The document summarizes several US economic indicators from July 12-16, 2010. It reports that the US trade deficit widened in May as imports grew more than exports, though exports to capital goods and vehicles increased. Mortgage purchase applications fell to a 14-year low while retail sales contracted in June. Jobless claims dropped sharply but employment issues continued to weigh on buyer confidence. Producer prices fell on lower food and energy costs. Industrial production rose slightly but automobile production declined. Consumer prices fell due to lower energy prices.
The document discusses positive economic news in the US including strong job growth and wage increases in November. It notes the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indexes reached new highs and the economy is strengthening, though inflation remains low. Congress faces funding decisions by the December 11th deadline and debates blocking part of President Obama's immigration order. In contrast, Russia's economy is weakening due to sanctions and low oil prices.
The US GDP grew only 1.2% in the second quarter of 2016, well below expectations, as cautious business investment offset robust consumer spending. While consumer spending remained strong, declining business investment, reduced government spending, and businesses paring back inventories slowed overall growth. The sluggish growth raises concerns about the durability of the economic expansion and could spill into the presidential election campaign.
Will the Momentum coming out of 2013 Carry Our Growth Through 2014?Lawrence R. Levin
The Newsletter discusses why the current political bickering may keep us out of recession for the next 3 quarters. The Wise Old Owl talks about how to use the current calm to be ready for the coming changes.
The Dragon Fund selects Tobacco as its subsector to watch for Q4 2016. While smoking rates are declining in the US and Europe, they are rising globally due to increasing incomes in developing nations. Tobacco stocks have slightly undervalued valuations and producers can maintain revenue growth by raising prices. However, rising interest rates and regulations pose risks. The report analyzes the Consumer Staples sector performance in Q3 2016 and various subsectors' valuations, growth rates, and outlook. It highlights that Tobacco underperformed in Q3 but sees limited long-term risks to the industry.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
The document summarizes several US economic indicators from July 12-16, 2010. It reports that the US trade deficit widened in May as imports grew more than exports, though exports to capital goods and vehicles increased. Mortgage purchase applications fell to a 14-year low while retail sales contracted in June. Jobless claims dropped sharply but employment issues continued to weigh on buyer confidence. Producer prices fell on lower food and energy costs. Industrial production rose slightly but automobile production declined. Consumer prices fell due to lower energy prices.
The document discusses positive economic news in the US including strong job growth and wage increases in November. It notes the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indexes reached new highs and the economy is strengthening, though inflation remains low. Congress faces funding decisions by the December 11th deadline and debates blocking part of President Obama's immigration order. In contrast, Russia's economy is weakening due to sanctions and low oil prices.
The US GDP grew only 1.2% in the second quarter of 2016, well below expectations, as cautious business investment offset robust consumer spending. While consumer spending remained strong, declining business investment, reduced government spending, and businesses paring back inventories slowed overall growth. The sluggish growth raises concerns about the durability of the economic expansion and could spill into the presidential election campaign.
Will the Momentum coming out of 2013 Carry Our Growth Through 2014?Lawrence R. Levin
The Newsletter discusses why the current political bickering may keep us out of recession for the next 3 quarters. The Wise Old Owl talks about how to use the current calm to be ready for the coming changes.
The Dragon Fund selects Tobacco as its subsector to watch for Q4 2016. While smoking rates are declining in the US and Europe, they are rising globally due to increasing incomes in developing nations. Tobacco stocks have slightly undervalued valuations and producers can maintain revenue growth by raising prices. However, rising interest rates and regulations pose risks. The report analyzes the Consumer Staples sector performance in Q3 2016 and various subsectors' valuations, growth rates, and outlook. It highlights that Tobacco underperformed in Q3 but sees limited long-term risks to the industry.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
The document summarizes a U.S. macroeconomic forecast by Cushman & Wakefield. It finds that:
1) The U.S. economy has remained resilient despite global headwinds like Brexit, with strong consumer spending and job growth powering continued expansion.
2) GDP growth is expected to be moderate at 1.6% in 2016 and 2.1% in 2017, while employment growth will exceed 2.2 million new jobs in 2016 and 1.8 million in 2017.
