State: Florida Electoral Votes: 29 Issues: “Florida has a large, diverse and transient population..” (Farrington) Florida contains a large Hispanic population which normally votes Democratic. The state of Florida is also home to a lot of retirees which are usually split between Democrats and Republicans. The retirees are going to focus on pensions, healthcare and state funded aid, while Hispanics want to focus on healthcare and immigration laws. Key Groups: Retirees and non-Hispanic Whites Voting History: (270towin.com) 2012- Democratic 2008- Democratic 2004- Republican 2000- Republican 1996- Democratic Demographic Breakdown: White- 75% African American- 16% Hispanic- 6.5% “Based on the 2010 Census, Hispanics represent about 22.5% of Florida’s population.” (edr.state.fl.us) In order to win the state of Florida I would put a lot of focus into immigration laws and helping the minorities get out of poverty. “Florida’s minority percentage of the population is 42.1%.” (edr.state.fl.us) I would put a lot of focus on Social Security and Healthcare (Obamacare) because I know money and healthcare are two of the biggest concerns for retirees. “17.6% of Florida’s population is aged 65 and over.” (infoplease.com) 17.6% is a lot of people to have with the same mind set and the same way of thinking, so you need to appease them. State: Virginia Electoral Votes: 13 Issues: The main issue that Virginia faces is unemployment. Virginia’s unemployment rate currently sits at 4.8%. (bls.gov) One of the major employers for the state of Virginia is the defense industry, which makes federal money very important to the state’s economic performance. (Hartfield) Key Groups: Minority groups and Young College Graduates Voting History 2012- Democratic 2008- Democratic 2004- Republican 2000- Republican 1996- Democratic Demographic Breakdown: White- 71.3% Black- 19.8% Asian- 5.8% Hispanic- 8.2% In order to win the state of Virginia I would have to focus on creating jobs and getting federal funding to support defense jobs. I would also focus on higher education and student loan debt due to the large population of young college graduates. “A swing state in American Politics is one that has a high probability of tipping the balance presidential elections in favor of one candidate.” (Murse) Swing states are states in which the voters will alternatively switch between supporting Democrats and Republicans during Presidential elections. Swing States are important during Presidential elections because the political parties have no idea which way the states vote is going to “swing.” LOL “There were more blue states than red states in the U.S. in 2012 by a margin of 20 to 12. (Saad) I think that the swing states will be the closest races during the next presidential election. The only thing that the candidates can do in order to win these states over is focus on the Demographics and appease to their needs. I think that candidates will focus more strongly on swing states .

1. State: Florida
Electoral Votes: 29
Issues: “Florida has a large, diverse and transient population..”
(Farrington) Florida contains a large Hispanic population which
normally votes Democratic. The state of Florida is also home to
a lot of retirees which are usually split between Democrats and
Republicans. The retirees are going to focus on pensions,
healthcare and state funded aid, while Hispanics want to focus
on healthcare and immigration laws.
Key Groups: Retirees and non-Hispanic Whites
Voting History: (270towin.com)
2012- Democratic
2008- Democratic
2004- Republican
2000- Republican
1996- Democratic
Demographic Breakdown:
White- 75%
African American- 16%
Hispanic- 6.5%
“Based on the 2010 Census, Hispanics represent about 22.5% of
Florida’s population.” (edr.state.fl.us)
In order to win the state of Florida I would put a lot of focus
into immigration laws and helping the minorities get out of
poverty. “Florida’s minority percentage of the population is
42.1%.” (edr.state.fl.us) I would put a lot of focus on Social
Security and Healthcare (Obamacare) because I know money
and healthcare are two of the biggest concerns for retirees.
“17.6% of Florida’s population is aged 65 and over.”
(infoplease.com) 17.6% is a lot of people to have with the same

