Wingard utilized the Erosion/Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) model created by the USDA. Six slope classes were defined soils to help identify which slope variables are influenced by erosion and which decline from nutrient depletion. As far as modeling the agricultural habits of the Ancient Maya, EPIC allowed for a ten-year interval where eight years were fallow periods and two were actively cropped. The model was then modified to project the effects of decreases in fallow periods (Wingard, 1996).
  • 18. 18 The model divides the landscape into three general areas: alluvial pockets, foothills, and steeper hillsides. The simulation begins at A.D. 1 with 1,000 inhabitants. Up to A.D. 700, an annual population growth rate of about 0.30 percent is used. From A.D. 700-850, it increases to approximately 0.80 percent annually. These data, when paired with the obsidian hydration dates collected by Freter (1993), show a population concentration in the Copan Pocket followed by a northward and eastward expansion (Wingard, 1996) as it grew, peaking at about 28,000 inhabitants. Evidence suggests that the urban core housed a population density of approximately 12,000 km2 (Webster et al., 2000). According to Wingard (1996), the bottom land alluvium and the foothills were exploited first since they were the most densely populated, closer to water, and richer in soil nutrients than the higher elevations. Therefore, the lands would have been degraded by overuse in these regions rather than by erosion. As population increased, fallow periods were decreased. Eventually, the soil was in constant production. This induced people to move to higher elevations and to begin cultivating the hillsides. Hillsides, on higher slopes, have poorer soils that are more erosion-prone, thus their production is limited. Wingard (1996, p. 219) states the dynamics of this scenario, “the absolute increase in population is greater each year as a result of a constant growth rate operating on an increasing population. However, the absolute decline in productivity on land under cultivation is also increasing each year as the area of land under cultivation, and hence subject to degradation, is increasing.”
  • 19. 19 After A.D. 850, the population growth rate declines in the region to about 0.30 percent annually and the Maya political system changes (Webster et al., 2000). Paine and Freter (1996) show a high risk of hillside abandonment first due to poorer soils and their erosive tendencies, followed by later abandonment of the richer alluvium bottomlands. As previously described, this region is vulnerable to overuse if a keen, ecologically mindful, exploitative method is not practiced on this sensitive tropical landscape. The archaeological, chronological, and pedological evidence suggest that settlement dynamics of the ancient Maya were the product of the ecological decisions of the population and their resultant relationship with the environment as demonstrated in their movement onto higher elevations with an increase in population. Generally, the ancient Maya endured a colonization boom and bust as resources were exploited and exhausted.
  • 20. 20 METHODS The primary objective of the GIS analysis is to describe settlement patterns of the ancient Maya in the Copan Valley from A.D. 250-A.D.1300 and compare them to the 1978 population. It is anticipated that this comparison can be coupled with relevant literature to provide insight into the land use manifestations of each sociopolitical structure. GIS is useful here because it demonstrates visually the statistical movement of population across the landscape. Point data are useful for looking at distribution patterns, and when a time series is added it shows how these distributions shift over time. A common way to generalize this statistically is by utilizing the geographical mean center and the standard distance and overlaying them across landscape variables, such as slope and aspect. Data The data consist of 169 sites that represent a stratified random sample of the total 1,430 sites. The sample is stratified based on site type (NM, AG, SM, and T1-T4) and geographic area, using an aerial photograph number for the outlying regions and grid square numbers for the Copan Pocket. The archaeological data for this study are the site location, chronology, and environmental setting observations collected by Freter, analyzed with an ArcGIS geodatabase and contextual shapefiles. Point data represent all of the ancient mapped sites throughout all time periods from colonization to the political collapse across the 400 km2 area (Figure 2). Polygon data extrapolated from 1978 aerial
  • 21. 21 photographs give the contemporary population pattern. Freter has also included line data of digitized topographic lines, trails, roads, and streams. Finally, there is polygon data on the research universe (Freter, 1988). The initial geographic coordinate system and data presented is in NAD 1927. Between the settlement survey, test pit excavations, and obsidian hydration dating, this GIS database represents a rare opportunity to analyze in greater depth the ancient Maya settlement trends through time. In order for the data to be utilized for the purpose of the study some preparation and manipulation was required. Figure 2. Distribution of all surveyed sites across archaeological areas.
  • 22. 22 Because the goal of the thesis is to determine settlement patterns over time, the settlement point data need dates attached to them. Only those dated through Freter’s (1988) obsidian hydration and radiocarbon efforts are available (n=169). The site dates were input as a time series in an attribute table of the site data ranging from A.D 250- A.D. 1300 (Figure 3). The appendix lists the raw data. These categories were separated by 150 year intervals to capture the accuracy range of the obsidian hydration dates, +/- 150 years. Each of these six intervals was selected and exported as a new layer in ArcMap. The first two intervals were merged into one as they showed only a slight difference. There was also only a slight difference between A.D. 700-A.D. 850 and A.D. 850-A.D. 1000. These, however, were left distinct because the two time intervals fall on the cusp of the population peak and collapse and peak population. Even a slight variation might demonstrate a meaningful pattern connected to the contextual social conditions of the time.
