What's Next ATL: Top 10 Challenges for Metro Atlanta (2018)
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What’s Next ATL is a multi-dimensional platform for metro Atlanta residents and it leaders to explore the challenges ahead and work together to find innovative solutions. Bring your ideas, perspectives and passion. Join us at whatsnextATL.org. Powered by the Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC).
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What's Next ATL: Top 10 Challenges for Metro Atlanta (2018)
- 1. January 31, 2018 ARC Legislative Breakfast 2 0 1 8
- 2. What’s Next ATL is aligned with the main elements of the Atlanta Region’s Plan, ARC’s long-range blueprint to win the future:
- 3. ARC has identified 10 key issues on which metro Atlanta should focus in order to remain a vibrant, dynamic region with a high quality of life: • Establishing Regional Transit Funding and Governance • Preparing for Autonomous and Connected Vehicles • Accommodating Increasing Freight Traffic • Matching Available Jobs and Qualified Workers • Planning for Increasing Automation in the Workforce • Increasing Access to Housing Affordability and Jobs • Managing Impact of e-Commerce on Retail Space & Traffic • Fostering Communities That Work for All Ages & Abilities • Improving Third-Grade Reading Skills • Maintaining Regional Water Planning and Stewardship
- 4. ARC’s Areas of Focus
- 5. CHALLENGE: Establishing Regional Transit Funding and Governance State Population State Funds for Transit % of Funds from State State Funds Per Capita Florida 20,244,914 $275.5 M 12.59% $13.61 N. Carolina 10,035,186 $68.3 M 8.71% $6.81 Tennessee 6,595,056 $38.6 M 12.33% $5.85 Virginia 8,367,587 $115.1 M 16.57% $13.75 GEORGIA 10,199,398 $14.5 M 1.24% $1.42 Ridership # of Transit Systems State Funds Per Transit Trip 279,270,548 129 $0.99 75,014,104 149 $0.91 32,738,961 49 $1.18 74,420,024 68 $1.55 168,330,253 118 $0.09
- 6. 45th in % of funding from the state 45th in state funds per transit trip 37th in state funds per capita 27th in total state funds for transit Significantly below our most direct economic competitors Significantly below the national average in all categories DESPITE THE 10th HIGHEST RIDERSHIP Georgia ranks low in terms of state participation in transit: CHALLENGE: Establishing Regional Transit Funding and Governance
- 7. Transit in Atlanta Today CHALLENGE: Establishing Regional Transit Funding and Governance
- 8. CHALLENGE: Preparing for Autonomous and Connected Vehicles
- 9. CHALLENGE: Accommodating Increasing Freight Traffic • Metro Atlanta’s total freight volume is projected to grow 76% from 2013 to 2040 • The Port of Savannah moved a record number of freight containers in 2017, many of which traveled to metro Atlanta • Almost 1/3 of the region’s employment depends on reliable freight shipments • By 2040, freight-related employment is expected to grow by more than 400,000 jobs, to 40% of all new employment • GDOT plans truck-only lanes along I-75 north of Macon
- 10. Bachelor's Degree, 50.2%High School or Vocational Training, 31.6% Associate's Degree, 13.3% Graduate or Professional Degree, 4.9% Educational Requirements of Job Postings, Aug. 2016 to 2017 High School or Vocational Training, 56.7% Bachelor's Degree, 23.4% Graduate or Professional Degree, 13.7% Associate's Degree, 7.2% Educational Attainment, Age 25+, 2016 CHALLENGE: Matching Available Jobs and Qualified Workers
- 11. 8,870 9,670 11,520 12,530 13,680 14,650 16,620 16,820 17,180 17,270 19,920 24,420 26,670 27,500 34,930 46,830 49,890 59,980 65,430 85,800 - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders Bill and Account Collectors Bus Drivers (School or Special Client) Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants Shipping, Receiving, and Traffic Clerks Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators Receptionists and Information Clerks Food Preparation Workers Construction Laborers Cooks (Restaurant) Team Assemblers Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks Accountants and Auditors Secretaries and Admin. Assistants (Except Legal, Medical, and Exec.) Office Clerks (General) Waiters and Waitresses Cashiers Combined Food Prep. and Serving Workers (Including Fast Food) Retail Salespersons Number of Jobs, 2016 Atlanta Metro Region: Top 20 Employing Occupations at High Risk of Automation CHALLENGE: Planning for Increasing Automation in the Workforce
