This document provides an overview of investing for the best returns. It explains that asset-backed investments tend to outperform cash over the long run due to higher returns. Some asset classes are more volatile than others. Diversifying investments across asset classes can provide reasonable returns in different market conditions since different assets perform well at different times. The document also shows that combining lowly-correlated assets into a portfolio reduces overall volatility while maintaining higher returns than investing in a single asset class. It advocates for matching investment allocations to an individual's risk tolerance.
Managing Abu Dhabi's $627 Billion Sovereign Wealth Fund (ADIA), Presentation ...Aaron Beydoun
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Aaron-Micael Beydoun has estimated the depletion of Abu Dhabi's oil reserves in 93 years in a course on investment management at Harvard University. Managing the USD 620 Billion of the Emirate's sovereign wealth vis-à -vis the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, ADIA, he has proposed the following: Although an optimization of financial assets has established the portfolio strategic asset allocation, this ignores that underlying commodity asset i.e. oil, that forms the majority of client’s implied existing portfolio. Since the oil that forms the bulk of implied national wealth is highly volatile, then traditional portfolio investment risk management that only includes invested financial assets may not properly account for total wealth risk. Therefore, so as to properly account for national wealth risk, we recommend a strategic asset allocation that broadens the asset base to include the non-monetized commodity asset i.e. oil so as to properly account for national wealth risk.
Swallow Financial Planning's presentation to clients explaining our investment strategy and our approach to investing for the long term.
The presentation briefly covers:
- why we believe in asset-backed investments;
- why asset classes perform differently;
- why we believe it’s essential to diversify your investments;
- why risk and reward are always related;
- why risk reduces over the long term and;
- why we prefer passive funds.
Roger Montgomery, founder and chief investment officer at Montgomery Investment Management shares his key market insights and opportunities for equity investors in 2020.
1. Has the Australian equity market already been priced in a lower for longer environment
2. What are the risks for equity investors in 2020?
3. The advantages of a flexible investment strategy across sector, size and equity/cash
Managing Abu Dhabi's $627 Billion Sovereign Wealth Fund (ADIA), Presentation ...Aaron Beydoun
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Aaron-Micael Beydoun has estimated the depletion of Abu Dhabi's oil reserves in 93 years in a course on investment management at Harvard University. Managing the USD 620 Billion of the Emirate's sovereign wealth vis-à -vis the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, ADIA, he has proposed the following: Although an optimization of financial assets has established the portfolio strategic asset allocation, this ignores that underlying commodity asset i.e. oil, that forms the majority of client’s implied existing portfolio. Since the oil that forms the bulk of implied national wealth is highly volatile, then traditional portfolio investment risk management that only includes invested financial assets may not properly account for total wealth risk. Therefore, so as to properly account for national wealth risk, we recommend a strategic asset allocation that broadens the asset base to include the non-monetized commodity asset i.e. oil so as to properly account for national wealth risk.
Swallow Financial Planning's presentation to clients explaining our investment strategy and our approach to investing for the long term.
The presentation briefly covers:
- why we believe in asset-backed investments;
- why asset classes perform differently;
- why we believe it’s essential to diversify your investments;
- why risk and reward are always related;
- why risk reduces over the long term and;
- why we prefer passive funds.
Roger Montgomery, founder and chief investment officer at Montgomery Investment Management shares his key market insights and opportunities for equity investors in 2020.
1. Has the Australian equity market already been priced in a lower for longer environment
2. What are the risks for equity investors in 2020?
3. The advantages of a flexible investment strategy across sector, size and equity/cash
One of Australia’s leading and incisive economists, Craig James explains how Australia’s performance has shown signs of strength and resilience compared to other economies and shows signs of recovery. He also delves into what is likely to happen and affect our economy into the future. As a seasoned professional within banking, finance and journalism over the last 27 years, Craig is currently Chief Equities Economist at Commonwealth Securities, where he interprets 'big picture' economic and financial trends for customers, clients and staff.
http://www.charteredaccountants.com.au
Swallow Financial Planning's presentation to clients explaining our investment strategy and our approach to investing for the long term.