  • 23. 23 Figure 3. Spatial time series of dated sites. In an effort to work with linear measurement during analysis, the geographic coordinate system was converted to UTM from the original NAD 1927 geographic coordinate system. The digitized topographic polylines were converted to raster format and “no data” gaps were filled in using an algorithm through map algebra. This allows for a view of migration patterns relating to elevation.
  • 24. 24 GIS Techniques Mean Center In an effort to obtain a statistical visualization of how the population during each time interval was distributed across the landscape, the mean center and standard distance were calculated for each time interval (Figures 4 & 5). The mean center represents the average position of the sites across the landscape. This is the point at which all of the X and Y points tend to gravitate and is equated with the mean in general statistics (Unwin, 1983). If a distribution of points is separated by time frames, then the mean center of each time frame can be plotted spatially to demonstrate the temporal movement through time (Smith, 1975). This results in a single spatial point focusing the trajectory of the population across the landscape into an average. Its counterpart, the standard distance, shows the variation about the mean center.
  • 25. 25 Figure 4. Distribution of population mean centers through time. Standard Distance Standard distance is the same as the standard deviation in general statistics and can be calculated to show how the distribution of the points fall with respect to that mean center (Unwin, 1983). Figure 5 shows this applied to the data. An example of this technique is described in Smith (1975) and was done in a study on the manufacturing belt
  • 26. 26 in the United States through the time period of 1899 to 1963. These patterns were then viewed in light of qualitative background data to create inferences about the patterns, the same objective of this thesis. The standard distance calculates a set number of standard deviations around that average. For this purpose, one standard deviation sufficed as two encompassed the whole distribution. This calculation is demonstrated as a circle around the area with the average in the center, representing 68% of the whole spatial distribution of the time interval. Slope Slope is a measurement taken from an elevation raster based on a rise on the landscape. It is calculated in degrees as a ratio, or percent rise but for this purpose, degrees are used. The output is a value from 0-90 degrees. Ninety is a vertical line and anything under, the respective angle from the horizontal. Slope was calculated on the DEM using the slope tool. The values for each point on the ancient data layer were then denoted using the “Extract Multi Values to Points” tool. The 1978 data are polygons input by Freter from aerial photographs, representing houses. These needed to be converted to points to get a single slope value. GIS does this conversion by utilizing the central point in each polygon. These values were then submitted through the same extraction process for the slope values. Aspect is another value this tool can be used on.
  • 27. 27 Aspect Aspect is also measured in degrees but from 0-360. It represents a panoramic categorization of slope angles across a landscape starting in the north, moving clockwise across the DEM. Therefore, anything at 0 degrees or 360 degrees denotes north facing slopes. Anything in between the two extremes represents the respective directions in movement. From this aspect raster, the extract tool was utilized to obtain the aspect data from both the ancient and modern sites.
  • 28. 28 Figure 5. Distribution of population standard distances through time. Results The time series settlement patterns show an overall trend to the north and east. The population starts in the Copan Pocket in the first time interval A.D. 250-A.D. 550 and begins the movement from there. The population density is highest in the Pocket and population peaks in the interval A.D. 700-850. The population also fans out across the
  • 29. 29 landscape in this interval and continues to increase just slightly thereafter in the A.D.850- A.D.1000 interval. It finally starts retracting and dissipating by A.D. 1300 in the overall study area. This movement reflects the trend in population change over time shown by the mean center analysis. The standard distance captures the variation in this population movement as the population radius fans out and up with respect to the average presented in the mean center analysis. Again, population is concentrated with little spatial dispersion in the earlier years of the Copan Dynasty and centered in the Pocket. As the population grows, it moves eastward and spatial dispersion moves upslope. The limited productivity of the land on higher elevations may be expressed in this variation as each “patch” of utilized land has to be under production less intensely than lowlands and more would have to be used, resulting in a pattern where inhabitants spread out more to exploit that type of land. Figure 6 demonstrates a change in mean slope of land with sites over time as more land becomes cultivated. The pattern reflected here is a movement upslope after the commencement of the Copan Dynasty and the steeper choice of slope remaining steady until after the political collapse. The later years demonstrate a gradual decline in the slope of occupied terrain before abandonment of the valley.
  • 30. 30 Figure 6. Time series slope averages. Figure 7 shows the distribution of slope by site type on all of the surveyed ancient sites. Less elaborate sites, shown in the first category are those found on steeper sloping regions. Sites containing more elaborate structures, mounds, and ceremonial centers, are found on gentler slopes. This signifies a social distribution where sites sustaining elite members of society were situated on land better suited for exploitation or larger constructions needed larger parcels of level land. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Average Slope Over Time Average slope in degrees
  • 31. 31 Figure 7. Average slope of all surveyed sites by site type. Figure 8 shows the ancient population across aspect. Aspect, as previously described, shows the compass direction that a slope faces, with 0° and 360° being north. As Figure 8 shows, the ancient Maya preferred sites on southern slopes while Figure 9 shows the distribution of aspect by site type. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Slope of all Site Types Average slope in degrees
  • 32. 32 Figure 8. Distribution of all surveyed sites across aspect.