3) Commercial real estate markets like office and industrial will continue tightening, with office rents growing 5.5% in 2016 and 4.8% in 2017 and industrial vacancy falling further before a modest rise in
Last week the pound strengthened by an average of 0.5% against the other dozen most actively-traded currencies. The main focus for sterling was Brexit, and whether the government could come up with a plan that would avoid alienating half the ruling Conservative party.
LBS - Housing CPI Retail Preview, May 2017Mark MacIsaac
This document provides an analysis of recent economic data in Canada. It summarizes that housing market data showed a cooling in the Toronto region with falling home sales and rising listings. Inflation as measured by CPI is expected to rise slightly less than expectations, while retail sales are forecast to increase modestly. Overall, real GDP growth is projected to slow in the second quarter but rebound in the third quarter, with annual growth of around 2% in 2017-2018, assuming expansionary US fiscal policies are adopted.
The stock market has rallied recently even as the economy remains weak, similar to walking up a downward-moving escalator. Some signs suggest parts of the economy may be stabilizing, like improvements in manufacturing and services sectors. While employment and GDP numbers remain poor, consumer spending increased in the first quarter. Inventories fell sharply but this may help future growth. Other positive signs include rising consumer confidence and stabilizing housing. Many companies exceeded low earnings estimates, and rapid responses from corporations, consumers, and governments may help lead to eventual recovery.
The document analyzes potential unemployment scenarios in the United States over the next decade. It first examines current unemployment data and trends, finding the unemployment rate at 10% with 17.3% underemployment. It then presents three scenarios: 1) unemployment peaking in late 2010 and returning to pre-recession levels by 2013, based on historical patterns; 2) unemployment declining more slowly due to factors like declining consumer credit, part-time work, and low labor participation; 3) unemployment remaining elevated for years due to challenges across many industries in creating sufficient new jobs.
Our major goal is to help you achieve your academic goals. We are commited to helping you get top grades in your academic papers.We desire to help you come up with great essays that meet your lecturer's expectations.Contact us now at http://www.premiumessays.net/
The document discusses inflation pressures in the US economy and how that may impact gold prices. Several economic reports showed rising prices and supply constraints. Manufacturing and business surveys highlighted increasing backlogs, shortages, and delivery delays. Wage growth in leisure/hospitality surpassed 9% year-over-year. While the Fed claims inflation is transitory, the document argues their rhetoric on this is fading. It concludes that disappointing jobs reports may boost the dollar and Treasury yields, putting pressure on gold prices.
This document provides an overview of the 2016 state of the US economy. Key points include:
1) Real GDP growth has stalled at around 2% despite low unemployment, due to factors like declining commodity prices.
2) Unemployment remains at historically low levels around 5% but inflation remains below 2% due to international factors.
3) The Federal Reserve raised interest rates modestly in 2015 but further increases are expected to be gradual given mixed economic indicators.
Mr. William McConnell evaluates the 2016 economic conditions, concluding that real growth is at a stall despite full employment. This white paper is part of a three part series. William McConnell will publish a white paper focused on the state of the construction industry next month, followed by the state of the surety industry in July, 2016.
This document provides licensing information for Weichert Financial Services and Mortgage Access Corp. It lists the various states and jurisdictions where they are licensed to conduct mortgage lending and brokerage activities. It also provides contact information and notes that Mortgage Access Corp arranges loans through third party providers and is an equal housing lender.
According to the QNB Group, the US economy is showing signs of slowing down again as higher taxes and lower government spending have led to reduced consumer spending and weaker manufacturing activity. Consumer spending declined for the first time in nearly a year in April, partly due to higher payroll taxes. Government spending cuts have also lowered incomes. Manufacturing contracted in May for the first time in almost a year. The QNB Group expects US GDP growth in 2013 to be around 1-1.5%, weaker than previous forecasts, and this slower growth will negatively impact the global economy through lower demand.
While recent economic data showed a slight contraction in the US economy, the stock market continues to make small gains supported by better than expected manufacturing numbers and mergers and acquisitions activity. Current economic indicators are neither strongly positive nor negative, allowing the market to continue climbing. Many analysts believe tempered interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve will further support stock price increases. However, ongoing weak consumer spending may slow overall economic growth if the trend persists long-term.
Employers added 175,000 jobs in February, more than projected, indicating the US economy is recovering from weather-related setbacks earlier in the year. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 6.7% as more people entered the labor force. While job growth was stronger than expected, the increase in unemployment requires further analysis. Overall, the report signals employers remain optimistic about continued economic growth going forward.