The presentation briefly covers:
- why we believe in asset-backed investments;
- why asset classes perform differently;
- why we believe it’s essential to diversify your investments;
- why risk and reward are always related;
- why risk reduces over the long term and;
- why we prefer passive funds.
Mansfield Capital Brochure Ppt Mar2009 1110Trader1mm
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Mansfield Capital PowerPoint
presentation showing aggregate performance since 2003 with low-volatility program also shown separately. Note: due my institutional client going out of business last year, and for personal reasons, I took a year off off from trading even though I had top rated performance on risk-adjusted basis. Call or write for details. MansfieldCapital@Gmail.com, or 305-915-3307
QNBFS Daily Market Report September 18, 2017QNB Group
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The QSE Index declined 0.4% to close at 8,375.2. Losses were led by the Real Estate and Consumer Goods & Services indices, falling 1.1% and 0.9%, respectively.
One of Australia’s leading and incisive economists, Craig James explains how Australia’s performance has shown signs of strength and resilience compared to other economies and shows signs of recovery. He also delves into what is likely to happen and affect our economy into the future. As a seasoned professional within banking, finance and journalism over the last 27 years, Craig is currently Chief Equities Economist at Commonwealth Securities, where he interprets 'big picture' economic and financial trends for customers, clients and staff.
http://www.charteredaccountants.com.au
Swallow Financial Planning's presentation to clients explaining our investment strategy and our approach to investing for the long term.
The presentation briefly covers:
- why we believe in asset-backed investments;
- why asset classes perform differently;
- why we believe it’s essential to diversify your investments;
- why risk and reward are always related;
- why risk reduces over the long term and;
- why we prefer passive funds.
Mansfield Capital Brochure Ppt Mar2009 1110Trader1mm
Â
Mansfield Capital PowerPoint
presentation showing aggregate performance since 2003 with low-volatility program also shown separately. Note: due my institutional client going out of business last year, and for personal reasons, I took a year off off from trading even though I had top rated performance on risk-adjusted basis. Call or write for details. MansfieldCapital@Gmail.com, or 305-915-3307
QNBFS Daily Market Report September 18, 2017QNB Group
Â
The QSE Index declined 0.4% to close at 8,375.2. Losses were led by the Real Estate and Consumer Goods & Services indices, falling 1.1% and 0.9%, respectively.
Swallow Financial Planning's presentation to clients explaining our investment strategy and our approach to investing for the long term.
The presentation briefly covers:
- why we believe in asset-backed investments;
- why asset classes perform differently;
- why we believe it’s essential to diversify your investments;
- why risk and reward are always related;
- why risk reduces over the long term and;
- why we prefer passive funds.
2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlooksumguyatvt
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Uncertainty overshadows an improving economy. The economy continues to recover from the worse downturn since the Great Depression, which caused the S&P 500 to lose more than 1/2 of its value between October 2007 and March 2009. Although things are better now, this recovery has taken longer than many of us would have liked. As a result, I think we\’re still at least a little nervous about the future and uncertain about how to prepare our portfolios to face what may be down the road. In this presentation, I discuss what we at Wells Fargo Advisors see ahead for the economy, the domestic and international equity markets, fixed income investments, and commodities.
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
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Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange đź’± this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAYÂ you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
BYD SWOT Analysis and In-Depth Insights 2024.pptxmikemetalprod
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Indepth analysis of the BYD 2024
BYD (Build Your Dreams) is a Chinese automaker and battery manufacturer that has snowballed over the past two decades to become a significant player in electric vehicles and global clean energy technology.
This SWOT analysis examines BYD's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats as it competes in the fast-changing automotive and energy storage industries.
Founded in 1995 and headquartered in Shenzhen, BYD started as a battery company before expanding into automobiles in the early 2000s.
Initially manufacturing gasoline-powered vehicles, BYD focused on plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, leveraging its expertise in battery technology.
Today, BYD is the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer, delivering over 1.2 million electric cars globally. The company also produces electric buses, trucks, forklifts, and rail transit.
