Rosa Weber. Circular migration between Finland and Sweden: Who moves abroad again? Presentation at TITA WP2 seminar 21.4.2016.

1. Circular migration between
Finland and Sweden: Who
moves abroad again?
Rosa Weber
TITA Workshop
Stockholm University
April 21st, 2016

2. Outline of the presentation
• Motivation for the study
• Aim of the paper
• Data
• Sample and methods
• Hazard functions of the risk of returning
and the risk of migrating for a second time
to Sweden
• The same ones delineating by language

3. Legal barriers to circular migration
• Circular migration has mainly been analysed in the
context of immigration to the U.S. thus far.
• Empirical studies have shown that U.S. policies
aimed at decreasing the number of immigrants in
the U.S. have been ineffective.
• Legal restrictions induce migrants to stay for a
longer time in the host country (i.e., Massey and
Espinosa 1997; Massey and Zenteno 1999;
Görlach 2015).

4. Win-win situation
• Many policy makers in the EC argue for open borders
to enhance temporary migration.
• Perception of circular migration as a win-win situation:
-Receiving countries and sending countries benefit
• However, we know that the decision to migrate for the
first time and to return cannot be explained solely by
economic factors. Therefore, the win-win situation
seems too simplistic to explain circular migration also.

5. The aim of this paper
• We know very little about circular migration in a setting
of free mobility up to now.
• Our aim in this paper is, therefore, to gain some
insight into the determinants of circular migration using
detailed linked Register Data.
• Specifically, we want to compare the risk of migrating
for the first time, the risk of returning and the risk of
engaging in circular migration with respect to the
effects of various background characteristics.

6. Focus of the presentation
• Comparison between
- Return migration: risk of first return to
Finland
- Circular migration:
risk of second migration to Sweden
a. since return
b. since first migration

7. Data
• linked Finnish and Swedish register data
- covering the years 1987-2005
- allow us to observe individuals in both
countries and thus to follow migrants across
national borders
- we observe circular migration at a high
level of accuracy and have information
from before and after the move

8. Sample and Methods
• Sample:
Finnish migrants arriving in Sweden for the first time
• Event history framework:
- Return migration: risk of first return to Finland
- Circular migration:
risk of second migration to Sweden
a. since return
b. since first migration

9. First migration from Finland to Sweden
• Return to Finland
- since first migration
• Second migration to Sweden
- a. since return
- b. since first migration

10. 0
.005
.01
.015
.02
.025
.03
.035
h(t)
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102108114120
Time since first migration from Finland (in months)
Smoothed hazard function Raw hazard
Linked Finnish and Swedish Register Data 1987-2005, start of process time: first migration from Finland
Hazard function of return

11. 0
.001.002.003.004.005.006.007
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102108114120
Time since return (in months)
Smoothed hazard function Raw hazard
Linked Finnish and Swedish Register Data 1987-2005, start of process time: return to Finland
Hazard function of second migration to Sweden

12. 0
.005
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102108114120
Time since first migration from Finland (in months)
Smoothed hazard function Raw hazard
Linked Finnish and Swedish Register Data 1987-2005, start of process time: first migration from Finland
Hazard function of second migration to Sweden

13. 0
.01.02
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102108114120
Time since first migration (in months)
Finnish Swedish
Linked Finnish and Swedish Register Data 1987-2005, start of process time: first migration from Finland
Hazard function of return by language

14. 0
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102108114120
Time since return (in months)
Finnish Swedish
Linked Finnish and Swedish Register Data 1987-2005, start of process time: return to Finland
Hazard function of second migration to Sweden by language

15. 0
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102108114120
Time since first migration (in months)
Finnish Swedish
Linked Finnish and Swedish Register Data 1987-2005, start of process time: first migration from Finland
Hazard function of second migration to Sweden by language

16. Conclusion
• We can already see important differences in the risk of returning and
the risk of migrating for a second time to Sweden by language.
• Indication of an affinity towards the country in which language is the
predominant one
- Swedish-speakers seem to be more likely to stay in Sweden
after the first move or to migrate to Sweden after a second
time.
- Finnish-speakers are more likely to return to Finland.
• We are still undecided whether to use time since return or time since
first migration as the process time when analysing the risk of
migrating for a second time to Sweden.

17. Bibliography
Görlach J-S (2015) “Borrowing Constraints, Migration
Selection, and the Dynamics of Return and Repeat Migration”,
Job Market Paper.
Massey DS, Espinosa KE (1997) “What’s driving Mexico-
U.S. migration? A theoretical, empirical and policy analysis”,
American Journal of Sociology 102: 939–99.
Massey DS, Zentenon R (1999) “The dynamics of mass
migration”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
96: 5328–35.