This document contains a monthly economic review and chartbook from Wells Fargo Securities. It summarizes key U.S. economic indicators from January and February 2016. Real GDP growth was slow in the fourth quarter of 2015 at 0.7% annualized. While retail sales rose slightly in January, manufacturing activity continues to show weakness, with declines in new orders and employment. Business and consumer sentiment also declined in January.
Olivier desbarres what you may have missed and why it mattersOlivier Desbarres
1) The document provides a summary of recent economic and financial news from around the world over the Christmas period, including revisions to US and UK GDP growth, upcoming elections in Greece that could threaten its bailout package, strong data but cautious policy in Korea, contraction in Russia amid low oil prices and sanctions, and continued declines in crude oil prices.
2) It discusses the implications of these developments, such as the Fed still being unlikely to raise rates before mid-year despite a GDP revision, challenges for the UK and Eurozone from Greece's elections, Russia facing stagflation, and Korea and oil prices.
3) Key elections and their outcomes are highlighted as a major theme to watch in 2015, including
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in September due to concerns about slowing global growth and volatility in financial markets. This left investors uncertain about the strength of the US economy and the timing of future rate hikes. Global equities had their worst quarter since 2011 due to fears about China's economy and declining commodity prices. Locally, South Africa's GDP contracted more than expected and the outlook was revised lower. The rand depreciated sharply while domestic equities fell, with resources shares hit hardest by declining commodity prices.
- Real GDP declined in the first quarter of 2014 but this contraction is expected to be temporary. The public sector has weighed on overall growth but may soon contribute to growth again.
- While the budget deficit is shrinking, there is no credible plan to return to a budget surplus. Business investment and personal consumption expenditures also declined slightly in Q1 but are expected to pick up going forward.
- The unemployment rate overstates the health of the labor market as discouraged workers and part-time employment remain issues. Wage growth has been slow and consumer spending growth is expected to remain subdued.
U.S. Health Insurance Exchanges — Moving ForwardEmily Jackson
This document provides an economic forecast and analysis of global economic conditions. It discusses how the global recovery is now 3 years old but celebrations are muted as growth has been slow. Growth is forecast to be 3.1% in 2012 and 3.6% in 2013. The deepening recession in the eurozone is a key factor slowing growth as debt strains continue in many countries. Recent EU agreements provide support but long-term solutions are still uncertain. Slowdowns in Europe are moderating growth in North America and Asia through reduced exports. China, India, and Brazil are taking steps to boost growth through interest rate cuts and fiscal measures. The US has potential for relative outperformance but growth is also slowing there.
The document provides an overview of key economic indicators including:
- Personal income was unchanged in September while spending declined 0.5% and savings increased.
- Real GDP expanded 3.5% in Q3 2009 primarily from consumer spending, exports, inventory investment and federal spending.
- The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index increased 0.3% in October and has risen for 7 consecutive months, indicating a continued economic recovery.
- Productivity growth rose 9.5% in Q3 while unit labor costs fell, as firms cut back on labor to maximize profits with increasing output.
The document provides an overview of recent macroeconomic and market developments from the perspective of FinLight Research. It discusses both positive and negative factors in the US and global economies. The US stock market is strong but a short-term pullback is seen as likely. Consumer confidence has declined sharply. Earnings growth is modest with revenues stable. Credit spreads remain tight but high yield is favored over investment grade. Treasury yields may retrace recently but are still seen heading higher eventually.
These are our views (macro, technical as well as quantitative) on the financial markets for the month to come...
FinLight Research is a quantitative cross-asset research firm with an expertise in real assets analysis and a focus on some specific issues: risk budgeting, asset allocation, trading systems and business intelligence.
From here, we are rethinking, day after day, the investment paradigm, preparing optimally for what lies ahead… This is our pretension!
The document summarizes a U.S. macroeconomic forecast by Cushman & Wakefield. It finds that:
1) The U.S. economy has remained resilient despite global headwinds like Brexit, with strong consumer spending and job growth powering continued expansion.
2) GDP growth is expected to be moderate at 1.6% in 2016 and 2.1% in 2017, while employment growth will exceed 2.2 million new jobs in 2016 and 1.8 million in 2017.