- 12. Top 10 Employing Occupations at High Risk of Automation Number of Workers Percent Change, 2015-16 Share of Total Workers Mean Wage Retail Salespersons 85,800 1% 3.45% $ 25,490 Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 65,430 13% 2.63% $ 18,660 Cashiers 59,980 4% 2.41% $ 20,030 Waiters and Waitresses 49,890 0% 2.00% $ 19,230 Office Clerks, General 46,830 -1% 1.88% $ 30,430 Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 34,930 0% 1.40% $ 37,260 Accountants and Auditors 27,500 -4% 1.11% $ 79,070 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 26,670 0% 1.07% $ 41,110 Team Assemblers 24,420 11% 0.98% $ 27,800 Cooks, Restaurant 19,920 5% 0.80% $ 24,050 CHALLENGE: Planning for Increasing Automation in the Workforce
- 13. $32,498 $38,469 $75,399 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 Atlanta Metro Region: Mean Wage by Risk of Automation High Risk Medium Risk Low Risk 35% 27% 39% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Atlanta Metro Region: Share of Employment by Risk of Automation High Risk Medium Risk Low Risk CHALLENGE: Planning for Increasing Automation in the Workforce
- 14. 48.5 62.6 74.8 72.5 70.1 53.1 60.8 69.2 55.3 67.9 11.8 43.3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Boston Chicago Minneapolis Atlanta Charlotte Dallas Houston Washington DC Denver Phoenix San Francisco Seattle % of Homes Affordable to Median Income Household (Q1, 2017) Source: Housing Opportunity Index, NAHB (Q1, 2017) U.S. Average Overall, Metro Atlanta is an Affordable Place CHALLENGE: Increasing Access to Housing Affordability and Jobs
- 15. CNT – “Losing Ground” Housing Opportunity Index, NAHB Add in Transportation costs – and affordability flips (For Moderate Income Family ~$47K/Annually) CHALLENGE: Increasing Access to Housing Affordability and Jobs
- 16. 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year-Over-Year Change in Sales Prices and Job Earnings Index: 1999=100 Home Prices Earnings CHALLENGE: Increasing Access to Housing Affordability and Jobs
- 17. CHALLENGE: Managing Impact of e-Commerce on Retail Space and Traffic
- 18. - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 Thousands Longevity Forecast for Metro Atlanta 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85+ CHALLENGE: Fostering Communities that Work for All Ages and Abilities
- 19. CHALLENGE: Improving Third-Grade Reading Skills Students who don’t read at grade level by 3rd grade are four times more likely than proficient readers to drop out of high school.
- 20. CHALLENGE: Maintaining Regional Water Planning and Stewardship 10% drop in total water consumption despite a population increase of 1 million ‘16‘00
- 21. 149 123 97 2000 2007 2013 PER CAPITA WATER DEMAND GALLONS PER CAPITA PER DAY CHALLENGE: Maintaining Regional Water Planning and Stewardship
- 22. For more information: Scott Haggard ARC Government Affairs Manager 678-471-7259 shaggard@atlantaregional.org For briefing documents on each challenge, visit whatsnextatl.org
- 23. L E G I S L AT I V E P E R S P E C T I V E O N C H A L L E N G E S PA N E L I S T S Mr. Kerry Armstrong, ARC Board Chair, Moderator Sen. Butch Miller, Senate President Pro Tem Sen. Brandon Beach, Transportation Committee Chair Rep. Kevin Tanner, Transportation Committee Chair Rep. Bob Trammell, Minority Leader ARC Legislative Breakfast 2 0 1 8
Editor's Notes
- Welcome to the first annual ARC Legislative Breakfast. We are so pleased that you all were able to join us. On behalf of ARC Chairman Kerry Armstrong, and all of our board members who are present, we welcome you.
- This event is part of our new “What’s Next ATL” series. This is an ARC initiative launched in November 2017 to help the region identify issues we should be tackling today to ensure the region’s future success. To date, it includes a look at these challenges, to be unveiled here today, as well as a speaker series, started at our 2017 State of the Region Breakfast that some of you attended. What’s Next ATL is aligned with the main elements of the Atlanta Region’s Plan, ARC’s long-range blueprint to win the future – Mobility, Livability, and Economy.
- For 2018, we have identified these 10 key challenges for the region.