2. mind set and the same way of thinking, so you need to appease
them.
State: Virginia
Electoral Votes: 13
Issues: The main issue that Virginia faces is unemployment.
Virginia’s unemployment rate currently sits at 4.8%. (bls.gov)
One of the major employers for the state of Virginia is the
defense industry, which makes federal money very important to
the state’s economic performance. (Hartfield)
Key Groups: Minority groups and Young College Graduates
Voting History
2012- Democratic
2008- Democratic
2004- Republican
2000- Republican
1996- Democratic
Demographic Breakdown:
White- 71.3%
Black- 19.8%
Asian- 5.8%
Hispanic- 8.2%
In order to win the state of Virginia I would have to focus on
creating jobs and getting federal funding to support defense
jobs. I would also focus on higher education and student loan
debt due to the large population of young college graduates.
“A swing state in American Politics is one that has a high
probability of tipping the balance presidential elections in favor
of one candidate.” (Murse) Swing states are states in which the
voters will alternatively switch between supporting Democrats
and Republicans during Presidential elections. Swing States are
important during Presidential elections because the political

3. parties have no idea which way the states vote is going to
“swing.” LOL “There were more blue states than red states in
the U.S. in 2012 by a margin of 20 to 12. (Saad) I think that the
swing states will be the closest races during the next
presidential election. The only thing that the candidates can do
in order to win these states over is focus on the Demographics
and appease to their needs. I think that candidates will focus
more strongly on swing states from start to finish of the
campaigning process in order to lock in the voters. The
Primaries and caucuses will be held throughout 2016. I think
that some states vote a certain way or same way all the time due
to the fact that they are used to how their state is run. If that
particular state focuses on Obamacare and Democratic
characteristics and the people grow up in that environment they
are going to continue vote that way.
Farrington, Brenda. Florida’s Population makes It a Swing
State. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/12/population-
florida-swing-state-election_n_1962075.html
www.270towin.com. Florida.
http://www.270towin.com/states/Florida
The Florida Legislature. Florida: Demographics.
http://edr.state.fl.us/Content/presentations/population-
demographics/DemographicOverview_4-20-11.pdf
Infoplease.com. Florida Demographics.
http://www.infoplease.com/us/census/data/florida/demographic.
html
Murse, Tom. What is a Swing State?
http://uspolitics.about.com/od/glossary/a/What-Is-A-Swing-
State.htm
BLS.Gov. Virginia Unemployment Rate.
http://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.va.htm
Hartfield, Elizabeth. Battleground: Will Virginia Stay with
Obama? http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/virginia-swing-
voters/story?id=17589979
Saad, Lydia. In the U.S. Blue States Outnumber Red States, 20

4. to 12. http://www.gallup.com/poll/160175/blue-states-
outnumber-red-states.aspx
StateElectoral Votes
Nevada4
New Hampshire4
Iowa7
Colorado 8
Wisconsin11
Virginia13
North Carolina14
Ohio21
Florida25
The fact is, for a given time and place, certain states are
inclined to vote a certain way and no amount of campaign
appearances will sway these states nor will additional campaign
spending change that fact. This works for us in states that favor
us, and against us in states that favor our opponent. This is not
to say that we abandon those states, as they deserve at least a
modicum of attention lest they believe that once elected our
candidate does not represent them. Rather, our efforts will
focus on states that are in play, regardless of whether it is due
to indifferent voters, split allegiances, or current events that
affect their anticipated voting behavior.
For the 2012 presidential election, we are able to focus the
majority of our attention on just nine states that control 110
electoral votes. This represents over 20 percent of the total
votes available but more importantly it represents nearly 41
percent of the votes necessary to secure victory. (Lincoln Park
Strategies 2013)
State

5. 2012 Electoral Votes
Importance: Percent of total vote
Popular Voting History in Presidential Elections
R% / D%
R% / D%
R% / D%
R% / D%
R% / D%
R% / D%
2000 (R)
1996 (D)
1992 (D)
1988 (R)
1984 (R)
1980 (R)
Colorado
9
Minor: 3.3%
50.8 / 42.4
45.8 / 44.4
35.9 / 40.1
53.1 / 45.3
63.4 / 35.1
55.1 / 31.1
Florida
29
Major: 10.7%
48.9 / 48.8
42.3 / 48.0
40.9 / 39.0