3) Commercial real estate markets like office and industrial will continue tightening, with office rents growing 5.5% in 2016 and 4.8% in 2017 and industrial vacancy falling further before a modest rise in
Last week the pound strengthened by an average of 0.5% against the other dozen most actively-traded currencies. The main focus for sterling was Brexit, and whether the government could come up with a plan that would avoid alienating half the ruling Conservative party.
LBS - Housing CPI Retail Preview, May 2017Mark MacIsaac
This document provides an analysis of recent economic data in Canada. It summarizes that housing market data showed a cooling in the Toronto region with falling home sales and rising listings. Inflation as measured by CPI is expected to rise slightly less than expectations, while retail sales are forecast to increase modestly. Overall, real GDP growth is projected to slow in the second quarter but rebound in the third quarter, with annual growth of around 2% in 2017-2018, assuming expansionary US fiscal policies are adopted.
The stock market has rallied recently even as the economy remains weak, similar to walking up a downward-moving escalator. Some signs suggest parts of the economy may be stabilizing, like improvements in manufacturing and services sectors. While employment and GDP numbers remain poor, consumer spending increased in the first quarter. Inventories fell sharply but this may help future growth. Other positive signs include rising consumer confidence and stabilizing housing. Many companies exceeded low earnings estimates, and rapid responses from corporations, consumers, and governments may help lead to eventual recovery.
The document analyzes potential unemployment scenarios in the United States over the next decade. It first examines current unemployment data and trends, finding the unemployment rate at 10% with 17.3% underemployment. It then presents three scenarios: 1) unemployment peaking in late 2010 and returning to pre-recession levels by 2013, based on historical patterns; 2) unemployment declining more slowly due to factors like declining consumer credit, part-time work, and low labor participation; 3) unemployment remaining elevated for years due to challenges across many industries in creating sufficient new jobs.
Our major goal is to help you achieve your academic goals. We are commited to helping you get top grades in your academic papers.We desire to help you come up with great essays that meet your lecturer's expectations.Contact us now at http://www.premiumessays.net/
The document discusses inflation pressures in the US economy and how that may impact gold prices. Several economic reports showed rising prices and supply constraints. Manufacturing and business surveys highlighted increasing backlogs, shortages, and delivery delays. Wage growth in leisure/hospitality surpassed 9% year-over-year. While the Fed claims inflation is transitory, the document argues their rhetoric on this is fading. It concludes that disappointing jobs reports may boost the dollar and Treasury yields, putting pressure on gold prices.
This document provides an overview of the 2016 state of the US economy. Key points include:
1) Real GDP growth has stalled at around 2% despite low unemployment, due to factors like declining commodity prices.
2) Unemployment remains at historically low levels around 5% but inflation remains below 2% due to international factors.
3) The Federal Reserve raised interest rates modestly in 2015 but further increases are expected to be gradual given mixed economic indicators.
Mr. William McConnell evaluates the 2016 economic conditions, concluding that real growth is at a stall despite full employment. This white paper is part of a three part series. William McConnell will publish a white paper focused on the state of the construction industry next month, followed by the state of the surety industry in July, 2016.
This document provides licensing information for Weichert Financial Services and Mortgage Access Corp. It lists the various states and jurisdictions where they are licensed to conduct mortgage lending and brokerage activities. It also provides contact information and notes that Mortgage Access Corp arranges loans through third party providers and is an equal housing lender.
According to the QNB Group, the US economy is showing signs of slowing down again as higher taxes and lower government spending have led to reduced consumer spending and weaker manufacturing activity. Consumer spending declined for the first time in nearly a year in April, partly due to higher payroll taxes. Government spending cuts have also lowered incomes. Manufacturing contracted in May for the first time in almost a year. The QNB Group expects US GDP growth in 2013 to be around 1-1.5%, weaker than previous forecasts, and this slower growth will negatively impact the global economy through lower demand.
While recent economic data showed a slight contraction in the US economy, the stock market continues to make small gains supported by better than expected manufacturing numbers and mergers and acquisitions activity. Current economic indicators are neither strongly positive nor negative, allowing the market to continue climbing. Many analysts believe tempered interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve will further support stock price increases. However, ongoing weak consumer spending may slow overall economic growth if the trend persists long-term.