On the energy side, BYD is a major supplier of rechargeable batteries for cell phones, laptops, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems.
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
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If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
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The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
Â
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
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Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Â
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
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The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
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We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Â
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Â
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Â
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Â
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
@Pi_vendor_247
1. An Explanation Of
How To Invest For The Best Returns
16/01/2013 Investment Presentation 1/18
2. Within this presentation we will Explain:
• Why we believe clients should invest in asset backed investments if they want the best long term returns.
• Why some asset classes tend to outperform others.
• Why we believe it is essential to diversify your investments.
• Why risk and return are always related and why we believe it is imperative to keep within your comfort zone.
• We will show that “risk” reduces over time and we will explain why we prefer passive funds.
16/01/2013 Investment Presentation 2/18
3. Preamble
Throughout these notes we have tried wherever possible to use 20 years of data, starting in November 1992 and
finishing in November 2012.
In November 1992:
• Inflation was standing at 3.02%
• Bank base rate was at 6.88%
• The FTSE 100 was at 2,759
In November 2012:
• Inflation is at 2.98%
• Bank base rate is at 0.5%
• The FTSE 100 is at 5,867
Back in 1992 if you used 10 year GILTS to generate ÂŁ10,000 of income you would need (ignoring costs) ÂŁ120,192. To
achieve the same income using 10 year GILT yields in November 2012 you would need ÂŁ502,513. This is equivalent to
an annualised growth rate of 7.41%. Had the FTSE 100 grown by the same sum it would now be at 11,500.
(Bank of England, FTSE and Wren Research statistics).
16/01/2013 Investment Presentation 3/18
4. Why Invest in Assets Rather Than Cash?
Over the longer term assets tend to perform better than cash or inflation:
Asset Growth November 1992 to November 2012
900%
800%
FTSE 100
700%
International Equities
Total Growth
600%
Emerging Markets
500%
Property
400%
Global Bonds
300%
Cash
200%
RPI
100%
0%
Year
16/01/2013 Investment Presentation 4/18
5. Are Some Asset Classes More Volatile (Risky) Than Others?
Standard Deviation Chart November 1992 - November 2012
12%
10%
FTSE 100
Annualised Return
UK Small
8%
International Equities
6% Emerging Markets
Property
4%
Global Bonds
Cash
2%
0%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Annualised Standard Deviation
So UK Small has an average return above 10% but in any one year this varies between
-13.2% and + 33.6%. Cash averages at 4.4% but in any one year this varies between 2.2% and 6.6%.
16/01/2013 Investment Presentation 5/18
6. Asset Classes Tend to Outperform At Different Times
Empirical evidence has shown that if you combine asset classes the end result is greater than that of the composite parts. By
choosing uncorrelated assets you can achieve reasonable returns in most markets as when some assets are going
down, others normally rise.
12/1992 to 11/2012
A correlation of 1.0 indicates a perfect association, a correlation of 0 indicates no relation & a correlation of -1.0 is a perfect
disassociation
16/01/2013 Investment Presentation 6/18
7. Different Asset Classes For Different Risks
At Swallow Financial Planning we categorise clients into one of 7 risk categories. These are based on your FinaMetrica score
(1 to 100). If you want to know how we do this, please refer to our Risk Profile notes.
Investment Investor FIXED/ CASH PROPERTY EQUITIES TOTAL
option Type
UK Intl UK Intl UK International
Core Value Small Main Emerging
Markets Markets
1 Wary 90.00% 10.00% - 100.00%
2 Cautious 60.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 10.00% - 100.00%
3 Prudent 30.00% 20.00% 15.00% 5.00% 15.00% 5.00% 10.00% 100.00%
4 Balanced 15.00% 10.00% 15.00% 10.00% 15.00% 5.00% 5.00% 20.00% 5.00% 100.00%
5 Adventurous 5.00% 5.00% 15.00% 5.00% 20.00% 10.00% 5.00% 27.50% 7.50% 100.00%
6 Speculative - - 10.00% 5.00% 23.00% 10.00% 10.00% 27.00% 15.00% 100.00%
7 High Risk - 10.00% 20.00% 20.00% 30.00% 20.00% 100.00%
So the most cautious investor (i.e. with a FinaMetrica score of less than 20) is the wary one. On the other hand, the high risk
investor (with a score of 90 +) is “Gung Ho”. holding the most volatile assets.