- By way of background, and to inform your understanding of why these particular challenges were identified by ARC, it may help to give you a quick overview of how many different roles ARC plays in the region, the ninth largest metro area in the Unites States.
- For our first challenge, we selected an issue that has received considerable legislative attention in the past few years. This past year, with the creation of the House Commission on Transit Governance and Funding, it has taken on added importance. ARC has been an active partner in providing research and data for the Commission, and hosted its October meeting at our offices. One of the most salient pieces of data I presented to the Commission was this – when we consider how Georgia compares in state transit spending with our most direct competitors, we see that Georgia ranks somewhat poorly. Our neighboring states of Florida, Tennessee and North Carolina spend anywhere from $5.85 to $13.61 per capita in state funds on transit, and state funds comprise roughly a tenth of all money spent on transit. Virginia, which in recent years increased its transit investment, now spends $13.75 per capita in state funds, which make up over 16% of all money spent on transit. When we take these same comparison states and examine another measurement of transit investment, we see that Georgia continues to compare less favorably. Georgia spends only 9 cents in state funds per transit trip taken, compared to 99 cents for Florida, 91 cents for North Carolina, $1.18 for Tennessee, and $1.55 for Virginia. And Georgia has 118 transit systems, which is significantly more than some states, and 168 million annual trips on transit, which outpaces all but Florida.
- I expect that the House Commission will recommend some changes that will help improve Georgia’s rankings in state participation in transit, but for now, Georgia ranks significantly below our most direct economic competitors, and significantly below the national average in all categories of measurement. And Georgia’s transit ridership is the 10th highest in the nation.
- When we examine transit governance, ARC has been part of conversations on this topic for many years. To meet transit service needs, multiple systems beyond the original MARTA have sprung up, including county-operated bus or vanpool services in Cobb, Gwinnett, Cherokee, Henry, and Douglas counties. ARC has facilitated dialogue over the past 15 years about how to make transit trips more seamless for the customer, first through the Regional Transit Institutional Analysis, then the Transit Planning Board, which finally evolved into the Regional Transit Committee of today. ARC also endorsed in 2011 a potential regional governance framework, containing many ideas which have merit in current legislative discussions. To fulfill the vision of a comprehensive regional transit network for the 21st century, ARC is committed to work with legislators and other stakeholders on a governance framework that allows this vision to become reality.
- Challenge #2 is one that we are all becoming more familiar with every day, just by watching the news. Transportation technology is changing rapidly. Cutting-edge advancements are headed our way, experts say, such as self-driving vehicles, “smart” signals that optimize traffic flow, and connected cars that “talk” to each other and avoid collisions. These changes promise to fundamentally transform our region – not unlike when the horse and buggy gave way to the internal combustion engine. It also requires a regional response: After all, traffic doesn’t stop at the city or county line. The future could bring smoother-flowing and safer traffic, more efficient logistics, and better connections between mass transit and jobs. The trucking industry may be one of the earliest adopters of driving automation, meaning we may someday see convoys of autonomous trucks on our highways. The new technology will also bring challenges. To have it work well, metro Atlanta will require a seamless technology that spans the region – sensors in roads, “smart” traffic signals, and secure IT systems to handle data. Local governments and transportation planners will need to ensure that disadvantaged communities aren’t left out. And automation threatens employment of truck drivers and other sectors. To begin planning for this new world, the Atlanta Regional Commission in 2017 brought together 300 local government and transportation officials for the region’s first ConnectATL summit to hear from national experts and consider the implications for communities, infrastructure, and the workforce. Additional ConnectATL forums are planned to help the region stay on top of this critical issue.
- Our third challenge is also transportation-related, and that is the increasing movement of freight throughout the region. With more than 3,900 logistics providers in Georgia, the movement of goods within and through metro Atlanta is critical to the region’s economic competitiveness. Many recommended projects from ARC’s freight plan are already in the region’s Transportation Improvement Program (TIP), or short-term work program, including $1.8 billion programmed for projects that will begin construction by 2021. Other long-range projects include new interchanges, merging lanes on highways, and managed Express Lanes for commuters that will free up capacity on general purpose lanes. The Georgia Ports Authority is continuing with construction of the Savannah Harbor Expansion Project (SHEP), while Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport is constructing new air cargo facilities to move freight more quickly and expand their operations. Moving freight more efficiently through transportation technology improvements and private sector supply chain advancements is also key to managing freight growth.