Employers added 175,000 jobs in February, more than projected, indicating the US economy is recovering from weather-related setbacks earlier in the year. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 6.7% as more people entered the labor force. While job growth was stronger than expected, the increase in unemployment requires further analysis. Overall, the report signals employers remain optimistic about continued economic growth going forward.
This document contains a monthly economic review and chartbook from Wells Fargo Securities. It summarizes key U.S. economic indicators from January and February 2016. Real GDP growth was slow in the fourth quarter of 2015 at 0.7% annualized. While retail sales rose slightly in January, manufacturing activity continues to show weakness, with declines in new orders and employment. Business and consumer sentiment also declined in January.
Olivier desbarres what you may have missed and why it mattersOlivier Desbarres
1) The document provides a summary of recent economic and financial news from around the world over the Christmas period, including revisions to US and UK GDP growth, upcoming elections in Greece that could threaten its bailout package, strong data but cautious policy in Korea, contraction in Russia amid low oil prices and sanctions, and continued declines in crude oil prices.
2) It discusses the implications of these developments, such as the Fed still being unlikely to raise rates before mid-year despite a GDP revision, challenges for the UK and Eurozone from Greece's elections, Russia facing stagflation, and Korea and oil prices.
3) Key elections and their outcomes are highlighted as a major theme to watch in 2015, including
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in September due to concerns about slowing global growth and volatility in financial markets. This left investors uncertain about the strength of the US economy and the timing of future rate hikes. Global equities had their worst quarter since 2011 due to fears about China's economy and declining commodity prices. Locally, South Africa's GDP contracted more than expected and the outlook was revised lower. The rand depreciated sharply while domestic equities fell, with resources shares hit hardest by declining commodity prices.
- Real GDP declined in the first quarter of 2014 but this contraction is expected to be temporary. The public sector has weighed on overall growth but may soon contribute to growth again.
- While the budget deficit is shrinking, there is no credible plan to return to a budget surplus. Business investment and personal consumption expenditures also declined slightly in Q1 but are expected to pick up going forward.
- The unemployment rate overstates the health of the labor market as discouraged workers and part-time employment remain issues. Wage growth has been slow and consumer spending growth is expected to remain subdued.
U.S. Health Insurance Exchanges — Moving ForwardEmily Jackson
This document provides an economic forecast and analysis of global economic conditions. It discusses how the global recovery is now 3 years old but celebrations are muted as growth has been slow. Growth is forecast to be 3.1% in 2012 and 3.6% in 2013. The deepening recession in the eurozone is a key factor slowing growth as debt strains continue in many countries. Recent EU agreements provide support but long-term solutions are still uncertain. Slowdowns in Europe are moderating growth in North America and Asia through reduced exports. China, India, and Brazil are taking steps to boost growth through interest rate cuts and fiscal measures. The US has potential for relative outperformance but growth is also slowing there.
The document provides an overview of key economic indicators including:
- Personal income was unchanged in September while spending declined 0.5% and savings increased.
- Real GDP expanded 3.5% in Q3 2009 primarily from consumer spending, exports, inventory investment and federal spending.
- The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index increased 0.3% in October and has risen for 7 consecutive months, indicating a continued economic recovery.
- Productivity growth rose 9.5% in Q3 while unit labor costs fell, as firms cut back on labor to maximize profits with increasing output.
The document provides an overview of recent macroeconomic and market developments from the perspective of FinLight Research. It discusses both positive and negative factors in the US and global economies. The US stock market is strong but a short-term pullback is seen as likely. Consumer confidence has declined sharply. Earnings growth is modest with revenues stable. Credit spreads remain tight but high yield is favored over investment grade. Treasury yields may retrace recently but are still seen heading higher eventually.
These are our views (macro, technical as well as quantitative) on the financial markets for the month to come...
FinLight Research is a quantitative cross-asset research firm with an expertise in real assets analysis and a focus on some specific issues: risk budgeting, asset allocation, trading systems and business intelligence.
From here, we are rethinking, day after day, the investment paradigm, preparing optimally for what lies ahead… This is our pretension!