16/01/2013 Investment Presentation 7/18
8. Combining Assets Creates Better Returns With Reduced Volatility
High Risk Portfolio v Asset Class November 1992 to November 2012
700%
600%
500% High Risk
Total Growth
FTSE 100
400%
UK Value
UK Small
300%
International Equities
200% Emerging Markets
100%
0%
Year
The High Risk portfolio contains the other asset classes but has beaten all but UK Value and UK Small
whilst generating far less volatile returns (total return over 20 years: 466%)
16/01/2013 Investment Presentation 8/18
9. Combining Assets Creates Better Returns With Reduced Volatility
Prudent Portfolio v Asset Class November 1992 to November 2012
900%
800%
700%
Prudent
600%
Total Growth
Global Bonds
500% Property
400% FTSE 100
UK Value
300%
International Equities
200%
100%
0%
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Again the Prudent portfolio contains the other asset classes but has beaten all but Property and UK Value
whilst generating far less volatile returns. (total return over 20 years: 340%)
16/01/2013 Investment Presentation 9/18
10. Different Asset Classes Reduce Risk
Risk, in investment terms, is usually different from what a lay person considers as risk. Most lay people consider a risk as the
risk of losing the physical value of their money. In investment terms is not the physical risk to the initial capital value, but
rather it is the risk the investment will perform better or worse than expected. This is also called the standard deviation to the
norm. If we look at the returns for the above asset classes over 20 years we have a table as follows:
As you can see, the use of a mixture of assets overall generates better returns at lower risk than does an equivalent asset
class.
16/01/2013 Investment Presentation 10/18
11. Better returns mean higher volatility
Highest and Lowest returns, Swallow Portfolios November 1992 to November 2012
50.00%
45.00%
40.00%
35.00%
30.00%
25.00%
20.00%
15.00% Highest
Return
10.00%
5.00% Lowest
-
( 5.00%) Average
( 10.00%)
( 15.00%)
( 20.00%)
( 25.00%)
( 30.00%)
( 35.00%)
( 40.00%)
Wary
High Risk
Cautious
Balanced
Prudent
Adventurous
Speculative
Portfolio
Wary has an average return of 4.8% with a best return of 8.6% and a worst return of 0.9%, whereas Speculative has an
average return of 10.2% however its best return was 36% and it’s worst return in a year was -35%. If you don’t like the
risk, choose a lower long term return.
16/01/2013 Investment Presentation 11/18
12. The Longer The Term The More Certain The Return
If you look at the best and worst returns from a selection of our recommended portfolios you see the following:
Best / Worst Returns
Annual: 12/1992 - 11/2012; Default Currency: GBP
Wary Prudent Balanced High Risk
If you don’t need your money for 10+ years you can affird to take more risk knowing the return is more likely to be as
expected.
16/01/2013 Investment Presentation 12/18
13. Passive Funds Will Generate Better Returns
We explain our approach to investments in “Our Approach to Investment Management” notes. In brief, we believe investment
returns in the future will (on average) reflect the inflation rate. If Inflation is low then an average passive fund with charges of
1% is bound to out perform an average managed fund with charges of 2.5%.
Active Versus Passive Investment: The Effect of Charges
ÂŁ30,000
ÂŁ25,000
No charges
Value
ÂŁ20,000 Passive
Active
ÂŁ15,000
ÂŁ10,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Years
ÂŁ10,000 at a gross annual return of 5% over 20 years will grow to ÂŁ26,500 with no charges, ÂŁ21,911 in a passive fund or
ÂŁ16,386 in an active fund meaning the active fund has to grow by 30% better than the index just to keep pace with it.