  • 33. 33 Figure 9. Average aspect of all surveyed sites by site type. Based on these data, it appears that inhabitants of the overall study region preferred southern exposures. These data for slope and aspect provide a better understanding of ancient land use decisions. The population movement onto steeper slopes through time might reflect the fact that additional land is no longer available for cultivation on lower-lying regions. The land is either exhausted or is under constant production and more land is needed to support the population. Aspect brings up some interesting questions about why there is a clear preference for eastern to southern facing slopes. Over time aspect does not seem to change as much as slope does, so an inference for preference based on exploitation pressures will not be made here. However, it is safe to infer that it may have something to do with the sun’s angles on homes or crops during certain seasons to assure successful harvests or as a labor tactic to stay out of the sun at the most productive points of the day. A look at the modern data may add to this understanding. 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 Aspect of all Site Types Average aspect in degrees
  • 34. 34 CONTEMPORARY CONDITIONS The Spanish Conquistadors arrived in the Copan Valley in the 1500s and began the process of displacing the Chorti Maya (modern descendants of the ancient population) and setting up governmental land ownership. In the 1800s, Honduras was delineated politically, dividing the Chorti between Guatemala and Honduras. The system of land ownership and allocation established by 1900, is one in which a few powerful landowners own the majority of the land while rural peasants work the land as laborers (Chenier, Sherwood, & Robertson, 1999). Tucker (2008) discusses the current land tenure system in La Campa, Honduras, which demonstrates how land is delegated throughout the country. The municipio (local district) divides up the land for use among villagers. This division is necessary because it is not common for families to privately own their land, and the formalized policy of holding land is often carried out in an informal manner. For example, titles are not generally exchanged institutionally but are hand written (Tucker, 2008). Requirements for utilizing the land are dependent on the scenario. Families may use land to cultivate personal milpas, which are subsistence cultivation lots generally consisting of maize, beans, and squash. However, there may be an added caveat for a farmer to couple this personal use with commercial use as a contribution to broader economic endeavors. In La Campa, coffee became the major commercial crop for this purpose through the 1990s. Copan, on the other hand, underwent a boom and bust with tobacco from the 1950s through the 1990s. With the introduction of a commercial crop, the investment of the
  • 35. 35 national government and international investors brings development and prosperity to an area and the influx of employment, infrastructure, and their respective technologies. However, the area that sees this growth and development from external players is also dependent on what this development creates socially, economically, and physically. Tobacco was initially very successful but when outside contexts changed with antismoking campaigns, the market changed. Therefore, those campesinos (farmers) relying on the income ultimately suffered (Loker, 2005). The Chorti essentially suffered at the expense of land allocation policies. In the 1970s the government granted a few groups of Chorti some land to relieve the stresses of the growing population, but the land was of higher slope. As we recall from the Ancient Mayan example, this type of land has a low carrying capacity and is not conducive to meeting the agricultural needs of an increasing population. Attempts were made by the rural community in the 1980s to form unions to gain additional land and credit but they were met with resistance and violence (Chenier et al., 1999). In the 1990s, the Chorti attempted further to unionize by forming groups, such as the National Chorti Indian Council of Honduras, to use as vehicles to gain more land from their government. Again, they were met with resistance when Candido Amador, a Chorti leader, was assassinated in 1997. A hunger strike that same year gained enough international attention to grant the Chorti some more land but it was of poor quality once again (Chenier et al., 1999). How and when the land is cultivated, and how intensely it is cultivated, result from a mix of governmental decisions, commercial factors, and local community and familial subsistence needs. How much forest is cleared to meet these
  • 36. 36 needs is another factor contributing to land use. In the case of La Campa, there had been episodes of deforestation and reforestation through the 1990s. In the Copan valley, the tobacco boom required an increase in deforestation because processing flue-cured tobacco required the timber for fuel. When tobacco production in the area failed and the British-American Tobacco Corporation (BAT) retreated, the land was turned over to cattle grazing instead of regenerated into forest (Loker, 2005).This sociopolitical atmosphere governs how the population is dispersed and land is utilized. Modern Settlement Data Contemporary conditions defined here are the settlement data for the 1978 population. As noted above, these data were available as polygons digitized from 1978 aerial photographs by Freter (Figure 10). The polygons are actually houses in patterns that are similar to the communal structure of the ancient Maya. A trail and roads layer has been added to the stream and polygon layers in GIS to reflect contemporary conditions. Mean center and standard distance calculations were made on these data. This is not a time a series but a simple snapshot in time of an extant population to compare to the ancient population distributions. The resulting map shows that the 1978 population is more dispersed than the ancient population. However, this dispersal reflects the patterns in the outlying, “rural” areas of the height of the Copan Dynasty (A.D. 700-A.D. 850) and the later years of dispersal after the political collapse (A.D. 850-A.D. 1150). The densest areas are still
  • 37. 37 found in the low-lying regions of higher soil fertility while higher elevations demonstrate decreased population density like the density found in higher elevations of the ancient population. Figure 10. Distribution of 1978 population. The mean center and standard distance on the 1978 population (Figure 11) generalize these modern distribution patterns. Since there is only one time frame to work
  • 38. 38 with for the modern data, these spatial tests were placed together in the same map. The mean center for the population for 1978 is located in the center of the study area indicating how more evenly dispersed and less skewed in any direction than the population was in earlier times. The standard distance covers most of the area, showing the large distribution of settlements in 1978. Figure 11. Mean center and standard distance of 1978 population.