US stocks gained for a sixth consecutive quarter, with the S&P 500 rising 5.2% to break 1900 for the first time. Investors looked past a sharp drop in first quarter GDP, focusing on continued Fed support and an expected economic acceleration. Treasury yields fell globally on expectations of further central bank stimulus in Europe. Corporate earnings are forecast to grow through the rest of 2014 after a weak start, supporting the outlook for stocks.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Wall Street saw significant declines in January as concerns about the fragility of economic recovery, bank reforms, China's tightening of lending standards, and Greece's debt crisis rattled investors. The Dow fell 3.2% for its first loss since June, while Treasury yields dipped as investors fled to safe haven government assets. Though fourth quarter GDP grew at a 5.7% rate, gains were attributed to temporary inventory adjustments rather than sustainable growth.
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Please note that our risk-based benchmark (cross-asset allocation calibrated to a given C-Var), our tilted portfolio (with tactical overlay exposures implied by the market views expressed above), as well as the corresponding main characteristics (usual statistics, risk contributions, backtests…), are available only for our subscribers.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera progressivement enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
Toutes nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
- The US stock market declined sharply in the third quarter due to concerns about a slowing global economy and uncertainty caused by Boehner's resignation.
- Central banks have intervened to support markets, but deteriorating fundamentals may eventually impact prices.
- Commodity prices fell to multi-year lows as Chinese growth slowed, while emerging markets face recession risks.
- The Fed held rates steady but may delay future hikes due to global equity declines and mixed economic data.
The document discusses key economic goals of governments which include full employment, steady annual growth in output without overheating, and stable prices with low inflation. It then provides guidance on writing about key economic indicators such as GDP, CPI, unemployment rates. It notes important details to focus on for each indicator and potential issues to be aware of.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera progressivement enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
Toutes nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
This document summarizes the current US economic outlook. It notes some positive indicators like improving manufacturing and corporate earnings numbers, but also highlights ongoing challenges. Specifically:
1) While manufacturing and mergers & acquisitions are up, hiring remains slow and unemployment high at 8.8%.
2) The housing market continues to struggle with foreclosures expected to rise again, further depressing home prices.
3) Overall the recovery is sluggish and dependent on improved consumer confidence, which remains weak due to high gas prices, slow wage growth, and concerns about job security.
The document summarizes key economic indicators and market activity from the previous day. It reports that stocks rebounded after declining the previous day, with the Nasdaq up 1.6%, S&P 500 up 1.3% and Dow up 1.1%. However, trading volumes fell. Bond yields and the dollar increased after a strong jobs report showed the economy added 204,000 jobs in October, easing fears about the impact of the government shutdown.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
The document provides summaries of recent economic indicators from around the world:
- China's manufacturing PMI slowed in July as output growth weakened and new orders declined slightly, while inflationary pressures eased.
- US manufacturing growth softened in July due to supply bottlenecks, with factories drawing down inventories to minimum levels.
- Eurozone recovery momentum remained solid in June but slowed slightly due to normalization and supply constraints, pushing inflation higher.
- US job growth was strong in July with 943,000 new payrolls added, supporting the Fed's timeline for tapering asset purchases later this year.
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Please note that our risk-based benchmark (cross-asset allocation calibrated to a given C-Var), our tilted portfolio (with tactical overlay exposures implied by the market views expressed above), as well as the corresponding main characteristics (usual statistics, risk contributions, backtests…), are available only for our subscribers.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera progressivement enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
Toutes nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Similar to What's bothering the U.S. economy? (20)
Finlight Research - Market Perspectives - Aug 2016
What's bothering the U.S. economy?
1. What's bothering the U.S. economy?
For months, economies across Asia and Europe have been stalling. Chinese factories are gearing
down, Japan is just limping out of recession and the eurozone has caught a nasty case of deflation.
By contrast, America's economy has seemed impervious, with growth chugging along nicely as the
job market continued to tighten -- until now. New data suggest that U.S. is also slowing down.
The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, shown below,
measures incoming economic data against analyst
forecasts. Better-than-expected results push the index
higher; while weaker-than-expected data moves it
lower. After peaking late last year, the index has
collapsed rapidly back to early 2014 lows as a variety
of data points -- from factory orders to retail sales and
consumer confidence -- have missed to the downside.
What's troubling for stocks, which pushed to new record highs on Friday, is that the Citigroup
Economic Surprise Index and the SP 500 usually move in unison. The relationship broke down
somewhat starting in late 2012, coinciding with the start of a deluge of cheap-money stimulus from
the major central banks.
But with the Federal Reserve set to raise rates later this year, and the Bank of Japan worrying about
the side effects of its stimulus measures, the relationship could very well realign.