- Our 4th challenge shifts to a workforce focus: matching available jobs with qualified workers. As the Regional Workforce Development Board for 7 counties, ARC works with the private and public sector to ensure that residents who want jobs can get them. But there is often a mismatch: From August 2016 to 2017, 55% of the job postings reported by Burning Glass (a labor demand data firm) required a Bachelor’s degree or higher. However, of people 25 and older in the metro region, only an estimated 37% of residents would meet this requirement, according to the 2016 American Community Survey. This shows the education gap – the education required by employers is significantly larger than the education the current workforce has. This speaks to better alignment among workforce training providers, universities, public schools and technical colleges to needs of employers, which has been a focus of the Deal Administration.
- Our fifth challenge also relates to the workforce and how it operates in the future – and that is the impact of automation on jobs. An Oxford University study from 2013 estimated that, by 2030, 47% of all jobs in the global economy will be subject to automation. Burning Glass—a labor demand data firm---adapted the Oxford methodology to make subnational estimates of job automation risk. In Atlanta, retail salespersons make up the largest share of occupational jobs at high risk of automation, followed by food preparers and servers (of mostly fast food) and cashiers. Retail sales is also the largest employing occupation in the metro region overall.
- Continuing on this line, of the ten largest employing occupations at high risk of automation, only one (accountants and auditors) has an average annual wage of over $45,000. (source: Burning Glass) This means that potentially, a more automated workforce could exacerbate our already problematic income inequality issues in metro Atlanta.
- Looking at the same data another way, the occupations at highest risk of automation make up 35% of the employment in the Atlanta Metro region. These occupations are also, on average, the lowest paid.—at less than 50% of the average annual salary level for those jobs at low risk of automation. (Data Source: Burning Glass)
- Our sixth challenge involves housing affordability and access to jobs. We’re going to add 2.5 million people by the year 2040 – that’s like moving everyone in metro Charlotte to metro Atlanta. Where are they going to live? How do we ensure that people can live close to jobs and/or transit so they aren’t forced to spend thousands of dollars a year on transportation or they aren’t forced to be under-employed because they settled for a job closer to their home? More important to me today is the affordability piece of housing in metro Atlanta. Not necessarily, subsidized “affordable housing” as the government defines it, but simply the idea that people should be able to afford to live near the jobs for which they are trained, or at least near public transit that gets them to those jobs. It’s been all over the news lately: stories about the Beltline and whether their affordable housing goals will happen; stories about housing near MARTA stations and whether we can prevent gentrification in those areas; and stories about people walking as much as 10 miles to get to work because they can’t afford to live closer, can’t afford to own a car, and there is no public transit in their area. The lady I’m referencing worked at a Wal-Mart and had to walk more than 10 miles to get there. Her church eventually helped her buy a car, but not everyone is so lucky. Or so determined to work for a living and be independent. Atlanta has always been a place people move to because we have jobs and a low cost of living. We have this reputation because housing is cheap, especially in the outer suburbs. As you can see here, we’re one of the more affordable large metros in the country, behind only Minneapolis (yikes, I get chills just thinking about the snow and the cold).
- But when you combine the cost of housing with the cost of transportation (owning, insuring and driving a car), we rank as one of the most expensive regions in the country. In fact, the combined cost is roughly 63% of a metro Atlantan’s annual median income. It’s no wonder people aren’t saving any money for emergencies and retirement. You can see in this chart that we are the 6th most expensive place in the country. Every metro above us on this list is in California or Florida where land is scarce and expensive. ARC is a founding partner in the TransFormation Alliance, a group of more than 18 agencies and nonprofits working to ensure that as MARTA and others add housing around transit stations, that they keep that housing affordable for the people who rely on the transit to get them to work and school. But it’s not easy. It’s not easy for the developer to make money in that model, and it’s not easy to keep the market from driving the prices out of reach because these areas are in such high demand. On the whole, Decatur is a microcosm of the region’s problem. It’s hard to buy a house in Decatur for less than $1 million because Decatur is ITP and has access to MARTA. We are pricing out the people who benefit most from living near jobs and transit. This issue is one that I personally care a great deal about and I would love to see the forces align to tackle it over the next 10 years or so as the region begins to seriously consider expansion of our limited public transit options.
- Looking at our housing affordability issue another way, since 1999, overall, home prices have been rising faster than average wages, especially during the 2005 – 2007 period, where home prices nationwide were rising dramatically. During this period, however, the consumer could make up the gap between their earning and the price of home because lending standards were looser and getting a mortgage was significantly easier prior to the Great Recession. With the economy recovering post-recession, the gap has widened again, but lending standards are much stricter, thus it is harder to achieve home ownership.