  • 39. 39 This distribution makes sense given the absence of a centralized political force. With land held within the hands of a few landholders but worked by peasant farm laborers. In this scenario the land has not (or yet) to be exhausted beyond its productivity level. A comparison of average slope between the ancient and modern populations provides the values of 8° and 11°, respectively. As is evident in this comparison, both the modern and ancient populations accessed higher slopes to support higher populations. Figures 12, shows the distribution of the modern population across aspect. Figure 12. Distribution of all surveyed sites across aspect
  • 40. 40 Aspect shows a similar preference among the modern population as the ancient Mayans for the south-facing slopes. A comparison of the ancient and modern averages gives the values of 183° and 174°, respectively. This demonstrates that aspect preference might be more of an ecological decision for cultivation that works in that physical environment rather than a social decision that changes with inhabitants. Additionally, aspect preference does not change with population increase over time for the ancient Maya. Therefore, it is not affected by exploitation pressures. South-facing slopes may add to the success of the harvest or the production of labor from sun angles or may have to do with the geologic structure of the terrain.
  • 41. 41 DISCUSSION Ancient Maya There are sociopolitical data presented in the archaeological record that may account for the observed population/migration trends in the Copan Valley. A new political structure came into the area around A.D. 426, and this may be demonstrated in the population nucleation within the pocket and subsequent population increase. Because the beginning of the time series shows a highly dense center followed by an expansion that was not present before A.D. 426, it is safe to assume that there existed a centripetal force acting on these patterns. Therefore, it would follow that when this force ceased to act, the patterns would shift into a centrifugal form demonstrated later in the time series. This suggests that there was a political collapse and not a large-scale population collapse as there are still inhabitants as the pattern shifts. The presence of post-polity inhabitants is demonstrated through the use of ceramic, radiocarbon, and obsidian hydration dating (Webster, Freter, & Storey, 2004). Environmentally, the ancient population data might show how an ecosystem can be exhausted by the decision making process of a sociopolitical structure. As population increased in the fertile Copan Pocket, there was a need to move upwards in topography and thus to steeper slopes to exploit the environment further to support the growing population, but there were limited areas available that had the overlap of slope, aspect, and nearness to water preferred by the Maya for their settlements. Studies abound of the effects of land clearing on higher slopes and the subsequent erosion rates. Anselmetti,
  • 42. 42 Hodel, Ariztegui, Brenner, and Rosenmeier (2007) utilized settlement core data to quantify soil erosion rates of the ancient Maya from their land use decisions to clear forest for agriculture. Kammerbauer and Ardon (1999) conducted a similar study in La Lima, Honduras, on the effects of slope on agricultural productivity. In that work, the authors looked at the dynamics of sociopolitical conditions and land use decisions through three time periods: 1955, 1975, and 1995. They demonstrated how augmented economic pressure can result in a need to utilize land on higher slopes, putting the natural balance of the whole ecosystem at jeopardy (Kammerbauer & Ardon, 1999). Wingard’s (1996) erosion model also demonstrated this human-environment dynamic. In the case of Copan, the data demonstrate how population pressure induced agricultural productivity into higher elevations as well. As a result, the resource base of the population exerted a pressure that probably contributed to a centralized collapse. The patterns in the data show the results of this collapse as the center de-nucleates and the population spreads back out onto the landscape, dissipating through time, until about A.D. 1300. After this, the landscape is able to regenerate. The Spanish arrive later and re-population occurs. These ancient data, compared to modern settlement data, demonstrate how the population patterns change with the absence of a local, centralized force operating on it.