16/01/2013 Investment Presentation 13/18
14. Managed Funds Do Not Beat The Index
Sector Total Number of Funds producing above average returns for:
Funds
31st December 3 consecutive years 5 consecutive years
2007
Funds % Funds %
UK All Companies 346 38 10.98% 13 3.76%
UK Corporate Bond 121 15 12.40% 5 4.13%
North America 90 10 11.11% 1 1.11%
Europe (x UK ) 110 14 12.73% 3 2.73%
Pacific (x Japan ) 75 13 17.33% 2 2.67%
Japan 63 3 4.76% 0 -
(Source: Lipper Hindsight growth total return, default tax rate, in ÂŁ to 31/12/2007)
This schedule indicates the percentages of funds over 5 years which generate above average performances. With less than 5% of
managed funds achieving a consistent return better than average, why take the risk?
16/01/2013 Investment Presentation 14/18
15. Do Not Time The Market!
FTSE 100 UK Value UK Small International Equities Emerging Markets Property Global Bonds Cash
The Graham and Campbell study of 237 market timing newsletters showed that less than 25% of the “experts” predicted the
right outcome once, let alone consistently. If we cannot get the asset timing right, we believe clients should remain invested
in their optimum asset classes.
16/01/2013 Investment Presentation 15/18
16. Summary
Within this presentation we have tried to show in graphical form why we believe clients should have a diverse range of
investments set up according to how much they are prepared to see the capital value of their investments fluctuate in the short
term. We have also tried to explain why you should choose different sectors of the market which may well perform better than
others over the longer term. Finally we have touched on our reasons for using passive rather than active fund managers.
So looking forward, what might the circumstances we find ourselves in now suggest that the next 20 years might bring? Well
firstly fixed interest rate investments can only go one way. If the underlying interest rates now are effectively 0%, then the yield
over the next 20 years can only go up (as most institutions and individuals will not want to pay people to hold your money it
seems unlikely that interest rates will go significantly into the negative!). If yields go up, the capital value of fixed interest
securities (i.e. Government gilts and corporate bonds) will fall.
One could also argue that the long term outlook for commercial property is also somewhat subdued. If interest rates do rise
then there will be some narrowing of the very wide risk margins we see now (typically yield to value are in the region 8% to
10% at present) but eventually the capital values will fall. Against this, however, there is the influence of new build costs to
consider so there is always an element of inflation proofing over the longer term.
The value of an equity is the value of its dividends over the life of the share, so if the outlook for certain markets is uncertain
(i.e. the gradual lowering of western standards of living in comparison with those in developing countries) then one needs to be
circumspect over where one invests on a macro level at least.
But no one know what is going to happen! One thing we can be certain of is that if you want your investments to keep up with
and hopefully beat inflation you will have to accept risk.
Andrew Swallow January 2013.
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17. Disclosure and Fund Information
The graphs and schedules within this presentation would not have been possible without access to the Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd back tested
database of funds. The funds we have used were somewhat restricted due to the desire to show 20 years performance (many indices are only 5 to 10
years old). The specific indices we have used are:
Citigroup World Government Bond Index 1-30+ Years (hedged)
Dimensional Global Short-Dated Bond Index (gross of fees, hedged in )
Dimensional Small Cap Index
Dimensional Value Index
FTSE 100 Index
FTSE All-Share Index
MSCI Emerging Markets Index (gross div.)
MSCI World ex UK Index (gross div.)
S&P Global Property Index (gross div.)
S&P Global REIT Index (gross div.)
One-Month Treasury Bills
Retail Price Index
In addition we have used Bank of England data concerning interest rates and related issues. Wherever possible we have included dividend income in
the returns so as to compare all investments on a like for like basis.
•We have taken no account of charges (except in our comments re active fund managers) although clearly charges have a major effect on long term
performance.
•We have taken no account of taxation within our figures. At present in the UK capital gains tax is at a maximum of 28% and income tax is at a
maximum of 62%. This makes a colossal difference to the end return on your investments.
•Performance data shown represents past performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and current performance may be higher or
lower than the performance shown.
And finally, whilst we have tried our best to ensure that we have presented you with an accurate and well reasoned presentation any advice we give to
clients must be client specific and not of a generalised nature. E.&.O.E.
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