6. 60.9 / 38.5
65.3 / 34.7
55.5 / 38.5
Iowa
6
Minor: 2.2%
48.2 / 48.5
39.9 / 50.3
37.3 / 43.3
44.5 / 54.7
53.3 / 45.9
51.3 / 38.6
Nevada
6
Minor: 2.2%
49.5 / 46.0
42.9 / 43.9
34.7 / 37.4
58.9 / 37.9
65.9 / 32.0
62.5 / 26.9
New Hampshire
4
Minor: 1.5%
48.1 / 46.8
39.4 / 49.3
37.6 / 38.9
62.5 / 36.3
68.7 / 31.0
57.7 / 28.4
North Carolina
15
Major: 5.6%
56.0 / 43.2
48.7 / 44.0
43.4 / 42.7

7. 58.0 / 41.7
61.9 / 37.9
49.3 / 47.2
Ohio
18
Major: 6.7%
50.0 / 46.5
41.0 / 47.4
38.4 / 40.2
55.0 / 44.2
58.9 / 40.1
51.5 / 40.9
Virginia
13
Major: 4.8%
52.5 / 44.4
47.1 / 45.2
45.0 / 40.6
59.7 / 39.2
62.3 / 37.1
53.0 / 40.3
Wisconsin
10
Major: 3.7%
47.6 / 47.8
38.5 / 48.8
36.8 / 41.1
51.4 / 47.8
(Leip 2012)
54.2 / 45.0
47.9 / 43.2
To appreciate the power of these nine swing states, assume a
virtual dead heat after tallying the electoral votes from the other
41 states and the District of Columbia instead of the 45-vote
margin 1 candidate actually held over the other in 2012.

8. (270toWin 2012) The first candidate to garner 56 electoral
votes from the above states, five of whom are in the Eastern
Time zone, can declare victory. The significance of the
“minor” states listed above increases exponentially if the
“major” states split between the two candidates, for example if
the opposition candidate receives 42 electoral votes from
Florida and Virginia and our candidate receives the remaining
“major” states for 43 electoral votes, everything would depend
on the “minor” states. Taking the analysis a step further, if
New Hampshire and Nevada go for the opposition candidate and
Colorado goes for our candidate; Iowa would cast the deciding
votes for president. In truth, there are no “minor” states in an
election where total ballots cast is a foregone conclusion and
the goal is to be the only one to exceed 269 votes.
Demographic
Florida
Virginia
Male
48.9%
49.1%
Female
51.1%
50.9%
White
76.5%
69.6%
Black
15.9%
19.5%
Asian
2.5%
5.5%
American Indian or Alaska Native
0.3%
0.3%
Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander

9. 0.1%
0.1%
Two or more
2.6%
2.7%
Hispanic (any race)
22.5%
7.9%
Virginia brings 13 electoral votes to the table and Florida brings
29, and while Virginia has voted Republican in all six of the
elections cited above, Florida went for the Democrat candidate
in 1996. The Republican candidate lost Florida by 236,148
votes and Virginia by 234,527 votes in 2008. The southeastern
tip of Florida, consisting of Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-
Dade counties, delivered Florida into the Democratic camp with
a delta of 529,426 votes in favor of the Democratic candidate.
Most of the loss of the Commonwealth of Virginia was
delivered by a virtual suburb of Washington, D.C. consisting of
Loudoun, Fairfax, and Prince William counties along with the
City of Alexandria, which cumulatively provided 178,003 more
votes for the Democratic candidate than for the Republican and
without which the final count would have been 1,430,401 (D)
and 1,373,878 (R). (Leip 2012)
Based on the results of Florida and Virginia, the urban voter
appears to be steering the elections for the rest of the nation.
Looking at just the sex and racial demographics from two of the
nine swing states, it is female voters (by a slim margin) and
White voters that are the dominate electorates. The challenge in
targeting these two groups is that they are far from monolithic
in their voting habits. The distribution of other elements in the
electorate provides an indication of which pool of voters have
the depth from which additional ballots may be found, in this
case the male voter (being nearly equal to the female voter) and
both the Black voter and those of Hispanic ethnicity due to their
significant representation in the electorate. Crunching the
numbers in Florida is much like looking at a national election –