  • 43. 43 Contemporary Chorti There are other factors operating on contemporary patterns beyond the power structure of land availability and allocation on a localized scale. Unlike the ancient Maya, the modern population has a connection to outside market forces. Land ownership is in the hands of the few but worked by farm laborers. Land use is governed by those few in power and their connections to the larger international markets and the national government. In 1978, local communities had access to imports and contributed labor to the exports of the country. The case of flue-cured tobacco is an excellent example of this, as the Copan community connected itself to the transnational BAT (British-American Tobacco) Corporation and accepted its investment and technologies and their effects on land use and population structures. New farming techniques aid in augmenting land productivity with the introduction of fertilizers and pesticides but can also increase degradation and pollution (Loker, 2004). This globalized atmosphere was absent amongst the populations of the ancient Maya. Both the ancient and modern systems demonstrate how different social molds can operate on similar environments and still have similar results in land degradation and exhaustion. Also, recall Erickson’s (2000) view on how an environment does not “reset” to a pristine state but is a cumulative result of its history. Therefore, the modern context and its level of resilience is a product of the ancient population’s relationship with the same geographic area. Scale is important here as well because it denotes what may be acting on these migration patterns based on land availability. The ancient Maya
  • 44. 44 distribution was likely a local issue of population increase and expansion and over- exploitation of the resource base. They networked with other Mesoamerican polities with trade of shells and jade and some migrations, for example, but not at a level of economic significance (Webster et al., 2000). The modern distribution, on the other hand, is a dynamic interplay between local population increases (like the Ancient Maya) and international factors caused by external market demands (Kok, 2004).
  • 45. 45 CONCLUSION Comparative studies such as this are important because they allow present humans to learn from the mistakes and contributions of populations of the past and even the present to the betterment of future decisions on land use (Chase et al., 2014). Obviously, this is important because land is a resource that contributes to human livelihood and species longevity. Much of what environmental studies has focused on in the recent past has been sustainability, which seeks to have humans live within a landscape carrying capacity. However, recent publications have stressed the importance of resilience (Green et al., 2014). Resilience is a system’s ability to endure the shock from disturbances, such as human activity, weather, and the introduction of new species and still retain its basic ecological structure. This view is different because it does not see the land as a resource in absolute terms where humans need to live within a given, human-centered, quantitative means. It sees the evolutionary functions of a system and how humans operate within the dynamics of that system and as a part of it (Walker and Salt, 2006). It is not that sustainability is no longer a goal but that it is obtained through resilience. In can be argued, based on the data presented and analyzed in this thesis, that the ancient Maya occupation in the Copan Valley is an example of a failure to be sustainable or resilient, hence, the population boom and bust. The resilience of the entire system was affected as more land was cleared. Micro-environmental moisture and heat radiation/absorption cycles were altered as vegetation decreased, contributing to localized drought conditions. As steeper slopes were exploited, erosion would have increased with
  • 46. 46 the loss of vegetation and that also decreased the arability of the land. Critical soil- nutrient thresholds were surpassed for the sake of the increasing population. This is shown in the data as steeper slopes were exploited increasingly through time as population increased. Contemporary conditions still allow for a population to exist on the landscape and this is evident by the presence of the current population in the Copan Valley. Therefore, the present ecological environment within the current sociopolitical context does not appear completely unsustainable. However, given current ecological conditions, there is room for argument that the system is not resilient. Two examples demonstrate this point. Using the definition of resilience by Walker and Salt (2006), two examples can be employed to show the devastating effects of a disturbance on a non-resilient system. The effects of the rise and fall of the tobacco industry in the Copan Valley from the 1950s- 1990s, coupled with the effects of Hurricane Mitch in 1998, have tested this system’s ability to bounce back from a shock. To the farm laborers at the base of the tobacco market, abandonment of the crop meant a loss of jobs and displacement. The land once utilized for the tobacco industry was turned over to pasture land. Not only was the tobacco market not replaced with another booming export, but the land was not left to regenerate nutrients in its untouched, forested state and many farmers were without milpa lands. Loker (2005) posits that this may have contributed to the need for the Chorti to demand more land rights from the Honduran government. This escalated into a marching hunger strike (Chenier et al., 1999). The tobacco industry is one instance of many that
