Week Thirteen What's Next Future Predictions
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This document provides a summary of key trends and predictions for the future over several decades from the 1970s to the present. It notes that disruptive innovations often replace existing technologies, such as digital photography replacing film and LEDs replacing light bulbs. Memory and storage costs have decreased dramatically over time. Predictions are made that multi-modal input, geo-location services, and new display technologies like flexible OLED screens will become more common. The document concludes that news reporting will become more granular and unified online, with curation becoming more important, and that readers will help shape the future.
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Week Thirteen What's Next Future Predictions
- 1. Week Thirteen What’s Next? Wayne MacPhail
- 2. The future is here. It’s just unevenly distributed. -William Gibson
- 3. We drive into the future using only our rearview mirror. - Marshall McLuhan
- 4. The best way to predict the future, is to invent it. - Alan Kay
- 5. 1955 This ball is really important!
- 6. 1955 It says, be sure to plug in the keyboard and monitor! WTF? Oh, nice use of an anacronistic acronym for a cheap laugh Gladys, you skank.
- 7. 1969 34,000 bytes of memory 4,000,000,000 G of memory 43,000 Hz 2.600,000,000 GHz $46 million <$1000
- 8. 1970 Flammable Pants
- 9. 1977
- 10. 1980 Not a hairpiece
- 11. 2008 2010 = 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1992 1994
- 12. 2012 Four Years From Now
- 13. 1980-2008 4 million times more memory
- 14. Cost per megabyte of storage by year 50.0 1986 48 1990 13.6 37.5 1994 1.3 25.0 1998 0.066 2002 0.039 12.5 2006 0.0064 0 2008 0.0034 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2008
- 15. Watch the trends Expect disruptive innovation Imagine zero
- 17. Disruptive Innovations Digital vs Film Photography Desktop vs. Press Publishing LEDs vs. Light Bulbs Twitter vs Newsrooms
- 18. Batteries Due
- 19. Analytical Engine 1837 Charles Babbage
- 21. Home Computer, 1954 Rand Corporation
- 22. Knowledge Navigator, 1987 Apple Computer
- 23. Apple Lisa, 1984 Apple Computer
- 24. Macintosh 1984
- 25. The Trend to Zero Cost Time Storage Bandwidth Monitors Memory Processors Newspaper Readership
- 26. How to Think About the Future
- 27. Past Present Future Always concurrent
- 28. What’s next? First, what used to be next.
- 30. We’ve passed that now.
- 34. Multi-modal input with context awareness
- 40. OLED 100,000:1 ratio .002 inches thick Flaps in the breeze Will show up in photo IDs and cellphones
- 41. Wireless, location-aware silicon is the new wood pulp.
- 43. And the news? Granularity melts. Newsrooms unify. Curation rules. Newspaper thinking dies.
- 45. And the you? You get to make this all true.
- 46. Thanks for your kind attention.