10. certain voters, like certain states, tend to vote in the same
manner and it is the swing voters that decide the election. Non-
white voters will constitute over one-third of the electorate in
2012 and will play a key role in the outcome of the election in
Florida. (Man 2015)
In Virginia, the dominant role of the north will no doubt
determine the outcome of the election, just as it did in 2008.
There is a significant federal government presence in the
aforementioned city and counties of northern Virginia, with the
possible conclusion that these areas are more like Washington,
D.C. and less like the rest of Virginia. (Schwartz 2012)
Ultimately, it is who the electorate trusts to lead the nation and,
if the incumbent is running for reelection, what that incumbent
politician’s role in current problems may have been. In 2012,
the incumbent had been in office for four years but was
somehow able to fault the previous administration for current
economic problems. (Newport 2012) Sixteen days before the
2012 election, Gallup declared the “Economy is the Dominant
Issue…” (Saad 2012)
The winning strategy must stress the current administration’s
responsibility for the struggling economic recovery and
targeting the impact of said recovery on each identifiable
demographic in order to put the issue in terms individual voters
can understand without having a degree in economics. Speaking
directly to those most negatively affected by unemployment and
clearly articulating a means to address the underlying causal
factors without fear of offending those responsible is critical to
not incurring a repeat of the previous election.
For the record, the official unemployment rate (known as U-3)
was at 7.8 percent going into the election. Unknown to most
voters was the real unemployment rate (known as U-6, or more
appropriately “Total Unemployed) which was at 14.4 percent.
(U.S. Department of Labor 2015)
Bibliography

11. 270toWin. 2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map. 2012.
http://www.270towin.com/2012_Election/interactive_map
(accessed December 4, 2015).
Census Bureau. Virginia Quick Links: Demographic and
Housing Estimates. 2012.
http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/produc
tview.xhtml?src=bkmk (accessed December 4, 2015).
Cillizza, Chris. The Washington Post - Politics: The 9 swing
states of 2012. April 16, 2012.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/the-9-
swing-states-of-2012/2012/04/16/gIQABuXaLT_blog.html
(accessed December 2, 2015).
Kimberling, William C. "Federal Election Commission." The
Electoral College. May 1992.
http://www.fec.gov/pdf/eleccoll.pdf (accessed December 2,
2015).
Leip, Dave. Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. 2012.
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ (accessed December 3,
2015).
Lincoln Park Strategies. "Lincoln Park Strategies." Predictable
Presidential Results Post-election. January 25, 2013.
http://www.lpstrategies.com/2012/11/predictable-presidential-
results-post-election/ (accessed December 2, 2015).
Man, Anthony. Numbers add up to 2016 presidential
battleground in Florida. January 18, 2015. http://www.sun-
sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-presidential-election-florida-2016-
20150116-story.html (accessed December 4, 2015).
National Archives. Historical Election Results. n.d.
http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-
college/votes/votes_by_state.html (accessed December 3, 2015).
—. What is the Electoral College? n.d.
http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-
college/about.html (accessed December 2, 2015).
Newport, Frank. Americans Still Blame Bush More Than Obama
for Bad Economy. June 14, 2012.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/155177/americans-blame-bush-

12. obama-bad-economy.aspx (accessed December 4, 2015).
Politico. 2012 Swing States. July 2, 2013.
http://www.politico.com/2012-election/swing-state/ (accessed
December 2, 2015).
Saad, Lydia. Economy Is Dominant Issue for Americans as
Election Nears. October 22, 2012.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/158267/economy-dominant-issue-
americans-election-nears.aspx (accessed December 4, 2015).
Schwartz, John. The New York Times: Election 2012 - Virginia.
2012. http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/states/virginia
(accessed December 4, 2015).
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(CPS). Julyr 8, 2015.
http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab15.htm (accessed
December 4, 2015).
The Oxford Dictionary defines a swing state as “a US state
where the two major political parties have similar levels of
support among voters, viewed as important in determining the
overall result of a presidential election.” This means that the
electoral votes for the states are always available to be taken be
either political party depending on which party campaigns
better and connects more with the people of the state. Swing
States are very important because, although, they may only
contain a few electoral votes, those few votes could mean a win
or lose in an election.
State
Electoral Votes