  • 47. 47 allows the laboring population to distrust the security of its economic reliance on exports (Boyer and Pell, 1999). In October of 1998, Hurricane Mitch hit the southern coast of Honduras and devastated Tegucigalpa. Extensive mudslides ensued on the higher elevations while flooding occurred on the bottomlands. An estimated 150,000 inhabitants were displaced, 10,000 people lost their homes, and 100,000 people were left unemployed. In El Corpus and Concepcion de Maria, farmers were afraid to replant their ruined harvests because rockslides still threatened the inhabitants after the initial destructive mudslides. Chiquita Brands did nothing to help its stranded workers when they were flooded onto hilltops and laid off 7,500 of them for the interruption in production (Boyer & Pell, 1999). Socially, the inhabitants suffered from a lack in re-structuring support from the export companies they relied on for employment or from the government which was more concerned with keeping export networks open. This is demonstrated by the fact that the priority was to re-open main artery routes instead of establishing emergency committees for neighborhoods threatened with looting (Boyer & Pell, 1999). Ecologically, mudslides were a major issue due to the cleared mountain regions. There was not enough vegetation (except in milpa-planted areas) to prevent soil/debris movement on higher elevations during the storm, hence, an increase in devastation, injury/death, and displacement (Boyer and Pell, 1999). The population of 1978 was (and still could be) construed as an example of the inability of the current sociopolitical structure to create a resilient ecological system as was demonstrated in the outcome of the stress placed on it two decades later in the
  • 48. 48 examples above. Ecologically, it is still “sustaining” a current population. However, if examples of population and land use are to be applicably productive, truly understanding them is vital. This means understanding the dynamics of the systems involved not just the resources they possess and how humans can obtain the resources with the least impact. Walker and Salt state (p.90-91, 2006), The lesson is that you cannot understand or successfully manage a system--any system, but especially a social-ecological system--by focusing on only one scale. So often people concentrate solely on the scale of direct interest to them (their farm, their catchment, their company, or their country), but the structure and the dynamics at that scale, and how the system can and will respond at that scale, strongly depends on the states and dynamics of the system at the scales above and below. The ancient Maya seem to have understood this concept. Before the rise of the new polity around A.D. 426, they practiced slash and burn agriculture with a fallow rate conducive to the natural dynamics of the tropical forest system. However, under a new sociopolitical structure, the dynamics of that social-ecological relationship changed. In a modern perspective like the 1978 context, population was more encroaching and globalized. This scenario requires an increase in understanding of this interdependent web of complex sociopolitical systems but they are actually less complex than the natural ecosystems they rely on. It is this complexity that has allowed natural systems to evolve the stamina to handle disturbance.
  • 49. 49 Human social structures and institutions should seek to mimic earth’s natural systems: their complexity, diversity, redundancies, interdependencies (Green et al., 2014). These systems, through the process of trial and error over time, have self- maximized into complex adaptive systems for the best resilience on the planet. Humans are a part of these systems and are connected to them. However, if humans really wish to strive to adapt and thrive as a species, then they need to focus on learning from their mistakes. This landscape GIS study of the Copan Valley demonstrates how it is possible to better understand these human- ecological dynamics in order to more accurately access the environmental resiliency of previous, current, and future land use decisions.
  • 50. 50 BIBLIOGRAPHY Anselmetti, F. S., Hodel, D. A., Ariztegui, D., Brenner, M., & Rosenmeier, M. F. (2007). Quantification of soil erosion rates related to ancient Maya deforestation. Geology, 35(10), 915-918. Boyer, J. & Pell, A. (1999). Mitch in Honduras: A disaster waiting to happen. NACLA, xxxiii(2), 36-43. Chase, A. F., Lucero, L. J., Scarborough, V. L., Chase, D. Z., Cobos, R., Dunning, N. P., … Liendo, R. (2014). Tropical landscapes and the ancient Maya: Diversity in time and space. Archaeological papers of the American Anthropological Association, 24, 11-29. Chenier, J., Sherwood, S., & Tahnee, R. (1999). Copan, Honduras: Collaboration for identity,equity, and sustainability. Buckles, D. (Ed.), Cultivating peace: Conflict and collaboration in natural resource management (221-235). Ottowa, Canada: International Development Research Center. Culbert, P. (1973). The classic Maya collapse. Albuquerque, New Mexico: New Mexico Press. Erickson, C. L. (2000). The Lake Titicaca basin: A pre-Columbian built landscape. Lentz, D.(Ed.). Imperfect balance: Landscape transformations in the pre-Columbian Americas, 311-356. New York: Columbia University Press. Fash, W. (1983). Maya state formation: A case study and its implications. (Doctoral dissertation). Harvard University. Freter, A. (1988). The classic Maya collapse at Copan, Honduras: A regional settlement
  • 51. 51 perspective. (Doctoral dissertation). The Pennsylvania State University. Freter, A. (1993). Obsidian hydration dating: Its past, present, and future application in Mesoamerica. Ancient Mesoamerica, 4, 285-303. Green, O. O., Garmerstani, A. S., Hopton, M. E., & Heberling, M. T. (2014). A multiscalar examination of law for sustainable ecosystems. Sustainability, 6, 3534-3551. Kammerbauer, J. & Ardon, C. (1999). Land use dynamics and land use change pattern in a typical watershed in the hillside region of central Honduras. Agriculture, ecosystems, and environment, 75, 93-100. Kok, K. (2004). The role of population in understanding Honduran land use changes. Journal of environmental management, 72, 73-89. Leventhal, R. (1979). Settlement patterns at Copan, Honduras. (Doctoral dissertation). Harvard University. Longyear, J (1952). Copan ceramics: A study of the southeastern Maya pottery. Washington D.C.: Carnegie Institute of Washington. Loker, W. M. (2005). The rise and fall of flue-cured tobacco in the Copan Valley and its environmental and social consequences. Human Ecology, 33(3), 299-327. Moran, E. F. (2000). Human adaptability: An introduction to ecological anthropology (2nd Ed.). Boulder, CO: Westview Press. Paine, R. & Freter, A. (1996). Environmental degradation and the Classic Maya collapse at Copan, Honduras (A.D. 600-1250): Evidence of studies of household survival. Ancient Mesoamerica, 7, 37-47.