- We now move into the 7th challenge, which is the e-commerce revolution and its impact on retail space and transportation. According to a 2017 Oxford Martin study of e-commerce, online purchases account for an increasing proportion of overall retail sales in the US, totaling 8.1% of those sales in 2017 (almost $395 billion in 2016, a 15% increase from 2015). The land use requirements and space demands of e-commerce differ from those of traditional retail. Retail space in big-box developments (defined as retail developments of 100,000 SF plus) increased by 31% from 2000-2010, but only 1.4% from 2010 to 2Q 2017. Big-box retailers expect their online market to continue to grow much faster than their “brick and mortar” operations. For example, Wal-Mart expects online sales to grow by 40% in 2018, but projects total sales to increase by only 3%. The square footage of warehouse space to fulfill online orders is an estimated 300% higher that of conventional store-based fulfillment. With residential development pressure impinging on desired locations or industrial development, increasing land costs are expected to drive up rents for industrial space. More distribution centers also means more trucks to move goods, further impacting our transportation challenges.
- Our 8th challenge is a topic on which we are very focused at ARC, through the Area Agency on Aging, and that is building communities that work for all ages and abilities. The aging of society is a global phenomenon, led by the retirement of the baby boomer generation. The number of Atlanta residents (20-county area) aged 65 and over is expected to increase from just over 247,000 in 1990 to over 1.5 million by 2040---a 500 percent increase compared to a 130 percent for the rest of the population. In terms of share, in 1990 ages 65+ were only 8% of the population; by 2040, they are expected to be close to 20% of the population. Among the 65+ group, 85+ are the fastest growing, increasing from 9% of 65+ (21,700) in 1990 to 16% (245,000) by 2040. Notes: The main point here is that we have never had a society in which almost 500,000 residents were 80+.
- Our ninth challenge is one that many of us are all too familiar with, and that is the state of our educational system – specifically, third-grade reading skills. During the third grade year, students are making the shift from learning to read to reading to learn. Meeting increased educational demands becomes more difficult for students who struggle to read. One longitudinal study found that students who do not read at grade level by third grade are four times more likely to drop out of high school than proficient readers. For the 2014-2015 period, only 40% of students in the school districts of Atlanta’s five core counties read proficiently at the end of third grade; of those economically disadvantaged, only 25% read proficiently. In metro Atlanta, eight school districts and four non-profit organizations, including ARC, have formed the “Learn4Life” initiative to target six key educational goals, including improving eighth-grade math skills, high school graduation rates, college enrollment totals and completion rates for post-secondary education. Improving third-grade reading levels is the project’s first goal.
- Our tenth challenge is also one that many of you should be familiar with, and that is regional water planning and stewardship. Metro Atlanta has unique challenges when it comes to water supply and management. We rely almost entirely on surface water, as a thick layer of granite underground means access to groundwater is negligible. We’re also located along small rivers at the headwaters of six major river basins. And while we receive abundant rain most years, periods of drought are not uncommon. The good news: If our water resources are properly managed, we’ll be able to meet our long-term needs. The Atlanta region has made great strides in water management and conservation. Robust conservation measures are now in place, including a toilet rebate program to replace old, inefficient models and “tiered” rates that encourage conservation. These programs have been a huge success. Today, total water withdrawals in the region have dropped by more than 10 percent since 2000, even as our population has increased by more than 1 million.
- We’ve instituted “conservation pricing;” meaning if you use more water, you pay more. It’s a strong incentive for us all to be better water stewards. And, we’ve initiated some very practical strategies like using new technologies to identify water leaks and ordinances for recycling water at car washes that have cut water use by 35%. Through the conviction to pursue what’s right — and through thoughtful planning — our collective actions are making an amazing and measurable difference.
- We thank you again for taking time out of your busy legislative schedules to attend today. Please don’t hesitate to reach out to myself or Scott Haggard at any time if we can be of assistance on any policy issue you may be confronting. I also encourage you to visit our new website, whatsnextatl.org, for additional information and one-page downloadable summaries of each of these challenges.
- And now, I will turn the program over to ARC Board Chair Kerry Armstrong for a brief discussion with some key legislative leaders on these challenges. Mr. Chairman…