13. Colorado
9
Florida
29
Iowa
6
Nevada
6
New Hampshire
4
North Carolina
15
Virginia
13
Wisconsin
10
Ohio
18
Nevada
Voting History
2012: 52.4% D, 45.7% R
2008: 55.1% D, 42.7% R
2004: 48.1% D, 50.7% R
2000: 46.0% D, 49.5% R
1996: 43.9% D, 42.9% R
Issues: One main issue in the 2012 election was immigration.
The Latino population in Nevada grew 81% between 2000 and
2012, and the issue of immigration became a key debate topic
during the 2012 election. Gaming is always a key issue in
Nevada elections. Gaming laws is always a major issue due to
the amount of casinos and and legalized gambling that is
allowed in Nevada. Another major issue in Nevada during the

14. 2012 election was the economy. Nevada had the nations largest
unemployment rate, 12.1%, and it made jobs and the economy
the major issue for Nevada voters. Nevada voters wanted
reassurance that the economy would improve and job
opportunities would become available. Some additional issues
for Nevada voters included gun control, farming, agriculture,
and energy.
Demographic Breakdown: White alone-76.2%, black or
African American alone-9.1%, American Indian and Alaska
Native alone-1.6%, Asian alone-8.3%, Native Hawaiian and
other Pacific Islander alone-0.7%, two or more races-4.0%,
Hispanic or Latino-27.8%
Strategy: In order to take the swing vote in Nevada it is
important that a majority of the campaigning occurs in the
major cities that account for the most votes, Las Vegas and
Reno. Campaigning in these cities is also crucial because they
are the ones most effected by the unemployment rates and
maintain the most interest in gaming laws. It would be
important for the candidate to stress plans to lower the
unemployment rate and make jobs for more citizens out of
work. Additionally, I would stress the importance of assuring
the people of Las Vegas that tourism will increase in the next
few years as the employment rates across the country begin to
rise and more people have more money to travel and go on
vacation. I would than have my candidate travel to the rural
areas of Nevada and hold town halls with the small forming
communities to discuss the importance of Nevada farming and
agriculture to the American economy.
Colorado
Voting History
2012: 51.5% D, 46.1% R
2008: 53.7% D, 44.7% R

15. 2004: 47.0% D, 51.7% R
2000: 42.4% D, 50.8% R
1996: 44.4% D, 45.8% R
Issues: One issue that Colorado addressed heavily in the 2012
campaign was Women's Rights. The women’s vote in Colorado
was of upmost importance and the thoughts on women rights in
Colorado was much ore liberal than conservative, and many of
Colorado residents felt Romney would not be forward thinking
enough to support their views. Another issue was climate
change as Colorado relies heavily on the winter weather that it
receives every year, and warmer temperatures could negatively
effect the state. A major issue on the ballot for Colorado was
the legalization of Marijuana. The vote to legalize Marijuana
could be considered the most waled about issue in the State
during the 2012 election. Additionally, like all other states in
the 2012 election, the economy was an issue for the Colorado
voters.
Demographic Breakdown: White-72%, African American-13%,
Hispanic-10%, Asian-3%, Other-2%.
Strategy: As the vast majority of the votes in Colorado come
from Denver, I would assure that I had many campaign offices
throughout the city and that my candidate listed as often as
possible. I would make sure my candidate discussed the
importance of women’s rights in America, and how he/she
supports women rights. I would have my candidate answer
questions about the legalization of marijuana, but I would not
have him bring up the topic in any speeches. Furthermore, I
would have my candidate visit the many military bases
throughout the state in order to show support for the troops, and
explain the importance of the men and women who volunteer to
serve the country.
http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/us/definition/american_engli

16. sh/swing-state
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/the-9-
swing-states-of-2012/2012/04/16/gIQABuXaLT_blog.html
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/swing-state-tracker
http://www.270towin.com/states/Nevada
http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2012/09/26/16182024
7/romneys-nevada-problems-explained-by-political-scientist-
who-voted-for-him
http://americasvoice.org/research/spotlight-on-nevada-
immigration-latino-voters-and-the-2012-elections/
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/32000.html
http://www.270towin.com/states/Colorado
http://www.denverpost.com/ci_21924287/swing-state-colorado-
holds-its-sway-election
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/02/us/politics/in-colorado-
obama-takes-page-from-surprise-democratic-win.html
http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-
voted/how-groups-voted-2012/
http://www.politico.com/2012-election/swing-state/