  • 52. 52 Paine, R., Freter, A., & Webster, D. (1996). A mathematical projection of population growth in The Copan Valley, Honduras, A.D. 400-800. Latin America Antiquity 7(1), 51- 60. Shaw, J. M. (2003). Climate change and deforestation: Implications for the Maya collapse. Ancient Mesoamerica, 14, 157-167. Smith, D. M. (1975). Patterns in human geography. New York: Crane Russak & Co. Tucker, C. M. (2008). Changing forests: Collective action, common property, and coffee in Honduras. Springer. Unwin, D. (1981). Introductory spatial analysis. New York, NY: Methuen & Co. Walker B. & Salt, D. (2006). Resilience thinking: Sustaining ecosystems and people in changing world. Washington DC: Island Press. Webster, D., Freter, A., & Gonlin, N. (2000). Copan: The rise and fall of an ancient Maya kingdom. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth Group. Webster, D., Freter, A., & Storey, R. (2004). Dating Copan culture-history: Implications for the terminal classic and the collapse. Demarest, A. A. (Ed.). The terminal classic in the Maya lowlands: Collapse, transition, and transformation (231-259). Boulder, CO: University Press of Colorado.
  • 53. 53 APPENDIX: RAW DATA FOR TIME SERIES SITE # SITE_ Class A.D. 250- 400 A.D. 400- 550 A.D. 550- 700 A.D. 700- 850 A,D. 850- 1000 A.D. 1000- 1150 A.D. 1150- 1300 Elev in masl Slo in ° As p in ° 6A_1 _2 AG 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 741 2 26 6A_3 _4 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 743 6 88 6A_4 _1 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 734 4 290 6A_1 1_1 3 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 720 1 230 6A_1 9_2 SM 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 729 2 263 6B_1 _8 AG 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 751 9 35 6B_4 _5 AG 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 880 16 297 99A_ 14_1 NM 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 660 7 42 99A_ 18_2 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 720 2 275 99A_ 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 758 8 139
  • 54. 54 25_2 99A_ 26_3 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 760 15 126 99A_ 26_5 SM 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 760 8 117 99A_ 29_1 SM 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 620 10 315 99A_ 29_2 SM 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 620 10 315 99A_ 29_4 NM 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 660 5 164 99A_ 30_1 SM 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 680 13 236 99A_ 30_2 SM 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 720 9 230 99A_ 31_1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 700 11 225 99A_ 31_2 SM 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 700 11 234 99A_ 31_3 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 680 10 211 99A_ 31_4 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 680 12 225 99A_ SM 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 640 10 239
  • 55. 55 31_6 99A_ 31_7 SM 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 680 15 225 99A_ 32_1 NM 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 700 7 223 99A_ 32_3 NM 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 705 12 221 99A_ 32_4 NM 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 740 13 157 99A_ 33_2 SM 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 680 12 8 99A_ 34_2 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 740 10 31 99A_ 34_3 SM 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 740 10 290 99A_ 35_1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 740 10 305 99A_ 35_3 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 800 13 352 99A_ 36_1 NM 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 740 21 294 99A_ 36_2 SM 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 660 9 11 99B_ 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 701 3 317
  • 56. 56 1_1 99B_ 5_1 SM 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 721 0 -1 99B_ 9_1 NM 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 720 7 90 99B_ 12_2 NM 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 780 17 127 99B_ 15_1 SM 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 720 9 185 99B_ 17_1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 900 13 326 99B_ 20_1 NM 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 780 7 90 99B_ 20_3 NM 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 860 17 37 CP_1 2G_6 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 600 8 328 CP_9 H_3 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 645 9 214 CP_9 G_5 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 620 7 180 CP_1 1J_1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 600 0 225 LGW 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 776 0 270
  • 57. 57 _2 LGW _9 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 760 11 90 CP_1 4D_ M7 SM 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 608 3 315 CP_1 4D_ M8 SM 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 608 3 315 11B_ 2_1 AG 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 980 24 106 11C_ 3_1 AG 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 700 10 315 11D_ 8_1 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 660 8 42 11D_ 8_2 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 660 5 301 11D_ 8_4 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 660 2 83 11D_ 9_1 AG 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 693 7 348 11D_ 11_2 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 700 6 286 11D_ 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 680 10 211
  • 58. 58 11_3 18A_ 1_2 AG 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 700 16 243 18A_ 2_3 SM 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 780 13 157 18A_ 2_4 NM 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 800 4 92 18A_ 7_1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 740 3 180 18B_ 1_3 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 800 7 177 34C_ 12_4 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 640 15 144 34C_ 14_1 NM 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 640 8 118 34C_ 23_1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 840 13 304 34D_ 2_1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 780 9 165 34D_ 2_2 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 780 10 151 18B_ 5_5 AG 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 860 18 191 18C_ AG 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 693 10 161
  • 59. 59 1_1 18C_ 4_2 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 678 2 159 18C_ 5_2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 680 8 174 18C_ 5_3 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 660 8 310 18D_ 3_3 AG 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 660 0 325 18D_ 6_1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 640 5 228 25A_ 3_1 AG 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 620 4 90 32D_ 3_2 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 800 8 153 32D_ 19_1 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 800 11 180 32D_ 22_1 SM 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 800 10 225 32D_ 25_1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 760 6 329 32D_ 33_1 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 820 10 301 38B_ 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 940 16 264
  • 60. 60 3_2 38B_ 3_4 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 980 26 259 34A_ 12_1 SM 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 780 20 75 34A_ 12_2 SM 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 780 20 75 34A_ 22_1 NM 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 780 3 339 34A_ 27_1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 760 6 68 34B_ 3_1 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 760 10 225 34C_ 3_3 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 660 16 84 34C_ 4_2 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 640 4 279 34C_ 11_2 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 620 7 270 28C_ 16_1 SM 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 880 2 63 28C_ 26_1 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 960 6 288 30B_ 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 860 9 202
  • 61. 61 12_1 30B_ 26_1 NM 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 800 9 268 30B_ 29_1 2 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 820 3 144 30C_ 6_1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 860 14 294 30C_ 26_1 NM 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1040 26 310 32B_ 3_1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1060 19 275 32B_ 12_2 NM 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 860 15 325 32C_ 1_1 NM 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 840 21 270 6C_2 _2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 720 11 166 6C_8 _1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 725 1 301 6C_8 _3 AG 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 726 1 303 6D_7 _1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 700 0 225 6D_7 AG 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 703 2 32
  • 62. 62 _2 6D_1 0_1 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 700 8 296 6D_2 1_1 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 700 0 93 6D_2 1_2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 735 7 198 25A_ 4_2 SM 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 620 9 281 25A_ 4_5 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 580 12 262 25B_ 1_5 NM 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 609 12 194 25B_ 1_9 SM 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 600 11 169 25B_ 2_1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 580 3 220 25B_ 2_2 AG 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 600 11 136 25C_ 2_1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 660 8 135 25C- 3_3 SM 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 618 6 287 25D_ NM 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 604 7 354
  • 63. 63 2_1 99A_ 3_1 SM 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 780 13 113 99A_ 6_1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 690 8 150 99A_ 7_1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 660 10 301 99A_ 10_1 NM 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 660 4 65 99A_ 11_1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 693 10 288 7A_1 _1 SM 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 720 3 134 7A_7 _1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 800 12 172 7A_9 _1 AG 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 740 1 168 7D_3 _1 AG 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 714 3 45 7D_5 _1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 713 5 27 7D_6 _1 AG 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 727 8 276 7D_6 AG 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 700 6 224
  • 64. 64 _2 9A- 1_1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 800 15 135 9A_4 _2 AG 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 720 3 184 9A_4 _4 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 734 5 238 9B_1 _5 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 737 4 262 9B_2 _1 AG 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 725 0 137 9B_4 _7 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 740 8 243 9D_2 _1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 700 7 11 9D_2 _2 AG 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 700 1 268 9D_2 _3 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 704 3 171 9D_2 _5 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 712 2 260 9D_2 _6 AG 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 700 1 268 9D_6 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 724 1 261
  • 65. 65 _1 9D_6 _3 SM 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 700 3 348 CP_1 4D_ M9 SM 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 611 3 147 CP_1 3F_3 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 600 8 234 CP_1 3F_6 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 600 4 45 CP_1 4F_1 3 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 600 3 337 CP_9 L_11 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 620 13 124 CP_9 I_1 4 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 632 0 180 CP_7 L_M 28 SM 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 720 4 185 CP_7 K_4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700 10 237 CP_1 1M_8 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 640 10 329 CP_9 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 607 2 84
  • 66. 66 N_8 CP_9 M_10 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 606 4 244 CP_1 0E_2 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 651 3 304 CP_1 2H_3 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 600 7 0 CP_1 2H_4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 600 12 218 CP_9 M_22 3 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 604 0 211 CP_9 M_24 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 606 0 235 CP_7 N_19 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 640 10 121 CP_8 N_11 4 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 608 4 132 CP_5 N_M 25 SM 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 680 9 101 CP_5 N_7 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 680 8 117 CP_6 N_1 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 700 14 90
  • 67. 67 CP_4 N_5 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 680 11 198 CP_1 1O_1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 680 11 288 CP_1 1O_2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 680 11 288 CP_7 O_6 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 600 10 288 CP_3 O_7 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 718 9 178 CP_5 O_12 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 680 7 180